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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the

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    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
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    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    I'm loving Malcolmg's more lucid moments in this thread. More please. I might even be persuaded, were it not for the fact that Scotland will promptly rejoin the EU. A totally free, low tax celtic tiger on England's doorstep would be great! However what we are being offered is a socialist basket case.

    You might strike lucky and find that the EU is as stupid as BT think they are and do not let us in.
    For sure we will need lots of good Tories in the future ( not any of current bunch of duffers ) as there will be lots of clamour for free fish and chips for everybody. We will need a strong centre left government that avoids becoming troughers like Westminster and at least attempts to have a fairer society.
    One only hopes that Labour troughers do not slink home and try to get into power in Scotland. For sure it is a gamble but it is the only show in town, it is time we put up or shut up. We need to vote YES.
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    HYUFD said:

    Easterross You could say that about domestic news in any US state, German region, Canadian province, even domestic local news in Northumberland and Kent

    The difference of course is that Scotland is a country and the Scots are a nation. Do you not realise how rude you are being by comparing a nation to various administrative units?

    I'm sure that you do realise, which is why you are doing it.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    malcolmg said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    Of English people I have heard giving an opinion I would estimate it has been at least 80% for YES, it appears they are more for it than locals.
    I doubt they'd be entirely frank about their voting intentions within your earshot.
    The level of earache that people get from canvassers/coworkers/family/other monomaniacs may make for a lot of different voting in the privacy of a voting booth with pencil poised.
    Biro...

    ;-)
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    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    So writes a Swede who happens to have been born in Scotland. Nauseating post.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    At present it appears that Salmond (Yes) is strong on passion and weak on facts and Darling (No) is weak on passion and strong on facts. Also Murphy appears to be trying to rectify Darling's weakness.

    Having listened to people like Castro and the recordings of Hitler, the people often followed the passion more than the facts, but came to rue their choice in the end.

    Much has been said of the ensuing poverty due to the benign neglect by Labour in parts of Scotland.

    The hymn, "All things Bright & Beautiful" contains a verse that is now usually omitted due to political correctness.

    "The rich man in his castle,
    The poor man at his gate,
    God made them high and lowly,
    And ordered their estate."

    Wherever I have been on this globe and whether the regime is communist, fascist, dictatorship or democracy, the people at the top usually arranged things (to a greater or lesser degree) that they were the rich ones and the rest were the poor. So if Yes or No wins, I would not expect the rich/poor situation to change markedly in Scotland or rUK.

    The only people who will move across economic boundaries are those who have the initiative and determination to do so, waiting for any form of government to do it for you is a a very false hope.

    Your first couple of lines show your total and utter lack of any knowledge of Scotland and the politics going on there. Murphy is a joke , followed about by a chicken yesterday. NO have no clue and no facts or policies to pass on. Murphy may have done better if he was not constantly lying , at least he has ventured outside the private meetings , but he has no story to tell other than Labour at Westminster are now right wing poodles of the Tories. People know this and hence they treat him and his lies accordingly.
    They'll need more chickens then, as Telegraph reporting that Brown, John Reid and Charlie K are joining the central belt fray:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11071210/Gordon-Brown-and-John-Reid-to-lead-Labour-fightback-against-nationalist-surge.html
    Roll out the losers and has beens , every one of them a joke. If they are that desperate then their private numbers must be dire.
    Ah, Charlie Kennedy; the last leader of a significant party who had principles. Such a shame that he was driven to drink.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    It will be a fascinating poll and day after the night before. I wonder, if No wins, just how the Yes campaigners will respond.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229
    Looks like we are not short of cash and planning for Eastern European holidays for the troops. Unlikely we need 600 of these to fight against terrorists.

    Here’s the BBC News website quoting defence secretary Michael Fallon today, on the announcement of a £3.5 billion order for almost 600 new armoured vehicles:

    “‘Nato was formed on the basis that Europe would pay her way. Like any insurance policy, defence only pays out when you pay in.

    US taxpayers won’t go on picking up the cheque if we choose to prioritise social welfare spending when the threats are on our doorstep.’

    BBC defence correspondent Jonathan Beale said the comment on threats was a reference to Russian military intervention in Ukraine.”

    Still it supports 1400 jobs at 2.7 million per job so a bully bargain, much better than workfare.
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    Something everyone has to realise is that for a y Scots or in London by people who often couldn't care less about Scotland? Very difficult to argue against that line.

    How's that different from the rest of us ?
    For the rest of you, the decisions are being taken in your capital city by politicians you elect. Few Scots see London as our capital city and thanks to Tony Blair, our government, the one which determines most issues affecting our lives, is based in Edinburgh. I am a Unionist but every day I watch the TV news and overwhelmingly the domestic news is actually English only news. It has no relevance to Scotland.
    This week day 3 and typically
    1) The first test for the national football team under new captain Wayne Rooney- not my nation or my team
    2) Free school meals issue for all primary schools- not relevant to Scotland where children don't even attend primary school for the same length of time as in England, 7 years in Scotland.
    3) Back to school- well no actually Scots schools went back last month.
    4) Hospital parking charges- well no we haven't had them in Scotland for several years
    5) London Estuary Airport- little relevance here. Recently on a trip to Inverness to discuss flight connectivity with local business and council leaders, the MD of Heathrow had to fly to Glasgow and then drive to Inverness because there are no flights between Inverness and Heathrow! They were removed several years ago so the slots could be used for USA flights. We can however fly from Inverness to the main airport of 2 other EU members, Dublin and Amsterdam.

    I could go on. We simply have very little in common with England any more.
    The bulk of your day to day decisions are being taken in Edinburgh and to me at least by politicians who are just as self-serving as those anywhere else.

    If you live in the Midlands or Northern England the politicians are just as distant as Scotland but you don't have local respresentation and the celts get to vote on what happens to you.

    As for the news well back home in Ulster we have local channels I'm sure you have the same in Scotland so if you want local news try watching them. They'll be full of exciting fare like whingeing politicians, gripping news on bus timetables and farmers who can fart Hip Hop.

    London Estuary doesn't have any effect on me but I am interested in what's happening my neighbours. Have Scots become so inward looking that they lost that capacity ? If you've lost interest in your largest trading partner you're kind of screwed already.
    England's largest trading partner is the rest of the EU. Just imagine if 99% of English television news covered events in France, Germany, Italy, Poland etc and only 1% referred to English stories. There would be riots in the street.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,927
    Will MalcolmG be around on 19th?
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited September 2014
    What I find ironic is the belief of the YES side that they will create a socialist New Jerusalem in an independent Scotland. The reality would I think turn out to be very different. A much more right wing future would beckon as iScotland would need face the rigours of competitive, low tax, pro-business, fiscally sound policies in order to survive and prosper in the modern world. Welfare and subsidy would have to become a thing of the past.

    Having come this far though, remaining a reluctant and divided part of the Union would in the end prove highly unsatisfactory for all concerned. Scotland has the opportunity of independence and it should take it.
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    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    malcolmg said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    Of English people I have heard giving an opinion I would estimate it has been at least 80% for YES, it appears they are more for it than locals.
    (holds up hand)
    I'm one of them...

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Will MalcolmG be around on 19th?

    I believe he has mentioned that he is planning a holiday. To be fair it does sound as if he is in need of one!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773
    edited September 2014

    Something everyone has to realise is that for a y Scots or in London by people who often couldn't care less about Scotland? Very difficult to argue against that line.

    How's that different from the rest of us ?
    For the rest of you, the decisions are being taken in your capital city by politicians you elect. Few Scots see London as our capital city and thanks to Tony Blair, our government, the one which determines most issues affecting our lives, is based in Edinburgh. I am a Unionist but every day I watch the TV news and overwhelmingly the domestic news is actually English only news. It has no relevance to Scotland.
    This week day 3 and typically
    1) The first test for the national football team under new captain Wayne Rooney- not my nation or my team
    for USA flights. We can however fly from Inverness to the main airport of 2 other EU members, Dublin and Amsterdam.

    I could go on. We simply have very little in common with England any more.
    The bulk of your day to day decisions are being taken in Edinburgh and to me at least by politicians who are just as self-serving as those anywhere else.
    .

    London Estuary doesn't have any effect on me but I am interested in what's happening my neighbours. Have Scots become so inward looking that they lost that capacity ? If you've lost interest in your largest trading partner you're kind of screwed already.
    England's largest trading partner is the rest of the EU. Just imagine if 99% of English television news covered events in France, Germany, Italy, Poland etc and only 1% referred to English stories. There would be riots in the street.

    Quite often it does, and any of us in industry read what's happening in our biggest markets. I read French, German and Irish newspapers every day. And occasionally Scottish ones for light entertainment.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Curtice in the Telegraph on the YouGov:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11070471/Scottish-independence-What-will-it-take-to-persuade-Scots-to-say-no.html

    Thought therefore needs to be given to the source of the No side’s message, as well as its content – and attention paid to the fact that YouGov’s poll shows that Labour supporters are much more inclined to trust Gordon Brown in the debate about Scotland’s future than they are his successor, David Cameron.

    For all that the referendum matters to his political future, the Prime Minister would do better to accept that he should rely on others to fight the battle for him, difficult though that may be for him to do. After all, Labour has just as much to lose as the Prime Minister should Scotland opt to vote Yes.

    That touches on the most interesting point in the VI leader data Carlotta posted earlier.

    Brown was +20, Milband +5 and Lamont +2.

    In 2010 Labour did surprisingly well in the election - perhaps because Brown was a local boy made good. Will Miliband do as well in GOTV, and might he lose a couple of critical seats?
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    Something everyone has to realise is that for a large part of the Scottish electorate issues like currency, EU and NATO membership etc just don't matter. They have had enough. They believe all the politicians are liars and self serving. They do believe the closer to them decisions are taken, the more likely those decisions will impact positively on their lives.

    For someone living in Glasgow, Stirling, Dumfries, Perth, Inverness, Aberdeen, Dundee or Edinburgh, are the decisions affecting your life better taken in Edinburgh by Scots or in London by people who often couldn't care less about Scotland? Very difficult to argue against that line.

    How's that different from the rest of us ?
    Alanbrooke for the rest of you, the decisions are being taken in your capital city by politicians you elect. Few Scots see London as our capital city and thanks to Tony Blair, our government, the one which determines most issues affecting our lives, is based in Edinburgh. I am a Unionist but every day I watch the TV news and overwhelmingly the domestic news is actually English only news. It has no relevance to Scotland.
    This week day 3 and typically
    1) The first test for the national football team under new captain Wayne Rooney- not my nation or my team
    2) Free school meals issue for all primary schools- not relevant to Scotland where children don't even attend primary school for the same length of time as in England, 7 years in Scotland.
    3) Back to school- well no actually Scots schools went back last month.
    4) Hospital parking charges- well no we haven't had them in Scotland for several years
    5) London Estuary Airport- little relevance here. Recently on a trip to Inverness to discuss flight connectivity with local business and council leaders, the MD of Heathrow had to fly to Glasgow and then drive to Inverness because there are no flights between Inverness and Heathrow! They were removed several years ago so the slots could be used for USA flights. We can however fly from Inverness to the main airport of 2 other EU members, Dublin and Amsterdam.

    I could go on. We simply have very little in common with England any more.
    Keep your chin up, Easterross. All is not lost.
    When even card-carrying, active members of the Scottish Conservative Party are sick fed up with the current state of the Union you know that the writing is on the wall.

    All is not lost just yet, but you only have 14 days left. I know what I would do if I was in your shoes, but I confidently predict that you will not do it.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,945
    For those concerned that NO might lose take heart. Two of the three worst predictors on here (Easterross and Southam) have predicted YES.

    (Having a Scottish MP as a relative means I can't share their pessimism)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,233
    SD California has a population of 30 million, Scotland 5 million, there is nothing rude about it. Bavaria used to be a nation etc. It was Scotland which voted for the Act of Union, culturally Scotland, England and Wales are nations, politically they are the UK
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    Hmmmm. English origin. My sister, born in Wales, lived for many years in Scotland and all her children were born and educated there. One still lives there, with her two children. Another relation, born in Cornwall, moved to Scotland for her education and has married there. However, it transpires that her (very new) husband, although he regards himself as Scots, was in fact born in England, and at the wedding his relations sounded more Essex than I do!

    No, I don’t know how they’re all going to vote.

    However my wife has an English-born relation who, after working in Aberdeen for many years has retired there and the last time we saw him had a button badge with “Better Together” on his coat.

    It can get complicated.
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    Mr. Dickson, that's an odd comparison given we aren't (yet, thankfully) in a country called the USE. Also, Scots have most recently been the predecessor to both the PM and Chancellor. It's hardly oppression.

    Incidentally, I was checking the TV guide on the box and apparently channel 8 will shortly become a Leeds channel. Presumably everywhere's getting a local channel?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Sean_F said:



    Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes. I mean, what positive spin can you place on local councillors and police officers tolerating child-rape? You can polish a turd as much as you like, but it still remains a turd.

    Mary Riddell has a similarly morose piece here - the title suggests it's anti-Dave, but it's really despondent about everyone, and puts its hope merely in a vague gesture to community involvement:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11070424/David-Camerons-anti-terror-curbs-wont-scare-the-wolf-at-his-door.html

    In my experience, community involvement is a good thing, but to get beyond the small slice of people who positively like volunteering to help organise community things ("I had a really good evening with my sewing circle"), you need a really different culture from the "What are They doing for Us? Nothing!" attitude that is prevalent in Britain. There are various routes to it - my favoured Scandinavian model of collective high-tax high-service society works quite well, but so does the American small-town community of self-reliant individuals, as does the cantonal government system in Switzerland. The common factor is clear consensus that the local system works well, whereas in Britain we have a pretty broad consensus that nothing works well so people just need to look after themselves.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135

    Will MalcolmG be around on 19th?

    I believe he has mentioned that he is planning a holiday. To be fair it does sound as if he is in need of one!
    Is that a considered professional opinion?
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    Easterross's slow but sure conversion to nationalism spells disaster for Ed Miliband.
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    Roger said:

    For those concerned that NO might lose take heart. Two of the three worst predictors on here (Easterross and Southam) have predicted YES.

    (Having a Scottish MP as a relative means I can't share their pessimism)

    I fear that you do make a very valid point Roger! ;)

    However, the only people with a worse record than Easterross are ScottP and Fittalass! :)

    I note that although Ian Murray MP only has a majority of 316 over the Liberal Democrats, he is looking like a shoo-in:

    Best prices - Edinburgh South

    Lab (Murray) 1/25 (Lad)
    SNP 25/1 (Lad, PP)
    LD 25/1 (Lad, PP)
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
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    Mr. Dickson, that's an odd comparison given we aren't (yet, thankfully) in a country called the USE. Also, Scots have most recently been the predecessor to both the PM and Chancellor. It's hardly oppression.

    Incidentally, I was checking the TV guide on the box and apparently channel 8 will shortly become a Leeds channel. Presumably everywhere's getting a local channel?

    Let's hope not. Local news is bad enough without a whole channel of parochial garbage.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Sean_F said:



    Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes. I mean, what positive spin can you place on local councillors and police officers tolerating child-rape? You can polish a turd as much as you like, but it still remains a turd.

    Mary Riddell has a similarly morose piece here - the title suggests it's anti-Dave, but it's really despondent about everyone, and puts its hope merely in a vague gesture to community involvement:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11070424/David-Camerons-anti-terror-curbs-wont-scare-the-wolf-at-his-door.html

    In my experience, community involvement is a good thing, but to get beyond the small slice of people who positively like volunteering to help organise community things ("I had a really good evening with my sewing circle"), you need a really different culture from the "What are They doing for Us? Nothing!" attitude that is prevalent in Britain. There are various routes to it - my favoured Scandinavian model of collective high-tax high-service society works quite well, but so does the American small-town community of self-reliant individuals, as does the cantonal government system in Switzerland. The common factor is clear consensus that the local system works well, whereas in Britain we have a pretty broad consensus that nothing works well so people just need to look after themselves.

    Traditionally, in Britain this came from churches and groups like Rotary societies and the Roundtable. The problem is a culture set in, particularly among the so-called "metropolitan elite", of mocking such things as being stuffy and old-fashioned. I can't help but see it as an extension of what Orwell mentioned as the English chattering classes having a distaste for their own culture. It also can't have been helped by immigration, which often split up communities along racial and linguistic lines, creating widespread alienation.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    HYUFD said:

    SD California has a population of 30 million, Scotland 5 million, there is nothing rude about it. Bavaria used to be a nation etc. It was Scotland which voted for the Act of Union, culturally Scotland, England and Wales are nations, politically they are the UK

    Northumbria once was a kingdom that included Edinburgh !

    Kent too.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    The Eurozone "recovery" is now properly derailed. France in particular is now heading for a prolonged recession and whatever the official statistics might say, the French economy has contracted since the end of last year. While the ONS is lamentable with its initial accuracy, the numbers are at least free of political tampering, the French statistics body is a complete joke, too many private indicators and unfudgeable metrics have gone negative to support this illusion of stagnation in the French economy. Now with the PS splitting down the reformist left and hard left with the possibility of new elections and cohabitation with a PS president and a UMP majority in Parliament reforms are going to be even harder to push through.

    The ECB must relent on monetary policy and ramp up its efforts to combat deflation. Forgetting the high power hoover bans and hair dryer bans, it will be the economic stagnation of the EMU that will push us out of the EU. Who would want to be stuck to a bloc of nations that struggles to grow and has an import averse culture driving its economic policy. It would be insane for the UK as a country with low corporation tax and a flexible labour market to tie its future performance and exports to a market which is showing little to no growth and no appetite for our exported goods. Our trade deficit with the EU has continued to grow in recent years while our trade deficit with the RoW has been turned into a surplus and that surplus continues to grow. Without pumping up inflation within the EMU not only would we be trying to export to an import averse economic policy but also one who's consumers are delaying expenditure. It just seems unsustainable for the EMU to expect the British consumer to keep buying EMU products while our companies are expected to welcome deflation and the German products über alles attitude that permeates the bloc. If the ECB are not going to try and combat deflation what's the point of staying in the EU?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135
    If Scotland does vote YES, what will happen to UKIP there?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    England's largest trading partner is the rest of the EU. Just imagine if 99% of English television news covered events in France, Germany, Italy, Poland etc and only 1% referred to English stories. There would be riots in the street.

    1400 children just got raped due to police and councillors looking the other way and people are not rioting on the streets. I think you exaggerate the effect of our media.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,255

    Roger said:

    For those concerned that NO might lose take heart. Two of the three worst predictors on here (Easterross and Southam) have predicted YES.

    (Having a Scottish MP as a relative means I can't share their pessimism)

    I fear that you do make a very valid point Roger! ;)

    However, the only people with a worse record than Easterross are ScottP and Fittalass! :)

    I note that although Ian Murray MP only has a majority of 316 over the Liberal Democrats, he is looking like a shoo-in:

    Best prices - Edinburgh South

    Lab (Murray) 1/25 (Lad)
    SNP 25/1 (Lad, PP)
    LD 25/1 (Lad, PP)
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
    While I'm sure you are right, that's a 4% return in nine months. And who knows how the Scottish seats will split in the event of independence.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    So writes a Swede who happens to have been born in Scotland. Nauseating post.
    Stuart's post seemed a perfectly reasonable argument. No need to call it 'nauseating'.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,255

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
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    HanDodges said:

    Easterross's slow but sure conversion to nationalism spells disaster for Ed Miliband.

    You do not need to be "a nationalist" to be irritated with many aspects of the current Union. It suffices to simply be a Scot.

    Better Together simply do not understand the electorate they are supposedly trying to convince. They are great at talking to core No voters but they are utterly hopeless at addressing the undecided, floating and wavering voters in the middle. Of which there are vast numbers.

    Getting the core No voters out to vote is easy peasy, but they alone will simply not suffice if David Cameron wants to emerge victorious.
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    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:



    Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes. I mean, what positive spin can you place on local councillors and police officers tolerating child-rape? You can polish a turd as much as you like, but it still remains a turd.

    Mary Riddell has a similarly morose piece here - the title suggests it's anti-Dave, but it's really despondent about everyone, and puts its hope merely in a vague gesture to community involvement:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11070424/David-Camerons-anti-terror-curbs-wont-scare-the-wolf-at-his-door.html

    In my experience, community involvement is a good thing, but to get beyond the small slice of people who positively like volunteering to help organise community things ("I had a really good evening with my sewing circle"), you need a really different culture from the "What are They doing for Us? Nothing!" attitude that is prevalent in Britain. There are various routes to it - my favoured Scandinavian model of collective high-tax high-service society works quite well, but so does the American small-town community of self-reliant individuals, as does the cantonal government system in Switzerland. The common factor is clear consensus that the local system works well, whereas in Britain we have a pretty broad consensus that nothing works well so people just need to look after themselves.

    Traditionally, in Britain this came from churches and groups like Rotary societies and the Roundtable. The problem is a culture set in, particularly among the so-called "metropolitan elite", of mocking such things as being stuffy and old-fashioned. I can't help but see it as an extension of what Orwell mentioned as the English chattering classes having a distaste for their own culture. It also can't have been helped by immigration, which often split up communities along racial and linguistic lines, creating widespread alienation.
    Surely this is what David Cameron's Big Society was about, at least until the omnishambles budget.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    malcolmg said:

    Something everyone has to realise is that for a large part of the Scottish electorate issues like currency, EU and NATO membership etc just don't matter. They have had enough. They believe all the politicians are liars and self serving. They do believe the closer to them decisions are taken, the more likely those decisions will impact positively on their lives.

    For someone living in Glasgow, Stirling, Dumfries, Perth, Inverness, Aberdeen, Dundee or Edinburgh, are the decisions affecting your life better taken in Edinburgh by Scots or in London by people who often couldn't care less about Scotland? Very difficult to argue against that line.

    How's that different from the rest of us ?
    You do not have a vote that offers HOPE that you could change things.
    No, rUK suffers from the same mis-diagnosis - 'If only we weren't ruled from London Brussels everything would be so much better'.....with the same fanatical certainty, impervious to argument or reason.....

    Whenever the EU is discussed on here, people like myself, Richard Tyndall and Sean Fear get far more into the detailed arguments of various parts of EU policy then the Europhiles do. It's the pro-EU side that is left with banal sentiments like "we mustn't pull up the drawbridge!" or made-up statistics like "three million jobs at risk!"
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,233
    Pulpstar Exactly
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    I'm only the man in charge, but I didn't know.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29041925

    How long did it take the guy from The Times to join up the dots in Rotherham?
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:



    Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes. I mean, what positive spin can you place on local councillors and police officers tolerating child-rape? You can polish a turd as much as you like, but it still remains a turd.

    Mary Riddell has a similarly morose piece here - the title suggests it's anti-Dave, but it's really despondent about everyone, and puts its hope merely in a vague gesture to community involvement:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11070424/David-Camerons-anti-terror-curbs-wont-scare-the-wolf-at-his-door.html

    In my experience, community involvement is a good thing, but to get beyond the small slice of people who positively like volunteering to help organise community things ("I had a really good evening with my sewing circle"), you need a really different culture from the "What are They doing for Us? Nothing!" attitude that is prevalent in Britain. There are various routes to it - my favoured Scandinavian model of collective high-tax high-service society works quite well, but so does the American small-town community of self-reliant individuals, as does the cantonal government system in Switzerland. The common factor is clear consensus that the local system works well, whereas in Britain we have a pretty broad consensus that nothing works well so people just need to look after themselves.

    Traditionally, in Britain this came from churches and groups like Rotary societies and the Roundtable. The problem is a culture set in, particularly among the so-called "metropolitan elite", of mocking such things as being stuffy and old-fashioned. I can't help but see it as an extension of what Orwell mentioned as the English chattering classes having a distaste for their own culture. It also can't have been helped by immigration, which often split up communities along racial and linguistic lines, creating widespread alienation.
    Surely this is what David Cameron's Big Society was about, at least until the omnishambles budget.
    Yes, it was, and it was part of David Cameron at his best. Unfortunately the thing never particularly went anywhere as he couldn't think of effective policies to actually put it into practice.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Richard_Tyndall

    Surely Norway ranks about Denmark and Holland?
  • Options
    Dr. Spyn, it's bullshit.

    "Of course I feel most uncomfortable and disappointed that we didn't pick up these signals and run with them"

    'Pick up these signals' is a strange euphemism for 'didn't take rape accusations seriously and managed to lose clothing evidence one girl had wisely chosen to keep and gave to us'.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2014
    Once Scotland votes no the priority must be to sort out parity for England - further devo should be put on the back burner for 5-10 years until this is sorted out in the interests of fairness.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
    Ah, read too quickly to notice that requirement. That points to the dodginess of the statistic though: it's foolish to have the peer group as a bunch of nations with mainly land borders.
  • Options

    An interesting snippet from a Q&A with Putin:

    Naturally, we need to be ready to respond to any aggression against Russia. Our partners, no matter what the situation in their countries and the foreign policy ideas they follow, always need to be aware that it is better not to enter into any potential armed conflict against us. Fortunately though, I don’t think anyone has the intention today of trying to start a large-scale conflict against Russia.

    Let me remind you that Russia is one of the world’s biggest nuclear powers. These are not just words – this is the reality. What’s more, we are strengthening our nuclear deterrent capability and developing our armed forces. They have become more compact and effective and are becoming more modern in terms of the weapons at their disposal. We are continuing this work to build up our potential and will keep doing so, not in order to threaten anyone, but so as to be able to feel safe, ensure our security and be able to carry out our economic and social development plans.
    http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/22864

    Putin is right but why is he saying it? Presumably to remind ex-Soviet republics it is pointless joining NATO -- even if the US Navy could theoretically take Sebastopol in half an hour, America would not risk the consequences?

    Or is it to give him cover against his own right wing? Now that he has reasserted Russian status as a world power, he can cut a deal with Ukraine and avoid sanctions?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135
    edited September 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    I'm only the man in charge, but I didn't know.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29041925

    How long did it take the guy from The Times to join up the dots in Rotherham?

    If he’s telling the truth, and he comes across as straightforward, then there was something going wrong at a middle level. Back to “frightened of being labelled racist” again
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Once Scotland votes no the priority must be to sort out parity for England - further devo should be put on the back burner for 5-10 years until this is sorted out in the interests of fairness.

    Ho ho. That is the exact opposite of the fibs Better Together are peddling today.

    But by all means, continue!
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    SD California has a population of 30 million, Scotland 5 million, there is nothing rude about it. Bavaria used to be a nation etc. It was Scotland which voted for the Act of Union, culturally Scotland, England and Wales are nations, politically they are the UK

    Northumbria once was a kingdom that included Edinburgh !

    Kent too.
    I'm pretty much certain that a Kingdom of Kent never included Edinburgh!
  • Options



    In the event of a Yes vote, would a (re)Unionist party get off the ground? If so would it get 1% of the vote, or 20%? It could be quite significant if such a party was regionally strong (eg the Borders).

    No, zero prospect of such a thing happening. Ireland is a good example of this.

    Anyway, there'd be no prospect of the English accepting such a thing
  • Options
    Permanent truce in Ukraine apparently:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29042561
  • Options
    Mr. Patrick, the United Kingdom? :p
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited September 2014

    Dr. Spyn, it's bullshit.

    "Of course I feel most uncomfortable and disappointed that we didn't pick up these signals and run with them"

    'Pick up these signals' is a strange euphemism for 'didn't take rape accusations seriously and managed to lose clothing evidence one girl had wisely chosen to keep and gave to us'.

    As some shadowy figures chanted "Its all for the greater good, the greater good."

    http://www.youtube.com
    /watch?v=yUpbOliTHJY
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    For those concerned that NO might lose take heart. Two of the three worst predictors on here (Easterross and Southam) have predicted YES.

    (Having a Scottish MP as a relative means I can't share their pessimism)

    I fear that you do make a very valid point Roger! ;)

    However, the only people with a worse record than Easterross are ScottP and Fittalass! :)

    I note that although Ian Murray MP only has a majority of 316 over the Liberal Democrats, he is looking like a shoo-in:

    Best prices - Edinburgh South

    Lab (Murray) 1/25 (Lad)
    SNP 25/1 (Lad, PP)
    LD 25/1 (Lad, PP)
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
    While I'm sure you are right, that's a 4% return in nine months. And who knows how the Scottish seats will split in the event of independence.
    Please note that I was NOT recommending backing Murray at that daft price!

    Quite the opposite, I have maxxed out on the SNP for Edinburgh South. It is a long shot, but not a 25/1 long shot!

    I'd say that the correct SNP price for the Westminster seat is approx 5/1.

    Remember, we hold this seat at Holyrood level:

    May 2011 result - SNP Gain from Lib Dems on a 12 point swing

    SNP 9,947
    Lab 9,254
    LD 8,297
    Con 6,298
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    So writes a Swede who happens to have been born in Scotland. Nauseating post.
    Stuart's post seemed a perfectly reasonable argument. No need to call it 'nauseating'.
    The people Dickson speaks of are British but his divisive ideology can't accept that denomination.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Socrates said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
    Ah, read too quickly to notice that requirement. That points to the dodginess of the statistic though: it's foolish to have the peer group as a bunch of nations with mainly land borders.
    Yes, of the North Sea nations I believe Norway ranks first of proven reserves, though I'm sure Richard Tyndall knows better.

    On the subject of oil and gas, and this is a question directed at anyone who knows, what would happen if Orkney and Shetland voted to stay in the union but the mainland voted to leave? Would O&S be forced to become part of iScot or would Salmond respect their vote to remain as part of the union. Bear in mind that O&S has half of all proven oil reserves.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited September 2014
    Noticed this on Paul Waugh's feed. Labour MP Threatens To Quit If Yes Wins.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scots-labour-mp-could-quit-if-yes-wins.25217824
  • Options
    Yes down to 2-1 with Sportingbet, I think the joint lowest price since Oddschecker have been recording the market.
  • Options
    Mr. Max, I believe Salmond's given lip service to the idea of the Orkneys and Shetlands being able to go their own way if they hold a referendum on such a matter. Can't see it happening, though.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    If Scotland does vote YES, what will happen to UKIP there?

    Would seem a bit redundant having a UK Independence party outside the UK. Hard to think what platform they could stand on.
  • Options

    In a normal election, with turnout around 50% to 60%, I would agree with Mike. However, we are going to see astonishing levels of turnout at this election, probably around 80%. Voter registration closed at midnight last night and there were quite literally queues at some offices.

    The higher the turnout the more important the working-age voters become. Keep your hats on. This is gonna be a heck of a ride.

    If the election were restricted to just working-age voters than YES would be home and dry, but the oldies are against Independence by such a wide margin that YES has to win the working-age vote by a large margin too.

    It's a lot of ground to make up.
    Of course the funny thing is that in Scotland, both retired people and "working age" voters tend to live on benefits. Scots understand that you can be of working age but not working.

  • Options

    Socrates said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    So writes a Swede who happens to have been born in Scotland. Nauseating post.
    Stuart's post seemed a perfectly reasonable argument. No need to call it 'nauseating'.
    The people Dickson speaks of are British but his divisive ideology can't accept that denomination.
    The Norwegians are Scandinavians. Does that mean that a Norwegian who self-identifies and describes himself as a Norwegian rather than as a Scandinavian is being "divisive"?

    You are a European. Why do you persist in describing yourself as British? Do you not realise how divisive you are being?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited September 2014
    hmm... which angle is the truth?

    BBC news ticker: UK ECONOMY

    09:35:
    Breaking News
    New government figures for the UK's growth domestic product (GDP) have been released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). They have all been updated to include the black economy - until 2012. There haven't been as many changes as were expected. Broadly speaking the economy's performance - even including sex and drugs as it does now - has still been poor. The length of the downturn has not been revised.


    George Osborne‏@George_Osborne·2 mins
    Good news: UK GDP growth in 2011 & 2012 revised up –UK has now grown 8.1% under this Government, up from 7.0% & faster than France & Germany

    George Osborne‏@George_Osborne·4 mins
    Double dose of good economic news: UK economy climbs global rankings & new GDP data revise growth higher #LongTermEconomicPlan is working
  • Options

    In a normal election, with turnout around 50% to 60%, I would agree with Mike. However, we are going to see astonishing levels of turnout at this election, probably around 80%. Voter registration closed at midnight last night and there were quite literally queues at some offices.

    The higher the turnout the more important the working-age voters become. Keep your hats on. This is gonna be a heck of a ride.

    If the election were restricted to just working-age voters than YES would be home and dry, but the oldies are against Independence by such a wide margin that YES has to win the working-age vote by a large margin too.

    It's a lot of ground to make up.
    Of course the funny thing is that in Scotland, both retired people and "working age" voters tend to live on benefits. Scots understand that you can be of working age but not working.

    And some folk wonder why the Union is teetering on the verge of dissolution.
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
    Ah, read too quickly to notice that requirement. That points to the dodginess of the statistic though: it's foolish to have the peer group as a bunch of nations with mainly land borders.
    I agree Socrates. All I was doing was backing up JJ in answer to the specific point made by Stuart. He only referenced EU oil reserves not European.

    Norway North Sea oil reserves are larger than all the other N.Sea countries combined. And that is before you add in the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea.
  • Options
    dr_spyn said:

    Noticed this on Paul Waugh's feed. Labour MP Threatens To Quit If Yes Wins.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scots-labour-mp-could-quit-if-yes-wins.25217824

    My initial standpoint - without having talked to my wife about this - is I don't envisage standing for Westminster in 2015 for what would be nine months of political bloodshed. I have no appetite for the negotiations, which are going to be horrible."

    Horrible is probably going to be an understatement.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    Will MalcolmG be around on 19th?

    I believe he has mentioned that he is planning a holiday. To be fair it does sound as if he is in need of one!
    I will be around long enough I hope to come on and discuss the YES victory, though I do fly out on holiday on the 19th. Assuming our passports have not been invalidated.
  • Options
    Mr. G, SIP?

    Could argue Scotland should remain out of the EU.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    I'm loving Malcolmg's more lucid moments in this thread. More please. I might even be persuaded, were it not for the fact that Scotland will promptly rejoin the EU. A totally free, low tax celtic tiger on England's doorstep would be great! However what we are being offered is a socialist basket case.

    You might strike lucky and find that the EU is as stupid as BT think they are and do not let us in.
    For sure we will need lots of good Tories in the future ( not any of current bunch of duffers ) as there will be lots of clamour for free fish and chips for everybody. We will need a strong centre left government that avoids becoming troughers like Westminster and at least attempts to have a fairer society.
    One only hopes that Labour troughers do not slink home and try to get into power in Scotland. For sure it is a gamble but it is the only show in town, it is time we put up or shut up. We need to vote YES.
    While you're at it, why not wish for rivers that flow uphill.

    Delusional.

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Guardian writer hates his own country shock:

    "England is dysfunctional, corrupt and vastly unequal. Who on earth would want to be tied to such a country?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,945
    SeanF

    "Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes."

    Scotland Yes and No is actually showing politics in an attractive light. Watching the likes of Jim Murphy speaking with passion on his soapbox is energizing.....

    Where it goes wrong is listening to the obsequious toads who can't conduct an interview without glorifying their leader. It fake and irritating. My favourite ENGLISH politician (present company excepted) is Rory the Tory. He's polite and appears more interested in his subject than projecting himself or his Party. My least favourite are the narcissists Farage and Boris
  • Options
    Socrates said:

    Guardian writer hates his own country shock:

    "England is dysfunctional, corrupt and vastly unequal. Who on earth would want to be tied to such a country?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

    Monbiot basically proves the point which SeanT was making the other day about the left.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    malcolmg said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    Of English people I have heard giving an opinion I would estimate it has been at least 80% for YES, it appears they are more for it than locals.
    (holds up hand)
    I'm one of them...

    Good on you Barber , it is not about where you were born , it is all about what you want for the future of Scotland. BT trying to make it into a "foreigner" discussion etc is despicable.
    You see it tried by the rabid Tories on here, especially the supposed Scottish ones who do not live here. All bitter and twisted.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason oldies play such a dominant role in our political culture is that they vote. If you get an 80% turnout then their USP is at least diminished.

    There is no question that the oldies are a key part of BT though. I think this is because they remember a time when the UK was a lot more United in the pre-devolution days. At the meeting I was at in Dundee last week Archie MacPherson, the old BBC football commentator was the star turn by a distance.

    Pensions have also been an underrated issue in the campaign. The technical problems that would cause enormous problems for private sector pensions now in deficit in Scotland (pretty much all of them) have probably passed them by but the risks of having your pension paid by something you are no longer a part of has not.

    There was an excellent debate in Dundee yesterday compered by Victoria Derbyshire which my daughter was at. What I found noticeable watching it (and her) on the I-player last night is that as we come to the crunch all of the issues are fading away somewhat and this is becoming a question of whether you want to be British or simply Scottish.

    One of the sources of my nervousness about this is that I am not sure that BT have been positive enough about this throughout the campaign. They have spent their time and energy knocking down the latest gibberish from Salmond and demonstrating its idiocy. In the last 2 weeks they really need to make it clear that we are British and damned proud of it. Archie had no doubt about that and neither do I.

    Ha Ha Ha , A washed up football commentator who everyone laughed their heads off at his wistful memories of 1950. Archie like the unionists is stuck in 1950 , most of Scotland has moved on. In Dundee yesterday the BBC struggled to get NO voters for the audience, BT are washed up they are run by WASP's fixated on the SNP and have missed the point completely. The people are going in a different direction, Labour choosing to be Tories little helpers have destroyed them , it is crumbling and the move is all to YES. Using failed Labour duffers was not a good idea.
    Malcolm, my daughter was there yesterday, were you? The no supporters spilled into the "undecided" camp because there was insufficient seats. Of course one of the supposedly "undecided" admitted that he had already voted yes. No attempt to game the audience there, just the usual lies.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,255
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
    There's actually quite a lot of oil & gas in the EU - it's just that most of it is non-recoverable for various reasons.

    France - for instance - has three active petroleum systems: the Paris Basin, the Aquitane Basin around Bordeaux, and in the South of France around Nice. Unfortunately, these are the three richest parts of France with the highest land prices, and therefore the chance of hydrocarbons being economically recoverable is slim.

    Romania used to be one of the centres of the world oil industry, and therefore is likely to have very considerable potential for uncoventional (tight oil) production. Poland has fantastic potential to be a major gas producer on a 20 year view - and has the major advantage of much lower population density than the UK.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    Will MalcolmG be around on 19th?

    I believe he has mentioned that he is planning a holiday. To be fair it does sound as if he is in need of one!
    Fox, from someone who worships Jack's ARSE , I think you may be the one requiring a vacation.
    I wonder if the fake is faring any better up in Edinburgh, he was very tetchy yesterday via his sock puppet so I presume not going well at all.
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    If Scotland does vote YES, what will happen to UKIP there?

    UKIP does not really exist in Scotland. The Scottish branch and its office-bearers are suspended and it is under the direct control of the central party.

    I suppose that there will be an anti-EU party in Scotland post-independence because I cannot think of a single country that does not have such a party these days. Hard to imagine it ever being a serious player, but who knows? It will be up to Scots voters to decide.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    At present it appears that Salmond (Yes) is strong on passion and weak on facts and Darling (No) is weak on passion and strong on facts. Also Murphy appears to be trying to rectify Darling's weakness.

    Having listened to people like Castro and the recordings of Hitler, the people often followed the passion more than the facts, but came to rue their choice in the end.

    Much has been said of the ensuing poverty due to the benign neglect by Labour in parts of Scotland.

    The hymn, "All things Bright & Beautiful" contains a verse that is now usually omitted due to political correctness.

    "The rich man in his castle,
    The poor man at his gate,
    God made them high and lowly,
    And ordered their estate."

    Wherever I have been on this globe and whether the regime is communist, fascist, dictatorship or democracy, the people at the top usually arranged things (to a greater or lesser degree) that they were the rich ones and the rest were the poor. So if Yes or No wins, I would not expect the rich/poor situation to change markedly in Scotland or rUK.

    The only people who will move across economic boundaries are those who have the initiative and determination to do so, waiting for any form of government to do it for you is a a very false hope.

    Your first couple of lines show your total and utter lack of any knowledge of Scotland and the politics going on there. Murphy is a joke , followed about by a chicken yesterday. NO have no clue and no facts or policies to pass on. Murphy may have done better if he was not constantly lying , at least he has ventured outside the private meetings , but he has no story to tell other than Labour at Westminster are now right wing poodles of the Tories. People know this and hence they treat him and his lies accordingly.
    They'll need more chickens then, as Telegraph reporting that Brown, John Reid and Charlie K are joining the central belt fray:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11071210/Gordon-Brown-and-John-Reid-to-lead-Labour-fightback-against-nationalist-surge.html
    Roll out the losers and has beens , every one of them a joke. If they are that desperate then their private numbers must be dire.
    Ah, Charlie Kennedy; the last leader of a significant party who had principles. Such a shame that he was driven to drink.
    He was on a debate recently, a shell of his former self politically but face puffed up like a balloon , did not look well.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sean_F said:



    Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes. I mean, what positive spin can you place on local councillors and police officers tolerating child-rape? You can polish a turd as much as you like, but it still remains a turd.


    In my experience, community involvement is a good thing, but to get beyond the small slice of people who positively like volunteering to help organise community things ("I had a really good evening with my sewing circle"), you need a really different culture from the "What are They doing for Us? Nothing!" attitude that is prevalent in Britain.
    Shame that you and your friends mocked the Big Society to death then, isn't it.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    If Scotland does vote YES, what will happen to UKIP there?

    UKIP does not really exist in Scotland. The Scottish branch and its office-bearers are suspended and it is under the direct control of the central party.

    I suppose that there will be an anti-EU party in Scotland post-independence because I cannot think of a single country that does not have such a party these days. Hard to imagine it ever being a serious player, but who knows? It will be up to Scots voters to decide.
    They just have one in six of your seats in the European parliament.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014

    Socrates said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    So writes a Swede who happens to have been born in Scotland. Nauseating post.
    Stuart's post seemed a perfectly reasonable argument. No need to call it 'nauseating'.
    The people Dickson speaks of are British but his divisive ideology can't accept that denomination.
    The Norwegians are Scandinavians. Does that mean that a Norwegian who self-identifies and describes himself as a Norwegian rather than as a Scandinavian is being "divisive"?

    You are a European. Why do you persist in describing yourself as British? Do you not realise how divisive you are being?
    You can call yourself Swedish or Scandanavian but since you despise ethnic nationalism you can't in good faith call yourself a Scot.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Sean_F said:



    Most news does not show our political class in an attractive light, and that must help Yes. I mean, what positive spin can you place on local councillors and police officers tolerating child-rape? You can polish a turd as much as you like, but it still remains a turd.

    Mary Riddell has a similarly morose piece here - the title suggests it's anti-Dave, but it's really despondent about everyone, and puts its hope merely in a vague gesture to community involvement:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11070424/David-Camerons-anti-terror-curbs-wont-scare-the-wolf-at-his-door.html

    In my experience, community involvement is a good thing, but to get beyond the small slice of people who positively like volunteering to help organise community things ("I had a really good evening with my sewing circle"), you need a really different culture from the "What are They doing for Us? Nothing!" attitude that is prevalent in Britain. There are various routes to it - my favoured Scandinavian model of collective high-tax high-service society works quite well, but so does the American small-town community of self-reliant individuals, as does the cantonal government system in Switzerland. The common factor is clear consensus that the local system works well, whereas in Britain we have a pretty broad consensus that nothing works well so people just need to look after themselves.

    Traditionally, in Britain this came from churches and groups like Rotary societies and the Roundtable. The problem is a culture set in, particularly among the so-called "metropolitan elite", of mocking such things as being stuffy and old-fashioned. I can't help but see it as an extension of what Orwell mentioned as the English chattering classes having a distaste for their own culture. It also can't have been helped by immigration, which often split up communities along racial and linguistic lines, creating widespread alienation.
    Surely this is what David Cameron's Big Society was about, at least until the omnishambles budget.
    Yes, it was, and it was part of David Cameron at his best. Unfortunately the thing never particularly went anywhere as he couldn't think of effective policies to actually put it into practice.
    I'm struggling to think of policies from central government that would create that sort of active bottom-up culture. Can anyone else think of any?
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    Poor old BettertogetherUKOKNoThanks, every time they set up their negativity skittles, along comes a Yes ball to knock them down.

    'AN INDEPENDENT Scotland would be welcomed into Nato even if it ditched Trident, says a former UK ambassador to the nuclear-based defence alliance.
    Dame Mariot Leslie argues that none of the Nato allies would want to interrupt the organisation’s defence arrangements in the North Atlantic and North Sea by excluding Scotland from the defence pact.
    In a letter in today’s Scotsman, Dame Mariot claims that the other 28 Nato allies would be reluctant not to grant Scotland membership at a time of heightened tension with Russia.
    The former British diplomat, who stepped down as permanent representative to Nato earlier this year, also reveals she will be voting Yes this month on the grounds that Scotland’s geography, economy, demography and politics are “so distinctive” that they are best served by their own sovereign government.'

    http://tinyurl.com/ne6tyna
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    I have never comprehended English commentators who wish to pull the plug on the EU while being happy to see see Scotland vote for independence. Clearly they must believe many pro EU voters reside in Scotland so without them a vote to leave will more likely be won. Actually I suspect the opposite will happen. Unnecessary chaos and dislocation to our economic system will follow a Yes vote and rUK voters are highly unlikely to vote for further upset a year or two down the line. The UK without Scotland would be a vastly diminished place and will undoubtedly hold on to the EU safety net.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Write-up of the Rotherham story in the New York Times:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/world/europe/reckoning-starts-in-britain-on-abuse-of-girls.html?_r=0

    Somehow seeing it from the perspective of a distant observer really brings it home. You have a natural desire to defend your country, but this case is so horrible you know there is utterly no defence that can be attempted.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543

    DavidL said:

    The reason oldies play such a dominant role in our political culture is that they vote. If you get an 80% turnout then their USP is at least diminished.

    There is no question that the oldies are a key part of BT though. I think this is because they remember a time when the UK was a lot more United in the pre-devolution days. At the meeting I was at in Dundee last week Archie MacPherson, the old BBC football commentator was the star turn by a distance.

    Pensions have also been an underrated issue in the campaign. The technical problems that would cause enormous problems for private sector pensions now in deficit in Scotland (pretty much all of them) have probably passed them by but the risks of having your pension paid by something you are no longer a part of has not.

    There was an excellent debate in Dundee yesterday compered by Victoria Derbyshire which my daughter was at. What I found noticeable watching it (and her) on the I-player last night is that as we come to the crunch all of the issues are fading away somewhat and this is becoming a question of whether you want to be British or simply Scottish.

    One of the sources of my nervousness about this is that I am not sure that BT have been positive enough about this throughout the campaign. They have spent their time and energy knocking down the latest gibberish from Salmond and demonstrating its idiocy. In the last 2 weeks they really need to make it clear that we are British and damned proud of it. Archie had no doubt about that and neither do I.

    Very well said DavidL. #proudtobebritish
    How, David, did your daughter think the discussion went? And what was her feel for the way the audience were thinking? You don’t get the same vibes if you’re not there!
    She really enjoyed it although she was very frustrated not to get chosen to ask to speak despite having her hand up almost continuously. She was annoyed that Yes supporters were pretending to be undecided and supposedly influenced by the discussion. The man who ha already voted she found hilarious. Apparently there was a chant of out, out, when he was asked what he was doing in the undecided section that was not obvious on the telly. She found the business person for the Yes team particularly annoying as he was clearly spouting rubbish.

    Her comment was that Victoria Derbyshire was a lot better at keeping control of the argument than the muppet who was in charge of the Salmond/Darling debate and that she used humour well to reduce the heat on occasions. She felt very few minds were changed and it was a bit of a draw with each side sticking to their positions and not moving.
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    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    CRUD

    Your first couple of lines show your total and utter lack of any knowledge of Scotland and the politics going on there. Murphy is a joke , followed about by a chicken yesterday. NO have no clue and no facts or policies to pass on. Murphy may have done better if he was not constantly lying , at least he has ventured outside the private meetings , but he has no story to tell other than Labour at Westminster are now right wing poodles of the Tories. People know this and hence they treat him and his lies accordingly.
    They'll need more chickens then, as Telegraph reporting that Brown, John Reid and Charlie K are joining the central belt fray:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11071210/Gordon-Brown-and-John-Reid-to-lead-Labour-fightback-against-nationalist-surge.html
    Roll out the losers and has beens , every one of them a joke. If they are that desperate then their private numbers must be dire.
    Ah, Charlie Kennedy; the last leader of a significant party who had principles. Such a shame that he was driven to drink.
    He was on a debate recently, a shell of his former self politically but face puffed up like a balloon , did not look well.
    I have been shocked by the state of Charlie Kennedy during the IndyRef. He is but a shadow of his former self. He looks like a broken man.

    That is a huge loss to the No campaign. He is one of very few No politicians who is widely liked, respected and listened to. But he has pretty much nothing to say.

    I just wonder if he even has the stamina to make a decent defence of his seat?

    Ladbrokes - Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy MP, LD Maj over Lab = 13,070)

    LD 1/33
    SNP 10/1
    Lab 33/1
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    HYUFD said:

    Easterross You could say that about domestic news in any US state, German region, Canadian province, even domestic local news in Northumberland and Kent

    The difference of course is that Scotland is a country and the Scots are a nation. Do you not realise how rude you are being by comparing a nation to various administrative units?

    I'm sure that you do realise, which is why you are doing it.
    Stuart , HiFUD is well named
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    How I feel this morning:


    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29044354
    Islamic State beheading of US hostage Sotloff 'authentic'.

    2. Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko says he has agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on a "permanent ceasefire" with rebels.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29042561

    The honours go to Putin, as the creeping annexation will now continue.

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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason oldies play such a dominant role in our political culture is that they vote. If you get an 80% turnout then their USP is at least diminished.

    There is no question that the oldies are a key part of BT though. I think this is because they remember a time when the UK was a lot more United in the pre-devolution days. At the meeting I was at in Dundee last week Archie MacPherson, the old BBC football commentator was the star turn by a distance.

    Pensions have also been an underrated issue in the campaign. The technical problems that would cause enormous problems for private sector pensions now in deficit in Scotland (pretty much all of them) have probably passed them by but the risks of having your pension paid by something you are no longer a part of has not.

    There was an excellent debate in Dundee yesterday compered by Victoria Derbyshire which my daughter was at. What I found noticeable watching it (and her) on the I-player last night is that as we come to the crunch all of the issues are fading away somewhat and this is becoming a question of whether you want to be British or simply Scottish.

    One of the sources of my nervousness about this is that I am not sure that BT have been positive enough about this throughout the campaign. They have spent their time and energy knocking down the latest gibberish from Salmond and demonstrating its idiocy. In the last 2 weeks they really need to make it clear that we are British and damned proud of it. Archie had no doubt about that and neither do I.

    Very well said DavidL. #proudtobebritish
    How, David, did your daughter think the discussion went? And what was her feel for the way the audience were thinking? You don’t get the same vibes if you’re not there!
    She really enjoyed it although she was very frustrated not to get chosen to ask to speak despite having her hand up almost continuously. She was annoyed that Yes supporters were pretending to be undecided and supposedly influenced by the discussion. The man who ha already voted she found hilarious. Apparently there was a chant of out, out, when he was asked what he was doing in the undecided section that was not obvious on the telly. She found the business person for the Yes team particularly annoying as he was clearly spouting rubbish.

    Her comment was that Victoria Derbyshire was a lot better at keeping control of the argument than the muppet who was in charge of the Salmond/Darling debate and that she used humour well to reduce the heat on occasions. She felt very few minds were changed and it was a bit of a draw with each side sticking to their positions and not moving.
    BT supporter calls it "a draw".

    That means that the Yes Scotland team totally wiped the floor with the Bitterists.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229

    TGOHF said:

    Once Scotland votes no the priority must be to sort out parity for England - further devo should be put on the back burner for 5-10 years until this is sorted out in the interests of fairness.

    Ho ho. That is the exact opposite of the fibs Better Together are peddling today.

    But by all means, continue!
    Unlike BT , Flash is speaking the truth of what will happen if NO
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    alexalex Posts: 244
    Are the electorate in this referendum the same as the group of people who will have the right to claim Scottish nationality after Independence? Or are the two groups completely different with many having no right to Scottish nationality, and many ex-pat non voters the reverse?

    Also does anyone know how the suggested dual nationality will happen in practice, and what rights it will give those who claim it? And will individuals, wherever they live have the right to reject "Scottish" nationality if they think it would serve their personal circumstances better? For example, my understanding is that state pensions will be paid out by the Scottish govt after independence (out of current revenue). How would this affect 1) an English pensioner living in Scotland who doesn't claim Scottish nationality 2) A Scottish pensioner living in Scotland who claims dual nationality 3) A Scottish pensioner living in England who doesn't claim dual nationality 4) A Scottish pensioner living in England who does claim dual nationality 5) A "Scottish" pensioner in England or Scotland who rejects Scottish nationality?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Socrates said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
    Ah, read too quickly to notice that requirement. That points to the dodginess of the statistic though: it's foolish to have the peer group as a bunch of nations with mainly land borders.
    I agree Socrates. All I was doing was backing up JJ in answer to the specific point made by Stuart. He only referenced EU oil reserves not European.

    Norway North Sea oil reserves are larger than all the other N.Sea countries combined. And that is before you add in the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea.
    I had dinner with a Norwegian ex-CEO yesterday. He confirmed what I thought was urban legend about them getting the foreign minister drunk and then moving the lines on the map from what had been agreed in the negotiations...
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    Socrates said:

    rogerh said:

    The other large group who Salmond has to persuade are residents of Scotland of English origin.From memory they make up 20% of the electorate and you Gov had them i think 80;20 in the no camp.It could be a repeat of the Quebec referendum where natives of Quebec voted for independence but outsiders tipped the balance to give a narrow no vote.

    20% ?? err... you'll need a rock-solid source for that please.

    The guesstimates I've seen are around the 10% level, and a significant number of them are Yes voters.
    18% non Scotland born, 8 from outside UK, 10 within.

    Both against - UK born in yesterday's YouGov 31:69

    rogerh was claiming that the number of "residents of Scotland of English origin" was 20%, which is clearly total and absolute pants.

    The true figure is probably around 8 or 9%, but that will even include many Scots who happened to be born in England.
    So writes a Swede who happens to have been born in Scotland. Nauseating post.
    Stuart's post seemed a perfectly reasonable argument. No need to call it 'nauseating'.
    The people Dickson speaks of are British but his divisive ideology can't accept that denomination.
    The Norwegians are Scandinavians. Does that mean that a Norwegian who self-identifies and describes himself as a Norwegian rather than as a Scandinavian is being "divisive"?

    You are a European. Why do you persist in describing yourself as British? Do you not realise how divisive you are being?
    You can call yourself Swedish or Scandanavian but since you despise ethnic nationalism you can't in good faith call yourself a Scot.
    The Scots are a civic nation not an ethnic one.

    I'm sure that you do know that, which is why you are trying your luck. In Scandinavia there is a very good word for folk like you: they are sleekit creatures that creep around under rocks and bridges and scare small children. But not, please note, adults.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,229
    MaxPB said:

    Socrates said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 11/4 (various)
    No 3/10 (various)

    Stuart, whilst you are on, do you have any links for your "Scottish waters contain 95% of the European Union's oil reserves" claim from yesterday morning?
    Its not accurate.

    Just taking the proven and probable reserves of the 3 biggest EU oil producers around the North Sea - Denmark, Holland and the UK, the UK as a whole only has around 82% of the total.

    That is before you add in smaller producers such as Italy, Ireland and Romania - the last of which has proven reserves around 5 times that of Holland.

    I would suspect that overall UK oil reserves account for about 60-70% of the current EU total. Scottish reserves would be somewhat less than that given there is a small onshore oil reserve in England and some significant parts of the North Sea Central Graben would fall in English waters.
    I think it's reasonably likely we will see some offshore Ireland discoveries in the next few years which will also change the numbers somewhat.
    If we're talking oil and gas then including England's vast unconventional gas reserves will also have a huge effect on the figures.

    @Socrates, Norway isn't in the EU!
    Ah, read too quickly to notice that requirement. That points to the dodginess of the statistic though: it's foolish to have the peer group as a bunch of nations with mainly land borders.
    Yes, of the North Sea nations I believe Norway ranks first of proven reserves, though I'm sure Richard Tyndall knows better.

    On the subject of oil and gas, and this is a question directed at anyone who knows, what would happen if Orkney and Shetland voted to stay in the union but the mainland voted to leave? Would O&S be forced to become part of iScot or would Salmond respect their vote to remain as part of the union. Bear in mind that O&S has half of all proven oil reserves.
    Given they have no opportunity to vote for that option it is a pretty stupid concept and given that in your imaginary world they had the option then under international law they would only get a few miles of waters around their shores and therefore would be unpopulated in a few years.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    alex said:

    How would this affect 1) an English pensioner living in Scotland who doesn't claim Scottish nationality 2) A Scottish pensioner living in Scotland who claims dual nationality 3) A Scottish pensioner living in England who doesn't claim dual nationality 4) A Scottish pensioner living in England who does claim dual nationality 5) A "Scottish" pensioner in England or Scotland who rejects Scottish nationality?

    It wont. There is no nationality test for pension payments.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Once Scotland votes no the priority must be to sort out parity for England - further devo should be put on the back burner for 5-10 years until this is sorted out in the interests of fairness.

    Ho ho. That is the exact opposite of the fibs Better Together are peddling today.

    But by all means, continue!
    Unlike BT , Flash is speaking the truth of what will happen if NO
    I know. Respect to Flash, but he will not be popular with the enforcers.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Socrates said:

    Guardian writer hates his own country shock:

    "England is dysfunctional, corrupt and vastly unequal. Who on earth would want to be tied to such a country?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

    Monbiot basically proves the point which SeanT was making the other day about the left.
    Monbiot came to live in a small town in west Wales which was the home of Middle Ages Welsh independency.

    Proclaiming his Green credentials and proclaiming the benefits of public transport - he bought a large car. He has nigh no interaction with the locals and stays remote.
This discussion has been closed.