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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead in Rochester

News of the poll comes shortly after today’s disappointment for the purples in the S Yorkshire PCC by-election when LAB came home with more than 50% of the vote. UKIP had put a lot into the fight with hard-hitting ads linking LAB to the Rotherham sex abuse scandal.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Blimey, after all the Tories threw at it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "UKIP had put a lot into the fight with hard-hitting ads linking LAB to the Rotherham sex abuse scandal. "

    What were the results for the PCC in the Rotherham area?
  • The_Last_Boy_ScoutThe_Last_Boy_Scout Posts: 174
    Something of an up and down day for Ukip, it would seem
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    The right wing vote share is up 27%, compared to 2010.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    LD down 2% to just 1%.
    Just when you thought the LD can't fall any lower.

    Is this the moment the LD are beaten by the Monster Raving Loonies?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    1% - Am I right in thinking the Lib Dems are insured against lost deposits?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Jonathan said:

    Blimey, after all the Tories threw at it.

    Don't worry, next time a Tory defects, they will be REALLY, REALLLY motivated and he will be super despised!

    They'll absolutely throw the kitchen sink at that one.

    Probably go off about EVENS... #value

    Reckless was always going to win easily they'll say...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    For the Tories to have a chance, they need Labour to recover those votes from UKIP.
  • The_Last_Boy_ScoutThe_Last_Boy_Scout Posts: 174
    The Labour vote is collapsing here. Perhaps the more expert among us might speculate as to what that means for the Conservatives in seats where Ukip are the main challenger
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Hi Nigel, keep up the good work!

    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 3m3 minutes ago
    A @Survation poll for @unitetheunion has just put #UKIP up by 15 points in #Rochester. That's up 8 from last week: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/10/31/exclusive-survation-has-mark-reckless-moving-to-a-15-lead-in-rochester/ …
    0 replies 1 retweet 1 favorite
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite1
    More
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SimonStClare said:

    1% - Am I right in thinking the Lib Dems are insured against lost deposits?

    Who is their mad insurer?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    The Labour vote is collapsing here. Perhaps the more expert among us might speculate as to what that means for the Conservatives in seats where Ukip are the main challenger

    Well, there was a theory that Labour voters would vote tactically for the Conservatives to keep out UKIP, but I think that's gone out of the window.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    Something of an up and down day for Ukip, it would seem

    Far better day for Nigel than Ed or Dave.
  • PopeyePopeye Posts: 3
    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Sean_F said:

    For the Tories to have a chance, they need Labour to recover those votes from UKIP.

    No chance.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Speedy said:

    SimonStClare said:

    1% - Am I right in thinking the Lib Dems are insured against lost deposits?

    Who is their mad insurer?
    No idea - but sure Mr Senior mentioned something about it last week. - perhaps only GE15 ?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    Three polls together in order (Survation, Comres, Survation)

    UKIP 40, 43, 48
    Con 30, 31, 33
    Lab 25.21.16
    LD 3,2,1

    UKIP Lead 9, 13, 15

    The Tories throwing the kitchen sink at it has shifted their share by 3% and now there are rumours they are giving up

    Tories on away day put away hopes of winning Rochester

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/tories-on-away-day-put-away-hopes-of-winning-rochester/

    Or did they spend all their money on the primary?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    edited October 2014
    SimonStClare said:

    1% - Am I right in thinking the Lib Dems are insured against lost deposits?

    Insurance is a very poor form of risk management for high likelyhood, small population events.

    They may have a pre-existing contract for all by elections in this parliament, signed in happier times, but they're going to lose fortunes in the GE. At £500 a pop it will be a material amount in their overall campaign finances.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    The 2nd favourite not winning in a 2 horse race??? That's a flop in anyones book ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Depressing. It must be a horrible thought that you share your living space with so many who share the values of UKIP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    The Labour vote is collapsing here. Perhaps the more expert among us might speculate as to what that means for the Conservatives in seats where Ukip are the main challenger

    It means anyone betting on Thanet South for Labour needs their head examining.
  • The_Last_Boy_ScoutThe_Last_Boy_Scout Posts: 174
    Pulpstar said:

    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    Something of an up and down day for Ukip, it would seem

    Far better day for Nigel than Ed or Dave.
    I would agree with your analysis there Pulpstar
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    How many respondents had the faintest idea what the so-called 'controversial' TTIP plan actually means?

    Leading questions - tut tut.

    Whether that affects the headline voting intention is another matter. A 15 point lead is plausible enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    The 2nd favourite not winning in a 2 horse race??? That's a flop in anyones book ;)
    Mike's tips are pretty good, but recently Antifrank's have been the gold standard.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Roger said:

    Depressing. It must be a horrible thought that you share your living space with so many who share the values of UKIP.

    To paraphrase a scene from Downfall:
    "Don't cry, you still have TSE"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Richard nabavi's analysis on this is looking a bit shakey too, must say.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    How many respondents had the faintest idea what the so-called 'controversial' TTIP plan actually means?

    Leading questions - tut tut.

    Whether that affects the headline voting intention is another matter. A 15 point lead is plausible enough.

    I did think the same - not even Mike could remember the name of it when it was written on the graph he was tweeting.
  • The_Last_Boy_ScoutThe_Last_Boy_Scout Posts: 174
    Sean_F said:

    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    The Labour vote is collapsing here. Perhaps the more expert among us might speculate as to what that means for the Conservatives in seats where Ukip are the main challenger

    Well, there was a theory that Labour voters would vote tactically for the Conservatives to keep out UKIP, but I think that's gone out of the window.
    Many Labour supporters have such an instinctive opposition to the Conservative Party they would rather vote for a significantly more rightwing party than our more moderate Blue colleagues. It is, as it is often said, a funny old world
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Sean_F said:

    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    The Labour vote is collapsing here. Perhaps the more expert among us might speculate as to what that means for the Conservatives in seats where Ukip are the main challenger

    Well, there was a theory that Labour voters would vote tactically for the Conservatives to keep out UKIP, but I think that's gone out of the window.
    Just a bit
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    The 2nd favourite not winning in a 2 horse race??? That's a flop in anyones book ;)
    Mike's tips are pretty good, but recently Antifrank's have been the gold standard.
    Cough, splutter, cough, splutter
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard nabavi's analysis on this is looking a bit shakey too, must say.

    Indeed, and to think that UKIP in Rochester are getting close to their Clacton numbers with momentum on their side and 3 weeks to go.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Here's a thought. Could the Tories bombarding Labour voters with canvassing, MP's, leaflets and letters in Rochester be driving them into UKIP's arms?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    OGH: Tories are up two points not down two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    The 2nd favourite not winning in a 2 horse race??? That's a flop in anyones book ;)
    Mike's tips are pretty good, but recently Antifrank's have been the gold standard.
    Cough, splutter, cough, splutter
    Yours are pretty good too :)

    Btw My advice to everyone in this election would be to STAY AT HOME.

    Nothing to do with the fact I'm on unders for the turnout...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited October 2014
    why is everyone recording this as tory's falling????
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    manofkent2014 said:

    Here's a thought. Could the Tories bombarding Labour voters with canvassing, MP's, leaflets and letters in Rochester be driving them into UKIP's arms?

    I said it was a bad idea to remind voters how much they hate the PM.
  • The_Last_Boy_ScoutThe_Last_Boy_Scout Posts: 174
    manofkent2014 said:

    Here's a thought. Could the Tories bombarding Labour voters with canvassing, MP's, leaflets and letters in Rochester be driving them into UKIP's arms?

    I would think that very possible, Kentish Man. A sort of "over my dead body" effect, if you will
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    why is everyone recording this as tory's falling????

    They aren't, but Reckless is going to romp home.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    An interesting question arises now, it seems that Labour voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of the Tories and Tory voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of Labour.
    What impact would that have in the GE?
  • PopeyePopeye Posts: 3
    I think it unfair as well that people have been blocked by Mike ( on twitter) for pointing out his Tips are not great
  • PopeyePopeye Posts: 3
    And that he does so much after timing
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    why is everyone recording this as tory's falling????

    Because they are falling further behind UKIP and have thrown the 'kitchen sink' at it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    It seems as if though Labour voters have got the hang of FPTP far more than Conservatives have too judging by Rochester/South Yorks today.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard nabavi's analysis on this is looking a bit shakey too, must say.

    Oi! I was closer than you were on the PCC! (But Pong was the Gold Standard, I believe)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Popeye said:

    I think it unfair as well that people have been blocked by Mike ( on twitter) for pointing out his Tips are not great

    Mike's tips are fine.

    Quit yer whining !
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The big bad wolf resigns. Fiona is gone!
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29855265

    But who will the government attempt to put in her place?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    An interesting question arises now, it seems that Labour voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of the Tories and Tory voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of Labour.
    What impact would that have in the GE?

    Add 'in a By-Election' to the end of that sentence and it reads better. Substitute LibDem for UKIP in the sentence and it would also have been true before the Coalition.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    In fact here's a thought. Could Grant Shapps be sacked as Party Chairman if the Tories lose Rochester by this or a greater margin?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    logical_song said:

    Speedy said:

    An interesting question arises now, it seems that Labour voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of the Tories and Tory voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of Labour.
    What impact would that have in the GE?

    Add 'in a By-Election' to the end of that sentence and it reads better. Substitute LibDem for UKIP in the sentence and it would also have been true before the Coalition.
    So UKIP will get 57 seats?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Steven Woolfe MEP ‏@Steven_Woolfe 9m9 minutes ago
    1st preference votes Doncaster PCC
    LAB - 45.4%
    #UKIP - 33.7%
    CON - 14.0%
    EDEM - 6.9%
    Again vote Tory get Labour
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    manofkent2014 said:

    In fact here's a thought. Could Grant Shapps be sacked as Party Chairman if the Tories lose Rochester by this or a greater margin?

    Probably, if Cameron survives the scapegoat will be Shapps.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard nabavi's analysis on this is looking a bit shakey too, must say.

    Oi! I was closer than you were on the PCC! (But Pong was the Gold Standard, I believe)
    I did get the PCC slightly wrong, thought it would go to a second round at least... anyway good old generous Will Hills made sure I didn't lose any money.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    logical_song said:

    Speedy said:

    An interesting question arises now, it seems that Labour voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of the Tories and Tory voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of Labour.
    What impact would that have in the GE?

    Add 'in a By-Election' to the end of that sentence and it reads better. Substitute LibDem for UKIP in the sentence and it would also have been true before the Coalition.
    So UKIP will get 57 seats?
    Good point, I should have said 'stir for forty years.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think Reckless could end up receiving around 50-53% because the trend is in that direction and there are almost three weeks still to go.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I think about 70% of voters are lieing on that TTIP question by the way.

    Or put it this way "Do you like David Cameron" would get a STRIKINGLY similiar result.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    UKIP threw a lot at the S.Yorks PCC and flopped, as they will flop on May 7th.

    I've been around the block with this sort of nonsense sooooooo many times. When will we learn? The General Election will come down to Labour vs Conservative as it has done ever since 1945. It's the reality.

    And of course people protest in by elections. That's what they are for. Today, at the real thing in the PCC for S.Yorks, UKIP despite all their efforts under-performed.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Cameron and his mob throwing the kitchen sink at this.

    Complete disaster for them.

    Only Labour can beat UKIP, the Tories just roll over and have their tummies tickled.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2014
    Perhaps Labour-defecting UKIP voters are voting UKIP because they prefer them to Labour, rather than any tactics????? Just like the SNP.

    Up in Yorkshire today, Labour were well down in three of the four constituencies to UKIP.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sorry, OGH, this is garbage.

    If you asked voters to explain what TTIP is, and the impact on the NHS, I bet that less than 5% would have a clue.

    What the pollsters have asked is the following.

    "I am going to ask you about something. By definition that makes it interesting. If it is interesting it is controversial. Hmmh. And it affects the NHS. The NHS is a good thing. A controversial thing affecting the NHS. Sounds like a bad idea. Should that nice Mr Cameron exclude the NHS from TTIP? I don't know what it is. But I'm smart, so I need to have an opinion. What should I say? Well, it's a bad thing. And the NHS is a good thing. Should it be excluded? Of course it should!"
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Now that it seems Reckless has this one in the bag, the question is whether it's going to trigger any further defections?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Charles said:

    Sorry, OGH, this is garbage.

    If you asked voters to explain what TTIP is, and the impact on the NHS, I bet that less than 5% would have a clue.

    What the pollsters have asked is the following.

    "I am going to ask you about something. By definition that makes it interesting. If it is interesting it is controversial. Hmmh. And it affects the NHS. The NHS is a good thing. A controversial thing affecting the NHS. Sounds like a bad idea. Should that nice Mr Cameron exclude the NHS from TTIP? I don't know what it is. But I'm smart, so I need to have an opinion. What should I say? Well, it's a bad thing. And the NHS is a good thing. Should it be excluded? Of course it should!"

    Pulpstar said:

    I think about 70% of voters are lieing on that TTIP question by the way.

    Or put it this way "Do you like David Cameron" would get a STRIKINGLY similiar result.

  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    I wonder if UKIP losing the PCC election might be a blessing for them in the long run. Any minor screw ups would be pounced upon by the media and some of the blame would be deflected from Labour.

    Also reinforces the view that you can put a chimp in a red rosette up North and they'd still get voted in.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 2014



    I've been around the block with this sort of nonsense sooooooo many times. When will we learn? The General Election will come down to Labour vs Conservative as it has done ever since 1945. It's the reality.

    And of course people protest in by elections. That's what they are for. Today, at the real thing in the PCC for S.Yorks, UKIP despite all their efforts under-performed.

    I'm afraid whether you like it or not there is a new 'reality'. Two party politics is dead.
  • beast_in_blackbeast_in_black Posts: 28
    Talk about a loaded question.

    Shouldnt an accurate question be simply:

    'what issue is most important at the moment'?

    Of course people will mention health when it comes to specifically your family.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    AndyJS said:

    I think Reckless could end up receiving around 50-53% because the trend is in that direction and there are almost three weeks still to go.

    Not much different than Clacton.
    There is a possibility that Reckless will increase his majority like Carswell did.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Speedy said:

    An interesting question arises now, it seems that Labour voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of the Tories and Tory voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of Labour.
    What impact would that have in the GE?

    There are two bands of seats where one party is too far ahead of the other to make it a marginal, but not far enough ahead to avoid losing due to tactical UKIP voting.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    audreyanne said:

    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    UKIP threw a lot at the S.Yorks PCC and flopped, as they will flop on May 7th.

    I've been around the block with this sort of nonsense sooooooo many times. When will we learn? The General Election will come down to Labour vs Conservative as it has done ever since 1945. It's the reality.

    And of course people protest in by elections. That's what they are for. Today, at the real thing in the PCC for S.Yorks, UKIP despite all their efforts under-performed.
    I mostly agree. BUT the Tory/Labour percentage has been eroding for decades. Are you happy to see any Party ruling on only one third of the vote, or would you prefer a proportional system?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Hugh said:

    Only Labour can beat UKIP,

    Losing votes to them everywhere except Nick Clegg's back yard is a pretty novel way of showing it.


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Popeye said:

    And that he does so much after timing

    If you're just coming on here to bitch about our host you can sod off back where you came from.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Looking like there might be a swing from Labour to the Tories here.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Roger said:

    Depressing. It must be a horrible thought that you share your living space with so many who share the values of UKIP.

    Yep. Must be like PB, only in real life. Grubby and nasty. Yuck.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The anti-Tory feeling is greater than the anti-Ukip feeling but there is plenty of time for anti-Ukip votes from anti-Tory voters to switch.I can see Ukip crashing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Charles said:

    Sorry, OGH, this is garbage.

    If you asked voters to explain what TTIP is, and the impact on the NHS, I bet that less than 5% would have a clue.

    What the pollsters have asked is the following.

    "I am going to ask you about something. By definition that makes it interesting. If it is interesting it is controversial. Hmmh. And it affects the NHS. The NHS is a good thing. A controversial thing affecting the NHS. Sounds like a bad idea. Should that nice Mr Cameron exclude the NHS from TTIP? I don't know what it is. But I'm smart, so I need to have an opinion. What should I say? Well, it's a bad thing. And the NHS is a good thing. Should it be excluded? Of course it should!"

    Walk down the street and ask people what TTIP is - I would be amazed if even 1% of people had actually heard of it.

    Of course people will venture an opinion as they will pretend to have heard of it.

    But ask them what it is - less than 1% will be able to answer.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Charles said:

    Popeye said:

    And that he does so much after timing

    If you're just coming on here to bitch about our host you can sod off back where you came from.
    Seconded.
  • beast_in_blackbeast_in_black Posts: 28
    edited October 2014
    audreyanne said:

    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    UKIP threw a lot at the S.Yorks PCC and flopped, as they will flop on May 7th.

    I've been around the block with this sort of nonsense sooooooo many times. When will we learn? The General Election will come down to Labour vs Conservative as it has done ever since 1945. It's the reality.

    And of course people protest in by elections. That's what they are for. Today, at the real thing in the PCC for S.Yorks, UKIP despite all their efforts under-performed.
    Oh come off it, everyone underperformed. 14% turnout and almost 80% postal voting? 3 way split on the right too. Labour were the only option on the left.

    I dont think UKIP have anything to lose sleep over.

    And anyway why do you think people 'protest' in the first place? Do you think it is a good thing that they dont get listened to?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    The big bad wolf resigns. Fiona is gone!
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29855265

    But who will the government attempt to put in her place?

    The reality, given that there are allegations involving people in the London establishment, virtually any senior lawyer or judge (I am making the assumption that judicial experience would be useful in chairing an inquiry of this nature) will have met people tangentially or directly associated with the subject matter.

    But more to the point,now that two qualified people have been dragged through the mud, who is going to let their name go forward?

    This is a victory for those who want everything swept under the carpet, nothing more.
  • RightChuckRightChuck Posts: 110
    NHS important, Labour losing votes.

    Interesting.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    ThomasNashe said:

    Now that it seems Reckless has this one in the bag, the question is whether it's going to trigger any further defections?

    If there is no leadership vote then its almost certain that there will be more defections.
    So far both defectors have better prospects by simply not standing as Tories.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    An interesting question arises now, it seems that Labour voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of the Tories and Tory voters are willing to vote UKIP to get rid of Labour.
    What impact would that have in the GE?

    There are two bands of seats where one party is too far ahead of the other to make it a marginal, but not far enough ahead to avoid losing due to tactical UKIP voting.
    Yes, I think that UKIP intervention will affect the number Tory and Labour seats (unpredicatbly) even though they will only garner a few seats for themselves.
    For betting purposes I guess that means it will be better to focus on individual seats rather than the GE outcome.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    RightChuck said:

    NHS important, Labour losing votes.

    Interesting.

    Labour have their feet up, munching on popcorn, enjoying watching the blue on bluer cat-fight.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    AndyJS said:

    I think Reckless could end up receiving around 50-53% because the trend is in that direction and there are almost three weeks still to go.

    Look at Survation's level of error in previous Tory held seats.

    The overstated gap in Newark 1 (just one week before the election ) was 11 points, in Clacton it was 9.

    Both suggest that the gap on the day will be about 5.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Charles said:

    Sorry, OGH, this is garbage.

    If you asked voters to explain what TTIP is, and the impact on the NHS, I bet that less than 5% would have a clue.

    What the pollsters have asked is the following.

    "I am going to ask you about something. By definition that makes it interesting. If it is interesting it is controversial. Hmmh. And it affects the NHS. The NHS is a good thing. A controversial thing affecting the NHS. Sounds like a bad idea. Should that nice Mr Cameron exclude the NHS from TTIP? I don't know what it is. But I'm smart, so I need to have an opinion. What should I say? Well, it's a bad thing. And the NHS is a good thing. Should it be excluded? Of course it should!"

    Survation provided an explanation of what TTIP was (see page 3)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Rochester-Strood-TTIP-tables.pdf

    Is it any wonder that people are turning their back on the Tories when they make such contemptible judgements about people?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    If this poll is to be believed, the collapse in the Labour + LD vote share is pretty astonishing - between them they've gone from 45% in the GE to 17%. The LibDems seem to have vapourised: from 16% to 1%.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    manofkent2014 said:

    Charles said:

    Sorry, OGH, this is garbage.

    If you asked voters to explain what TTIP is, and the impact on the NHS, I bet that less than 5% would have a clue.

    What the pollsters have asked is the following.

    "I am going to ask you about something. By definition that makes it interesting. If it is interesting it is controversial. Hmmh. And it affects the NHS. The NHS is a good thing. A controversial thing affecting the NHS. Sounds like a bad idea. Should that nice Mr Cameron exclude the NHS from TTIP? I don't know what it is. But I'm smart, so I need to have an opinion. What should I say? Well, it's a bad thing. And the NHS is a good thing. Should it be excluded? Of course it should!"

    Survation provided an explanation of what TTIP was (see page 3)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Rochester-Strood-TTIP-tables.pdf

    Is it any wonder that people are turning their back on the Tories when they make such contemptible judgements about people?
    Ha! Brilliant! Have you actually read their 'explanation'? It's one of the most ludicrous pieces of tendentious nonsense I've ever seen in a question asked by a leading pollster.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    off topic
    This is a real eye opener into our Govt and the Civil Service.
    https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    If this poll is to be believed, the collapse in the Labour + LD vote share is pretty astonishing - between them they've gone from 45% in the GE to 17%. The LibDems seem to have vapourised: from 16% to 1%.

    The LD will be content that they can't fall further.

    However there's a possibility they will be beaten by the Monster Raving Loonies.
    They will certainly end up behind at least one independent.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Hugh said:

    RightChuck said:

    NHS important, Labour losing votes.

    Interesting.

    Labour have their feet up, munching on popcorn, enjoying watching the blue on bluer cat-fight.
    Good plan....
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Hugh said:

    Labour have their feet up, munching on popcorn, enjoying watching the blue on bluer cat-fight.

    nigel4england said:

    Good plan....

    Borrowed from Scotland.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Hugh said:

    RightChuck said:

    NHS important, Labour losing votes.

    Interesting.

    Labour have their feet up, munching on popcorn, enjoying watching the blue on bluer cat-fight.
    And there, in a nutshell, is Labour's problem.

    Although it's actually a bacon sandwich.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    And yet Betfair over the day so far has seen the Tory price come in quite handily ... so far...

    Hmm.
  • RightChuckRightChuck Posts: 110
    Hugh said:

    RightChuck said:

    NHS important, Labour losing votes.

    Interesting.

    Labour have their feet up, munching on popcorn, enjoying watching the blue on bluer cat-fight.
    Nevertheless, interesting that 'Labour's issue' seems most important to the constituency but Labour get nothing from it.

    Suggests the complacency might in fact be a waste of an opportunity.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    The Labour vote is collapsing here. Perhaps the more expert among us might speculate as to what that means for the Conservatives in seats where Ukip are the main challenger

    Who knows what 'where UKIP are the main challenger' means. In 2010, they hardly picked up any thirds, never mind seconds. Main challenger status is something that's developed since then.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MikeL said:

    Charles said:

    Sorry, OGH, this is garbage.

    If you asked voters to explain what TTIP is, and the impact on the NHS, I bet that less than 5% would have a clue.

    What the pollsters have asked is the following.

    "I am going to ask you about something. By definition that makes it interesting. If it is interesting it is controversial. Hmmh. And it affects the NHS. The NHS is a good thing. A controversial thing affecting the NHS. Sounds like a bad idea. Should that nice Mr Cameron exclude the NHS from TTIP? I don't know what it is. But I'm smart, so I need to have an opinion. What should I say? Well, it's a bad thing. And the NHS is a good thing. Should it be excluded? Of course it should!"

    Walk down the street and ask people what TTIP is - I would be amazed if even 1% of people had actually heard of it.

    Of course people will venture an opinion as they will pretend to have heard of it.

    But ask them what it is - less than 1% will be able to answer.
    Very much like the YouGov Sunday Times polls when question like this are asked Survation introduced the question with an explanatory paragraph which I regarded as broadly neutral.

    This is very common in polling. The critical issue is whether the question is leading.



  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TTIP I don't mind admitting I had no idea what it was, and more to the point had never heard it mentioned on any news item
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    And yet Betfair over the day so far has seen the Tory price come in quite handily ... so far...

    Hmm.

    Some one put a bait before the poll was released, no one took it, and now the price is going out quickly.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    This ain't quite over until Lord A says it is.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Hugh said:

    Roger said:

    Depressing. It must be a horrible thought that you share your living space with so many who share the values of UKIP.

    Yep. Must be like PB, only in real life. Grubby and nasty. Yuck.
    Ugh. People who think differently. Yuck.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    audreyanne said:

    Popeye said:

    You were and are a bad loser Mike , Your tips are poor and even in a two horse race you get it wrong !Worse you say UKIP did badly ,. That's poor because its not true . MONEY talking on your part

    UKIP threw a lot at the S.Yorks PCC and flopped, as they will flop on May 7th.

    I've been around the block with this sort of nonsense sooooooo many times. When will we learn? The General Election will come down to Labour vs Conservative as it has done ever since 1945. It's the reality.

    And of course people protest in by elections. That's what they are for. Today, at the real thing in the PCC for S.Yorks, UKIP despite all their efforts under-performed.
    Do you think we are all 21 and this is the first time we have voted? Such arrogant bullshit is the reason the two main parties are in the dreadful position that they are.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I take the voting intention questions seriously, because they were asked first. The TTIP questions are a good example of pollsters asking leading questions by seeking to frame the debate (presumably at the behest of their paying client). Not Survation's finest hour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    chestnut said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think Reckless could end up receiving around 50-53% because the trend is in that direction and there are almost three weeks still to go.

    Look at Survation's level of error in previous Tory held seats.

    The overstated gap in Newark 1 (just one week before the election ) was 11 points, in Clacton it was 9.

    Both suggest that the gap on the day will be about 5.
    I'm prepared to bet Reckless will win by at least 10 points.
This discussion has been closed.