EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country. As most polls show, there is a greater lenience shown to Labour than any other major party - a lot of voters, even those not currently planning to vote Labour, feel that intrinsically it is on their side. It's a huge advantage and one that Labour itself has taken too much for granted, but it clearly exists - except, perhaps, in Scotland.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
So does Ed still want to freeze energy prices while the oil price is dropping like a stone? it's an interesting view of credibility.
Ref your above prediction, what's your view on whether Ed Miliband will join IDS and Ming Campbell as leaders who were deposed before they even fought an election?
Thank you for your kind comment David.
Too late now for Ed to be deposed. Labour are also awful at regicide.
One only has to recall the impending disaster of Michael Foot in 1983. Virtually all of Labour knew a heavy defeat loomed large but they persisted with Foot to the bitter end. It's in their DNA to give their man his chance to be defeated badly. And so will be the case in 2015.
There's also the thorny question of the replacement - Who ?? .... none inspire confidence and the polls certainly don't indicate a challenger would invigorate Labour.
No, Labour are stuck with Ed until the weekend after the general election.
Completely agree, the thing that clinches it for me is the polling data on the contenders in the Mail. If it showed any real differences he would be gone, it doesn't.
Chukka for PM? The guy would blow away in a breeze.
Chukka would be worse than Ed at getting support outside London (increasingly that is their bastion). His slick suit and vacuity remind me of an "Apprentice" reject.
Johnson has retired (rightly) to Andrew Neill's sofa. Which leaves only Burnham or Harman as serious candidates (the latter because of her constitutional position).
Harman would be hilarious, what with her links to PIE and way over the top equality views, which she would impose on everyone else except her own family.
Harman would certainly contrast greatly in the debates with the men in suits, and could do well with the female vote who are the least susceptible to the charms of Faragism.
Even more so if clumsy attacks on her threaten to turn the election into a sex war. And Harman's "feminism for posh people" would in any case be attractive to Conservative women.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
You're saying that he isn't offering an alternative but merely more of the same, so no reason to vote for him.
A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country. As most polls show, there is a greater lenience shown to Labour than any other major party - a lot of voters, even those not currently planning to vote Labour, feel that intrinsically it is on their side. It's a huge advantage and one that Labour itself has taken too much for granted, but it clearly exists - except, perhaps, in Scotland.
'except perhaps in Scotland, the whole of southern England and now parts of the north. We only need to see the impact on London as the luvvies flee the mansion tax for foreign climes and it's all over. Will the last luvvie to leave the country please turn out the lights?
A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country. As most polls show, there is a greater lenience shown to Labour than any other major party - a lot of voters, even those not currently planning to vote Labour, feel that intrinsically it is on their side. It's a huge advantage and one that Labour itself has taken too much for granted, but it clearly exists - except, perhaps, in Scotland.
It doesn't exist with the WWC any longer, quite the opposite in fact, and therein lies their fatal problem.
Mr. Observer, danger for Labour is that it might be losing that. This could be, if you like, the incubation period for UKIP as the last decade was for the SNP (in Westminster terms).
It's possible UKIP could be as bad, or worse, for Labour in the north of England as it is for the Conservatives in the south. Can Labour get the white working class to stop drifting towards kippery?
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
So does Ed still want to freeze energy prices while the oil price is dropping like a stone? it's an interesting view of credibility.
I do chuckle when I see energy companies boasting about their frozen prices. Thanks Ed!
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
You're saying that he isn't offering an alternative but merely more of the same, so no reason to vote for him.
No, it's better than the status quo: You get less nasty tabloid panders. You get some silly electoral panders in exchange, but they're very small-scale and not generally targeted at vulnerable people.
You also get a continued absence of things that would happen under Con Maj but they can't get past the LibDems. It's not really clear how what the scale of these is, and a continued coalition would work too, but you can't really vote _against_ Con Maj except by voting Lib or Lab depending on the seat.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
So does Ed still want to freeze energy prices while the oil price is dropping like a stone? it's an interesting view of credibility.
That's an interesting question, although it doesn't really affect overall credibility either way as the policy will still sound good to people who aren't paying attention, and always sounded daft to anyone who was.
The ironic thing is that if we had AV we would probably be heading for a Tory majority because of more UKIP preferences going to the Tories than Labour, if we had PR we would be heading for a Tory-UKIP Coalition. As it is, under FPTP the best Cameron can probably get is another Tory-LD Coalition or Tory minority government, the Tory 'victory' in the AV referendum was in retrospect a very pyrrhic victory!
''A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country.''
You are probably correct SO, but what we have seen in the last year is that there is a big difference between identifying with labour and putting a cross in a box.
Those poll scores do not translate into votes (Rochester will be the latest example).
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
So does Ed still want to freeze energy prices while the oil price is dropping like a stone? it's an interesting view of credibility.
That's an interesting question, although it doesn't really affect overall credibility either way as the policy will still sound good to people who aren't paying attention, and always sounded daft to anyone who was.
Quite. Ed M has been overcautious much of the time, but he's made some announcements along the way which have certainly sounded pretty good to me, and if they fall apart afterwards, well, most people will only remember the first one and how it made them feel instinctively, if they remember at all. Couple that with Labour's continued if declining brand advantage, and they will out perform where it counts.
A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country. As most polls show, there is a greater lenience shown to Labour than any other major party - a lot of voters, even those not currently planning to vote Labour, feel that intrinsically it is on their side. It's a huge advantage and one that Labour itself has taken too much for granted, but it clearly exists - except, perhaps, in Scotland.
It doesn't exist with the WWC any longer, quite the opposite in fact, and therein lies their fatal problem.
Except that is demonstrably untrue - and can be seen in actual polls and opinion polls.
The white working class does not only consist of people who vote UKIP. It is not just brown working class people and elite metropolitans who continue to support Labour, much as you would clearly like that to be so.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
So does Ed still want to freeze energy prices while the oil price is dropping like a stone? it's an interesting view of credibility.
Natural gas prices have risen since the US overthrew the Ukrainian government and endangered Europe's supply.
Mr. Observer, danger for Labour is that it might be losing that. This could be, if you like, the incubation period for UKIP as the last decade was for the SNP (in Westminster terms).
It's possible UKIP could be as bad, or worse, for Labour in the north of England as it is for the Conservatives in the south. Can Labour get the white working class to stop drifting towards kippery?
UKIP has to decide what it stands for. In the north of England UKIP has yet to defeat Labour in any meaningful election. I would suggest that is because despite the popularity of its immigration message it is still widely seen as a party of right-wing Tories.
Gadfly touches on a question that I would like to see more discussion of: who are the voters moving towards the Conservatives? The Red Liberals and the rise of UKIP have been much debated, but this third element needs to be understood much better.
Havent they lost support?
EDIT: Have I missed that this is a joke?
They have lost support net. But the movement to UKIP has been far greater than the net support that they have lost. So they have gained some others. Who these people are will be highly relevant in understanding the impact in individual constituencies.
"But the movement to UKIP has been far greater than the net support that they have lost"
Has it? I don't see it
From Mikes pie chart it seems 30% of UKIPs current support is 2010 Cons.... What was the last Ashcroft for UKIP, 16%?
If it was then 30% of 16 is 4.8% which leaves the Conservatives on about 30% once you subtract it from their 2010 vote doesn't it?
''A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country.''
You are probably correct SO, but what we have seen in the last year is that there is a big difference between identifying with labour and putting a cross in a box.
Those poll scores do not translate into votes (Rochester will be the latest example).
That is completely correct. But it also suggests that whatever polls might say about the relative attractiveness of alternatives to Ed, were he actually to be replaced it would probably give Labour a boost - undeserved though it may be.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
You're saying that he isn't offering an alternative but merely more of the same, so no reason to vote for him.
No, it's better than the status quo: You get less nasty tabloid panders. You get some silly electoral panders in exchange, but they're very small-scale and not generally targeted at vulnerable people.
You also get a continued absence of things that would happen under Con Maj but they can't get past the LibDems. It's not really clear how what the scale of these is, and a continued coalition would work too, but you can't really vote _against_ Con Maj except by voting Lib or Lab depending on the seat.
The difference is that Ed's nasty little panders (e.g. on energy price freezes) may have very serious consequences for the economy eg under investment in energy supply). The tabloid pandering (and I don't think most Tories actually share the Mail's view) is just nasty but is unlikely to have material consequences
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
Gadfly touches on a question that I would like to see more discussion of: who are the voters moving towards the Conservatives? The Red Liberals and the rise of UKIP have been much debated, but this third element needs to be understood much better.
Havent they lost support?
EDIT: Have I missed that this is a joke?
Not really - if the conservatives have lost 7/8% to UKIP they should be much lower in the polls than they are now.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
You're saying that he isn't offering an alternative but merely more of the same, so no reason to vote for him.
No, it's better than the status quo: You get less nasty tabloid panders. You get some silly electoral panders in exchange, but they're very small-scale and not generally targeted at vulnerable people.
You also get a continued absence of things that would happen under Con Maj but they can't get past the LibDems. It's not really clear how what the scale of these is, and a continued coalition would work too, but you can't really vote _against_ Con Maj except by voting Lib or Lab depending on the seat.
The difference is that Ed's nasty little panders (e.g. on energy price freezes) may have very serious consequences for the economy eg under investment in energy supply). The tabloid pandering (and I don't think most Tories actually share the Mail's view) is just nasty but is unlikely to have material consequences
Indeed - and for all of the current government's faults the economy is growing, unemployment is way down, prices are very stable, the low paid have had big tax cuts and there has been some reform of the ridiculous welfare bill. I shudder to think where we'd be with Miliband/Balls/Mcclusky in charge.
Ed Miliband called what's going on a "tsunami of craperoo"?!
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
Ed Miliband called what's going on a "tsunami of craperoo"?!
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
EdM has not only let down Labour, he has let down millions of people across the country in his failure to provide leadership, to develop coherent policies and to project a credible alternative to the Tories. It is utterly extraordinary that Labour still has a chance of winning most seats next year.
What Labour are offering is the same as the current (non-Con-majority) government apart from a couple of electoral panders (energy price freeze etc) and the reversal of some nasty Tory tabloid pandering like the bedroom tax.
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
You're saying that he isn't offering an alternative but merely more of the same, so no reason to vote for him.
No, it's better than the status quo: You get less nasty tabloid panders. You get some silly electoral panders in exchange, but they're very small-scale and not generally targeted at vulnerable people.
You also get a continued absence of things that would happen under Con Maj but they can't get past the LibDems. It's not really clear how what the scale of these is, and a continued coalition would work too, but you can't really vote _against_ Con Maj except by voting Lib or Lab depending on the seat.
The difference is that Ed's nasty little panders (e.g. on energy price freezes) may have very serious consequences for the economy eg under investment in energy supply). The tabloid pandering (and I don't think most Tories actually share the Mail's view) is just nasty but is unlikely to have material consequences
Nah, the pander was tiny and inconsequential. They'd just shift the billing around a bit. The energy sector reform announced along with it is proper, consequential policy (basically going back to Major's design instead of the Mandelson/Prescott one) but I'd have thought the Tories would end up doing it if Labour don't.
RIP Serbian, Iraqi, Syrian, Libyan, Afghan and Ukrainian victims of our US led wars. Never allow our political elite to manipulate our war dead for their own purposes.
A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country. As most polls show, there is a greater lenience shown to Labour than any other major party - a lot of voters, even those not currently planning to vote Labour, feel that intrinsically it is on their side. It's a huge advantage and one that Labour itself has taken too much for granted, but it clearly exists - except, perhaps, in Scotland.
It doesn't exist with the WWC any longer, quite the opposite in fact, and therein lies their fatal problem.
The white working class does not only consist of people who vote UKIP.
In fairness, UKIP is more C2DE skewed than Labour, in today's YouGov snapshot:
Re the thread header surely the big picture is Ed's speech tomorrow to the CBI when he rallies the nation behind support for the EU and all it stands for - that's gonna bring the deserters rushing back from UKIP surely? Free movement rules!
Surely the most noteworthy figure there is that nearly half of them are people who did not vote last time round.
And hence......are unlikely to vote next time either - unless, as in Scotland, there has been a hugely galvanising event.......
FPT:
THE scale of the challenge facing Scottish Labour can be revealed after it emerged the party has one-sixth of the membership of the SNP.
Informed sources said the number of members currently sits at just under 13,500, a figure boosted by nearly 1000 new referendum campaign sign-ups....
The SNP tally has shot up from 25,000 to 84,228. The Scottish Socialist Party, which has long been in the political doldrums, has increased its membership from 1500 to 3500. The Scottish Greens had fewer than 2000 members before the referendum, but now have more than 7500.
But there is a galvanising event, for the first time since the early 90's there is a party that they feel they can vote for, UKIP.
The idea that the previous non voters will still be non voters is based on the assumption that they failed to vote out of apathy rather than a position of "none of the above". An assumption that I think is very deeply flawed.
Ed just layed his wreath at the Cenotaph, a chance to look statesmanlike amidst his troubles. A wreath laid on behalf of Plaid Cymru and the SNP by Elwyn Lloyd
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
The whole point of much of the EU regulation is to entrench the positions of the major corporation and place high financial barriers in the way of new competitors by making them jump through regulatory hoops that costs tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds in product testing before they are allowed to place things on the market.
A danger for many on here is that they may confuse their own dislike of Labour with a general feeling in the country. As most polls show, there is a greater lenience shown to Labour than any other major party - a lot of voters, even those not currently planning to vote Labour, feel that intrinsically it is on their side. It's a huge advantage and one that Labour itself has taken too much for granted, but it clearly exists - except, perhaps, in Scotland.
It doesn't exist with the WWC any longer, quite the opposite in fact, and therein lies their fatal problem.
The white working class does not only consist of people who vote UKIP.
In fairness, UKIP is more C2DE skewed than Labour, in today's YouGov snapshot:
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
If we accept , at face value, the UKIP figures, we are, by implication, also assuming that turnout will increase at the GE next year.
100% of all people MAY NOT VOTE!
But accepting that you mean people that didn't vote last time are less likely to vote, you are still wrong.
The 45% in Mikes chart includes "others", it isn't just 2010 DNV
2010 UKIP is probably about 20 of the 45 you speak of, and if you don't think any 2010 BNP voters have switched to UKIP you are a rarity amongst PBers!
Re: the big story of the w/e ie the EU rebate debacle why has Osborne not resigned yet? ))
I may be missing some irony here but I think per the current polling it looks like the voters fell for the scam? Often it's the first lot of headlines that matter - the voters don't notice the detail getting unpicked in subsequent days, which is why politicians like Osborne and Brown try it on in the first place.
PaulMidBeds Yes, the Tories, LDs and Greens are middle class parties, Labour still has slightly more working class than middle class backers, but UKIP are arguably now the true party of the working class
Ed Miliband called what's going on a "tsunami of craperoo"?!
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
EIC no longer, EIATOC rules now
If he used language like that in his interviews people might take to him a bit more. I for one would be rather more inclined to actually listen to what he has to say.
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Adding more ABs while sloughing off C1s, C2s Ds and Es would have been fine in the time of Lord Salisbury, but now there is a universal franchise, the ABs are about 10% of the electorate, if that.
What really worries the people running this country is the C12DEs splitting from the ABs and forming an electable party that would be unequivocably for the C12DEs and make life much harder for the ABs.
Labour did that in the early 20th Century, leading to a long overdue rebalancing of society without the violence experienced in France and Russia. For this reason Labour have been given the benefit of the doubt for a long time by many C12DEs. However the penny is now firmly dropping that Labour has been taken over by ABs and will only act in the interest of ABs, hence the rise in UKIP and the SNP in Scotland.
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns
Ed Miliband called what's going on a "tsunami of craperoo"?!
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
EIC no longer, EIATOC rules now
If he used language like that in his interviews people might take to him a bit more. I for one would be rather more inclined to actually listen to what he has to say.
Ed Miliband called what's going on a "tsunami of craperoo"?!
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
EIC no longer, EIATOC rules now
If he used language like that in his interviews people might take to him a bit more. I for one would be rather more inclined to actually listen to what he has to say.
You think he'd come up smelling of roses?
It would be a much better response to the question about his leadership to say it's a 'tsunami of craperoo' than 'this is a matter which does not arise' or whatever meaningless contortion of the language he did come up with.
Gadfly touches on a question that I would like to see more discussion of: who are the voters moving towards the Conservatives? The Red Liberals and the rise of UKIP have been much debated, but this third element needs to be understood much better.
Havent they lost support?
EDIT: Have I missed that this is a joke?
Not really - if the conservatives have lost 7/8% to UKIP they should be much lower in the polls than they are now.
Some of the Conservative loss to UKIP is offset by a gain of votes from the Lib Dems, so the net position doesn't look so bad for them.
However, just as the Tories are losing (roughly) twice as many voters to UKIP as Labour they are also gaining (roughly) half as many voters from the Lib Dems as Labour. It's not a great set of electoral mathematics. There are still many undecided voters, though.
Re: the big story of the w/e ie the EU rebate debacle why has Osborne not resigned yet? ))
I may be missing some irony here but I think per the current polling it looks like the voters fell for the scam? Often it's the first lot of headlines that matter - the voters don't notice the detail getting unpicked in subsequent days, which is why politicians like Osborne and Brown try it on in the first place.
Or maybe the voters rather haven't fallen for the faux Kipper/Labour outrage which was displayed in spades on here on Friday and has now all gone quiet.
Labour did that in the early 20th Century, leading to a long overdue rebalancing of society without the violence experienced in France and Russia. For this reason Labour have been given the benefit of the doubt for a long time by many C12DEs. However the penny is now firmly dropping that Labour has been taken over by ABs and will only act in the interest of ABs, hence the rise in UKIP and the SNP in Scotland.
Yes indeed. As someone said here a couple of days ago, Labour expected the WWC to be liberals that didn't get it yet, rather than the reality that they are social conservatives that want some wage protection.
The more Labour moves to pander to the Guardianista and the metropolitan liberals, the more they will peel off to UKIP, who offer then social conservatism, and with their immigration policy, one of the best routes available to higher wages.
Similarly the more Cameron panders to the orange bookers and metropolitan liberals, the more the shire Tories will peel off as well. Which is doubly stupid, because most metropolitan liberals wont be seen dead voting Tory.
Farage hardly has to lift a finger and the votes roll in.
Ed Miliband called what's going on a "tsunami of craperoo"?!
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
EIC no longer, EIATOC rules now
If he used language like that in his interviews people might take to him a bit more. I for one would be rather more inclined to actually listen to what he has to say.
You think he'd come up smelling of roses?
It would be a much better response to the question about his leadership to say it's a 'tsunami of craperoo' than 'this is a matter which does not arise' or whatever meaningless contortion of the language he did come up with.
a 'tsunami of craperoo' is not exactly Prime Ministerial is it?
He sounds and looks like a rather nerdy student, who isn't as bright as he thinks he is.
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
It does look like there is now a desperate attempt by some of the wanna be Miliband successors to distance themselves from the current grumbling and plotting to remove him. If the last bout of infighting under Brown is anything to go by, there will be a lot of briefing and attempts by the various runners and riders to implicate potential rivals as the stalking horse causing this damaging disunity.
But what is very interesting is the fact that some Labour backbenchers genuinely don't believe that the party can win the next GE with Ed Miliband as their Leader, and that suggests he is becoming an issue on the doorstep amongst Labour and non Labour voters.
If Tristram Hunt's comments in the Mail are correctly reported, then surely ed will either have to sack him or go.
Hunt will sleep with the fishes.
Morning all,
The question is: who leaked his comments. It seems they were made in a private conversation to other senior colleagues. Who could possibly gain by Hunt not being a leadership candidate in June 2015?
Antifrank, your right, we do need to focus on and better understand this third key voter element. Lets for the meantime call them shy Tories, although I suspect this group of voters now contain some of those Labour/Floating voters who simple cannot bring themselves to vote for Ed Miliband.
Gadfly touches on a question that I would like to see more discussion of: who are the voters moving towards the Conservatives? The Red Liberals and the rise of UKIP have been much debated, but this third element needs to be understood much better.
But what is very interesting is the fact that some Labour backbenchers genuinely don't believe that the party can win the next GE with Ed Miliband as their Leader, and that suggests he is becoming an issue on the doorstep amongst Labour and non Labour voters.
Possibly they have had some rather terrifying internal polling done as well.
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
Good morning. How important is the Mansion Tax, as presently proposed, outside Greater London?
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
Good morning. How important is the Mansion Tax, as presently proposed, outside Greater London?
Irrelevant compared to its impact in London. Labour's power base in the south. Doh!
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
The Mansion Tax is a car crash of epic proportions, only today we had Michael Caine adding his voice to the collections of luvvies who hate the idea, and these are all the sort of champagne socialists that previously would have voted Labour, and include the sort of people that write nice things about them in the newspaper columns and throw them softball questions on the TV.
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
The Mansion Tax is a car crash of epic proportions, only today we had Michael Caine adding his voice to the collections of luvvies who hate the idea, and these are all the sort of champagne socialists that previously would have voted Labour, and include the sort of people that write nice things about them in the newspaper columns and throw them softball questions on the TV.
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
I agree. It is poor policy. Nobody will believe that this new class of tax, effectively a state ground rent on freeholders will be kept to the millionaire class.
Interesting, Mr. Pong, where was that photo taken? I only ask because there more people than ever at our village memorial this morning. By estimation, excluding organised groups, there were upwards of 300 people of all ages - filled the green and blocked all four roads to about six deep. For a little place like Hurst with no particular affinity to the services that is rather a good turnout.
It seems to me that over the past 20 years or so the Remembrance Day has been growing more popular, if you'll forgive the term. I remember in the seventies there was much talk in the media of doing away with it or at least expecting it to wither away as the veterans died off. That hasn't happened, quite the reverse. I am not sure why. That we have been fighting new wars recently maybe a factor and this being the centenary of the outbreak of WWI may have had a one off effect this year, but I suspect something deeper is going on.
Maybe it is tied in with the continued, perhaps increasing, popularity of the monarchy (something else that was not supposed to have happened).
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
The Mansion Tax is a car crash of epic proportions, only today we had Michael Caine adding his voice to the collections of luvvies who hate the idea, and these are all the sort of champagne socialists that previously would have voted Labour, and include the sort of people that write nice things about them in the newspaper columns and throw them softball questions on the TV.
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
I agree. It is poor policy. Nobody will believe that this new class of tax, effectively a state ground rent on freeholders will be kept to the millionaire class.
You mean poor politics. If it were to creep down and turn into a general land tax that would be excellent policy.
He apparently originally was sympathetic to communism, until he fought in the Korean War, but has voted for Thatcher and Blair and supported Cameron. He is a typical Blue Labour voter that has done well for himself I would say. That is to say, social conservative with a conscience that doesn't want the state taking more of his money than is necessary.
He apparently originally was sympathetic to communism, but has voted for Thatcher and Blair and supported Cameron. He is a typical Blue Labour voter that has done well for himself I would say. That is to say, social conservative with a conscience that doesn't want the state taking more of his money than is necessary.
He was the most prominent celebrity supporter of Cameron in 2010 (closely followed by Tracy Emin).
He apparently originally was sympathetic to communism, but has voted for Thatcher and Blair and supported Cameron. He is a typical Blue Labour voter that has done well for himself I would say. That is to say, social conservative with a conscience that doesn't want the state taking more of his money than is necessary.
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
The Mansion Tax is a car crash of epic proportions, only today we had Michael Caine adding his voice to the collections of luvvies who hate the idea, and these are all the sort of champagne socialists that previously would have voted Labour, and include the sort of people that write nice things about them in the newspaper columns and throw them softball questions on the TV.
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
Imagine if we had some London based polling on the subject
Fair enough. Griff earlier this week isn't, and all those senior journos at the Guardian and the BBC aren't. Ironically all those millionaires in the Shadow Cabinet wont be affected because the pols will be able to claim the mansion tax on parliamentary expenses it seems.
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
I own two houses in London and I support the policy. Rich people can hide away their income and liquid assets. Buildings cannot be hidden.
Do you not think the Russian mafia should pay something ?
He apparently originally was sympathetic to communism, but has voted for Thatcher and Blair and supported Cameron. He is a typical Blue Labour voter that has done well for himself I would say. That is to say, social conservative with a conscience that doesn't want the state taking more of his money than is necessary.
He was the most prominent celebrity supporter of Cameron in 2010 (closely followed by Tracy Emin).
He was a huge supporter of Thatcher alongwith Steve Davis and some others. THe BBC newsreader Jan Leeming being one. It's funny so many BBC news people turn out to be Tories !
Interesting, Mr. Pong, where was that photo taken? I only ask because there more people than ever at our village memorial this morning. By estimation, excluding organised groups, there were upwards of 300 people of all ages - filled the green and blocked all four roads to about six deep. For a little place like Hurst with no particular affinity to the services that is rather a good turnout.
It seems to me that over the past 20 years or so the Remembrance Day has been growing more popular, if you'll forgive the term. I remember in the seventies there was much talk in the media of doing away with it or at least expecting it to wither away as the veterans died off. That hasn't happened, quite the reverse. I am not sure why. That we have been fighting new wars recently maybe a factor and this being the centenary of the outbreak of WWI may have had a one off effect this year, but I suspect something deeper is going on.
Maybe it is tied in with the continued, perhaps increasing, popularity of the monarchy (something else that was not supposed to have happened).
Whatever the reasons, we've experienced the same increase in attendance in Beeston (our largest town). There has also been a marked growth in the number of organisations laying wreaths, which IIRC used to be limited to various official individuals - everyone from a school to a business group to a political club. (At present I think anyone who wants to can take part in the ceremony - at some point perhaps a selection criterion may be necessary: I wouldn't like to see someone from McDonalds laying a wreath.)
I knew many of the crowd today, and wouldn't think that it was really linked to any kind of political leanings or views of the monarchy. Rather, I think it's a combination of the continuing flow of casualties from conflicts and the unpopularity of recent wars - the feeling is widespread that it's awful that lives have been lost in what seems to many to have turned out to be a futile effort.
Fair enough. Griff earlier this week isn't, and all those senior journos at the Guardian and the BBC aren't. Ironically all those millionaires in the Shadow Cabinet wont be affected because the pols will be able to claim the mansion tax on parliamentary expenses it seems.
There was a poll about the Mansion Tax. It was hugely popular. It probably won't be effective because already there are so many loopholes.
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
I own two houses in London and I support the policy. Rich people can hide away their income and liquid assets. Buildings cannot be hidden.
Do you not think the Russian mafia should pay something ?
Do you not think it would be easier to ban foreign ownership thus stopping London housing being used for money laundering and improving affordability, rather than overturning a millennia of property rights?
Mr. Observer, Labour's polling is too strong to consider that the entire socially conservative working class/WWC has jumped ship. However, I do think there has been and continues to be a substantial move directly from Labour to UKIP amongst the working class.
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
"The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. "
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
I own two houses in London and I support the policy. Rich people can hide away their income and liquid assets. Buildings cannot be hidden.
Do you not think the Russian mafia should pay something ?
I think by the time it hits the statute books it will
a) have gone up a lot, because the 100,000 homes over 2m in London each paying the supposed maximum of £3,000 wont raise the 1.2bn Balls claims it will.
b) will have some sort of offset for properties with an outstanding mortgage
c) will have several other loopholes and work around inserted
So that the middle classes will get screwed as usual, and the Russian mafia and the billionaires will have ways to not pay anything as usual.
Interesting, Mr. Pong, where was that photo taken? I only ask because there more people than ever at our village memorial this morning. By estimation, excluding organised groups, there were upwards of 300 people of all ages - filled the green and blocked all four roads to about six deep. For a little place like Hurst with no particular affinity to the services that is rather a good turnout.
It seems to me that over the past 20 years or so the Remembrance Day has been growing more popular, if you'll forgive the term. I remember in the seventies there was much talk in the media of doing away with it or at least expecting it to wither away as the veterans died off. That hasn't happened, quite the reverse. I am not sure why. That we have been fighting new wars recently maybe a factor and this being the centenary of the outbreak of WWI may have had a one off effect this year, but I suspect something deeper is going on.
Maybe it is tied in with the continued, perhaps increasing, popularity of the monarchy (something else that was not supposed to have happened).
Whatever the reasons, we've experienced the same increase in attendance in Beeston (our largest town). There has also been a marked growth in the number of organisations laying wreaths, which IIRC used to be limited to various official individuals - everyone from a school to a business group to a political club. (At present I think anyone who wants to can take part in the ceremony - at some point perhaps a selection criterion may be necessary: I wouldn't like to see someone from McDonalds laying a wreath.)
I knew many of the crowd today, and wouldn't think that it was really linked to any kind of political leanings or views of the monarchy. Rather, I think it's a combination of the continuing flow of casualties from conflicts and the unpopularity of recent wars - the feeling is widespread that it's awful that lives have been lost in what seems to many to have turned out to be a futile effort.
How Nick Palmer voted on Foreign Policy and Defence #
Voted strongly for use of UK military forces in combat operations overseas Voted very strongly for the Iraq war
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
The Mansion Tax is a car crash of epic proportions, only today we had Michael Caine adding his voice to the collections of luvvies who hate the idea, and these are all the sort of champagne socialists that previously would have voted Labour, and include the sort of people that write nice things about them in the newspaper columns and throw them softball questions on the TV.
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
I agree. It is poor policy. Nobody will believe that this new class of tax, effectively a state ground rent on freeholders will be kept to the millionaire class.
You mean poor politics. If it were to creep down and turn into a general land tax that would be excellent policy.
I might agree, if this was what was being honestly discussed, rather than try to introduce it via a backdoor labelled 'don't worry only applies to the rich 1%'.
Oh yes and the Mansion tax will bring even more AB voters streaming into the Labour camp!
The Mansion Tax is a car crash of epic proportions, only today we had Michael Caine adding his voice to the collections of luvvies who hate the idea, and these are all the sort of champagne socialists that previously would have voted Labour, and include the sort of people that write nice things about them in the newspaper columns and throw them softball questions on the TV.
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
I agree. It is poor policy. Nobody will believe that this new class of tax, effectively a state ground rent on freeholders will be kept to the millionaire class.
You mean poor politics. If it were to creep down and turn into a general land tax that would be excellent policy.
I might agree, if this was what was being honestly discussed, rather than try to introduce it via a backdoor labelled 'don't worry only applies to the rich 1%'.
That's not relevant to whether it's good policy or not.
Comments
This isn't particularly inspiring, but it's coherent and a credible alternative to the Tories.
It's possible UKIP could be as bad, or worse, for Labour in the north of England as it is for the Conservatives in the south. Can Labour get the white working class to stop drifting towards kippery?
You also get a continued absence of things that would happen under Con Maj but they can't get past the LibDems. It's not really clear how what the scale of these is, and a continued coalition would work too, but you can't really vote _against_ Con Maj except by voting Lib or Lab depending on the seat.
You are probably correct SO, but what we have seen in the last year is that there is a big difference between identifying with labour and putting a cross in a box.
Those poll scores do not translate into votes (Rochester will be the latest example).
The white working class does not only consist of people who vote UKIP. It is not just brown working class people and elite metropolitans who continue to support Labour, much as you would clearly like that to be so.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29951222
They could have had their replacement in place, for a quick Howard like coronation.
However ED would have to resign, can not see it before the GE.
As Labour have a good chance of becoming the largest party 5/6 and ED next PM 11/10
"But the movement to UKIP has been far greater than the net support that they have lost"
Has it? I don't see it
From Mikes pie chart it seems 30% of UKIPs current support is 2010 Cons.... What was the last Ashcroft for UKIP, 16%?
If it was then 30% of 16 is 4.8% which leaves the Conservatives on about 30% once you subtract it from their 2010 vote doesn't it?
I read on Twitter Miliband will tomorrow attack Cameron over the EU, and acting in Britain's interest. The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more UKIP benefits. Yes, he'll get nods of approval from big business and the Guardian, but smaller businesses are tired of the bureaucratic workload Brussels regulations impose (the vacuum cleaning nonsense is a small but easily understandable example, likewise the fire extinguisher nonsense).
There's an existential threat to both major parties posed by UKIP. It may well only claim one, but neither can take it lightly. The fragmentation we're seeing is a once in a generation opportunity for UKIP, and for other major parties to be seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. It's also a once in a generation opportunity for the SNP to do to Labour what Hannibal did to Varro and Paullus.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, UKIP didn't put in enough effort and still turned Heywood & Middleton from a safe Labour seat to an ultra-marginal. I fear you're being complacent, as Cameron was a couple of years ago.
I suspect it is labour's perceived collapse in Scotland that has really caused this gloom.
Brilliant! He may have unwittingly come up with the perfect way to describe himself, better even than the "omnishambles" they nicked off TTOI for the budget.
EIC no longer, EIATOC rules now
Has a ring to it.
ABC1/C2DE
Con: 37/27
Lab: 31/35
LD: 7/6
UKIP: 13/20
45% of their supporters MAY NOT VOTE !!
If we accept , at face value, the UKIP figures, we are, by implication, also assuming that turnout will increase at the GE next year.
The idea that the previous non voters will still be non voters is based on the assumption that they failed to vote out of apathy rather than a position of "none of the above". An assumption that I think is very deeply flawed.
Normal voter version: Moderate but On Your Side.
Politically-sophisticated version: Substantially less evil, only a little bit more stupid.
The very people that both Tory and Labour need to vote for them to obtain a parliamentary majority.
It should read: "The more Miliband stands up for the EU and migrations, the more AB voters it adds to its columns since they now think the Tories because of UKIP pressure is on a slippery slope out of the Single Market Thatcher negotiated"
But accepting that you mean people that didn't vote last time are less likely to vote, you are still wrong.
The 45% in Mikes chart includes "others", it isn't just 2010 DNV
2010 UKIP is probably about 20 of the 45 you speak of, and if you don't think any 2010 BNP voters have switched to UKIP you are a rarity amongst PBers!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827026/Voters-Cameron-EU-cash-half-Mail-Sunday-poll-say-PM-right-stand-Brussels-1-75bn-bill.html
Or any one else for that matter, so we could have a bet.
What really worries the people running this country is the C12DEs splitting from the ABs and forming an electable party that would be unequivocably for the C12DEs and make life much harder for the ABs.
Labour did that in the early 20th Century, leading to a long overdue rebalancing of society without the violence experienced in France and Russia. For this reason Labour have been given the benefit of the doubt for a long time by many C12DEs. However the penny is now firmly dropping that Labour has been taken over by ABs and will only act in the interest of ABs, hence the rise in UKIP and the SNP in Scotland.
ABC1: +6
C2DE: -8
The sight of Blair at an occasion like this is truly hideous.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/08/catalonia-freedom-spain-independence-referendum
However, just as the Tories are losing (roughly) twice as many voters to UKIP as Labour they are also gaining (roughly) half as many voters from the Lib Dems as Labour. It's not a great set of electoral mathematics. There are still many undecided voters, though.
The more Labour moves to pander to the Guardianista and the metropolitan liberals, the more they will peel off to UKIP, who offer then social conservatism, and with their immigration policy, one of the best routes available to higher wages.
Similarly the more Cameron panders to the orange bookers and metropolitan liberals, the more the shire Tories will peel off as well. Which is doubly stupid, because most metropolitan liberals wont be seen dead voting Tory.
Farage hardly has to lift a finger and the votes roll in.
He sounds and looks like a rather nerdy student, who isn't as bright as he thinks he is.
But what is very interesting is the fact that some Labour backbenchers genuinely don't believe that the party can win the next GE with Ed Miliband as their Leader, and that suggests he is becoming an issue on the doorstep amongst Labour and non Labour voters. Antifrank, your right, we do need to focus on and better understand this third key voter element. Lets for the meantime call them shy Tories, although I suspect this group of voters now contain some of those Labour/Floating voters who simple cannot bring themselves to vote for Ed Miliband.
http://imgur.com/jFdDkqy
It seems everyone forgot....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dudley_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dudley_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If Respect split the Labour vote, UKIP at 5/1 is big
How important is the Mansion Tax, as presently proposed, outside Greater London?
As usual Labour fails to understand aspiration. Even C2 Londoners are going to hate the tax, because they are going to suspect it will creep down over time with the governments ever more voracious appetite for money, so that in 10 years time its less than 1 million, and house prices will continue to inflate, and almost everyone in the capital is paying. The tax doesn't allow for mortgages, so someone with a 1.9m mortgage on a 2.1m property pays a sack of tax, where as someone buying a 1.9m property in cash doesn't. Lots of young Londoners who don't currently own a 1m house, hope to in 5-10 years time, and don't want to pay a bucket of tax on top of the already usurious stamp duty they currently pay.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/09/labour-discontent-with-leader-could-lose-them-lelection?commentpage=1
It seems to me that over the past 20 years or so the Remembrance Day has been growing more popular, if you'll forgive the term. I remember in the seventies there was much talk in the media of doing away with it or at least expecting it to wither away as the veterans died off. That hasn't happened, quite the reverse. I am not sure why. That we have been fighting new wars recently maybe a factor and this being the centenary of the outbreak of WWI may have had a one off effect this year, but I suspect something deeper is going on.
Maybe it is tied in with the continued, perhaps increasing, popularity of the monarchy (something else that was not supposed to have happened).
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c8zgm75cal/ES_London_Omni_Results_140813_Mansion_Tax.pdf
Do you not think the Russian mafia should pay something ?
How long before £2 million becomes £1 million? Or £500,000 ?
I knew many of the crowd today, and wouldn't think that it was really linked to any kind of political leanings or views of the monarchy. Rather, I think it's a combination of the continuing flow of casualties from conflicts and the unpopularity of recent wars - the feeling is widespread that it's awful that lives have been lost in what seems to many to have turned out to be a futile effort.
a) have gone up a lot, because the 100,000 homes over 2m in London each paying the supposed maximum of £3,000 wont raise the 1.2bn Balls claims it will.
b) will have some sort of offset for properties with an outstanding mortgage
c) will have several other loopholes and work around inserted
So that the middle classes will get screwed as usual, and the Russian mafia and the billionaires will have ways to not pay anything as usual.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827172/George-Bush-reveals-one-regret-invading-Iraq-2003-paved-way-rise-ISIS.html
How Nick Palmer voted on Foreign Policy and Defence #
Voted strongly for use of UK military forces in combat operations overseas
Voted very strongly for the Iraq war
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2 mins2 minutes ago
I named Cooper & Umunna but was too tactful to name the 4 other shad Cab mins who wd be better leaders, but feel free http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-leadership-there-are-several-in-the-shadow-cabinet-who-would-be-better-than-ed-miliband-9849120.html …