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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on a great PB gathering at Dirty Dicks and the Saturda
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on a great PB gathering at Dirty Dicks and the Saturday night rolling polling blog
Thanks Marf for capturing the spirit of last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in the City of London. This was the best attended PB event that we’ve ever had and it was great to compare notes and betting strategies with fellow PBers.
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Snp 5 Greens 4
Many thanks to the PBers who bought me drinks last night.
Many thanks to Neil for the pre DD cocktails, the venue being a former public toilet that Oscar Wilde was arrested at for Cottaging.
Good to be able to put a few more faces to names too. Thanks to everybody who supported the event.
TSE's figures wrong. You always quote changes on the last published polls from that pollster which we had on PB on Tuesday.What UKIP need to cause havoc for her, and Labour, in May 2015 is a candidate from a working class background, whose family hail from Islington back when it was a dump, who supports the local football team, is comfortable hanging out in trendy Upper St or "vibrant" Pentonville Rd. Someone who has worked in the City, in Brighton, lived in North London...
100/1 Get on
It was a privilege to meet Marf too, who was totally charming.
All the same it was nice to meet Sunil the little master, Nino the Penfold lookalike, and Hunchman who I hadn't met previously, as well as Pulpstar who I somehow thought I had met before, but hadn't!
After tonight's Opinium, are we likely to see the Tories in the 20s before long ? Will Labour be joining them ?
But you seemed to remind of Edward Burns, wot played the soldier who nearly mutinied against Tom Hanks in "Saving Private Ryan"
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_18_11_2014.pdf
"New UKIP MP Mark Reckless has said he feels "a bit sore" about the way he "came out of" controversy over his party's policy on EU migrants.
He was criticised after implying that migrants might have to leave after a "transitional period" if the UK left the EU - which Nigel Farage denied.
Mr Reckless told the Times the UKIP leader had changed the party's policy."
Will Farage have to start conversing with his MPs now, or is UKIP policy whatever Nigel says it is?
He should have waited at least a few days.
I had to leave to rendezvous with my wife at Waterloo; we both live in rural Hampshire. Time-keeping isn't her strong suit, though, so I ended up sitting in the pub for 40 minutes nursing a Peroni waiting for her.
We didn't actually get home until midnight.
Scottish Westminster Poll (Survation):
SNP - 46%
LAB - 24%
CON - 17%
LDEM - 6%
Still if it saves Ed, so be it
By the way, who's the poodle?
In part SLABs demise must be catch up for the static position of 2010. It will be interesting to see how popular Sturgeon is when she is on the box as FM continuously.
The poll above adds to 93%. Were the others Green, kipper or Socialist? If so are there localised areas of support for them?
http://labourlist.org/2014/11/its-ukip-that-offends-working-class-sentiment/
parenthetical comment: number 400 and time for a drink.
National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
CON - 33% (-1)
LAB - 33% (-)
UKIP - 16% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-)
GRN - 6% (-)
#sundaytimes #yougov Looking ahead 52% of UKIP voters say they're certain to vote Ukip in election, same as Tories but less certain than Lab
charles hymas @charleshymas
#sundaytimes #yougov 15% of current UKIP voters rate their chances of voting Labour come the general election at 5/10 or more
charles hymas@charleshymas
#sundaytimes#yougov 28% of UKIP voters rate chance of voting Tory at 5/10 or more.If Ukip decline Tories are a little more likely to benefit
2/3rds of voters going for the big two.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/gordon-brown-set-resign-within-4676956
@Khyberman: #MilibandPointAndTax http://t.co/iKmKoGCo45
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/22/nigel-farage-is-a-coward-and-cameron-and-miliband-are-too-gutless
Hmm. Had the Left not regarded UKIP as such a jolly jape when they only appeared to be taking votes off the Tories I might have a bit more sympathy.
#Thanx be2ed.
By the way we are talking all the time about UKIP but in Ireland they are going through something of a poll tax moment over water taxation, 2 weeks ago the government was afraid of a trotskyite revolution:
https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/a-td-writes-on-trotskyists-water-charges-bin-charges-this-and-that/
"Bliss was it that Saturday to be on the march. But to be in the Trotskyist Vanguard was very heaven. The people had risen. From the factories and the farms they came in their thousands. Revolution was in the air. The government was on the run and the national broadcaster was acting as recruiting sergeant."
And today another poll another hit for the irish government:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2845653/Irish-PMs-party-popularity-hit-water-levy-protests-poll.html
So if (IF) UKIP deflates along those lines then the 33/33 result will become 35/37.
Not much of a fuss since Labour would still be largest party with that result.
I never really thought Rochester would have much impact on anyone outside. It's too dark, too close to Christmas and there are just too many other distractions, not least Strictly, X-factor and I'm a Celebrity, to make a local by election in a distant corner of the Isles of much interest. The fact that the result was slightly nondescript in some ways (no offence to kippers) only fuels that feeling.
It's all MoE and little change, and probably will remain so now until February.
The Tories however are unlikely to get 37% but equally Labour can only dream of 35%. It seems much more likely that they will be lucky to outperform 2010.
You'd then need to add on Yougov's level of error compared to real elections with the two parties.
#CameronMustGo is the no. 1 on Twitter right now