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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 711 (53% +16%), Labour 320 (24% -9%), Conservative 117 (9% -9%), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 112 (8%), Green 94 (7% -5%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 391 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Read the full story here


Comments

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Popular candidate – or are the Red Lib Dems returning ‘home’ …?

    Author?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    EdM's dismal approval ratings are starting to catch up with Labour. Who wants Hollande 2.0 ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    LibDems - Grinning here!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT @MikeK ... re: your friend Helen

    I want them to keep on marching.
    I want LibLabCon wiped out.
    Forever.

    Hmmh. Right wing. Likes marching. Wants a one-party state.

    Rings a bell.

    Didn't they try that before somewhere?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Yesy but let's not get carried away by one local by-election.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Milton Keynes mayor (LD) resigns over rape by a taxi driver.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-28983417

    Why not something similar by the honourable Rotherham Councillors?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Very good LibDem result. As with the Populus poll (fieldwork 27-28 Aug) I'd be cautious in extrapolating, in the same way as it'd be unwise to extrapolate from the 2-point rise in Labour lead in YouGov (fieldwork 27-28 Aug). It's been a turbulent week and it makes sense in polling terms to see how things settle next week.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I must have missed this when it first happened: Britain's first white honour killing victim

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736337/Police-tsar-says-girl-abused-11-First-victim-waive-anonymity-says-needs-face-music.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Afternoon all :)

    Well, it's been an interesting week, hasn't it ?

    As regards Clacton, for all the bravado, it represents a calculated risk for UKIP and Carswell because it's not just about winning, it's all about winning. We often talk about a "personal vote" on here and I'm sure that exists but the extent of it isn't easy to quantify especially when the person involved switches parties.

    So what proportion of the 53% or so who voted Conservative in 2010 would now vote for Carswell and what proportion of the 25% who voted Labour and the 13% who voted LD ? In truth, we don't know and a low-turnout European Parliamentary election may be nothing more than a red herring.

    As someone on here has doubtless already opined, the best result for the Conservatives is a Carswell defeat (whether it's to their own candidate or to Labour probably doesn't matter that much). Therein lies the risk for UKIP - defeat for Carswell and it's all over for him and Farage in truth.

    It's not without risk for Labour - they can afford not to win but not to lose badly. A scrap for second with the Conservatives in the wake of Carswell looks the most likely outcome and that might be enough for Ed M.

    The Conservatives have an opportunity to take down Farage and UKIP in one fell swoop but there's a big problem in that coming a moderate third isn't what you want months before an election and all the small poll leads and the trend being your friend would disappear in the sense of crisis that would engulf the post-Conference season. Only one person wins from that and it's not Douglas Carswell.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    dr_spyn said:

    Out of curiosity I looked at Harman's Twitter feed.

    Harriet Harman @HarrietHarman · Aug 27
    Rotherham: support victims, prosecute criminals, hold to account those in authority who failed, learn lessons.

    Is she serious? Wonder if she backs silent Ed.

    Harman's not Jewish, so there's not the same sensitivity about her criticising Muslims as there is with silent Ed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Was the successful candidate someone well-known locally?

    Or, to put it another way, this was obviously a very good result for the LibDems, but how much can we extrapolate from it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    YouGov's Peter Kellner says Carswell will win the by-ekection easily. That's good enough for me. The only question is the margin of victory. If it's fairly small I don't see many other Tory MPs taking the plunge, but a landslide would probably mean another 5-10 defections.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited August 2014
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/rotherham-sex-abuse-monster-flies-4126300

    This makes me want to throw things:

    'No they’ll not come for me - you can’t touch me.'

    From the scum that got three and a half years for these unspeakable crimes.

    Where is the brave MP that will stand up and call for a major change in the law? As SeanT says, our society is diseased. As Sean Fear says, we need to clean the stables:

    - A full inquiry covering all cities in the UK where this has happened
    - A full police investigation from an external police force in Rotherham, with concerns about "community sensitivity" thrown out the window
    - Fifty year sentences for child rape
    - An end to concurrent sentencing
    - An end to luxuries in prison for child rapists
    - A new criminal offence for those in positions of responsibility that fail to act on major crimes
    - An independent watchdog that can investigate people at all levels of government and ban them from public service for life in cases of gross negligence

    That would be a start. Where is the brave MP calling for this sort of action? So far not one of those has been willing to rock the boat. Out of some six hundred odd. It's pathetic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Some good news - anti-ebola drug is reportedly 100% effective in monkeys, even in later stages of the disease:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-28980153
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    EdM's dismal approval ratings are starting to catch up with Labour. Who wants Hollande 2.0 ?

    What is the obsession with Hollande? Most polls show that 98.23 per cent of British voters don't know what is happening in France, and the other 1 and bit per cent don't care. Their economy is around the same size as ours and has been for as long as anyone can remember. I really can't see the French comparisons shifting a single vote.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov's Peter Kellner says Carswell will win the by-ekection easily. That's good enough for me. The only question is the margin of victory. If it's fairly small I don't see many other Tory MPs taking the plunge, but a landslide would probably mean another 5-10 defections.

    I wouldn't go rushing in to take the 1/4 or whatever. A few vox pops mean nothing and neither even does the European Parliamentary election result. Yes, Carswell has a personal vote but the Conservatives are not going to let him have the win without a fight and neither should they.

    Clacton isn't Newark but the Tories will seek to mobilise their army of activists into a seat with an existing presence (unlike UKIP at Newark), not all of whom will be seduced into the UKIP fold by Carswell. The 2010 labour voters will be the key - will they stay with Labour or break for UKIP or even consider voting tactically for a Conservative if they see a way of beating Carswell ?

    There are enough imponderables to make Kellner's prediction risky in my view.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    The word "Asian" isn't very precise. Here is a list from the Wiki of Asian countries:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_in_Asia
  • manfrommanfrom Posts: 9
    re: Noth Jesmond by-election. Labour cllrs here are accusing Lib Dems of fixing the date of the by-election to be held whilst students, who make up a large percentage of the population, are away on holiday. The Labour cllrs believe the result might have been different if the election was held in, say, October.
  • manfrommanfrom Posts: 9
    Lib Dem Councillors are claiming that on the basis of the same swing across Newcastle, Nick Brown would lose his seat...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @manfrom welcome to pb.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    stodge said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov's Peter Kellner says Carswell will win the by-ekection easily. That's good enough for me. The only question is the margin of victory. If it's fairly small I don't see many other Tory MPs taking the plunge, but a landslide would probably mean another 5-10 defections.

    I wouldn't go rushing in to take the 1/4 or whatever. A few vox pops mean nothing and neither even does the European Parliamentary election result. Yes, Carswell has a personal vote but the Conservatives are not going to let him have the win without a fight and neither should they.

    Clacton isn't Newark but the Tories will seek to mobilise their army of activists into a seat with an existing presence (unlike UKIP at Newark), not all of whom will be seduced into the UKIP fold by Carswell. The 2010 labour voters will be the key - will they stay with Labour or break for UKIP or even consider voting tactically for a Conservative if they see a way of beating Carswell ?

    There are enough imponderables to make Kellner's prediction risky in my view.

    2010 Labour voters voting tactically for a former UKIP now Conservative in order to defeat a former Conservative now UKIP candidate? I think not, although that candidate scenario in any case seems very likely to turn out to be a figment of Mr Lord's imagination.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/roger-lord-ukips-original-clacton-candidate-may-defect-tories
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Interesting to note so many kippers posting their belief that the good Mr Lord is at least one finger short of a full kitkat. Strange they never noticed until he got in the way of a potential seat in Westminster.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Was the successful candidate someone well-known locally?

    Or, to put it another way, this was obviously a very good result for the LibDems, but how much can we extrapolate from it?

    Yes. He's been a councillor before. He said afterwards that the big local issue had been a scheme by the Labour council to introduce communal bins - not popular.
  • ExpatGeordieExpatGeordie Posts: 1
    Sorry but this result is not as significant as is being suggested. Jesmond is not your typical northern ward it is leafy, prosperous and thoroughly middle class. Labour has only ever won here in the darkest days of the Major Government and the very early years of Blair. Even during the 80's it elected Tories and for the Lib Dems to win here now is the very least they should be doing as the only real opposition to Labour in the North.
This discussion has been closed.