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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP betting gone mad! It’s at 4-7 with Ladbrokes in seat which CON won by 28.8% at GE2010

While going through some constituency odds this morning I came across the 4/7 that Ladbrokes have on UKIP in Boston & Skegness. This seemed extraordinary given what happened in the seat at the 2010 general election.

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wumper

well Mr Smithson you do not know this area very well, may i suggest a visit! as i can assure you that UKIP are "stitched on" in this seat

MikeSmithson

wumper said:

well Mr Smithson you do not know this area very well, may i suggest a visit! as i can assure you that UKIP are "stitched on" in this seat

What do you mean by "switched on"?

PClipp

Sewn up?

Indigo

FPT:

OblitusSumMe said:

I'm a Green and I don't want to take us back to the 1650s, and I can't think of any that I've met who do.

I would take a closer look at the policies. http://policy.greenparty.org.uk/

I dont know where to start with this one. How are you going to get anyone to invest in anything.

IN205 Democratically accountable industry: to their workforces, to the communities in which they operate and to wider society as a whole. Therefore, markets should have a role as servants to society (but not as owners and masters). Trades Unions, Cooperatives and community ownership all have a role in democratising control over production and socially-aware entrepreneurship can bring about benign change. International exchange of people, goods and services can be benign under appropriate governance.

It gets better, now we are going for reducing global production, that will be popular

IN210 The scale of industrial production worldwide must reduce if we are to live in the UK and globally within environmental limits. However, we do not support deindustrialisation as a result of globalisation, which is in effect just offshoring existing industries to lower wage and often lower environmental standards elsewhere.

IN628 We would require 40% of the board at all companies to be women.

ALL companies ? So in my company where the board is me, my brother and my wife I would need to take on another director just to meet the quota ?

And thats just a couple of highlights of the industrial policy, the Energy policies are much funnier. And if you think Cameron is having problem with a little tweaking in Europe, try this from the European policy

EU300 The Green Party is committed to the fundamental reconstitution of the current European Union, including its present institutions, in accordance with our Green vision for Europe (see Part 1).

CD13

I've thought for a year or two that Boston was a Kipper gain, and with Mark Simmonds running away, I'm even more sure. But I'll bet on them when the odds are better than odds-on.

Two reasons for my caution.
(1) Being from Boston originally, I return on a regular basis and seem to meet a lot of Kippery people. But that may be the pubs I frequent and the family I have.
(2) I don't put it past Ukip to cock it up from a position of near invincibility. They will have the media against them.

FPT, regarding the green/Ukip difference in perception. I think it's more that greens tend to be either young idealists who are given a lot of leeway, or middle class adults who tend to set the media message and are more articulate anyway.

anotherDave

Election Forcast.co.uk have Boston and Skegness as an 80% certain gain for UKIP.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/UKIP_seat_gains.html

spelkender

Odds look about right. I expect Tories to get a shock at my constituency Louth & Horncastle and Grimsby. Maybe most of Lincolnshire could go UKIP.

Athelwulf

Boston & Skegness. A poll in September had UKIP at 46% Con 26%

perdix

Prepare for Ed Milipede as PM.

Luckyguy1983

perdix said:

Prepare for Ed Milipede as PM.

If the Conservatives keep splitting the UKIP vote, then it's very possible sadly.

Athelwulf

spelkender said:

Odds look about right. I expect Tories to get a shock at my constituency Louth & Horncastle and Grimsby. Maybe most of Lincolnshire could go UKIP.

GE2015. In the last month UKIP odds (Ladbrokes) at Great Grimsby have shorted from 15-8 to 7-4 and at Louth & Horncastle from 3-1 to 5-2

MikeSmithson

Note on Boston & Skegness

I've taken the the post down because I was not aware of the UKIP-donor funded Survation poll in September. This wasn't, for some reason, in my database and I'd mistakenly assumed that there was nothing to base the betting on.