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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-electi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections
Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence)
Result: Scottish National Party 1,090 (41% +16%), Independent 629 (24% +1%), Labour 530 (20% -2%), Conservative 415 (16% -2%)
SNP lead of 461 (17%) on the first count on a swing of 8% from Independent to SNP, SNP GAIN from Independent on the fourth count
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I'm in for £20 on the under 50% with Ladbrokes off the back of @isam, @PtP (And @OblitusSumMe)'s analysis.
Also if you are long Conservative this strikes me as a superb hedge. It is also good value as a naked standalone bet.
Think this through:
In order to WIN, the Tories will need at least 35% I think (Probably more but it is a useful lower bound)
5688 returns yields 16251 "equivalent returns" if every party ran a similiar primary (Bear with this). Given the electorate is 47971/.649 = 73915, so 50% = 36957
That would mean a multiplier rate of 2.3 for primary returns (I don't think that has ever happened, the odds should certainly be long on it at any rate) . And heading upwards towards more realistic winning %s only makes the "multiplier return rate" even higher...
On the other side, the price for UKIP to get a Carswell type majority is long (55%+ is not indicated by any poll) which is what it would take to get the Tory vote low enough that betting overs would be the correct move.
So (especially) if your position is long Tory, I reckon smashing into unders is the best move.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/oct/24/rochester-and-strood-byelection-politics-live-blog
Looking at the results it will be interpreted by a few as "another terrible night for the Conservatives". Well by a few I mean the mad, bad and sad. Must be one of the better nights for an incumbent Govt in local by elections?
Some ofthe Labour figures four years into an opposition are terrible. 6% in Folkstone!!!! Hardly strikes me as a platform to win a GE
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/conservative-by-election-candidate-revealed-25826/
Personally, I'd read almost nothing into these. If UKIP are going to galvanise erstwhile non-voters to go to the ballot box, it's not going to happen in council by-elections.
And seeing the SNP in purple, with considerable experience of trying to find party colours that are legible online, I feel Harry's pain.
It's almost as if they're forcing the UK into a corner to get them to make the big decision once and for all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29755443
Reading of the New York case, it sounds like the chap with it (or symptoms, at least) has been very sensible, which will help to minimise the risk of contagion.
In unrelated news, Supermodels of SHIELD is on Channel 4 tonight (will probably watch the +1 channel to give a Roman documentary on Five a look).
Thousands? Really? It was just under 6,000 ballots cast and the vote was evenly split. It's pretty likely she got less than 2,000 isn't it?
He will lose because he has tried to be what he said he was, the true heir to Blair. He will lose because he is still thinking in terms of 1997 and 2001 and has missed that the world has turned a couple of times. He will, in short lose, because he is no good at politics and hasn't a strategic bone in his body.
http://order-order.com/2014/10/24/child-abuse-campaigners-warned-macshane-in-2009-but-rotherham-mp-never-replied-and-didnt-act-on-claims/
Only a 5 page letter full of child abuse details, of course something forgotten by Macshane. If they had said it was happening in Brussels maybe he would have paid attention?
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/jay-report-could-be-tip-of-iceberg-when-it-comes-to-child-abuse-special-report-1-6914806
Re: UKIP Always hard to get non-voters to turn out for by elections......
That really is a stupid comment from their PM.
Glad you are on Mr. Star. As one of the very few people on here who runs a real business, how is trade? I ask because earlier in the week we had some posters, me included, who suggested that there is evidence that a downturn is coming. As someone who is actually out there making money (I hope) in the real world your view would be appreciated.
Havering Council apologised last week after it published incorrect figures exaggerating the risk of sexual exploitation in response to a Freedom of Information (FOI) request, which were reported in the national media.
Accurate figures show between April 2013 and July 2014, 25 suspected cases were identified, and since then, a further 17.
“It is a grooming issue,” said Mrs Hollister. “Many young people believe these older people are their boyfriends, that they love them. It is a difficult thing to tackle because it’s about getting young people themselves to recognise it isn’t normal.”
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/gang_culture_on_the_rise_in_romford_1_3817898
How many weeks has it been since the Rotherham report came out and Cameron has done nothing on a national basis?
FWIW, I think UKIP has plenty of scope to improve further, though as the other parties wake up to the threat, it'll become harder for them to do so.
As an aside, becoming too good at FPTP elections holds risks too in that it becomes impossible to break out of the enclaves you create for yourself and become perpetually doomed to at best middle-party status.
Call the Samaritans?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/the-nhs-wales-disaster-vindicates-tony-blair-not-david-cameron/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nhs-wales-disaster-vindicates-tony-blair-not-david-cameron&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
UKIP would be better off focussing some firepower on the local MP's in Rotherham, and the surrounding constituencies. There might be some seats to be had there.
There is a fine speech from Starkey available on UTube dating back some years now suggesting that Cameron needed to recreate Disraeli's One Nation strategy - i.e. you go after the aspirational working classes and the successful but ignore the, for want of a shorthand phrase, the Guardianistas because they aren't going to vote for you whatever you say.
I read the wage statistics showing very low wage growth with incredulity. Wages in construction in the South of England are increasing by far more than the offical statisitics say. People are being head hunted at all times by Construction Firms. We just had a very average spark leave us to work at heathrow, just as a bog standard spark, £19.63 per hour, Foreman are on £25 per hour + . We have had to give 10%+ pay rises to our lads to stop them being tempted by the offers they are getting. I have never known it like this.
We now have 10 Apprentices on, in 2011 we had 2. There is even competition for apprentices. We offered one lad a job and he already had 2 two other offers, he was a school leaver. He joined us, but only because we were offering the bast salary!
The irony is that for that to happen, the Tories will probably have to first lose the 2015 GE - which would then mean no referendum at least until after 2020.
Kipper duck last night.
You sound very bitter - too much time on your hands?
Sounds like she would fit right in with our expense fiddling MPs.
Much as some might think they will have won the bragging rights that won't last long because the Tory party will be just as ill- disciplined, fractious and divided as ever and they won't have an election to worry about for five years. Its quite feasible that within the first two years of taking power Cameron could face a leadership challenge. One things sure entertainment value will be just as high as it always has been and David Cameron will still be David Cameron and that in itself is a gift...........
If he wins it will be five more years of beating him, politically speaking, into submission over positions he'd much rather not take. Thats the thing with Cameron he's malleable.
Still think we will manage largest party.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/01/ukip-by-election-hopeful-changed-to-less-foreign-sounding-name/
"....But at some point during her ascent of the party ranks — eventually securing third place on UKIP’s north west regional list for the European elections in May — ‘van de Bours’ appears to have ditched her tussenvoegsel to become simply ‘Bours’.
Could a foreign-sounding surname be some form of impediment with xenophobic UKIP activists?"
"If we are to devise a Ukip profile, better to focus on English nationalists than economic losers, ‘preservers’ rather than ‘changers’. Preservers tend to be white, older than average, and strongest among secure non-degree holders. Most voted Tory in 2010, were unlikely to return to Labour, and it is this subgroup which is fuelling Ukip’s rise."
If my analysis is correct, Ukip’s emergence will damage the Conservatives by hiving off an important Tory demographic. As with the rise of Canada’s populist Reform Party in the early 90s, this could cast the Conservatives into the political wilderness for a decade or more.
During this period, Ukip may, like Reform, mobilise new voters into the electorate and shift the political culture to the right. If a British version of Canada’s ‘unite the right’ movement succeeds, Labour could subsequently find itself out of office for many years."
http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-4/the-dark-net-revolt-on-the-right-cricket/
It surely won't do them any harm on the basis of today's first reactions to this news - especially Farage's rather surprising "of course Britain will have to pay, we have no choice". Whereas it is impossible to imagine any circumstances, come what may, whereby Cameron will agree to pay - at least this side of a General Election, if ever.
We're not paying!
What exactly can they do?
No, I am not bitter why should I be? I am not and never have been a member of the Conservative Party. I think Cameron is a bloody fool and unfit for any public office above that of refuse disposal officer, a post he might have aspired to had he not been born to money.
It is quite ludicrous that the Tories have to be a handful of percentage points ahead of Labour to creep ahead of them in terms of seats, while Labour only have to be level pegging with the Tories to be significantly ahead. One of the most foolish things the Tories did in the early years of the Coaltion was let the boundary changes go.
Because of the reasons above, and five years of the Coalition being the bad guys, I can see Labour with a slim majority in 2015, or at least in coalition government (with the Lib Dems). That, despite having a dreadul leader, a shadow chancellor who helped run the UK economy into the ground, and no clear policies (or indeed deeply held values or principles). Never before will such a motley crew of political minnows have taken office.
God help us all then.
UKIP? They might have 3-4 seats.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29750948
David Cameron:."I'm not paying that [£1.7bn] Bill on the 1st of December. It's not happening." "
Least surprising tweet of the day.
The boundaries are but a small component of the hobbling of the Tories by their preferred electoral system.
Far more important reasons:-
i) Lower turnout in Labour seats
ii) Third-party seats are mostly former Tory seats.
"A lot of us old hands from both the Conservative and Labour parties had come to the conclusion that our parties were engaged in a massive struggle to out-lose each other."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100289740/is-david-cameron-finally-listening-to-his-backbenchers/
"Gloria de Piero, the shadow women's minister, wants to see action. She said that all companies above 250 employees should be obliged to undertake an equal pay audit that would be published in the company's annual report."
Load of extra red tape, money for the bean counters, and if company bosses really do pay different amounts based purely on gender (the stats banded about for this are already really dodgy*) they will fiddle it anyway.
* I think an element of this does exist, especially at the lower end. But there so many other factors that aren't modeled in when they band about women paid 20% less than men etc.
If you compare now to about a year ago then I'd say that the changes are:
Conservative -1
Labour -5
Lib Dem -2
UKIP +5
Which implies something like Green +2 and SNP +1.
The defections to UKIP look like they are responsible for the Con -1, but that may have bottomed out for now.
People have argued that defections from the Tories to UKIP will put off previously Labour voters from voting UKIP, but that doesn't look like the case at all. If anything the opposite seems to be the case - almost as though voters are saying to themselves "Well, if this Carswell bloke disliked the Tories so much he left them, and he's joined UKIP, it stands to reason that if I don't like the Tories I should vote UKIP."
This does make a bit of sense to me, particularly when Miliband appears to be so inept and so incapable of taking the fight to the Tories.
The British people are a conservative and (in my view too) reasonable bunch who hardly ever vote for change in a referendum. If their PM returns from Europe claiming that he/she has won Britain back some of its sovereignty (which will of course be bogus), that will undoubtedly be good enough for them: they will vote to stay in the EU convincingly.
Hence why Farage said he wanted a referendum just months after the GE - to allow no time for such a political move to happen.
Cam should name the date for the referendum - I see no downside to that.
The builders and project management companies are doing really well, as currystar said. Weird thing is one of my clients is in the restoration and damage management field for insurers, and they are struggling to make money as the tradesman are so expensive, £180 a day for a sparks which confirms what currystar said.
I have had two clients go into administration this year, one is in a specific field and had a problem with their only supplier, the other is/was in the events business and having battled through the worst of it surprisingly went under.
All the rest seem to be doing well thank goodness.
Startling recent Labour decline !
i) pre-democratic
ii) pre political parties
iii) pre national elections
iv) supposed to represent territory rather than people
The underlying problem for UKIP is that while most people I imagine at least tend towards some level of euroscepticism, especially on news days like today, it only takes Cameron or someone talking about the (so-called) importance of the EU to our economy in terms of trade etc for most to run scared from voting 'out'.
Euroscepticism is widely, but not deeply, held.
not a great day to be long a Tory win in Rochester as well as a pro European Tory.
Low profile for me until er something turns up.
At least my annuity punts are recovering a little.
Paxo would have known what to do, no doubt.