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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the focus is on post-Rochester. Will there be more defectors and if so how many?
William Hill betting http://t.co/DaoaqKVi3S: 2+ MPs to defect to UKIP between Rochester and GE15. Odds move from 6/4 to evens.
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foxinsoxuk said:The issue of British citizens who become pro-Jihadi is an interesting one. Anjem Choudhury is careful to not break the law.
What British way of dealing with him is there?Or would it be un-British to deal with him?
I said:
The British way is to be tolerant. And to be intolerant of those who are not. Which makes it tricky quite a lot of the time. But that's the way we like
Hope this was worth the effort.
A turncoat of ..., a headbang of ...a missing redbox of ...
The Rochester result will be crucial, not because of the outcome but because of the degree of the UKIP win/Conservative loss.
If Reckless wins 40-35 for example, the signal won't be too bad for Cameron. It will suggest a reasonable prospect of re-capturing the seat in May and will put off other prospective defectors.
If Reckless wins 45-30, the mood music is different. It's a heavy but not impossible defeat for the Conservatives - it won't calm nerves but it will show that there is hope.
If Reckless wins 50-25, I think Cameron could be in trouble - it will look as though defectors can leave and hold their seats and the pressure from other backbenchers seeing their seats at risk will be considerable.
The remaining Rochester vote splits perhaps 15% for Labour and 10% for everyone else with the Greens saving their deposit and the Lds losing theirs.
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 16th November 2014. 11 polls with a total weighted sample of 12,889:
Lab 33.5% (nc)
Con 32.1% (+0.5)
UKIP 15.5% (-0.8)
LD 7.8% (nc)
Lab lead 1.4% (-0.4)
Changes on the very first ELBOW from 17th August:
Lab -2.7%
Con -1.1%
UKIP +2.4%
LD -1.0%
Lab lead -1.6% (ie. was 3.0%, now 1.4%)
UKIP lose ground for the second week in a row, though the weekend's YouGov and ComRes restricted their loss this week to less than 1%. Tories claw back some ground against Lab as a result. Labour score doesn't seem to have been affected by media campaign against Ed.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 10m10 minutes ago
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week): Lab 33.5%, Con 32.1%, UKIP 15.5%, LD 7.8%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/534013821304967168
A Lisbon?
Arf. - I expect to see that in the media next week, or is it already borrowed from somewhere?
There's been a shift recently in the UKIP Percentage Market for Rochester.
The 40%/45% band had been favorite more or less from the outset but has now been eclipsed marginally by the 45%/50% band. Since we've had no polls published I guess this is due to private polling or simply a feel for how the ground war is going. If it is the higher band, it will be hard for the Tories to put a decent spin on it, although I can't see Dave calling it a day. Like his Labour counterpart he is saved by lack of plausible opposition, if nothing else.
Enjoyed my visit to Cheltenham. Kings Palace looks the business.
When they think Homer has defected to the USSR.
It was just such a feeling that made liberal democracy seem so supine in the face of competing totalitarianisms in the twenties and thirties. Though liberal democracy triumphed in the end of course, in large part because of its economic strength.
Totalitarian Islam is strongly associated with economic failure in nations (apart from a few petro-states), and even within nations. Ultimately the war on Terror will be won, once the poverty of its offering is recognised by its adherents.
Noted with thanks. I missed the Wetherby race.
But if a Con MP is only interested in retaining their seat then surely it can almost never make sense to defect.
It would only make sense if UKIP was favourite to win their seat - and that can only be the case in a tiny number of seats.
For now, I agree barring a third at R&S next week which looks hugely unlikely, I suspect the Prime Minister will ride out the storm and hope some positive coverage from the Autumn Statement will re-invigorate the Party's fortunes. It's all very well for the Tory activists on here to whitter on about how badly all the other parties are doing but the Conservatives are becalmed at or fractionally above 30%.
Hoping to be at Lingfield on the 25th and for the mid-December Saturday weather permitting. I've got the hump with Sandown over admission prices. The return of Great Leighs (aka Chelmsford City) next year will provide a closer track (about an hour in the car) so will give that a go.
As for KING'S PALACE, I think both he and SAUSALITO SUNRISE will be Gold Cup contenders in the future - perhaps they'll fight out the 2016 renewal.
They were coming together to plan how they wanted to get involved in the upcoming Rochester and Strood by-election. Ten 38 Degrees members chatted about the issues that affect the Medway area and why they’re not being talked about by the election candidates.
From 38 Degrees.
If that's so maybe the Green candidate will do better than expected, and UKIP worse than expected at Rochester. Fracking is the big never mentioned issue of the coming elections, which has the power to switch votes away from traditional loyalties, but UKIP are lining up behind the LibLabCon, and will miss out.
Would like to do Lingfield but suspect other duties will prevent it. I'll take a raincheck on it nearer the time.
Didn't know about Sandown. Shame. Such a great track. Have high hopes of Chelmsford - about 30 mins for me.
Sausalito ran a stormer too, franking the winner's form.
Far too close to an election to change Leaders. Looks like we are really going to see the resistable force versus the eminently removable object. What a contest!
Hopefully. I would like to see the Tories crumble like a pastry on a sausage roll.
Edit. Just read Stodge's post at the foot of the comments. Am inclined to agree.
All of this suggests that, as in 1997 with Major, the Conservatives are tied to their leader and will succeed or fail with him.
i could not see them doing an article "five things the conservatives must do to win the election"
Democracy is the worst system of government apart from all the others. It looks weak but that weakness and ability to assimilate (borg like) is its greatest strength. We have weakened our democracy by accepting those who don't want to assimilate but ultimately they or their children or their childrens' children will. They will change us but they will inevitably be changed by more.
Even traitorous pig-dogs are more sensible than the Gadarene swine!
"Balls, the British have over the centuries been world-leaders in all forms of brutal intolerance. Tolerance is a very very very good thing but to claim it as particularly British when we only passed the RRA in 1977 and the Sexual Offences Act in 1967 is just jingoistic nonsense."
On the nail Ishmael. It's odd how the British have these ideas of their moral superiority particularly of their tolerance and reasonableness. It's delusional and quite dangerous
I was listening to Greg Dyke of the FA saying that the judge in FIFA's tribuneral was completely wrong in his criticism of them and it was simply to deflect attention from FIFA's own wrongdoing.
When he was then asked about the £15,000 watch that he was given he waved the question away with the answer that he'd never even worn it he'd just put it in a drawer.
But then follows a slew of anti terror operations and arrests.
"Giving money and power to the government is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers."
and
"If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friends, I hope I would have the courage to betray my country."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-30074116
"The Sunday Times has said Montgomeryshire's Glyn Davies, 70, was just seven miles (11 km) from Rochester when he played on a nearby course.
But he told BBC Wales he cannot canvass because he has a bad back and cannot walk far."
Unless the recent polling, that UKIP is doing almost as well in wales as in england, is true.
Oh, and stop letting intolerant people through our political system. If you believe you shouldn't be friends with people of other religions, or that people shouldn't be allowed to leave your religion, or that your daughter should be banned from marrying outside your religion, then you shouldn't be allowed in.
https://www.collinstreet.com/pages/online_bakery_gift/deluxe_fruitcake
Has he gone lost somewhere in Whitehall for the past 3 years?
I think that most of the world has become more tolerant over time, so it is incorrect to look just at the past without comparing to other nations in the past. At almost every point in history Britain was more tolerant than its European peers, let alone the wider world, indeed it is one of the reasons so many want to come here!
Not quite. Some people are always more free than others.
Unsavoury views from the white right, say "racist" tweets mean prison sentences.
Banners demanding those who insult Islam be beheaded don't even raise an eyebrow.
This double standard extends overseas.
A cathedral gets desecrated in Moscow and the perpetrators are heroines.
Bacon is attached to doors outside a mosque in Scotland and you get sent down.
This was the Labour party's plan to import voters. Irrespective of short or long term effects.
People hate the Tories because of their image of corruption, incompetence and out of touchness that has been a characteristic for them for more than 2 decades now.
Also not helping is that there are not many liberal centrists left in this era, ironically the voters have moved to the extremes at the same time the Tories have moved to the centre.
People today want socialism and thatcherism, not liberalism.
Both should be free to speak freely.
The EAW mess and the Euro bill will make perfect excuses for him. His seat is also in the middle of the UKIP heartland.
The enemies of the Tories want "detoxification". These same who would never ever vote Tory. They are better off sticking to what they really believe in rather than touchy feely stuff over green taxes, gay rights and overseas aid.
Totemic issues like s28 were wildly popular when implemented. Just not among the self appointed metropolitan elite? Who really did not vote for the Tories because of Apartheid? Those few middle class professional revolutionaries who really cared would never have voted for them anyway.
How many seats did this yield the Tories? Richmond and Oxford W&A? How many more did they forego? Assorted seats in Grimsby, Dudley, Walsall, S'ton and that's just a 5 second list.
Dave and his mates want to be loved by those who hate the Tories. Yet they despise their natural constituency.
The Jewish religion would cease to exist in three or four generations. It is the most important tenet of the religion. But as they are already here or in similar liberal democracies how would you deal with their archaic behaviour?
Have you made your prediction yet? I cannot see it.
Is that a rant or a humorist note?
Woody Allen: "I was raised in the Jewish tradition, taught never to marry a Gentile woman, shave on Saturday and, most especially, never to shave a Gentile woman on Saturday."
My prediction. UKIP by 12.69%.
I entered using the moniker TSE aka Malleus Traitorus PigDogus
"Woody Allen: "I was raised in the Jewish tradition, taught never to marry a Gentile woman, shave on Saturday and, most especially, never to shave a Gentile woman on Saturday.""
Very good!
Nigel
"Now the real prejudice surfaces."
No just answering Socrates sweeping and typically half thought out generalization without giving him cause to call in the moderator
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2836535/Shameless-thief-sneaked-grandmother-s-funeral-burgle-MOTHER.html
Roger your posts are full of generalisations about people you don't like.. but hey, you are well into hypocrisy.
To detach the issue from the ethnic context, there is a group of a few hundred people who used to operate a school in my constituency for the Brethren, who are I believe are essentially the Open Plymouth Brethren (I think it's moved now). They don't vote, but they're interested in public affairs, so they asked if they could visit Parliament. I said sure, and showed them round, then offered them tea and biscuits. They were horrified: "We do not eat or have other social contact with non-members, and only wished you to show us the premises". They were all white British. They seemed pretty harmless, but they certainly appeared to "believe you shouldn't be friends with people of other religions".
I guess you wouldn't favour expelling them. But would you forbid them from bringing in members of the sect from other countries? It's an example of a peculiar exclusive belief which is legal and doesn't do obvious harm, so imposing restrictions on them seems rather illiberal. But if you wouldn't, how would you distinguish from members of a group who disapproved of mingling with non-Muslims?
That is a tad higher than Lord A's poll said, from a praetorian Tory I expected single digits.
New info from Rochester on hand?
I'm genuinely mystified by the mentality that thinks that losing support is good in the long run.
That's one vote from me.
Ironically we had stories of Tory MP's placing bets on a Tory win in Rochester as late as Monday.
I thought they were lauded by the lefty media-political establishment.
Moreover, the Tories are simultaneously losing a whole section of support, even as many of their MPs and candidates - and with less genuine enthusiasm, the leadership to a certain degree - are trying to ramp up their positions to appeal to those who are on their way out the door. Maybe some will end up coming back to them, but as far as I can see, the Tories are losing 'toxic' support - of considerable size - while intensifying the very policies and language which made the Tories 'toxic' to many in the first place.
That is, if those leaving for UKIP were to be the sign of the Tories purging the toxic from the party and being seen as a viable option by many others as a result, it won't work very well considering half the Tory party seems to want to be UKIP, and stresses how much they have in common and should be working together all the time.
Edit: That said, all I ever seem to hear from the Tories is how they are obsessed with not being seen as toxic or nasty, which just perpetuates it - they don't seem any more nasty to me than any other party - as they seem to believe it as much as other parties/ Now, given there is definitely a major anti-Tory bias in parts of the country which goes beyond the rational and which is more significant than the anti-Labour vote, I'm not sure how they resolve it. Huge parts of the country would never vote Tory even if they supported their policies, so the Tories acknowledge they are hated and try to change to fix it, which just reminds people all over again how the Tories are toxic and need to be fixed, so they gain little benefit.
You are such an expert on the region I am sure you are aware the Church of Christ the Saviour was demolished by the Bolsheviks, but was rebuilt by public subscription in the 90s when Russians were starving in the streets, so it occupies a particularly sacred position in Russian life. I am sure you have been to the Church so you are also aware that a woman must wear a shawl when entering, similarly I am sure you are aware how deeply outraged Russians were but this disgusting publicity stunt.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/08/23/the-secret-history-of-pussy-riot/
"The "desecration" of the church by Pussy Riot was.. ummm... singing a song with curse words in it there. No physical damage was caused. And for that illegal concert, they spent time in Siberians work camps. It was an insane and barbaric reaction."
Prison for protest. Barbarians......
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/aug/07/charlie-gilmour-prison-david-mitchell
Pussy Riot is itself a swear word in Russian.
One wore a slogan from the Spanish Civil War, with all its slaughter of priests, in a church only just re-built after being razed by the Communists.
What they did would be illegal in this country under at least four difference offences.
I agree, though, that their detention was too long.
But that hardly entitles them to be feted on a visit to this country.