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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are manufactured public spats in both coalition partners’ interest?
I’ve always been optimistic on the Lib Dems doing well in 2015, and the Ashcroft marginals polling in the past shows them doing better in the seats they hold than the national polling would suggest.
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For whatever reason, swing voters just don't seem to consider the LDs. They move around between the other parties, but only away from the LDs.
...whale shit...
...5% in a major poll...
It is really hard to see how they can put out a message that will get significant public support.
They have lost the trust of many, many people - on all sides of the political divide. They started with the tuition fees issue (though their u-turn on this is remarkably similar to the 1997/8 Labour u-turn on the same issue) and continued through the constitutional and electoral changes that they were going to approve and then changed their minds.
Add in to this their inability to deal with Rennard and Hancock in a meaningful way and the problems of anti-semitism in the party, and you have a pretty difficult job to try to regain broad support.
Changing leader won't help.
I think they have to prepare to suck up a massive defeat, rethink, regroup and rebuild from there.
Given Labour have declared themselves in favour of the ECHR I'd guess they'd be the party of choice of impoverished human rights lawyers and EU-philes rather than the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems may benefit, still, from anti-Conservative tactical voting. In fact, this could be more than expected. Easy to imagine Labour voters looking at Ed Miliband and deciding 'voting tactically' is good for Labour and means they don't have to actually back him.
Oasis lyrics are pretty nonsensical -but fantastic songs imo nonetheless.
US labour force participation rate - 61.8%
Implied US absolute employment rate 56.1% vs 73% for the UK.
Don't mind me if I go all SeanT for a moment and declare the death of the US economy.
At least with the Greens ,UKIP and SNP you know they will not win outright but have a good idea who they will support if kingmakers
Eck won't look forward to his next trip to Spain.
'Only happy when it rains' is an upbeat tune, with gloomy lyrics. I like it!
These are misguided simplistic Tory circles. The real truth is that the Conservatives should not want these folk to return to the Lib Dems but instead leave Labour and vote for someone else. lots of options, all better than where they now are.
Vote SNP in Scotland, Vote Plaid in Wales, Vote Greens, Vote UKIP (except on the south coast) and Vote Conservative!
The previous Lib Dem vote has been comprised of a large chunk of voters who are protesting or not strongly aligned to any party. Called Floaters. Let them float somewhere else. It is for the alternatives (to Lab & LD) to attract them.
Mikkil @MikkiL 5h5 hours ago
Nick Clegg has undone 50 years of Liberal recovery via @Telegraph http://fw.to/2LSIOB
NB In the distinctly unlikely position that UKIP are true kingmakers, they will probably support Labour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29480613
I'm not sure this counts as a 'spat', though. It's a genuine difference of opinion on a fundamental issue. The two parties hold different views, which is kinda the point of political parties. (Labour are irrelevant on the issue, as you'd expect).
twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/517224839292395520
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckCsw_JyJI
Was used on an MGS5 trailer, but the lyrics could be a diehard voter talking about a different party.
I truly believe that if UKIP could get all their policy aims enacted by the current Government, they wouldn't bother. You couldn't say that about the Lib Dems. They're in it totally for themselves.
Changing the voting system and H of L reform, look like schemes for job creation for LD boys and girls, but is the public bothered about constitutional issues? Clegg has pushed harder for a higher personal allowances, and more free school meals. But being pro Europe when the place has become a stagnant economic basket case is not a winning formula.
youtube.com/watch?v=vVXwVc4BGjo
And here's the effortlessly superior jazz treatment from Madeleine Peyroux.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YT9EXNhV-gk
It's like 'not bad' followed by 'sublime'.
Carole King is another one who just about everyone covers her songs better than she does.
http://youtu.be/rC__5_3dK7Q
Meanwhile US corporations are using Asian factories to produce consumer goods that US and other countries consumers want to buy. Surely it makes sense for the US government to incentivise manufacturing to come back to the US, so they can provide work, earn more tax income etc.
Oh, wait......
But there's also a vague NOTA/centrist type. They don't really like UKIP as they perceive them as being too extreme and too noisy, and they think Tories and Labour a bit unattractive. They aren't very political so they currently say "don't know", but a portion will drift back to the LibDems next year. They quite like the other parties attacking the LibDems as it makes them seem relevant. I'd guess the national share will nudge 10%.
If you give business a minimum data point, they will use it to benchmark, compare and justify.
Uplifting boppy music is a real favourite of mine. The sort you can dance about the garden to. Or zoom around with the hoover.
I've even stuck RT on my Tv as a sign of protest.
You are backing your argument that Bob Dylan is an overrated musician with the music he wrote for 'Blood on the Tracks'?
Or the Kinks's Sunny Afternoon "Taxman's taken all my dough, And left me in my stately home; lazing on a sunny afternoon. And I can't sell my yacht; he's taken everything thing I've got; all I've got's this sunny afternoon"
@Luckyguy1983
For creepy try the Beautiful South: Should Of Kept My Eyes Shut or Woman In the Wall
I do! Thanks, I may well youtube at some point, memory permitting.
15% ??????????????
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPDjcVa1vG8
Mr. P, can't see both Con and Lab doing so poorly, and would be a bit surprised if UKIP did that well.
If you like upbeat stuff - Fitz and The Tantrums [The Walker]/Foster The People [Helena Beat] have some good stuff.
I think the singer in Garbage has an excellent voice - don't like much of their stuff.
If the two coalition parties have accidentally-on-purpose decided to coordinate here - good.
No Of General Elections In 2015
Applies to the total number of UK general elections held in 2015.
One 1/25 Two or more 8/1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics/Number-Of-General-Elections-In-2015-7705135.html
I've been of the view for a few years that the reason why the global economy is so broken is that big capital have simply bought all the relevant parties in the big economies. Obama is Bush. Hollande ran on a socialist platform then implemented austerity anyway. Blair implemented Thatcherism. Clegg implemented Thatcherism. And of these Obama and Clegg are the big giveaways, politicians whose lies are so egregious as to demonstrate that there is a wider agenda. And Clegg got caught by the public and progressively throttled.
That his party are so cowardly as to leave him in place is fitting justice. When the leader goes insane, dump them. Thatcher went, the Tories won. Brown didn't, Labour lost. Clegg didn't, the LibDems headed down Asterisk Alley......
I remember the back streets of Naples
Two children begging in rags
Both touched with a burning ambition
To shake off their lowly-borne tags,
So look into my face Marie-Claire
And remember just who you are
Then go and forget me forever
But I know you still bear
the scar, deep inside, yes you do
The guy who runs the soundtracks for The CW is quite brilliant and has dozens of recommendations on Twitter - I could spend days just catching up with him. https://twitter.com/cmollere
You can see all the tracks used season by season here. It's enormous. I've got about 230 tracks as a direct result. Every genre you can think of is in there. There's a bias to alternative/indie/club/rock/ballards - with a load of other random stuff. They're used Garbage/Florence + The Machine a couple of times.
This is typical S1 tvshowmusic.com/shows/vampire-diaries-music-season-1
If Bob Worcester is right, and UKIP and the Lib Dems end up switching levels of support (UKIP on 7%, Lib Dems on 1%) then I imagine the Conservatives would win an overall majority.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3b5GftGVws
If you are of a left inclination and voted Libdem when Blair and Brown were in power but were disgusted when they got into bed with the Tories why would you go back? Miliband will be eminently better than Cameron despite all his shortcomings in their eyes and there is no guarantee that if the Tories get back in power again that the Libdems won't climb straight back into bed with them. By voting Labour such voters would come much closer to fulfilling their wishes and with Labour on course for Downing Street it really is a no brainer in order to get the Tories out.
For those otherwise disappointed with the Coalition/Tories because they are just another establishment party then UKIP is now the party to vote for. It is UKIP who are making all the noises that the Tories and Libdems made before 2010 (granted the Tories are making half-hearted noises along the same line)
Lastly there will be those who are relatively satisfied with the coalition but not fussed between the Libdems and Tories. Yet except where the Libdems can win, those votes are better directly given to the Tories.
There will even be those core Libdems voters who will see the best way to serve their party is to vote Tory in the hope of another coalition (vote Tory get Libdem)
Add to that that the Libdems poll figures have collapsed, they do not have a distinctive enticing message other than 'We're not the Tories (not even wets - honest)' and they are late to the tax cuts festival (given that UKIP and the Tories have already claimed the best spots) and I can see no reason to vote for them. Even the HRA angle mentioned above will have little traction simply because its Labour-lite and Labour owns that ground.
PS And I've not even considered the Greens and potential crossover.
The Fray's Love Don't Die They've had wider success than most.
Except outflank Labour by promising spending on some nice stuff, instead of tax cuts that mainly benefit the well off.
See how that "cashing in economic credibility" thing works out for the Coalition teaboys.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/03/welsh-valleys-austerity-radical-past
Curiously, both authors are now living in London.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOQXkAmBm4Q
I do love Mercedez-Benz though. Super lyrics.
The public are fed up with seeing the provisions of the HRA being used contrary to what feels like natural justice.
The only people to really benefit from the HRA are the lawyers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29442059
No members of the 6% on today ?
Arf - Love the way everyone talks about their favorite music tracks, instead of answering...
Here's mind - ELO rockaria
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tJNABQnqBo
Lib Dem members are doing what they believe is best for the country regardless of the damage to support from voters who think that there is a political option which leads to milk and honey without any pain.
All parties have made promises in the past about increasing spending on government services whilst reducing taxation. So voters have been led to expect that this is possible. Now any party which promises reduced spending and increased taxation does not get elected.
Consequently when political parties get into power they face the reality of cutting spending and increasing taxation. Hence Lib Dems backed down on their tuition fees pledge and Conservatives reversed their promise not to increase VAT. In practice the tuition fee solution of effectively a graduate tax is a fair solution and the VAT rise is modest in the circumstances.
Who'd be a politician?
Just a combination of Comical Bank and MannyHanny that bought the JP brand name
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_Bank
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturers_Hanover_Corporation
But I hope they can hold Berwick!
That's more dream/acid pop, but I do like it a lot.
Disgraceful is probably one of their better known ones.
Laurel is pretty good for alt-indie female vocals. Firebreather.
And Anya Marina is excellent if you like breathy soul/R&B/amusing. All The Same To Me
Chase bought everyone up, not the other way round, they decided on the name J P Morgan Chase and Co, they thought the name J P Morgan had more cachet. (Hollow laughter),
And it is things like that which will be at the forefront of the moves to reform the way Human Rights legislation is implemented in the UK.
Making the Supreme Court and UK Parliament the sovereign bodies on these matters feels like the right move to me.
If people decide to keep their LD MP then the national %age of the LD vote might not be as important.
If people decide to vote against the UKIP insurgent by voting for the party best suited to beat them, then UKIP's national %age of vote may not be relevant. In various constituencies the 3rd place-er in 2010 might get its vote squeezed.
How valid is Universal Swing
As an example take Morley and Outwood. Ed Balls' charisma (and some LD switchers) might see him home, but he has had 5 years out of office and done little to justify his reputation in that time (and surely any Labourish inclined LDs would have voted for him anyway) . If the anti labour voters determine to be rid of him they may well coalesce around the Tories.
Sensible Tories know it's insane, as Ken Clarke articulated today.
If you like her style - you could try Ladyhawke - Girl Like Me or Amy Stroup Falling [her album Tunnel is rather good].
And of course Lykke Li - Get Some takes some beating for great drums and interesting lyrics. Super Amazonian video. I've heard that track used at least 3x in different TV shows [a hobby of mine]