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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg makes clear that the LDs want the coalition to continue right up to GE2015
So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg is clearly not going to provide a supply and confidence arrangement should the Tories break the deal unilaterally.
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May 2015 is the date.
I've always viewed it as a marriage of convenience
For what it is worth I do not think it is that likely that the Lib Dems will dump Clegg and pull the plug on the Coalition early, but that option is still on the table.
On the other stuff including Europe, Cameron again showed that amongst his contemporaries he really has no equal in dealing with these kinds of interviews. Very Blair like, though not quite as polished or as in control of events as the Great Tone.
"The one alternative scenario I can envisage is Cameron being ditched as CON leader and his replacement, Hammond perhaps, getting a polling honeymoon. "
Let's see in GE2015 - I think that's incredible wishful thinking on your part that Cameron will be deposed in favour of anyone else. Still, happy betting to the contrary.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-22607847
Option B or C please.
The 'marriage' that Mike refers to has never been between the two parties but is much more personal - primarily a very close working relationship between Clegg and Cameron, but also between their respective inner circles. To the extent that it is a marriage, it remains strong on that level, it's just that the two principles are becoming increasingly irritated with their two families (but both need them).
Even so, events are not entirely within either man's control. I don't believe either Clegg or Cameron wants to break up the coalition before the general election. Whether the backbench Tory MPs or the Lib Dem activists at Conference will think differently - and act on that thought - is a different matter.
One MP said the past two weeks could prove terminal to Mr Cameron’s leadership. “Our chances of winning the next election are evaporating,” the MP said.
Several MPs said they expected a flurry of letters to be sent to Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, demanding Mr Cameron’s resignation. If Mr Brady were to receive 46 such letters, it would trigger a vote of no confidence.
BenM
What was Cameron saying about the EU? Cheers
It would be the greatest betrayal since Brutus stabbed Caesar in the front.
To be fair, Nick Clegg has been entirely consistent about this since May 2010 - the Coalition is for a full five years and that's how it's going to be. One can almost hear the palpable groans from the UKIP-inclined as their moment starts to slip away from them.
It is, as always, "the economy, stupid" and many voters will forgive almost anything if there is a feeling about that on a personal level their financial situation is improving. If the Conservative backbenchers want to end the Coalition, they're going to have to grow a pair and stab the Prime Minister in the back and in the front at the same time. Clegg's speech makes it clear that they're going to have to do their own dirty work and frankly I doubt any of them have the stomach for it.
Still some uncertainty over the Xbox (how many games will need a constant connection and whether there will be a pre-owned fee for games/how would it work).
German software company SAP says it hopes to recruit hundreds of people with autism, saying they have a unique talent for information technology.
The firm said that by 2020, 1% of its global workforce of 65,000 employees would be people with autism.
Autism is a developmental disorder that can cause problems with social interaction and physical behaviour.
However, some people with the condition are highly intelligent and have a keen attention to detail.
SAP executive Luisa Delgado said the company believed that "innovation comes from the edges".
She added: "Only by employing people who think differently and spark innovation will SAP be prepared to handle the challenges of the 21st Century."
SAP has already hired six people with autism at its office in Bangalore, India, where they work as software testers.
The firm said its productivity had increased as a result of their efforts, and it now plans to take on more such staff in other countries.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22621829
How many on here exhibit these traits? :-)
Incidentally, as BenM (rather surprisingly) points out, anyone who doubts Cameron's talents should listen to the Today interview of this morning with an open mind.
As for rental games, it's telling that few in the industry realise that Microsofts stance could very easily be matched by Sony's. Sony has not ruled out paying an activation fee for rental games. They merely confirmed that the PS4 would play them in some form.
The other telling thing was that Microsoft lined up some of the best selling franchises in games today with the likes of FIFA, Madden, Forza, Halo, Call of Duty. Those 'casual' games are worth hundreds of millions.
It's way to early to tell since E3 will be where the launch lineups are cemented and details get more concrete.
What the launch also confirmed was that Microsoft would be paying little to no attention to the Japanese market with a heavily US centric press conference. That helps explain Sony's stock rise.
David Cameron has just completed an interview on the Today programme in which he demonstrated why – despite the swivel-eyed lunacy of the past week – he is likely to still be Prime Minister after 2015.
He was proud, he said, of his decision to push forward with gay marriage. Young gay boys (and girls) would be walking that bit taller this morning.
There would be no more flip-flopping on Europe. There would be one referendum and one timetable. That would not be changing.
There would be no more abuse of Nigel Farage and Ukip. Their challenge would be confronted, but not dismissed.
And there would be no more abuse of his activists. He did not only admire them, he was “one of them”, he claimed.
Obviously a single radio interview is not going to repair the damage of the past few days. But it has put them into perspective.
There will be no more legislative distractions. The economy, along with welfare and education, would be the Prime Minister’s priority over the next two years, he said. And the fact he now feels able to focus on the economy with confidence tells it own, very important, story.
David Cameron was also able to deploy a narrative that we shall hear a lot over the next 24 months, and it is a compelling one. “I’m prepared to take tough decisions, and if necessary confront my own party, to do what I think is right.” That is not a claim Ed Miliband can credibly make at this time.
But the most significant thing about David Cameron’s performance was that it reminded his party what the Conservative party’s strongest asset will be at the 2015 election. It will be David Cameron...
I have no idea whether this is true or not, but your response misses the substance of his accusation.
From 2014, 102 new free schools are set to open after being granted approval from the Department for Education.
England currently has 81 free schools, with another 109 set to open in September.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-22607964
Meanwhile another 20 months or so will be the time needed for UKIP to consolidate and then grow as a party and organisation. No Mr Stodge, the moment will not slip away for UKIP, 2014 will bring the EU elections and further big changes.
On rental/pre-owned games for the PS4, that's depressed me a little. However, they'd be fools to do so now, because that's a differentiating factor that plays strongly to their favour.
Of course, console-makers are very capable of being foolish.
Although it's probably more costly, I'd got for option C, heading across the Thames between Gravesend and the ruins of Shornmead fort. This opens up more areas for development both north and south of the Thames, and provides a much more logical route for people travelling from the A1 to Dover.
For those wanting to see the options, there is a map at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/200489/map-of-options.pdf
Borrowing for 2012-13 revised down a smidge but nothing to crow about.
The more US tv I see, the smaller the pool of regular actors appears - I used to see maybe a handful of regulars, now its almost every series with at least one familiar face.
It gone further than simply the genre, timeframe or network I'm watching - its everywhere. is it my imagination or have casting decisions been concentrated in fewer hands these days?
Thanks for the Depeche Mode review in the last thread. I saw them at the O2 in Dec 2009 and thought it was great, when are you seeing them next week? I'm on the 29th.
Here's a set of pics I took in 2009:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&search=Sunil060902+Depeche&redirs=1&profile=default
Will check out tunnelbear.
The problem is if they try to kill the rental market without having that aggressive shift in pricing in place to soften the blow. That's why it is not a simple proposition for either company as they simply will not have a large back catalogue of games on their new systems to retail at a discount price while developers for the new systems will incur an extremely heavy cost for the increased workload and staffing the greater levels of complexity the new systems necessitate. For that reason there will be no big discounts on those systems for a while with the publishers using a cross platform approach to use the existing sales and huge base on the PS3 and 360 to effectively subsidise their development on the new systems.
Our big 3 parties are so busy fighting for who gets the 40% of voters in the middle that the needs and wants of the 30% at either end are being neglected. Then they wonder at the rise of parties like ukip. Frankly I am going to laugh myself silly if UKIP manage to give them all an electoral enema
From my perch in north Kent I've always been bemused at just how far away the likes of Southend etc feel, even though I can see the town when looking north from the M2 past the Medway services.
There's a lot of industry (and hence employment) along the Thames at this point, both north and south of the river, but there is no way I'd consider a job in Essex (although some people do the commute across every day of course) and no doubt the feeling is mutual in the likes of Thurrock, Grays, Canvey Island etc.
Until he does, we're NOTA or Kipper voters judging by the polls. I like him as a chap a lot, but he's just not even in the same chapter as me, nevermind the page.
It's like with a packet of revels. The second one that you draw from the bag is most likely to be different to the first, but once you are halfway through the bag the chances are you have already had one of each type of revel, and so all subsequent revels will be a repeat of one you have already tasted.
At the end of the day, look at what he is trying to do. Even if he only makes good progress on these issues rather than solving them we'll be a better country for it:
- Economy: rebalancing towards the private sector, reducing the deficit
- Welfare: trying to break the dependency model
- Education: giving kids from less advantaged background the chance for a great education
- Europe: giving the people a say (albeit delayed)
- Social issues: helping demonstrate Britain is a more tolerant society
For a soft-right voter, really, what's there not to like?
For example - Reggie Lee is the lacky cop in Grimm, he was the evil Mr Kim in Prison Break and has popped up elsewhere. I find myself seeing the same cast of actors all over the place and when once I'd think 'hmm I've seen them somewhere else' - I can now name several series off the top of my head.
That can't be good for emerging talent if the casting bods are playing safe or using a house-system as it did decades ago.
The revised borrowing figures are that the deficit, excluding special factors, was down by £1.4bn, compared to the earlier estimate of £0.3bn. This is a fairly large difference, when you consider that at the new rate the deficit will be erased by 2099, rather than 2415 under the previous estimate.
And he's demonstrated that he's not by his own actions. Minimum alcohol pricing? FFS. That was the final straw on top of stuff like sugar or fat tax noises. It's pretty clear that Mr Cameron thinks he knows better than we do what is allowable re our own diet - that's not personal responsibility at all.
If I wanted more New Labour - I'd have voted for it.
He rather got away with the radical reforming government that seems to have pretty much run out of legislation in 3 years too.
A very poor effort by an interviewer who is past it.
Doormats couldn't be more tamer that Naughty this morning. I bet if Farrage was being interviewed by him, Naughty would come out as a roaring lion.
Well reminded, as DC himself did this morning. Now he has to deliver on his main messages. I hope he read those threads on here about getting the barnacles off the boat!
I voted for less, not more of being told what to do - and the LDs are even worse for sticking their oar into my life. No wonder so many like me are polling Kipper or NOTA - dismissing our concerns isn't working for any of the Big Three. We want less Government, not more.
The problem is all the other voters who will turn out on May 7th 2015 and what they will do after three or four weeks of being told what a vote for UKIP will really mean (as distinct from what Nigel Farage will say) which is a Labour Government and an even stronger commitment to Europe and the likelihood of neither re-negotiation nor a referendum. Once that has been drummed into the electorate, most of the party's current support which is, as with most midterm protest votes, a mile wide and an inch deep, will either run back whence it came or simply stay at home.
Yes, I can see UKIP polling 5% and they might even win a seat or two with luck but the idea of breaking any kind of mould isn't going to happen and as you and I watch Ed Miliband return to Downing Street from Buckingham Palace on the afternoon of Friday May 8th 2015, we can reflect on the fact that both our parties will be spending the next five years as irrelevancies on the political margins and derive such comfort as we can from that.
Public Finances
Excellent figures on both the Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) and the Public Sector currrent budget deficit.
PSNB in April 2013 was a billion pounds less than April 2012 (after adjusting for the Post Offiice Pension assets transfer, the winding up of the BoE Special Liquidity Scheme).
Even better still the underlying deficit - the metric of Osborne's primary fiscal mandate - tumbled!
Public sector current budget deficit was £5.6 billion in April 2013; this is a £2.5 billion lower deficit than in April 2012, when there was a deficit of £8.2 billion.
Remember how, in March, the OBR and all the Conways and his equivalent Beeboids were predicting the deficit flat-lining for the next two years?
"Osborne is not reducing the deficit", you and tim crowed. Well he is. At the current rate, the deficit is being reduced by £30 billion per year.
And that is in a month where GDP growth is somewhere around 0.3% (ONS) - 0.5% (NIESR).
With the economic recovery only in second gear, you would expect the rate of deficit reduction to increase rather than decrease over the next two years in line with existing, let alone revised, GDP growth forecasts.
And add to all this the icing on the fruitcake: the second ONS revision of the 2012-2013 borrowing figures confirming that Osborne undershot on all his key borrowing metrics last fiscal year.
So nothing to crow about at all, Ben. We should all instead be standing open mouthed in awe and wonder before the boy prodigy and celebrate that he has been sent upon this world to deliver us all from Labour's sins.
Retail Sales
Up by 0.5% volume and 1.3% value on a yearly basis but down when comparing April 2013 with March 2013.
Almost wholly due to food sales falling and in line with Visa Consumer Expenditure Index and British Retail Consortium figures earlier this month.
Retailers have pointed out that this is mainly due to adverse weather conditions (April had the cold weather this year, March last) and, more importantly, the Easter weekend fell in March this year and April last accounting for the shift in food purchasing patterns.
Apart from food and weather related sales, all other categories of purchase were in line with expectations and consistent with the underlying picture of a general economic recovery gathering momentum.
Dance, Ben, dance and rejoice at this news.
The non-existent story of the month is the Great Real Time Tax Reporting Shambles.
Not everyone has an internet connection. I know that most people in developed countries have an at least patchy connection, but even in the US huge numbers of people still have dial-up. In less developed countries the numbers will be even worse. Downloading games would take too long to be practical in such situations, and if there are no physical copies to use (in the future) then the games industry (and AAA titles are already costing so much to make millions of sales still yield a loss) will be reducing its pool of consumers.
Farage was interviewed by Jeremy Vine (who I quite like) yesterday and the "questions" were, more or less, a controversial quote from a UKIP councillor followed by "What have you got to say about that?"
Farage handled it well actually
The previous time he was was interviewed on the BBC was the scottish nonsense (the one that derailed the rise of UKIP....)
Yet everyone is saying UKIP get a free ride from the media?!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Gateway_Bridge
The reasons cited for cancellation included local opposition, insufficient funding, projected detrimental effects on traffic flow, and concerns over the bridge's location and environmental impact.
But it also says:
Despite having abandoned the bridge the previous year, saying he favoured a tunnel crossing at Silvertown, Johnson resurrected the project, renamed Gallions Reach, as a lower capacity crossing that could start as a ferry service, but which could be upgraded to a fixed link later.
Labour's messing up of GP contracts didn't help, of course.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10013550/Anna-Soubry-Minimum-alcohol-pricing-is-still-Government-policy.html
I see Tim has done the work for me.
The ONS borrowing document is almost impenetrable which is why I'd held off posting about April month's figures.
As for a single quarter's growth - in a recovery that should be sailing closer to 1.0% not sloshing around the bottom at 0.3%. Nothing to crow about there either.
If UKIP poll 5% they are winning zero seats. (Even up to 15%) 20%+ and they take 2+. 15 - 20 probably 1 but depends on their voting variance.
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
I quoted the relevant figures directly from the ONS bulletin so refer downthread to the right figures.
The figure Hugh Pym is referring to is contained in the following paragraph. He clearly got so excited by the thought of borrowing increasing that he forgot to read to the end.
After removing the impacts of the transfer relating to the BEAPFF, public sector net borrowing in April 2013 was £10.2 billion; this is £1.3 billion higher net borrowing than the figure in April 2012 with the impacts of the Royal Mail pension transfer removed. However, also removing the effect of the SLS transfer from April 2012 results in April 2013 being £1.0 billion lower than in April 2012.
The problem he faced is that two of the non-recurring Treasury cash receipts (Royal Mail pension assets transfer and SLS wind down) occurred during April 2012, which then recorded a £19.5 billion surplus for the month as a result. All of these need stripping out from both sets of monthly figures to get to the underlying reduction in borrowing.
Poor Hugh. He may get it right next time. I live in hope.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100218086/david-cameron-has-shown-why-he-will-fight-the-next-election-as-tory-leader-and-why-he-will-probably-win/
Not including SLS in the figures - why not leave out VAT receipts too ?
Don't panic tim the IMF report will be out soon slagging off the Uk economy - we shoukd look to more sucsessful European economies like Narnia or Liliput.
"In essence, gay marriage has redefined “social progress” to mean imposing an elite block on tyrannical public passions, to mean having the right-minded rulers of society keep in check the wrongheadedness of society’s inhabitants. This echoes the social engineering disguised as social progress that was promoted by Fabian types in the early 20th century far more than it does the true social progress pursued by the Suffragettes or Rosa Parks. It is not social progress at all, really – it is social demarcation, a way for the great and the good to distinguish themselves from the thick and the old..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/brendanoneill2/100218031/congratulations-gay-marriage-campaigners-you-have-completely-destroyed-the-meaning-of-social-progress/
What the retailers are wittering on about is that consumers deferred certain types of spring sales (they give BBQ equipment and spring clothes as examples) from April this year due to the cold weather whereas - as you point out - last year many of these purchases were brought forward to March due to the clemency of the gods.
I am never entirely convinced by these types of explanation but the credibility of this story this time is at least enhanced by the ONS, Visa and the BRC all singing the same song.
I entirely agree that they would be locking themselves out of a great many consumers by ignoring the patchy levels of internet service IF they were to try to move instantly to digital only publishing and always on for their consoles. They aren't though. The PS4 and xbox one is the generation that will bridge the gap and see the big shift in emphasis. The always on and system updates will be reduced to that which a low(ish) quality connection can handle periodically while those publishers who take the risk of making their games always on have the example of Sim City to caution them.
There is also the existing model whereby games get discounted at retail after time to a lower price point by shifting them to a 'value' range with game of the year editions etc. That will increase, particularly if rental or second hand is curbed.
The sheer size of AAA games will stop all but the fastest connections at the moment but the console makers are relying on an ever increasing roll out of fiber and other internet infrastructure improvements in the next 5-10 years to push their greater emphasis on digital only publishing. The developers and publishers will be more than happy to eventually cut out the retail shipping physical and materials costs but they won't be doing so for a while. They are also going big on DLC and other profitable game additions that digital retail provides in the meantime.
The other thing to remember is that both Sony and Microsoft are including a huge amount of console features for their new online services for the PS4 and xbox one because they have made a massive amount of money from them in subscriptions and other digital retail partnerships and opportunities. Not everyone can take advantage of those at the moment either if they have a less than satisfactory internet connection, but more than enough do so to make such a focus very profitable.
The most astute move would be to limit the need for a fast connection as much as they can while maximising the opportunities available to those who do enjoy a decent or very good connection. I would expect that to be the model which both companies follow. They will then gradually shift the focus more and more to digital over time as infrastructure hopefully improves.
PC games are growing ever more profitable and flourishing by following the Steam based model. The death of rental need not be a severe blow as long as both companies have an aggressive new pricing model to facilitate it rather than crassly trying to force gamers into it.
It's also far from a certainty either company are going to try and kill rental and used games yet anyway. Rumour and supposition are merely filling the gap in information right now.
Both the SLS and the Royal Mail Pension transactions need stripping out to get a like for like comparison.
Londoners will like this...
The fact remains that for all the current hype and hysteria and the turmoil it has produced on the Conservative side (most of it manifesting pre-existing inner tensions), we simply don't know how the UKIP vote will stand the sustained assault of a general election campaign and the message that the Conservative campaign will produce ad nauseam which, as you and everyone alse on here knows, will be "Vote UKIP get Labour" or you could have "A UKIP vote is a wasted vote". UKIP will have to stand and fight that in a way it hasn't had to thus far.
I tend to agree - but I will ask for you to see if your impression is right. Have a private meeting set up with Miss Cameron D in the next month (her request) and will find out.
The policy was dropped due to opposition from the Home Secretary, a judgement by someone (presuably different?) at a senior level saying that the political cost was too high. It may be "official policy" (whatever that means) but it isn't going to happen