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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not only will the future of the UK be determined on Septemb
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line
Great article on the IndyRef betting on the PoliticalBookie – the blog of Shadsy, a PB regular and the man who runs the politics desk at Ladbrokes.
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a) the markets shift the NO odds out
and
b) at the same time the polls don't show much more tightening.
This is possible if substantive optimist money on YES does exist.
On the other hand to back YES, at least as part of a hedging move does have more logic. The odds are not too bad and the YES campaign have nothing to lose and there is one TV debate to go so can throw the kitchen sink at it.
Scotland is going to get rid of nuclear weapons, yet still sign up to the NATO nuclear umbrella. Independence will allow Scotland to become a Nordic-style state, yet is also necessary to fight the "privatisation" of the NHS, where "privatisation" means the introduction of private healthcare companies like they have in the Nordic countries. The UK is an unfair country because of its unrepresentative FPTP electoral system, while the Tories' one MP in Scotland is representative of their lack of support there. Scotland gets a bad deal out of the UK because it pays in more to the exchequer than it gets out, and the UK is run for the benefit of London, whose net contribution is many, many times larger.
The end result is a national strategy for independence that is cloudy and unreliable. The Scottish public have concluded that they can not trust the SNP with such a jump into the unknown.
Tick tock
Salmond v Darling: BBC 2; 8.30pm - 10,00pm.
Sound like at least a 15 round bout.
Referee is Glenn Campbell of BBC Scotland who presents the Scottish Section of The Politics Show.
https://doc-0o-b4-docs.googleusercontent.com/docs/securesc/ha0ro937gcuc7l7deffksulhg5h7mbp1/ulfit0pqodfk4d9jt8j6f9j9kimevc73/1408896000000/03826558544480309437/*/0BxhlO2qUM88wTmhyd01JMU1Ra00?h=16653014193614665626&e=download
The NHS would be safer in:
Independent Scotland: 32
UK: 42.
I expect they'll publish them any day soon........
US journalist held in Syria for some time has reportedly been freed.
By who? Rumour has it Jabhat Al Nusra, a Syrian born Islamist radical offshoot which reportedly has links to Al Qaeda and an outfit the US blacklisted and pointed to to deny support to insurgents.
Reportedly the Qataris have been on the case to get this guy out. Is this a one off or is it part of a deal? The US have offered insurgents weapons and also, reportedly, to attack a number of Assad targets if they get fully on board with the fight against IS. It isn't as if the other insurgents havent been clashing with IS as it is but the latter offer is a tricky one if true.
This is an interesting development.
O/T Had a fascinating afternoon at Berkeley Castle, Gloucestershire, scene of the murder of Kind Edward II in 1342, allegedly by a red hot poker, and home of the Berkeley family since Saxon times (1 was a former governor of Virginia, another gave his name to University of California at Berkeley). Next door is the house of Dr Jenner, who discovered the smallpox vaccine
"O/T Had a fascinating afternoon at Berkeley Castle, Gloucestershire, scene of the murder of Kind Edward II in 1342, allegedly by a red hot poker, and home of the Berkeley family since Saxon times (1 was a former governor of Virginia, another gave his name to University of California at Berkeley). Next door is the house of Dr Jenner, who discovered the smallpox vaccine"
There is a co-incidence. I was reading about poor old Edward II's murder in bed last night. Did you know that Thomas Berkeley was paid five pounds a day for housing Edward, a vast sum at the time and, though he was not involved in the murder, he continued to be paid the daily rate until the body was removed from the castle, which was nearly a month later (no church or monastery would accept it until the Bishop of Gloucester eventually agreed). Clever people the Berkeley's though perhaps lacking in the olfactory department.
Is the castle worth a visit?
Dunno if anyone's linked to this yet, but there's an interesting youtube film with James Kelly attempting to explain why the polls might be wrong. I think he makes some very reasonable points.
A bit one-sided obviously, but he's not pretending to be neutral, so that's OK.
http://youtu.be/Rhyg5WA47qA
Someone posted a comment saying they thought 10% of voters were over 60.
In fact the majority of people who vote in British elections are probably over 50, so it maybe as much as a third of voters over 60.
As for the means of Edwards death, I have never been convinced by the red hot poker, which seems first to have been promulgated in a play by Marlowe. It just seems too lurid and too impractical to me. Something that fits nicely into a play to excite the audience but not to a bunch of blokes who need to kill someone. It does seem certain that the order for the murder originated from Mortimer and the Queen (his lover and Edward's wife) but was actually given by Bishop Orleton (a very old mate of Mortimer's and the bloke who sprang him form the Tower). The instruction may have included, "leave no mark" but, in the days before post mortems a pillow over the face was probably good enough (see the death of Richard II a generation later).
The idea that Edward escaped and spent his last years as a monk in Italy comes up from time to time, but I am not aware of a shred of credible evidence to support it. Politically it would make no sense for any of the players involved.
Oh, one last little thing Berkeley Square in Mayfair is so named because of the London home of the Berkeley family that stood on or near the spot where it was laid out. So the next time you visit Annnabelle's for a night out or Jack Barclay's to order your new Roller or pop into Benares for an Indian (I wouldn't bother, you can get better in your local curry house) then you are walking into a bit of XIVth century history.
Although I will be voting NO I fear there has been a dismissive attitude shown by the powers that be in Westminster and as Colin Fox the SSP leader has said, the Scottish middle class may waken up on 19th September and get the biggest shock of its collective life.
I decided to change from my permanent proxy to a permanent postal vote. Every council office has been instructed to scan all forms received straight into the electoral roll. I handed my form in last Friday morning and by lunchtime had the regional office on the phone to double check I wanted a permanent postal vote instead of my proxy.
Hmm. Just realised the debate clashes with The 100, which I have been commanded by someone or other here to keep watching. Nevertheless, I shall check it during the advert breaks.
Look at supposed Labour big beast in Labour heartlands, see how popular they are and what is really happening
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPL1tbjD_lM
Not that surprising that 20% won't vote - bizarre though it seems to us, quite a few people genuinely do not give a toss about any aspect of political life, possibly including what country they're in. They feel that people in power do what they like anyway and ordinary people should just get on with enjoying life and ignoring the political stuff.
They would probably be just as bemused that I don't know any footballers...
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/09/25/article-0-0E14001900000578-749_306x535.jpg
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-lanow-ln-earthquake-earlywarning-system-gave-10second-alert-before-napa-quake-felt-20140824-story.html
You can now predict earthquakes (well its a warning really).
I may be deluded but it seems to get more and more likely that there will be some very surprised people come 19th.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28919831
Interesting too that a German believed held by IS in Syria since 2013 has been released for a 'substantial consideration' though the German government denies it paid cash.
The way ebola is contracted, washing hands goes a long way to prevent it from spreading.
RIP
General election turnout is say 75%, are pollsters finding that number in their trawl?
A damn good film and so full of what HMG thought the UK was like at the time, and were they wrong? It is available on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOeg3GGI7AY
Noel Coward, John Mills, Bernard Miles and, of course, Dicky Attenborough, who would want to miss it.
Sad times abound - although today's PL league table would have made the old man smile...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PLvdmifDSk
Panels 'may' be representative. But if panels are not finding the 30% who do not vote then it is more by good luck than good judgement isn't it?
I simply ask...
Great level of debate here.
Holidays to Iraq still selling
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2733055/Holiday-firm-continue-offer-trips-IRAQ-despite-increasing-threat-posed-Islamic-State-militants.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
My aunt works out there in Erbil, she had come home but just went back.... Madness IMO
* actually my mums sisters husbands second wife after my real aunt died... My uncle was an early polish immigrant coming here in the early 60s
Next they will do another Star Wars movie, or another Star Trek, or Indiana Jones, or Spiderman, or Batman, Die Hard, Rocky, Rambo, ect ect .
They will do sequels for every 80's and 90's movie, they might even make Titanic II. For God's sake why don't they just make them into a TV series, they can fill in an entire season just with James Bond movies already.
I’m more of the opinion that you’ve got a better chance of coming to an objective view on the probabilities by being removed from anecdotal “on the ground” evidence.
This accords with my personal experience - I've done well in the past on US, Irish and Scottish elections, far away from any 'on the ground' evidence.
Of course there can be exceptions, but these are more likely to be in small-scale elections such as Bradford West.
I cant say I've been convinced that anyone credible is privy to good 'on the ground' evidence that should make a punter think the Scottish Independence polls are wrong (which is not to say that the polls arent wrong). And I've seen loads of dross written by people who clearly havent a clue.
There does seem to be a trend of movies into TV series now though - apparently they're looking at doing a Minority Report TV series of all things - which feels like it is more than used to be the case, not that it is entirely new (Terminator, Buffy, Tremors, Stargate etc). I think it's a good idea - you can get much more complex stories and characters out of a series than you can a 2 hour movie.
Also, I believe there has already been a Titanic 2, even if it was not big budget Hollywood.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1640571/
The british/NI athletics team at the European championships finished top of the medal table with a record 12 golds
The English team at the commonwealth games finish top of the medal table with a record haul of 174 medals of which 58 gold and Scotland finish with a record haul of 53 medals,19 gold.
The GB Swimming team at the European championships finish top of the medal table with 27 medals,11 gold.
The GB team at the IPC Athletics European Championships finish third in medal table with 16 golds
The Youth Olympics,the GB team have won 21 medals,exceeding their total of 9,seven golds in that total.
Not forgetting our English men/women cricket teams,that have come back well to win after poor starts,the English women footy team that as just Qualified fot the Womens world cup
And expect big things from the GB rowing team at the world championships which as just started.
;-)
I agree with your second paragraph. The polls might be wrong, but I'm not betting on it.
Hollywood is really running out of ideas.
Next they will do another Star Wars movie, or another Star Trek, or Indiana Jones, or Spiderman, or Batman, Die Hard, Rocky, Rambo, ect ect .
They will do sequels for every 80's and 90's movie, they might even make Titanic II. For God's sake why don't they just make them into a TV series, they can fill in an entire season just with James Bond movies already.
Hollwood has always remade ideas, or reused them. It might seem particularly bad right now, but it's only a matter of degree, a lot of what people think of as great original movies were not the first to tackle the same idea. If it is a matter of a franchise, I don't even have a problem with doing yet more Star Trek/Wars and the like - they are familiar settings but still new stories and ideas even if they borrow elements and plot points from earlier ones.
If an idea has lain dormant for 20 odd years, it seems a great idea to revisit in my view - with bigger budgets and better technology, perhaps they can make ideas work which didn't previously, or they can see if they can improve on something that was already great. If they mess it up, we no longer need to fear that the old stuff might be lost forever one day or forgotten, people don't let the old classics die. Othertimes, what was great in the day might for technical quality reasons just not have as much impact today, and reintroducing the idea in a modern take is a good way to introduce it to a new audience (my fav example of this is action/fight scenes in TV and movies - sure there was some great stuff back in the day, but a lot of it was comically terrible, which can make scenes meant to be tense and emotional unintentionally funny now, to the detriment of the overall experience).
It only really annoys me when there's no reason to reuse an idea creatively, other than copyright games, a la Spiderman.
There does seem to be a trend of movies into TV series now though - apparently they're looking at doing a Minority Report TV series of all things - which feels like it is more than used to be the case, not that it is entirely new (Terminator, Buffy, Tremors, Stargate etc). I think it's a good idea - you can get much more complex stories and characters out of a series than you can a 2 hour movie. You need a lot of talent and/or charisma to get people to connect to a performance in only 2 hours or so, but some TV stars are far better actors than movie stars, putting in amazing performances with far more depth, but the acclaim rarely reaches such heights.
Also, I believe there has already been a Titanic 2, even if it was not big budget Hollywood.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1640571/
Night all.
Canvassing - agree with the points below - without comparative data you have very little idea what's going on. As Scott says, without comparative data the Indyref campaigners are working in the dark, unless they're now doing second canvasses.
What would the plot of Titanic III be (assuming they will go for a trilogy)?
What a mess.
No wonder all the good actors and directors are doing TV these days.
Name familiar? One of those Britain-hating radical Islamists who lives quite comfortably in the UK that we like to boo like a pantomime baddie?
You'll have something new to boo over soon. He's linked with a certain British members of IS in Syria.
The other night I said that I fully expect the US or a US ally to announce the death of senior/high profile IS types soon enough. Given the activity of US reconnaissance aircraft over Syria, they certainly are tracking someone. They missed a senior member in recent days by mere yards.
By the way, is Egypt going to invade Libya?
(I know the answer is probably no officially, but since all of Libya's neighbours including France and Italy are making noises one has to ask).