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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 people which is the equivalent to almost a year’s worth of ICM or Ipsos-MORI polls.

Read the full story here

CopperSulphate

Better start getting used to seeing Ed's goofy head everywhere.

TheScreamingEagles

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

Pulpstar

When are we going to get some Scotland specific polling - anyone know ?

It's a big old piece of the jigsaw !

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

When are we going to get some Scotland specific polling - anyone know ?

It's a big old piece of the jigsaw !

I'm expecting a Survation soon.

Also his Lordship is polling some Lab held seats in Scotland.

Lennon

On a technical point - aren't these a different set of marginals to those surveyed in August? In other words the difference may be due to the passing of time, but it might instead be due to the fact that these are a different set of seats, with different characteristics. Or am I missing something?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

When are we going to get some Scotland specific polling - anyone know ?

It's a big old piece of the jigsaw !

I'm expecting a Survation soon.

Also his Lordship is polling some Lab held seats in Scotland.

Popcorn at the ready.

Socrates

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

You're making the assumption that Con->UKIP switchers would have voted Tory had UKIP not existed. They'd probably have stayed home.

Beverley_C

As a small business owner, I noticed in previous recessions that my industry - web databases / digital marketing - felt the first shivers of the downturns months before everyone else. It was easy to notice because people and companies became much harder to get money out of. They stretched their payment cycles and many of my competitors went bust.

It is starting to feel like that again. Some of the competition has gone again and over the last few weeks money has dried up. Bills stay stubbornly unpaid unless we threaten to withdraw online services in which case some money appears, but not all. Accounts Receivable is starting to show more bad debt than for the previous two years.

If it stays like this for another few weeks then I wil be convinced that another downturn is on the way and next spring is going to be very bad... right before the election.

Casino_Royale

FPT - it's not about *preferring* the uneducated to lead our country to the educated. That's missing the point. It's about the educated recognising they are in a privileged position and have a duty to listen to, understand and represent the balance of opinion across the whole country, rather than just amongst themselves.

That's democracy. If you don't do it, you ain't going to get re-elected.

One example that needs no introduction: Margaret Thatcher. She held a degree in Chemistry, and in Law, and was by any stretch of the imagination educated and intelligent.

However, she was never part of the metropolitan elite. In many respects, she was an outsider for almost her whole term in office.

In fact, I'd argue, she was the first UKIP PM. Discuss.

Millsy

So is that comparing 2 different sets of seats, with the less marginal have more voters moving to Ukip?

isam

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

CopperSulphate

Beverley_C said:

As a small business owner, I noticed in previous recessions that my industry - web databases / digital marketing - felt the first shivers of the downturns months before everyone else. It was easy to notice because people and companies became much harder to get money out of. They stretched their payment cycles and many of my competitors went bust.

It is starting to feel like that again. Some of the competition has gone again and over the last few weeks money has dried up. Bills stay stubbornly unpaid unless we threaten to withdraw online services in which case some money appears, but not all. Accounts Receivable is starting to show more bad debt than for the previous two years.

If it stays like this for another few weeks then I wil be convinced that another downturn is on the way and next spring is going to be very bad... right before the election.

Yes it is a similar story in my line of work. Companies have very little money to splash about at the moment and those that have a bit want a lot more for their money.

Pulpstar

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - it's not about *preferring* the uneducated to lead our country to the educated. That's missing the point. It's about the educated recognising they are in a privileged position and have a duty to listen to, understand and represent the balance of opinion across the whole country, rather than just amongst themselves.

That's democracy. If you don't do it, you ain't going to get re-elected.

One example that needs no introduction: Margaret Thatcher. She held a degree in Chemistry, and in Law, and was by any stretch of the imagination educated and intelligent.

However, she was never part of the metropolitan elite. In many respects, she was an outsider for almost her whole term in office.

In fact, I'd argue, she was the first UKIP PM. Discuss.

Certainly better than any of the three musketeers leading any of the three main Westminster parties right now.

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

Dunno, but calm yourself down and back The Romford Pele in the 3.50 at Cheltenham.

Don't normally give horsey tips on here these days, but I thought the name might appeal to you as much as the form.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - it's not about *preferring* the uneducated to lead our country to the educated. That's missing the point. It's about the educated recognising they are in a privileged position and have a duty to listen to, understand and represent the balance of opinion across the whole country, rather than just amongst themselves.

That's democracy. If you don't do it, you ain't going to get re-elected.

One example that needs no introduction: Margaret Thatcher. She held a degree in Chemistry, and in Law, and was by any stretch of the imagination educated and intelligent.

However, she was never part of the metropolitan elite. In many respects, she was an outsider for almost her whole term in office.

In fact, I'd argue, she was the first UKIP PM. Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

She helped set up the way for thousands of Europeans to come over here to live and work.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

Pulpstar

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

Dunno, but calm yourself down and back The Romford Pele in the 3.50 at Cheltenham.

Don't normally give horsey tips on here these days, but I thought the name might appeal to you as much as the form.

Taken 2-1 with Boyle, lets hope he runs well

Beverley_C

CopperSulphate said:

Yes it is a similar story in my line of work. Companies have very little money to splash about at the moment and those that have a bit want a lot more for their money.

It makes for an uncomfortable run up to Xmas.

SimonStClare

Still baffled by the 8.3% of Lib Dem>UKiP switchers, the parties are virtually polar opposites?

TheScreamingEagles

O/T I knew this was coming and alluded to it the other day.

The human toll of the crisis gripping prisons in England and Wales is exposed with new figures obtained by the Guardian revealing that 125 prisoners have killed themselves in 20 months – an average of more than six a month.

For the first time the Guardian has identified the individuals behind the statistics that show suicide is at its highest rate in prisons for nine years, and there is no sign that the scale of the tragedy is being checked.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/17/-sp-inmate-suicide-figures-reveal-human-toll-prison-crisis

Beverley_C

SimonStClare said:

Still baffled by the 8.3% of Lib Dem>UKiP switchers, the parties are virtually polar opposites?

LD = UKIP = Protest votes = unelectable so why worry?

rogerh

If UKIP declines in Tory /Lab battlegrounds and UKIP is currently taking more Con than Labour voters ,we should see gap between Labour and Cons narrowing

isam

SimonStClare said:

Still baffled by the 8.3% of Lib Dem>UKiP switchers, the parties are virtually polar opposites?

Protest vote / NOTA

I don't doubt there's an element of that in ukip votes, it's just getting the Lib Dems to admit that was part of theirs

Pulpstar

SimonStClare said:

Still baffled by the 8.3% of Lib Dem>UKiP switchers, the parties are virtually polar opposites?

NOTA vote.

OblitusSumMe

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

I'm not even a UKIP supporter and I'm tired of that anti-democratic rubbish.

In the latest Ashcroft National Poll the Conservatives have 28% support and UKIP 19%. That is to say that UKIP support is more than two-thirds of Conservative support. It is arrogance of the highest order to demand that UKIP liquidate itself with those respective levels of support.

It will be the FPTP electoral system that Conservatives fight to defend that will put Ed Miliband into Number 10. FPTP will give Labour at least 100 extra MPs compared to STV in the next Parliament, and possibly even more when you consider that many Labour voters are reluctant tactical voters. You will have only yourselves to blame.

With some form of PR, say STV, there would be a clear majority in the Commons for an in/out Referendum on EU membership. The only question would be whether to hold it as soon as possible - as I assume most kippers and some Tories would prefer - or whether to wait for Cameron's fabled renegotiation in 2017.

Peter_the_Punter

Pulpstar said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

Dunno, but calm yourself down and back The Romford Pele in the 3.50 at Cheltenham.

Don't normally give horsey tips on here these days, but I thought the name might appeal to you as much as the form.

Taken 2-1 with Boyle, lets hope he runs well

Whatever happens today he will stay on my horses to follow list for the season.

HurstLlama

Beverley_C said:

As a small business owner, I noticed in previous recessions that my industry - web databases / digital marketing - felt the first shivers of the downturns months before everyone else. It was easy to notice because people and companies became much harder to get money out of. They stretched their payment cycles and many of my competitors went bust.

It is starting to feel like that again. Some of the competition has gone again and over the last few weeks money has dried up. Bills stay stubbornly unpaid unless we threaten to withdraw online services in which case some money appears, but not all. Accounts Receivable is starting to show more bad debt than for the previous two years.

If it stays like this for another few weeks then I wil be convinced that another downturn is on the way and next spring is going to be very bad... right before the election.

You are not the first small business owner that I have heard this from in recent weeks. Training is an area that gets cut very early when things start to look dicey and a chum's training company has had a batch of programmes cancelled. Of course it may be just down to ordinary business fluctuations, but it may not be.

At the other end of the scale, I see that Rolls Royce has just said its revenues will be dropping and has issued its first profit warning in more than a decade.

Going into a downturn with a £100bn p.a. deficit, more than £1tn debt and an unreformed banking sector could be interesting. Let us hope and pray it doesn't come to that.

Pulpstar

OblitusSumMe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

I'm not even a UKIP supporter and I'm tired of that anti-democratic rubbish.

In the latest Ashcroft National Poll the Conservatives have 28% support and UKIP 19%. That is to say that UKIP support is more than two-thirds of Conservative support. It is arrogance of the highest order to demand that UKIP liquidate itself with those respective levels of support.

It will be the FPTP electoral system that Conservatives fight to defend that will put Ed Miliband into Number 10. FPTP will give Labour at least 100 extra MPs compared to STV in the next Parliament, and possibly even more when you consider that many Labour voters are reluctant tactical voters. You will have only yourselves to blame.

With some form of PR, say STV, there would be a clear majority in the Commons for an in/out Referendum on EU membership. The only question would be whether to hold it as soon as possible - as I assume most kippers and some Tories would prefer - or whether to wait for Cameron's fabled renegotiation in 2017.

Well said !

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

Dunno, but calm yourself down and back The Romford Pele in the 3.50 at Cheltenham.

Don't normally give horsey tips on here these days, but I thought the name might appeal to you as much as the form.

Thanks! If I may name drop, I am on first name terms w the actual Romford Pele, he goes to my gym!

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 6m

The rise of #UKIP part 1: vote shares at GB Westminster by-elections since GE 2010 - won Clacton, runners-up 8 times

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/523094299005956097

Lennon

SimonStClare said:

Still baffled by the 8.3% of Lib Dem>UKiP switchers, the parties are virtually polar opposites?

Nowt as strange as folk. I have to say that this is one of the more understandable switches in terms of 'protest vote / anti-westminster'. In the London local elections with 3 votes for 3 candidates you got some absolute corkers. (I saw both TUSC, Green, Tory and TUSC, Pirate, Tory more than once for example)

TheWatcher

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

Farage would be out of work, and bereft of his allowances. Why would they?

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 3m

The rise of #UKIP part 2: increase in UKIP vote-share at Westminster by-elections v. share at GE 2010 for each seat:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/523095042186289152

SimonStClare

isam said:

SimonStClare said:

Still baffled by the 8.3% of Lib Dem>UKiP switchers, the parties are virtually polar opposites?

Protest vote / NOTA

I don't doubt there's an element of that in ukip votes, it's just getting the Lib Dems to admit that was part of theirs

Hmm - that would certainly make a little more sense – but then they’re an odd bunch... ; )

@Pulpstar – cheers.

Beverley_C

HurstLlama said:

You are not the first small business owner that I have heard this from in recent weeks. Training is an area that gets cut very early when things start to look dicey and a chum's training company has had a batch of programmes cancelled. Of course it may be just down to ordinary business fluctuations, but it may not be.

One of my ex-customers ran a very successful nationwide training scheme for many years, but he has basically cut it in half, sold off one part to a larger firm and kept a part of the business that he can mange by himself. All of his 10 staff are gone. Bookings just stopped.

HurstLlama said:

Going into a downturn with a £100bn p.a. deficit, more than £1tn debt and an unreformed banking sector could be interesting. Let us hope and pray it doesn't come to that.

I agree Mr Llama. Let us hope that it is a temporary blip.

TCPoliticalBetting

Casino_Royale said:

...One example that needs no introduction: Margaret Thatcher. She held a degree in Chemistry, and in Law, and was by any stretch of the imagination educated and intelligent. However, she was never part of the metropolitan elite. In many respects, she was an outsider for almost her whole term in office.
In fact, I'd argue, she was the first UKIP PM. Discuss.

Thatcher was closest to a classical Liberal. The UKIP of GE2010 she was close to but she would regard the UKIP of autumn 2014 as Socialist.

TheScreamingEagles

OblitusSumMe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

I'm not even a UKIP supporter and I'm tired of that anti-democratic rubbish.

In the latest Ashcroft National Poll the Conservatives have 28% support and UKIP 19%. That is to say that UKIP support is more than two-thirds of Conservative support. It is arrogance of the highest order to demand that UKIP liquidate itself with those respective levels of support.

It will be the FPTP electoral system that Conservatives fight to defend that will put Ed Miliband into Number 10. FPTP will give Labour at least 100 extra MPs compared to STV in the next Parliament, and possibly even more when you consider that many Labour voters are reluctant tactical voters. You will have only yourselves to blame.

With some form of PR, say STV, there would be a clear majority in the Commons for an in/out Referendum on EU membership. The only question would be whether to hold it as soon as possible - as I assume most kippers and some Tories would prefer - or whether to wait for Cameron's fabled renegotiation in 2017.

I voted against AV. I agree with Nick that it is a miserable little compromise.

I'm a fan of STV (probably multi member)

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kippers putting Ed Miliband into No10.

It's almost like they don't want that referendum.

I'm not even a UKIP supporter and I'm tired of that anti-democratic rubbish.

In the latest Ashcroft National Poll the Conservatives have 28% support and UKIP 19%. That is to say that UKIP support is more than two-thirds of Conservative support. It is arrogance of the highest order to demand that UKIP liquidate itself with those respective levels of support.

It will be the FPTP electoral system that Conservatives fight to defend that will put Ed Miliband into Number 10. FPTP will give Labour at least 100 extra MPs compared to STV in the next Parliament, and possibly even more when you consider that many Labour voters are reluctant tactical voters. You will have only yourselves to blame.

With some form of PR, say STV, there would be a clear majority in the Commons for an in/out Referendum on EU membership. The only question would be whether to hold it as soon as possible - as I assume most kippers and some Tories would prefer - or whether to wait for Cameron's fabled renegotiation in 2017.

I voted against AV. I agree with Nick that it is a miserable little compromise.

I'm a fan of STV (probably multi member)

Biggus Nickus?

TheScreamingEagles

Latest Tory campaign video, designed especially for Bobajob (antifrank as well)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtckCiG3E8E

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

I was counting the seconds until someone posted the 'Single European Act'. This is nonsense.

She spent months pursuing the UK rebate with the EU when she came to office. Even at that time, as early as 1980, she wanted far-reaching reform of European institutions, including the Common Agricultural Policy:

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n11/david-runciman/rat-a-tat-a-tat-a-tat-a-tat

She signed the SEA act, with strong encouragement from her pro-European cabinet members, because she favoured the deregulation and trade advantages of it. But quickly regretted it after she signed it and saw the direction the EEC was taking.

During her term in office in 1986, she backed the US bid for Westland, over the European bid, angering Heseltine which indirectly led to her downfall four years later.

In 1988, she made her controversial Bruges speech, attacking the principles of closer European integration.

Her acquiescence to the ERM whilst in office, was a sign of her weakness in the late 1980s. Once Lawson backed it, she could oppose it no longer.

In 1990, whilst still PM, she attacked the idea of a European superstate - her "No No No!" speech. Arguably, this hastened her final downfall.

After she left office, she came to the view that Britain should leave the EU (post-Maastrict) but her advisors advised her to stay silent. This is nearly 20 years before it became 'fashionable' to do so:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/charles-moore/2013/05/after-leaving-office-margaret-thatcher-believed-britain-should-leave-the-eu/

She called for fundamental renegotiation of the UK's relationship with the EU in Statecraft in 2002, including common agricultural, fisheries, foreign and defence policies

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11598879

She was also pro-capital punishment, resisted the hunger-strikers, pro-military response to the Falklands, didn't want to hand back Hong Kong, tough on immigration (recognising people's fears of being "swamped") unashamedly pro-council house sales, and wanted privatisation to benefit the average man on the street. At the end, she was an overt red-blooded Eurosceptic.

All at a time when a majority of her cabinet either had grave reservations, or opposed those things. She suffered anti-bourgoiese snobbery from within her own party, a large chunk of the civil service, and from the left-leaning arts establishment - throughout her whole time in office.

She always talked about 'our people'; she did not mean the Tory or metropolitan elite. Throughout her whole time in office, she saw herself as an outsider. And in many ways, she was.

In what way was she not the first UKIP leader?

weejonnie

Since Ashcroft's polling is 2 - 5 weeks old, (Pre Carswell, Pre Reckless) the figures are probably even worse - unless Ed's c**k up at the conference and Dave's 'speech of the century' had any effect.

What is interesting is the 8% Lib Dem switch to UKIP.

Tykejohnno

The national union of students wouldn't pass a motion to condemn the Islamic state but they did pass a motion to oppose UKIP.


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100014284/beyond-parody-national-union-of-students-wont-condemn-the-islamic-state/

http://www.nusconnect.org.uk/blogs/blog/danielstevens/2014/05/20/NUS-is-right-to-have-passed-policy-to-Oppose-UKIP/

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Latest Tory campaign video, designed especially for Bobajob (antifrank as well)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtckCiG3E8E

Comments disabled for the video - why could that be ?

Grandiose

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - it's not about *preferring* the uneducated to lead our country to the educated. That's missing the point. It's about the educated recognising they are in a privileged position and have a duty to listen to, understand and represent the balance of opinion across the whole country, rather than just amongst themselves.

That's democracy. If you don't do it, you ain't going to get re-elected.

One example that needs no introduction: Margaret Thatcher. She held a degree in Chemistry, and in Law, and was by any stretch of the imagination educated and intelligent.

However, she was never part of the metropolitan elite. In many respects, she was an outsider for almost her whole term in office.

In fact, I'd argue, she was the first UKIP PM. Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

She helped set up the way for thousands of Europeans to come over here to live and work.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

Relevant:

http://twitpic.com/dolui4

MarkHopkins

Casino_Royale said:

...

In what way was [Thatcher] not the first UKIP leader?

Because UKIP was founded after Thatcher left office?

nigel4england

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

Dunno, but calm yourself down and back The Romford Pele in the 3.50 at Cheltenham.

Don't normally give horsey tips on here these days, but I thought the name might appeal to you as much as the form.

Thanks! If I may name drop, I am on first name terms w the actual Romford Pele, he goes to my gym!

I've met him too, decent bloke.

My wife has not forgiven me for not backing Little Lady Katie in the first, as that is my daughters name. 16/1 as well.

I fancy Breton Rock later.

Plato

Fingers crossed this isn't part of a wider wave. We used to see it in recruitment agency business about 4 months before it became obvious elsewhere.

Decisions slow right down/quietly put on hold, contracts ended, work left undone unless truly essential, even temps who were part of the furniture in some client offices were finally dropped.

Training is definitely in the Nice To Have space that's culled early. Along with marketing spending IME.

Beverley_C said:

HurstLlama said:

You are not the first small business owner that I have heard this from in recent weeks. Training is an area that gets cut very early when things start to look dicey and a chum's training company has had a batch of programmes cancelled. Of course it may be just down to ordinary business fluctuations, but it may not be.

One of my ex-customers ran a very successful nationwide training scheme for many years, but he has basically cut it in half, sold off one part to a larger firm and kept a part of the business that he can mange by himself. All of his 10 staff are gone. Bookings just stopped.

HurstLlama said:

Going into a downturn with a £100bn p.a. deficit, more than £1tn debt and an unreformed banking sector could be interesting. Let us hope and pray it doesn't come to that.

I agree Mr Llama. Let us hope that it is a temporary blip.

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

isam said:

I see bigger major titties in the thread header!! Have I gone sex mad???

Dunno, but calm yourself down and back The Romford Pele in the 3.50 at Cheltenham.

Don't normally give horsey tips on here these days, but I thought the name might appeal to you as much as the form.

Thanks! If I may name drop, I am on first name terms w the actual Romford Pele, he goes to my gym!

You'd better back it twice!

shiney2

First YorksPCC election leaflet turned up from LabourHQ.

No mention of reason for election. Almost as if the enforced resignation of previous labour incumbent Shaun Wright (also Head of Children's services in Rotherham between 2005 and 2010) was just a normal event. Perhaps it is in labour land. Littered with 'Change' etc. Nice to see lab echoing Mr Carswell's words. I'm guessing the multiple anti-UKIP falsehoods mean Lab are a bit concerned.

Casino_Royale

Re: AV/STV. I'm moving towards Nick Palmer's idea of PR open list. Probably slightly larger constituencies of 5-6 members each.

For instance, I could easily see Surrey Inner and Surrey Outer being created, each with 5-6 MPs. The main cities could easily work as one constituency: Bristol, Manchester and Leeds.

Wherever possible, they would try to match traditional county and city metropolitan boundaries.

weejonnie

rogerh said:

If UKIP declines in Tory /Lab battlegrounds and UKIP is currently taking more Con than Labour voters ,we should see gap between Labour and Cons narrowing

However looking at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election it appears that the recent increase in UKIP rating has resulted in Labour falling more than The Conservative Party in the polls. So the first derivative is worse for Labour. (d/dt(UKIP) = -(d/dt(Labour))

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

I was counting the seconds until someone posted the 'Single European Act'. This is nonsense.

In what way was she not the first UKIP leader?

You mean you were counting the seconds until someone brought in the facts?

Given Kippers and others heap opprobrium on those Brits that favoured British membership of the Single Currency, what do you think they would have said about the person who signed us up the Single European Act.

She's a lazy out of touch Oxbridge lady who doesn't know what treaties she was signing.

See Grandiose's link below to see where a modern Thatcher would be.

___Bobajob___

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

When are we going to get some Scotland specific polling - anyone know ?

It's a big old piece of the jigsaw !

I'm expecting a Survation soon.

Also his Lordship is polling some Lab held seats in Scotland.

Laird Ashcroft?

TheScreamingEagles

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - it's not about *preferring* the uneducated to lead our country to the educated. That's missing the point. It's about the educated recognising they are in a privileged position and have a duty to listen to, understand and represent the balance of opinion across the whole country, rather than just amongst themselves.

That's democracy. If you don't do it, you ain't going to get re-elected.

One example that needs no introduction: Margaret Thatcher. She held a degree in Chemistry, and in Law, and was by any stretch of the imagination educated and intelligent.

However, she was never part of the metropolitan elite. In many respects, she was an outsider for almost her whole term in office.

In fact, I'd argue, she was the first UKIP PM. Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

She helped set up the way for thousands of Europeans to come over here to live and work.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

Relevant:

http://twitpic.com/dolui4

I've pondered that for ages, I'm still not sure where I'd belong.

I'd probably be a Liberal, but can see me being a National too.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

I was counting the seconds until someone posted the 'Single European Act'. This is nonsense.

In what way was she not the first UKIP leader?

You mean you were counting the seconds until someone brought in the facts?

Given Kippers and others heap opprobrium on those Brits that favoured British membership of the Single Currency, what do you think they would have said about the person who signed us up the Single European Act.

She's a lazy out of touch Oxbridge lady who doesn't know what treaties she was signing.

See Grandiose's link below to see where a modern Thatcher would be.

I see the awful, dishonest tactic of asking a question, answering it yourself, then drawing a conclusion from your own answer is alive and well

weejonnie

Plato said:

Fingers crossed this isn't part of a wider wave. We used to see it in recruitment agency business about 4 months before it became obvious elsewhere.

Decisions slow right down/quietly put on hold, contracts ended, work left undone unless truly essential, even temps who were part of the furniture in some client offices were finally dropped.

Training is definitely in the Nice To Have space that's culled early. Along with marketing spending IME.

Beverley_C said:

HurstLlama said:

You are not the first small business owner that I have heard this from in recent weeks. Training is an area that gets cut very early when things start to look dicey and a chum's training company has had a batch of programmes cancelled. Of course it may be just down to ordinary business fluctuations, but it may not be.

One of my ex-customers ran a very successful nationwide training scheme for many years, but he has basically cut it in half, sold off one part to a larger firm and kept a part of the business that he can mange by himself. All of his 10 staff are gone. Bookings just stopped.

HurstLlama said:

Going into a downturn with a £100bn p.a. deficit, more than £1tn debt and an unreformed banking sector could be interesting. Let us hope and pray it doesn't come to that.

I agree Mr Llama. Let us hope that it is a temporary blip.

Of course it could be businesses putting things on hold until after the General Election - so just a pause.

Scott_P

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

TheScreamingEagles

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

Yes please.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

Grandiose

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

The others have been well handled. That would be poor...

anotherDave

weejonnie said:

rogerh said:

If UKIP declines in Tory /Lab battlegrounds and UKIP is currently taking more Con than Labour voters ,we should see gap between Labour and Cons narrowing

However looking at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election it appears that the recent increase in UKIP rating has resulted in Labour falling more than The Conservative Party in the polls. So the first derivative is worse for Labour. (d/dt(UKIP) = -(d/dt(Labour))

Yes. This is the problem of looking at moves of 2010 voters. A 2010 Con voter might have been a 2013 Lab voter, before becoming a 2014 UKIP voter.

TCPoliticalBetting

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

He said: "I am in the dark. However, we are all on notice that should a bigger candidate come into the picture, then we may have to stand aside."

Err UKIP do things so differently to Libs, Labs and Cons! No respect for local members?

TheScreamingEagles

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

The others have been well handled. That would be poor...

Ahem, Roger Lord.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

I was counting the seconds until someone posted the 'Single European Act'. This is nonsense.

In what way was she not the first UKIP leader?

You mean you were counting the seconds until someone brought in the facts?

Given Kippers and others heap opprobrium on those Brits that favoured British membership of the Single Currency, what do you think they would have said about the person who signed us up the Single European Act.

She's a lazy out of touch Oxbridge lady who doesn't know what treaties she was signing.

See Grandiose's link below to see where a modern Thatcher would be.

You brought in a single fact. And then used to it to support a totally unsubstantiated assertion that she was somehow a europhile. Even I would have supported the SEA at the time. In fact, I believe even Tebbit did.

I've seen the link. It's an interesting bit of fun, but slightly wide of the mark. It's more complicated tha that: Thatcher did bring in tighter immigration controls, section 28 and promoted Victorian moral values. From 1988 onwards, she was unreservedly actively eurosceptic in how she governed.

I've shown you why the conclusion you drew from a single fact was a nonsense. You have chosen to ignore it.

Grandiose

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

The others have been well handled. That would be poor...

Ahem, Roger Lord.

Yeah, but they didn't actually deselect him...

Pulpstar

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

isam said:

A bit of inside info, I think the candidate will be a bit less Ukip than we are used to..

Hmm !

Sunil_Prasannan

"Indian-born UKIP candidate predicts defeat for IDS":

http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/rbnews/11540244.Indian_born_Ukip_candidate_predicts_defeat_for_Iain_Duncan_Smith/

Beverley_C

Plato said:

Training is definitely in the Nice To Have space that's culled early. Along with marketing spending IME.

Whilst not direct marketeers, we are often involved with supporting marketeers so we get culled when they do. In response I have been opening up work in domain hosting and software development which is more to my taste anyway. I still hanker after the big retail databases I used to design pre-kids.....

logical_song

OffTopic - For those interested in the technical side of the Lockheed Martin fusion story, discussed here yesterday:
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/home/blog/keeping-our-cool-about-compact-fusion/1019367.article?cmpid=tenews_605752

Scott_P

Grandiose said:

Yeah, but they didn't actually deselect him...

He is no longer the candidate...

Grandiose

Scott_P said:

Grandiose said:

Yeah, but they didn't actually deselect him...

He is no longer the candidate...

He was never the by-election candidate. Therefore he wasn't deselected for anything until after.

Obviously that was a mistake, because he felt he'd been deselected. But it's rather different from actually deselecting the 2015 candidate.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

I was counting the seconds until someone posted the 'Single European Act'. This is nonsense.

In what way was she not the first UKIP leader?

You mean you were counting the seconds until someone brought in the facts?

Given Kippers and others heap opprobrium on those Brits that favoured British membership of the Single Currency, what do you think they would have said about the person who signed us up the Single European Act.

She's a lazy out of touch Oxbridge lady who doesn't know what treaties she was signing.

See Grandiose's link below to see where a modern Thatcher would be.

You brought in a single fact. And then used to it to support a totally unsubstantiated assertion that she was somehow a europhile. Even I would have supported the SEA at the time. In fact, I believe even Tebbit did.

I've seen the link. It's an interesting bit of fun, but slightly wide of the mark. It's more complicated tha that: Thatcher did bring in tighter immigration controls, section 28 and promoted Victorian moral values. From 1988 onwards, she was unreservedly actively eurosceptic in how she governed.

I've shown you why the conclusion you drew from a single fact was a nonsense. You have chosen to ignore it.

Margaret Thatcher was no fan of Victorian moral values. Section 28 was not the norm for her.

As a new MP in the 50s/60s she voted to decriminalise homosexuality.

As PM, she decriminalised homosexuality in Northern Ireland and Scotland. She had a gayer as her PPS.

She didn't think Cecil Parkinson should have to resign for bumping uglies with his secretary.

isam

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

isam said:

A bit of inside info, I think the candidate will be a bit less Ukip than we are used to..

Hmm !

Its three stops on the train from me.. can you imagine I am selected!!!

Plus I am on at 20/1!!!!

An all time coup!

Sean_F

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

I know Mr. Smith of old. This is a very good decision on UKIP's part.

Scott_P

Grandiose said:

Obviously that was a mistake, because he felt he'd been deselected. But it's rather different from actually deselecting the 2015 candidate.

He was the 2015 candidate.

Now he is not the 2015 candidate.

Looks like a deselection. Smells like a deselection.

Sean_F

I think there's very little doubt that Margaret Thatcher, were she alive today, would be in favour of withdrawal from the EU, as presently constituted.

chestnut

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

isam

There is money to be made if you think Farage wont be in the debates, and are prepared to bet

4/6 to take place
5/4 No

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/itv-four-way-debate-to-take-place

Ah if only I was on at 9/4.. still, a moral victory

isam

Sean_F said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Slotted UKIP Candidate’s Surprise at Sudden Sacking http://t.co/L8BH2xhR5j

Stephen Metcalfe to defect?

I am not Kerry Smith!

But I mentioned this yesterday when we were discussing betting on this seat...

It's nothing to do with last nights result, and it's not a defection

I know Mr. Smith of old. This is a very good decision on UKIP's part.

Vanilla emails..

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

I was counting the seconds until someone posted the 'Single European Act'. This is nonsense.

In what way was she not the first UKIP leader?

You mean you were counting the seconds until someone brought in the facts?

Given Kippers and others heap opprobrium on those Brits that favoured British membership of the Single Currency, what do you think they would have said about the person who signed us up the Single European Act.

She's a lazy out of touch Oxbridge lady who doesn't know what treaties she was signing.

See Grandiose's link below to see where a modern Thatcher would be.

You brought in a single fact. And then used to it to support a totally unsubstantiated assertion that she was somehow a europhile. Even I would have supported the SEA at the time. In fact, I believe even Tebbit did.

I've seen the link. It's an interesting bit of fun, but slightly wide of the mark. It's more complicated tha that: Thatcher did bring in tighter immigration controls, section 28 and promoted Victorian moral values. From 1988 onwards, she was unreservedly actively eurosceptic in how she governed.

I've shown you why the conclusion you drew from a single fact was a nonsense. You have chosen to ignore it.

Margaret Thatcher was no fan of Victorian moral values. Section 28 was not the norm for her.

As a new MP in the 50s/60s she voted to decriminalise homosexuality.

As PM, she decriminalised homosexuality in Northern Ireland and Scotland. She had a gayer as her PPS.

She didn't think Cecil Parkinson should have to resign for bumping uglies with his secretary.

Never sent his daughter a birthday card !

TCPoliticalBetting

Sean_F said:

I think there's very little doubt that Margaret Thatcher, were she alive today, would be in favour of withdrawal from the EU, as presently constituted.

True. But not UKIPs growing list of socialist policies.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Discuss.

Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act.

First Kipper PM? Lol she'd be charactised as an out of touch Europhile with ordinary Britons.

Margaret Thatcher was no fan of Victorian moral values. Section 28 was not the norm for her.

As a new MP in the 50s/60s she voted to decriminalise homosexuality.

As PM, she decriminalised homosexuality in Northern Ireland and Scotland. She had a gayer as her PPS.

She didn't think Cecil Parkinson should have to resign for bumping uglies with his secretary.

"She believed that Victorian family values were the way to improve society, through people bettering themselves. This was not just through economic means, "but there was an element of it being linked to respectability and societal values", Prof Toye says.

Conventional marriage and a nuclear family were the building blocks, he says.

One example of her impact on society was the inclusion of Section 28 of the Local Government Act 1988. The controversial clause stated that a local authority shall not "promote the teaching in any maintained school of the acceptability of homosexuality as a pretended family relationship".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22079683

"The other day I appeared on a certain television programme. And I was asked whether I was trying to restore "Victorian values". I said straight out, yes I was. And I am. And if you ask me whether I believe in the puritan work ethic, I'll give you an equally straight answer to that too."

Speech to Glasgow Chamber of Commerce 1983:

http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/105244

"Children who need to be taught to respect traditional moral values are being taught that they have an inalienable right to be gay."

Speech to Conservative Party Conference 1987

I think she didn't really understand homosexuality, and turned a blind eye to it; Charles Moore thinks she might not even have been able to recognise who 'was' and 'wasn't' in her inner circle.

Either way, it's clear she didn't think it should be illegal. But she certainly was a fan of Victorian values and family values.

MikeSmithson

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

JosiasJessop

logical_song said:

OffTopic - For those interested in the technical side of the Lockheed Martin fusion story, discussed here yesterday:
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/home/blog/keeping-our-cool-about-compact-fusion/1019367.article?cmpid=tenews_605752

Glad to see you read theengineer too!

If Dr Thomas McGuire has spoken out of turn or told untruths, then expect him not to be a project lead at LM for much longer. This sort of thing can cause problems for a listed company's share price.

But a few things make me think this is not the case:

1) He's spoken about it before, at Google's 'Solve for X' conference in Feb 2013;
2) They have a product page for it on their main website: http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html
3) LM Skunkworks have been officially known to be working on such things for a few years now.

It seems fair to think that they're onto something. I can't see McGuire releasing information like this without prior permission of his Skunkwork and LM bosses, especially for a second time.

But your caution may be right. Or perhaps, just perhaps, some darned good scientists and engineers have found a way forward ...

taffys

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

Indeed, and Ashcroft does tend to over state labour slightly, if H&M is any yardstick.

The tories on 31 with YG when UKIP are on 18 isn't the end of the world for Dave.

Eastwinger

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Yet Labours lead continues to decline.

logical_song

JosiasJessop said:

logical_song said:

OffTopic - For those interested in the technical side of the Lockheed Martin fusion story, discussed here yesterday:
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/home/blog/keeping-our-cool-about-compact-fusion/1019367.article?cmpid=tenews_605752

Glad to see you read theengineer too!

If Dr Thomas McGuire has spoken out of turn or told untruths, then expect him not to be a project lead at LM for much longer. This sort of thing can cause problems for a listed company's share price.

But a few things make me think this is not the case:

1) He's spoken about it before, at Google's 'Solve for X' conference in Feb 2013;
2) They have a product page for it on their main website: http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html
3) LM Skunkworks have been officially known to be working on such things for a few years now.

It seems fair to think that they're onto something. I can't see McGuire releasing information like this without prior permission of his Skunkwork and LM bosses, especially for a second time.

But your caution may be right. Or perhaps, just perhaps, some darned good scientists and engineers have found a way forward ...

Well the world could do with some good news after Ebola, the economy and UKIP (Only joking ;-))

Lennon

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Mike, I normally agree with you - but I am struggling to see where you get this from. For every UKIP vote currently, historically 1 has been Lab and 2 have been Con. That is what has got UKIP to the level at which they are at. However, it doesn't follow that every 3 incremental UKIP votes are coming in the same proportion from historic voters.

isam

Eastwinger said:

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Yet Labours lead continues to decline.

Small sample but the Lib Dem uptick cant be good for Labour can it?

So as UKIP go up, they take more Labour than Cons (Ratio now 1:2 from 1:3?) But Lab are losing to LDs as well meaning Lab vs Con is tighter

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

I think there's very little doubt that Margaret Thatcher, were she alive today, would be in favour of withdrawal from the EU, as presently constituted.

The point I was trying to make (which some seem to have missed) is that there is a good argument to be made that Margaret Thatcher ("our" great leader) was the 1st UKIP Prime Minister. Or, if you prefer, a UKIP-sympathetic leader (not of the metropolitan elite) of a UKIP-Conservative alliance that commanded substantial C1/C2 support. She spoke the language of plenty of ordinary lower-middle class/aspirational working class people, and understood their hopes, fears and aspirations. And consequently won three decisive election victories.

There are many other similar facets and aspects, and (were it not for her age and historic partisan loyalty, like Tebbit) she might well be a member of UKIP today.

So there's no point in Conservatives and Conservative-UKIP defectors throwing rocks and abuse each way, and tearing chunks out of each other.

We've worked successfully together in the past, and we can work together in the future.

MikeSmithson

Lennon said:

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Mike, I normally agree with you - but I am struggling to see where you get this from. For every UKIP vote currently, historically 1 has been Lab and 2 have been Con. That is what has got UKIP to the level at which they are at. However, it doesn't follow that every 3 incremental UKIP votes are coming in the same proportion from historic voters.

True. But the trend suggest that this is continuing.

I don't focus on national polls but on the marginals polling which is far more significant.

What happens in the non-marginals is irrelevant.

isam

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

I think there's very little doubt that Margaret Thatcher, were she alive today, would be in favour of withdrawal from the EU, as presently constituted.

The point I was trying to make (which some seem to have missed) is that there is a good argument to be made that Margaret Thatcher ("our" great leader) was the 1st UKIP Prime Minister. Or, if you prefer, the UKIP-sympathetic leader of a UKIP-Conservative alliance that commanded substantial C1/C2 support. And consequently won three decisive election victories.

There are many similar facets and aspects, and (were it not for her age and historic partisan loyalty, like Tebbit) she might well be a member of UKIP today.

So there's no point in Conservatives and Conservative-UKIP defectors throwing rocks and abuse each way, and tearing chunks out of each other.

We've worked together in the past, and we can work together in the future.

"Nigel Lawson, Thatcher's Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1983 to 1989, listed the Thatcherite ideals as:

"Free markets, financial discipline, firm control over public expenditure, tax cuts, nationalism, 'Victorian values' (of the Samuel Smiles self-help variety), privatisation and a dash of populism."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thatcherism

Doesn't seem a million miles away from UKIP to me

Scott_P

Casino_Royale said:

there is a good argument to be made that Margaret Thatcher ("our" great leader) was the 1st UKIP Prime Minister.

Wishful revisionism and whataboutery is not a good argument.

Socrates

@Casino_Royale

Both Thatcher and Blair recognised that the swing voters that mattered were those in the upper working class/lower middle class. Cameron's out of touchness made him think they were in the upper middle class. That's why Blair and Thatcher won three elections on the trot, and Cameron couldn't get a majority.

Eastwinger

isam said:

Eastwinger said:

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Yet Labours lead continues to decline.

Small sample but the Lib Dem uptick cant be good for Labour can it?

So as UKIP go up, they take more Labour than Cons (Ratio now 1:2 from 1:3?) But Lab are losing to LDs as well meaning Lab vs Con is tighter

Lab obviously losing to someone else Lab / Con gap would be increasing, but it isn't.

Grandiose

Yesterday's YouGov showed as many Labour to Tory switchers and Tory to Labour. (I think over more samples the difference is too small anyway.)

TCPoliticalBetting

JosiasJessop and logical song

If we really are into a world of fusion reactors in 10 years time, oil and gas prices are going to drop through the floor.

TCPoliticalBetting

isam said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

I think there's very little doubt that Margaret Thatcher, were she alive today, would be in favour of withdrawal from the EU, as presently constituted.

The point I was trying to make (which some seem to have missed) is that there is a good argument to be made that Margaret Thatcher ("our" great leader) was the 1st UKIP Prime Minister. Or, if you prefer, the UKIP-sympathetic leader of a UKIP-Conservative alliance that commanded substantial C1/C2 support. And consequently won three decisive election victories.

There are many similar facets and aspects, and (were it not for her age and historic partisan loyalty, like Tebbit) she might well be a member of UKIP today.

So there's no point in Conservatives and Conservative-UKIP defectors throwing rocks and abuse each way, and tearing chunks out of each other.

We've worked together in the past, and we can work together in the future.

"Nigel Lawson, Thatcher's Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1983 to 1989, listed the Thatcherite ideals as:

"Free markets, financial discipline, firm control over public expenditure, tax cuts, nationalism, 'Victorian values' (of the Samuel Smiles self-help variety), privatisation and a dash of populism."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thatcherism

Doesn't seem a million miles away from UKIP to me

Yes to UKIP 2010, No to the UKIP of autumn 2014.

anotherDave

MikeSmithson said:

Lennon said:

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Mike, I normally agree with you - but I am struggling to see where you get this from. For every UKIP vote currently, historically 1 has been Lab and 2 have been Con. That is what has got UKIP to the level at which they are at. However, it doesn't follow that every 3 incremental UKIP votes are coming in the same proportion from historic voters.

True. But the trend suggest that this is continuing.

I don't focus on national polls but on the marginals polling which is far more significant.

What happens in the non-marginals is irrelevant.

One of the great gifts of the UKIP surge, is it changes which seats are marginal/safe.

Heywood and Middleton is a safe Labour seat on 2010 numbers. Now it's not.
Clacton is a safe Conservative seat on 2010 numbers. Now it's not.

isam

Eastwinger said:

isam said:

Eastwinger said:

MikeSmithson said:

chestnut said:

Most of Ashcroft's polling was done early/mid September.

Since then, Tories flat, Kippers and Libs up, Labour down.

There are a few probable holds in there now that were narrow Labour leads four/five weeks ago.

But the boost for UKIP helps LAB not CON. That's the whole point. It is the differential switch that is so damaging to the Tories.

For every LAB vote that is going to UKIP there are two CON ones.

Yet Labours lead continues to decline.

Small sample but the Lib Dem uptick cant be good for Labour can it?

So as UKIP go up, they take more Labour than Cons (Ratio now 1:2 from 1:3?) But Lab are losing to LDs as well meaning Lab vs Con is tighter

Lab obviously losing to someone else Lab / Con gap would be increasing, but it isn't.

My guess is Labour are losing 2010 voters to UKIP & Greens plus they are losing the 2010 LDs they gained

Cons just losing to UKIP but at twice the rate of Labour

My hope for 2015 is to see the big two as close to a combined 60% of the vote as possible