The Opinium survey will be almost entirely before Heywood, so UKIP will have hit the Tories most when they are clearly now hitting Labour too, Opinium also has UKIP higher than other pollsters. Even so, 35% is no great triumph for Miliband either and they are on only 32% with ICM
Brooks Newmark has been caught in another scandal by the Sun on Sunday.
He's quitting as an MP at the election now
Wait a minute. He'd already stated he was quitting at the next election...
Surely he should be quitting NOW?
It depends. The original story was unusual in that the people who should most have been in the dock were the 'journalist' who got the story, and the paper that printed it.
I'm treating this story with a certain amount of suspicion until we get more information. Guido's been going after Newmark to protect his friend, so who knows what's been dredged up ...
Sad to hear about the Brooks Newmark news, having campaigned in Braintree for him in 2001 when Labour narrowly held on. The town itself is lower middle/working class, ideal UKIP terrain with a significant Labour vote, but many of the surrounding villages are more prosperous and more likely to stick with the Tories
With no incumbent MP for the Tories now, UKIP probably are have a serious chance in gaining Braintree.
After the uprising of June 17th The Secretary of the Authors' Union Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee Which said that the people Had forfeited the government's confidence And could only win it back By redoubled labour. Wouldn't it Be simpler in that case if the government Dissolved the people and Elected another?
Parris is being a tit.
Parris has completely lost the plot. He's a great recruiting Sergeant for UKIP!
The Opinium survey will be almost entirely before Heywood, so UKIP will have hit the Tories most when they are clearly now hitting Labour too, Opinium also has UKIP higher than other pollsters. Even so, 35% is no great triumph for Miliband either and they are on only 32% with ICM
It is inconceivable that Con or Lab would form a UK coalition government with
i) any of the NI parties [the risk of fallout for the peace process]
ii) SNP, a regional separatist party [inconceivable the SNP would join, for the same reason]
More informal arrangements are perfectly possible though.
Hmm. Tories worked with them in Scotland.
But the SNP just became incredibly unpredictable, since they are 75% brand new members.
I don't think anyone knows what the SNP is now.
Perhaps we should start calling them the "Pretender Party".
What a halfwit, you are obviously not right in the head. They have not changed one iota.
Afternoon malc. just what we need a bit of Scotland to bring some calm and reasoned debate back to PB. These southern boys just all resort to name calling. ;-)
Will soon sort them out Alan. We will soon be discussing the 2017 referendum on independence debate so will just be boring for a short while.
I can't wait. What will you be promising this time ? How about invading England ? ;-)
Free deep fried mars bars and irn bru for life if you can prove you voted YES.
we'll let you go independent if you;ll take George Osborne off our hands.
Typical bloody Ulsterman starts off asking for too little. They can go independent iff they take Osborne and Cameron.
I was going to offer Cameron to France for us leaving the EU. They'd both feel happier.
David Wooding @DavidWooding 3m3 minutes ago BREAKING: Shamed Tory Brooks Newmark to quit as MP after fresh sex scandal. See The Sun on Sunday exclusive tomorrow http://bit.ly/1p1moDo
By election?
Braintree is in Essex not far away from Clacton.
Interesting...
Ladbrokes halved UKIPs braintree odds at lunchtime.
The irony of that post is that poor old Tim Montgomerie still seems to think that the Tories are some sort of guardians of British Euroscepticism when in reality they are nothing of the sort.....
After the uprising of June 17th The Secretary of the Authors' Union Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee Which said that the people Had forfeited the government's confidence And could only win it back By redoubled labour. Wouldn't it Be simpler in that case if the government Dissolved the people and Elected another?
Parris is being a tit.
Parris has completely lost the plot. He's a great recruiting Sergeant for UKIP!
Here's an astonishing fact that brings two maelstroms together.
@Pong's article mentions the s***storm surrounding Alex Day - if you don't know who he is, and why he matters, it's worth having a readaround. The allegations that are flying around the current crop of young virtual "stars" are becoming a kind of Gen 2.0 counterpoint to the re-emergence of 70s scandals that the media are eating themselves with at the moment. There's some nuance in that - which Pong's article well reflects - but it's impossible to avoid the similarities.
Now if your stomach can take it, there is an excellent article archived by the Guardian from 2001, concerning the fall of Jonathan King. King clearly felt he'd fallen into a grey and nuanced area, with his systematic modes of entrapping his young fans during "market research". Of course the Law felt otherwise, that a line had been crossed, and King had to pay a high price for it. One reason I think Pong's article is of general interest, is that it highlights some aspects of teenage life that parents may find unsettling. The fact that today's virtual stars are more accessible - just the push of a button away - to their 15 and 16 year old fans, and more likely to interact, than King's generation were, ought to be of concern. But the routinised methodology, pretty much down to a typed script of "seduction", is uncannily reminiscent.
And then we come to 2011 and a shockingly unrepentant interview in the Indy. Less quease-inducing as the fine detail is skipped over, but an awareness of the background of the conviction makes King's self-justification even more troubling. He hits back at the terms of his punishment: being on the sex offenders register means he "cannot discover and nurture a new Peter Gabriel, or a Joni Mitchell, or a Prince, should they be under 18." And yet all is not lost. "Because I think I'm still quite good at spotting things. I have my protégé at the moment, Alex Day."
King was a mentor to Day, helped him make the transition from a purely "virtual" star, to one who reached out into the wider world - radio play, chart success.
The relationship between Alex Day and Jonathan King has been little-remarked, in fact I've seen no reference to it anywhere in press coverage of the Day controversy: I suspect that simply because those aware of the existence of one, know little to nothing about the other. Two utterly different generations, and cultures, after all. But the way two of our current socio-cultural convulsings come so close together really made me sit up when I first realised it..
The irony of that post is that poor old Tim Montgomerie still seems to think that the Tories are some sort of guardians of British Euroscepticism when in reality they are nothing of the sort.....
The report is written by one Eric Kauffman
I am Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London, UK. Though a native of Vancouver, British Columbia, I was born in Hong Kong and spent eight early years of my life in Tokyo. In winter, my favourite pastimes are (ice) hockey and skiing. In summer, cooling off in the ocean or by the lake. I am principally interested in cultural politics: ethnicity, national identity and religion.
Another immigrant trying to tell us what we are thinking.......
After the uprising of June 17th The Secretary of the Authors' Union Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee Which said that the people Had forfeited the government's confidence And could only win it back By redoubled labour. Wouldn't it Be simpler in that case if the government Dissolved the people and Elected another?
Parris is being a tit.
Parris has completely lost the plot. He's a great recruiting Sergeant for UKIP!
Really ? Most voters won't have a clue who he is.
You seem to forget Parris has been a broadcaster for many decades and an MP. He will be far better known than many of the newspaper political commentators. His Clacton comments got quite a lot of attention too!
Comments
I'm treating this story with a certain amount of suspicion until we get more information. Guido's been going after Newmark to protect his friend, so who knows what's been dredged up ...
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5988139/Ukip-MEP-visits-massage-parlour-after-Clacton-victory.html
Ladbrokes halved UKIPs braintree odds at lunchtime.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/braintree/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today
@Pong's article mentions the s***storm surrounding Alex Day - if you don't know who he is, and why he matters, it's worth having a readaround. The allegations that are flying around the current crop of young virtual "stars" are becoming a kind of Gen 2.0 counterpoint to the re-emergence of 70s scandals that the media are eating themselves with at the moment. There's some nuance in that - which Pong's article well reflects - but it's impossible to avoid the similarities.
Now if your stomach can take it, there is an excellent article archived by the Guardian from 2001, concerning the fall of Jonathan King. King clearly felt he'd fallen into a grey and nuanced area, with his systematic modes of entrapping his young fans during "market research". Of course the Law felt otherwise, that a line had been crossed, and King had to pay a high price for it. One reason I think Pong's article is of general interest, is that it highlights some aspects of teenage life that parents may find unsettling. The fact that today's virtual stars are more accessible - just the push of a button away - to their 15 and 16 year old fans, and more likely to interact, than King's generation were, ought to be of concern. But the routinised methodology, pretty much down to a typed script of "seduction", is uncannily reminiscent.
And then we come to 2011 and a shockingly unrepentant interview in the Indy. Less quease-inducing as the fine detail is skipped over, but an awareness of the background of the conviction makes King's self-justification even more troubling. He hits back at the terms of his punishment: being on the sex offenders register means he "cannot discover and nurture a new Peter Gabriel, or a Joni Mitchell, or a Prince, should they be under 18." And yet all is not lost. "Because I think I'm still quite good at spotting things. I have my protégé at the moment, Alex Day."
King was a mentor to Day, helped him make the transition from a purely "virtual" star, to one who reached out into the wider world - radio play, chart success.
The relationship between Alex Day and Jonathan King has been little-remarked, in fact I've seen no reference to it anywhere in press coverage of the Day controversy: I suspect that simply because those aware of the existence of one, know little to nothing about the other. Two utterly different generations, and cultures, after all. But the way two of our current socio-cultural convulsings come so close together really made me sit up when I first realised it..
CON 1/33 (from 1/100 this afternoon)
UKIP 10/1 (up from 20/1 this afternoon probably from someone with inside info)
I am Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London, UK. Though a native of Vancouver, British Columbia, I was born in Hong Kong and spent eight early years of my life in Tokyo. In winter, my favourite pastimes are (ice) hockey and skiing. In summer, cooling off in the ocean or by the lake. I am principally interested in cultural politics: ethnicity, national identity and religion.
Another immigrant trying to tell us what we are thinking.......
Sterotomy Will see what other polls bring
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Parris
I did not think the Tories should have got a bounce just because of one speech promising 7bn of tax cuts , without telling us where it will come from.
And, hey presto, another bounce back to Labour, again without any particular reason.
The Survation numbers are just pie in the sky.
The trouble with online polls is that they have too many fiddling factors .