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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As UKIP surges Ipsos-MORI finds that support for wanting to stay in the EU is at a 23 year high
As I often say one of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been carrying out political polls in the UK for 40 years and is has a vast amount of historical data on which we can make comparisons.
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PS Scary Farage doppleganger
Michael Moran @TheMichaelMoran Oct 17
I feel I may never unsee this
https://twitter.com/TheMichaelMoran/status/523130350898520064/photo/1
UKIP are as much about certain immigrant communities that are already here as they are about the European Union.
Could well be - UKIP have all the 36% as potential recruits too, bit like the "45" and the SNP...
What is Ed's view @_Bobajob_ ? Still not trusting the Great British People?
14% back closer European integration
29% back the status quo
28% back returning to an economic community without political links
23% back leaving altogether
Eurosceptic's aim must be to make the third group realise that means leaving. Every single media spot UKIP get must be to say "We will return to an economic relationship, along the lines of the Canada-EU trade agreement or the Korea-EU trade agreement."
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Jun 27
Exclusive! The Sunil's front page: Stick it up your #Juncker!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/482688790105194496
Use the money to shorten cancer diagnosis times.
Suspect the BOOers wouldn't see it thus either.
Can we get Devo-Max from Europe ?
Perhaps a passing bookie could think about a market on this.
My point is that when Kippers come on here, they complain about Northern Pakistani taxi drivers more than they do Romanian Hop pickers or Polish plumbers.
And yet there is nothing in UKIP's policy mix that would do anything about the former.
I'd go 2-9 in, 10-3 out if I was a bookie on the matter. Something like that.
And I'd expect the big money to hit the 2-9.
(Note I'm not offering this!)
Monumental waste of time and money
Obsoiv:
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Oct 15
#LibDems' GB by-election %-ages since GE 2010 - 10 lost deposits from 18. Only 3 polls higher than 20% #Clacton
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522402890598858752
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · Oct 15
#LibDems % change in vote at GB by-elections vs. GE 2010 for each seat. Only Oldham East showed increase... of 0.3%.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522529343847673856
Tory and Labour bar charts in the pipeline!
Socrates said:
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Agree that that's the likely cause. I think there's a big toxicity about UKIP right now where there are a lot of anti-UKIP agenda items in the press, and electoral rules mean they don't have a big enough media presence to refute that image. Once UKIP surpass the Lib Dems in vote share and get a half dozen seats at the next election, that will hopefully change.
It's also worth bearing in mind this is a poll after Cameron has been in the news about limiting EU migration as his main repatriation. I can imagine these numbers changing if he can't do that effectively.
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Also the real reason for UKIPs rise is not Europe or even Immigration, it's about the state of the UK as a land, country and society. Once that is factored in, the rise of UKIP is very explainable.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/18/ukip-would-not-overturn-gay-marriages
45% votes yes but your general point is sound
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zknTM2j5Log
OK d'oh you got me! Sorry I thought you were being serious.
What were the early Indyref preference numbers again?
Also I overheard John Gaunt, he is primed and ready to lead the "Out" campaign - which should be good for a laugh.
UKIP 1.35
Con 4
Lab 70
Oth 1000
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.115707446&eventTypeId=2378961&betId=42595620929
But isn't this supposed to be a betting site? And aren't you supposed to be a connoisseur of elections?
I mean this could be your retirement election as in you will make enough money not to need to moderate this site ever again...
Nigel Farage will lead the Out camp
Eddie Izzard is just plain camp!
Poll comes out saying EU support is at its highest for 20 years. Result: Mike is accused of a) having a Kleenex moment and b) being fearful over the result. The 56% who support remaining in the EU are accused of being "fantasists"
The only fantasists are the europhobes on here who think there is any prospect of us leaving.
Rich seam of tactical anti UKIP voters out there?
(I'm secretly hoping either of OGH or TSE will notice and use them in potential future Thread-headers - sh1t, did I just press "send"???)
You only need read this site to see that supporters of the other three parties are so worried by the ukip surge (as Mike calls it) that they have begun to resemble contortionists in effort to bad mouth them.
The last couple of days have been dominated by Tories on here slagging off the Mike Read song due to the Jamaican twang & smearing by association re the Polish MEP joining the EU group... then chief PC wonk Chuka Umunna says exactly the same thing the next day
However we know that the Tories have exactly the same set up with EU groups, and I am reasonably confident that if Chuka Umunna had criticised any song last week (pre "Calypso")where a white singer affects a black voice, the same Tories on here would have criticised him for it
Staying in the EU is a free hit at UKIP, which doesn't affect their side as their leader is pro EU, along w Miliband and Clegg.. it's the only chance either side get, as they cant risk an anti UKIP tactical vote in a GE because it will hand power to their main opponents
I think Farage has long known this, hence his decision not to front any BOO campaign should the opportunity arise
It's also why BOOers need a BOOer to be in charge of the Tories... like it or not, most political junkies defend their party leaders stance.. and that's what the Conservatives are doing now
I'm sure soon we'll be told, as part of the liberal metropolitan elite we are so out of touch with what is going on out on the ground.
Also don't forget the BOOers probably have a better GOTV campaign.
I'll sign it off with "If you just can't get enough of Sunil's tweets, follow him here"
Briskin and co live at 1430 (clocks change this weekend)
We note that it is possible for a Think tank to get on the front page of The Times (Scottish edition) with no landline.
Fiscal Affairs Scotland
Fiscal Affairs Scotland SCIO (SC044827)
http://fiscalaffairsscotland.co.uk/contact/
Immigration rather than the EU is certainly the issue that is pushing more people to UKIP. When I tell constituents that we can't hamper EU immigration without leaving it, they tend to look uncertain rather than say cheerily "OK, let's leave". But that's partly because their concerns relate more to non-EU immigration, and some haven't fully registered (and don't necessarily believe) that we've actually got a points system outside the EU, or they think there must be loads of loopholes because they've seen lots of immigrants.
A reliable source tells me he is going to wait until after the Tory candidate has been selected, which should be tomorrow.
In addition, __Bobajob___ has the hilarious position of believing that (a) a membership referendum would cause the UK to be racked with instability and (b) everyone but a small fringe would be certain that the vote would be In. The fact these positions are completely inconsistent doesn't occur to him.
All my typo's can can be safely dismissed as laptop problems and my comprehensive education.
PS - MI6 please don't kill me.
The Kippers have given up any pretence of making a serious case and are just turning into a general moan machine, Serious BOOers like Dan Hannan are tearing their hair out.
Of course the tragedy is that it didn't have to be like this. The time to get this right was before signing Lisbon, but unfortuntely we were lumbered with a Labour government who recklessly or deliberately threw away the opportunity. We are left with Cameron's approach as the best of a bad job.
Time to bin the referendum idea. Pointless foregone conclusion. Time to move on.
Perhaps we can start getting on with things.
@TelePolitics: Miliband refuses to back study into NHS Wales http://t.co/A1HD2VnjBH
I sometimes wonder whether Cameron is really a closet BOOer, and is making a great play of his renegotiation in the hope of convincing a lot of the uncommitted public that the EU is unreformable and we'd be better off out.
I think that an argument for out would be a lot more convincing if it came from someone who could credibly claim to have gone on the same emotional journey that most of the public would need to go on. Something like: "I like Europe. I wanted to make the EU work. And I tried, I really did. But the EU that our Continental friends have chosen to create is not an EU that Britain is comfortable being a member of. And so it is now time to leave the EU and create a new relationship with Europe."
Then I remember that a conspiracy is rarely the explanation when a cock-up will suffice, and Cameron doesn't have the air of someone who has been planning his moves a decade in advance. It's much more credible that he has been reacting to short-term pressure.
Is it codified in British law what international treaty commitments / pooling of sovereignty require a UK referendum? Is there a 'this kind of shit needs a referendum Act'? If Yes, then the ratification of eg Lisbon was illegal. If No then we can just leave.
I've been frantically searching for French and Deutsch Dictionaries all afternoon. (Apparently we're in the EU).
Anyway - apparently my Casio is not a casio anyway - but rather is emboldened with the number DT391
Team Casio-
Bunch of fakers
And you can trust us with your lives.
Should this be the tories' main line of attack?
It's getting pretty obvious that as soon as there is any negative polling, or perceived negative polling for UKIP, the thread must be changed without warning. Farcical ffs!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11179456/Of-course-Ukip-wont-condemn-its-racist-new-partners-because-Ukip-is-the-cult-of-Nigel-Farage.html
"There has been talk in recent weeks about tensions between Farage and the more socially liberal Carswell. How their very differing visions of how Ukip should reach beyond its base could produce splits within the party.
There will be no splits. And that’s because Carswell’s vision is his, and his alone. Ukip are not a party of libertarians. They are a party of worshippers. They worship at the Shrine of Farage. He is the way, the truth and the light.
Nigel says Putin is someone he admires, so the message boards fill up with Ukip supporters expressing admiration for Putin. Nigel says Robert Iwaszkiewicz was just having a bit of a laugh when he said beating women “helps bring wives back to earth”; Twitter comes alive with Ukip supporters explaining how Robert Iwaszkiewicz’s views are being traduced by Ukip’s opponents. Nigel announces a “Wag tax”; Ukip members applaud. Two days later he announces he’s scrapping his “Wag tax”; they applaud again."
@Spectator_CH: From @jgforsyth: Ukip’s unsavoury Polish ally in the European Parliament http://t.co/mZHYIgMj3E
I think there have now been enough referenda in British politics that it would be hard to make that sort of major constitutional change without a referendum - but the nature of the British Constitution is that hard does not equal impossible/illegal and so UKIP with an outright Commons majority could simply pass something like an "EU exit Bill" into law.
No. A vote could not possibly be a foregone conclusion three years ahead. Pro-Europeans should support a referendum as a necessary means to renew democratic consent and to enable the UK to play a more positive role in Europe.
For example, any LD talking about Tuition fees.
Some might remember Tory supporters like RN backing the party line before the election that to cut the deficit by half would be inadequate and that a AAA rating had to be guarded at all costs. The same people are now supporting the party line that to cut it by a third is an achievement and that it doesn't matter that we are AA+.
No doubt same applies to Labour supporters.
I imagine Hodges is diversifying his portfolio of hate figures to dilute any ed-related embarrassment after the GE.
David Farage
Ed Clegg
Nick Miliband
Who knows what would happen if Le Pen were elected? How much longer can Germany keep the Eurozone afloat especially if the Russian sanctions continue to bite there. Half the Eurozone is in terminal decline with no prospect of recovery. And this at a time of general world economic growth. Wait till there's another global downturn and see what happens.
Can you set out the harm that the Monarchy currently does to the country and why you think the Cons outweigh the Pros?
Bravo on recognising people have concerns about immigration without calling them bigots. What a refreshing change to Mad Gord.
Did you also tell them that you felt immigrants should have priority to social housing if their "needs" were higher. Even if they also had a house in a foreign country.