Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
Not for me
I backed them at 7/2 but wouldn't touch them under 9/4
I find it hard to make a case for the Tories... All they seem to have is a hatred of Reckless... So what? Arsene Wenger hates Jose Mourinho, but it doesn't make Arsenal a bet to bt Chelsea
I know you think this helps, which is probably what has stopped me going all in on ukip
Ukip won the euros easily, and have a decent opinion poll lead, plus huge momentum. Labour and Tory councillors have also followed Reckless
Still an interesting betting heat, who knows? All about opinions
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR, such as the ludicrous judgements on votes for prisoners.
When I was at uni in 2010-11 we had a debate about the votes for prisoners thing... Of course it was 12 vs 1... One of the arguments put forward was that it was unfair on prisoners that were innocent!!
As if that would be their biggest grievance!!
It's absolutely bat-shit crazy bonkers. It makes absolutely no sense at all. I could understand it if the judgement were to the effect that being able to vote is a fundamental human right, and therefore all prisoners should have the vote; that at least would be an arguable position. But saying that it's a fundamental human right for some prisoners, and not others, based on some completely arbitrary criterion such as the length of sentence, is utterly ludicrous. If it's a human right for a prisoner serving three months, why not for one serving nine months? And if it's OK for parliament to specify a cut-off at 6 months, why is not OK for parliament to specify the cut-off at zero months?
yes it does seem a political judgement and not a legal one in that there is no legal logic to it. Presumably it is done so nobody can say the courts want ,for instance, Jihadi John to have a vote if he is captured
Rising real wages, strongly correlated with the governing party's polling.
Over a decent period maybe. In 6 months and just because the rate of inflation is crashing? I don't think so.
Brent crude is falling, so much so that my £50+ bet at y/e is looking in danger. If Brent crude falls, pump prices drop, the cost of moving food around the country drops and I'm of the mind that everything drops.
Deflation beckons !
Brent Crude - $88.89 at the moment, which at 1.59729 is £55.65. Down $1.32 from yesterday.
How much has the price of oil fallen since the independence referendum? That would have been iScotland's lifeblood. Shows the risks in very stark terms.
How much has the FTSE fallen since the IndyRef?
Clearly an independent Scotland would have kept both high.
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR, such as the ludicrous judgements on votes for prisoners.
When I was at uni in 2010-11 we had a debate about the votes for prisoners thing... Of course it was 12 vs 1... One of the arguments put forward was that it was unfair on prisoners that were innocent!!
As if that would be their biggest grievance!!
Do you not find it worrying that a government could strip the votes from it's political opponents by jailing them on minor charges for the duration of an election.
The government does not arrest people in this country. Its not North Korea. But if you want to give an example of this actually happening I would be interested
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
I find it hard to make a case for the Tories... All they seem to have is a hatred of Reckless... So what? Arsene Wenger hates Jose Mourinho, but it doesn't make Arsenal a bet to bt Chelsea
Not your best analogy if I may say so. 1. Wenger doesn't play Mourinho 2. The crowd don't decide.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
I find it hard to make a case for the Tories... All they seem to have is a hatred of Reckless... So what? Arsene Wenger hates Jose Mourinho, but it doesn't make Arsenal a bet to bt Chelsea
Not your best analogy if I may say so. 1. Wenger doesn't play Mourinho 2. The crowd don't decide.
You may say so!
I just think it's nonsense that the Tories are 'super motivated' here which implies they weren't in Clacton... They were in clacton until they realised they weren't going to win
I do agree that having a female candidate will help them though
My position at the mo is £120@9/4 ukip... But that could change, a long way to go
Forget Rochester. The next parliamentary by-election is next week. But I doubt Shadsy has opened a book on it due to the closed nature of the electorate.
Following Lord Methuen's death in the summer there is a by-election for a new elected hereditary peer. Although Lord Methuen was a LibDem, as he was originally elected by the whole house, the electorate will be the whole house.
Short statements are provided for each peer standing. Lord Calverley appears an interesting chap!
Another by-election, this time restricted to the hereditary crossbenchers as an electorate, is due following the recent death of Viscount Allenby of Megiddo.
Ladbrokes open betting on who'll win the CON R&S postal primary 4/6 @KellyTolhurst 11/10 @anna_firth
How do you bet on this one? Bothe are local councillors. Are there any PBers with local knowledge?
I see that Anna Firth is a barrister and "mother of 3"
I don't know the candidates, but I'm not surprised that Shadsy has Cllr Tolhurst as the favourite - she seems to have much more local presence. Anna Firth is a Sevenoaks councillor - that's not really local at all, Rochester & Stood is very different to Sevenoaks.
Rising real wages, strongly correlated with the governing party's polling.
Over a decent period maybe. In 6 months and just because the rate of inflation is crashing? I don't think so.
Brent crude is falling, so much so that my £50+ bet at y/e is looking in danger. If Brent crude falls, pump prices drop, the cost of moving food around the country drops and I'm of the mind that everything drops.
Deflation beckons !
Brent Crude - $88.89 at the moment, which at 1.59729 is £55.65. Down $1.32 from yesterday.
How much has the price of oil fallen since the independence referendum? That would have been iScotland's lifeblood. Shows the risks in very stark terms.
How much has the FTSE fallen since the IndyRef?
Clearly an independent Scotland would have kept both high.
My point was that given oil's importance to an independent Scotland's finances, the falls we have seen over the last month would have been pretty catastrophic for the country were it moving towards independence.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
Looking at the latest ComRes favourable/unfavourable poll.
I recently saw a film called 'Pride'. An English film about a group of gays and lesbians who set up a group to support the miners during their strike. Though as so often with this sort of English film its message was laid on with a trowel it was nonetheless well worth watching.
It showed accurately and above all that bigotry and prejudice are exactly that wherever it comes from and whoever the targets and this is something Farage has tapped into.
(As a bonus for those Thatcher lovers (and haters) there's some great footage of the lady)
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR, such as the ludicrous judgements on votes for prisoners.
When I was at uni in 2010-11 we had a debate about the votes for prisoners thing... Of course it was 12 vs 1... One of the arguments put forward was that it was unfair on prisoners that were innocent!!
As if that would be their biggest grievance!!
It's absolutely bat-shit crazy bonkers. It makes absolutely no sense at all. I could understand it if the judgement were to the effect that being able to vote is a fundamental human right, and therefore all prisoners should have the vote; that at least would be an arguable position. But saying that it's a fundamental human right for some prisoners, and not others, based on some completely arbitrary criterion such as the length of sentence, is utterly ludicrous. If it's a human right for a prisoner serving three months, why not for one serving nine months? And if it's OK for parliament to specify a cut-off at 6 months, why is not OK for parliament to specify the cut-off at zero months?
You're assuming that they're making such judgments based on concepts of human rights. But that's a huge mistake. They're actually making such judgments based on a left-liberal philosophy of how we can be kinder to people in general and what won't cause a political backlash. They then try to come up with human rights justification so such a policy-shift falls within their domain as judges.
Tories out campaign Lib Dems, Lib Dems out campaign Labour "On average across the 15 Lib Dem held seats where the Tories are the main challengers, 26% of people recalled being contacted by the Tories recently, compared with 22% by the Lib Dems."
I found that stunning compared to past examples. The finding that Labour are not really trying hard was less surprising. Mark writes "It also doesn’t show the level of motivation of Labour’s grassroots in a good light."
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR, such as the ludicrous judgements on votes for prisoners.
When I was at uni in 2010-11 we had a debate about the votes for prisoners thing... Of course it was 12 vs 1... One of the arguments put forward was that it was unfair on prisoners that were innocent!!
As if that would be their biggest grievance!!
Do you not find it worrying that a government could strip the votes from it's political opponents by jailing them on minor charges for the duration of an election.
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR, such as the ludicrous judgements on votes for prisoners.
When I was at uni in 2010-11 we had a debate about the votes for prisoners thing... Of course it was 12 vs 1... One of the arguments put forward was that it was unfair on prisoners that were innocent!!
As if that would be their biggest grievance!!
Do you not find it worrying that a government could strip the votes from it's political opponents by jailing them on minor charges for the duration of an election.
A government that was willing to do such a thing would probably ignore any theoretical restraints that human rights laws imposed on it.
After all, the Weimar constitution, which guaranteed all kinds of human rights, remained theoretically in force during the Nazi era.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I'd have thought the opposite but time will tell.
I thought every vote for ukip was an anti other party tactical vote?! Seems like everyone is voting for parties they don't actually support to spite someone else... Can't be good long term
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
SeanF I disagree with that comment from Audreyanne. That said, if UKIP keep coming out with socialist stuff, I may lean her way.
SeanF how comfortable are you with the socialist moves of some folk in UKIP?
JonathanD, I thought laws had always been rewritten through interpretation. Strange though it may seem, even laws reviewed by Conservative dominated Select Committees don’t always get it right!
So the full text on that comment is:
"Prevent our laws from being effectively re-written through ‘interpretation’. In future, the UK courts will interpret legislation based upon its normal meaning and the clear intention of Parliament, rather than having to stretch its meaning to comply with Strasbourg case-law. "
I'm not sure what 'normal meaning' means but other than that what are the issues with this idea?
It doesn’t always appear that "the clear intention of Parliament" is in fact clear! And you have commented on the potential problems around “normal meaning”.
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR.
But does it do that? My understanding (which could be wrong) is that any judgement the British courts make in contradiction to the ECHR could just be escalated to the ECHR anyway.
Exactly, unless we withdraw from the ECHR - I'm still not quite clear if that's on the Tory table or not.
Not sure how effective the book ban has been on limiting the availability of hard drugs in prison - but if you want to know the answer on 'why the hell ban books?' - well now you know.
That's bizarre - like the time I had constituents complaining about hooligans throwing blackberries at passing cars, and demanding that the blackberry bushes be uprooted to "solve" the problem. The police gently suggested that if raspberries were unavailable the hooligans would look around for something else, and acting against the hooligans might be better. But if prisoners had unlimited access to well-stocked prison libraries that'd deal with the supposed drug issue. They don't.
I'm not a lawyer so I have no idea how all the legal arguements work but the Tories outline of how their Bill of RIghts would work is here - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/03_10_14_humanrights.pdf . So out of these changes which are the ones that are a problem?
- Put the text of the original Human Rights Convention into primary legislation
Fine.
- Clarify the Convention rights, to reflect a proper balance between rights and responsibilities.
Er, like what exactly?
- Break the formal link between British courts and the European Court of Human Rights.
Meaning that British decisions could no longer be appealed (breaks the ECHR) or not (no discernible meaning)?
- End the ability of the European Court of Human Rights to force the UK to change the law.
In practice, as we've seen, they just rule that we should change it, but don't enforce the ruling.
- Prevent our laws from being effectively re-written through ‘interpretation’.
British judges do it too, and will continue to do so.
- Limit the use of human rights laws to the most serious cases.
Ah. So which laws will no longer be usable, by whom,, when, etc.?
- We will amend the Ministerial Code to remove any ambiguity in the current rules about the duty of Ministers to follow the will of Parliament in the UK.
->What ambiguity?
It's all fluff, so far as I can see - impossible to tell without more information if there's any actual change or not.
The easiest way to reverse EU immigration is for us to simply have a recession.
This will make the UK much less attractive to EU migrants - who are simply here because there are more jobs at higher wages than home.
If we could engineer some kind of a crash, then they'd all go somewhere else.
Can anyone think of anything that might cause a rapid contraction in the size of the UK economy?
No! The easiest and only way to cut overwhelming immigration from the EU is to leave it, and have proper border controls.
I didn't know that you liked writing bunkum, @rcs1000.
Yes, but that would reduce my freedom to work where I like, and hire who I like.
Why don't you want me to have those freedoms?
The nasty little Englanders want to curb all our freedoms.
Lord Carlisle, Lord Judge, and Lord Hoffman have all expressed concern at various rulings from Strasbourg. Neither of them are "nasty little Englanders".
Not everyone in the Tory party is willing to campaign against Reckless:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 24m 24 minutes ago Eurosceptic Tory MP: "I won't be campaigning in Rochester, I have too many pressing engagements between now and then...."
I expect those who want to get rid of Cameron will be curiously absent or doing mischief in Rochester.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
Not for me
I backed them at 7/2 but wouldn't touch them under 9/4
I find it hard to make a case for the Tories... All they seem to have is a hatred of Reckless... So what? Arsene Wenger hates Jose Mourinho, but it doesn't make Arsenal a bet to bt Chelsea
I know you think this helps, which is probably what has stopped me going all in on ukip
Ukip won the euros easily, and have a decent opinion poll lead, plus huge momentum. Labour and Tory councillors have also followed Reckless
Still an interesting betting heat, who knows? All about opinions
Interesting indeed.
Remember that Carswell opened up at a shade of odds on and was 1/4 for a long time before punters realised this was a penalty kick (with the keeper tied to the goalpost.)
I'm part way between you and Mike, Isam. I've backed Con at 7/2 - as a hedge of course - but even starting from a blank sheet, the price is way too big. I don't go quite as far as Mike though. I'd say 2/1 was about right.
We need some more betting markets though - turnout and vote shares for a start. Betfair is being its customary dilatory self, but where is Shadsy? Come on lad, look to it!
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
Understaffed the prisons, which led to mock lock up time.
Bizarrely banned books being sent into prisoners.
Pandered to the tabloids, over TVs in cells. Ignored decades worth of evidence, that TVs in cells reduce the suicide attempts.
Simple truth is, you leave prisoners in cells for longer, it increases the chances of suicide.
Banning books does seem ridiculous - who on earth asked for that one?, I can't imagine even the most right wing of right wing Daily Mail columnists (Hitchens, Heffer, Letts etc) wanting a ban on books.
The book ban was all about the circulation of drugs. Moving drugs around in prison can be hard. The most common route is to cut pages out of books and use the library / book scheme as a conduit for packages of narcotics in the hollowed out books. Not sure how effective the book ban has been on limiting the availability of hard drugs in prison - but if you want to know the answer on 'why the hell ban books?' - well now you know.
Sniffer dog inspections of the cells and library would be a better solution for that- surely !
Also the literacy level of the average prisoner is not high, it would take them a while to get through a book.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
Whatever happened to anti-UKIP vote in Heywood and Middleton, Mike?
My view is the public has been inoculated against attacks on UKIP. Also, revelations in Rotherham and elsewhere has severely tarnished the force of racism allegations, especially amongst Labour voters.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
Whatever happened to anti-UKIP vote in Heywood and Middleton, Mike?
My view is the public has been inoculated against attacks on UKIP. Also, revelations in Rotherham and elsewhere has severely tarnished the force of racism allegations, especially amongst Labour voters.
Good point re anti ukip in H&M I suppose they'll say it was a free hit
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
I wouldn't underestimate the hatred of UKIP as a major factor in tactical voting. I know, anecdotally, many people who have said things about them which have taken my breath away. And I'm not just talking from Tories. Farage particularly seems to divide people.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
Whatever happened to anti-UKIP vote in Heywood and Middleton, Mike?
My view is the public has been inoculated against attacks on UKIP. Also, revelations in Rotherham and elsewhere has severely tarnished the force of racism allegations, especially amongst Labour voters.
Good point re anti ukip in H&M I suppose they'll say it was a free hit
It may be that Labour squeaked home because of anti-UKIP voting by people who would not normally have voted Labour.
The joys of our electoral system is that we will never know for sure!
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
Uncontrolled immigration of unskilled workers is like feeding your kids on junk food and when they get fat and spotty saying "well they can't just not eat they'd starve without it" as if there wasn't a sensible option
That's a great analogy. As is Hannan's example of going into negotiations to buy a car by saying you're determined to buy from the dealer no matter what.
Been meaning to ask you Socrates-the-unwise: do you think George R.R. Martin should be prosecuted?
Yes: for failing to finish "A Song of Ice and Fire", - Game of Thrones, to you - and bring it to a dramatic conclusion./b>
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
pretty breathtaking comment about not 'hating people' when you have said further down you would have been glad if Blair had been murdered
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
UKIP puts you in touch with your inner Polly Toynbee.
Pensions triple lock being lauded by Osborne today, but this naked older voter bribery at the expense of the rest of us is a major reason why the deficit is not going down. Add in millions of people paying no or hardly any income tax thanks to the threshold raising mania and part time working boom, and so the income tax target is being missed. Add in the slowdown in the Eurozone and the political pressures in the run up to the election, and all in all the deficit looks like it will not be coming down at all any time soon.
Could be a good election to lose for the tories, recovery looks like fizzling out and more taxes and cuts are surely inevitable.
This late in the election cycle, the voters making the effort to go to the polls will be limited mainly to those who want to make a statement. The results are interesting, but probably do not give a fair impression of how "ordinary" people will vote in the GE..
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
It does seem an odd extension. Didn't other trials include measures to disguise Mr Pink, Mr White, Mr Green et al.
But I can't say that the closed courts for family matters is a step forward.
To put it another way, how would the new British human rights act differ in content from the rights in the ECHR?
It wouldn't. The point is to free us from the worst effects of the bonkers interpretations of the ECHR, such as the ludicrous judgements on votes for prisoners.
When I was at uni in 2010-11 we had a debate about the votes for prisoners thing... Of course it was 12 vs 1... One of the arguments put forward was that it was unfair on prisoners that were innocent!!
As if that would be their biggest grievance!!
Do you not find it worrying that a government could strip the votes from it's political opponents by jailing them on minor charges for the duration of an election.
The government does not arrest people in this country. Its not North Korea. But if you want to give an example of this actually happening I would be interested
The British Vishinsky was happy to prosecute people for thought crime against PC-dom when these were slightly off-colour (sic) twitter jokes. I think he tried to do the same with Nick Griffin when he gave advance warning of Rotherham style goings on too.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
pretty breathtaking comment about not 'hating people' when you have said further down you would have been glad if Blair had been murdered
Blair murdering brown people=good Brown people murdering Blair=bad?
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
Yep as mentioned below by s-g-a you came out with one of the worst comments seen on this forum in quite a long time. Whatever you think of Tony Blair, wishing a terrorist had succeeded in killing him says everything anyone needs to know about you.
There's nothing wrong with hating extremists, and I think UKIP are extremists. I hate ISIL. I hate Ebola. I hate Pol Pot and Jim Jones. You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
pretty breathtaking comment about not 'hating people' when you have said further down you would have been glad if Blair had been murdered
Blair murdering brown people=good Brown people murdering Blair=bad?
What? All I am saying is that if you hate Blair enough to want him dead (you said it not me) then its a bit rich to castigate somebody as akin to a five year old for using a lot more milder language about UKIP that you did about Blair
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
Given the fiasco (and that is being charitable) over Mr Begg in recent weeks I'm surprised more hasn't been made of this trial.
Then again contempt of court charges does focus the mind.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
Yep as mentioned below by s-g-a you came out with one of the worst comments seen on this forum in quite a long time. Whatever you think of Tony Blair, wishing a terrorist had succeeded in killing him says everything anyone needs to know about you.
There's nothing wrong with hating extremists, and I think UKIP are extremists. I hate ISIL. I hate Ebola. I hate Pol Pot and Jim Jones. You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Bracketing UKIP, a mainstream centre-right party, with ISIL, Pol Pot, and Jim Jones is unhinged.
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
No, not at all.
I am intrigued as to what it is that is so awful it cannot be heard in public. I understand that a few selected journalists are allowed to attend, but not report the case. The mind really does boggle at what is being revealed in secret. It surely wouldn't be just that somebody was trying to kill Blair. (Just one person?!)
I'm just about prepared to accept that there are one or two very extreme cases so awful they cannot be heard in public, but I think the judiciary could and should give us an inkling as to what the problem is. Otherwise it just sounds like the Courts are saying 'Nanny knows best.'
Uncontrolled immigration of unskilled workers is like feeding your kids on junk food and when they get fat and spotty saying "well they can't just not eat they'd starve without it" as if there wasn't a sensible option
That's a great analogy. As is Hannan's example of going into negotiations to buy a car by saying you're determined to buy from the dealer no matter what.
Been meaning to ask you Socrates-the-unwise: do you think George R.R. Martin should be prosecuted?
Yes: for failing to finish "A Song of Ice and Fire", - Game of Thrones, to you - and bring it to a dramatic conclusion./b>
I wonder if Socrates-the-unwise got the point? I watched the whole Tyrion Lannister & Sansa Stark episode last night and couldn't help wondering how Sock would've felt about George R.R. Martin's handling of what he would call paedophilia. I've started the books by the way: top writing!
Just a reminder to avoid spoilers for Game of Thrones/A Song of Ice and Fire. Whilst up to date with the books, I'm a series behind with the TV show, and there are probably others who read the site and are behind with one or both.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
pretty breathtaking comment about not 'hating people' when you have said further down you would have been glad if Blair had been murdered
Blair murdering brown people=good Brown people murdering Blair=bad?
What? All I am saying is that if you hate Blair enough to want him dead (you said it not me) then its a bit rich to castigate somebody as akin to a five year old for using a lot more milder language about UKIP that you did about Blair
I don't hate him, I just think it would be quite funny.
Just a reminder to avoid spoilers for Game of Thrones/A Song of Ice and Fire. Whilst up to date with the books, I'm a series behind with the TV show, and there are probably others who read the site and are behind with one or both.
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
No, not at all.
I am intrigued as to what it is that is so awful it cannot be heard in public. I understand that a few selected journalists are allowed to attend, but not report the case. The mind really does boggle at what is being revealed in secret. It surely wouldn't be just that somebody was trying to kill Blair. (Just one person?!)
I'm just about prepared to accept that there are one or two very extreme cases so awful they cannot be heard in public, but I think the judiciary could and should give us an inkling as to what the problem is. Otherwise it just sounds like the Courts are saying 'Nanny knows best.'
Not convinced Nanny does.
From what I have read there are 3 sections of the trial - Open, Closed but open to accredited journalists (who will have notes checked afterwards), and Closed even to journalists. I have a real issue with the principle of justice being open and visible being broken, and am surprised that there is less media notice of this trial given that there was a fair bit when the law was passed. Perhaps they are waiting for a more 'sympathetic' case, but a principle is a principle.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
Yep as mentioned below by s-g-a you came out with one of the worst comments seen on this forum in quite a long time. Whatever you think of Tony Blair, wishing a terrorist had succeeded in killing him says everything anyone needs to know about you.
There's nothing wrong with hating extremists, and I think UKIP are extremists. I hate ISIL. I hate Ebola. I hate Pol Pot and Jim Jones. You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
pretty breathtaking comment about not 'hating people' when you have said further down you would have been glad if Blair had been murdered
Blair murdering brown people=good Brown people murdering Blair=bad?
What? All I am saying is that if you hate Blair enough to want him dead (you said it not me) then its a bit rich to castigate somebody as akin to a five year old for using a lot more milder language about UKIP that you did about Blair
I don't hate him, I just think it would be quite funny.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
I don't understand this level of bile from erstwhile fellow Conservatives. I vote for policies of the moderate Right. I'm not a tribalist. But I wouldn't vote Labour, or Green, in a million years, for that reason.
I might consider a David Laws or Jeremy Browne, but only in certain scenarios as I distrust them on three big issues. But I also distrust Cameron on them.
What might drive me permanently out of the Conservatives is welching on Europe and Immigration policies and decimating Defence. I was also very worried by the article Robert Fox penned in the ES last night, claiming the Treasury has a secret plan to cut a *further* 7.5% from the defence budget in the 2015 SDR.
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
Given the fiasco (and that is being charitable) over Mr Begg in recent weeks I'm surprised more hasn't been made of this trial.
Then again contempt of court charges does focus the mind.
True - will be interesting to read what Private Eye have to say about it. They at least are, how shall I put this, less afraid of sailing close to the wind.
Bracketing UKIP, a mainstream centre-right party, with ISIL, Pol Pot, and Jim Jones is unhinged.
Indeed. THat said, UKIP are much better when they are talking about independence and who controls England than they are when talking about immigration.
I wouldn't underestimate the hatred of UKIP as a major factor in tactical voting. I know, anecdotally, many people who have said things about them which have taken my breath away. And I'm not just talking from Tories. Farage particularly seems to divide people.
But it is YOUR personal hatred of UKIP that is oozing out of your pores this morning. Take a pill and calm down.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
pretty breathtaking comment about not 'hating people' when you have said further down you would have been glad if Blair had been murdered
Blair murdering brown people=good Brown people murdering Blair=bad?
What? All I am saying is that if you hate Blair enough to want him dead (you said it not me) then its a bit rich to castigate somebody as akin to a five year old for using a lot more milder language about UKIP that you did about Blair
I don't hate him, I just think it would be quite funny.
Given this is the first trial to be held (at least partially) in secret. (at least to my knowledge) I am surprised that there hasn't been more comment on it. Everyone happy with secret courts now, or just other things to focus on?
No, not at all.
I am intrigued as to what it is that is so awful it cannot be heard in public. I understand that a few selected journalists are allowed to attend, but not report the case. The mind really does boggle at what is being revealed in secret. It surely wouldn't be just that somebody was trying to kill Blair. (Just one person?!)
I'm just about prepared to accept that there are one or two very extreme cases so awful they cannot be heard in public, but I think the judiciary could and should give us an inkling as to what the problem is. Otherwise it just sounds like the Courts are saying 'Nanny knows best.'
Not convinced Nanny does.
From what I have read there are 3 sections of the trial - Open, Closed but open to accredited journalists (who will have notes checked afterwards), and Closed even to journalists. I have a real issue with the principle of justice being open and visible being broken, and am surprised that there is less media notice of this trial given that there was a fair bit when the law was passed. Perhaps they are waiting for a more 'sympathetic' case, but a principle is a principle.
We should certainly be concerned.
I fail to see why, at the very least, the public cannot be allowed to know - in outline at least - the nature of the closed parts.
I wouldn't underestimate the hatred of UKIP as a major factor in tactical voting. I know, anecdotally, many people who have said things about them which have taken my breath away. And I'm not just talking from Tories. Farage particularly seems to divide people.
Take a pill and calm down.
Sounds like your equivalent of 'calm down dear.'
Actually I'm as chilled as a goldfish, ta very much. I just don't like UKIP.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
I don't understand this level of bile from erstwhile fellow Conservatives. I vote for policies of the moderate Right. I'm not a tribalist. But I wouldn't vote Labour, or Green, in a million years, for that reason.
I might consider a David Laws or Jeremy Browne, but only in certain scenarios as I distrust them on three big issues. But I also distrust Cameron on them.
What might drive me permanently out of the Conservatives is welching on Europe and Immigration policies and decimating Defence. I was also very worried by the article Robert Fox penned in the ES last night, claiming the Treasury has a secret plan to cut a *further* 7.5% from the defence budget in the 2015 SDR.
They're planning to cut defence further?! I assumed that everyone had come to the common sense conclusion that recent global events had meant it was a mistake to cut defence so much, and they were just waiting for the right point to reverse them in the least politically embarrassing manner.
We know that many 2010 Lib Dems have switched to Labour.
Do we know if these same 2010 Lib Dems were previously Labour, Conservative or other?
If they were Labour pre 2010 before voting Lib Dem, then switching to Labour now is returning to their allegiance and we can not expect them to 'return' to Lib Dem.
Regarding Rochester and Strood, the most striking thing about the only opinion poll we have is that labour were a lot closer to the Tories than the Tories were to ukip... Yet they are any price you like to win, and labour apparently aren't going to try
Ukip 40 Con 31 Lab 25
You are likely to see anti-UKIP tactical voting by LAB and LD supporters.
I notice that the all postal ballot CON primary will be between two women CON councillors from the area. Interesting to see how that shapes out.
I still think the value bet is on CON at anything longer than 6/4.
As a Conservative I would probably vote Labour to keep out UKIP. I hate them.
I can't say I'm surprised.
If there's one thing worse than the extreme left it's the extreme right. Pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, nasty malcontents, mavericks and reactionaries.
The use by anyone aged over about 5 of the words "I hate them" is a pretty reliable indicator that the speaker is pernicious, vindictive, spiteful, and nasty. Do you think you are doing oyur party any favours with those who have voted for it in the past and are thinking of changing to UKIP or do you not believe there are any such people?
Yep as mentioned below by s-g-a you came out with one of the worst comments seen on this forum in quite a long time. Whatever you think of Tony Blair, wishing a terrorist had succeeded in killing him says everything anyone needs to know about you.
There's nothing wrong with hating extremists, and I think UKIP are extremists. I hate ISIL. I hate Ebola. I hate Pol Pot and Jim Jones. You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Bracketing UKIP, a mainstream centre-right party, with ISIL, Pol Pot, and Jim Jones is unhinged.
Yes. Even worse than bracketing convicted murderers with HIV sufferers.
Hating only hurts the hater.
I dislike UKIP and the SNP because their trade is to offer simplistic solutions to complex problems caused by an 'other' - and if only we could get rid of Westminster/Brussels (delete as appropriate) everything would be so much better.
If either of them ever get their wish, their supporters are going to be sorely disappointed.
After Salmond's unedifying performance on R4 this morning, Iain Martin tweeted: When they carry Alex Salmond off he'll still be shouting "and another thing!" His departure not proving very dignified.
You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Richard Nixon never stopped hating.
To be fair you'd be a hater if you believed, not without merit, that The Presidency had been stolen from you.
Al Gore could believe that, I think that Nixon was the architect of his own downfall.
I once attended an evening with Conrad Black (as part of a school trip to the telegraph offices)
Lord Black had written/was writing his biography of Richard Nixon.
Nixon was convicted what happened in Chicago in 1960 (ballot rigging by Mayor Daley for JFK) happened across the country.
In part Watergate was to make sure the Dems didn't steal it again.
As amusing aside Mayor Daley's son ran Al Gore's campaign in 2000.
Sorry, I have some sympathy with your view on Nixon/Kennedy, I thought you meant Nixon/Watergate. Not surprised that Conrad Black (presumably) admired Nixon. Al Gore (2000) must still be the prime example of a stolen election though.
Mr. K, but he will finish it, although it's near certain the TV series will conclude before the books, which is a shame.
He's actually released several chapters from The Winds of Winter, although I know you don't want to be spoiled.
I've been reading A song of Ice and fire since I picked up a first printing of "A game of Thrones" in Tel-Aviv in 1997. I want to finish it before I reach my dotage and GRRM is just dragging it out. I even wrote a letter to him some years ago begging him to finish the series. He answered me saying he's got a lot to do. Yeh!
You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Richard Nixon never stopped hating.
To be fair you'd be a hater if you believed, not without merit, that The Presidency had been stolen from you.
Al Gore could believe that, I think that Nixon was the architect of his own downfall.
There are some good sites that try to rate US Presidents from best to worse.
The surprising thing is the amount of consensus, particularly at both ends of the spectrum. Lincoln, Washington and FDR generally get top billing; the worst are confined pretty much to the earlier Presidents. Nixon is the exception - stone last of the moderns, and not much above some of the truly awful early Presidents.
For those still fretting about 'gay marriage', the Economist has an article on the transformation of attitude across the pond:
The change since 2004, when Massachusetts pioneered the recognition of gay marriage, is remarkable. Massachusetts’ move ignited a national backlash as other states tumbled over one another to enact legal bans on gay marriage, often by constitutional decree, as quickly as they could. Though it took two tries in Arizona, these prohibitions passed everywhere they were offered, reaching 30 states in all and handing the marriage-equality movement one of the most impressive losing streaks in American political history.
Marriage traditionalists crowed that the people would never accept a hare-brained idea foisted upon them by homosexual activists and their elitist friends. Rare and brave was the politician who supported gay marriage. Barack Obama opposed it in his 2008 presidential campaign, despite what he promised would be his “fierce advocacy” of gay and lesbian equality.
Yet today gay marriage enjoys solid majority support, a change in popular opinion unforeseen by equality supporters and opponents alike. In a country where public opinion on controversial social issues usually changes slowly (not until the mid-1990s did more than half of Americans approve of interracial marriage, according to Gallup, a pollster), one is hard pressed to think of any precedent.
Can we cut discussion of GoT/A Song of Ice & Fire as I'm currently starting book 4, and have done my darnedest to avoid spoilers. And with discussion occasionally an inadvertent spoiler pops up.
Comments
Hardly news is it? How many convictions have there been for police related deaths in the last thirty years?
I backed them at 7/2 but wouldn't touch them under 9/4
I find it hard to make a case for the Tories... All they seem to have is a hatred of Reckless... So what? Arsene Wenger hates Jose Mourinho, but it doesn't make Arsenal a bet to bt Chelsea
I know you think this helps, which is probably what has stopped me going all in on ukip
Ukip won the euros easily, and have a decent opinion poll lead, plus huge momentum. Labour and Tory councillors have also followed Reckless
Still an interesting betting heat, who knows? All about opinions
Clearly an independent Scotland would have kept both high.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/lord-neuberger-on-the-supreme-court-five-key-cases-from-its-first-five-years-9789269.html
I just think it's nonsense that the Tories are 'super motivated' here which implies they weren't in Clacton... They were in clacton until they realised they weren't going to win
I do agree that having a female candidate will help them though
My position at the mo is £120@9/4 ukip... But that could change, a long way to go
Following Lord Methuen's death in the summer there is a by-election for a new elected hereditary peer. Although Lord Methuen was a LibDem, as he was originally elected by the whole house, the electorate will be the whole house.
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/Lords Notice 15 Sept 2014 Lord Methuen by-election.pdf
Short statements are provided for each peer standing. Lord Calverley appears an interesting chap!
Another by-election, this time restricted to the hereditary crossbenchers as an electorate, is due following the recent death of Viscount Allenby of Megiddo.
current-Labour supporters
Conservative Party: +4% / -76% (-72)
UKIP: +12% / -58% (-46)
current-LD supporters
Conservative Party: +18% / -55% (-37)
UKIP: +10% / -66% (-56)
-----------------
2010-Labour
Conservative Party: +8% / -71% (-63)
UKIP: +18% / -55% (-37)
2010-LD
Conservative Party: +12% / -65% (-53)
UKIP: +20% / -55% (-35)
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf
http://www.thornegazette.co.uk/news/local/independent-doncaster-councillor-joins-ukip-1-6894502
It showed accurately and above all that bigotry and prejudice are exactly that wherever it comes from and whoever the targets and this is something Farage has tapped into.
(As a bonus for those Thatcher lovers (and haters) there's some great footage of the lady)
London man Erol Incedal accused of preparing acts of terrorism after address of Blair property found on paper in glasses case
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/14/terrorism-trial-possible-plot-kill-tony-blair
https://labourlist.org/2014/10/labour-shouldnt-follow-farages-lead-immigration-is-not-the-problem/
http://labourlist.org/2014/10/our-near-defeat-last-week-was-the-wake-up-call-labour-needed/
abourlist.org/2014/10/miliband-not-planning-an-imminent-reshuffle/
http://www.markpack.org.uk/76267/tories-campaign-lib-dems-lib-dems-campaign-labour/
Tories out campaign Lib Dems, Lib Dems out campaign Labour
"On average across the 15 Lib Dem held seats where the Tories are the main challengers, 26% of people recalled being contacted by the Tories recently, compared with 22% by the Lib Dems."
I found that stunning compared to past examples. The finding that Labour are not really trying hard was less surprising. Mark writes "It also doesn’t show the level of motivation of Labour’s grassroots in a good light."
After all, the Weimar constitution, which guaranteed all kinds of human rights, remained theoretically in force during the Nazi era.
@CCHQPress
Labour MPs are clamouring to get on http://justnotuptoit.com/ -due to sheer volume of attacks against Ed, please be patient while we add you on
That said, if UKIP keep coming out with socialist stuff, I may lean her way.
SeanF how comfortable are you with the socialist moves of some folk in UKIP?
I find high quality trolling from political parties amusing,
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 24m 24 minutes ago
Eurosceptic Tory MP: "I won't be campaigning in Rochester, I have too many pressing engagements between now and then...."
I expect those who want to get rid of Cameron will be curiously absent or doing mischief in Rochester.
Politics should be better than that I think
re the Dave poster spoofs, he was there to be shot at for doing the posters in the first place
Remember that Carswell opened up at a shade of odds on and was 1/4 for a long time before punters realised this was a penalty kick (with the keeper tied to the goalpost.)
I'm part way between you and Mike, Isam. I've backed Con at 7/2 - as a hedge of course - but even starting from a blank sheet, the price is way too big. I don't go quite as far as Mike though. I'd say 2/1 was about right.
We need some more betting markets though - turnout and vote shares for a start. Betfair is being its customary dilatory self, but where is Shadsy? Come on lad, look to it!
Also the literacy level of the average prisoner is not high, it would take them a while to get through a book.
My view is the public has been inoculated against attacks on UKIP.
Also, revelations in Rotherham and elsewhere has severely tarnished the force of racism allegations, especially amongst Labour voters.
I wouldn't underestimate the hatred of UKIP as a major factor in tactical voting. I know, anecdotally, many people who have said things about them which have taken my breath away. And I'm not just talking from Tories. Farage particularly seems to divide people.
The joys of our electoral system is that we will never know for sure!
Labour's biggest problem to me seems to be GOTV, their voters are simply put sinfully lazy.
He should get the maximum sentence, no question about it.
Pensions triple lock being lauded by Osborne today, but this naked older voter bribery at the expense of the rest of us is a major reason why the deficit is not going down. Add in millions of people paying no or hardly any income tax thanks to the threshold raising mania and part time working boom, and so the income tax target is being missed. Add in the slowdown in the Eurozone and the political pressures in the run up to the election, and all in all the deficit looks like it will not be coming down at all any time soon.
Could be a good election to lose for the tories, recovery looks like fizzling out and more taxes and cuts are surely inevitable.
The results are interesting, but probably do not give a fair impression of how "ordinary" people will vote in the GE..
But I can't say that the closed courts for family matters is a step forward.
The British Vishinsky was happy to prosecute people for thought crime against PC-dom when these were slightly off-colour (sic) twitter jokes. I think he tried to do the same with Nick Griffin when he gave advance warning of Rotherham style goings on too.
Brown people murdering Blair=bad?
There's nothing wrong with hating extremists, and I think UKIP are extremists. I hate ISIL. I hate Ebola. I hate Pol Pot and Jim Jones. You can be a decent person and still hate certain things. Unless you're a brain in a vat.
Obviosly SNP & PC have to be in on debates on Scots and Welsh “local” TV, too!
Could yet get messier.
Then again contempt of court charges does focus the mind.
No, not at all.
I am intrigued as to what it is that is so awful it cannot be heard in public. I understand that a few selected journalists are allowed to attend, but not report the case. The mind really does boggle at what is being revealed in secret. It surely wouldn't be just that somebody was trying to kill Blair. (Just one person?!)
I'm just about prepared to accept that there are one or two very extreme cases so awful they cannot be heard in public, but I think the judiciary could and should give us an inkling as to what the problem is. Otherwise it just sounds like the Courts are saying 'Nanny knows best.'
Not convinced Nanny does.
I wonder if Socrates-the-unwise got the point? I watched the whole Tyrion Lannister & Sansa Stark episode last night and couldn't help wondering how Sock would've felt about George R.R. Martin's handling of what he would call paedophilia. I've started the books by the way: top writing!
I might consider a David Laws or Jeremy Browne, but only in certain scenarios as I distrust them on three big issues. But I also distrust Cameron on them.
What might drive me permanently out of the Conservatives is welching on Europe and Immigration policies and decimating Defence. I was also very worried by the article Robert Fox penned in the ES last night, claiming the Treasury has a secret plan to cut a *further* 7.5% from the defence budget in the 2015 SDR.
Indeed. THat said, UKIP are much better when they are talking about independence and who controls England than they are when talking about immigration.
Mr. Away, lies! Alfred is a good man.
Lord Black had written/was writing his biography of Richard Nixon.
Nixon was convicted what happened in Chicago in 1960 (ballot rigging by Mayor Daley for JFK) happened across the country.
In part Watergate was to make sure the Dems didn't steal it again.
As amusing aside Mayor Daley's son ran Al Gore's campaign in 2000.
I fail to see why, at the very least, the public cannot be allowed to know - in outline at least - the nature of the closed parts.
Actually I'm as chilled as a goldfish, ta very much. I just don't like UKIP.
Do we know if these same 2010 Lib Dems were previously Labour, Conservative or other?
If they were Labour pre 2010 before voting Lib Dem, then switching to Labour now is returning to their allegiance and we can not expect them to 'return' to Lib Dem.
Hating only hurts the hater.
I dislike UKIP and the SNP because their trade is to offer simplistic solutions to complex problems caused by an 'other' - and if only we could get rid of Westminster/Brussels (delete as appropriate) everything would be so much better.
If either of them ever get their wish, their supporters are going to be sorely disappointed.
After Salmond's unedifying performance on R4 this morning, Iain Martin tweeted: When they carry Alex Salmond off he'll still be shouting "and another thing!" His departure not proving very dignified.
Not surprised that Conrad Black (presumably) admired Nixon.
Al Gore (2000) must still be the prime example of a stolen election though.
The surprising thing is the amount of consensus, particularly at both ends of the spectrum. Lincoln, Washington and FDR generally get top billing; the worst are confined pretty much to the earlier Presidents. Nixon is the exception - stone last of the moderns, and not much above some of the truly awful early Presidents.
Start here if it interests you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States
The change since 2004, when Massachusetts pioneered the recognition of gay marriage, is remarkable. Massachusetts’ move ignited a national backlash as other states tumbled over one another to enact legal bans on gay marriage, often by constitutional decree, as quickly as they could. Though it took two tries in Arizona, these prohibitions passed everywhere they were offered, reaching 30 states in all and handing the marriage-equality movement one of the most impressive losing streaks in American political history.
Marriage traditionalists crowed that the people would never accept a hare-brained idea foisted upon them by homosexual activists and their elitist friends. Rare and brave was the politician who supported gay marriage. Barack Obama opposed it in his 2008 presidential campaign, despite what he promised would be his “fierce advocacy” of gay and lesbian equality.
Yet today gay marriage enjoys solid majority support, a change in popular opinion unforeseen by equality supporters and opponents alike. In a country where public opinion on controversial social issues usually changes slowly (not until the mid-1990s did more than half of Americans approve of interracial marriage, according to Gallup, a pollster), one is hard pressed to think of any precedent.
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21623671-week-americas-supreme-court-dealt-supporters-gay-marriage-great-victory-we-look
I am sure others are in the same boat !