Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov on Labour’s recent policy announcements

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov on Labour’s recent policy announcements

Few think the "mansion tax" policy is a vote-winner for Labour: our latest @TimesRedBox poll – http://t.co/0zHmHOf3qc pic.twitter.com/wZhWQiJJTj

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Our "part-ELBOW" for this week updated for YouGov 8th Oct (total 5 polls now):

    Lab 34.0% (-1.6)
    Con 32.8% (+0.1)
    UKIP 14.7% (+0.3)
    LD 7.6% (+0.2)

    Lab lead 1.2% (-1.7)

    Note the Lab drop of 1.6% is only partly explained by the increases in the other main parties (Con barely up, in fact).
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?
  • The public don't like tax rises but like spending is all it shows.

    Even if they think the tax will not apply to them they are not that keen also (a lesson for some on the left who do envy politics)

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ho-Hum. A middle of the afternoon thread, smack in the middle of siesta time. ZZZZZZZZZZ!
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    edited October 2014
    FPT (Got caught by the new thread curse :) )

    The argument that a Labour government will be all Cameron's fault, even though UKIP voters refuse to help him prevent one, is akin to arguing that it was all the pub's fault you drove home drunk.

    Obviously you had to drive home with no regard for the consequences to the bus queue you took out. It was the pub's fault for selling you all that lager.

    The most leftist thing about UKIP - and what may yet deliver them a few Labour votes - is a sincere and visceral conviction that everything is somebody else's fault and nothing is ever their own fault.
    UKIP hasn't attracted people from the conservatives directly it has attracted those who have already been driven away by disgust of your party. No one else to blame but the tory party and Cameron in particular

    For most people this argument fails because it is completely one-eyed. Cameron will be replaced, if he is, by Labour. Most people would agree, I think, that Cameron is more Conservative than Labour. Most would also agree, I think, that Miliband has moved his party much further to the left than has Cameron, although it is only the latter's supposed shift that enrages kippers.

    Only a certain and unusual type of voter takes the view that if, because of me, I get Miliband instead of Cameron, that must be Cameron's fault. It's not; it's your fault for failing to take on board the above and letting it happen. You can't say you weren't warned.

    Frankly your response is bollocks.

    I as a voter do not want to vote for someone because they are slightly less big state than labour. I want to vote for someone who is small state. Cameron is not for a small state merely for a less big state. If I was looking for a small pet would you wouldn't think me mad for rejecting an elephant even though it was smaller than a mammoth you would think it quite sane when I said no thanks to both and went away petless

    in the same vein

    I as a voter do not want to vote for someone because they will infringe on my civil liberties and free speech slightly less than labour I want to vote for a party that believes in civil liberties and actually supports them.

    I as a voter do not want to vote for someone who will not let the debt grow quite as fast as labour I want to vote for someone who is serious about the deficit and then going after the debt.

    Do not offer me your tawdry compromises I am not interested in you being slightly better than Labour is not good enough for me nor for a million like me anymore we do not want you, we will not vote for you. Want our votes go and earn them don't whinge at us for your incapacity to do so

  • ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?

    I should have been clearer.

    When it comes to the NHS, Labour supporters do get energised by their own party on this, and other parties don't energise them in the same way.

    Particularly as the question mentions reversing the coalition's changes on the NHS.

    But I understand your viewpoint.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    They should take this a step further and ask the voters what they think the voters will think about what the voters will think.
  • Weird question.

    YouGov are asking the public a question on which they are entirely inexpert.

    Why not just ask them what policies they themselves like?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?

    History is very much against him. I did a thread on it once a while back, the Tories were polling above historical levels on the NHS, which still meant they were getting smashed by Labour.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Motherhood and apple pie. Spend loads of other people's money on goody two shoes things. Whats new?
  • corporeal said:

    ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?
    History is very much against him. I did a thread on it once a while back, the Tories were polling above historical levels on the NHS, which still meant they were getting smashed by Labour.

    This piece

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/14/corporeal-on-david-cameron-and-the-nhs/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    I wonder how many other people had a nasty shock when they heard the news today that, instead of checking people for ebola when they arrive in the UK, we're apparently relying on the origin country to check for the virus.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    I am surprised these Labourite populist policies are not more popular. Could it mean the public are getting disenchanted with Labour and their hollow promises?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2014
    re the mansion tax.

    Scottish budget today has proposed a new 12% stamp duty rate on houses above £1M north of the border from April.

    Punative - but easier to calculate and collect than Labour's mansion tax.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Weird question.

    YouGov are asking the public a question on which they are entirely inexpert.

    Why not just ask them what policies they themselves like?

    Pollsters watching too much Family Fortunes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Afternoon all :)

    To be honest, I've never supported the Mansion Tax even though Vince Cable and many in the LDs thought it a good idea. It's a weak and lazy solution to a much bigger problem.

    There is an urgent need to review the Council Tax bands in the light of property price movements since 1993 - I don't mind if that means adding two or three extra bands at the higher end if need be and extending the range of the current bands. There may even be an argument for regionalising the bands to take account of cost variations across the country but all that can be cone if there's the will to do so.

    The problem is that while many in low-cost housing stand to gain through a downward movement in their banding, the wealthy (and £350k for a house isn't that much in many parts of southern England) would almost certainly lose out if new bands were created.

    As always, any taxational challenge to the wealthy will be fiercely opposed by said wealthy but that doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    I wonder how many other people had a nasty shock when they heard the news today that, instead of checking people for ebola when they arrive in the UK, we're apparently relying on the origin country to check for the virus.

    Is this because it would be racist to target travellers from West Africa?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?
    I should have been clearer.

    When it comes to the NHS, Labour supporters do get energised by their own party on this, and other parties don't energise them in the same way.

    Particularly as the question mentions reversing the coalition's changes on the NHS.

    But I understand your viewpoint.Oh, I think I get it now. So you're saying that their fervour on the NHS is such that it's something Cameron can never connect to?

    And a sign of that fervour is the contrast between the number of Labour voters who think the NHS policies will be a vote-winner, compared to the electorate as a whole - which is less impressed.

    Whereas it is notable that current Labour voters are not more likely to think that the mansion tax is a vote winner - even though they are probably more likely to be in favour of it personally.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?

    Of it's a defensive play: to prevent any Con voters for whom the NHS is particularly important from defecting.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''As always, any taxational challenge to the wealthy will be fiercely opposed by said wealthy but that doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.''

    Wrong, it will be fiercely opposed by the middle classes.

    Because the middle classes know that fancy left wing plans to target 'the rich' never succeed in their aim.

    The middle classes always end up paying. Income tax, stamp duty, you name it. The middle class is footing the bill.

    This is why any more schemes to target 'the rich' are viewed with massive skepticism, as the above graphic illustrates only too well.
  • ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?
    I should have been clearer.

    When it comes to the NHS, Labour supporters do get energised by their own party on this, and other parties don't energise them in the same way.

    Particularly as the question mentions reversing the coalition's changes on the NHS.

    But I understand your viewpoint.
    Oh, I think I get it now. So you're saying that their fervour on the NHS is such that it's something Cameron can never connect to?

    And a sign of that fervour is the contrast between the number of Labour voters who think the NHS policies will be a vote-winner, compared to the electorate as a whole - which is less impressed.

    Whereas it is notable that current Labour voters are not more likely to think that the mansion tax is a vote winner - even though they are probably more likely to be in favour of it personally.

    You've put it more elegantly than I ever could.

    Each parties supporters all have their favourite topics. For Labour supporters it is the NHS.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Weird question.

    YouGov are asking the public a question on which they are entirely inexpert.

    Why not just ask them what policies they themselves like?

    Being expert doesn't prevent you having an opinion.

    As many on here prove day after day...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    For Labour supporters it is the NHS.

    It used to be. Now we can mention the NHS in Wales, at which point the said labour supporter makes a face like a slapped ar$e.
  • UKPR have today updated their averaging of the polls up to Sun/YouGov's of 8 Oct. Its revised figures (with last week's in brackets) are:
    Con 32 (31), Lab 34 (36), LD 8 (8)
    As a consequence, it is showing Labour now winning 331 seats, down 23 seats compared with last week, with a majority therefore of 12 seats compared with 58 seats previously.
    Doubtless this updated averaging of the polls will form the basis of Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection, due to be published tomorrow morning.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Charles said:

    Weird question.

    YouGov are asking the public a question on which they are entirely inexpert.

    Why not just ask them what policies they themselves like?

    Being expert doesn't prevent you having an opinion.

    As many on here prove day after day...
    Indeed - although arguably what we have are prejudices. Striking through those with reason is the tricky part of politics.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:



    Punative - but easier to calculate and collect than Labour's mansion tax.

    And easier to avoid too.
  • Does anyone have any moles on the ground in Clacton or Heywood? We need to know if turnout is "brisk" or not
  • Itajai

    From that lousy question we can't tell whether they are popular or not!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    UKPR polling average updated:

    Lab 34%
    Con 32%
    UKIP 15%
    LD 8%
    Green 5%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

    Edit: just seen that peter_from_putney posted this a few comments below.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Don't understand why Lego didn't tell Greenpeace to go fcuk themselves over the Shell contract.
  • Are you predicting another McTory surge Easterross?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Don't understand why Lego didn't tell Greenpeace to go fcuk themselves over the Shell contract.

    Me neither - fake charity obsessed by fake science.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    taffys said:

    ''As always, any taxational challenge to the wealthy will be fiercely opposed by said wealthy but that doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.''

    Wrong, it will be fiercely opposed by the middle classes.

    Because the middle classes know that fancy left wing plans to target 'the rich' never succeed in their aim.

    The middle classes always end up paying. Income tax, stamp duty, you name it. The middle class is footing the bill.

    This is why any more schemes to target 'the rich' are viewed with massive skepticism, as the above graphic illustrates only too well.

    As usual, completely wrong. Here's another take on the politics of wealth:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/john-kampfner-is-any-party-brave-enough-to-tackle-the-superrich-9782174.html

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Seriously? That is whoppingly high. Is that really true? If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    When will it come fully into effect?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    UKPR have today updated their averaging of the polls up to Sun/YouGov's of 8 Oct. Its revised figures (with last week's in brackets) are:
    Con 32 (31), Lab 34 (36), LD 8 (8)
    As a consequence, it is showing Labour now winning 331 seats, down 23 seats compared with last week, with a majority therefore of 12 seats compared with 58 seats previously.
    Doubtless this updated averaging of the polls will form the basis of Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection, due to be published tomorrow morning.

    Fisher said at the bottom of his forecast last week that he wasn't going to use the UKPR average any more.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited October 2014

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    10% above 250k???!!! That's insane. Any middle class person who needs to move house is going to get badly screwed. Tory revival nailed on (but not sure how big). IMHO the Nats have overreached. Even Scotland isn't that commie.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Patrick said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    10% above 250k???!!! That's insane. Any middle class person who needs to move house is going to get badly screwed. Tory revival nailed on (but not sure how big). IMHO the Nits have overreached. Even Scotland isn't that commie.
    Most homes are worth £180K or less, so it's going to make little difference to your average Jock.

    Imagine how bad things could have been in an independent Scotland though - good job they saw sense.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    No.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    On topic: if the election boils down to a choice between the NHS/cost of living for Labour and the long-term economic plan of the Tories, these don't like look like winning numbers for Miliband.
    Even if the ground fought over is his favourite topic.

    That's before leadership ratings are taken into account, of course. Still plenty of time for black swans, but it almost feels like the real fight now is between the Tories and UKIP.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    As usual, completely wrong. Here's another take on the politics of wealth:

    What a rubbish, lazy article.

    The kampfner approach is being tried in France, with predictable results for its economy.

    Indeed, its going so well they are now ditching it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    10% tax for a £250k house is crazy. It's just going to stop people from moving, to the detriment of the overall economy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Neil said:

    If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    No.
    That's helpful. Care to explain how the tax works?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Seriously? That is whoppingly high. Is that really true? If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    When will it come fully into effect?
    No, it's different to stamp duty. It's only levied on the amount above the threshold. That means the rates have to be higher to raise the same amount of tax, but it means you don't have the ridiculous jump in tax paid at the threshold values.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    The average Scottish house price is £162000. The average Edinburgh house price (which is the most expensive area in the country) is £229,253.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Seriously? That is whoppingly high. Is that really true? If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    When will it come fully into effect?
    No. Its marginal:

    Example: LBTT is charged at the appropriate rate on the amount of the chargeable consideration within each band. Therefore, LBTT on a house bought for £275,000 is charged at:



    0% for the first £135,000, then

    2% for the next £115,000 and

    10% for the remaining £25,000

    So £4,800 must be paid in LBTT.


    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators

    Its good that Scotland is trying out different approaches - the ones that work can be tried in the rest of the UK.
  • Patrick said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    10% above 250k???!!! That's insane. Any middle class person who needs to move house is going to get badly screwed. Tory revival nailed on (but not sure how big). IMHO the Nits have overreached. Even Scotland isn't that commie.
    Most homes are worth £180K or less, so it's going to make little difference to your average Jock.

    Imagine how bad things could have been in an independent Scotland though - good job they saw sense.
    Will drive the wealthy, financial services, entrepreneurs etc away to some degree. Will damage the Scottish property market (no doubt putting some into negative equity). All round a shitty bad idea and bad for Scotland.

    (A YES would have seen a pretty much bankrupt Scotland in short order because of currency issue - SNP insanity would have been mere icing on that cake).
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Seriously? That is whoppingly high. Is that really true? If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    When will it come fully into effect?
    No. Its marginal:

    Example: LBTT is charged at the appropriate rate on the amount of the chargeable consideration within each band. Therefore, LBTT on a house bought for £275,000 is charged at:



    0% for the first £135,000, then

    2% for the next £115,000 and

    10% for the remaining £25,000

    So £4,800 must be paid in LBTT.


    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators

    Its good that Scotland is trying out different approaches - the ones that work can be tried in the rest of the UK.
    Just like the Poll Tax.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Ah, it's banded - much more sensible:

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators

    Still seems high. I'd have thought 5% on 250-500k and then 7% above that would be more fair.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Seriously? That is whoppingly high. Is that really true? If I buy a £260k flat in Edinburgh I have to pay £26k tax?

    When will it come fully into effect?
    Wouldn't you only pay the top rate on the amount above the threshold
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    To be honest, I've never supported the Mansion Tax even though Vince Cable and many in the LDs thought it a good idea. It's a weak and lazy solution to a much bigger problem.

    There is an urgent need to review the Council Tax bands in the light of property price movements since 1993 - I don't mind if that means adding two or three extra bands at the higher end if need be and extending the range of the current bands. There may even be an argument for regionalising the bands to take account of cost variations across the country but all that can be cone if there's the will to do so.

    The problem is that while many in low-cost housing stand to gain through a downward movement in their banding, the wealthy (and £350k for a house isn't that much in many parts of southern England) would almost certainly lose out if new bands were created.

    As always, any taxational challenge to the wealthy will be fiercely opposed by said wealthy but that doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.

    Isn't regionalisation inherent in the amount of council tax each council sets to bring in?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    The average Scottish house price is £162000. The average Edinburgh house price (which is the most expensive area in the country) is £229,253.

    An average city centre property is £262000.

    Under stamp duty the tax would be £7860
    Under the new rates it's £3500

    It's tiered progressive system not a "whole value" system like stamp duty.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    I dislike the question. It's asking people to guess the impact of a policy on other people's voting intentions. Not quite as bad as a psychological 'study' which assessed the driving style of African lorry drivers by getting people who weren't African lorry drivers to imagine they were, but still.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Even if they lose, ISIS will likewise have lost an awful lot of men, energy and materiel.

    It may sound harsh to say this, but the coalition have a bit of a rat trap going in Kobane, with the brave, noble kurds as the bait.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited October 2014
    I think Scotland are stretching the definition of a "progressive" tax:

    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    What they mean: you can buy a property up to the value of £250,000. After that we'll hammer you with tax (on the extra price) so it isn't worth you buying (unless you are super-rich).

    Very communist.
  • You're very patient Neil.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It will avoid the 'step functions' of Stamp Duty - and only a tiny (but no doubt noisy) number of purchasers will be affected:

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0045/00450762-910.jpg
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    ...if the NHS is so important to Labour voters, his positioning on the NHS may not yield many Lab to Con switchers.
    Do you really mean "not" here? Surely it would potentially yield many Lab to Con switchers, if he could convince them that he was genuine?
    I should have been clearer.

    When it comes to the NHS, Labour supporters do get energised by their own party on this, and other parties don't energise them in the same way.

    Particularly as the question mentions reversing the coalition's changes on the NHS.

    But I understand your viewpoint.
    Oh, I think I get it now. So you're saying that their fervour on the NHS is such that it's something Cameron can never connect to?

    And a sign of that fervour is the contrast between the number of Labour voters who think the NHS policies will be a vote-winner, compared to the electorate as a whole - which is less impressed.

    Whereas it is notable that current Labour voters are not more likely to think that the mansion tax is a vote winner - even though they are probably more likely to be in favour of it personally.
    You've put it more elegantly than I ever could.

    Each parties supporters all have their favourite topics. For Labour supporters it is the NHS.

    Would Labour's supportes favour the NHS if they were paying £1400 per person in compulsory insurance (by employees and employers) as in France? Wheras we spend £970. And that through taxation and of course borrowing - which labour look on as free money.
    In other words the French spend half as much again. Stand up the people who want to spend that. Lets remember that the 'per person' included lots of non workers so the cost to you would be more, and there are lots of employers who would think twice about taking on a new worker when faced with the added insurance overheads.

    Labour supporters want something for nothing and are happy in their prejudice.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The new Scottish land tax will make the old game of "how big a Scottish castle would my 1 bedroom ex-council flat in Peckham buy?" even more fun.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    You're very patient Neil.

    I have a lot to be patient about.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2014

    I think Scotland are stretching the definition of a "progressive" tax:


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    What they mean: you can buy a property up to the value of £250,000. After that we'll hammer you with tax (on the extra price) so it isn't worth you buying (unless you are super-rich).

    Very communist.
    Someone selling a £300,000 house is better off under this system.

    The breakeven point is a fraction north of £320000.
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    To be honest, I've never supported the Mansion Tax even though Vince Cable and many in the LDs thought it a good idea. It's a weak and lazy solution to a much bigger problem.

    There is an urgent need to review the Council Tax bands in the light of property price movements since 1993 - I don't mind if that means adding two or three extra bands at the higher end if need be and extending the range of the current bands. There may even be an argument for regionalising the bands to take account of cost variations across the country but all that can be cone if there's the will to do so.

    The problem is that while many in low-cost housing stand to gain through a downward movement in their banding, the wealthy (and £350k for a house isn't that much in many parts of southern England) would almost certainly lose out if new bands were created.

    As always, any taxational challenge to the wealthy will be fiercely opposed by said wealthy but that doesn't make it the wrong thing to do.

    Labour were planning to redo the bands in England and then cancelled it. They did it in Wales and a third of homes went up a band.

    The only way you can do it without too many losers is if you brought in some measure to cut council tax at the same time.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators
    LOL @ "The Scottish Government has developed a tax calculator" linking to an Excel sheet that could be knocked up in under 10 minutes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Alistair said:

    I think Scotland are stretching the definition of a "progressive" tax:


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    What they mean: you can buy a property up to the value of £250,000. After that we'll hammer you with tax (on the extra price) so it isn't worth you buying (unless you are super-rich).

    Very communist.
    Someone selling a £300,000 house is better off under this system.

    The breakeven point is a fraction north of £320000.
    Seems fair enough.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    taffys said:

    For Labour supporters it is the NHS.

    It used to be. Now we can mention the NHS in Wales, at which point the said labour supporter makes a face like a slapped ar$e.

    If either you or an immediate family member had recently had world class emergency surgery in Wales NHS you would be wearing a broad smile, just like I am at the minute.
    Incidentally the brilliant, charming consultant was Eastern European.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    I must say, I am surprised at the 12%. 20% would seem to fit better.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators
    LOL @ "The Scottish Government has developed a tax calculator" linking to an Excel sheet that could be knocked up in under 10 minutes.
    Well if it gives the right answer !
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators
    LOL @ "The Scottish Government has developed a tax calculator" linking to an Excel sheet that could be knocked up in under 10 minutes.
    It seems to do the job.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Break even point is £324,285
  • Artist said:

    UKPR have today updated their averaging of the polls up to Sun/YouGov's of 8 Oct. Its revised figures (with last week's in brackets) are:
    Con 32 (31), Lab 34 (36), LD 8 (8)
    As a consequence, it is showing Labour now winning 331 seats, down 23 seats compared with last week, with a majority therefore of 12 seats compared with 58 seats previously.
    Doubtless this updated averaging of the polls will form the basis of Stephen Fisher's latest GE Seats projection, due to be published tomorrow morning.

    Fisher said at the bottom of his forecast last week that he wasn't going to use the UKPR average any more.
    I missed that Artist, but I have to say that news doesn't surprise me - a couple of weeks ago UKPR hadn't updated its data for 10 days or more iirc and therefore Fisher had no option other than to leave his forecast unchanged, despite conspicuous movements in the polls.
    I just can't understand it - in this age of computers, surely it's simplicity itself to update their polling average on a daily basis.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators
    LOL @ "The Scottish Government has developed a tax calculator" linking to an Excel sheet that could be knocked up in under 10 minutes.
    You rude person.

    The Scottish CiviI Service has been working very hard to win the Independence Neverendum.

    The Sovereign WiII of the Scottish PeopIe has been expressed but they got it wrong so the SNP isn't going to be bound by its promise to Iisten.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    I must say, I am surprised at the 12%. 20% would seem to fit better.
    Stated design goal was to be revenue neutral to current stamp duty. I suspect it will be slightly tax positive as there will no longer be the big artificial spike at the selling price of £250,000
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Neil said:


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    The SNP has this afternoon introduced a new Land Tax in Scotland to replace Stamp Duty. It has 4 bands and above £250k it is 10%. That should go down with most house purchasers like a bag of sick. They have also cut health spending I believe from what I am seeing on Twitter!!

    Is it 10% on the amount above 250k or the whole cost ?
    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/Finance/scottishapproach/lbtt/lbtttaxcalculators
    LOL @ "The Scottish Government has developed a tax calculator" linking to an Excel sheet that could be knocked up in under 10 minutes.
    It seems to do the job.

    Yes, it does. I was just mocking the "developed".

    It's a pity [though understandable] that, having decided to reform the system, the Scottish Government have decided to maintain the penalisation of mobility that Stamp Duty represents.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    break even might be 320k but you rapidly start to pay a lot more above that very quickly.

    From a Labour copying point of view it wouldn't raise much as transactions are small - back to the drawing board.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Alistair said:


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    I must say, I am surprised at the 12%. 20% would seem to fit better.
    Stated design goal was to be revenue neutral to current stamp duty. I suspect it will be slightly tax positive as there will no longer be the big artificial spike at the selling price of £250,000
    Presumably the unstated design goal was to create lots of small winners and a few big losers.

    I much prefer the marginal rate approach though.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    £250k property in England = £2,500 tax
    £250k property in Scotland = £2,300 tax

    £500k property in England = £15,000 tax
    £500k property in Scotland = £27,300 tax

    £2 million property in England = £100,000 tax
    £2 million property in Scotland = £197,300 tax
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Alistair said:


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    I must say, I am surprised at the 12%. 20% would seem to fit better.
    Stated design goal was to be revenue neutral to current stamp duty. I suspect it will be slightly tax positive as there will no longer be the big artificial spike at the selling price of £250,000
    In the English/Welsh system is the following the case:

    Value - Tax

    £124,999 £0
    £125,000 £1250
    £250,000 £2500
    £250,001 £7500.03

    Is that correct ?

    Genuine question.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Incidentally the brilliant, charming consultant was Eastern European

    Good for you, I sincerely hope you're feeling better.

    Perhaps labour should pitch to run the health service of the people of England based on its record in Wales, then.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    I must say, I am surprised at the 12%. 20% would seem to fit better.
    Stated design goal was to be revenue neutral to current stamp duty. I suspect it will be slightly tax positive as there will no longer be the big artificial spike at the selling price of £250,000
    In the English/Welsh system is the following the case:

    Value - Tax

    £124,999 £0
    £125,000 £1250
    £250,000 £2500
    £250,001 £7500.03

    Is that correct ?

    Genuine question.
    Yes it is, which is crazy, but there you are.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    chestnut said:

    £250k property in England = £2,500 tax
    £250k property in Scotland = £2,300 tax

    £250,001 property in England = £7,500 tax

    The exact figures for the marginal rates are open to debate - moving to a marginal system just seems like a no brainer though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Alistair said:


    Stated design goal was to be revenue neutral to current stamp duty. I suspect it will be slightly tax positive as there will no longer be the big artificial spike at the selling price of £250,000

    It wiII very rapidIy become very revenue positive if threshoIds do not rise with prices.

    >Socrates
    >Allegations of the authorities covering up child abuse in Jersey:
    >http://tompride.wordpress.com/2014/10/09/child-abuse-cover-up-witness-statements-sent-by-unregistered-post-and-opened/

    ConspiraIoons R Us. Do they reaIIy think that a reaI spy wouIdn't pack it back up?


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:


    Purchase price LBTT rate

    Up to £135,000 0%
    Above £135,000 to £250,000 2%
    Above £250,000 to £1,000,000 10%
    Above £1,000,000 12%
    I must say, I am surprised at the 12%. 20% would seem to fit better.
    Stated design goal was to be revenue neutral to current stamp duty. I suspect it will be slightly tax positive as there will no longer be the big artificial spike at the selling price of £250,000
    In the English/Welsh system is the following the case:

    Value - Tax

    £124,999 £0
    £125,000 £1250
    £250,000 £2500
    £250,001 £7500.03

    Is that correct ?

    Genuine question.
    Yup, which explains the big spike in the property selling price graph at £250,000 and the prevalence of "Fixtures and Fittings" deals in the past
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    If England had the Scottish system - perhaps with lower marginal rates at the top end to reflect the slightly more centre-right general political position, and Scotland wanted to adopt a system with pretty much infinite gradations at £125k and £250k they'd be laughed out of court.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    chestnut said:

    £250k property in England = £2,500 tax
    £250k property in Scotland = £2,300 tax

    £500k property in England = £15,000 tax
    £500k property in Scotland = £27,300 tax

    £2 million property in England = £100,000 tax
    £2 million property in Scotland = £197,300 tax

    That 500k figure is nasty...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Itajai said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    I wonder how many other people had a nasty shock when they heard the news today that, instead of checking people for ebola when they arrive in the UK, we're apparently relying on the origin country to check for the virus.

    Is this because it would be racist to target travellers from West Africa?
    It's happening here - travelers from the infected countries are to be questioned on arrival and have their temperature checked. The man who died in Dallas would not have been caught by this. It's more for PR and to calm the masses.

    In a poll out yesterday 58% want flights stopped to and from West Africa.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited October 2014
    Stamp Duty (or the new Scottish equivalent) is a very arbitrary tax, which penalises labour (and social) mobility. It does have the advantage of mostly being difficult to avoid and easy to calculate and collect.

    For interest, Stamp Duty rates in 1997:

    Up to £60,000 - 0%
    Over £60,000 - 1%

    http://www.stampdutyrates.co.uk/historic-rates.html

    Note the subsequent raising of rates combined with the non-raising of thresholds (apart from the lowest one).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    If England had the Scottish system - perhaps with lower marginal rates at the top end to reflect the slightly more centre-right general political position, and Scotland wanted to adopt a system with pretty much infinite gradations at £125k and £250k they'd be laughed out of court.

    The marginal system is better - probably not one for a pre election budget. Might be one for the LD manifesto though ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    chestnut said:

    £250k property in England = £2,500 tax
    £250k property in Scotland = £2,300 tax

    £500k property in England = £15,000 tax
    £500k property in Scotland = £27,300 tax

    £2 million property in England = £100,000 tax
    £2 million property in Scotland = £197,300 tax

    If they tried that in England, there would be screaming throughout the entirety of the south.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Pulpstar said:

    If England had the Scottish system - perhaps with lower marginal rates at the top end to reflect the slightly more centre-right general political position, and Scotland wanted to adopt a system with pretty much infinite gradations at £125k and £250k they'd be laughed out of court.

    It used to be just 1% over £60,000. When Labour introduced more property tax in 1997, they created the rather strange system we have today.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2014


    If they tried that in England, there would be screaming throughout the entirety of the south.

    It could, at the margins, influence cross border home-buying activity.

    If you lived slap bang along the line of the Scottish/English border, there is certainly a tax incentive to buy in Scotland at £251,000 rather than England at the same price. Meanwhile, if you're relatively loaded, the tax incentive is to buy in England.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    If England had the Scottish system - perhaps with lower marginal rates at the top end to reflect the slightly more centre-right general political position, and Scotland wanted to adopt a system with pretty much infinite gradations at £125k and £250k they'd be laughed out of court.

    It used to be just 1% over £60,000. When Labour introduced more property tax in 1997, they created the rather strange system we have today.
    It is a very strange system indeed - imagine if it was done that way with wages. Suddenly your pay rise would become a rather hefty pay cut !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    chestnut said:

    £250k property in England = £2,500 tax
    £250k property in Scotland = £2,300 tax

    £500k property in England = £15,000 tax
    £500k property in Scotland = £27,300 tax

    £2 million property in England = £100,000 tax
    £2 million property in Scotland = £197,300 tax

    If they tried that in England, there would be screaming throughout the entirety of the south.
    Indeed - LDs/Lab should be offering this - it's socialist !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    chestnut said:

    £250k property in England = £2,500 tax
    £250k property in Scotland = £2,300 tax

    £500k property in England = £15,000 tax
    £500k property in Scotland = £27,300 tax

    £2 million property in England = £100,000 tax
    £2 million property in Scotland = £197,300 tax

    That 500k figure is nasty...
    From 15k to 20k when you step over the threshold from £500000 to £500001. Still considerably cheaper to doing so in Scotland.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I'm quite surprise at the house prices being mentioned.

    I sold a fairly standard 4 bedroom 3 bath home in rural North Yorkshire - next to a farm - for 390,000 pounds 9 years ago.

    Has the market crashed since that badly?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,000
    sarissa Posts: 74
    4:48PM

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    » show previous quotes
    Indeed. No one has ever been given the title Malleus Londinium either

    You can't hammer a sponge!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm hoping turnout in Clacton is "brisk" since I've got a bet on it being higher than the general election (64.2%).
This discussion has been closed.