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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ongoing research into who the kippers actually are and whether they hurt LAB as much as CON
On Tuesday night I was at one of my most favourite events – the annual awards dinner of the Political Studies Association where this year leading political scientists Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford won a top prize for their study of the rise of UKIP “Revolt on the Right”.
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The Conservatives have continued Labour's open door immigration policy, and passed more powers to the EU.
There have been many predictions that UKIP support would fizzle, it's not happened yet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade
https://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/the-poujadist-movement-in-1956/
The success of Paris and the Jews fed Poujadism as the success of London and it's immigrants is feeding Faragism, the rejection of the modern world had it's domestic metropolitan focus. The addition of Brussels is an extra axis of distrust for UKIP , but it wouldn't really matter if the EU did not exist, they would invent it.
Faragism and Poujadism depend on
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogeyman
Edit to add: There's an optical illusion in election campaigns where because the media are mainly interested in areas of disagreement, the differences between Con and Lab look much bigger than they really are. Clearly this won't impress all of the current kippers, but you'd expect it to draw in some of them.
If that continues I think it's quite likely that the election campaign will be more about the potential kingmakers: UKIP/LD/Green/SNP/Plaid/DUP rather than Con/Lab. It gives the journos more opportunities for their coverage.
However, it would be good to have links to the Drs Goodwin and Ford piece so people here can read both sides, especially as their research is so fact based. Perhaps it has been put on pb previously.
Here is the book:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Revolt-Right-Explaining-Extremism-Democracy/dp/0415661501
and to Goodwin's website: http://www.matthewjgoodwin.com
A Guardian review:
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/apr/23/revolt-on-right-robert-ford-matthew-goodwin-review
The other thing that constantly strikes me are the polling graphs. The Conservatives have risen slightly, but UKIP's rise over time mirrors the corresponding slide in Labour's support.
A lot of the 2010-Con voters that moved to UKIP first moved to Labour or 'Don't Know'.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049
http://www.mediafire.com/view/ie7am41keaude8k/YouGov polls 12 months to 30 November 2014.jpg#
Within this period the 5-poll averaged party shares have changed as follows:
The Tory share has fallen 0.2 points from 31.8 to 31.6
The Labour share has fallen 5.8 points from 38.6 to 32.8
The LibDem share has fallen 2.8 points from 9.6 to 6.8
The UKIP share has risen 3.2 points from 13.2 to 16.8
Plumbers, of course, tend to drive white vans. ;-)
In 2009 here he is predicting "Yes the BNP could win in Europe"
"It would also be a mistake to assume, as Davies does, that supporters of the much weakened post-Kilroy UK Independence party (Ukip) will not defect to the BNP. Yes, Ukip supporters might stay home. However, analysis of elections in 2004 suggests strong linkages between Ukip and the BNP in the minds of voters. For example, voters who gave their first preference to the Ukip candidate were more likely than other voters to give their second preference to the BNP, while those giving their first preference to the BNP were more likely to give their second to Ukip"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/feb/12/bnp-far-right-eu
Do we get a Scottish thread today ?
(1) Cameron's speech and a temporary positive impact of about +4% on the Conservative poll score. Can he repeat this for polling day?
(2) Miliband's speech has led to a sustained loss of support of about 4% for Labour. Was Gordon Brown ever that bad?
(3) The Reckless defection has led to a sustained increase in support of about 3% for UKIP. This is similar to the Carswell defection. There is every reason to think that a further defection would be similarly beneficial. Will it happen?
Any chance of adding the Greens?
Presumably the SNP would account for a further couple of pp
But where is the rest leaking to? Some to Green, I suppose - but the rest to NOTA?
It would be helpful to see Green support too as I suspect they have risen well? Probably more than any other party in the country, though we don't hear it?
It's clear from Cameron's speech and the aftermath that such a party isn't Tory Labour or UKIP. I heard an interview with Tim Farron where he laid into Cameron's 'squalid' speech and he was impressive. I wanted to be able to vote for him. Labour and UKIP thought Cameron hadn't gone far enough.
People realize whoever wins the election it wont make any difference to them so might as well choose a party who share their values. It's worked against the Tories for years and still does.
As I watched Sol Campbell saying that Labour's 'mansion tax' was working' against ordinary blokes like him who have always paid their taxes and how badly affected he'd be with his £75,000,000 property portfolio. I wondered what the Tories could do to stop people like him being synonymous with "TORY" and turn their image round. It'll be very difficult
the scare them with evil tory story won't work as Cameron's such a wet fish - just keep Osborne off the screens.
In terms of spotting trends shouldn't we have a few more threads about the Labour slide? Isn't that a rather significant story, biased though I may be? For them to drop 6% in 12 months, or in other words to lose nearly 1 in 5 of their supporters, is serious.
Just struggled through the last thread. My conclusion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRNYqsMIbg0
On-topic:
Writing threads is not easy and one should not mock those whom are so afflicted with such a task. That said; despite the disasters of a comprehensive education I would ponder that most adults are now equipped with enough intelligence and free-thought* to determine what is best for themselves and their nearest-and-dearest: The days of tribal [sic] politics should be left back in the days before Westminster was ever broadcast on t'wireless....
* t'internet is a wondrous thing.
Or to pay true homage serve with lemon, olive oil and some chips !
Given that he has the charisma of a week old haddock, presumably people think he is doing an ok job
I have opened two copies of the chart I pasted below in Photoshop then vertically flipped one of these. I have then crudely cloned the flipped Ukip line onto the unflipped chart beneath the red and blue lines. Forget the values, but make of you will from the patterns...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/598apxpy97hm6pn/Temp.jpg#
Not sure what you are saying but having checked my numbers I see that I got one of the Ukip numbers wrong. It should read...
The UKIP share has risen 3.2 points from 13.2 to 16.4 (not 16.8)
Check the August/September 2013 archives. Basically: Never state something unless you can justify it.
* Gaijin may just be someone from Essex....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
I hope that the evidence is passed to the FBI. It will be pop-corn fan-tastic!
"back from punching up pensioners on black Friday Roger ? I hope the Burberry beach thong was worth it."
It'll always be one of my regrets that I couldn't make it up to the Ludlow Conservative association/Victoria's Secrets black Friday event last week.
By all accounts it was a hoot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaijin
FYI
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/115548/#Comment_115548
As does the target of my barb.
p.s. there was a good, albeit, depressing episode of 'On Your Farm' this morning about the difficulties of being a dairy farmer in rural Shropshire. Worth listening to if you have a moment.
looks like Sarkozy's back
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2014/11/29/01002-20141129ARTFIG00223-les-cinq-lecons-a-retenir-du-scrutin-pour-la-presidence-de-l-ump.php
And a happy St Andrew’s Day to all our PB brethren north of the border.
Given the low turnout in safe Labour seats one could think that Ukip could do quite well in such seats given the number of votes they are picking up from people who didn't vote last time.
I doubt Ukip will win many seats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them come a decent second in many safe Labour seats which offers them something to build on next time. For too long the voters in such seats have a had not had an alternative to Labour and perhaps Ukip will be seen as a viable alternative at the election after next.
" I'm passing through your neck of the woods on Friday, en route to Carlisle, but I rarely have cause to stop in that part of the world."
I've told Alanbrooke that four Conservative clubs on Ludlow High St is woefully inadaquate and if they want to attract passers by from the more enlightened parts of the country they need at least a fifth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc3Za3jfvJg
theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2012/jan/05/how-to-cook-perfect-cullen-skink
Good second places at the GE sounds as though it would be awful for UKIP in terms of influence, as it would not result in MPs. But if the were NOM, and there were an early GE after May 2015, it could be very significant.
Thanks to both for this. It's sad to see UKPR still defaulting to three parties, and Electoral Calculus is a bit of a joke now, sadly, though that doesn't stop BigJohnOwls tiresomely inputting and outputting the standard model results on here with every poll. Isn't it the old adage that we don't look for a charismatic bank manager? We want someone sure and steady, even a little dull, but trustworthy with our money?
But let me know if you ever leave the marches
Now I'm going back to bed; do not disturb.
#miniGordon
Mr. G, it certainly is brighter than expected in Yorkshire.
In angry news, I see some people think the equivalent to a Scottish Parliament for England is glorified councils and ridiculous city-regions. Surprised to read Dan Hannan seems to agree, and less so that Billy Bragg also wants such nonsense (apparently it'll protect England from the evil Tories).
Edited extra bit: slightly moderated my language above.
Thank God for dodgy bankers and the fines they generate, eh? Who needs a Mansion Tax......
Good time of year this , will soon be steak pie and then haggis season.
Really it does mean that national swing is not going to be a very good guide to local results - you need to look at the demography to get a better idea.
Steak pie sounds like plan though. :-)
Last night's meal was the 28-day matured sirloin from Lidl's. If you haven't discovered this secret yet, then do. Their 28-day rump is the best I've ever eaten, and I'm a fuss pot when it comes to beef. And the best thing? It's £3.50 for the 250g steak.
Kept it very simple: thick-cut chips, peas and fried red onions and wild mushrooms on the side. These days I only tend to go for a sauce if the meat lacks flavour. With the Lidl 28-day steak you really don't need anything but the gorgeous flavour.
Only when you consider that wider picture can you see that UKIP is good for the Tories, because the alternative could have been that Labour could have harnessed some of that void, and even if it was only a small fraction of UKIP support, it would put them well ahead. UKIP is the perfect protest party, taking the issue of Europe that has given Britain a raw deal, but as voters learn that it is a libertarian party, further to the right of the Conservatives and not the party of the ordinary people, as widely perceived, some of that support will fall off and make Cameron look relatively more moderate.
Magnificent.
1. I think there is a strong element of "Shy Kipper" in some of these polls, but is probably more disproportionately based amongst the most disadvantaged. Your successful plumber will have no problem saying they will vote UKIP but their older / poorer peer might. Having heard left, right and centre that, if you vote UKIP, you have something wrong with you may discourage the less self-confident to express their view.
2. I still do not know why people are treating the polls - and particularly the Labour shares - as gospel. When push has come to shove i(I.e. When people vote), Labour's vote is almost invariably lower than its poll share. And the trend line for Labour is worrying - as time goes on, their performance is getting weaker (H and M, Labour-leaning Strood winning Rochester for UKIP etc.) Local by-election results say the same thing: labour is not performing.
3. Anecdotally, there is starting to be a strong Anyone But Labour momentum building in many parts of the North, where the local councils are felt to be too-PC, taking voters for granted etc. Reckon that will be a big factor next year.
Ps anyone know where I can get odds for Nigel Farage standing against Ed Miliband in Doncaster North? It would gain him huge publicity, put Labour on the back front and hamper Ed's ability to get out there.
On the same off-topic St Andrews theme, it looks as if most Scots will be dissatisfied with the Smith Commission (especially if it loses anything getting through Westminster):
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/most-scots-want-more-powers-than-smith-provides.25999292