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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 30th 2013

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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Con 423 Lab 375

    The Labour slide continues...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.
    Agreed. Superb performance - far better than those who have been MPs for years.
    Clever Ukip positioning on the NHS could mop up some Labour votes in areas where Labour cannot win.

    I am no kipper, but am impressed. Anna Soubry also coming over well, Nick P will not have a walkover in his Midlands bell weather constituency.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.
    Probably after she returns to the Tory party post Cameron.

    I agree. Diane is young. She has decades of opportunity in front of her.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.
    Agreed. Superb performance - far better than those who have been MPs for years.
    Clever Ukip positioning on the NHS could mop up some Labour votes in areas where Labour cannot win.

    I am no kipper, but am impressed. Anna Soubry also coming over well, Nick P will not have a walkover in his Midlands bell weather constituency.

    Soubry put in a much better performance than in her previous stint on QT.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.
    Agreed. Superb performance - far better than those who have been MPs for years.
    Clever Ukip positioning on the NHS could mop up some Labour votes in areas where Labour cannot win.


    Remeber James left the Tory party due to Cameron's "patronising attitude towards women", and then Cameron went on to prove her right by chanting "local mother of four" in Eastleigh when the imbecilic Maria Hutchings was his A lister.

    Diane James will be back in the Tory party when the chinless clique is removed
    How many children does The Hutch have? I'm not sure I caught it.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    RodCrosby said:

    Con 423 Lab 375

    The Labour slide continues...
    It's difficult to compare with 2011 as there were 3 Tory candidates with a big variation in their performance (especially the top candidate). However, if you take the second Tory candidate, his lead over Labour is similar to the Con lead tonight. So I am not sure there's a further slide.

    But Labour did disappointingly (aka not well aka bad. Chose the right emphasis) in Tamworth in 2011 and last May. This result is in the same line.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    Labour shortlists

    Hove:
    Simon Burgess (2010 Kemptown candidate, former council leader, shortlisted for Croydon North by-election) www.simonburgess.org/home/
    Peter Kyle (Deputy CEO at ACEVO, a charity that supports CEOs of other charities)
    Adrian Twyning (Associate Director of Operations Brighton & Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust, responsible for children and women’s services) www.adriantwyning.co.uk/

    Hornsey & Wood Green:

    Kirsten Hearn (2012 GLA list candidate)
    Mandy Richards (2012 GLA candidate in Redbridge & Havering)
    Catherine West (Islington council leader)

    10 applications were received to be the Labour candidate in Hampstead & Kilburn

    No woman on the Hove shortlist? I thought there would always be one even when it's not an AWS? But Simon will be odds-on favourite (and Catherine in Islington by a mile).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.

    Bobajob said:

    Ukip lady tacking left on NHS. Clever. Worrying.

    She is doing very well, will be an MP in time I am sure.
    Agreed. Superb performance - far better than those who have been MPs for years.
    Clever Ukip positioning on the NHS could mop up some Labour votes in areas where Labour cannot win.


    Remeber James left the Tory party due to Cameron's "patronising attitude towards women", and then Cameron went on to prove her right by chanting "local mother of four" in Eastleigh when the imbecilic Maria Hutchings was his A lister.

    Diane James will be back in the Tory party when the chinless clique is removed
    With Labour increasingly on the slide, she may have a long wait. The Bullington boys may yet pull off an unlikely victory.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Nick

    IIRC there was just 1 female applicant in Hov, because Brighton Kemptwon and Pavillion selections are taking place at the same time with AWS. I don't know what happened to her. She may have withdrawn if she also applied to the other 2 seats.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    tim said:

    Demonising immigrants not going well on QT
    Did anyone tell Lynton Crosby which country he was in when he decided to get Dave to do that stuff?

    Cameron is not the ramper, tim is. Cam says that by taking action on reducing immigration he hopes that it will become less of a concern to people.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.
    Wasn't he given a leading job and left it?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2013
    I didn't buy the line from Alan Johnston about scheduling difficult cases for Friday deliberately. I schedule the risky ones for Monday, so we can watch them carefully over the week.

    Higher death rates on a friday are an international phenomenon, this study was in the New York area.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2332152/Why-avoid-heart-surgery-Friday-Its-dangerous-times-year-treated.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    isam said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.
    Wasn't he given a leading job and left it?
    You mean like Hillary Clinton?

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Now Osborne's upsetting the Yanks:

    US fears over cuts in British defence
    Defence cuts will leave the British Army “dependent” on its US counterparts, a senior American commander has warned.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10090309/US-fears-over-cuts-in-British-defence.html

    As William Hague said, ukip would bankrupt Britain faster than Brown would.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.

    Since the Likes button went we seem to have lost some of the more stupid posters who were touting Soubry as the next Tory leader.
    Not realising that she's only 6 years younger than Alan Johnson after touting a Scottish Tory surge or Liam Fox being safe - a great loss.
    Chronologically six years, but a couple of decades in energy. If Broxtowe was not so marginal there would be possibilities.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd say Labour would need to carry Fazeley in order to win the Tamworth constituency...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    perdix said:

    tim said:

    Demonising immigrants not going well on QT
    Did anyone tell Lynton Crosby which country he was in when he decided to get Dave to do that stuff?

    Cameron is not the ramper, tim is. Cam says that by taking action on reducing immigration he hopes that it will become less of a concern to people.


    Well if that's the case then how come concern about immigration is going through the roof among Tories (other party supporters much less so) while numbers are falling and Cameron ramps up (not my words,google it) "irrational fear over immigration"?

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3181/EconomistIpsos-MORI-May-2013-Issues-Index.aspx
    Immigration has been number two for years. The political class ignored it.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.

    Since the Likes button went we seem to have lost some of the more stupid posters who were touting Soubry as the next Tory leader.
    Not realising that she's only 6 years younger than Alan Johnson after touting a Scottish Tory surge or Liam Fox being safe - a great loss.
    Soubry's alright, tim. Not a second Thatcher and, as you say, unlikely to be leader.

    But I bet Nick would prefer to have a weaker and less nationally visible candidate to fight in Broxstowe.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    @

    I didn't buy the line from Alan Johnston about scheduling difficult cases for Friday deliberately. I schedule the risky ones for Monday, so we can watch them carefully over the week.

    It is an international phenomenon, this study was in the New York area.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2332152/Why-avoid-heart-surgery-Friday-Its-dangerous-times-year-treated.html


    The heart surgeon-friday thing is well known I thought?
    Discussed this week on Today.

    Yeah, but some are trying to push a bash the Doctors agenda using it as a stick.

    Including Mehdi Hassan.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • isam said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.
    Wasn't he given a leading job and left it?
    Shadow Chancellor

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/jan/20/alan-johnson-resigns-shadow-chancellor-live
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.

    Since the Likes button went we seem to have lost some of the more stupid posters who were touting Soubry as the next Tory leader.
    Not realising that she's only 6 years younger than Alan Johnson after touting a Scottish Tory surge or Liam Fox being safe - a great loss.
    Soubry's alright, tim. Not a second Thatcher and, as you say, unlikely to be leader.

    But I bet Nick would prefer to have a weaker and less nationally visible candidate to fight in Broxstowe.

    Now, I like Soubry, but I also like Nick. How should we settle this?

    Fight!

  • perdix said:

    Now Osborne's upsetting the Yanks:

    US fears over cuts in British defence
    Defence cuts will leave the British Army “dependent” on its US counterparts, a senior American commander has warned.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10090309/US-fears-over-cuts-in-British-defence.html

    As William Hague said, ukip would bankrupt Britain faster than Brown would.

    Why you are bleating about UKIP when its an article about the US I have no idea/

    Ironically, you can say the same about George Osborne given he's borrowing something like four times the amount as Chancellor as Brown did as Chancellor and he's doing it in fewer years too,

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Q: What happens if you mix the Beach Boys with the theme music from the 1980s medical drama St Elsewhere?

    A: Daft Punk's new track "Doin' It Right":

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA5PRj7KPkE&amp
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,397
    Smithersjones - Agree
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    AveryLP said:



    Soubry's alright, tim. Not a second Thatcher and, as you say, unlikely to be leader.

    But I bet Nick would prefer to have a weaker and less nationally visible candidate to fight in Broxstowe.

    Now, I like Soubry, but I also like Nick. How should we settle this?

    Fight!

    National visibility is a two-edged sword in a marginal. But, cough, neither of us have been confirmed as Broxtowe candidates yet, for different reasons.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @

    I didn't buy the line from Alan Johnston about scheduling difficult cases for Friday deliberately. I schedule the risky ones for Monday, so we can watch them carefully over the week.

    It is an international phenomenon, this study was in the New York area.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2332152/Why-avoid-heart-surgery-Friday-Its-dangerous-times-year-treated.html


    The heart surgeon-friday thing is well known I thought?
    Discussed this week on Today.

    Yeah, but some are trying to push a bash the Doctors agenda using it as a stick.

    Including Mehdi Hassan.
    Well employ a lot more doctors.
    Or increase the death rates outside weekends by spreading the doctors around more.

    Those are the choices for those buying the argument

    There are solutions that cost nothing. I would suggest that Thursday and Friday are reserved for teaching, admin, outpatients and daycare minor ops. Simples.

    But if you recall on Gerry Robinson, Rotherham were criticized for doing just that, and leaned on to operate on Friday PM.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    edited May 2013

    AveryLP said:



    Soubry's alright, tim. Not a second Thatcher and, as you say, unlikely to be leader.

    But I bet Nick would prefer to have a weaker and less nationally visible candidate to fight in Broxstowe.

    Now, I like Soubry, but I also like Nick. How should we settle this?

    Fight!

    National visibility is a two-edged sword in a marginal. But, cough, neither of us have been confirmed as Broxtowe candidates yet, for different reasons.
    Well done for trying again, takes guts.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.

    Since the Likes button went we seem to have lost some of the more stupid posters who were touting Soubry as the next Tory leader.
    Not realising that she's only 6 years younger than Alan Johnson after touting a Scottish Tory surge or Liam Fox being safe - a great loss.
    Soubry's alright, tim. Not a second Thatcher and, as you say, unlikely to be leader.

    But I bet Nick would prefer to have a weaker and less nationally visible candidate to fight in Broxstowe.

    Now, I like Soubry, but I also like Nick. How should we settle this?

    Fight!

    Either an election in a marginal where Lib Dems vote 2:1 Palmer, or she fights Rushcliffe instead.
    She won last time.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited May 2013

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Only been dipping into QT but going by the bits I heard Johnson and Soubry seemed to be in agreement about everything.

    It's odd to see Alan Johnson out of the Shadow Cabinet and of little influence within the Miliband of brothers.

    I am not certain Gordon would have made the same mistake as Ed in ceding the entire centre ground of politics to the Coalition.

    Since the Likes button went we seem to have lost some of the more stupid posters who were touting Soubry as the next Tory leader.
    Not realising that she's only 6 years younger than Alan Johnson after touting a Scottish Tory surge or Liam Fox being safe - a great loss.
    Soubry's alright, tim. Not a second Thatcher and, as you say, unlikely to be leader.

    But I bet Nick would prefer to have a weaker and less nationally visible candidate to fight in Broxstowe.

    Now, I like Soubry, but I also like Nick. How should we settle this?

    Fight!

    Actually, it's:

    Well, I like Soubry, but I also like Nick. But which is better? There's only one way to find out:

    Fight!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Hill's_TV_Burp
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22717291

    For those who haven't followed this story, a week and a half ago the Ugandan government closed down both the main independent newspaper & the most popular (and terribly trashy) tabloid after they published a letter from an army general critical of the government. He alleged Museveni is grooming is son for power, the so called 'Muhoozi project'

    This is a rather tragic editorial from the monitor:

    http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/Editorial/We-will-remain-fair-and-accurate/-/689360/1867764/-/awcqqe/-/index.html

    Turns out Museveni is another Mugabi.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    @

    I didn't buy the line from Alan Johnston about scheduling difficult cases for Friday deliberately. I schedule the risky ones for Monday, so we can watch them carefully over the week.

    It is an international phenomenon, this study was in the New York area.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2332152/Why-avoid-heart-surgery-Friday-Its-dangerous-times-year-treated.html


    The heart surgeon-friday thing is well known I thought?
    Discussed this week on Today.

    Yeah, but some are trying to push a bash the Doctors agenda using it as a stick.

    Including Mehdi Hassan.
    Well employ a lot more doctors.
    Or increase the death rates outside weekends by spreading the doctors around more.

    Those are the choices for those buying the argument

    There are solutions that cost nothing. I would suggest that Thursday and Friday are reserved for teaching, admin, outpatients and daycare minor ops. Simples.

    But if you recall on Gerry Robinson, Rotherham were criticized for doing just that, and leaned on to operate on Friday PM.


    The real jokers are those who want 24 hour operating theatres to cut coasts and boost efficiency
    I couldn't agree more. Sadly our managers and commissioners do not. Under current commissioning arrangements operations are sold like fish on the Dockside, and if you get the Friday slot because you will breach the 18 week RTT target, then so be it.

    I have to deal with this sort of malarky every day, welcome to New Labour target driven NHS.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    tim: There's a lot of local speculation but according to Tory sources the issue is not yet decided - for one thing, I don't think Ken C has declared his intentions yet. I'd guess we'll know all on both sides before long. Should be fun if we're both up again.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Oh, and this:

    "Syrian state-run television reported Thursday that forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad killed three Westerners, including an American woman and a British citizen, who they claim were fighting with the rebels and were found with weapons and maps of government military facilities."

    http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/30/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    So where's that Survation poll that someone mentioned?
  • So where's that Survation poll that someone mentioned?

    Nothing on their site.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Selena Gray:

    "I'm in shock: I've just discovered that my mother and sister are Ukip supporters":

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/selenagray/100219364/im-in-shock-ive-just-discovered-that-my-mother-and-sister-are-ukip-supporters/
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I was a bit surprised that Mark Bridger got a whole-life tariff. Even Ian Huntley (Soham) "only" got a 40-year tariff.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 30th May - CON 30%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%; APP -34
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov:

    Its leaders are prepared to take tough and
    unpopular decisions
    Applies most to the Conservatives: 44(+3)
    Applies most to Labour: 10(-1)
    Applies most to LibDems: 4(-1)
    None of them: 28(-1)
    DK: 14 (0)

    Other similar questions are +1 or -1
This discussion has been closed.