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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI
In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample of voters.
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(actually, it's not the LibDems, Mike!)
Anyhow, isn't it time we grew up and abolished tactical voting [or adopted a system which didn't require it] ?
CON:85% LAB:35% LD:51% UKIP:42%
The electorate might not be that keen on Farage, but they still think UKIP is more competent to run that country that Labour. Oh dear.
AA (Anecdote Alert): was chatting to my sister last night who voted UKIP at the Euros and without prompting she raised doubts about staying purple for the GE 'because I haven't a clue what they stand for on General Election issues.'
As I say, it's just an anecdote. However, it could be indicative.
Tell your sister to read this:
http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people
Or type in 'policies for people' in Google search. It will be the 2nd listing...........
You do know however that UKIP won't win? I bet you aren't around here on May 08th. Like the IndyRef 'Yes' brigands you'll evaporate.
Linking to a graphic from this unpleasant sneering elitist piece is scraping the bottom of the barrel (Matthew Parris no doubt inspired it).
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21625880-moderate-voters-not-ukipers-will-decide-next-years-general-election-we-are-89
As for the graph above it comes from these tables
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-sep-2014-party-image-charts.pdf
And the data
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-sep-2014-party-image-tables.pdf
Mori's comment on that poll which pre-dates the party conferences
All the parties have a patchwork of positives and problems that need addressing, and going into conference season it doesn’t seem as if any of them hold the trump card with voters. Labour is the most liked party, but Ed Miliband still hasn’t convinced the public on his Prime Ministerial qualities – where David Cameron has the edge, but is hampered by being seen as out of touch and by a more disliked party. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats remain the least trusted, and UKIP are the most distinctive – but also the most extreme.”
As for the tactical voting narrative which it seems some are desperate to promote once again there may be some evidence of it in by-elections but likely when the Tories are also involved they will also suffer tactical voting against them and therefore it will cancel itself out.
As for the general election, the idea that Labour and Tory voters are going to vote against UKIP and in doing so help their primary opponent for Downing Street to win in that constituency election is risible and frankly I doubt there will enough Libdems left outside their supposed fortresses for them to make any real difference.
As for the detail
Farage's likeability in this old poll was -28. His satisfaction rating in this months political monitor was -4
Cameron's likeability in the old poll was -1. His satisfaction rating in this month's political monitor is -17
Being liked is not necessarily the most important consideration when choosing the best politician.
Lastly if all those who like UKIP let alone Farage vote for them, the Tories and Labour have got a major problem.
Congratulations to Rob Woodall in being the first person to climb all of Marilyn's Peaks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-29627193
It's quite an achievement. I haven't even done all of the county tops yet ...
In our constituency like 120 others, we are a safe Tory seat (Shropshire North), threatened by fracking. UKIP is in favour, like the MP - O. Paterson. The only way to oppose is to vote Green and encourage the paedophiles in the EU, or back an independent candidate.
In the US they know what happens when gas drilling starts. E.G.
Elizabeth Mobaldi, Rifle CO - Deceased Nov 14, 2010
Picture
Gas Facility: Gas wells
Exposure: water
Symptoms: headaches, burning eyes and skin, rashes, blisters, tumors of pituitary gland, pain
Testimony: "I was dying and I thought it was me hout," Chris Mobaldi says in a halting, strangely accented voice. Steve Mobaldi jumps in to translate for his wife: "She was imagining that the house was killing her."Chris Mobaldi is 59, but looks at least 70. In the last decade, she has had two tumors removed from her pituitary gland and endured excruciating pain. The once lively blonde is rail-thin and frail and holds her hands out for balance when she walks.The Mobaldis believe she suffers from foreign accent syndrome, a rare malady that can result from a stroke or brain injury, though she hasn't been officially diagnosed with it. The Mobaldis believe her neurological system was damaged by drinking water that may have been contaminated by drilling fluids from wells around their former home about 60 miles to the east in Rifle.
Elizabeth “Chris” Mobaldi, 63, died on Nov. 14, at 4:40 a.m., after a lengthy battle with a rare and persistent tumor of the pituitary gland.
Citation: http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20061203/NEWS/112030061
Con VI:
Lab: 18
UKIP: 9
Lab VI:
Con: 35
UKIP: 9
Con VI:
Lab: 18
UKIP: 65
Lab VI:
Con: 35
UKIP: 84
I give you Lord Ashcroft latest constituency polls (the willingness to rule out to vote for party x per seat) to counter the old national polls.
It all depends on the candidate and the nature of the seat, since the UKIP surge started in 2012 there has been evidence of an anti-UKIP vote only in one single by-election and never before or since (I said from the moment that Helmer was selected as the candidate there, that UKIP did the worst decision for 10 years).
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/09/27/comres-poll-farage-as-popular-as-cameron/
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf
Given that UKIP seems to be the preferred choice for 2010 Con/Lab swing voters, and routinely came 2nd in 2013, 2014 Westminster by-elections we can see that they do not have a problem with attracting positive votes.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100288894/game-of-losers-the-numbers-show-david-cameron-and-ed-miliband-face-election-stalemate/
There is no evidence of any anti-UKIP tactical voting. Anecdotes from their political opponents are worthless.
With Bloom gone and Helmer caught in action, Farage must be running out of friends.
This parliament or this year, the trend shows UKIP's support increasing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Miliband: -33
Labour: +5
Cameron: -1
Conservatves: -14
Clegg: -28
Lib Dem: -11
Farage: -27
UKIP: -34
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-sep-2014-party-image-tables.pdf
Increasingly, UKIP are the main contenders to Labour in their northern strongholds, and to the Conservatives in the south (broadly speaking). Since the GE is likely to be very close, the logical tactical ploy is for Labour to vote UKIP in Tory-held seats where UKIP are the main challengers and vice-versa for Tories to vote UKIP in the Labour-held seats.
For the two main parties to vote for their counterpart at the GE to keep UKIP out would be suicidal.
Mr Farage +39/-43 (-4)
Mr Cameron +38/-55 (-17)
Mr Miliband +25/-59 (-34)
Mr Clegg +25/-62 (-37)
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3459/Voting-UKIP-no-longer-seen-as-a-wasted-vote-as-the-party-reaches-its-highest-ever-vote-share.aspx
It would make an interesting guest article. How many of them are ex-Tories like Carswell, Reckless and I think the PPC for Great Grimsby? Are there any with a Labour background, like our very own isam [not that isam was ever a Labour member, IIRC, but he used to vote that way]?
Perhaps Jack Cade's irony is too subtle for me. It happens...
The LibDems must be praying for such an eventuality, as they will become the natural home for those voters, considering their participation in the coalition government.
All voters
Waste 41%
Not waste 48%
UKIP supporters
Waste 4%
Not Waste 94%
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-oct-2014-tables.pdf
It's all bollocks, really, and the contortions that the campaigns will have to go through at the net election indicate why it is so vital to change the voting system to one that does not so heavily reward tactical/dishonest/negative voting. With a system like STV you simply vote for what you want.
During this parliament the LDs do not have a record of attracting swing voters from other parties. LD support has declined year-on-year throughout the parliament.
(That said, I don't see how a pre-election pact could work. The parities cannot dictate their supporters voting behaviour.)
His trial is scheduled for January!
But second place is interesting, CON or UKIP ?
Net agree UKIP vote wasted:
Con: +12
Lab: +17
Boston and Skegness - ? no PPC selected.
Thurrock - Tim Aker, only elected for UKIP.
Thanet South - Mr Farage, only elected for UKIP.
Clacton - Mr Carswell, ex Tory.
Great Grimsby - Victoria Ayling, ex Tory.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/14/ukip-seats-general-election-2015
http://www.thelocal.fr/20141015/jihadists-found-training-in-a-park-in-france
Whereas they would probably lose more voters from the centre, who are actively repelled by UKIP. And who can blame them?
If we assume that there is a Labour government after GE 2015, led by Ed Miliband, then it is probable that Labour will move slightly further to the left. It's also very possible that the Lib Dems, once Clegg resigns or is defenestrated, will also move to the left to differentiate themselves from the coalition.
If this transpires, the centre ground will be more open. That is where parties need to be, and not at the ground that UKIP currently holds.
Having said all that, UKIP shows the need for all parties to understand and cater for all segments of society. That has to be the lesson for, and of, GE2015.
It doesn't matter what people who intend to vote for other parties think, other than to demonstrate the potential for more UKIP converts.
http://www.greatyarmouthmercury.co.uk/news/matthew_smith_steps_down_as_ukip_s_prospective_parliamentary_candidate_for_great_yarmouth_1_3700305
This is 'is UKIP a wasted vote at the GE'.
So if Con/Lab voters think UKIP is a wasted vote, they will not consider voting for UKIP.
If Con/Lab voters think UKIP is not a wasted vote, they will consider voting for UKIP.
The net of those two numbers is not relevant. Only the positive response. Those are the only potential UKIP supporters from those parties.
If we see tactial anti ukip voting by Tories in order to gift labour the seat and vice versa next May, the world will truly have gone mad... It is such a ridiculous proposition I can scarcely believe anyone would suggest it
UKIP are rewriting the rules.
I'd rather go down swinging, than indulge in a pre-election gang bang as a tactic. Coalitions are acceptable if that's what the voters serve up, they shouldn't be the public starting point.
Those Tory and labour figures are not bad at all for Ukip. In fact they're extremely encouraging
I am surprised that around 35% of labour and Tory voters think Ukip isn't a wasted vote, and those votes that will come in very handy in 2010 two way marginals where Ukip have now climbed into 1st or 2nd place
Conservatives are selecting their candidate by open caucus, 25th October.
http://www.bostonskegnessconservatives.org.uk/events/open-primary
Conservatives would be silly to mess up any chance of a UKIP /Con agreement before the election if it was in the right circumstances .Alas I think time is running out though
Very true, in fact the present coalition has not been best for what was required for the UK in 2010 and the next five years. A lot that should have been done has not been done because it would not get past the coalition.
In fact Clegg and Cable seemed to delight at times in claiming that they had prevented a certain needed policy from being enacted.
They are a protest party (to some poll respondents) and some of those people tend to drift away when the crunch comes.
They will be squeezed by the election campaign, remember that the broadcast and print media have the power to portray a party in the way they like by the selection of interviewees they use on a regular basis. If they focus on Roger Helmer for example, extensive coverage will not act as an attraction to many voters. The media are capable of identifying the candidates that suit the narrative they have and 'bigging them up' to create an image that is tilted in a particular direction. The ego of a budding politician is far to great for them to see that they are been used for negative effects.
The inexperience in general elections may reduce turnout, from GOTV to lack of data to contact the potential UKIP voters efficiently.
Some suggest anti UKIP tactical voting, but they may gain some from anti Tory voting.
The number of novice candidates will open the doors to more 'foot in mouth' moments which isn't helpful to the overall picture.
A number of the UKIP respondents in the Polls are from non 2010 voters, only a percentage of these are likely to turn out on the day.
The really interesting question is what will happen to UKIP beyond 2015, if there is a single party government. Will the LibDems want or be able to occupy the NOTA ground that they have skilfully played for 20 years, or will UKIP keep them out of that position? With single party government there is a main opposition, and then a fight for the other votes of principle and protest between UKIP, LibDem and Green. There are not enough votes for them all to do well. The one(s) that lag in the polls will suffer.
In a FPTP system, parties are 'broad churches' with an internal coalition, under the party banner.
Prior to the Coalition, a large chunk of LD votes were *wasted* but used to prevent Something Worse.
If Kippers have too much of a Something Worse brand problem [and the polling here seems to suggest it], then they'll miss out of a load of potential serial voters. It appears that this is currently being filled by previous DNVers. That may be a very useful gambit for the Kippers to mine further since the Big Three haven't had much effect in this segment, so aren't even competing for them.
It's likely that these DNVers are more left-wing/DE IIRC - pick your label of choice.
So much for "game changer"
And like the NATS your modus operandi is to play the player, not the ball......
They could even justify it as a straight vote for a referendum or not
(It isn't psywalled)
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/article2481811.ece#tab-4
People's views on what is "centrist" are subjective. But objectively, it depends on how you define it. If you define it as the views of the majority, then that view also needs defining.
Unlimited immigration is definitely not centrist. A total ban on immigration is definitely not centrist. A reduction from current levels probably is.
Let's leave Europe now probably isn't; let's stay in at all costs probably isn't; let's negotiate and see if we can win concessions, and then decide probably is - that's why Cameron is suggesting it
Whether a party is "centrist" depends an the amalgam of all their policies.
It's easier to be subjective.
I'm centrist, you're not, and he's an extremist.
However, since his trial is scheduled for early January they may be hoping he’ll be found not guilty. UKIP leader of the Co Council says he’s been “suspended” as a UKIP Councillor etc. Still seems active as one though!
Probably only your misquoting if Farage last Friday comes close!
What is it about you and Fridays?!
I haven't given one thought to the itn news index poll !!! For this month or any other this year haha up your game
In Scotland
Net satisfied:
Posh boy fop out of touch Tory Cameron: -27
Man of the (nice) people (who can afford Dartmouth Park) Miliband: -43
Well that's my last 2p of starry-eyed political capital spent. I will be having a baby on toast for breakfast.
Otherwise you wouldn't be making ludicrous claims about "game changers"!
In recent council elections in my borough, UKIP put only one candidate up in each ward. Huge numbers of ballots had one vote for UKIP and two for the Tories. The voters were scared of spoiling their ballot. Obvious to PBers, perhaps, but not to the electorate.
Perhaps the importance of politics to the general population is exaggerated on this site.
For those who haven't seen the news on the two Tory hopefuls:
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/tory-hopefuls-vie-to-contest-25350/
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100289501/david-camerons-gamechanging-promise-on-european-immigration-will-fail-to-kill-ukip-heres-why/?WT.mc_id=e_3618144&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_10_17&utm_campaign=3618144
This is despite every respected political journalist saying it is, Ukip hitting record highs in almost every poll
And your justification is that you don't reckon it will be in the itn news index poll at the end of the month?
Can you confirm that is what you really think
The debate regarding Lord Freud's (related?) comments is over. As ever Briskin and co need some time, in this case 3 days, to analyse.
What many people may or may not understand - and who may or be not be reading this, is that there are many disabled people who work for less than 2 GBP per hour. This is because they "work" (unpaid) in the voluntary sector (related to the third sector, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_sector , see also NGO's such as Greenpeace, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenpeace )
Hague (MP, Con) has stated that since the beginning of the coalition (Con/LD) parliament there are now more than 70,000 (figure from memory )disabled people in work.
And that's saying something. Therefore, if it comes to play in my constituency, my vote will be an anti-UKIP vote. This was not the case a year (or possibly even six months) ago.
The ITN news index poll is a useful antidote to that.
Britain being forced out of the ERM was a "game changer".
I doubt Carsell holding his seat is remotely in the same league.
I presume you live in Scotland, where they have PR for local elections.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/game-of-thrones/11167549/Michael-Gove-praises-misshapen-Game-of-Thrones-dwarf-Tyrion-Lannister-in-bizarre-online-video.html?WT.mc_id=e_3618144&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_10_17&utm_campaign=3618144