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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-Mori becomes the latest pollster to show the indyref being too close to call
The changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll which was conducted at the start of August, it was before any of the debates, so it is coming into line with the other pollsters, given their track record at the 2011 Holyrood election, it will cause great alarm at Better Together, this is a phone poll, and also has the same lead the ICM phone had last week.
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@jimwaterson: When @sirajdatoo went to report on pro-indy event http://t.co/lWMQnu6QsT the BBC were turned away and told "just fuck off, not welcome here"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29239447
youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk&feature=youtu.be
Yes 46.51%, Turnout 83.35%.
I know we teachers get big holidays blah blah but I think right now I'd swap them to be able to take the next two days off.
Groans, what an idiot!!
3:38PM
Perhaps the same 750 people are responding to all the pollsters!
Flag Quote · Off Topic
The fellow from Survation hinted he thought that might not be far from the truth on the Daily Politics
Westminster came too late to the party and allowed Yes to set the agenda. The Devomax move was a sign of total panic.
Scotland will be an angry place for a long, long time. The SNP's lies will be exposed at home, while abroad the warm welcome that many lefty Yessers expect from their "progressive brothers and sisters" will not be forthcoming. Nationalists everywhere, though, will be delighted.
Back in those days I was such a lefty class warrior, I seriously didn't think London would elect someone who said balderdash and piffle!!
That didn't help the bet and I paid through my pocket... A grand on Ken Livingstone I must have been mental, and lax with money!
All the polls over the last 24 hours say the same thing.
Four polls 48/52, one poll 49/51.
OK, it's not comfortable but it seems pretty unlikely they are ALL wrong enough that Yes could really be ahead.
Plus, on balance, it seems more likely that people switch to No at the last minute in the polling booth.
In my opinion the odds should be Yes 6, No 1.2.
"Shetland could opt to leave an independent Scotland, Carmichael says
Oil-rich Shetland could opt to leave Scotland if it votes for independence, Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish secretary says. He’s been speaking to my colleague Esther Addley, and she’s filed this.
In an interview with the Guardian, Carmichael said if the islands were to vote strongly “no” but the Scottish national vote was a narrow yes, then a “conversation about Shetland’s position and the options that might be open to it” would begin.
The Lib Dem MP, who represents Orkney and Shetland in Westminster and has been secretary of state or Scotland in the coalition government since last October, said those options might include the islands modelling themselves on the Isle of Man, which is a self-governing Crown dependency, or on the Faroe Islands, which are an autonomous country within the Danish realm.
Asked if he was suggesting that Alex Salmond should not necessarily take for granted that oilfields off Shetland will belong to Scotland in the event of a yes vote, he said: “That would be one of the things that we would want to discuss. I wouldn’t like to predict at this stage where the discussions would go.”
This has been speculated about in the media & indeed on this site. But this is a semi-official comment from a government minister. I fear it may backfire very badly.
Carmichael, is not "bluffing".
Ps; "bluffing" added to the list.
That's in 44 and a half hour's time.
Given the above, the price is still out of kilter (geddit) with the polls. In my opinion.
Scaremongering.
1. Some postal votes will have been cast before a late move towards 'yes' - not perhaps enormously so, but enough
2. If I correctly remember the endless poring over figures on US elections they do over at Daily Kos, 'don't knows' tend to break against change. If they were going to be converted to throw an incumbent out, or approve a proposition, they already would have been.
Unlikely IMO.
If the Scots win, Cameron should resign as it is because he is so out of touch - more interested in a lol text message from a newspaper editor than people's lives...
http://www.shetnews.co.uk/letters/9231-a-fighting-chance
It's very, very unlikely that the SNP will be able to negotiate an opt out from the standard EU fisheries policy. This would be a disaster for Shetland's economy. So after a yes vote, Shetland has 3 options:
1. Stay with Scotland. Lose the Fishing industry to the EU.
2. Go independent from EU/UK. Uncertain how much fishing territory or oil territory they'd keep.
3. Vote to stay with the UK. This would keep the UK's opt-out for fishing for them, and as a bonus, the UK would have lots of claim to lots of the oil off Shetland. Goodbye 'geographic share of the oil', and Scotland's economy. I'm sure Shetland would be rewarded with a mother-of-all Barnett-type agreement.
I know which way I'd vote if I was Shetland...
If there is a "Yes" win I'll offer a bet to anyone who wants to take it - despite the "Yes" propaganda that if they win there will be no more Tory governments ever in Scotland, and the even dafter suggestion from some quarters that there will be no more Labour governments in RUK, I will bet £50 that
1) within 20 years there will be a new government in Scotland which includes, possibly as part of a coalition, ministers who are recognisably centre-right (e.g. either members of whatever Scottish Conservative Party or it's successor organisation is called, or of some new party with a platform which is pro business, pro small government, and pro low taxes and light regulation,) and
2) unfortunately within the same timeframe there will also be a government in RUK which includes Labour ministers.
Odds negotiable - I'll start by suggesting evens but I think the probability of those two things both happening within 20 years given a "Yes" is higher than 50:50 so will consider a reasonable proposal for odds reflecting this.
If the person taking the bet with me is from Scotland I'm willing to consider a bet denominated in Euros, as if there is a "Yes" vote you won't be using the pound in 20 years' time.
Party support changes - within my lifetime there was a Conservative PM in the UK who had majority support in Scotland and there have been Labour governments with a majority of the vote in England. It is entirely possible, especially in the different environment which will exist after Friday whichever way the vote goes, that support might change round again.
Although can they not just take care of their constituents but be abstentionist and not turn up to Westminster?
I can't recall why it was relevant but, I felt the need to bring it up nonetheless.
The markets on which we all depend for our wealth and security would very much like to see an orderly transition.
In the case of 3 they'd, in all likelyhood, be classed as an island enclave and jsut get their 12-mile territorial waters, the EEZ would remain Scotlands
Shetlands already has a mother-of-all Barnett type agreement, they get a share of the oil revenue - they have their own Oil Fund unlike the UK as a whole.
I live 400 miles away from Scotland and have no real connection with it. If it goes independent, it is not really going to affect me, unless the stock market and other financial markets go into meltdown.
But the stupid thing is that I do care about it. It is a 307 year old union and I think if separation happens, it might not be a good thing for the UK's reputation.
It would be one thing to make the sober case that independence is worth it despite the economic costs and risks; but the SNP has been claiming that there are no costs and risks, which is just wrong.
The broader Yes campaign and supporters have made more comments along the lines of knowing there could be issues but it being worth it, which is a very respectable position to hold, but it has been frustrating how many in No err too far on the pessimistic side while still accepting Scotland ultimately would do ok, and how many in Yes dismiss any hint of risk as just plain wrong and presenting the opponents as question whether Scotland could be independent, rather than if it should.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Is this a requirement of British Polling Council?
Yet 16/1 as next to leave the Cabinet with PaddyPower
Cameron - weak, weak, weak
Assuming the Nationalists are correct, however, their argument wouldn't stand if Shetland remained part of the rUK. Then, I believe, the drawing of lines around who gets what becomes much more open to debate. I'm sure it would end up in court. But I'm also confident the rUK would get rather a lot more oil than Scotland would want.
Regardless, fishing is currently a major industry in Shetland. Once it becomes clear that the EU isn't going to give Scotland an opt-out from the fisheries policy (which could happen within days), I can easily see a Westminster-backed 'stay with the UK' movement gaining quick momentum.
Actually, I can see such movements springing up in other areas like the Borders. If the UK is divisible, then Scotland is...
There will be difficulties of course. But - for reasons which I'm quite willing to expand on if anyone's interested - I do think that if Scotland votes yes, it will be in rUK's interest to have some sort of currency union and to be gracious and generous in its negotiations with Scotland. It is never a good idea to have such a close neighbour in dire straits. It would affect us - possibly badly - were we to do so.
So I think the gloom and doom is both overdone and self-defeating. Britain's USP is stability and a certain sang-froid in the face of problems. So it should treat any decision by Scotland to become independent with civility, graciousness and in a spirit of co-operation rather than with hysterical "we're all doomed / you're all doomed" panic and vengefulness.
It'd knacker me for the Singapore practice, though.
Even the Euro had some seriously heavy weight fans. Scottish independence seems to have got the thumbs down from every serious economic commentator.
* I say credible because there are some incredible commentators and organisations closely tied to YES saying stuff that frankly makes them look stupid.
This is the same body of law that's being used to guarantee the Falklands isles so the rUK would be in choppy waters if it wanted to rock the boat.
I'm doing the live results threads, and there will be some subtle pop music references in them
I've managed to segue in a reference to Rick Astley!
Also the Scottish are unable to man their existing infantry commitments and have to fill the gaps with Fijians. They can't get enough recruits due to the poor standards of health and fitness of the young.
Scaremongering
Bluffing
Turnip
Momentum
Knife-Edge
#Indyref
More always welcome.
"I just want everybody to have a really good experience on polling day," she said. "No impediments to voting, everything goes smoothly when they turn up to vote. And then we get an accurate result that everybody can trust.""
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-scotland-29233956
Another of my staff was chatting and his view was that no-one is standing up and shouting about voting No but they just know it needs to be done. There is a perception that the Yes campaign have hijacked Scottish nationalism for their own personal agenda.
Off to collect my son and drag him to the polls. His 3 other flat mates who are all Scottish born students are not voting. I am not sure we can take the high postal vote turnout as an indication of the same for in person. Maybe Nick is right with the - 15% estimate.
I think we need a cooler appraisal of the position. Ireland used the pound for decades. There are precedents for what might happen tomorrow in these islands and the consequences were not quite as catastrophic - nor quite as rosy - as everyone is making out. Keeping calm and thinking things through is what's needed.
Alistair seems to be accurate. But what would be the point of rejoining the UK? The enclave issue would occur, and they'd end up paying lots of taxes to London.
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/scotland-and-snp-fooling-yourselves-and.html
I particularly liked this comment, by someone called John Boyd:
Scotland's taxation revenue without oil isn't going to be able to sustain its current spending within the UK, even ignoring any other issue (currency, unfavourable demographic trends, short-term economic hits of creating a new country, benefits of pooling resources, etc.) Scotland's revenue with oil is barely able to sustain current spending as it is if production stays at the level it was at last year, for instance.
So any long-term argument largely rests on issues that have nothing to do with independence - namely hoping an as yet unelected government will pursue policies capable of compensating for all of these negatives. The underlying structure of the economy would indicate that independence is in no way in Scotland's interest, but we're witnessing a kind of conga line into poverty being whipped up by SNP politicians (the only people who we can be certain will actually benefit from a Yes vote materially)
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/watch-gordon-browns-passionate-speech-in-defence-of-the-union/
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/uncategorized/46679/first-ministers-question-in-us/
Weirdly I expect that Salmond would be quite an autocrat were he to realize his dream of becoming President of Scotland - something akin to Putin....
Alex Salmond's insults and threats are empty. I say that as someone from the "other side"