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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote
In the wake of polling suggesting that Alex Salmond himself might be hurting the YES case it has been made known that the First Minister is saying publicly that if the price of winning independence is his job then he’s ready to step aside.
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Looking forward to the conclusion of the indyref, almost regardless of outcome.
We were rounded on at the time by the usual voices.
Given that the SNP are going to win the next Holyrood election in all likelihood - whatever happens, we've probably got all this to look forward to again within the next decade...
(2) The Scottish Government has clearly described this vote as a "once in a generation opportunity", even if they were inclined to backtrack from that it's not obvious they would they get Westminster approval.
(3) If the result is 'yes' then that's that, independence is irreversible.
2-That is how it has been described - I fear another referendum.
1-Yes, hard to say anything against this.
So we'll have a second referendum within 10 years IF the result this time is 'no' AND SNP and allies win an overall majority in 2016 or 2021 AND they backtrack on their "once in a generation" line AND Westminster lets them away with that.
I'm not overly concerned.
However anyone with a vote who really doesnt want to go through this again should vote 'yes' to be safe.
Can't fault your logic there Neil.
I hate referendums!!!
At least I think it was him!
Labour lead on:
NHS
2010: 3
2011: 11
2012: 18
2013: 13
2014: 11
Taxation
2010: -6
2011: 0
2012: 5
2013: 1
2014: -4
Unemployment:
2010: -2
2011: 4
2012: 11
2013: 6
2014: 0
Economy in General:
2010: -10
2011: -5
2012: 0
2013: -5
2014: -13
So while Labour have recovered from their 2010 nadir on the NHS, peaking in 2012, their lead has eroded since then, and on tax, unemployment and the economy they are back to where they were shortly after their 2010 defeat......
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x5052zki25/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Issues(1)-180814.pdf
Hmmm Is this what we can look forward to under a Labour govt?. Surely Ed will be sacking her - don't hold your breath on that.
Perhaps Salmond is being really cunning and plans to resign on the 24th, allowing Nicola Sturgeon to take his place in the debate in a late attempt to shore up the female vote...
“The English overwhelmingly oppose sharing the pound with an independent Scotland, according to research published today that concludes they want the Government to take a “hard line” with the Scots regardless of the referendum result.”
From the looks of it, the article is based on latest YouGov supplementary questions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11044574/English-reject-Alex-Salmonds-plan-to-share-the-pound.html
The survey of 3,695 English adults found little support for Scottish separation but only 23 per cent said they would support Alex Salmond’s plan for a formal currency union if there is a Yes vote next month
The YouGov base size was around half that and support for a currency union in EW was 21%
The YouGov also didn't have the supplementaries on Barnett and 'taking a hard line'.....
Since Salmond is currently having to make all the running in the last few weeks does this tell us the Nat's outward confidence is perhaps a little less well founded than they'd have us believe ?
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zhiq8zaeh1/Future-of-England-Survey-Results-20082014.pdf
It doesn't even ask 'currency union' - just ''be allowed to use the £''.
And while relations between SINDY & rUK look tough, people are pretty relaxed about DevoMax
Net agree:
If Scotland votes YES:
Use £: -30
No Passport Checks: +56
UK support Scot join EU/Nato: -10
UK standing in world diminshed: -7
Relations between Eng & Scot will improve: -43
If Scotland votes NO:
Scot Parl shld spend most tax raised in Scotland: +17
Level of public spend reduced to same as rest UK: +47
Scot MPs no vote English only laws: +50
Eng & Scot continue to drift apart: +16
Scot Parl decide own Welfare policies: +14
I see the Guardian continues its move to a smearing red top.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/salmond-i-would-quit-if-it-meant-a-yes-vote-1-3514731
English say Scots will pay a heavy price for referendum
ENGLAND will demand a high price from Scotland regardless of the referendum outcome, according to a new poll.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/english-say-scots-will-pay-a-heavy-price-for-referendum.25092377?utm_source=www.heraldscotland.com&utm_medium=RSS Feed&utm_campaign=Scottish News
Regardless of the outcome of the 18 September referendum, England will remain our closest neighbour and our most important trading partner. As such, it would also be wise to have it as our closest ally.
Such a hope is beginning to look vain, at least now in the thick of a referendum campaign where withering criticisms of “Westminster” can often be taken as thinly-veiled attacks on England and the English.
Can we really be surprised that our neighbours – watching the Scots disparage the rest of the UK – are in no mood to do those self-same Scots a kindness after 18 September?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/leaders-english-opinion-on-scottish-independence-1-3514693
As some of us have been pointing out for some time.......
To me it looks very much like what Salmond really wanted all along was either Devomax or the full EU/Euro monty (but was just unable to admit it publically). Dave called his bluff and now there's a referendum where the Scots are realising that byebye means byebye.
And, strangely, Salmond will probably now get what he really wants. A NO will lead to Devomax of some degree or other (Dave has already promised it for the Tory manifesto). But this will also reawaken English nationalism. We'll likely see over the next decade an equalisation of public spending per capita (where Scotland todays gets 11% more!) and EV4EL. A more federal UK. That's good for England (but less so for Scotland)! Thanks Alex. You big muppet.
There are consequences to everything - and the way the SNP has chosen to wage its independence campaign will have consequences.....whatever the economic merits of a currency Union, as the Scotsman leader points out:
Campaigners for the UK will point to an English reluctance to share the pound in a formal currency union with an independent Scotland.
This argument has often been presented as a refusal by the UK parties to play ball with an independent Scotland. In the light of this poll it can more accurately be seen as a realisation by the UK parties that they would have difficulty selling this pact to an English electorate.
The truth is that Yes is, or ought to be, a much wider campaign than the SNP. It is not for the SNP to say how all the multitudinous problems that an independent Scotland would encounter, it will be for the Scottish peoples' chosen leaders at the time. Had they adopted this approach many of the elephant traps that Salmond has fallen into might have been avoided.
Thankfully this implied contrition probably comes too late. The Yes campaign's response to the widely held view that Salmond is not fit to be Prime Minister of an independent country should always have been, well the people of Scotland will vote him out then. By accepting terms of engagement that focussed on Salmond and Sturgeon they have made the Yes tent smaller than it might have been.
And thank goodness for that. This is close enough already.
Salmond currency expert: UK may not share pound
THE expert behind Alex Salmond's currency plan has admitted the UK might not agree to share the pound in a formal monetary union with an independent Scotland.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-currency-expert-uk-may-not-share-pound.25097042
As I have said on here previously it is for Darling to make the case for BT at that debate but the temptation to trample over Salmond again will be hard to resist.
The obvious target this time around is the absurd position that the SNP and Salmond in particular have adopted on the NHS. Amongst a campaign built on stupid lies and unnecessary distortions that may well prove to be one of the most memorable.
Once again Salmond has damaged the credibility of the Yes campaign in a major way. Once again it was unnecessary. I expect it to play as prominent a role as currency did in the last one.
How is it that the Scots get free university and prescriptions paid for by UK-wide taxpayers and their MPs still get to vote on English education and health bills? This is just flat wrong.
SNP's NHS claims 'most scandalous deceit' of referendum
Labour MPs say biggest threat to Scotland's National Health Service comes from the billions of pounds of spending cuts that would have to follow independence.
In heated exchanges, they challenged Mr Salmond and Alex Neil, his Health Minister, to justify their claims that spending on the English health service is being cut through privatisation and this would be passed onto Scotland following a No vote.
But, when challenged, Mr Neil could not provide a single example of the Treasury having cut the English NHS budget, which is increasing by more than inflation.
In a further embarrassment for the Nationalists, it emerged that Mike Russell, the Education Minister, wrote a book advocating the privatisation of NHS facilities that “failed to maintain profitability
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11044568/SNPs-NHS-claims-most-scandalous-deceit-of-referendum.html
Stupid, just stupid.
That could be adapted to the number of MP's Scotland/Wales/NI get being "discounted" from the norm they should get on population by the percentage of public spending under the control of their own Parliament/Assembly. Might have to fine tune it for GDP per capita differentials but at least it goes some way to solving the " no taxation without representation " the West Lothian conundrum puts on England now.
As both Wakes and Scotland seen set for more powers the fact their MP's remain able to vote on solely English matters becomes ever more grotesque.
Vote NO or I'll resign, great tactic. What a way to destroy his reputation as the most astute politician in Scotland. Salmond is just a small fry.
If rUK ends up "winning" a negotiation on this (which, undoubtedly, it would do, as Scotland will have no choice but to accept its terms) I doubt there'd be any big issues politically south of the border in setting a CU up. After all, why not if all the safeguards are in place? The problems would be north of the border when the full implications of what it all means - Westminster control of fiscal policy, and no real practical economic independence at all - sink in.
Sells up and moves to Scotland to vote Yes.
Currency Union (E&W)
Support: 21
Oppose: 60
Excluding the 'Don't Knows' that's 74:26 against.....VERY brave.....
SNP and Labour Scots politicians ask: "The Loch Seaforth, which is the most recent CalMac vessel, has been partially built in Germany and partially built in Poland.
"The question I think for the Scottish government is how those governments and those economies sustain commercial shipbuilding in a way that, over the past five years in particular, it seems to have slipped away in Scotland."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-28825686
The answer is quite simple, if they had focused on practical mattes like the economy instead of spending so much time on independence theory, then they would be aware of efficiency and costs offered by the global competitors.
I think that's naive. Look at the comment threads on any Sindy article. There's a very significant Scots vs English undercurrent to them. Quite nasty - from both sides. This whole Sindy thing has exposed the unfairness that the English get out of the current arrangements.
And since all the parties have unequivocally rejected CU it is ridiculous to deny 'there'd be any big issues'! Like hell. CU is just not do-able.
To answer last night's questions, the remaining 6% is evenly split between Green and SNP/PC.
It is quite unbelievable how mass stupidity can gravitate to a single blog.
Meanwhile in Scotland university is free to students and paid for by........me. Other EU citizens can benefit too. But not my English daughters. WTF?
http://radicalindependence.org/2014/08/19/radical-independence-campaign-18k-canvass-sample-released/
Answer give in the Telegraph this year.
" Currently, Scottish students can study in their own country free of charge.
Undergraduates from the European mainland studying in Scotland are also entitled to free tuition because of EU anti-discrimination laws.
However, this protection does not apply within the same EU member state, allowing Scottish universities to charge youngsters from the rest of the UK £9,000 a year – up to £36,000 for a degree. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/10620373/English-students-could-get-free-tuition-at-Scottish-universities.html
Mr. Observer, I must disagree. If Yes wins and then the UK parties suddenly decide a currency union would be super I cannot see anything but a very combative and angry situation with UK (ex-Scotland, of course) voters.
Edited extra bit: on tuition fees, the SNP desire to continue charging the English them (but not citizens from other EU countries) did not do much to dispel the notion that at least part of the SNP/Yes campaign is not only pro-independence but actively anti-English.
The YES campaign is almost totally about the SNP. A handful of loony leftie public funding fuelled nutters and wee Patrick Harvie the irrelevant Green man are no more than a side show. This is the SNP's show.
Eck cannot say he will wind up the SNP. He is not Nigel Farage who speaks and acts as though UKIP is his personal property. The last thing the SNP needs right now is for a civil war to break out over Salmond's remarks.
I am attending a debate today in Inverness between Alistair Carmichael for NO and John Swinney for YES in front of an audience of business leaders. I would hope the quality of debate will be higher. I am not holding my breath on that one.
Incidentally was last night's 36% the highest Tory score with YouGov since George Osborne's disastrous 2012 budget?
If there is a CU the big issues will be north of the border when the implications of what it means in practice dawn on Scottish voters who have been sold dreams of lower taxes, oil funds and higher public spending. The Westminster parties have ruled out a CU on the basis that the SNP can't possibly agree to the terms that would have to be agreed. But they make the mistake of believing the SNP is worried about being held to any of the promises it has made. As Salmond says, he would get rid of the SNP tomorrow if it meant independence. That is the goal, nothing else. A Yes on 18th September delivers that, so it's a matter of saying what is necessary. On 19th September everything can change and it will matter not one jot.
Furthermore the whole concept of fees is a ticking timebomb which when it goes off will screw the taxpayers all over again. Willetts is an idiot who is leaving a mess behind him.
At the debate, can you ask Swinney about the closure of Ferguson's shipyard on the Clyde and why should government money be used to save it when it is so uncompetitive globally?
..and we have no intra-UK anti-discrimination laws?
It is NOT on. Really. It's an outrage.
Sindy has exposed a bunch of inequities across the 4 countries of the UK. Let's have full devolution for each of England, Scotland, Wales and NI. With a baseload of equal public spending per capita funded by Westminster and anything else they want to splash on raised per country. I'm paying for my daughters to be discriminated against in their own fcuking country!
Which poll are you quoting? And is it "honesty"?
I suggest a u-turn on currency union would prove catastrophic for parties that committed it. The attack "English/British taxpayers protecting Scottish banks" is clear, easy to understand and true. The follow-up "After Scottish Chancellors and banks cost us a trillion pounds" likewise. And then there's the final line about Scotland not taking its fair share of the debt and getting off 'scot-free', if there's a Yes, no currency union and Scotland's representatives attempt/succeed to get out of carrying any debt.
Quite right, Mr. Brooke.
Same sort of short term thinking that he used in IRAQ 2.
In Wales there are no prescription charges and university students get £3k+ per annum towards their costs.
"Welsh universities and colleges can charge up to £9,000 a year in tuition fees for a full-time degree course. But there’s a bit of brighter information if you’re from Wales, because the Welsh Assembly has pledged that – wherever in the UK you choose to study – you won’t have to pay more than £3,685 a year.
The remainder of the fee will be paid via a tuition fee grant – so in the case of a £9,000 fee, you’ll pay £3,685 a year and the government will cover the remaining £5,315."
More examples of the results of devolution and even more will crop up when Scotland and Wales have their own limited tax raising powers.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/19/lord-rennard-lib-dems-allegations-disciplinary-proceedings-dropped
That said, it does look blatantly anti-English that the SNP want independence and to continue discriminating against British students, alone of the students of the EU.
Mr. Observer, we have a watertight currency union with Scotland now. British taxpayers providing a lender of last resort to a foreign nation is not wise.
I cannot for the life of me understand why tuition fees should be free and paid for by taxes - where else in the world is that the norm?
- Salmond has already said it's a stop gap nmaking his currency fudge even worse
- the EU perspective is a barrier as IScots should be heading to CU with the Euro not the £
those two problems alone mean the £ is ripe for currency speculators who want to test how strong the link is. And if the £Scot gets attacked so does £Sterling. The whole edifice will crack because at its centre there's no political union.
And since most of the people testing the limits will be sitting in London how does that help cross-border relations ?
http://studyindenmark.dk/study-options/tuition-fees-and-scholarships
It's not just about trade, it's about how interconnected we are generally. The rUK would prefer a fiscally stable Scotland. What better way to get it than dictating Scotland's fiscal policy? There are two possible scenarios: a CU on the rUK's terms; or, no CU. The first is the better option. I may be wrong, but at this stage I don't think English people are giving the divorce negotiations much thought. Instinctively, they may be opposed to a CU because they see it as "giving in", but when they see the reality of what it means they may well be less hostile.
Can't quite see Labour saying "in recognition of the fact that 70% (? no idea what the real figure would be) of public spending will be under Scottish control under new Devo Max, Scotland's Westminster representation will be reduced from 2020 from 59 to 18". Turkeys and Xmas and all that.
That said I can't see the Tories introducing multi member top up style constituencies a la Welsh assembly elections either.