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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems fall into 5th place in this week’s Ashcroft Na
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems fall into 5th place in this week’s Ashcroft National phone poll
This 3% jump in a single week is a remarkable move by the Greens who now seem to be taking support from across the board but most particularly LAB and the LDs which could conceivably help the Tories in the battlegrounds.
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Hard for any party (except Greens) to be content with this poll.
And 1st
Very good news for the Greens. More bad news to the Lib Dems, but they must be used to it, like Carthage after a year of being besieged in the Third Punic War.
If so - depending on who the pollster is (I'll need to check specific methodology etc (In particular if it is ICM with the reallocation of DK to previous party I won't offer the bet...)) I may be prepared to offer £20 at evens that the SNP are ahead of Labour.
Av lead this week 2.5% (2 polls)
UKIP were 18 in Lord A's first poll (May 2013).
Conservative and Labour wouldn't lose any seats to UKIP on 28% & 31%, and presumably UKIP lose Clacton
#analysis
UKIP - Lord Ashcroft
By the time the election is called it would be good for them to be polling in the 20s. During the campaign there is a strong chance that they will suffer a polling setback (assuming some of the respondents are protest responses), but don't expect them to fall back by any more than 4 or 5 points from the peak they hit in polls during the first quarter of 2015.
The seat calculators assume that UKIP's increase in vote share is sort of uniform across the country, which makes Argyll and Bute fall before Castle Point !
The UKIP vote will be far more evenly spread than what will be an incredibly lumpy Lib Dem vote but the assumption of a leavened even rise without paying attention to the fact that UKIP has significant strongholds particularly in the east of the country is what makes the seat calculators a piss poor guide for UKIP in 2015. The bookies odds on seats will be a far better guide.
It must be some urge to feed his fantasies; it must be he thinks the world hasn't changed. He's in for a big surprise then.
Have sent you the PP article you wanted.
But Labour will have to put serious effort into holding Rotherham and quite possibly a fair few other northern working class "safe" constituencies at the GE for the first time in forever.
(I've bet on UKIP >15%, so I hope you're wrong on vote share!)
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html
At about 16% UKIP gains seats if you use the tables as a guide.
Yvette's website isn't much better.
Tristram - awful too - he seems to be dumbing down, and so very effectively.
Chuka though.. Almost pizza-selling-worthy!
If Labour have a sustained spell behind, there must be a chance of mass desertion.
UKIP on 18% means a rise of 15%, compared to 2010. But, it would not be 15% per seat. It would be more like 1-2% in central Scotland, and perhaps 3-4% in Inner London. In prosperous parts of the Home Counties, I'd expect a rise of 5-10% per seat.
But, that would leave some seats in which the UKIP share was rising by 20-30%.
National aggregate vote shares are irrelevant when it comes to seat totals. What matters are the outcomes in 650 separate seats in elections fought under first past the post. The art for a party is to have the strength in seats where they are in contention. Elsewhere zero % shares have no impact on the overall outcome.
Furthermore, except for 2005 the third party's vote has grown over the last few months of the government by a few points so there is nothing to think that the additional exposure that the election will give might not assist UKIP as it previously has in recent elections.
It's what Farage says, it's what the betting markets say and it kind of makes sense given the 'lumpy' spread of their support.
In fact you can pretty much name the seats - Clacton, Rochester, South Thanet, Thurrock, Eastleigh, Greater Grimsby, maybe a few others. They're probably a buy at 5 seats, a sell at 10.
This poll suggests they might be right.
As we all know we are all in uncharted waters. This may or may not change by May, but if both Tories and Labour are on 30% neither will get a majority.
Errm
Separately: this is scary - http://gizmodo.com/report-chinese-authorities-are-now-targeting-icloud-us-1648391065
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/18/green-party-general-election-12-seats-england
But Labour and the Conservatives will both be targeting LD seats, so its not all or even mostly down to the Greens.
"The bookies odds on seats will be a far better guide."
It's easily the best guide at the moment.
UKIP are favorites in four seats, I believe, plus Thurrock where they should be favorites.
Bognor Regis, Folkstone&Hythe, Great Grimsby, Walsall North, Amber Valley, Great Yarmouth, Thanet South, Thurrock, Sherwood, Cambourne&Redruth, Clacton, Boston&Skegness, Thanet North, Rotherham, St. Austell&Newquay, Corby.
Likewise they get a 5% or less rise in :
Manchester Withington, Hampstead&Kilburn, Cambridge, Hornsey&Wood green, Brentford&Isleworth
So the pattern is there.
Wait for it! Wait for it! Wait for it! Wait for it!!!!!
48 is the number of seats UKIP are likely to win............................
It's perfectly possible for Labour to have a majority on 31%. It's even possible for the Tories on 28% too, though not very likely.
The betting snip must surely be NOM though, still about 10/11.
It may also help to explain the popularity of the monarchy.
Didn't the No-to-AV chairman proudly declare that electoral reform had been settled for a generation? after the result of the AV referendum
You need to quite literally walk through the form constituency by constituency. For example, I think Cleethorpes would fall to UKIP at or around a national 18% figure, although on UNS or your Australian model it probably isn't in the top 100 targets.
The great big buckets of manure have yet to be poured- and has nobody learned anything from the Indyref - the quiet grannies of England have yet to speak - they certainly don't talk to yougov.
L
Which will only keep us in the EU and see us sink further into the ravenous pit of Brussels.
Mr. Alistair, a voting system should not be approved or disapproved of based on narrow-minded partisan advantage.
Sorry.
"...[LD] Party figures who worked on the local elections in London have written to the national party to complain that they felt under ‘Green siege’"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/how-the-greens-are-spooking-labour-and-the-lib-dems/
Those that would rather see PM Cameron
LDs
NI
SNP
Those that would rather see PM Miliband
Greens
UKIP
But for those wot missed it, here's data for the week ending 18th October:
UKIP are UP yet again, in this week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Total of 12 polls with field-work end-dates during the week-ending 18th October, including both parts of the "double ComRes". Total weighted samples: 13,550.
Lab 33.6% (-0.5)
Con 31.2% (-0.3)
UKIP 17.1% (+0.9)
LD 7.9% (-0.2)
Lab lead 2.4% (-0.1)
Changes since the first ELBOW from 17th August:
Lab -2.5%
Con -2.0%
UKIP +4.0%
LD -0.8%
Lab lead -0.6%
Con + Lab (Ashcroft) = 59% (-7 on GE2010)
The Populus weighting for UKIP and the Greens is quite severe, so it looks as though the general election will be a good methodological test. While I expect the Greens not to seriously challenge the Lib Dems in national vote share, I also find it hard to see Labour and Conservatives putting on vote share in aggregate. They are both losing too many votes to UKIP.
That 50% early payment discount offer is still available on our Greens outpolling the Lib Dems bet.
Website advertising. You might want to look into 'content click'. The Spectator are using them on their website, one Conservative Party advert I clicked on was distributed by them (but that might have been be the Speccy putting all their web advertising through them).
http://www.contentclick.co.uk/
My assumption is that UKIP will end up around 15%, and will get between 4 and 10 seats. I do not think Mark Reckless will hold Rochester, even if he wins the by-election.
This means the 'window' for NOC is slightly smaller than in 2010, and that it is slightly more likely we will see a majority government than most people think. However, I think it is the Conservatives who will end up - by a super small margin - with the majority: perhaps 10 seats.
But we'll see. All to play for :-)
My only concern is the candidate is a little bit too *out there* with some of her comments...
“Anarchists I used to know used to say - ‘we don’t just want more crumbs from the table, we want the whole bloody bakery’. Yes we do, But now the task is even bigger because we have to stop the bakery from being burnt down in the process of trying to acquire a fair share of it,” she said.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/lesley_grahame_selected_to_fight_norwich_south_for_the_greens_1_3724042
She'd make an interesting MP, for sure.
Starting to look ok.
+£234.74 Lab
-£689.71 Con is my state of play in that market.
Which I work out to be green to the extent of around £30 or so right now.
[Note: PDF file]
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/ANP-141020-Full-data-tables.pdf
Even if it's dead someone still has to be prepared to take a shovel to its head. I doubt that there will be a Common's majority for electoral reform after the next election.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-calypso-song-number-one-nigel-farage-mike-read
South East 6%
Midlands 6%
Scotland 6%
North 10%
South West & Wales 15%
2010 Voter Switch to Greens (all caveats acknowledged)
1% of the Tory vote (representative of c 107,000 voters)
3% of the 2010 Labour vote ( representative of c 260,000 voters)
16% of the 2010 Libdem vote (representative of c 1.1 million voters)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/ANP-141020-Full-data-tables.pdf