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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

Details have been published this afternoon of a Survation phone poll in Scotland carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum defeat. The figures are in the chart above and show shares which I believe have the SNP at a new high in any poll.

Read the full story here

rottenborough

As I said on previous thread, this is grim for Ed M. Could lose a chunk of Scottish MPs at GE.

Morris_Dancer

F1: post-race analysis up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/singapore-post-race-analysis.html

On-topic: if the Conservatives (and perhaps UKIP as well) can hammer home Miliband's contempt for the concept of a fair deal for the English that could harm him seriously south of the border as well.

Itajai

Will REd lose any seats south of the border?
Would not necessarily bet against it.

Carola

Reckon the bumblefest that's followed indyref will further dent the public's faith in all the mainstream parties tbh.

rottenborough

According to Wikipedia, in 2010 GE, in Scotland the party % were:

Labour: 42%
SNP: 20%
Tory: 13%
LibDem: 19%

So today's poll shows a huge swing from Lab and Lib to SNP. The Lib figure is utterly catastrophic, although I guess personal popularity will allow Charles Kennedy to cling on in Highlands.

Do we have a seat forecast based on this poll?

TheScreamingEagles

Is this poll the equivalent of a sympathy shag for the SNP from the Scottish electorate ?

Morris_Dancer

Andrew Neil verbally eviscerates shiny-headed slimeball Chuka Umunna, who is very keen on Scottish devolution but wants to delay it for the English:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFIQFBYlKo8

Neil

rottenborough said:

As I said on previous thread, this is grim for Ed M. Could lose a chunk of Scottish MPs at GE.

It's not that grim for Ed. It shows Labour doing better than in the last election.

OldKingCole

rottenborough said:

According to Wikipedia, in 2010 GE, in Scotland the party % were:

Labour: 42%
SNP: 20%
Tory: 13%
LibDem: 19%

So today's poll shows a huge swing from Lab and Lib to SNP. The Lib figure is utterly catastrophic, although I guess personal popularity will allow Charles Kennedy to cling on in Highlands.

Do we have a seat forecast based on this poll?

Tories pretty well unchanged, though!

rottenborough

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:

According to Wikipedia, in 2010 GE, in Scotland the party % were:

Labour: 42%
SNP: 20%
Tory: 13%
LibDem: 19%

So today's poll shows a huge swing from Lab and Lib to SNP. The Lib figure is utterly catastrophic, although I guess personal popularity will allow Charles Kennedy to cling on in Highlands.

Do we have a seat forecast based on this poll?

Tories pretty well unchanged, though!

Sorry, mis-typed, Tory actually got 16% in GE. But basically pretty unchanged.

Scrapheap_as_was

Lord Sugar‏@Lord_Sugar·2m
Mauricio: "We need to fix it and focus on the next game." ...... I've decided not to learn to pronounce your name you might be gone by Xmas


FPT:

Peter_the_Punter said:
Has Poch learned to speak English yet? Or is he not bothering?

To which I replied:

He's still got the cab running!

Didn't rate him as much as so many pundits when at Saints, players not him from the games I saw, nothing 'game changing' in his tactics or substitutions. Hope I'll be proven wrong but don't expect to be. We could easily lose by 6 next weekend.

Neil

rottenborough said:

So today's poll shows a huge swing from Lab and Lib to SNP.

It's a 1.7% swing from Lab to SNP since the last election.

rottenborough said:

Do we have a seat forecast based on this poll?

It's a Holyrood poll, not a Westminster one.

YBarddCwsc

FPT, PAW

" Does anyone remember the book or the author on academic politics with the "theory of unripe time". Mr Miliband will know, I expect."

It is "Microcosmographia Academica" by F.M. Cornford.

It is full of reasons for not doing things, the Principle of Unripe Time being one of them. Other good methods of obstruction are:

"The present measure would block the way for a far more sweeping reform."

"The machinery for effecting the proposed object already exists."

Neil

Morris_Dancer said:

Andrew Neil verbally eviscerates shiny-headed slimeball Chuka Umunna, who is very keen on Scottish devolution but wants to delay it for the English

Please god dont let Andrew Neil present Newsnight again, he'll ruin it.

Carnyx

Caveat: this is the Holyrood constituency vote, not the Westminster one (as I noted on last thread). However, both are FPTP.

The Westminster vote prediction needs to take into account the NOTA element, which has greatly helped Labour. But the question here is whether the SNP is now a convincing enough bet to be worth voting for rather than Labour if NOTA is a key element. Also -

1. Mr Miliband (LESS popular in Scotland than Mr Cameron), not Mr Brown, is i/c in London.
2. Labour is one of the parties of the tripartite vow whereas the SNP is the sole credible Westminster party to hold them to their promise.
3. Labour have teed off about 35% of their hardcore voters in indyref, the ones who voted yes, and upset an unknown number of others by getting into bed with the Tories.

O the other hand, the Tories might do a bit better than their current state (they might achieve a captive breeding population and more, but could hardly do much worse than one seat they have now).

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Neil, not watched it for ages, but it wasn't great back then either (Paxman far too egotistical). Fun watching Neil slaughter Umunna, though.

Richard_Nabavi

I'm not at all surprised at this. Salmond won the emotional argument hands-down, even if his refusal to face reality on a whole host of crucial issues meant that in the end Scots were not prepared to take the leap. Assuming the SNP don't allow themselves to fall into disunity and recriminations (and I don't think they will), they'll be able to project themselves even more strongly as the party which 'stands up for Scotland'. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour's abject campaign won't have helped their position; somehow they managed to let the SNP make major inroads into their heartlands, where for decades they've been able to rely on the tribal loyalty of their traditional supporters.

GE2010 was notable for no change - not a single seat changed hands. This time round, even though big swings are needed to oust the incumbent party in nearly all Scottish seats, the picture is likely to be different. I expect the SNP to win seats certainly off the LibDems, and probably off Labour as well. Labour may pick up some consolation prizes from the LibDems, but is not going to do well overall. The LibDems are facing meltdown, except in their far-flung traditional Liberal strongholds (and maybe even there). In this zero-sum game, the Scottish Tories - who seem to have campaigned strongly and with some credit - will also advance in vote-share terms, and may well pick up a couple more seats.

Carnyx

Checked the true comparator - the 2011 constituency vote. Wiki says:

SNP 45.4
Labour 31.7
Con 13.9
LD 7.9

Not that much change actually - main effect is squeezing the LDs.

[Edit}: would have thought it hard to predict actual total seats without knowing the list vote and the way in which the mathematics works out.

Roger

"Is this poll the equivalent of a sympathy shag for the SNP from the Scottish electorate ?"

It's what you'd expect. The question is how big will the fall be when the party implodes. Salmond going has delayed things a few weeks but few doubt it's an ex-parrot

CarlottaVance

Carola said:

Reckon the bumblefest that's followed indyref will further dent the public's faith in all the mainstream parties tbh.

They do seem intent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory......

Carnyx

Roger said:

"Is this poll the equivalent of a sympathy shag for the SNP from the Scottish electorate ?"

It's what you'd expect. The question is how big will the fall be when the party implodes. Salmond going has delayed things a few weeks but few doubt it's an ex-parrot

What evidence do you have for that? I'd be very interested to know.

Artist

These figures aren't that much different from the result in 2011.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011

Neil

What's impressive about the poll is that mid-term in a second term in office the SNP are polling at levels that would give them a very good shot at keeping an overall majority. They'd almost certainly stay in Government for a 3rd term if they got this result or close to it in 2016.

Scott_P

Who needs to win a referendum...

@krishgm: Salmond suggesting independence could be via Westminster parliamentary route or Scottish parliament - a Holyrood declaration?!

@schofieldkevin: Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont accuses Alex Salmond of planning a "coup" by claiming independence could happen without a referendum.

At some point I am still hopeful it will dawn on the Yessers that they lost. Comprehensively.

Eh_ehm_a_eh

Carnyx said:

Caveat: this is the Holyrood constituency vote, not the Westminster one (as I noted on last thread). However, both are FPTP.

The Westminster vote prediction needs to take into account the NOTA element, which has greatly helped Labour. But the question here is whether the SNP is now a convincing enough bet to be worth voting for rather than Labour if NOTA is a key element. Also -

1. Mr Miliband (LESS popular in Scotland than Mr Cameron), not Mr Brown, is i/c in London.
2. Labour is one of the parties of the tripartite vow whereas the SNP is the sole credible Westminster party to hold them to their promise.
3. Labour have teed off about 35% of their hardcore voters in indyref, the ones who voted yes, and upset an unknown number of others by getting into bed with the Tories.

O the other hand, the Tories might do a bit better than their current state (they might achieve a captive breeding population and more, but could hardly do much worse than one seat they have now).

4. Johann Lamont is the female Iain Gray.

isam

Shneur Zalman Odze (@ShneurOdzeUKIP)
21/09/2014 16:17
“@ukipwebmaster: #UKIP up 4 points in latest @Survation poll:
LAB - 33% (-2)
CON - 30% (-1)
UKIP - 23% (+4) wow!
LDEM - 8% (=)
GRN - 3% (=)”

kle4

How can the LD support possibly be so low? It's beyond catastrophic, even if having betrayed everything they've ever supported they should have retained a certain amount of stubborn support, even madmen get more support than that. And it's becoming self fulfilling, as the worse they appear to do, the more their few remaining supporters will consider voting for someone else with a better chance of actually doing something.

Living as I do in a Tory heartland where if you don't support the Tories you vote LD, with Lab and UKIP (for now anyway) nowhere, it's hard to wrap my head around how hated they have become. Disproportionate to their 'crimes' but there doesn't seem a place for them anymore as a national party, they are just a niche party for isolated enclaves.

rottenborough

Just put these poll figures into Electoral Calculus. They predict a massive increase in SNP seats of 37! Labour lose 25. Liberals loss all seats.

Not sure how accurate the Calculus is, but interesting all the same.

Carnyx

Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

Carnyx said:

Caveat: this is the Holyrood constituency vote, not the Westminster one (as I noted on last thread). However, both are FPTP.

The Westminster vote prediction needs to take into account the NOTA element, which has greatly helped Labour. But the question here is whether the SNP is now a convincing enough bet to be worth voting for rather than Labour if NOTA is a key element. Also -

1. Mr Miliband (LESS popular in Scotland than Mr Cameron), not Mr Brown, is i/c in London.
2. Labour is one of the parties of the tripartite vow whereas the SNP is the sole credible Westminster party to hold them to their promise.
3. Labour have teed off about 35% of their hardcore voters in indyref, the ones who voted yes, and upset an unknown number of others by getting into bed with the Tories.

O the other hand, the Tories might do a bit better than their current state (they might achieve a captive breeding population and more, but could hardly do much worse than one seat they have now).

4. Johann Lamont is the female Iain Gray.

Aah, I'd forgotten the Subway factor. But what if someone else is volunteered by his/her colleagues? We'll see ...

TCPoliticalBetting

Someone did post yesterday a guess that GE 2015 in Scotland might result in (seats)
SLAB 25, SNP 23, SCON 6 SLD 5.
Looks like that person may have been too optimistic about SLAB?

Also SLDs figures are so bad that 1 or 2 seats is possible.

kle4

THE SNP seem to have a plan for how to present and operate even having lost the referendum, so an implosion seems unlikely, and new heights await.

TheScreamingEagles

Roger said:

"Is this poll the equivalent of a sympathy shag for the SNP from the Scottish electorate ?"

It's what you'd expect. The question is how big will the fall be when the party implodes. Salmond going has delayed things a few weeks but few doubt it's an ex-parrot

You think the Indyref was a tipping point for the SNP?

Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried.

Carnyx

kle4 said:

How can the LD support possibly be so low? It's beyond catastrophic, even if having betrayed everything they've ever supported they should have retained a certain amount of stubborn support, even madmen get more support than that. And it's becoming self fulfilling, as the worse they appear to do, the more their few remaining supporters will consider voting for someone else with a better chance of actually doing something.

Living as I do in a Tory heartland where if you don't support the Tories you vote LD, with Lab and UKIP (for now anyway) nowhere, it's hard to wrap my head around how hated they have become. Disproportionate to their 'crimes' but there doesn't seem a place for them anymore as a national party, they are just a niche party for isolated enclaves.

Is it possibly beause the SLDs went into coalition first with Labour (in Holyrood) and then in Westminster (with the Tories)? They'll have upset just about everyone sooner or later.

Casino_Royale

If the SNP win an absolute majority at Holyrood again in 2016, what's to stop them pitching for yet another referendum in, say, 2019?

Yes, I know they said they wouldn't. But this is politics and if they can find another reason to justify another vote they just might. Westminster could refuse, but that might just play straight into their hands.

Morris_Dancer

Is it the Lib Dems or the Conservative conference next?

I wonder if Clegg might try to get both the English devolution and kick the Tories voters on-side by proposing a despicable regionalisation agenda but opposing real devolution (English votes for English laws or, better, an actual parliament).

Anyway, still got Miliband's big speech.

bigjohnowls

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Someone did post yesterday a guess that GE 2015 in Scotland might result in (seats)
SLAB 25, SNP 23, SCON 6 SLD 5.
Looks like that person may have been too optimistic about SLAB?

Also SLDs figures are so bad that 1 or 2 seats is possible.

Are you up for a bet I think LAB more than 25 MPs at GE2015

£50 at EVS?

TCPoliticalBetting

kle4 said:

How can the LD support possibly be so low? It's beyond catastrophic, even if having betrayed everything they've ever supported they should have retained a certain amount of stubborn support, even madmen get more support than that. And it's becoming self fulfilling, as the worse they appear to do, the more their few remaining supporters will consider voting for someone else with a better chance of actually doing something. Living as I do in a Tory heartland where if you don't support the Tories you vote LD, with Lab and UKIP (for now anyway) nowhere, it's hard to wrap my head around how hated they have become. Disproportionate to their 'crimes' but there doesn't seem a place for them anymore as a national party, they are just a niche party for isolated enclaves.

SLDs are in denial on how bad things are for them.
Why is John Thurso not reselected yet?

Carnyx

Casino_Royale said:

If the SNP win an absolute majority at Holyrood again in 2016, what's to stop them pitching for yet another referendum in, say, 2019?

Yes, I know they said they wouldn't. But this is politics and if they can find another reason to justify another vote they just might. Westminster could refuse, but that might just play straight into their hands.

They didn't say that, did they? Mr S did say he wouldn't be trying again as leader - but that is not the same thing.

TCPoliticalBetting

bigjohnowls said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Someone did post yesterday a guess that GE 2015 in Scotland might result in (seats)
SLAB 25, SNP 23, SCON 6 SLD 5.
Looks like that person may have been too optimistic about SLAB?

Also SLDs figures are so bad that 1 or 2 seats is possible.

Are you up for a bet I think LAB more than 25 MPs at GE2015
£50 at EVS?

Not yet, I would need to model it all. SLAB should pick up some from SLDs.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, I suspect Scots (all the 55% and some of the Yes voters) would be pissed off. They've had nearly three years of continuous campaigning, a very serious vote with massive turnout and a clear margin of victory for one side. If Westminster declined your theoretical second vote that would piss off some of the Salmondesque zealots but an awful lot of No voters and some Yes voters would be relieved not to have all that uncertainty and continuous argument yet again.

However, the Scottish Government might then hold a non-binding vote. The problem for No would then be to campaign and give it more legitimacy, or not to campaign and risk losing it.

Scott_P

Casino_Royale said:

Yes, I know they said they wouldn't.

Eck 'clarified his position' this morning.

When he said the referendum was a 'once in a generation' chance, he meant 'political generation', so as soon as the SNP elect a new leader in November they can go again...

TCPoliticalBetting

Carnyx said:

kle4 said:

How can the LD support possibly be so low? It's beyond catastrophic, even if having betrayed everything they've ever supported they should have retained a certain amount of stubborn support, even madmen get more support than that. And it's becoming self fulfilling, as the worse they appear to do, the more their few remaining supporters will consider voting for someone else with a better chance of actually doing something.

Living as I do in a Tory heartland where if you don't support the Tories you vote LD, with Lab and UKIP (for now anyway) nowhere, it's hard to wrap my head around how hated they have become. Disproportionate to their 'crimes' but there doesn't seem a place for them anymore as a national party, they are just a niche party for isolated enclaves.

Is it possibly beause the SLDs went into coalition first with Labour (in Holyrood) and then in Westminster (with the Tories)? They'll have upset just about everyone sooner or later.

Ironic? The party for coalition sees coalitions destroy it?

rottenborough

Ok, so these poll figures are for Holyrood. I've put in Survations Westminister % into Calculus and Labour keep their 40 MPs, so maybe not the meltdown the Holyrood figures would give. Liberals though disappear.

No_Offence_Alan

kle4 said:

How can the LD support possibly be so low? It's beyond catastrophic, even if having betrayed everything they've ever supported they should have retained a certain amount of stubborn support, even madmen get more support than that. And it's becoming self fulfilling, as the worse they appear to do, the more their few remaining supporters will consider voting for someone else with a better chance of actually doing something.

Living as I do in a Tory heartland where if you don't support the Tories you vote LD, with Lab and UKIP (for now anyway) nowhere, it's hard to wrap my head around how hated they have become. Disproportionate to their 'crimes' but there doesn't seem a place for them anymore as a national party, they are just a niche party for isolated enclaves.

The LDs got 7% in the euro-elections in May 2014, so that's their floor.

Scott_P

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, I suspect Scots (all the 55% and some of the Yes voters) would be pissed off.

The referendum was called at the time of their choosing, with their question, and their preferred franchise.

And they got spanked.

The only way to win would be to make the franchise 14-50 year olds, which they might attempt.

kle4

Can I admit to being a little confused at how a 'Constitutional Convention' is somehow obviously more worthy than some kind of grand Committee? From general talking points there's been stuff about things not being led from the top and being people led and involved discussions and the like, but I presume whatever body draws up recommendations appropriate parties are consulted and people able to comment upon them. It's also not as though anyone other than the kind of saddoes (like many of us on here, myself included) who are interested in constitutional settlements would be involved whichever way you do it, and to the extent any of it filters down to the average person, it will be the simplest and broadest parts alone, which is likely to only be that EV4EL seems reasonable to many people - arguments as to why it is not, or is too difficult, are harder to make stick with people.

So however recommendations are drawn up and proposed, they are approved in the same way and likely come from the same sort of people as normal, meaning the only reason the convention idea is more suitable is it does not have as preposterous a timeline connected to it.

TCPoliticalBetting

Carnyx said:

Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

Carnyx said:

Caveat: this is the Holyrood constituency vote, not the Westminster one (as I noted on last thread). However, both are FPTP.

The Westminster vote prediction needs to take into account the NOTA element, which has greatly helped Labour. But the question here is whether the SNP is now a convincing enough bet to be worth voting for rather than Labour if NOTA is a key element. Also -

1. Mr Miliband (LESS popular in Scotland than Mr Cameron), not Mr Brown, is i/c in London.
2. Labour is one of the parties of the tripartite vow whereas the SNP is the sole credible Westminster party to hold them to their promise.
3. Labour have teed off about 35% of their hardcore voters in indyref, the ones who voted yes, and upset an unknown number of others by getting into bed with the Tories.

O the other hand, the Tories might do a bit better than their current state (they might achieve a captive breeding population and more, but could hardly do much worse than one seat they have now).

4. Johann Lamont is the female Iain Gray.

Aah, I'd forgotten the Subway factor. But what if someone else is volunteered by his/her colleagues? We'll see ...

The choice to replace Lamont with comes down to Brown, Murphy or Darling. None an MSP. By elections anyone? If career opportunities in Westminster look restricted due to English devolution/EV4EL, Murphy may jump sooner as he is younger. Brown and Darling have a third life form of career opening with Scots parliament.

bigjohnowls

TCPoliticalBetting said:

bigjohnowls said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Someone did post yesterday a guess that GE 2015 in Scotland might result in (seats)
SLAB 25, SNP 23, SCON 6 SLD 5.
Looks like that person may have been too optimistic about SLAB?

Also SLDs figures are so bad that 1 or 2 seats is possible.

Are you up for a bet I think LAB more than 25 MPs at GE2015
£50 at EVS?

Not yet, I would need to model it all. SLAB should pick up some from SLDs.

OK I will leave you to do that.

Message me if you want the bet.

Alistair

There is talk of the pro-independence groups, including the SNP, standing in the 2015 GE as a coalition "Scottish Alliance". If that was done competently, keeping the extra voters who turned up for the referendum engaged, the Lib Dems remaining as toxic nationally as they currently seem and the poor Labour voters who voted for independence feelling betrayed by their own party, then it would be perfectly feasible that the Scottish Alliance would end up the 3rd largest party in the UK.

Artist

rottenborough said:

Just put these poll figures into Electoral Calculus. They predict a massive increase in SNP seats of 37! Labour lose 25. Liberals loss all seats.

Not sure how accurate the Calculus is, but interesting all the same.

Putting the Scottish Survation Westminster voting intention into Electoral Calculus gives in seats

Lab 40 (-1) SNP 17 (+11) Con 2 (+1) LD 0 (-11)

kle4

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Carnyx said:

kle4 said:

How can the LD support possibly be so low? It's beyond catastrophic, even if having betrayed everything they've ever supported they should have retained a certain amount of stubborn support, even madmen get more support than that. And it's becoming self fulfilling, as the worse they appear to do, the more their few remaining supporters will consider voting for someone else with a better chance of actually doing something.

Living as I do in a Tory heartland where if you don't support the Tories you vote LD, with Lab and UKIP (for now anyway) nowhere, it's hard to wrap my head around how hated they have become. Disproportionate to their 'crimes' but there doesn't seem a place for them anymore as a national party, they are just a niche party for isolated enclaves.

Is it possibly beause the SLDs went into coalition first with Labour (in Holyrood) and then in Westminster (with the Tories)? They'll have upset just about everyone sooner or later.

Ironic? The party for coalition sees coalitions destroy it?

Possibly. While specific people and actions will have undermined them, the level to which support dropped immediately upon Coalition, and the internal and external cries of betrayal and 'basically just Tories now', suggests to me that while many people claim they want politicians to be able to compromise and work together, they do not like the reality of it, as they see any compromise as losing and any gains not worth the price.

Morris_Dancer

The Prime Minister has resigned (in Yemen):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29302898

Alistair

The Westminster part of the survey was:

Labour: 38.6
SNP: 34.7
Con: 18.4
LD: 3.4
Other: 4.9

Roger

Eagle

"Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried."

You noticed! For the first time ever I've been vaguely on the inside track of Scottish politics for the last few days and it's surprising what you pick up.

TCPoliticalBetting

Alistair said:

There is talk of the pro-independence groups, including the SNP, standing in the 2015 GE as a coalition "Scottish Alliance". If that was done competently, keeping the extra voters who turned up for the referendum engaged, the Lib Dems remaining as toxic nationally as they currently seem and the poor Labour voters who voted for independence feelling betrayed by their own party, then it would be perfectly feasible that the Scottish Alliance would end up the 3rd largest party in the UK.

Thanks, they have a 45% vote share to use through a slate. Whereas SLAB, Scon and SLDs split 55% 3 ways.

bigjohnowls

How good is Sunil Narine.

3 overs 3 for 6 so far in champions trophy t20

the batsmen dont seem to be able to read him at all

corporeal

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it the Lib Dems or the Conservative conference next?

I wonder if Clegg might try to get both the English devolution and kick the Tories voters on-side by proposing a despicable regionalisation agenda but opposing real devolution (English votes for English laws or, better, an actual parliament).

Anyway, still got Miliband's big speech.

Tory one. Lib Dems 4-8 October.

Clegg's pushing for a constitutional convention afaik.

Alistair

The 2010 GE results in Scotland were:

Lab: 42
LD: 18.9
SNP: 19.9
Con: 16.7
Other: 2.5

Only 7 months to go, the swing could stick.

Morris_Dancer

Cheers, Mr. Corporeal.

Mr. Roger, maybe you should become pb's official Scottish correspondent. [It remains bizarre that there's no Scottish Labour chaps here whatsoever].

AllyM

I'd be keen to see this in 5-6 months.

See how much the SNP craze holds. Some of it will indeed hold but, how much, not sure.

Neil

Artist said:

rottenborough said:

Just put these poll figures into Electoral Calculus. They predict a massive increase in SNP seats of 37! Labour lose 25. Liberals loss all seats.

Not sure how accurate the Calculus is, but interesting all the same.

Putting the Scottish Survation Westminster voting intention into Electoral Calculus gives in seats

Lab 40 (-1) SNP 17 (+11) Con 2 (+1) LD 0 (-11)

Which may just stop some posters wetting themselves over how many seats Labour might lose in Scotland next year. Or maybe not.

Alistair

AllyM said:

I'd be keen to see this in 5-6 months.

See how much the SNP craze holds. Some of it will indeed hold but, how much, not sure.

It's all about if the SNP can keep the messaging focused and on point whilst they hold the leadership election.

rogerh

Alistair said:

The 2010 GE results in Scotland were:

Lab: 42
LD: 18.9
SNP: 19.9
Con: 16.7

Only 7 months to go, the swing could stick.

If the swing sticks it could be very uncomfortable at the GE 2015.SNP holding the balance of power?

Neil

AllyM said:

See how much the SNP craze holds.

It's not a craze. It's less than 4% up on the last election.

AllyM

Alistair said:

AllyM said:

I'd be keen to see this in 5-6 months.

See how much the SNP craze holds. Some of it will indeed hold but, how much, not sure.

It's all about if the SNP can keep the messaging focused and on point whilst they hold the leadership election.

Indeed. Added to that, how many stay charged up and how many fall back.

AllyM

Neil said:

AllyM said:

See how much the SNP craze holds.

It's not a craze. It's less than 4% up on the last election.

There's still a craze going on up here, simple.

9,000 and rising new members, most with '45' on their Twitter profiles. Craze if I saw one.

They gained seats last time to give Labour a kicking, lest we forget. This is different. This has craze infused supporters. Some will hold, how many, I'm most interested in.

SimonStClare

Artist said:

rottenborough said:

Just put these poll figures into Electoral Calculus. They predict a massive increase in SNP seats of 37! Labour lose 25. Liberals loss all seats.

Not sure how accurate the Calculus is, but interesting all the same.

Putting the Scottish Survation Westminster voting intention into Electoral Calculus gives in seats

Lab 40 (-1) SNP 17 (+11) Con 2 (+1) LD 0 (-11)

Why does every one pick on the Lib Dems...?

tessyC

Big pinch of salt poll, taken at a time when the constitutional settlement is up in the air. The SNP have spent all their energy on the referendum and have been given a pass on how they are governing. They have almost another two years until thy face the electorate, by which time their manifesto will have to have tax raising commitments. Their broad coalition will not survive the tax commitments to placate Labour voters in Glasgow and Tartan Tories.

kle4

Alistair said:

AllyM said:

I'd be keen to see this in 5-6 months.

See how much the SNP craze holds. Some of it will indeed hold but, how much, not sure.

It's all about if the SNP can keep the messaging focused and on point whilst they hold the leadership election.

As it is to be an anointing, apparently, retaining focus should not be difficult.

DecrepitJohnL

SNP were the moral victors in both vote share and membership. Surely both Labour and Conservative party treasurers will be looking at their invoices for expensive American and Australian election gurus hired amidst great hoopla, and wondering if they can have their money back.

TheScreamingEagles

Roger said:

Eagle

"Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried."

You noticed! For the first time ever I've been vaguely on the inside track of Scottish politics for the last few days and it's surprising what you pick up.

I was really impressed by your insights.

From now I shall be betting based on your tips.

MarkHopkins

AllyM said:

Neil said:

AllyM said:

See how much the SNP craze holds.

It's not a craze. It's less than 4% up on the last election.

There's still a craze going on up here, simple.

9,000 and rising new members, most with '45' on their Twitter profiles. Craze if I saw one.

They gained seats last time to give Labour a kicking, lest we forget. This is different. This has craze infused supporters. Some will hold, how many, I'm most interested in.

I'm not sure I understand the idea of promoting 45 to remind everyone that they lost.

Can you imagine someone adding "ran over old lady and cat" to their twitter profile after they failed their driving test?

Scott_P

AllyM said:

There's still a craze going on up here, simple.

9,000 and rising new members, most with '45' on their Twitter profiles. Craze if I saw one.

@bernerlap: It’s so sweet of #the45 to keep tweeting this hashtag. I love the way they’re reminding us they lost by more than 10 points.

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Eagle

"Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried."

You noticed! For the first time ever I've been vaguely on the inside track of Scottish politics for the last few days and it's surprising what you pick up.

I was really impressed by your insights.

From now I shall be betting based on your tips.

Talking of Roger's tips and insights, should we be lumping on The Imitation Game (Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing) for the Oscars?

bigjohnowls

TSE is there a thread coming on Tuesdays PB get together or have i missed it?

foxinsoxuk

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Lord Sugar‏@Lord_Sugar·2m
Mauricio: "We need to fix it and focus on the next game." ...... I've decided not to learn to pronounce your name you might be gone by Xmas


FPT:

Peter_the_Punter said:
Has Poch learned to speak English yet? Or is he not bothering?

To which I replied:

He's still got the cab running!

Didn't rate him as much as so many pundits when at Saints, players not him from the games I saw, nothing 'game changing' in his tactics or substitutions. Hope I'll be proven wrong but don't expect to be. We could easily lose by 6 next weekend.

There may be a job at Manchester for him soon.

At 83 minutes the Leicester crowd was singing "We want six"

A game to savour. I hope PBers took my tip. I was a little worried when we were 2:0 down, but after Ulloa's first it was never in doubt. I have a few quid on him at 66/1 for top goal scorer.

Alistair

SeanT said:

However there are dangers here for the Nats, despite the expected and instant surge in sympathy.

It is easy to see them splitting over the next two years between fundamentalists - the 45 - who WILL want another vote ASAP, and the wiser gradualists (and remember that Salmond himself was a gradualist). Sturgeon has a difficult job.

The proposed Euro Referendum in 2017 is critical. If it occurs and the UK votes to leave but Scotland votes to stay then that because a legitimate casus belli for a new independence vote. The logic behind the justification would be unarguable.

Neil

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

AllyM said:

I'd be keen to see this in 5-6 months.

See how much the SNP craze holds. Some of it will indeed hold but, how much, not sure.

It's all about if the SNP can keep the messaging focused and on point whilst they hold the leadership election.

As it is to be an anointing, apparently, retaining focus should not be difficult.

There will presumably be a deputy leader election. 1/3 from Will Hill was quite generous.

TheScreamingEagles

bigjohnowls said:

TSE is there a thread coming on Tuesdays PB get together or have i missed it?

Yes. I'll be sticking it on to the bottom of the morning thread.

TheScreamingEagles

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Eagle

"Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried."

You noticed! For the first time ever I've been vaguely on the inside track of Scottish politics for the last few days and it's surprising what you pick up.

I was really impressed by your insights.

From now I shall be betting based on your tips.

Talking of Roger's tips and insights, should we be lumping on The Imitation Game (Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing) for the Oscars?

Yes. Benedict is God.

rogerh

corporeal said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Is it the Lib Dems or the Conservative conference next?

I wonder if Clegg might try to get both the English devolution and kick the Tories voters on-side by proposing a despicable regionalisation agenda but opposing real devolution (English votes for English laws or, better, an actual parliament).

Anyway, still got Miliband's big speech.

Tory one. Lib Dems 4-8 October.

Clegg's pushing for a constitutional convention afaik.

If Clegg has any sense he will support EV4EL ie English parliamnet on the same timescale as Scottish devolution.
A constitutional conference after the GE could be the way ahead for English devolution from an Engliish parliament to local government where clearly there is not time to sort this out pre GE

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Eagle

"Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried."

You noticed! For the first time ever I've been vaguely on the inside track of Scottish politics for the last few days and it's surprising what you pick up.

I was really impressed by your insights.

From now I shall be betting based on your tips.

Talking of Roger's tips and insights, should we be lumping on The Imitation Game (Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing) for the Oscars?

Yes. Benedict is God.

He was a good Khan.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Eagle

"Given how accurately you called the referendum, the SNP will be worried."

You noticed! For the first time ever I've been vaguely on the inside track of Scottish politics for the last few days and it's surprising what you pick up.

I was really impressed by your insights.

From now I shall be betting based on your tips.

Talking of Roger's tips and insights, should we be lumping on The Imitation Game (Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing) for the Oscars?

Yes. Benedict is God.

He was a good Khan.

He was fine. I still had Riccardo Montalban at the back of my mind though.

AlastairMeeks

Greetings from Crna Gora. I'm currently thinking of turning to the Westminster Scottish seats in the wake of the referendum result on my return from sabbatical next weekend. Initial thoughts: it's complicated.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Antifrank, should see more churn than last time, at least.

AlastairMeeks

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Antifrank, should see more churn than last time, at least.

That is a safe prediction!

TheScreamingEagles

FYI. The Sun are handing out free bacon butties to Labour activists and the general public in Manchester.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Antifrank, after some bad F1 tips I'm trying to play it safe.

Mr. Eagles, did they give them tomato sauce as well?

bigjohnowls

EV4EL is in here

http://t.co/XMl2ly3p8K

Neil

Will Hill are also being generous with their 2016 most seats market, 4/5 on SNP:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/4733168/Most-seats.html

Cant see that lasting long.

Richard_Nabavi

antifrank said:

Greetings from Crna Gora. I'm currently thinking of turning to the Westminster Scottish seats in the wake of the referendum result on my return from sabbatical next weekend. Initial thoughts: it's complicated.

Excellent news. If it was simple, we wouldn't need your analysis!

Hope you're enjoying your sabbatical!

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Antifrank, after some bad F1 tips I'm trying to play it safe.

Mr. Eagles, did they give them tomato sauce as well?

I didn't get that close.

As a very good Muslim I avoid bacon.

Alistair

The SNP website is crashing repeatedly under the load of new members trying to sign up.

Peter_the_Punter

@Foxinsox

Did you lump on at humungous odds when they were 0-2 down?

No fibbing now.....

TheScreamingEagles

Alistair said:

The SNP website is crashing repeatedly under the load of new members trying to sign up.

A few thousand members seems a bit lame compared to the missing million.

saddo

What's to stop Cameron quickly putting a Scots bill together with some really simple English voting rules that apply to Westminster parliament straight away.

Could help Libs in Scotland as they have supported the quick change Scots want.

Labour won't be able to stop it and will have to go into the 2015 election with a clear anti English vote platform to change the law back.

Screws them completely.

AllyM

MarkHopkins said:

AllyM said:

Neil said:

AllyM said:

See how much the SNP craze holds.

It's not a craze. It's less than 4% up on the last election.

There's still a craze going on up here, simple.

9,000 and rising new members, most with '45' on their Twitter profiles. Craze if I saw one.

They gained seats last time to give Labour a kicking, lest we forget. This is different. This has craze infused supporters. Some will hold, how many, I'm most interested in.

I'm not sure I understand the idea of promoting 45 to remind everyone that they lost.

Can you imagine someone adding "ran over old lady and cat" to their twitter profile after they failed their driving test?

I know (nearly had a mental lapse there and was away to type 'ken'). It's getting beyond a joke now and is quite frankly, daft.

Neil

Alistair said:

The SNP website is crashing repeatedly under the load of new members trying to sign up.

How did they think they could run an independent country when they cant even run a website.

AllyM

Scott_P said:

AllyM said:

There's still a craze going on up here, simple.

9,000 and rising new members, most with '45' on their Twitter profiles. Craze if I saw one.

@bernerlap: It’s so sweet of #the45 to keep tweeting this hashtag. I love the way they’re reminding us they lost by more than 10 points.

Indeed.

MarkHopkins

saddo said:

What's to stop Cameron quickly putting a Scots bill together with some really simple English voting rules that apply to Westminster parliament straight away.

Could help Libs in Scotland as they have supported the quick change Scots want.

Labour won't be able to stop it and will have to go into the 2015 election with a clear anti English vote platform to change the law back.

Screws them completely.

Certainly seems to be the easiest plan.

Put a bill with England/Scottish changes in together; anyone who votes against simultaneously annoys both the Scots and the English.