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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Philip Hammond on maneuvers, and should you be backing him as next out of the cabinet?
In recent months, Philip Hammond has been offering his views on a range of topics, from Philip Hammond: cut welfare not troops to Gay marriage laws have created ‘real sense of anger says Philip Hammond and finally, on that perennial fault line for the Conservative party, when he said, he would vote to leave the European Union which led to a rebuke from the Prime Minister.
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Took on the MoD and 'won' in the sense of cutting our Armed Forces to match their budget, but did not effect the wholesale clear-out of the Ministry 'staffers' who eat up so much of the MoD's budget - and to so little effect (cf Gove at DfES).
I can see him as a future CotE - someone, sometime has to start the £150-£200 billion pa of cuts that are required - and it might as well be him. Ending all Welfare payments, Education and NHS would allow us to repay our £1.5 trillion of debt and create a sensible surplus in 3-5 years.**
Whilst I am not, remotely, suggesting that is either sensible or possible, it shows where real (BBC-speak 'savage') cuts HAVE to be made - and all are protected under the Coalition's mind-set or Agreement.
A freezing of ALL benefits for 5 years AND an end to 'Universal Benefits' (Child Benefit (2 children max); Pensions to higher-rate tax-payers (pension age to rise sharply - and soon);NHS care (outside A&E and end-of-life care) for those with private health insurance and/or are higher-rate tax-payers) would be a decent start on what's required.
Hammond has the face to go with such a fiscally-sensible Govt's economic policy.
OGH rates him highly as next Conservative (OGH = 'Tory') Party leader - and hence LotO. I cannot (even remotely) see that myself, and, like Fluffy Thoughts (below), I cannot see Hammond going anywhere before GE 2015 - and to Shadow Chancellor thereafter.
** Edit: With the national debt costing £48 billion pa in interest payments alone, at a time when interest rates are at an all-time low (<2%), then anyone with half a brain can see that, when the debt is 50-75% larger (as currently planned) and interest rates have doubled back to their historical average of >5%, we'll be paying something well in excess of £150 billion pa in interest payments alone - which is more than the NHS and not that far short of the current Welfare Budget (which is, itself, continuing to grow).
That's simply not possible - and, BenM/tim/Roger et all, not possible no matter what levels of future 'growth' you can dream up as remotely feasible, even in la-la land.
So that leaves massive currency appreciation (hahaha - not going to happen!) or rampant inflation as the only possible ways to impoverish those who took up that debt (ie pension funds etc): we're all going to get much, much, MUCH poorer and unless and until a Westminster-based political party comes out and says that, then the credibility of ALL politicians will be degraded even lower: Gay Marriage debates at a time when (eg) Child Benefit limits (and its eventual abolition); sharp rises in Pension Age and tax benefits for those who stay at home and care for the young, sick, frail or elderly should be their total focus of current political debate? Pathetic, Cameron/Clegg/Millipede - utterly pathetic: the equivalent of organising a Roman circus when the Huns are at the gates.
A programme on R4 last evening ((8pm?) on 'Blue Labour' shows that some, at least, with even the Socialist Party are prepared to debate and accept that centralised, Whitehall-set targets are not the way forward and that local, diverse, flexible, variable, inducement-led benefits (severely reduced in size, scope and cash) are the way forward.
Toynbee and the Fabians bitterly opposed this suggestion - but, of course, made no suggestions as to how their proposed largess should be paid for. Interestingly, a London Borough (Haringey?) with a Glaswegian-accented Labour Leader/Mayor was already implementing such a scheme, to the popular approval of those interviewed.
It must be on BBC iPlayer - well worth a listen, IMO.
2) David Cameron isn't in a position where he could sack someone just for being notably rightwing
3) Philip Hammond has said nothing inconsistent with membership of the Cabinet
33/1 on him leaving the Cabinet next is, however, a perfect sensible bet on the basis that it could just as easily be him as anyone else and there are only 23 members of the Cabinet.
antifrank's razor therefore makes this a good bet.
1) Stockholm now has a surprisingly high number of beggars.
2) I was told that the unemployment rate there is now 8% and that this is likely to doom the incumbent government to defeat in the upcoming general election.
3) For a country where 1 in 7 are immigrants, you don't see very many of them.
4) There's a lot of soul-searching about the rioting, with many echoes of the discussions in Britain in 2011. The left are blaming inequality and social exclusion while the right are blaming breakdown of family values. There are rumours of many of the rioters having travelled some distance to participate in the riots. As always, the speculation far outruns the facts.
5) The Swedes seem to be determined to cover themselves with really bad tattoos. Yes, that's even by comparison with Britain.
It's not worth rocking the boat like that if you're already a frontrunner. It's only worth doing if everybody is ignoring you, and you need to do something to get attention.
The Tory Party at the moment reminds me of Labour in early 2009 - we kept thinking that maybe we should change the leader but let's wait and see what happens at point X. The current tendency seems to be that they'll give Cameron until the Euro-elections in 2014. Dave will be comfortable with that - yes, the results will probably be terrible, but then the "we can't change within months of a General Election" line kicks in, and would-be successors prefer to wait to pick up the pieces rather than have 6 months in office and then go down with the ship.
Incidentally, I'm not convinced we'd have done better under someone else in 2010 - we were just tired out and everyone knew it. Brown was tough and resilient and there's a lot to be said for that when you're in a Grim Last Stand situation. The Tories would clearly do better in the short term with Boris, not so much with the others.
Has he suddenly become US Defense Secretary ?? .... or is he still on manoeuvres as Secretary of State for Defence here in Blighty ?!?
I noticed the tattoo thing in Vancouver. Seems the whole population of Vancouver is covered in crappy tattoos. Is this a lefty progressive alternative lifestyle thing? Where's the hippy capital of the world? Queenstown, NZ? San Francisco? Brighton? Maybe the tattoo counts there are off the chart.
Osborne needs £11.5bn of cuts for the spending review next month and reportedly is struggling to find it. Hammond has been explicit that defence has already borne its share and it is not surprising that he is rattling a few cages to protect his position.
None of this means that Hammond is going anywhere but the stresses of having a few smaller departments bearing all of the strain in cuts will continue to rumble on over the summer. Expect at least one serious public disagreement with the Lib Dems on spending priorities too.
There is no such thing as a good tattoo.
http://cdn-i.dmdentertainment.com/funpages/cms_content/17488/tattoos1d.png
It is interesting that even in Germany the shape of the old DDR is still so distinct. The UK is also the only place other than Germany with much in the way of green. Der Speigel is reporting that the German government is having a change of heart and a willingness to spend more, particularly in southern europe where the picture is bleak indeed: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-government-to-test-stimulus-instead-of-austerity-a-901946.html
It seems even Angela Merkel gets it about politicians, elections and spending.
..and the government should focus relentlessly on living standards in the next 18 months. Energy prices, council tax, food costs, alcohol costs, rail fares, rent, etc, etc - all need concerted and structural government action to force the costs down.
Scrapping windmill subsidies might be good opener for 10.
"Off the important topic of tattoos this is a really interesting map of EU unemployment"
Thank you. That's a really interesting map. Poor Spain Portugal and Ireland.
If I was a Romanian/Bulgarian I would be learning German on the basis of that map. Austria is doing well.
I agree with you about the nordic countries but southern europe is truly desperate.
Today's media contain many references to the scale and extent of cuts to State spending that are going to be imposed from 2016/7 onwards.
real cuts this time - not just pretendy ones (ie genuine cash cuts, not 'reductions in the rate of increase in spending' cuts). The scale mentioned is considerable - up to £50 billion pa, to reduce total spending by £150 billion pa by 2020 or so.
Which interviewer will ask Osborne about that? Where and when will the axe fall on the Big Spenders - of Health, Education, Welfare, which is where Universal Benefits are going to have to be a) sharply reduced in scope, scale and cost and b) ended as a concept.
'Blue Labour' were on R4 last night accepting this - so why not what is (nominally) a Conservative-led Govt, with a Conservative CotE?
"Switzerland, Austria and the Netherlands look pretty green,"
All of the seriously depressed areas are on the outer fringes. The literal heart of Europe looks in rude good health. Perhaps a good 48 sheet opener for the Europhiles if the referendum happens
NorCal can be pretty leftie though.
Not that the trend in France is good, but it is worse in Italy and even the Netherlands [though from a lower base] as these charts show:
http://www.bls.gov/fls/intl_unemployment_rates_monthly.htm#Rchart1
Netherlands should be particularly worrying for German policymakers. It suggests that they may not be able to isolate the Germanic core from the problems of the periphery indefinitely.
"Right now I suspect that George Osborne has hopes that by 2015 he will be able to launch his own sub-election campaign under the theme "the man who was proved right""
It's the way you tell 'em!
As for southern Europe, the current situation is not sustainable for much longer. After the German election, something will give. I suspect it will be Germany.
GO isn’t doing that bad a job – played it quite straight so far, not knocked it out of the park (unless you compare the UK to mainland Europe and why on earth would anyone want to do that?), not driven it into the ground, things ticking up, a couple of ticking time bombs (yes help to buy, but it’s not the end of the world, really) – so...why would DC ditch him? He hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster although certainly not perfect.
As for Hammond to CoE not a chance – the only way a replacement would work is if there’s someone new, dynamic, hugely capable and seen to be (and no Justine, that’s not you). A safe pair of hands isn’t required right now – either he’s going to change course (he isn’t) or it’s carry on as is.
So I’m with the “he ain’t going nowhere”s.
Cornwall and the Scottish Highlands are also both green, but no-one would suggest they are economic powerhouses. Tentatively I'd suggest that the green areas of Romania were similarly rural and remote from the Romanian capital, and that most of the unemployed Romanians from those regions have already migrated internally within Romania in search of work.
I assumed the Scottish green was down to Aberdeen and oil, while Cornwall's was down to tourism. My Romania comment was not meant seriously.
The organisation, which conducts research into retail, technology and crime, says this would equate to 62,000 shops closing down.
The CRR believes large areas of the UK's High Streets would become housing.
It also says as many as 316,000 workers would lose their jobs.
The CRR says online shopping will continue to expand and the proportion of shopping done via the internet will double to 22%.
The report, which was produced by Prof Joshua Bamfield, said the first shops to go would be pharmacies and health and beauty stores.
Retailers specialising in music, books, cards, stationery and gifts will be next.
DIY shops will also suffer.
In its report, the CRR compares the costs of opening a High Street store and an online warehouse.
It says opening a small store on a High Street in the Midlands would cost about £10,000 a month, whereas opening an equivalent space in a warehouse on the outskirts of a similar town would cost between £650 and £1,800 a month.
The director general of the British Retail Consortium, Helen Dickinson, said the country would have to get used to a very different look and feel on the High Streets of the future.
The CRR estimates that there are about 280,000 shops across the country. Closures on the scale predicted by the organisation would leave 220,000 by 2018.
It points out that 16 major retailers have gone into administration this year, with the loss of almost 15,000 jobs."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22686180
This means that to have any effect both rents and business rates must drop sharply.
Presumably food and a certain amount of clothing will stay (people will want to "feel" the cloth and try things on - or not?
@NickPalmer - Glad you like the links, also helps me, when I make an assertion in a header, that's evidence for my assertion.
@Antifrank - I desperately wanted to put in a reference to Bizarre Love Triangle and World In Motion, but it just wasn't meant to be.
Years ago, we told our eldest son that we wouldn't worry who he married as long as she didn't appear on "The Jeremy Kyle Show" and wasn't covered in tattoos.
Incidentally, the current 'scroungers' meme is being stimulated by shows like JK and others.
PS I know it should be "whom he married" but I'm turning into a barbarian.
Alan Sked: We need a Eurosceptic party of the centre left
I left Ukip, the party I founded, when it became a magnet for bigots. But what happened to leftwing opposition to the EU?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/28/we-need-eurosceptic-party-centre-left
"I'm blaming auto-correct for the Americanisation of my spelling, honest."
I'm blaming TSE for failing to override the auto-correct or perhaps Ukip if all else fails, honest.
You may have noticed that the beggars in Stockholm are 90% Roma, not ethnic Swedes. Rates of petty theft are also going through the roof here.
As for the 'riots', the numbers of troublemakers involved have been blown out of all proportion. They've been limited to areas with high rates of 'new' immigration from countries such as Iraq and Somalia. The more established immigrant communities here like the Turks/Kurds/Iranians are fuming with anger at being lumped together with the new arrivals where the blame is concerned.
As for the b/s reporting in foreign, (as well as some domestic), media that's blaming it all on deprivation/poverty, nothing could be further from the truth. It's purely a lack of integration into Swedish society by these kids parents. Plus the bonus lack of parental discipline. There is zero genuine poverty in Sweden, inequality yes. But compared to Bill Gates we are all poor according to some idiots.
The suburbs of Stockholm where the trouble has occured are just becoming ghettos, not poor deprived ghettos, but mini states all to themselves.
Sweden has decided to accept high rates of immigration, shame they don't have a clue how to deal with the consequences. Multicultural crap strikes again.
The far right,(not BNP style I may add),Swedish Democracy party is likely to come third in next years election. My guess is that the two largest parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates may be forced into some kind of grand coalition.
There was a VI poll with that ComRes poll
The poll for the Open Europe think tank also found that 39 per cent of those who had voted Tory in 2010 would back UKIP if the European election were held now.
In a general election, the poll suggested Labour would take 37 per cent of the votes.
This would give Labour an 11-point lead over the Conservatives on 26 per cent, with UKIP on 20 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats would be trailing behind on 9 per cent.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2331759/UKIP-set-European-poll-success-powers-ahead-Tories-Labour.html#ixzz2UXQwmApt
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
Stefano P is one of the most impressive businessmen I know (although admittedly he has just sold Boots...)
Music, books are already pretty much done, and stationary and gifts are going that way.
The interesting area for the retail is low value / bulk goods. Those (dog food is a good example) where to cost of shipping are a significant proportion of the costs of the product. Hence a remote model doesn't really make sense.
It's not the first time that England have allowed a game to go to a draw because they have ignored the weather forecast.
This is one of the biggest captaincy cock up in years - Cook has screwed up here.
The biggest player in Europe is zooplus.com: 30% gross margin, loss making at the EBITDA level. CVS makes around a 20% gm but doesn't break out profitability; Petsathome is similar to CVS. Both of the latter two have developed internet as a defensive strategy.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2439&view=wide
"Site Suspended Due to lack of funds LibDemBlogs is currently suspended.
A total of £8 is due before the end of the day, after which our hosts will close down the site completely."
http://www.libdemblogs.co.uk/
Please provide evidence that Osborne is "deliberately stoking rents".
The FLS will, in my view, only have a marginal (and indirect) impact on the BTL sector & in any event Fraser's tweet was historical not forward looking. I'm not worried about that scheme particularly - it's about helping the banks. Less keen on the help to buy scheme, but if it is truly temporary then it won't do too much harm.
FWIW: I keep a very close eye on the P/SP residential market in London, as well as the commercial and rental sectors inside the M25. For me it's more important than just surfing the net and misquoting a few newspaper articles and blogs.
I am a fellow rebel, but have seen some very expressive skin decoration in countries where the climate does not demand the wearing of clothes - presume that state of affairs has not reached East Sussex?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/27/eu-exit-risks-us-trade-deal
Wasn't the age limit on HB limited to those that lived near their parents?
And once attended a training course run by a tax collector from the Inland Rev and the lady was the stereotypical beautiful French femme fatale and had about 20 gorgeous Chinese flower tattoos on her arms and decollage - I hate to think what she would look like at 50 with them...
You missed my reference to Crystal, my fav New Order song (though not much of a fan really)
Suggest the reason for the increase is from furriners extracting their money from dodgy Eurozone etc economies and using it to buy property in the SE.
Suggestions on how he could prevent this on the back of a communist party manifesto.
The CBI has released its monthly survey of the consumer services sector. Confirming both antifrank's recognition that St. George is increasingly being seen as the "man who got it right" and SeanT's observations of economic recovery in Legoland, the CBI has reported business volumes rising at 10%, the fastest rate of growth experienced in the sector since August 2007.
The survey of 170 companies revealed expectations of a firm quarter ahead, with business and professional services expecting solid growth in both the value and volume of business. Consumer services firms predict that growth in business will be sustained and profits in both sectors are expected to rise strongly.
And it is not just the hard data that is showing the recovery. Confidence measures also showed substantial positive moves.
In the Consumer Services Sector
Optimism about business conditions rose further on the previous quarter (+30% compared with +6%), which is the strongest increase since September 1999 (+34%) and the third consecutive quarter of improvement.
In the Business and Professional Services Sector
Optimism about business conditions rose significantly, (+29%), at its fastest rate since February 2010 (+34%).
All is not entirely rosy though. Although retail services have seen volumes, sales and profits rise substantially, B2B services have been flat over the first four months of this year and the uptick in confidence reflects belief in future growth rather than experience of actual growth. The supply of credit finance remains constrained and employment is slightly down as firms have given short term priority to increasing productivity. Investment and capex is still below optimal levels.
Nonetheless and overall, a cause for celebration. George is so confident that he is able to leave the keys to No 11 on the Cabinet table during coffee breaks without fear of theft.
EDIT - had a look on Wiki and this looks evil stuff.
Para-phenylenediamine "black henna" use is widespread, particularly in tourist areas.[51] Because the blistering reaction appears 3 to 12 days after the application, most tourists have left and do not return to show how much damage the artist has done. This permits the artists to continue injuring others, unaware they are causing severe injuries. The high profit margins of "black henna" and the demand for body art that emulates "tribal tattoos" further encourage artists to deny the dangers.[52][53]
It is not difficult to recognize and avoid para-phenylenediamine "black henna":[54]
if a paste stains torso skin black in less than ½ hour, it has PPD in it.
if the paste is mixed with peroxide, or if peroxide is wiped over the design to bring out the color, it has PPD in it.
Anyone who has an itching and blistering reaction to a black body stain should go to a doctor, and report that they have had an application of para-phenylenediamine to their skin.
PPD sensitivity is lifelong. A person who has become sensitized through "black henna tattoos" may have future allergic reactions to perfumes, printer ink, chemical hair dyes, textile dye, photographic developer, sunscreen and some medications. A person who has had a "black henna tattoo" should consult their physician about health consequences of para-phenylenediamine sensitization
ONS Housing Index The peak was October 2007 not in 2008.
London prices have increased by 7.9% not 20% since the peak. This rate of increase is approximately half general inflation growth rates.
The post peak recovery in London started from a substantially lower base than in the UK as a whole and is therefore broadly corrective..
For 2015 he should be focussing less on past success, real or imagined, and more on the forward offer.
I do feel, however, that the picture editor could have been more enterprising. Not even a hint of a transvestite antelope?
Your evidence base?
Tories have to bear in mind that when the Great British people feel properly flush and have some spare cash they indulge themselves with really silly things like Labour governments to spend it for them. On the right track but not there yet is the key.
"Ducks are fond of lesbian orgies"
That's really the strangest poll I've ever seen. With the SAME SAMPLE, the DIFFERENCE of Westminster and European intentions appear to be:
Lab -14 (!)
Con -5
UKIP +7 (not that much of a jump really)
LD +8 (!! wtf?)
Others +4 (OK, that's the Greens)
We can spin that all kinds of ways, but it's well weird, isn't it? And before we try to explain it, it's not at all like the last YG Westminster/Europe poll a couple of weeks back, which was IIRC something like a plausible -8/-8/+12/-1. How can both be right? Perhaps there were some intervening questions which affected the mood of respondents.
I appreciate the brief is to poke the beast with a stick for a reaction but I really think a bit of moderator activity is called for.