Interesting story from Leeds where the council has avoided the Bedroom Tax (it would have cost it more to rehouse) simply by reclassifying spare bedrooms as 'Non Specific Rooms'. Another watertight piece of policymaking by the government: not only does the tax increase public spending, it can also be circumnavigated simply by calling a spade a shovel. Oh. http://m.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/29/leeds-council-bedroom-tax-solution
Are you enjoying your guest editorship a little too much?
Whilst the polling / media narrative could raise concerns for Labour / Ed Miliband, is that really a big thing at the moment?
Even a Tory like yourself must admit that it's not.
It's TSE's site right now. He has an editorial agenda just as Mike does. Endless Ed is Crap threads may be tedious to some, but others find them very reassuring. And when you get down to it, Ed is pretty crap and a real drag on Labour. Enjoy yourself by seeing how many ways there are to discuss the same subject over a relatively short period of time.
Fair enough. Though I could just read Dan Hodges columns for that sort of analysis, and I'd rather stick pins in my eyes!
In what way do you think Ed is a "real drag" on Labour by the way? Would a realistic alternative, say Cooper, have them in the high 40s in the polls do you think?
I think with another leader Labour would be doing better.
Who?
Of those who stood in 2010 I imagine only Abbott would be doing worse, Ed's brother and Andy Burnham would be doing better. I'd say that Cooper would also be doing better. But Ed's going nowhere. Labour are stuck with him.
I do not think Ed M irredemable, he is too much of a blank cipher to have totally written himself off yet. He does need to demonstrate a break from the financial profligacy of the Last Labour government, and he needs to do it soon.
The best way would be to move Ed Balls away from anything to do with money, and to promise to stick to coalition deficit reduction targets, even if this involves tax rises instead of spending cuts.
It was a key part of New Labours success in 97 to establish economic credibility, and that needs to be replicated.
The last thing Labour should do is validate the Tory argument that our problems are due to Government "profligacy".
Are you enjoying your guest editorship a little too much?
Whilst the polling / media narrative could raise concerns for Labour / Ed Miliband, is that really a big thing at the moment?
Even a Tory like yourself must admit that it's not.
It's TSE's site right now. He has an editorial agenda just as Mike does. Endless Ed is Crap threads may be tedious to some, but others find them very reassuring. And when you get down to it, Ed is pretty crap and a real drag on Labour. Enjoy yourself by seeing how many ways there are to discuss the same subject over a relatively short period of time.
Fair enough. Though I could just read Dan Hodges columns for that sort of analysis, and I'd rather stick pins in my eyes!
In what way do you think Ed is a "real drag" on Labour by the way? Would a realistic alternative, say Cooper, have them in the high 40s in the polls do you think?
He does not have the look or feel of a credible leader. He comes across very poorly on television and radio. His communication skills generally are very poor; he fails to connect. I think he has some interesting and important ideas, but if he can't get them across to voters he is a waste of time. I think with another leader Labour would be doing better. Ed should be leading a policy unit and doing his thing away from public view. But he is in charge and that is not going to change. Those of us hoping for an end to Tory rule had better hope Ed's many weak points are cancelled out by the general toxicity of the Tory brand.
It is still too early: the voters aren't listening (to either party - they have long since stopped listening to the Tories, if they ever were). If Labour start releasing policy proposals now they simply take the pressure off the government.
MSPs: online abuse of Chris Hoy following independence comments is 'shameful'
Online abuse that greeted Olympic cyclist Sir Chris Hoy's comments on independence has been criticised by politicians.
The SNP has joined Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie and Scotland Office Minister David Mundell in condemning the comments.
Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live yesterday, Sir Chris he said does not want to enter the "hornet's nest" campaign.
He said he is a proud Scot who is proud to have competed for Britain but said Scotland lacks adequate training facilities.
Independence would weaken the remaining British team and pose a challenge for Scotland's new national athletes, he said.
"It's not to say it's impossible but it would just be a different challenge," said Sir Chris.
While many online commentators praised Sir Chris's tone and urged politicians and journalists to respect his plea to keep him out of the debate, other comments were seen as abusive.
Sir Chris was called "a traitor", an "Uncle Tom", a "typical Scots Tory naysayer", a "public schoolboy" and a member of "an English dominated national sports program which concentrates on advancing the English cause" on several online forums.
Are you enjoying your guest editorship a little too much?
Whilst the polling / media narrative could raise concerns for Labour / Ed Miliband, is that really a big thing at the moment?
Even a Tory like yourself must admit that it's not.
It's TSE's site right now. He has an editorial agenda just as Mike does. Endless Ed is Crap threads may be tedious to some, but others find them very reassuring. And when you get down to it, Ed is pretty crap and a real drag on Labour. Enjoy yourself by seeing how many ways there are to discuss the same subject over a relatively short period of time.
Fair enough. Though I could just read Dan Hodges columns for that sort of analysis, and I'd rather stick pins in my eyes!
In what way do you think Ed is a "real drag" on Labour by the way? Would a realistic alternative, say Cooper, have them in the high 40s in the polls do you think?
I think with another leader Labour would be doing better.
Who?
Of those who stood in 2010 I imagine only Abbott would be doing worse, Ed's brother and Andy Burnham would be doing better. I'd say that Cooper would also be doing better. But Ed's going nowhere. Labour are stuck with him.
I do not think Ed M irredemable, he is too much of a blank cipher to have totally written himself off yet. He does need to demonstrate a break from the financial profligacy of the Last Labour government, and he needs to do it soon.
The best way would be to move Ed Balls away from anything to do with money, and to promise to stick to coalition deficit reduction targets, even if this involves tax rises instead of spending cuts.
It was a key part of New Labours success in 97 to establish economic credibility, and that needs to be replicated.
The last thing Labour should do is validate the Tory argument that our problems are due to Government "profligacy".
I would not expect Labour to use the term profligacy, but they will need to find a form of words to credibly announce an end to deficit spending. The books could be as easily balanced with tax rises as spending cuts, but they do need to be balanced.
Either do this or face a Hollande like downward spiral. France without the sun or food is not a good prospect.
Lebo & Norpoth's model predicts the Tories will win the Popular Vote in 2015 by 7.1%!
No change since 2010!
Rod, isn't that extremely similar to what the Local Elections model is also showing (that line of best fit you posted a couple of days ago)?
Correct! 7.63% Tory lead.
It doesn't seem credible, and hard to see another coalition. A minority govt would be interesting but unstable, and the financial markets hate instability.
Rod - out of interest why did you say your prediction was for a Con 3% lead?
I appreciate no model will be perfect. But if you think the Local elections model is a good predictor then surely what the model says should be the central forecast - ie it's just as likely the actual result will be higher or lower.
Now we have this other model as well giving a 7% lead what is your own latest forecast?
Rod - out of interest why did you say your prediction was for a Con 3% lead?
I appreciate no model will be perfect. But if you think the Local elections model is a good predictor then surely what the model says should be the central forecast - ie it's just as likely the actual result will be higher or lower.
Now we have this other model as well giving a 7% lead what is your own latest forecast?
If still 3%, why?
Gut feeling, I suppose. A guestimate. As you say no model is perfect (so forget about the equally higher or lower argument), and we're still two years away from the election.
But one thing is clear. Miliband is a dud, who could still be transmuted into PM by the alchemy of FPTP...
Are you enjoying your guest editorship a little too much?
Whilst the polling / media narrative could raise concerns for Labour / Ed Miliband, is that really a big thing at the moment?
Even a Tory like yourself must admit that it's not.
It's TSE's site right now. He has an editorial agenda just as Mike does. Endless Ed is Crap threads may be tedious to some, but others find them very reassuring. And when you get down to it, Ed is pretty crap and a real drag on Labour. Enjoy yourself by seeing how many ways there are to discuss the same subject over a relatively short period of time.
Fair enough. Though I could just read Dan Hodges columns for that sort of analysis, and I'd rather stick pins in my eyes!
In what way do you think Ed is a "real drag" on Labour by the way? Would a realistic alternative, say Cooper, have them in the high 40s in the polls do you think?
I think with another leader Labour would be doing better.
Who?
Of those who stood in 2010 I imagine only Abbott would be doing worse, Ed's brother and Andy Burnham would be doing better. I'd say that Cooper would also be doing better. But Ed's going nowhere. Labour are stuck with him.
I do not think Ed M irredemable, he is too much of a blank cipher to have totally written himself off yet. He does need to demonstrate a break from the financial profligacy of the Last Labour government, and he needs to do it soon.
The best way would be to move Ed Balls away from anything to do with money, and to promise to stick to coalition deficit reduction targets, even if this involves tax rises instead of spending cuts.
It was a key part of New Labours success in 97 to establish economic credibility, and that needs to be replicated.
The last thing Labour should do is validate the Tory argument that our problems are due to Government "profligacy".
I would not expect Labour to use the term profligacy, but they will need to find a form of words to credibly announce an end to deficit spending. The books could be as easily balanced with tax rises as spending cuts, but they do need to be balanced.
Either do this or face a Hollande like downward spiral. France without the sun or food is not a good prospect.
Surely there's a big difference between being two years from a GE in this cycle, and being two years from a GE in the past, in that we now have fixed term parliaments ? Previously we didn't know we were 2 years from an election. I reckon this disadvantages the incumbent i.e. Cameron because he doesn't have the option of cutting and running in 2014.
Comments
I think we've done it right. The signs stay the same for PM[t-1] and PM[t-2], and we'd only have to multiply PM[t] by -1 if Cameron was Labour...
Original Paper
http://primarymodel.com/Press_files/PM_Pend_BJPS06.PDF
http://m.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/29/leeds-council-bedroom-tax-solution
I agree, but ...
What FUN!!!
Cameron's doing alright... at the moment...
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/2746/languages?page=1#
MSPs: online abuse of Chris Hoy following independence comments is 'shameful'
Online abuse that greeted Olympic cyclist Sir Chris Hoy's comments on independence has been criticised by politicians.
The SNP has joined Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie and Scotland Office Minister David Mundell in condemning the comments.
Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live yesterday, Sir Chris he said does not want to enter the "hornet's nest" campaign.
He said he is a proud Scot who is proud to have competed for Britain but said Scotland lacks adequate training facilities.
Independence would weaken the remaining British team and pose a challenge for Scotland's new national athletes, he said.
"It's not to say it's impossible but it would just be a different challenge," said Sir Chris.
While many online commentators praised Sir Chris's tone and urged politicians and journalists to respect his plea to keep him out of the debate, other comments were seen as abusive.
Sir Chris was called "a traitor", an "Uncle Tom", a "typical Scots Tory naysayer", a "public schoolboy" and a member of "an English dominated national sports program which concentrates on advancing the English cause" on several online forums.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/msps-online-abuse-of-chris-hoy-following-independence-comments-is-shameful.1369843346
Either do this or face a Hollande like downward spiral. France without the sun or food is not a good prospect.
Knowing Labour, two elections...?
LOOOOOOOL!
'Voters trust Miliband less than Brown' - The Times
I appreciate no model will be perfect. But if you think the Local elections model is a good predictor then surely what the model says should be the central forecast - ie it's just as likely the actual result will be higher or lower.
Now we have this other model as well giving a 7% lead what is your own latest forecast?
If still 3%, why?
Tease me...
But one thing is clear. Miliband is a dud, who could still be transmuted into PM by the alchemy of FPTP...
3/1 ?
Sure - usual sum or do you want to lower it to reflect it's more of an outside shot than we usually bet on? (I'm happy with either.)
Sentimental Labour will never decapitate its leader, and the Dork probably really believes he can "win"...
And who's to say he's totally wrong? Brown was only about five seats away from clinging on via "a rainbow" in 2010...
FPTP - Labour have a good chance unless they're totally slaughtered at the polls...
Previously we didn't know we were 2 years from an election.
I reckon this disadvantages the incumbent i.e. Cameron because he doesn't have the option of cutting and running in 2014.
Good point. Brown fumbled his chance in 2007. (Lebo & Norpoth think he would have won)
Cameron doesn't have that luxury...
Wyre Forest, 2013 local elections:
Con: 6,007 (25.4%)
UKIP: 5,578 (23.6%)
Lab: 4,917 (20.8%)
Health Concern: 4,670 (19.7%)
Liberal: 1,233 (5.2%)
Ind: 580 (2.5%)
Green: 565 (2.4%)
LD: 39 (0.2%)
Others: 69 (0.3%)
Total: 23,658
Electorate: 77,906
Turnout: 30.4%
Good spot. The seat has a history of surprises...
http://new.shropshire.gov.uk/elections-2013/unitary/results-full-text-list/
The Tories won by 79% to 21%.
http://pro.moneyweek.com/myk-eob/LMYKP529/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFhxazVGMnpSNHk2VDRTNTFZb1lLWEE#gid=0