Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets
I like the SPIN spread market. If you think UKIP will secure more than 44.5% of the vote and bet £10 a unit then you win that amount for each percentage point above that level that they achieve. Your risk losing on the same formula for every 1% point they get below 44.5%
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I WAS FIRST but it said "Discussion ID required", system clearly fixed in favour of insiders. I have written to my MP about this.
I didn't say 'similar' the study did and I provided a link.
If you are interested read the study, it is poor practice to copy and paste whole articles.
Not Ed's safe word.
http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/11/17/seats-could-be-left-vacant-if-more-tory-mps-defect-to-ukip-befor/
Vote Tory or your house price will fall.
Vote Tory or the non-Tory gets in.
Vote Tory we have a local woman.
Vote Tory we haven't been to Oxford.
Vote Tory the PM says so.
Vote Tory please we beg you!
And now: Vote Tory or once we leave the EU, EU migrants would need a visa or residence permit like all the other immigrants.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/neither-the-tories-nor-ukip-deserve-to-win-the-rochester-by-election/
And I too have had the discussion ID required problem in the past.
If the Tory party wasn't so desperate no one would have made it an issue in the press, but as usual with last ditch attempts they "attack first think later" as was with house prices and the unspecified instability line from the PM.
It's not my fault you can't keep up with my pace.
BNP ? UKIP ?
Dave: Ed you're so crap, you got your bottom spanked by pop a star and the polls say you're crap, more people believe in the Loch Ness monster than believe you are a good leader, the bad news for Labour, Ed Miliband really does exist.
"12:16 Snap PMQs verdict: If you swallowed some of the reporting of Miliband’s Myleee Klass moment, I suppose you might be impressed by Cameron’s rubbishing of the Labour leader, but Cameron was particularly weak on policy today and Miliband comfortably won on substance."
Disastrous actually.
Dave answers with pre-prepared jokes about Ed is Crap and doesnt answer any of the questions.
On the NHS he actually did ok pointing out the extra money, nurses, and doctors and what a mess Wales was. Ed pointed to local problems as the opposition always do.
On the Mansion tax he pointed out that the rich are paying a lot more stamp duty, more tax generally and were paying more for empty properties.
The only point Ed made that had any substance was the claim that victims of domestic violence were somehow being affected by the bedroom tax although it was not immediately clear how.
The prime minister, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, Labour’s Ed Miliband, Ukip’s Farage and the Green’s Natalie Bennett will appear on their own and be quizzed in front of studio audiences in the five debates taking place between 26 November and 16 December.
The Leaders Live discussions have been organised by Bite the Ballot, which campaigns for young people to vote, ITV News and Bite News. They will be presented by Rick Edwards, host of BBC3’s current affairs discussion show Free Speech, and streamed live by ITV News, Bite News and on the Leaders Live website.
The audience will include singer Eliza Doolittle, Bite News owner Jamal Edwards and influential YouTubers, including Hannah Witton and Harry Hitchens.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/19/itv-news-party-leaders-live
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 11m11 minutes ago
Is Myleene Klass getting cross really the best Cameron has got?! #pmqs
"“Most people I know here have worked hard their lives, played by the rules and paid their fair share, but we sometimes struggle to access the services we need because of uncontrolled immigration. Others don’t feel safe walking down the high street of our town."
Got your outrage going, Mr. Eagles? The quote is, I am told, from the Conservative candidate in the Rochester and Strood by-election. Miss Tolhurst is also it would appear deeply concerned about the effects uncontrolled immigration has had on the Constituency,
“I wanted to bring the prime minister to this constituency to show him that uncontrolled immigration has hurt this area. I told him we need action, not just talk.”
I don't know about you but that such sentiments are being expressed by the Conservative Party candidate does make me wonder.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/neither-the-tories-nor-ukip-deserve-to-win-the-rochester-by-election/
@IsabelHardman · 10m 10 minutes ago
Is Myleene Klass getting cross really the best Cameron has got?! #pmqs
I find it actually makes me quite sad.
1) why is the abusive partner not behind bars?
2) why is the abused partner not moved to a new area to protect her safety?
And for that matter, how do you construct a panic room in the average council property?
But they will of course not bother to register and find out that you can't phone a five digit number to vote Farage out the Big Brother house.
A poor, poor Prime Minister. Getting embarrassing.
Ed asked why is Mansion tax unfair when bedroom tax isnt doesnt get an answer
Ed asks why has the cancer target been missed for 3 quarters running doesnt get an answer
Ed asks why is panic room classed as a spare bedroom doesnt get an answer
Labour holed below the line.
Same with the Empty Room Handout (private sector anomaly), same with NHS (Wales)
Have the Tory party had to issue a clarification to say she wasn't in favour of repatriation like UKIP had to do with the pig dog traitor?
Does this sound like your average council house bedroom to you?
Be interesting to see which party is running the council in question.
PMQs has become completely, utterly pointless. But for what it's worth, I think DC needs to watch the rudeness
i) Why is it OK for Private Sector tenants, but not for public sector tenants?
ii) How fund money for the NHS if costs of the benefits bill keep rising?
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/18/panic-room-woman-challenges-bedroom-tax
“This is exactly why we have made £345m available to councils to help vulnerable people. We understand the council have awarded a payment to make up a shortfall in rent.”
The implication of the Guardian story is that over 4000 such reinforced panic rooms have been fitted across the country, seems a little high since no one have ever heard of such before here.
'This article was amended on Wednesday 19 November to add a quote from a DWP spokesman.'
Non story?
Wonder if Cameron will be too busy to crack Ed is Crap jokes by the time we meet?
How Labour supporters claim the moral high ground and somehow manage to keep a straight face is a never-ending mystery to me.
It's a 'spare' room that has been reinforced and adapted by the police to be secure. This isn't just someone saying they are a bit scared - this is a woman who was raped and beaten by her ex-partner who the police judge to be at substantial risk.
The Judicial Review case is being defended by the DWP, not the local council (as a matter of central policy all cases regarding the bedroom tax have to be discussed with the DWP by the LA, even if the LA don't want to fight the case any further - as in this this case the DWP then takes them on regardless of what the LA thinks.)
A Discretionary Housing Payment has been awarded to cover the current shortfall, but these are limited to one year, so the JR is regarding whether DV victims should be exempt in the first place.
@CarlottaVance - the key difference is that when Labour introduced the LHA system it only applied to new tenancies, not existing ones, whereas the Bedroom Tax has a retrospective effect of making long-standing tenancies in the social rented sector suddenly unaffordable.
If only he went after him on policy......
Pretending that this was ever about freeing up accommodation for other households is myopic at best.
Labour sources argue they only win places in like Rochester and Strood in landslides. Not when they just need a majority like 2005 and 2015.
If you really think he won PMQs you are mad.
(And in light of your grim comment down thread about hiding from a frisky husband, you'll forgive me if I don't give your opinion on this much weight.)
Why isn't the mansion tax fair? It's not a question of fairness or not. It's just a badly constructed tax.
Cancer targets - who know, but targets are not necessarily the best way to manage the NHS
Panic room - need more details. But seems dubious that they need a spare room to hide in: why not the kitchen or bathroom or bedroom if you need a room with a lockable door.
Ladbrokes have moved their under/over prices back to 5/6 the pair
I think this (the unders) is a ridiculously good bet, not as good as SkyBet's under 50.5% but getting a bet with them is fantasyland.
I don't see why turnout should be higher than Clacton, and the primary returns, combined with he opinion polls make it almost impossible if my sums are anywhere near right
Winning c.16% in such a seat can't be spun as being of no account.
Why should the state be paying for these? What a bizarre line of questioning. Domestic violence is no laughing matter, but this crazy and tendentious line invites ridicule.
The premise of it sounds to me as if there is a very credulous example taken of one story in one house that has been lapped up by an MP's researcher and turned into this.