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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComR

SystemSystem Posts: 12,219
edited March 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

With the Times deciding to get rid of its monthly Populus poll there are now only regular three telephone surveys each month – ICM for the Guardian, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard and this one – ComRes for the Independent.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide.

    We haven't seen negative narrowing for a while
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    But we must enjoy these phones, now the Times has ditched Populus.

    There's only three of them left.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/Independent: 35% of Lab voters don't trust 2 Eds to make right decisions about econ http://ht.ly/jp0j7
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Scott_P said:

    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/Independent: 35% of Lab voters don't trust 2 Eds to make right decisions about econ http://ht.ly/jp0j7

    When you look at the number one issue in the country as per Mori's Issues Index, that's going to be problematic for Labour if that continues
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,165
    edited March 2013
    ComRes/The Sunil:

    Governing Parties: 40%
    Labour: 38%
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    I feel tim's pain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    "Some 29% of people trust Dave and Osbo to make the right decisions about the economy, while 58% do not – a net rating of minus 29 points. Meanwhile, only 22% trust the TwoEds to make the right economic decisions, while 62% do not – a net rating of minus 40 , no better than the party’s score in previous ComRes polls in January and October last year."

    Ouch, ouch, ouch.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IsabelOakeshott: Brilliant, brilliant Boris documentary. Biggest revelation was extent to which father wants him to run for PM and return to Commons pre 2015

    @IsabelOakeshott: When I heard Stanley Johnson say Boris must return to Commons in time for 2015 election, I just thought, 'that's it then.' He will.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    edited March 2013
    After the Tories "successful" budget that has to be a disappointment. But is shows as far as the economy is concerned the party of protest is the winner and Labour still has work to do.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Is cold weather the dog that hasn't barked? People will be facing hefty heating bills soon.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    Labour have lost it.

    In the mid term of an austerity government Labour are losing more votes to an insurgent Beppe Grillo type party than the party leading the government.

    This may be a big joke but the laugh is on Miliband and his party not Dave.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Looks like ComRes is falling into line with other pollsters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    @jonathan

    Success = Performance minus anticipation.

    The anticipation/fear was Osborne would feck it up again, that he hasn't so far, is considered a success.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Crisis? What crisis?

    @BBCBreaking: Banks in Cyprus will not open on Tuesday as planned. Closed until at least Wednesday, news agencies report
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,165
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: Brilliant, brilliant Boris documentary. Biggest revelation was extent to which father wants him to run for PM and return to Commons pre 2015

    @IsabelOakeshott: When I heard Stanley Johnson say Boris must return to Commons in time for 2015 election, I just thought, 'that's it then.' He will.

    "I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis." - Boris, 2003.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Paywall

    In Sweden, the centre-left Social Democrats have lost two elections in a row, having concentrated on criticising the centre-right Government’s spending cuts and welfare reform.

    They have urged Labour in this country not to make the same mistake. According to one senior figure, even if criticism of individual policies is justified, taken overall they reinforce the perception that the centre-Left cares only about benefit claimants and just throws money at problems.

    “It’s like in relationships — what people hear matters as much as what you say,” a shadow minister says.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "Ukip’s 14% is the highest ever for a phone survey"

    *chortle*

    The tea party tories really need to keep talking about immigration yet more.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Nothing to see here

    @Reuters: Corrected: Cyprus central bank says all banks to remain closed until Thursday March 28, reversing earlier decision for Tuesday opening
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Wonderful pictures on the BBC News of Angelina Jolie stroking Hague's ego.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Hmm, praps i was wrong and dog-whistling on its own can work if it reminds Labour voters what New Labour did more than the lack of discernable difference in their area makes them annoyed with the Cameroons: suicide dog-whistling.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Looks from Brogan's article that the Tories are planning a late New Labour "survive and regroup" strategy for 2015.

    Startling how much Cameron and Osborne's Tories have copied Brown, Blair, Campbell, Mandelson and co. From their shamless courting of the media, to cynical triangulation attempts, two-faced ruthlesness etc.

    Only 20 years too late. And they're not very good at it.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    And yet still Cameron decides his best bet is to get "tough"

    What a disaster for the Tories that man is.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Oh the irony of the prospect that UKIP might actual help rather than hinder the chances of a Conservative majority at the next GE.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    labour down 5 = lol
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    fitalass said:

    Oh the irony of the prospect that UKIP might actual help rather than hinder the chances of a Conservative majority at the next GE.

    Eh?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    LOL Fitalass

    Try again.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    IOS said:

    And yet still Cameron decides his best bet is to get "tough"

    Nothing wrong with that strategy if it was genuine. It's being forced into it from gay huskie hugging and not being believed genuine that's the problem. It can only work if he can get ahead of the game and not look like he's being dragged.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2013
    Ukip marches on, to the drum beats of the Cyprus fiasco on one side, and Cammo stabbing himself and his party in the conservative heartlands, where it counts most.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    carl said:

    Looks from Brogan's article that the Tories are planning a late New Labour "survive and regroup" strategy for 2015.

    An imaginative interpretation, Carl, but not one which can plausibly be derived from a thorough analysis of the subject text.

    I recommend you spend some time working on tabloids before progressing to the broadsheets. Photos are so much easier to interpret than words.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeK said:

    Ukip marches on, to the drum beats of The Cyprus fiasco on one side, and Cammo stabbing himself and his party in the conservative heartlands, where it counts most.


    More great news for ukip on front of express ;-)

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/75224/daily_express_monday_25th_march_2013.html

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    MrJones said:

    IOS said:

    And yet still Cameron decides his best bet is to get "tough"

    He is being told to say it and it won't work. Just like his anti-europe schtick.

    All he will do is make the right more and more demented and hate them even more.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    " It can only work if he can get ahead of the game and not look like he's being dragged."

    Although saying that "only work" might not be true if Labour's -5 is down to suicide dog-whistling.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    fitalass said:

    Oh the irony of the prospect that UKIP might actual help rather than hinder the chances of a Conservative majority at the next GE.

    fitalass said:

    Oh the irony of the prospect that UKIP might actual help rather than hinder the chances of a Conservative majority at the ??next GE.

    A truly outlandish analysis from Scotland's high priestess of the bizarre.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    IOS said:

    MrJones said:

    IOS said:

    And yet still Cameron decides his best bet is to get "tough"

    He is being told to say it and it won't work. Just like his anti-europe schtick.

    All he will do is make the right more and more demented and hate them even more.
    depends what that Labour -5 is about.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s. Dire. Ozzy out.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Bad News for Nats on Telegraph front page.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Bobajob

    Another poll showing Ozzy and Cam leading Ed and Ed. Balls out?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Mark Warner supports gay marriage.

    http://swampland.time.com/2013/03/25/senator-mark-warner-endorses-gay-marriage-whos-next/?iid=sl-main-lead

    You don't support gay marriage if you're only ever planning to run in Virginia...
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Scott_P said:

    @Bobajob

    Another poll showing Ozzy and Cam leading Ed and Ed. Balls out?

    They are leading them on the economy, but that is surely factored into voting intention. As all parties are various shades of shite on the economy, I'm far from convinced it's much of a straw to clutch.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited March 2013
    @MrJones,Could it be true,that ed's response to osborne in the budget did put people off - labour down 5.

    Alot on here said it was dire,maybe you were right.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This is useful:

    In conversations last week with more than a half dozen Clinton associates -- people who know her very well politically or personally -- there was a consensus: She’s more likely to run than not. The presidential bug hasn’t left her and she passionately wants to see a woman president.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-24/clinton-is-strongest-ever-frontrunner-if-she-runs-.html
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Tykejohnno said:

    @MrJones,Could it be true,that ed's response to osborne in the budget did put people off.

    Alot on here said it was dire,maybe you were right.

    didn't watch it so dunno.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    IIRC, Ed Miliband was put in charge of the last Labour manifesto in the run up to the 2010 GE and it didn't go to schedule. This resulted in a panicked intervention from Harman because he was so ill prepared for the looming launch date, there is a danger now that the same mistakes are being made again. And that is far more dangerous for a party in Opposition while the Government are getting on with the job day to day in the public eye.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    'I understand an American based company is to take over Britain's helicopter search and rescue operations.''An announcement is expected from the government before the stock market opens tomorrow morning, I'm told.' chrismason
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Is there any info on the exact nature of any capital controls (amount of cash you can take out of the country etc) being imposed on Cyprus?
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Bobajob said:

    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s. Dire. Ozzy out.

    Quote so. To have a chance of winning, the Tories need to add at least 10 points (that's millions of voters) to their current support.

    And that's assuming Labour poll the same as 2010 under Brown!

    The Tory share is the one to watch, and UKIP are killing them.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    According to one senior figure, even if criticism of individual policies is justified, taken overall they reinforce the perception that the centre-Left cares only about benefit claimants and just throws money at problems.

    Precisely right. Since 2008, when it became clear as crystal that tax revenues had collapsed and thus spending had to be cut substantially, Labour have repeatedly made this blunder. When did we last hear them say 'Yes, the government are quite right, there are big savings to be made here', let alone propose new savings the government hasn't thought of?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike smithson,can we have a thread on why labour are going backwards in the polls ;-)
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    fitalass said:

    IIRC, Ed Miliband was put in charge of the last Labour manifesto in the run up to the 2010 GE and it didn't go to schedule. This resulted in a panicked intervention from Harman because he was so ill prepared for the looming launch date, there is a danger now that the same mistakes are being made again. And that is far more dangerous for a party in Opposition while the Government are getting on with the job day to day in the public eye.

    Pardon?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    @richardNabavi

    Shame the Tories are not trusted to run the country on their own.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    'I understand an American based company is to take over Britain's helicopter search and rescue operations.''An announcement is expected from the government before the stock market opens tomorrow morning, I'm told.' chrismason

    The Bristow Group of Texas, Carola. Currently run most offshore oil rig services in the North Sea.

    Details here: http://www.bristowgroup.com/

    The decision to sell was made on health and safety grounds. The risk of some bint from Bootle throwing herself into the Irish Sea in the hope of being rescued by a charming Prince was too much for HSE to contemplate.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    carl said:

    Bobajob said:

    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s. Dire. Ozzy out.

    Quote so. To have a chance of winning, the Tories need to add at least 10 points (that's millions of voters) to their current support.

    And that's assuming Labour poll the same as 2010 under Brown!

    The Tory share is the one to watch, and UKIP are killing them.

    carl said:

    Bobajob said:

    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s. Dire. Ozzy out.

    Quote so. To have a chance of winning, the Tories need to add at least 10 points (that's millions of voters) to their current support.

    And that's assuming Labour poll the same as 2010 under Brown!

    The Tory share is the one to watch, and UKIP are killing them.

    True. Some will dismiss it as midterm blues, and some of it is, but when does midterm stop being midterm? Sobering to think that, by the time people take their summer holidays in August, there will only be just over a year and a half until the election.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    carl said:

    Bobajob said:

    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s. Dire. Ozzy out.

    Quote so. To have a chance of winning, the Tories need to add at least 10 points (that's millions of voters) to their current support.

    And that's assuming Labour poll the same as 2010 under Brown!

    The Tory share is the one to watch, and UKIP are killing them.

    With the anti politics mood increasing, the Labour problem with men increasing, the post Scottish referendum (no matter what result) problem for Labour and relying on women who have a traditional leaning to the Tory party. Add on to this the uncertainty of the Labour leaders capabilities in TV debates, toxic Balls and fear of Labour in the economy and it is easy to see Labour polling close to 2010 levels, when push comes to shove. They should still get enough to win in some convoluted form.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Socrates said:

    This is useful:

    In conversations last week with more than a half dozen Clinton associates -- people who know her very well politically or personally -- there was a consensus: She’s more likely to run than not. The presidential bug hasn’t left her and she passionately wants to see a woman president.

    Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Wm Hill all offer 7/2 on the next president being female. A good bet IMO, since it's a slam dunk if she does stand and you've still got a chance if she doesn't (I'm on at slightly longer odds from a few months ago).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,003
    Tim Montgomerie reveals he was never a fan of Cameron, surprise, surprise
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/03/camerons-lost-decade.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Bobajob said:

    Another poll showing the Tories in the 20s. Dire. Ozzy out.

    Pfft Don't want Osborne to go anywhere, he forms part of my biggest bet 'Balls next Chancellor' bet ! Selfish betting reasons aside, we'd probably be better off without either Balls or Osborne ;)

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Bobajob said:

    Sobering to think that, by the time people take their summer holidays in August, there will only be just over a year and a half until the election.

    Yes, look at how German voters' minds have become focused on the real choice in a similar timeframe.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RichardNabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    According to one senior figure, even if criticism of individual policies is justified, taken overall they reinforce the perception that the centre-Left cares only about benefit claimants and just throws money at problems.

    Precisely right. Since 2008, when it became clear as crystal that tax revenues had collapsed and thus spending had to be cut substantially, Labour have repeatedly made this blunder. When did we last hear them say 'Yes, the government are quite right, there are big savings to be made here', let alone propose new savings the government hasn't thought of?
    In fairness, Labour have said very little positive at all, choosing instead to simply oppose most govt. measures. That's how it should be at this stage in the cycle. Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet. A wise strategy.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    Interesting changes tonight with the UKPollingReport polling average.

    Labour have fallen from 40% to 39% for the first time in ages, and the Tories have dropped from 30% to 29%. It takes a lot of polls for the average to change so this is quite significant IMO:

    http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,483
    @RichardN

    Careful Richard.

    I read the whole of that article. It was much more balanced than Socrates' extract might suggest.

    If she runs, she will probably win but her age and health may dissuade her. The author of the article could draw no definite conclusions.

    The current odds look about right to me.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @tim


    France has lost ONE MILLION jobs because of repressive tax regime as 60,000 of the country's rich now live abroad, report claims

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2298936/France-lost-million-jobs-repressive-tax-regime-report-claims.html

    Does everyone remember when labour and labour pb posters were praising the great man of the left,not a peep now = lol
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Bobajob said:

    Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet.

    Ha ha ha!

    And what, exactly, is this 'clear prospectus' going to be?

    THERE IS NO MONEY. Nothing, Not a penny, The only significant decision (other than whether to cancel Cameron's planned repatriation and referendum) the incoming government has to take is how exactly they can cut further and faster than Osborne has already dared and the LibDems have so far put up with. That is it; there is nothing else.

    Miliband has made a spectacular, completely unnecessary, self-imposed blunder by pretending that there is some kind of alternative, that they can oppose almost every saving with impunity. It might get him into No 10 for one term, but the dishonesty of it will very probably destroy Labour for the next two terms.

    Quite why he is making this blunder is a complete mystery to me. He can win the next election on a vaguely honest platform - in fact, I think he'd have a better chance of winning if he were vaguely honest.

    This is such a mystery that I have a horrible feeling that the explanation might be that he is simply naive, not dishonest. Let's hope I'm wrong.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "The Labour party has failed us. We need a new party of the left"

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/25/labour-party-left
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Bobajob said:



    In fairness, Labour have said very little positive at all, choosing instead to simply oppose most govt. measures. That's how it should be at this stage in the cycle. Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet. A wise strategy.

    No. A dreadful strategy. It may be good tactics, but it is strategically a gross error.

    /pendant

    Seriously, though, not having detailed policies is fine. Reinforcing the position that they oppose every cut will create an impression that it will be difficult to shift in just 6 months



  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I really hope that the Labour party do keep on thinking that its Cameron rather than austerity that is unpopular with women voters right up to the next GE.
  • Robert_EveRobert_Eve Posts: 31
    Vote UKIP.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RichardNabavi said:

    Bobajob said:

    Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet.


    Ha ha ha!

    And what, exactly, is this 'clear prospectus' going to be?

    THERE IS NO MONEY. Nothing, Not a penny, The only significant decision (other than whether to cancel Cameron's planned repatriation and referendum) the incoming government has to take is how exactly they can cut further and faster than Osborne has already dared and the LibDems have so far put up with. That is it; there is nothing else.

    Miliband has made a spectacular, completely unnecessary, self-imposed blunder by pretending that there is some kind of alternative, that they can oppose almost every saving with impunity. It might get him into No 10 for one term, but the dishonesty of it will very probably destroy Labour for the next two terms.

    Quite why he is making this blunder is a complete mystery to me. He can win the next election on a vaguely honest platform - in fact, I think he'd have a better chance of winning if he were vaguely honest.

    This is such a mystery that I have a horrible feeling that the explanation might be that he is simply naive, not dishonest. Let's hope I'm wrong.

    RichardNabavi said:

    Bobajob said:

    Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet.

    Ha ha ha!

    And what, exactly, is this 'clear prospectus' going to be?

    THERE IS NO MONEY. Nothing, Not a penny, The only significant decision (other than whether to cancel Cameron's planned repatriation and referendum) the incoming government has to take is how exactly they can cut further and faster than Osborne has already dared and the LibDems have so far put up with. That is it; there is nothing else.

    Miliband has made a spectacular, completely unnecessary, self-imposed blunder by pretending that there is some kind of alternative, that they can oppose almost every saving with impunity. It might get him into No 10 for one term, but the dishonesty of it will very probably destroy Labour for the next two terms.

    Quite why he is making this blunder is a complete mystery to me. He can win the next election on a vaguely honest platform - in fact, I think he'd have a better chance of winning if he were vaguely honest.

    This is such a mystery that I have a horrible feeling that the explanation might be that he is simply naive, not dishonest. Let's hope I'm wrong.

    He may have plans to generate money through growth, as bizarre a concept as that may seem with Nosedive Ozzy at the helm.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Bobajob said:


    He may have plans to generate money through growth, as bizarre a concept as that may seem with Nosedive Ozzy at the helm.

    Yeah, right. The elusive magic money tree which not a single government anywhere in the world has discovered: how to promote growth when you've already got the most humongous deficit in the Western world.

    If you believe that the two Eds can find that money tree, you'll believe anything, but probably not for more than one election.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Cameroons could knock ten points off that Labour total and flip the female deficit with a very public inquiry aka show trial of the nomenklatura over the cover-up of the grooming starting with the leaked documents from Rotherham.

    Just saying.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited March 2013
    Tomorrow's Sun Front page has a very interesting NHS story.

    You should check it out

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/316325106257379330/photo/1
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    tim said:

    @fitalass

    There is no austerity, spending is up, spending on benefits is up.

    Cameron is -34 with women, toxic, they can't stand him.

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Bobajob

    ' Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet.'

    They will certainly need to do that as they have opposed everything the Coalition has done whether it be welfare cuts,the economy,health,education, student fees,taxation,public sector pay the EU & immigration.

    There are millions of voters now looking forward.to having their benefits restored,not to mention students having their fees reduced and Labour will need to spell out how high the resulting tax increases will be to fund them,the 'we don't know how big the mess will be' line will simply not be believed and just laughed at.

    The longer Labour delay the bigger the hole they are digging for themselves. .
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013
    RichardNabavi said:


    Ha ha ha!

    And what, exactly, is this 'clear prospectus' going to be?


    The same as Cammie and Osbrowne's was for 2010. Vague platitudes and not much detail at all. So unless you quickly find someone more credible than the 'near perfect' Osbrowne to hammer labour on their past record then you can dog whistle to UKIP voters from now until 2015 and see just how much good that does you. (hint - it's not exactly working too well right now, is it?)
    RichardNabavi said:


    THERE IS NO MONEY. Nothing, Not a penny

    Enough for a tax cut for the richest because "we're all in this together".
    Gifting little Ed and labour their current lead in that omnishambles budget was an even more 'brilliant' master strategy than trying to outflank the kippers.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sigh - Rather than attacking the PM, UKIP, or insulting fellow PBers, perhaps it is time for PBs Red team to actually address the issue of why they have just dropped 5 points in a national poll. – And no, it is not down to ‘margin of error’…!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 30%, LAB 41%, LD 13%, UKIP 11%. Libs at highest in 4 months. Are they back on the up?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013
    The more politicians try to tell people that the problems they have with immigration their day to day lives aren't backed up by government statistics, the more the working man in the street is going to turn to UKIP... Just happened again on Newsnight. When will they learn?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SimonStClare said:

    perhaps it is time for PBs Red team to actually address the issue of why they have just dropped 5 points in a national poll. – And no, it is not down to ‘margin of error’…!

    Drop of 5 points to one is a lead of 10 points to another!

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tomorrow's Sun Front page has a very interesting NHS story.

    You should check it out

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/316325106257379330/photo/1

    It's a bit shallow i know but my first thought was money well spent.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Robert_Eve said:

    Vote UKIP.

    Bless!

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    @Mick_Pork

    Did you see the ken clarke interview when he said English money a couple of times and had to be corrected to say British money = lol

    That must have gone down well up there and for the snp ;-)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    MrJones said:


    It's a bit shallow i know but my first thought was money well spent.

    Trouble is, there's the moral hazard. Those who pay the bill don't get to enjoy the benefit.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    There is no austerity, spending is up, spending on benefits is up.

    Lies, lies, lies tim.

    Would you like to bet on whether central government current expenditure (as measured by the ONS) is higher in real terms in the fiscal year 2012-3 than 2011-12?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Tykejohnno said:

    @Mick_Pork

    Did you see the ken clarke interview when he said English money a couple of times and had to be corrected to say British money = lol

    That must have gone down well up there and for the snp ;-)

    I'm not quite sure how the No campaign think they are going to keep the tories from repeatedly shooting No in the face during the referendum campaign, since it will be in the run up to the next election, but it's going to be amusing watching them try. ;)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,003
    Somebody finds some use for the Budget
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/03/camerons-lost-decade.html
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    RichardNabavi said:

    MrJones said:


    It's a bit shallow i know but my first thought was money well spent.



    Trouble is, there's the moral hazard. Those who pay the bill don't get to enjoy the benefit.
    What are you talking about Richard? They are on the front page of a national newspaper!

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Mick_Pork said:

    RichardNabavi said:


    Ha ha ha!

    And what, exactly, is this 'clear prospectus' going to be?


    The same as Cammie and Osbrowne's was for 2010. Vague platitudes and not much detail at all. So unless you quickly find someone more credible than the 'near perfect' Osbrowne to hammer labour on their past record then you can dog whistle to UKIP voters from now until 2015 and see just how much good that does you. (hint - it's not exactly working too well right now, is it?)
    RichardNabavi said:


    THERE IS NO MONEY. Nothing, Not a penny

    Enough for a tax cut for the richest because "we're all in this together".
    Gifting little Ed and labour their current lead in that omnishambles budget was an even more 'brilliant' master strategy than trying to outflank the kippers.

    By all accounts lowering the ludicrous 50% rate will raise the tax take. Isn't that the most important thing, or would you rather ignore that and prefer to punish the people doing well.

    How is Mr. Hollande's tax hike going?



  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    Lies, lies, lies tim.

    Would you like to bet on whether central government current expenditure (as measured by the ONS) is higher in real terms in the fiscal year 2012-3 than 2011-12?

    Doesnt that rely at least in part on the dubious accounting Osborne engaged in to massage the figures? Accounting which, in itself, probably misallocated resources. Yes, wasting money just to pretend a fiscal target has been met. How very Brownite!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited March 2013
    RichardNabavi said:

    Bobajob said:

    Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet.

    Quite why he is making this blunder is a complete mystery to me. He can win the next election on a vaguely honest platform - in fact, I think he'd have a better chance of winning if he were vaguely honest.

    This is such a mystery that I have a horrible feeling that the explanation might be that he is simply naive, not dishonest. Let's hope I'm wrong.

    I think with Ed Miliband it will be a bit of both, naivety caused by the current midterm polling while another Government makes unpopular decisions. And a bit of dishonesty because MIliband hopes if he can avoid making some difficult policy decisions before the next GE, just like the previous Labour Government did before 2010. Also, Miliband is trying to avoid a politically damaging confrontation within the Labour party and with the Unions for as long as possible. Labour's problems in the run up to the last GE were down to the fact that the banking crisis occurred on their watch, the damage was done and this Government is trying to fix it.

    I think its now looking less likely that Labour will win the next GE, there is nothing in the cupboard that they can produce now that they didn't throw at the problem last time between 2008-2010. And as for Ed Miliband the great details man, I think we forget just what a pickle he got himself into when left in charge of the Labour manifesto last time. It doesn't inspire confidence in the fact that he really understands the need for some urgency now on getting that policy portfolio down in a coherent form to be picked over and debated even internally. The economic crisis unfolded under Labour's watch, the Conservatives responded to that in Opposition. But with five years notice of their legacy, the Labour party really don't have this luxury, yet they seem to think that they do. There is no money, they spent it all last time around and we will still be paying off their debts come the next 2010.

    I think that Lynton Crosby will be delighted if the Labour party decide to keep their 'clear' prospectus hidden for another year or more as it gives their opponents plenty of time to get their narrative embedded. As Crosby pointed out to the Conservatives after the last 2005 GE, you cannot fatten the pig on market day.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    Bobajob said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    MrJones said:


    It's a bit shallow i know but my first thought was money well spent.



    Trouble is, there's the moral hazard. Those who pay the bill don't get to enjoy the benefit.
    What are you talking about Richard? They are on the front page of a national newspaper!

    I suspect a few people are going to splash out* on a copy of tomorrow's Sun.

    *My transformation into Finbarr Saunders is complete.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @nigel4england

    How did that 'master strategy' of cutting the taxes for the richest go down with the voters?

    Let's have a look shall we?

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/GB_Polling_May_2010_to_Jan_2013.jpg

    Triumph for the fops!

    LOL

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    nigel4england said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    RichardNabavi said:


    Ha ha ha!

    And what, exactly, is this 'clear prospectus' going to be?


    The same as Cammie and Osbrowne's was for 2010. Vague platitudes and not much detail at all. So unless you quickly find someone more credible than the 'near perfect' Osbrowne to hammer labour on their past record then you can dog whistle to UKIP voters from now until 2015 and see just how much good that does you. (hint - it's not exactly working too well right now, is it?)
    RichardNabavi said:


    THERE IS NO MONEY. Nothing, Not a penny

    Enough for a tax cut for the richest because "we're all in this together".
    Gifting little Ed and labour their current lead in that omnishambles budget was an even more 'brilliant' master strategy than trying to outflank the kippers.

    By all accounts lowering the ludicrous 50% rate will raise the tax take. Isn't that the most important thing, or would you rather ignore that and prefer to punish the people doing well.

    How is Mr. Hollande's tax hike going?



    It's perfectly possible to make an economic case for tax cuts boosting the total tax take, regrettably the Treasury don't agree in this case, as their own forecast has the move reducing the total tax take.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984
    edited March 2013
    The more I think about the Ashes, it will be a case of the resistible force meets a movable object
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    When there is a huge negative satisfaction rating with the main choices then people will vote for someone, ALMOST anyone, who appears to be a little more trustworthy even if almost all pollies are mistrusted per se.

    With so little between LibDem, Labour and Tories policy wise many southern English people are saying they will now protest as their vote does not matter as whoever of the big 2 wins it will be crap for them personally.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    fitalass said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    Bobajob said:

    Labour will deliver a clear prospectus, but not for another 12-16 months yet.

    Quite why he is making this blunder is a complete mystery to me. He can win the next election on a vaguely honest platform - in fact, I think he'd have a better chance of winning if he were vaguely honest.

    This is such a mystery that I have a horrible feeling that the explanation might be that he is simply naive, not dishonest. Let's hope I'm wrong.

    I think with Ed Miliband it will be a bit of both, naivety caused by the current midterm polls while another Government makes unpopular decisions while his party isn't anywhere near the levers of power. And a bit of dishonesty because MIliband hopes if he can avoid making some difficult policy decisions before the next GE, just like the previous Labour Government did before 2010. Also, Miliband is trying to avoid a politically damaging confrontation within the Labour party and with the Unions for as long as possible. Labour's problems in the run up to the last GE were down to the fact that the banking crisis occurred on their watch, the damage was done and this Government is trying to fix it.

    I think its now looking less likely that Labour will win the next GE, there is nothing in the cupboard that they can produce now that they didn't throw at the problem last time between 2008-2010. And as for Ed Miliband the great details man, I think we forget just what a pickle he got himself into when left in charge of the Labour manifesto last time. It doesn't inspire confidence in the fact that he really understands the need for some urgency now on getting that policy portfolio down in a coherent form to be picked over and debated even internally. The economic crisis unfolded under Labour's watch, the Conservatives responded to that in Opposition. But with five years notice of their legacy, the Labour party really don't have this luxury, yet they seem to think that they do.

    I think that Lynton Crosby will be delighted if the Labour party decide to keep their 'clear' prospectus hidden for another year or more as it gives their opponents plenty of time to get their narrative embedded. As Crosby pointed out to the Conservatives after the last 2005 GE, you cannot fatten the pig on market day.

    Would this be the very same narrative that has pushed the Tories into the 20s with a number of pollsters?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    RichardNabavi said:

    MrJones said:


    It's a bit shallow i know but my first thought was money well spent.

    Trouble is, there's the moral hazard. Those who pay the bill don't get to enjoy the benefit.
    Well there's the thing. I find artificial boobs a bit off-putting in reality but nice to look at from a distance so from my point of view a model getting them is all win.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi.

    George has just announced plans to leverage £130 Billion in sub prime mortgage lending into the economy, thats one hell of a tree he found.

    It is not "sub-prime" mortgage lending, tim.

    It does not extend public sector borrowing.

    Eventually, when SNA and ESA publish national accounting principles for government guarantees, and the ONS adopt the new principles, then Osborne's guarantees will appear as an insurance expense in the National Accounts. There is very little chance of the new accounting methods being introduced before 2015.

    Clever boy our George.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Porky,

    The 5% cut in the top rate will kick in very soon, but Labour are going down in the polls.

    Coincidence? Probably, but the top rate of tax is lower than all but 35 days of the 4,000 Labour were in power, and the threshold will rise to £10,000 next year. Isn't that a good idea?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    MrJones said:


    Well there's the thing. I find artificial boobs a bit off-putting in reality but nice to look at from a distance so from my point of view a model getting them is all win.

    True, they're not ideal for a hands-on experience. Or so I'm given to understand.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    Clever boy our George.

    Avery, I cannot tell you how disappointed I am to see you applauding this jiggery-pokery. Standards have dropped since you returned north of the river.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    fitalass said:

    I think with Ed Miliband it will be a bit of both, naivety caused by the current midterm polling while another Government makes unpopular decisions.

    That's just proof you have no understanding of the polling. We know precisely where and when the tories polling crashed to it's current level and it wasn't a midterm slump but Osbrowne's omnishambles budget which gifted little Ed and labour their current poll lead.
    fitalass said:

    The economic crisis unfolded under Labour's watch, the Conservatives responded to that in Opposition

    Unless you've been living under a rock then you would know the voters booted labour out for their economic mismanagement. So unless the tories ditch the toxic liability Osbrowne you're going to find it pretty hard to persuade the voters not to do the same for the tories this time around. Never mind persuading the voters that the economy is all labour's fault when you can't even use the chancellor to make the case since the toxic Osbrowne will be busy hiding from the election campaign like he did the last time.

    Since Osbrowne is a liability you would have to rely on the lib dems to hammer labour on the economy and their past record. Good luck with that master strategy. ;D

This discussion has been closed.