O/T, I just watched a clip from the "front line" in Iraq. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-28889646 In the latter part, no one seems particularly bothered about snipers, which is extremely odd.
In 2001 and 2005, there was swingback.....from the government TO the opposition.
In 2010, it's true the main opposition party lost ground in the final months, but that support went mainly to the Lib Dems; I think Labour's 2010 performance was below their average poll ratings in the whole parliament (admittedly they were a little higher than in the summer of 2009, but that was a lowpoint brought about by expenses).
There's really no evidence whatsoever of governments reliably regaining support just because an election's coming.
August 1996 ICM had Government 33, Opposition 45.
What's it called when both lose ground? Swingoff?
Before then, of course, pre-GE polls had fatal methodological flaws so should be pretty much disregarded.
ICM gave Labour the smallest leads of any company in 1996, but even then, the leads ranged between 12% and 25%. In December, one ICM poll gave Labour a 20% lead.
So you're having to cherry pick data to "prove" that "swingback" is a thing.
I'm cherry-picking data to "prove" that it's bollox.
Doesn't this in itself tell you something?
Pose the question another way. Why should governments have a "tendency" to recover?
What's the mechanism by which thousands or millions of voters change their political minds and become more favourable to the Government, no matter who is in power and what is happening in the country?
Simply that most normal voters pay very little attention to politics until near the election (it's a gradually increasing trend over time, explaining why "swingback" is a gradual process).
When they do pay attention, the government holds a lot of the cards - in terms of oxygen, agenda setting, ability to do stuff, perceived authority, etc.
That's why divided parties (undermining authority) and competence /incompetence are what can kill governments.
So "swingback" is a gradual process.Sounds like sex for the over 80s."Pullaway" could be occurring equally on the balance of probabilities.
Just spent a lovely afternoon in Salcombe, Devon. Among other things ate some very tasty crab. At the carpark a bloke was walking his dog around. It stopped and crapped. Lovely. When it had finished the owner carried on his merry way. As I am wont to do when I see this I remonstrated and invited him to clean up after his animal. He told me to F off, then got into his car. As he drove off I could not help but notice the UKIP sticker on his rear windscreen. It was a perfect moment. And, yes, I know it tells us nothing about anything. I'm sure some Tories don't clean up after their pooches either :-)
I suspect all political persuasions are guilty of the dog cr@p problem,round here they sometimes scoop it up in pink plastic bags and hang it on trees and fences. The local paper always has a letter from "Disgusted of ****" complaining of dog cr@p on the pavements,even takes priority of the trolls moaning about local councillors. Currently in Normandy,amazed at the phenominal achievement of D day.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-28889646
In the latter part, no one seems particularly bothered about snipers, which is extremely odd.
Even senior figures in a Labour Government have incontinent dogs.