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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin th

SystemSystem Posts: 11,695
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls

Ukip leader Nigel Farage confident after polls close in Rochester and Strood by-election http://t.co/xcFUuP1xrG pic.twitter.com/tt7wnpqOrW

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    Given the turnout of 50.6%, if UKIP don't win very handsomely I made a complete mess of the primary return puzzle
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Second.. like a good Tory!
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Sky reporting that only around 50% turned out for the local election.




    Meanwhile the news is swamped with Thornburys resignation.


    Well you know... You just do.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    isam said:

    Given the turnout of 50.6%, if UKIP don't win very handsomely I made a complete mess of the primary return puzzle

    3000 majority mid range forecast, 2 to 4 either way per kellner
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Isam what we're your odds on tory win in may??? 11/10?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Blast, the camera is not at the right angle to see clearly the voting tallies.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sky News reports they expect the declaration at around 4am.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RobD said:

    Second.. like a good Tory!

    Gentlemen
    Always come second
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    isam said:

    Given the turnout of 50.6%, if UKIP don't win very handsomely I made a complete mess of the primary return puzzle

    3000 majority mid range forecast, 2 to 4 either way per kellner
    Hmm yes.... looks like I naused this one

    I thought that as only 7.5% of the electorate returned the primary, if turnout was 50% it would be very difficult for the Tories to beat 30%

    Grrr
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,960
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Isam what we're your odds on tory win in may??? 11/10?

    Yes, want to bet?
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    Labour on 17% ? ........ WOW, that in relative terms would be the result of the night.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,960
    Right see you all tommorow
  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    It seems that the LibDems did themslves more harm than good by standing, an absolutely dreadful result for them, losing all credibily.
    Come back Martin Day, all is forgiven!
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    isam said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    isam said:

    Given the turnout of 50.6%, if UKIP don't win very handsomely I made a complete mess of the primary return puzzle

    3000 majority mid range forecast, 2 to 4 either way per kellner
    Hmm yes.... looks like I naused this one

    I thought that as only 7.5% of the electorate returned the primary, if turnout was 50% it would be very difficult for the Tories to beat 30%

    Grrr
    Probably but off to bed now. Dreaming of kelly pulling it off...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scrapheap_as_was said:



    Probably but off to bed now. Dreaming of kelly pulling it off...

    Easy now ;)
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How many parties will the LDs beat ?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Go on, I'll have a 100 quid, so I win 110 when reckless loses his seat in may.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Sums front page ireally bad for Ed. a total own goal FFS


    https://mobile.twitter.com/suttonnick/status/535560457785196544/photo/1
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Finally I had a peek of a few minutes of a second of the voter piles on TV, Reckless's pile I think is greater by about 1/4 more than Tolhurst.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher talking on SKY about 40 LibDem seats...
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    'Absolute chaos' scenarios being discussed....
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher talking on SKY about 40 LibDem seats...

    On Monster Raving Loony Party Planet.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    RodCrosby said:

    Thrasher talking on SKY about 40 LibDem seats...

    Councillors?

    I think they can get a few more than 40.

    MPs?

    Feels like wishful thinking at the moment.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher: "Certainly believe there will be another hung parliament, but not another coalition; confidence and supply..."
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,960
    I think PB has had a bit of a collective stinker on turnout, primary -> votes etc on this election tbh.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Father Christmas arrives at the count. Handing out LD turkeys, IIUC....
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    "It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls"

    Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.

    The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority as both Labour and Ukip start sliding in the polls and Tory swing back gets underway.. Especially as Ed Miliband has yet again missed another key opportunity to hit back at either of his main opponents on the streets of Britain in an attempt to fight the corner of the Labour party and make the case for electing him and his party to govern the country.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Beeb showing my bar chart similar to mine :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/523094299005956097/photo/1

  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The BBC’s Chris Mason says he’s heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000. They’re very similar to the ones I’ve had.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    fitalass said:

    "It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls"

    Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.

    The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority as both Labour and Ukip start sliding in the polls and Tory swing back gets underway.. Especially as Ed Miliband has yet again missed another key opportunity to hit back at either of his main opponents on the streets of Britain in an attempt to fight the corner of the Labour party and make the case for electing him and his party to govern the country.

    Are you drunk?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Labour are as low as 10% it probably means a fair number of their usual supporters have voted Conservative to stop UKIP, as happened in Newark.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,960
    These panelists are completely politically illiterate. SNP-Labour coalition ?!
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Verification stage at R&S...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    old_labour said:

    The BBC’s Chris Mason says he’s heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000. They’re very similar to the ones I’ve had.

    Those figures are all from the same source I think. So not particularly reliable.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    5am result. 6 hrs behind here - will I be here by myself?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    old_labour said:

    The BBC’s Chris Mason says he’s heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000. They’re very similar to the ones I’ve had.

    Goodness, I'd actually be pleased with that for Labour....which is rather depressing in itself.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Oh great declaration expected now around 5am.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    old_labour said:

    The BBC’s Chris Mason says he’s heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000. They’re very similar to the ones I’ve had.

    Those figures are all from the same source I think. So not particularly reliable.
    We first read about it around 10pm.
  • Options
    StickytrollStickytroll Posts: 30
    TGOHF said:

    5am result. 6 hrs behind here - will I be here by myself?

    11 hours ahead here - results should coincide with beer o'clock at work.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    Oh great declaration expected now around 5am.

    Roughly the same time as the Rochester declaration in 2010.

    See this video at 28 secs:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0fQL9lJRYs
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TGOHF said:

    5am result. 6 hrs behind here - will I be here by myself?

    May get the train home and continue from there.. not going to wait at work for another 3 hours ;)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    While waiting for the results, I've added all the Green polling values which were recently added onto the wiki list:

    http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited November 2014
    You are asking me if I am drunk while Farage has been floating around Rochester for the last few hours, brave move to play the woman rather than the nailed on winner of that contest!! Any victory in the small single figures for Reckless and Ukip will be overturned at the next GE. The protest vote will have turned out to be a damp squib instead of a real vote for change. Lord Ashcroft did us all a favour when he asked that 2nd question on voting intentions at the next GE in his Rochester by-election poll. If Reckless/Ukip fail to out perform their polling rating they are screwed.

    You should read and take note of AndJS's last post as well before trying to play the poster rather than the ball again on this issue. If Labour or Libdem voters in this seat realise that the best way to get rid a Reckless/Ukip MP is voting Conservative at the next GE, then expect to see some tactical voting that might be replicated elsewhere as a result. Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have both deliberately left a vacuum in this seat as the main opposition parties, they have done the same elsewhere leaving his own supporters no option but to go Conservative rather than Labour or Libdem to avoid electing a UKIP MP. That is going to be the most powerful narrative which comes out of this by-election.
    Speedy said:

    fitalass said:

    "It’s looking like a UKIP victory but by a tighter margin than any of the polls"

    Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.

    The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority as both Labour and Ukip start sliding in the polls and Tory swing back gets underway.. Especially as Ed Miliband has yet again missed another key opportunity to hit back at either of his main opponents on the streets of Britain in an attempt to fight the corner of the Labour party and make the case for electing him and his party to govern the country.

    Are you drunk?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Oh great declaration expected now around 5am.

    Same time as the Rochester declaration in 2010.
    I had enough, especially with the frustration about people in front of the camera preventing me seeing the vote piles.
    Goodnight.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,960
    Hmm Reckon I'll be down about £45 on this by election.

    Hey ho others will be done for more !
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,960
    OTOH I can see that snow hitting the US saving my oil bet...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,960
    Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Sky News are live streaming their coverage on this page:
    http://news.sky.com/story/1377370/live-updates-rochester-by-election-results

    I don't know why Betfair have suspended their market:
    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325
    Pulpstar said:

    Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

    Yeah, but it's not an election from which you can draw much of an inference on Con/Lab swings, Pulpstar.

    Labour didn't turn up; Conservatives fought hard, certainly in the early part of the campaign. The election was all about Con/UKIP. We'll see soon who won that battle.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

    Those who say Ukip not delivering same lead as Clacton shd look at demography. Clacton no.1 most Ukip-friendly seat, Rochester & Strood 271"

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GoodwinMJ
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

    Yeah, but it's not an election from which you can draw much of an inference on Con/Lab swings, Pulpstar.

    Labour didn't turn up; Conservatives fought hard, certainly in the early part of the campaign. The election was all about Con/UKIP. We'll see soon who won that battle.
    Well, we know UKIP has won the battle.

    However, if it really is just a 6-7% lead, then the Conservatives - come next May - will be favourites to retain the seat.

    And my bets with you and isam will look reasonably smart.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    AndyJS said:

    "Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

    Those who say Ukip not delivering same lead as Clacton shd look at demography. Clacton no.1 most Ukip-friendly seat, Rochester & Strood 271"

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GoodwinMJ

    And Carswell - frankly - a better regarded local MP. (Not saying that Reckless is not well regarded, just that Carswell was very well regarded.)
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325
    rcs1000 said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Final thought - if the 35/17 split is accurate thats a swing from Con to Lab of just 1%.

    Yeah, but it's not an election from which you can draw much of an inference on Con/Lab swings, Pulpstar.

    Labour didn't turn up; Conservatives fought hard, certainly in the early part of the campaign. The election was all about Con/UKIP. We'll see soon who won that battle.
    Well, we know UKIP has won the battle.

    However, if it really is just a 6-7% lead, then the Conservatives - come next May - will be favourites to retain the seat.

    And my bets with you and isam will look reasonably smart.
    Yes, it will be interesting to see how the bookies chalk it up after tonite. If it is 6-7%, I would expect Reckless to be second favorite.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Clever spin from Tories focusing on the gap between UKIP and Con.

    In fact it looks like UKIP have done about as well as the polls indicated in terms of vote share, but the gap is smaller because Labour are lower and the Tories are higher. The first survey put Labour as high as 25% IIRC.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    AndyJS said:

    Clever spin from Tories focusing on the gap between UKIP and Con.

    In fact it looks like UKIP have done about as well as the polls indicated in terms of vote share, but the gap is smaller because Labour are lower and the Tories are higher. The first survey put Labour as high as 25% IIRC.

    TBF, it's not just spin. This seat is all about the Conservative-UKIP spread. What's fascinating is that you're going to see 80% of the vote split between UKIP and the Conservatives, which tells you that a lot of people have switched allegiance. It should make for a very interesting 2015.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    From VoteUK forum:

    MEDWAY Peninsula

    UKIP gain from Conservative

    Christopher Glenn Irvine (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2,850
    Ronald Philip Sands (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,965
    Peter John Tungate (Labour Party) 716
    Clive Bryn Malcolm Gregory (Green Party) 314
    Christopher Sams (Liberal Democrat) 60

    UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3)
    Con: 33.3% (-20.9)
    Lab: 12.1% (-8.6)
    Grn: 5.3% (-2.1)
    LD: 1.0% (-5.3)
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Tory's are going to get the dockside hooker treatment tonight.

    However .........

    it really does take some extra special talent for the LOTO ensure that all major news channels are covering a white van somewhere n wherever it is.

    Ed is truly a dud, sorry ....he just is

    ABL



  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Since they say it's only 15 minutes they say from the declaration, I couldn't stay away.
    I'm back.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865


    Are you drunk?



    Fittalass

    Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The UKIP lady got into hot water on the BBC a minute back. She withdrew her "corruption" charges 30 seconds later.

    So, UKIP's views last about that long !
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    From VoteUK forum:

    MEDWAY Peninsula

    UKIP gain from Conservative

    Christopher Glenn Irvine (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2,850
    Ronald Philip Sands (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,965
    Peter John Tungate (Labour Party) 716
    Clive Bryn Malcolm Gregory (Green Party) 314
    Christopher Sams (Liberal Democrat) 60

    UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3)
    Con: 33.3% (-20.9)
    Lab: 12.1% (-8.6)
    Grn: 5.3% (-2.1)
    LD: 1.0% (-5.3)

    That's a majority of 900 with a turnout just bellow 6000 votes.
    If that result is replicated elsewhere in Rochester with a turnout of 40000 that could be a UKIP majority of around 6000.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Greens appear to have given up on the deposit


    Sky news
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited November 2014
    Yep, after nearly a decade posting on this site, and you then get crap like this from Ukip supporters. I think I was one of the first regular female posters on the site back then, a long time before this idiot appeared on the site. Its now really sad that the so few lassies post here at all, Tim didn't like strong centre right women posters on PB, and now the Ukip supporters really don't like those same centre right women totally turned off by Ukip or Farage. But the real irony this week was Roger trying to disown our own Cyclefree as a female voter of the left. Seriously boys, get a fecking grip, no party is going to win the next GE without us. And as we say in Scotland, if you don't start taking our views seriously, it really will be a case of your teas out in the polls for Ukip and Labour!!
    Moses_ said:





    Fittalass

    Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again



  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Sky news

    Result in around 10 mins

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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Labour vote around 10% (Sky news)

    Keep in mind no results yet
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News projection using Rochester polls: Farage heading for Downing Street with a majority of 508 seats.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Oh great Dan Hodges in Rochester.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Clever spin from Tories focusing on the gap between UKIP and Con.

    In fact it looks like UKIP have done about as well as the polls indicated in terms of vote share, but the gap is smaller because Labour are lower and the Tories are higher. The first survey put Labour as high as 25% IIRC.

    Disastrous result for Labour, but unsurprising given their minority-interest candidate-automaton. No doubt she'll be offered a safe seat in compensation for her drubbing...
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    fitalass said:

    Yep, after nearly a decade posting on this site, and you then get crap like this from Ukip supporters. I think I was one of the first regular female posters on the site back then, a long time before this idiot appeared on the site. Its now really sad that the so few lassies post here at all, Tim didn't like strong centre right women posters on PB, and now the Ukip supporters really don't like those same centre right women totally turned off by Ukip or Farage. But the real irony this week was Roger trying to disown our own Cyclefree as a female voter of the left. Seriously boys, get a fecking grip, no party is going to win the next GE without us. And as we say in Scotland, if you don't start taking our views seriously, it really will be a case of your teas out in the polls for Ukip and Labour!!

    Moses_ said:





    Fittalass

    Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again



    There is a dearth of female posters on the site. Sorry I do remember Wee Timmy was one of the worse to force you away. It is an embarrassment to this day how he was allowed to abuse and bully yet remain a poster is one of this conundrums of life

    Keep in mind of course he remains the only person that i know off to have received a cyber ASBO due to his treatment off Plato.

    Hey Ho not my site etc etc ............ Exit is over there etc

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Moses_ said:

    Greens appear to have given up on the deposit


    Sky news

    Great. Can we now all be sensible, and give up on the Greens?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labkur single figures will be hilarious..
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News projection using Rochester polls: Farage heading for Downing Street with a majority of 508 seats.


    Think you misheard

    Taxi to Downing St at £50.80p

    ;-)
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Declaration delayed, again.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Nigel Farage hinting about John Baron:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage hints that an MP "local" to Rochester and Strood may be the next defector they recruit
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Surely Labour can get at least 15%?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    Nigel Farage hinting about John Baron:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage hints that an MP "local" to Rochester and Strood may be the next defector they recruit

    Does John Baron have connections to Rochester?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Oh I had enough, this time I'm going to bed.
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    Counting in Rochester and Strood has stopped. 'Something' is happening.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Speedy said:

    Nigel Farage hinting about John Baron:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage hints that an MP "local" to Rochester and Strood may be the next defector they recruit

    Another male pale and stale recruit ?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Nigel Farage hinting about John Baron:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage hints that an MP "local" to Rochester and Strood may be the next defector they recruit

    Does John Baron have connections to Rochester?
    Basildon is not far away.
    Though Adam Holloway is right next to Rochester.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    Speedy said:

    Nigel Farage hinting about John Baron:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage hints that an MP "local" to Rochester and Strood may be the next defector they recruit

    Another male pale and stale recruit ?
    Like about 40% of the population?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Surely Labour can get at least 15%?

    Not if the electors blow a raspberry for their candidate...

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Informal declaration...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,134
    UKIP now really needs a Labour defector. I wonder if the true legacy of Emily might be to tip one over the edge? That would be hilarious....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Candidates gathering for an "informal sharing". It will take five minutes.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Absolutely agree, its the reason my other half stop visiting or posting on this site. He finally got a PB ASBO towards me, far too little and far too late. But I noticed that OGH still follows him in one of his guises on twitter, and its one of the guises that I have personally had no choice but to block on my own twitter feed.
    Moses_ said:

    fitalass said:

    Yep, after nearly a decade posting on this site, and you then get crap like this from Ukip supporters. I think I was one of the first regular female posters on the site back then, a long time before this idiot appeared on the site. Its now really sad that the so few lassies post here at all, Tim didn't like strong centre right women posters on PB, and now the Ukip supporters really don't like those same centre right women totally turned off by Ukip or Farage. But the real irony this week was Roger trying to disown our own Cyclefree as a female voter of the left. Seriously boys, get a fecking grip, no party is going to win the next GE without us. And as we say in Scotland, if you don't start taking our views seriously, it really will be a case of your teas out in the polls for Ukip and Labour!!

    Moses_ said:





    Fittalass

    Best you don't respond its the bigot woman line again

    There is a dearth of female posters on the site. Sorry I do remember Wee Timmy was one of the worse to force you away. It is an embarrassment to this day how he was allowed to abuse and bully yet remain a poster is one of this conundrums of life

    Keep in mind of course he remains the only person that i know off to have received a cyber ASBO due to his treatment off Plato.

    Hey Ho not my site etc etc ............ Exit is over there etc



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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    here we go...
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The Labour candidate is tiny.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    Lib Dems 349 - hilarious.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    "TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? Fitalass, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP 16,867
    Con 13,947
    Lab 6,713
    Green 1,692
    LD 349
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sub 3k.

    Reckless toast in May.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I make it 1.3% swing to Labour...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Way to go, UKIP! Congrats to Reckless!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,134
    The Traitorous Pig-Dog Party have their second MP.

    Until May. Under 3,000 majority won't be enough to hang on, but he will suck up a lot of UKIP resources vainly trying to get back in.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    TGOHF said:

    Sub 3k.

    Reckless toast in May.

    Depends on the candidate.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Reckless trying to claim to be a radical is ludicrous. He remains conservative at heart - just a small-minded one.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited November 2014
    Less than a 3K majority, Ouch, bye bye Reckless at the next GE..... Cameron and the Conservatives were right to throw the kitchen sink at this by-election. Its coming home at the next GE.
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? Fitalass, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MarqueeMark said:

    The Traitorous Pig-Dog Party have their second MP.

    Until May. Under 3,000 majority won't be enough to hang on, but he will suck up a lot of UKIP resources vainly trying to get back in.

    Are you assuming the Conservatives are going to be popular in May?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MarqueeMark said:

    The Traitorous Pig-Dog Party have their second MP.

    Until May. Under 3,000 majority won't be enough to hang on, but he will suck up a lot of UKIP resources vainly trying to get back in.

    Suicide move - was an easy 5 more years had he stayed blue. What a clown.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    anotherDave said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The Traitorous Pig-Dog Party have their second MP.

    Until May. Under 3,000 majority won't be enough to hang on, but he will suck up a lot of UKIP resources vainly trying to get back in.

    Are you assuming the Conservatives are going to be popular in May?
    As a potential party of government, they are going to be more popular than any other party with a realistic chance of seizing power
This discussion has been closed.