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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyR

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

Given the spate of polls over the weekend all showing that YES was edging up I was half-expecting a rally in the YES price on Betfair. It did move a touch but it is now back in the 6.8-7 range which in percentage terms converts to a 14-15% implied probability.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Follow the money.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    I thought Shadsy's piece on this topic yesterday was bang on the money.

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/18/latest-news-from-the-indyref-betting-markets/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Let's hope No wins.

    It'll be a rather tense and exciting night of results, I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Let's hope No wins.

    It'll be a rather tense and exciting night of results, I think.

    As I understand it, even though they are counting most of the votes overnight they won't announce any results until they are all in.

    So we might not get the result until Friday lunchtime or later if the weather is bad.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, that's an absolute crock of shit.

    Still, I imagine there'll be leaks. And if there's no word then I suppose I'll get some sleep that night. But it's still rubbish.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "So we might not get the result until Friday lunchtime or later if the weather is bad."

    Crikey, Mr G is going on holiday that Friday. I wonder what time his flight takes off. He may be condemned to zoom off into the sunshine not knowing the result.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    On 19th September I will be travelling with my daughter to an open day at Durham University. If the result goes the wrong way will we come back or apply for asylum? Could be a tough call.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I thought Shadsy's piece on this topic yesterday was bang on the money.

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/18/latest-news-from-the-indyref-betting-markets/

    A comment below that article suggests that because all the big money betting, mainly in London, is for No the odds are skewed in the No camp favour. He suggests people of the three celtic nations are betting Yes but are financially out muscled. (desperation from a Yes supporter methinks!).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Well I for one will be awake all night as the votes are being counted - mainly because I can't sleep on planes and I'll be on an overnight flight!

    A bit rubbish mind if results are not given for each local authority area as local counts are complete. Will we have to wait for Tower Hamlets again?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    RobC said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I thought Shadsy's piece on this topic yesterday was bang on the money.

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/18/latest-news-from-the-indyref-betting-markets/

    A comment below that article suggests that because all the big money betting, mainly in London, is for No the odds are skewed in the No camp favour. He suggests people of the three celtic nations are betting Yes but are financially out muscled. (desperation from a Yes supporter methinks!).
    It's Romney and Ron Paul supporters all over again
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Rentool, one hopes the integrity of the vote is a shade more robust in the referendum.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Was the Mr 400,000 quid NO punter not a Scot?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    DavidL said:

    On 19th September I will be travelling with my daughter to an open day at Durham University. If the result goes the wrong way will we come back or apply for asylum? Could be a tough call.

    The Home Office will probably take longer to process your application for asylum than the entire separation process.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    DavidL said:

    On 19th September I will be travelling with my daughter to an open day at Durham University. If the result goes the wrong way will we come back or apply for asylum? Could be a tough call.

    The Home Office will probably take longer to process your application for asylum than the entire separation process.

    That's kinda what I thought. Better get in there early before the queue gets out of control.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Patrick said:

    Was the Mr 400,000 quid NO punter not a Scot?

    It was placed in Surrey and the chap didn't have a Scottish accent

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/punter-places-largest-political-bet-ever-with-400k-wager-on-scotland-voting-no-9521636.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    As the old adage goes, do you want it quick or do you want it good?


    The result of 2014's independence referendum is unlikely to be declared in the early hours of the morning, according to a report.

    While ballots in the historic vote will be counted overnight, a paper from Chief Counting Officer (designate) Mary Pitcaithly said this does not necessarily mean the result will be announced overnight.

    "Getting the result right is more important than getting it quickly," it says.

    http://m.stv.tv/news/politics/247065-independence-referendum-result-unlikely-to-be-declared-overnight/
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    Was the Mr 400,000 quid NO punter not a Scot?

    It was placed in Surrey and the chap didn't have a Scottish accent
    Thanks for clarifying
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    ...was it JohnO ????
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    On 19th September I will be travelling with my daughter to an open day at Durham University. If the result goes the wrong way will we come back or apply for asylum? Could be a tough call.

    I've a spare room in Exeter if you really need it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Thinking about it, if you put all of the Yes and No votes into two big piles, you could literally weigh the vote to get the result.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SandyRentool said:

    Thinking about it, if you put all of the Yes and No votes into two big piles, you could literally weigh the vote to get the result.

    Or you could tape the ballot papers together into one huge paper chain and measure the result by sending them out to do laps of Holyrood Park.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    OblitusSumMe said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Thinking about it, if you put all of the Yes and No votes into two big piles, you could literally weigh the vote to get the result.

    Or you could tape the ballot papers together into one huge paper chain and measure the result by sending them out to do laps of Holyrood Park.
    That might take a bit longer than actually counting the ballots!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2014
    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    JohnO has a tendency to overindulge and end up in quite unexpected parts of the country. - the last such adventure being Bournemouth...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    He does.

    After a PB meet, John, after a few drinks got on the train to get back to Elmbridge, he somehow ended up in Bournemouth.

    It was the fault of myself and Neil. We made him stay longer at Dirty Dicks than he intended.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    OblitusSumMe said:

    DavidL said:

    On 19th September I will be travelling with my daughter to an open day at Durham University. If the result goes the wrong way will we come back or apply for asylum? Could be a tough call.

    I've a spare room in Exeter if you really need it.
    That's very kind.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    edited August 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    He does.

    After a PB meet, John, after a few drinks got on the train to get back to Elmbridge, he somehow ended up in Bournemouth.

    It was the fault of myself and Neil. We made him stay longer at Dirty Dicks than he intended.
    Strictly speaking Hersham, as there is no station called Elmbridge :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    He does.

    After a PB meet, John, after a few drinks got on the train to get back to Elmbridge, he somehow ended up in Bournemouth.

    It was the fault of myself and Neil. We made him stay longer at Dirty Dicks than he intended.
    And like a true Tory, he was keen to find someone else to blame for him falling asleep on the train. Preferably a leftie or a minority or both.

    ;-)
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    He does.

    After a PB meet, John, after a few drinks got on the train to get back to Elmbridge, he somehow ended up in Bournemouth.

    It was the fault of myself and Neil. We made him stay longer at Dirty Dicks than he intended.
    LOL! At least I'm not going senile. ;-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Be careful what you wish for!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Interesting to see that Shadsy agrees with my SHAVE:

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/just-three-seats-set-to-change-hands-in-the-north-east/

    I would go with Hartlepool having the highest Kipper share in the region.

    However, there's no E in Blyth, Mr S!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Frankly yes or no does not seem the most complicated question to count the answer to. It is not as if we have the sort of complicated voting systems the same people cope with in local government elections.

    I still think that turnout might be over 80%, especially if the polls suggest the result is close so there will be a fair few to count but really.

    I have a vision of the whole of Scotland waiting for some delayed polling boxes coming off one of the western Isles before they will tell us the result. It is ridiculous that the results are not being announced by local authority area as the local officer certifies them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Well quite, Mr. L.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    A conclusion I came to months ago at which point I became a lot more relaxed about the Labour polling lead. I hope it remains until 19th September to be honest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    He does.

    After a PB meet, John, after a few drinks got on the train to get back to Elmbridge, he somehow ended up in Bournemouth.

    It was the fault of myself and Neil. We made him stay longer at Dirty Dicks than he intended.
    And like a true Tory, he was keen to find someone else to blame for him falling asleep on the train. Preferably a leftie or a minority or both.

    ;-)
    A minority and a gay leftie immigrant

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited August 2014
    This just gets more bizarre.

    Eck's advisors say best option for Scotland is a formal currency union with the rest of the UK. They appear to have missed they already have one and leaving will break it.



    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-currency-union-best-route-1-3513760
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, largely fictional?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    on a different note, for those of you who need their blood pressure raising have a gander at theis:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100014123/government-it-projects-fail-because-of-politicians-not-programmers/

    The title says it all but does anyone know what has happened to the e-borders project outside this failed computer system. Has it just been dumped? If so is there any political fall-out that might be due to arrive?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Ok I might join.

    By the time Ed translates his ideas into realspeak his term will be up anyway, so no harm done.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Alanbrooke said:

    This just gets more bizarre.

    Eck's advisors say best option for Scotland is a formal currency union with the rest of the UK. They appear to have missed they already have one and leaving will break it.



    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-currency-union-best-route-1-3513760

    Quite. The logical conclusion of their advice is to vote no.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    A conclusion I came to months ago at which point I became a lot more relaxed about the Labour polling lead. I hope it remains until 19th September to be honest.
    The last ICM was Tories taking one for the Union

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
    Or Turkey in the latest Diplomacy game. Have you submitted your build order yet, Mr. Eagles?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, you can't make a strategic observation based on a battlefield situation, particularly when the battle and related matters were determined elsewhere.

    Endor, however, is an entirely valid criticism. Why source the shield externally? And, if it must be done, why do so on a world inhabited by annoying little [MODERATED].
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
    Your line is Vote UKIP get Ed!

    My message is Vote NO get Ed!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
    Your line is Vote UKIP get Ed!

    My message is Vote NO get Ed!
    How about vote Ed get No Ukip ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Alanbrooke said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
    Your line is Vote UKIP get Ed!

    My message is Vote NO get Ed!
    How about vote Ed get No Ukip ?
    You Kip if you want to! The laddie's NOT for kipping!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
    Or Turkey in the latest Diplomacy game. Have you submitted your build order yet, Mr. Eagles?
    This evening
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Follow the money.

    A NO vote will make it more likely that Super Ed will become our next Prime Minister!
    A YES vote will make this less likely :)
    If the price of keeping the Union together is Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, then it is a price worth paying.
    Desist Mr Eagles or you'll set Richard off again.
    Unionists4Ed will be a secret society like the Illuminati
    Is that like Kippers4Ed?

    :)
    No kippers4Ed are useful idiots.

    I know what I'm doing. They are blundering around with all the tactical and strategic brilliance of Hannibal at Zama or Emperor Palpatine at the Forest Moon of Endor
    Your line is Vote UKIP get Ed!

    My message is Vote NO get Ed!
    in the Leadership election I voted Ed to get Ed!

    In the GE I'll vote Labour to get Ed. And if fellow PBers wish to join me in that endeavour, you are more than welcome to do so!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you can't make a strategic observation based on a battlefield situation, particularly when the battle and related matters were determined elsewhere.

    Endor, however, is an entirely valid criticism. Why source the shield externally? And, if it must be done, why do so on a world inhabited by annoying little [MODERATED].

    Surely the Empire should have drenched the surrounding 50 square miles of the shield generator with Agent Orange and installed a few cameras. Then hit those furry toss-pots with a few tactical nukes.

    Guess that's what happens when you force-choke any administrator that fails you - all the talent leaves to work for the Trade Federation or to start their own business.

    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    FPT: just read again the summary of the McNulty report on UK railway efficiency... It concluded that the UK has unit costs that are 40% higher than continental comparisons... It made a number of recommendations to aim for a 30% efficiency improvement by 2018/19... these can be summarised as: stop the DfT interfering, decentralise, start managing programmes and assets properly, incentivise cost reductions and structure franchise arrangements more intelligently... Strangely, renationalisation and a return to BR were not suggested...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Anorak said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you can't make a strategic observation based on a battlefield situation, particularly when the battle and related matters were determined elsewhere.

    Endor, however, is an entirely valid criticism. Why source the shield externally? And, if it must be done, why do so on a world inhabited by annoying little [MODERATED].

    Surely the Empire should have drenched the surrounding 50 square miles of the shield generator with Agent Orange and installed a few cameras. Then hit those furry toss-pots with a few tactical nukes.

    Guess that's what happens when you force-choke any administrator that fails you - all the talent leaves to work for the Trade Federation or to start their own business.

    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]
    Oh, I'm afraid the Labour majority will still be operational when your friends arrive!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Anorak, the original films are rather good, I think.

    I wonder how the sequel to the originals will end up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you can't make a strategic observation based on a battlefield situation, particularly when the battle and related matters were determined elsewhere.

    Endor, however, is an entirely valid criticism. Why source the shield externally? And, if it must be done, why do so on a world inhabited by annoying little [MODERATED].

    That was a legion of the Empire's best men.

    Rumour has it the Legion was called the Hannibal legion
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Patrick said:

    ...was it JohnO ????

    No. If it was JohnO, the bet would have been placed in Bournemouth.

    ??? Thought he lived in Elmbridge Borough. My bad. Confused with another no doubt.
    He does.

    After a PB meet, John, after a few drinks got on the train to get back to Elmbridge, he somehow ended up in Bournemouth.

    It was the fault of myself and Neil. We made him stay longer at Dirty Dicks than he intended.
    And like a true Tory, he was keen to find someone else to blame for him falling asleep on the train. Preferably a leftie or a minority or both.

    ;-)
    A minority and a gay leftie immigrant

    After a couple of shandies, Neil is legless as well, so counts as a full house.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SandyRentool said:

    Interesting to see that Shadsy agrees with my SHAVE:

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/just-three-seats-set-to-change-hands-in-the-north-east/

    I would go with Hartlepool having the highest Kipper share in the region.

    However, there's no E in Blyth, Mr S!

    There is in Blythe Duff. Possible confusion?
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    i kind of think star wars was boring though even as a 7 year old.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    Guess that's what happens when you force-choke any administrator that fails you

    Imagine working in the Empire's HR department. The complaints...the compensation....the problems filling senior staffing vacancies....the health and safety issues...
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    maybe just because i've not seen return of the jedi yet. maybe its really reaally good
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    taffys said:

    Guess that's what happens when you force-choke any administrator that fails you

    Imagine working in the Empire's HR department. The complaints...the compensation....the problems filling senior staffing vacancies....

    this is the current n.korea dilemma of course
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Perhaps I'm being harsh on Emperor Palapatine.

    The destruction of the First Death Star was an inside job. Maybe the destruction of the second one was as well

    http://youtu.be/rEl_-cQVRYo
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    dugarbandier said:

    i kind of think star wars was boring though even as a 7 year old.

    Your lack of faith disturbs me!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    dugarbandier said:

    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
    You may have a point - when Samuel L. Jackson was offered a role in a Star Wars film, he reportedly said he’d have been happy with the part of a Storm-Trooper.

    He got the part of Jedi Master and said: "Cool, in that case I want a purple Light-Sabre… "
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I thought Shadsy's piece on this topic yesterday was bang on the money.

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/18/latest-news-from-the-indyref-betting-markets/

    The prices on 50-55% and over 55% voting yes are an insult to any punters intelligence

    C'mon @shadsy play the game!
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    dugarbandier said:

    maybe just because i've not seen return of the jedi yet. maybe its really reaally good

    Empire Strikes Back is the best of the 3 (there have only been 3 films yeah? The trillogy starts at episode 4 A New Hope, yeah? Jar Jar who???)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Taffys, it's been without an update for a couple of years, but this blog (mingling Lego, Star Wars, and office humour) is rather good:
    http://workingatthedeathstar.blogspot.co.uk/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    SimonStClare said:

    dugarbandier said:

    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
    You may have a point - when Samuel L. Jackson was offered a role in a Star Wars film, he reportedly said he’d have been happy with the part of a Storm-Trooper.

    He got the part of Jedi Master and said: "Cool, in that case I want a purple Light-Sabre… "
    Which was engraved BMF.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Afternoon.

    Financial Times ‏@FinancialTimes 3m
    Rockets from Gaza end ceasefire http://on.ft.com/1oNz3yf

    Round 3
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dugarbandier said:

    i kind of think star wars was boring though even as a 7 year old.

    Your lack of faith disturbs me!
    i think the force was not strong with me
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    SimonStClare said:

    dugarbandier said:

    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
    You may have a point - when Samuel L. Jackson was offered a role in a Star Wars film, he reportedly said he’d have been happy with the part of a Storm-Trooper.

    He got the part of Jedi Master and said: "Cool, in that case I want a purple Light-Sabre… "
    my sons insist there is some significance to t'colour o't sabre but they're mostly influenced by the lego versions
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    dugarbandier said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dugarbandier said:

    i kind of think star wars was boring though even as a 7 year old.

    Your lack of faith disturbs me!
    i think the force was not strong with me
    No, dugarbandier. I am your father!
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    dugarbandier said:

    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
    You may have a point - when Samuel L. Jackson was offered a role in a Star Wars film, he reportedly said he’d have been happy with the part of a Storm-Trooper.

    He got the part of Jedi Master and said: "Cool, in that case I want a purple Light-Sabre… "
    Which was engraved BMF.
    BMF ? - don't leave me in suspense...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    More dehydrated illegals litter the countryside

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-28857123

    So much for Cammo's war on illegal immigration.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    dugarbandier said:

    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
    You may have a point - when Samuel L. Jackson was offered a role in a Star Wars film, he reportedly said he’d have been happy with the part of a Storm-Trooper.

    He got the part of Jedi Master and said: "Cool, in that case I want a purple Light-Sabre… "
    Which was engraved BMF.
    BMF ? - don't leave me in suspense...
    If you needed more definitive proof that Samuel L. Jackson is a badass, ask and you shall receive: In a new interview on The UK's BBC One talk show The Graham Norton Show, Jackson revealed that he actually has the purple lightsaber he brandished for his role as Mace Windu in the Star Wars prequels, and it has the title "bad motherf**ker" engraved on the side.

    http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2013/07/samuel-l-jackson-has-the-best-thing-engraved-on-his-star-wars-purple-lightsaber
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    taffys said:

    Guess that's what happens when you force-choke any administrator that fails you

    Imagine working in the Empire's HR department. The complaints...the compensation....the problems filling senior staffing vacancies....the health and safety issues...

    Or the catering department on the Death Star:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv5iEK-IEzw
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    dugarbandier said:

    Anorak said:



    [let's face it, George Lucas has succeeded despite his complete inability to write a script or structure a story]

    succeeded because light sabres and that cool noise they make
    You may have a point - when Samuel L. Jackson was offered a role in a Star Wars film, he reportedly said he’d have been happy with the part of a Storm-Trooper.

    He got the part of Jedi Master and said: "Cool, in that case I want a purple Light-Sabre… "
    Which was engraved BMF.
    BMF ? - don't leave me in suspense...
    Bad Mother Frakker*!

    (*Battlestar Galactica version!)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    Any chance you could open a market on which pollster will be the most accurate at the Indyref?

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dugarbandier said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dugarbandier said:

    i kind of think star wars was boring though even as a 7 year old.

    Your lack of faith disturbs me!
    i think the force was not strong with me
    No, dugarbandier. I am your father!
    exit, persued by an ewok
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. StClare, I think that's a reference to Samuel L. Jackson's wallet in Pulp Fiction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    If YES wins it'll be by a hair's breadth. Some truly delusional Nats out there !
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Jackson revealed that he actually has the purple lightsaber he brandished for his role as Mace Windu in the Star Wars prequels,

    Interesting. The question 'would you like to come up and see my purple light sabre' must get some interesting reactions from Mr Jackson's house guests...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    Any chance you could open a market on which pollster will be the most accurate at the Indyref?

    Me?!

    No, I am not really interested

    But to bet YES at 5/1 and the only combinations of YES happening at 10/3 is pretty shoddy surely you must see that?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2014
    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    But you are betting 3/1 about something you are offering 5/1 on the same page!!!

    I am twitching! Its so wrong!


    **Apols 10/3 not 3/1
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    taffys said:

    Jackson revealed that he actually has the purple lightsaber he brandished for his role as Mace Windu in the Star Wars prequels,

    Interesting. The question 'would you like to come up and see my purple light sabre' must get some interesting reactions from Mr Jackson's house guests...

    the foremost being "don't hold it so tightly"
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    Those are people betting with their hearts and not their heads. Like people who bet on England winning the World Cup.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:

    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    But you are betting 3/1 about something you are offering 5/1 on the same page!!!


    I am twitching! Its so wrong!
    Someone has to pay Shadsy's Xmas bonus, and, as long as it's not you or me, who's complaining?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    Any chance you could open a market on which pollster will be the most accurate at the Indyref?

    Me?!

    No, I am not really interested

    But to bet YES at 5/1 and the only combinations of YES happening at 10/3 is pretty shoddy surely you must see that?
    I was asking Mr Shadsy
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @TSE – awesome – Light-Sabers and Sandra Bullock in the same clip – hastily retreats to apply cold flannel to forehead.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    shadsy said:

    @isam
    Unbelievably, over 50% of the money we have taken on the YES vote share market has been on over 55%, despite the odds. Got a six figure liability on that already. I agree they are terrible bets - I think I'd want at least 25/1 on over 55%.

    But you are betting 3/1 about something you are offering 5/1 on the same page!!!


    I am twitching! Its so wrong!
    Someone has to pay Shadsy's Xmas bonus, and, as long as it's not you or me, who's complaining?
    Apologies for my intellectual honesty, let party politics resume
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    MikeK said:

    More dehydrated illegals litter the countryside

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-28857123

    So much for Cammo's war on illegal immigration.

    They aren't "illegal" immigrants.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MikeK said:

    More dehydrated illegals litter the countryside

    I see the compassionate wing of UKIP is out in force today!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    SimonStClare said:

    @TSE – awesome – Light-Sabers and Sandra Bullock in the same clip – hastily retreats to apply cold flannel to forehead.

    I can't find the clip, but he was on the Graham Norton show recently, and he was talking about how he manages to intimidate any guy who comes to see his daughter.

    But this clip is also awesome featuring Mr Jackson

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pn43TwsPrM
This discussion has been closed.