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SystemSystem Posts: 12,137
edited May 2013 in General

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    Excellent
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    I was called a swivel eyed loon over at the times today.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Cameron really could be on his way out, couldn't he?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Evening all. Quiet night with no political news, I see, but a great Marf.

    I have a big birthday coming up later this year. Where do I book the band?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,288
    Is that Mike (lead-guitar and vocals)?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    If Mr Evans is charged, does that trigger a by-election, or would he have to be convicted?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2327552/Police-search-Commons-office-Deputy-Speaker-Nigel-Evans-rape-claims.html
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Very nice marf.

    The survation poll may or may not be an outlier but Cammie pleading with his activists not to desert him and pleading with labour to save the gay marriage bill are symptomatic of omnishambles the sequel.
  • Can we download or is the song only available on vinyl?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    Who would win a fight?

    A swivel eyed loon or an aggressive homosexual?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374

    Evening all. Quiet night with no political news, I see, but a great Marf.

    I have a big birthday coming up later this year. Where do I book the band?

    Richard, if you need advice on decent bands/artists, I'm your man.

    My musical tastes are unparalleled on PB
  • tim said:

    @joeyjonessky: Tactically, labour have played a bit of a blinder today. Not often I say that.

    Excellent work from Ed and Yvette.

    Agreed.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Can we download or is the song only available on vinyl?

    Wax cylinder, another cousin of Seth. ;)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013

    Is that Mike (lead-guitar and vocals)?

    John O is the lead, with David H on drums and Avery LP (or maybe one of his cousins) doing the backing riff on the bass.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    tim said:

    @joeyjonessky: Tactically, labour have played a bit of a blinder today. Not often I say that.

    Excellent work from Ed and Yvette.

    Agreed.

    Agreed too. Politically, it's worked well for Labour.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Kudos to Barack Obama, despite the inevitable domestic difficulties in standing up for Muslims, he's publicly demanded the Burmese authorities stop the ethnic violence against them:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22565267
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    My musical tastes are unparalleled on PB

    I'm sure they are, but they might not be closely aligned with mine!
  • Mick_Pork said:

    Can we download or is the song only available on vinyl?

    Wax cylinder, another cousin of Seth. ;)
    Don't mock, Pork.

    I have a number of recordings lifted from wax cylinder, including the last surviving true castrato singing in the Vatican Choir.

    Be warned!
  • Can we download or is the song only available on vinyl?

    Here you go (the original)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQZLPV6xcHI

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    If Mr Evans is charged, does that trigger a by-election, or would he have to be convicted?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2327552/Police-search-Commons-office-Deputy-Speaker-Nigel-Evans-rape-claims.html

    Would the Tories rather have a definite by-election, or the possibility of ongoing coverage of a rape charge and a by-election?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    There's the list of votes for the first division of the day.....Ayes 150, Noes 340.
    I think it was the one allowing register officers refusing to marry some couples

    Labour MPs who voted AYE: Frank Field, David Anderson, Mary Glindon, Joe Benton, Jim Dobbin, David Crausby, Goerge Mudie, Virendra Sharma,
    LiBDems: Simon Hughes, Sarah Teather, Duncan Hames, Gordon Birtwistle, Paul Burstow, Tim Farron, John Pugh, Alan Beith
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Tim Loughton has a very sad face now. Is that his eyes swiveling? o_O
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,675
    Very nice cartoon, Marf!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cruddas voted in favour of Clause 8 (which was about clarifying religious protections)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2013
    Chris Huhne resigned from the cabinet when he was charged but remained an MP for a year until the case came up when he pleaded guilty. He could have gone on being an MP because his prison term was less than a year.

    So it's not the charging that triggers anything but getting a jail term of a year or more.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    Can we download or is the song only available on vinyl?

    Wax cylinder, another cousin of Seth. ;)
    Don't mock, Pork.

    I have a number of recordings lifted from wax cylinder, including the last surviving true castrato singing in the Vatican Choir.

    Be warned!
    I hope they are of slightly better quality than this earliest example or the response might be similar, another cousin of Seth ;)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKBWsy5A2bA
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Finally someone on Newsnight has asked for us all to think of the children. Which was obviously the last thing she was doing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    IOS, perhaps. It's not generally good for a PM to have to rely on opponents against his own side.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ratty's not a Loon then?
  • IOS said:

    Cameron really could be on his way out, couldn't he?

    Hopefully!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,288

    Is that Mike (lead-guitar and vocals)?

    John O is the lead, with David H on drums and Avery LP Or maybe one of his cousins) doing the backing riff on the bass.
    Ah yes, of course.

    I presume the picture was taking on JohnO's recent tour.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    I presume the picture was taking on JohnO's recent tour.

    No, the tour starts when the gig ends.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    I presume the picture was taking on JohnO's recent tour.

    I thought JohnO's crack electoral team had managed to suppress all evidence of said tour (which I accept no blame for whatsoever)?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    FormerToryOrange, would anyone miss him?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I quite like Australia's One Nation as a parallel for UKIP.

    http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/05/ukips-populism-could-be-a-greater-threat-to-the-left/

    I can't see it working without Mr Cameron being replaced though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,374
    Neil said:


    I presume the picture was taking on JohnO's recent tour.

    I thought JohnO's crack electoral team had managed to suppress all evidence of said tour (which I accept no blame for whatsoever)?
    Poor JohnO, I hope next time someone keeps an eye on him.

    I have visions of him waking up in Bruxelles or Bratislava after the next PB meet.
  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    edited May 2013
    Here you go, Pork.

    Alessandro Moreschi, the last surviving true castrato retained by the Vatican Choir, singing Gounod's Ave Maria set to Bach's Prelude in C Major, BWV 846.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slhhg8sI6Ds

    From memory this was recorded around the turn of 19th to 20th century directly to wax.

    Moreschi was in his late 50s.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    The SDP never made a serious effort to build up a base on the ground. They relied on too many chiefs and too few Indians. UKIP aren't making that mistake.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.

    Thats why they failed. You really can't see it, can you Richard. Shirley Williams, (one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies.) is still hated for what she did to the Grammar schools.
    This time, UKIP are NOTA, and thats why they will succeed where the SDP failed.
  • Sean_F said:

    The SDP never made a serious effort to build up a base on the ground. They relied on too many chiefs and too few Indians. UKIP aren't making that mistake.

    I just love the way Tories keep trying to give this impression that they have a divine right to rule. I think its great politics and the electorate will soon come round to their way of thinking and vote for a Tory landslide. Of course they will.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.

    The current ladbrokes odds on ukip polling 0-10% at GE2015 are 8/13. You can back that at 4/5 with me if you wish

    Sam (new acc as iPad won't accept password)
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Here you go, Pork.

    Alessandro Moreschi, the last surviving true castrato retained by the Vatican Choir, singing Gounod's Ave Maria set to Bach's Prelude in C Major, BWV 846.

    From memory this was recorded around the turn of 19th to 20th century directly to wax.

    Moreschi was in his late 50s when this was recorded.

    I'll not deny it has it's charm and presumably too much digital cleaning and processing would impact on that. Your reputation as a moderniser is safe, another cousin of Seth. ;)

  • Sean_F said:

    FormerToryOrange, would anyone miss him?

    Sure they would - Labour would be gutted to lose their fifth column
  • I quite like Australia's One Nation as a parallel for UKIP.

    http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/05/ukips-populism-could-be-a-greater-threat-to-the-left/

    I can't see it working without Mr Cameron being replaced though.

    I can't see it working with the Tories at all. I think they are just too divided and too damaged for too long.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    I just love the way Tories keep trying to give this impression that they have a divine right to rule. I think its great politics and the electorate will soon come round to their way of thinking and vote for a Tory landslide. Of course they will.

    I don't know which Tories you're talking about, but every Tory I know is aware that, inasmuch as the UKIP bubble hasn't subsided by 2015, it will help Labour damage the economy, reverse the progress on education and welfare, and cement ever-closer union in place under the most disadvantageous terms.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    isam said:


    The current ladbrokes odds on ukip polling 0-10% at GE2015 are 8/13. You can back that at 4/5 with me if you wish

    I'm waiting for better odds. The bubble has further to inflate.

    Meanwhile I'm counting my profits from backing (on SPIN) Labour Most Seats, which I repeatedly advised punters here to take in 2011.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Up with Swivel Eyed Loon rights!

    Loons must march for equal rights.

    Solidarity in the LGBTL community.

    How long before a cabinet minister comes out as Loon?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509
    It's a perfect storm for UKIP this week, and if they don't actually pass the Tories, they may slip back a bit, but if they do, it'll give another boost to the narrative. For betting, note the Survation poll also did a Euros question, with Lab/UKIP/Con on 30/29/20. In the circs that's quite a good Tory poll (and not that great a UKIP Euro-poll) compared with their 9% odds on coming first that Mike quoted the other day.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    FPT (in reply to SeanT): "How many people like you are there? The soft right, middle class, liberal Tories? 1 million?

    The Tories don't need you, they need the voters that UKIP are now hoovering up: the many millions of CDE rightwingers, the people who voted for Thatcher and Major, or the people who never vote at all."

    You're making all kinds of incorrect assumptions about me there.

    But note this: (1) In my constituency in 2010 Labour won by 42 votes. The Tories need the votes of me and people like me to win. Nothing they're doing now - despite Cameron's bravery in sticking to his gay marriage pledge - is calculated to make it more likely that I vote for them, despite my loathing of Labour.

    (2) Thatcher and Major reached out to voters beyond their core vote. That's what made them successful. All this stuff about alliances with UKIP and the rest is the same old fantasy that if only the Tories were properly right wing they would win and is as realistic as Labour in the 80's thinking that if only they were properly left-wing the British would flock to them. It's fantasy politics fuelled by political titans such as Nadine Dorries whose idea of helping her poor constituents who have to put things back on the shelf because they can't afford them is to decamp to Australia to earn silly money for making a t*t of herself.

    Why would retreating to a core vote of c. 25% help the Tories when Labour's core seems to be c. 35%?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Massive tornados of unusual ferocity have been hitting the middle west of the USA for the past week.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22604251

    I dont want to worry anyone but didn't the film "The Day After Tomorrow" have scenes of giant twisters presaging a new ice age? Just a thought before you go to bed.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    isam said:

    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.

    The current ladbrokes odds on ukip polling 0-10% at GE2015 are 8/13. You can back that at 4/5 with me if you wish

    Sam (new acc as iPad won't accept password)
    A few years back I had a problem logging in to https sites due to a corrupted item in my Keychain. If I recall correctly, you test this by creating a new user account, and try logging in with that. (Then theres a lot of faffing around removing one item from the keychain, try logging in etc)

  • I just love the way Tories keep trying to give this impression that they have a divine right to rule. I think its great politics and the electorate will soon come round to their way of thinking and vote for a Tory landslide. Of course they will.

    I don't know which Tories you're talking about, but every Tory I know is aware that, inasmuch as the UKIP bubble hasn't subsided by 2015, it will help Labour damage the economy, reverse the progress on education and welfare, and cement ever-closer union in place under the most disadvantageous terms.
    Richard, I think you're vastly underestimating how angry former Conservative voters are with this government (maybe you're willfully refusing to acknowledge it). I, for instance, beat the streets for the Conservative party in the run up to the 2010 election and zealously proselytised for them. Even then, I was quite suspicious of Cameron's allegiance to conservative politics, but having lived under a Labour government from the age of 7 I'd have been prepared to go to great lengths to be rid of it.

    Now, however, it has transpired that the current government is not really any better than the last. I acknowledge that Labour would be worse for the UK economy, but given the incompetence of the present government in implementing their stated policy (the Tories' stated economic policy is in fact perfectly acceptable), it probably wouldn't be significantly worse. Given that the Conservative government's policy is every bit as bad as Labour's on most other areas of policy, and not all that much better on economic policy, at least not the way they go about implementing it, why would I want to vote for a party that I now truly dislike in order to avoid another party which I dislike only marginally more? I have a lot of time for many Conservative backbenchers, but with Cameron in charge I simply cannot bring myself to vote Conservative, and certainly not to campaign for them.

    Replace Cameron with someone even half decent, and I'll probably be right back on board. Until then, I'm voting UKIP, regardless of whether that gives Labour a better chance of winning. Frankly, I don't care if Labour win the next election, it is what the Conservative party richly deserve for continuing (and accelerating) Labour's dismantling of the fabric of UK society, and for failing to get rid of Cameron.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2013
    The attitude of supporters of the big three is a reflection of how the Tories view UKIP... Senior Labour politicians have obviously been told not to dismiss them... They know full well there are old labour votes for ukip

    UKIP were polling 1 or 2% a year ago I believe.... Correct me if I am wrong...

    The have polled 18% with ICM, 20% at the weekend and 22% tonight and now the goalposts have been moved so far that Nick Palmer is flagging up that they haven't passed the Tories yet!

    In spread betting this would be continuing to short the market to average out without rebasing your original view

    Not shrewd

    The first cut is the cheapest

  • Cyclefree said:

    FPT (in reply to SeanT): "How many people like you are there? The soft right, middle class, liberal Tories? 1 million?

    The Tories don't need you, they need the voters that UKIP are now hoovering up: the many millions of CDE rightwingers, the people who voted for Thatcher and Major, or the people who never vote at all."

    You're making all kinds of incorrect assumptions about me there.

    But note this: (1) In my constituency in 2010 Labour won by 42 votes. The Tories need the votes of me and people like me to win. Nothing they're doing now - despite Cameron's bravery in sticking to his gay marriage pledge - is calculated to make it more likely that I vote for them, despite my loathing of Labour.

    (2) Thatcher and Major reached out to voters beyond their core vote. That's what made them successful. All this stuff about alliances with UKIP and the rest is the same old fantasy that if only the Tories were properly right wing they would win and is as realistic as Labour in the 80's thinking that if only they were properly left-wing the British would flock to them. It's fantasy politics fuelled by political titans such as Nadine Dorries whose idea of helping her poor constituents who have to put things back on the shelf because they can't afford them is to decamp to Australia to earn silly money for making a t*t of herself.

    Why would retreating to a core vote of c. 25% help the Tories when Labour's core seems to be c. 35%?

    Haha, behave! Labour's core vote is about 20%. They're struggling to make 35% in the midterm of a government which includes both the other major parties, and which is straining every nerve to make itself as unpopular as possible.

    There are far more people in this country who would vote Conservative if only they were more conservative, than people who would vote Conservative if they were even more indistinguishable than they already are from Labour and the Libdems. The Conservative party doesn't need people like you, it needs people like me.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Cyclefree said:



    Why would retreating to a core vote of c. 25% help the Tories when Labour's core seems to be c. 35%?

    At the 2010 election, Labour got 29% of the vote.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Quote of the day.
    I'd rather take advice from my valet than from the Conservative Party Conference
    Arthur Balfour.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    @FormerToryOrange: An entire post of three paragraphs saying nothing other than the fact that you dislike David Cameron (Labour's class-based poison having its slow effect, I imagine).

    Fine, that's your prerogative: it's your vote. But to vote is to choose, and the choice is the Conservatives under Cameron - who's actually an excellent PM, the best bar Maggie for half a century - or Labour. It's not a choice between Cameron and some fictional perfect leader whom you can't name and in any case whose policies simply could not be significantly different in any of the directions I expect you want, or at least not with any chance of winning in 2015. Want the economy sorted and spending cut? They are doing that, as fast as is practical given the starting position. Want a referendum on the EU? Great, vote Conservative, since there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of getting one any other way. Want education sorted? Great, Gove is on the case. Want to reform the welfare system so it rewards work and doesn't incentivise people to slide into benefit dependency? This is the first government in 50 years to grasp that nettle. Etc etc. (And that's without even mentioning the constraints of coalition, which Cameron's critics conveniently forget).
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    isam said:

    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.

    The current ladbrokes odds on ukip polling 0-10% at GE2015 are 8/13. You can back that at 4/5 with me if you wish

    Sam (new acc as iPad won't accept password)
    A few years back I had a problem logging in to https sites due to a corrupted item in my Keychain. If I recall correctly, you test this by creating a new user account, and try logging in with that. (Then theres a lot of faffing around removing one item from the keychain, try logging in etc)

    Sam, I sometimes get password trouble on my iPad. If you have an Apple account its very easy to change the password, and if you have an iMac its even easier as the two are connected by cloud.

  • It's a perfect storm for UKIP this week, and if they don't actually pass the Tories, they may slip back a bit, but if they do, it'll give another boost to the narrative. For betting, note the Survation poll also did a Euros question, with Lab/UKIP/Con on 30/29/20. In the circs that's quite a good Tory poll (and not that great a UKIP Euro-poll) compared with their 9% odds on coming first that Mike quoted the other day.

    Not a great poll? They are almost doubling their vote share from the last two Euro elections and not only that but the first Euro poll in 2009 had them on a paltry 7%. Furthermore, the narrative is likely to be about immigration and the whole tranche of vetoes that the UK will be giving up to be replaced by the Qualified Majority Voting that starts in 2014 which will confuse the hell out of tall those non political geeks who thought that the referendum lock stopped further transfers of power.

    Interestingly from that first poll in 2009 Labour were down 14% at the election and the Tories down 7%.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.

    The current ladbrokes odds on ukip polling 0-10% at GE2015 are 8/13. You can back that at 4/5 with me if you wish

    Sam (new acc as iPad won't accept password)
    A few years back I had a problem logging in to https sites due to a corrupted item in my Keychain. If I recall correctly, you test this by creating a new user account, and try logging in with that. (Then theres a lot of faffing around removing one item from the keychain, try logging in etc)

    Sam, I sometimes get password trouble on my iPad. If you have an Apple account its very easy to change the password, and if you have an iMac its even easier as the two are connected by cloud.

    Thanks

    I have more than one apple ID which may be nausing things...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    @FormerToryOrange: "The Conservative party doesn't need people like you, it needs people like me."

    Good luck with that one. It didn't win last time with your vote alone. If it can't get the votes of the likes of me next time, it's not going to win. Sorry.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:



    Why would retreating to a core vote of c. 25% help the Tories when Labour's core seems to be c. 35%?

    At the 2010 election, Labour got 29% of the vote.
    Fair enough. But 29% is still higher than 25% or 24% or wherever the Tories now are.

  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104

    Frankly, I don't care if Labour win the next election, it is what the Conservative party richly deserve for continuing (and accelerating) Labour's dismantling of the fabric of UK society

    Lol. And more importantly, ker-ching :-) The more like you the better!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    On the basis of the Survation poll, there's little reason to doubt UKIP will win the Euros (barring a black swan event).

    Cycle free , a party can't rely on its core vote to win, but it can't rely without it. Where is Cameron gaining votes to make up for those he is alienating?
  • I just love the way Tories keep trying to give this impression that they have a divine right to rule. I think its great politics and the electorate will soon come round to their way of thinking and vote for a Tory landslide. Of course they will.

    I don't know which Tories you're talking about, but every Tory I know is aware that, inasmuch as the UKIP bubble hasn't subsided by 2015, it will help Labour damage the economy, reverse the progress on education and welfare, and cement ever-closer union in place under the most disadvantageous terms.
    Well I'm sure we will find out then won't we because given the imbalance in the electoral system the Tories were never going to win in 2015 with Cameron at the helm anyway. How does that 'swivel-eyed nutter' Ben Brogan put it?

    Still, the fact that political reporting is prone to moments of exuberance does not excuse Mr Cameron. He suffers because he is not very good at politics. You can tell by the legacy issues he must contend with: he failed to win an election against one of Britain’s least popular prime ministers, then failed to secure his party’s agreement for Coalition; what patronage he has he uses, unwisely, to reward friends; he has followed, rather than led, on Europe; and, as we witnessed last night, he is in the final throes of an utterly avoidable confrontation with his own side over gay marriage.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/benedictbrogan/

    Even the loyalists are losing patience with him........
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509
    I do admire Richard N's fearless chutzpah. When Osborne was in mid-firestorm he declared him a "near-perfect" Chancellor. He now chooses *this* moment to describe Cameron as the second best PM for half a century...

    Isam (are you the same as sam and samonipad?) - I think I was the first poster to point out that UKIP might approach crossover back when they were on about 14%. In electoral terms I do think their rise is useful for Labour. In political terms (winning the long-term arguments) not. But either way it's fascinating to see a centuries-old political giant like the Conservatives on the brink of disaster. I still think they'll pull back, as we did in 1983, but there must be a real risk of meltdown at this point.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    In the interests of protecting PBers from wasting their money, may I gently point to Rod Crosby's post just before the end of the last thread. The only thing I'd add is that the Gang of Four comprised four former Cabinet ministers: one of the most distinguished Home Secretaries of the post-war years and a former Chancellor, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Minister of Transport, and one of the iconic female Cabinet ministers of the Seventies. What's more, they were explicitly trying to be a serious party aiming for the centre-left ground with a coherent policy platform, not just a list of saloon-bar gripes, and the appeal of the party was based on rather more substance than disputed third-hand newspaper reports of careless phrasing in a bar at the InterContinental.

    I take the general point, but what evidence is there that the voters are attracted by a serious policy platform rather than a list of saloon bar gripes?
    Socrates said:

    If Mr Evans is charged, does that trigger a by-election, or would he have to be convicted?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2327552/Police-search-Commons-office-Deputy-Speaker-Nigel-Evans-rape-claims.html

    Would the Tories rather have a definite by-election, or the possibility of ongoing coverage of a rape charge and a by-election?
    The second one, if the by-election would give voters the idea that UKIP could win seats.

    Meanwhile the rest of the parliamentary should be under strict instructions not to die.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Sean_F said:

    On the basis of the Survation poll, there's little reason to doubt UKIP will win the Euros (barring a black swan event).

    Cycle free , a party can't rely on its core vote to win, but it can't rely without it. Where is Cameron gaining votes to make up for those he is alienating?

    I've no idea. What his political strategy is seems a mystery to me.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    Where is Cameron gaining votes to make up for those he is alienating?

    It was supposed to be the 2010 LDs, but UKIP are beating the Conservatives there too.

    Table 19

    2010 LD voters

    Con 6.5%, Lab 29%, LD 41.6%, UKIP 16.5% (Green 5%)

    As I understand it, the Cameroons' whole strategy is designed to attract these voters.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Survation_May_Voting_Intentions_Poll_Tables_20th-May.pdf

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    But to vote is to choose, and the choice is the Conservatives under Cameron - who's actually an excellent PM, the best bar Maggie for half a century - or Labour.

    Ah yes, a vote for the kippers is a vote for labour.
    Just like a vote for the lib dems was a vote for labour in 2010.

    Remind us who you are in coalition with again?

    *chortle*

    Best improve the spin.
    You aren't going to beat back the kippers by pretending they are labour or being nice to them.
  • I do admire Richard N's fearless chutzpah. When Osborne was in mid-firestorm he declared him a "near-perfect" Chancellor. He now chooses *this* moment to describe Cameron as the second best PM for half a century...

    Well its not that much of a contest is it?

    Wilson
    Heath
    Callaghan
    Thatcher
    Major
    Blair
    Brown

    Even I, who is definitely not his fan, would probably put him third out of that lot. Clearly he is well behind Thatcher and must also be behind Blair because he has modelled himself on Blair and made many of the same mistakes and a whole lot of more that Blair would have never made.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I do admire Richard N's fearless chutzpah. When Osborne was in mid-firestorm he declared him a "near-perfect" Chancellor. He now chooses *this* moment to describe Cameron as the second best PM for half a century...

    Well its not that much of a contest is it?

    Wilson
    Heath
    Callaghan
    Thatcher
    Major
    Blair
    Brown

    Even I, who is definitely not his fan, would probably put him third out of that lot. Clearly he is well behind Thatcher and must also be behind Blair because he has modelled himself on Blair and made many of the same mistakes and a whole lot of more that Blair would have never made.
    YouGov put Mr Cameron at the bottom. Nil points.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4880665/margaret-thatcher-best-pm-ahead-of-churchill.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2013

    I do admire Richard N's fearless chutzpah. When Osborne was in mid-firestorm he declared him a "near-perfect" Chancellor. He now chooses *this* moment to describe Cameron as the second best PM for half a century...

    Isam (are you the same as sam and samonipad?) - I think I was the first poster to point out that UKIP might approach crossover back when they were on about 14%. In electoral terms I do think their rise is useful for Labour. In political terms (winning the long-term arguments) not. But either way it's fascinating to see a centuries-old political giant like the Conservatives on the brink of disaster. I still think they'll pull back, as we did in 1983, but there must be a real risk of meltdown at this point.

    Yes the same person... Having aggro signing in on iPad... Would probably be an idea to use this id for each device

    I didn't think ukip would cross over w Tories, in fact I offered odds of 1/7 it not and 4/1 I think on it happening before GE2015... No takers thankfully

    Completely agree on the short term gains for labour compromised by long term hardening of the right... Interesting times.... We shall see what lies ahead.... Tim has suggested Ed will tack towards Blue Labour at the election... I think that is sensible.... Many old lab voters (me, mum and dad) have nothing in common with mass immigration, Marxism, gay marriage etc but are trade union, working class etc

    I was threatened with not being let in the house if I ever voted Tory as a kid, but now even my mum shakes her head in disbelief at what labour have to offer

    Where do we go?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,481
    Sean_F said:

    On the basis of the Survation poll, there's little reason to doubt UKIP will win the Euros (barring a black swan event).

    Though if the Euros coincide with the locals, as I think they do, the higher turnout in the urban seats which are up this year may just favour Labour.

  • I do admire Richard N's fearless chutzpah. When Osborne was in mid-firestorm he declared him a "near-perfect" Chancellor. He now chooses *this* moment to describe Cameron as the second best PM for half a century...

    Well its not that much of a contest is it?

    Wilson
    Heath
    Callaghan
    Thatcher
    Major
    Blair
    Brown

    Even I, who is definitely not his fan, would probably put him third out of that lot. Clearly he is well behind Thatcher and must also be behind Blair because he has modelled himself on Blair and made many of the same mistakes and a whole lot of more that Blair would have never made.
    YouGov put Mr Cameron at the bottom. Nil points.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4880665/margaret-thatcher-best-pm-ahead-of-churchill.html
    Yes well that was based on the PMs from the last 65 years (so there are more of them too consider) and also asked who was the best PM (not to put them in order). I don't believe anyone has said Cameron is the best PM. If you extend the period back to World War II then Cameron is probably about 7th (behind Thatcher, Churchill, Attlee, McMillan, Wilson (his first term was better than his second) and Blair).
  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    edited May 2013
    Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
  • Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
    None of that matters if Cameron cannot lead people and its blatantly obvious that he is wholly inapproriate as a leader.
  • Its the 1990's all over again
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Surely Boston & Skeggy falls on those numbers. Or does it ?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    HYUFD said:
    Good to know there are mad swivel eyed loons still at work elsewhere.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Surely Boston & Skeggy falls on those numbers. Or does it ?


    I'd imagine most of the 10 seats identified would still fall to UKIP given Labour were well out of it in most and the UKIP and Tory figures are almost identical to the County Council voteshare projections as long as they pro rata up given the higher GE turnouts. Given that Boston and Skeggy was the most emphatic potential UKIP win it would still seem to be the most likely to fall

    http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
  • Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
    None of that matters if Cameron cannot lead people and its blatantly obvious that he is wholly inapproriate as a leader.
    All of it matters far more than any mid-term blues or media inflated personality battles.

    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    The relative safety of the UK will be clear to voters and the dangers of getting the economy wrong will be staring them in the face from across the channel.

    Faragist isolationism will not be an option. The US, backed by the resources of global sovereign net lenders will demand the UK's participation in the stabilisation of the EU in return for insisting that the union is radically reformed to accommodate the variant interests of its members, including the UK.

    There will be no time or tolerance at an international level for Beppe Grillo or Nigel Farage type political clowning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,449
    MickPork - Ha Ha
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    The gay wreckers (aka Yes on the clause letting heterosexual people into civil partnerships):


    Afriyie, Adam
    Aldous, Peter
    Baker, Steve
    Beith, rh Sir Alan
    Benton, Mr Joe
    Bingham, Andrew
    Brady, Mr Graham
    Bridgen, Andrew
    Brine, Steve
    Buckland, Mr Robert
    Burley, Mr Aidan
    Chope, Mr Christopher
    Clifton-Brown, Geoffrey
    Cooper, Rosie
    Crausby, Mr David
    Davies, David T. C. (Monmouth)
    Davies, Glyn
    Davies, Philip
    Dobbin, Jim
    Durkan, Mark
    Evans, Jonathan
    Field, rh Mr Frank
    Gale, Sir Roger
    Gillan, rh Mrs Cheryl
    Glindon, Mrs Mary
    Gray, Mr James
    Hendry, Charles
    Hollobone, Mr Philip
    Hughes, rh Simon
    Jackson, Mr Stewart
    Johnson, Gareth
    Jones, Mr Marcus
    Kelly, Chris
    Latham, Pauline
    Leadsom, Andrea
    Lee, Dr Phillip
    Liddell-Grainger, Mr Ian
    Loughton, Tim
    Lumley, Karen
    Main, Mrs Anne
    Maynard, Paul
    McCartney, Karl
    McDonnell, Dr Alasdair
    McIntosh, Miss Anne
    McVey, Esther
    Mills, Nigel
    Morris, David
    Mulholland, Greg
    Murphy, rh Paul
    Nuttall, Mr David
    O'Brien, Mr Stephen
    Offord, Dr Matthew
    Pincher, Christopher
    Qureshi, Yasmin
    Redwood, rh Mr John
    Rees-Mogg, Jacob
    Ritchie, Ms Margaret
    Rosindell, Andrew
    Shelbrooke, Alec
    Smith, Henry
    Spelman, rh Mrs Caroline
    Stewart, Bob
    Vickers, Martin
    Wallace, Mr Ben
    Walter, Mr Robert
    Wheeler, Heather
    Whittaker, Craig
    Whittingdale, Mr John
    Wiggin, Bill
    Williamson, Gavin

    Tellers for the Ayes:
    Mr Rob Wilson
    and
    Charlotte Leslie
  • Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
    None of that matters if Cameron cannot lead people and its blatantly obvious that he is wholly inapproriate as a leader.
    All of it matters far more than any mid-term blues or media inflated personality battles.

    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    The relative safety of the UK will be clear to voters and the dangers of getting the economy wrong will be staring them in the face from across the channel.

    Faragist isolationism will not be an option. The US, backed by the resources of global sovereign net lenders will demand the UK's participation in the stabilisation of the EU in return for insisting that the union is radically reformed to accommodate the variant interests of its members, including the UK.

    There will be no time or tolerance at an international level for Beppe Grillo or Nigel Farage type political clowning.
    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    And if you think that people will rally round a bunch of cnuts like the Tory leadership, who seemingly are to politics what village idiots are to education, who abuse their potential supporters and who are considered elitist, detached and out of touch you are delusional.

    As for participating in the 'stabilisation of Europe' what with? More vapour pounds? This country has more debt overall (bank, domestic and government combined) than every other developed nation except Japan. IIRC we owe 489% of GDP. If the Eurozone crashes chances are we're going down with it and there ain't nothing that any of those god forsaken politicians in Westminster will be able to do about it. The country will be screwed.

  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    edited May 2013

    Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
    None of that matters if Cameron cannot lead people and its blatantly obvious that he is wholly inapproriate as a leader.
    All of it matters far more than any mid-term blues or media inflated personality battles.

    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    The relative safety of the UK will be clear to voters and the dangers of getting the economy wrong will be staring them in the face from across the channel.

    Faragist isolationism will not be an option. The US, backed by the resources of global sovereign net lenders will demand the UK's participation in the stabilisation of the EU in return for insisting that the union is radically reformed to accommodate the variant interests of its members, including the UK.

    There will be no time or tolerance at an international level for Beppe Grillo or Nigel Farage type political clowning.
    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    And if you think that people will rally round a bunch of cnuts like the Tory leadership, who seemingly are to politics what village idiots are to education, who abuse their potential supporters and who are considered elitist, detached and out of touch you are delusional.

    As for participating in the 'stabilisation of Europe' what with? More vapour pounds? This country has more debt overall (bank, domestic and government combined) than every other developed nation except Japan. IIRC we owe 489% of GDP. If the Eurozone crashes chances are we're going down with it and there ain't nothing that any of those god forsaken politicians in Westminster will be able to do about it. The country will be screwed.

    The biggest and most valuable contribution to EU stabilisation that will be demanded of the UK will be continued participation in and support for an, albeit reformed, EU.

    If we want or need sheltering from the fall-out of EU collapse then the US (backed by the sovereign lenders) will insist on our continued commitment.

    The choice will be very stark and brutal. Fall into line or stand alone. If you choose the latter don't expect any help from the US or the lender countries on investment or trade or in the provision of stabilisation finance.

    It will certainly focus the minds of the swivel eyed loons in pubs on the Kentish shores.
  • Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
    None of that matters if Cameron cannot lead people and its blatantly obvious that he is wholly inapproriate as a leader.
    All of it matters far more than any mid-term blues or media inflated personality battles.

    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    The relative safety of the UK will be clear to voters and the dangers of getting the economy wrong will be staring them in the face from across the channel.

    Faragist isolationism will not be an option. The US, backed by the resources of global sovereign net lenders will demand the UK's participation in the stabilisation of the EU in return for insisting that the union is radically reformed to accommodate the variant interests of its members, including the UK.

    There will be no time or tolerance at an international level for Beppe Grillo or Nigel Farage type political clowning.
    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    And if you think that people will rally round a bunch of cnuts like the Tory leadership, who seemingly are to politics what village idiots are to education, who abuse their potential supporters and who are considered elitist, detached and out of touch you are delusional.

    As for participating in the 'stabilisation of Europe' what with? More vapour pounds? This country has more debt overall (bank, domestic and government combined) than every other developed nation except Japan. IIRC we owe 489% of GDP. If the Eurozone crashes chances are we're going down with it and there ain't nothing that any of those god forsaken politicians in Westminster will be able to do about it. The country will be screwed.

    The biggest and most valuable contribution to EU stabilisation that will be demanded of the UK will be continued participation in and support for an, albeit reformed, EU.

    If we want or need sheltering from the fall-out of EU collapse then the US (backed by the sovereign lenders) will insist on our continued commitment.

    The choice will be very stark and brutal. Fall into line or stand alone. If you choose the latter don't expect any help from the US or the lender countries on investment or trade or in the provision of stabilisation finance.

    It will certainly focus the minds of the swivelled eyed loons in pubs on the Kentish shores.
    Frankly if your doomsday scenario occurs I suspect most people will not give a flying fcuk what the (US who will have its own debts to worry about) is doing. They will be too busy trying to get through the day. Either way it won't change the reality that the people of this country will not want Cameron as their leader. They' ll choose MIliband and that has nothing to do with UKIP. Farage and UKIP didn't make Cameron or his coterie the people they are and thats what the problem is.

    As for the US well its not the first time we've entered into a fight for our survival without their help and I'm sure it won't be the last......

    As for the gratuitous attack on the good people of Kent? What else do you expect from the Tory rabble these days? However, I do hope the Tories lead the campaign to act as the USA's puppets because being as obnoxious and repellent as they increasingly are they will surely ensure through voters negative reactions to them that we are not burdened by a broken EU.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    He claimed $3.2 million of federal crop subsidies.
    HYUFD said:
  • Cyclefree said:

    In the end Cameron is not up to the job of party management and is simply not focused as PM on the one thing he was elected to do - start cutting the deficit / having a credible welfare system and putting the UK on the path of sustainable recovery. All the rest (Libya / porn filters / minimum alcohol pricing / NHS reorganisation / overseas aid and the rest) is noise. He should have focused on this, shown real progress and spent 5 years trying to educate the country and all its citizens on the imperative of earning our living in the world through hard work.

    Instead of which he has flitted about from one thing to the next as if announcing a deficit cutting programme was the same as actually doing it. You have to sweat the small stuff if you're going to bear down relentlessly on a deficit or costs but Cameron never really gives me the impression that he does any sort of sweating, I'm afraid. This may be unfair but there it is.

    Cyclefree, you are being unfair to Cameron on economic performance and deficit reduction.

    The UK has outperformed all other large EU countries in growth including Germany (excepting 2010-11). At a time when the whole of the EU (not just the Eurozone) is in recession (average), the UK has been growing.

    The deficit (PSND) has been reduced by 46% with the cyclically adjusted current budget reduced by a third. The static picture forecast for short term deficit reduction in March (based on a forecast annual 0.6% growth) will be replaced by much better short term deficit reduction figures in June when it will be clear the annual OBR forecast for growth has been exceeded in the first half.

    Employment at the same time has been held at record levels with a million jobs transferred from the public to private sector. Unemployment is being reduced overall although there will be short periods of small reversal.

    The banking sector is being reformed and recapitalised, with shares in the Lloyds Bank Group already trading at levels above book. Share sales to reduce net debt are now a real short term probability.

    The FTSE-100 index is trading at record all time highs and the cost of government borrowing has been kept at levels not seen for over a century. Quantitative Easing has been relatively minor with only £50 billion of bond purchases in the last year.

    Trade is being rebalanced away from an EU dependency and manufacturing exports in key sectors, e.g car manufacture, are at record levels. Even the decline in oil and gas extraction has been arrested following increased investment and tax incentives in the sector.

    Inflation has been kept under control if not at ideal levels. Taking out price inflation due to administrative repricing (rail fares, tuition fees etc) the underlying rate is 1.8% with little short term inflationary pressures from the labour market.

    All in all the management of the economy under the Coalition has been near exemplary in the prevailing conditions. This may not be clear today but will become increasingly apparent over the next two years as UK performance diverges further from that of France and even Germany.

    Given that the UK had near the highest levels of deficit and debt in Europe when exiting the recession the success of the coalition government is all the more remarkable.

    Standards of living may have fallen and still be falling but they can't start rising organically without the inherited structural problems in the economy first being solved, which is exactly what the Coalition government have been doing.
    None of that matters if Cameron cannot lead people and its blatantly obvious that he is wholly inapproriate as a leader.
    All of it matters far more than any mid-term blues or media inflated personality battles.

    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    The relative safety of the UK will be clear to voters and the dangers of getting the economy wrong will be staring them in the face from across the channel.

    Faragist isolationism will not be an option. The US, backed by the resources of global sovereign net lenders will demand the UK's participation in the stabilisation of the EU in return for insisting that the union is radically reformed to accommodate the variant interests of its members, including the UK.

    There will be no time or tolerance at an international level for Beppe Grillo or Nigel Farage type political clowning.
    The Eurozone is about to crash with Spain the first to fail beyond the powers of EU recovery. The social and political consequences of the fall will be truly frightening and there will need to be massive global intervention to stabilise Europe.

    And if you think that people will rally round a bunch of cnuts like the Tory leadership, who seemingly are to politics what village idiots are to education, who abuse their potential supporters and who are considered elitist, detached and out of touch you are delusional.

    As for participating in the 'stabilisation of Europe' what with? More vapour pounds? This country has more debt overall (bank, domestic and government combined) than every other developed nation except Japan. IIRC we owe 489% of GDP. If the Eurozone crashes chances are we're going down with it and there ain't nothing that any of those god forsaken politicians in Westminster will be able to do about it. The country will be screwed.

    The biggest and most valuable contribution to EU stabilisation that will be demanded of the UK will be continued participation in and support for an, albeit reformed, EU.

    If we want or need sheltering from the fall-out of EU collapse then the US (backed by the sovereign lenders) will insist on our continued commitment.

    The choice will be very stark and brutal. Fall into line or stand alone. If you choose the latter don't expect any help from the US or the lender countries on investment or trade or in the provision of stabilisation finance.

    It will certainly focus the minds of the swivelled eyed loons in pubs on the Kentish shores.
    Frankly if your doomsday scenario occurs I suspect most people will not give a flying fcuk what the (US who will have its own debts to worry about) is doing. They will be too busy trying to get through the day. Either way it won't change the reality that the people of this country will not want Cameron as their leader. They' ll choose MIliband and that has nothing to do with UKIP. Farage and UKIP didn't make Cameron or his coterie the people they are and thats what the problem is.

    As for the US well its not the first time we've entered into a fight for our survival without their help and I'm sure it won't be the last......

    As for the gratuitous attack on the good people of Kent? What else do you expect from the Tory rabble these days? However, I do hope the Tories lead the campaign to act as the USA's puppets because being as obnoxious and repellent as they increasingly are they will surely ensure through voters negative reactions to them that we are not burdened by a broken EU.
    Not only that but if the EU collapsed do you seriously think that the peoples of Europe would welcome its Phoenix like rebirth from the ashes of a broken Europe at the behest of the USA. Somehow I think that is possibly the most questionable aspect of your highly dubious scenario anyway.
  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    edited May 2013
    @smithersjones2013

    Frankly if your doomsday scenario occurs I suspect most people will not give a flying fcuk what the (US who will have its own debts to worry about) is doing. They will be too busy trying to get through the day. Either way it won't change the reality that the people of this country will not want Cameron as their leader. They' ll choose MIliband and that has nothing to do with UKIP. Farage and UKIP didn't make Cameron or his coterie the people they are and thats what the problem is.

    As for the US well its not the first time we've entered into a fight for our survival without their help and I'm sure it won't be the last......

    As for the gratuitous attack on the good people of Kent? What else do you expect from the Tory rabble these days? However, I do hope the Tories lead the campaign to act as the USA's puppets because being as obnoxious and repellent as they increasingly are they will surely ensure through voters negative reactions to them that we are not burdened by a broken EU.


    It is a doomsday scenario I admit. But I assess the probability of it happening to be around 40%. Far too high to ignore or be complacent about.

    You have to ask yourself how long a democratic government can sustain adult unemployment levels of near 30% and youth unemployment in excess of 50%. In an economy which is contracting by 0.5% per quarter with 700,000 empty and unsaleable properties all valued in bank books at at least twice their value. Spain can't survive by baby step improvements in its economy: it has to rapidly turn around its problems just to maintain civil order. And it is running out of time and the resources to effect the changes needed.

    In my view we are months away from tanks on the streets of European capitals and emergency powers granted to the military and taken to protect beseiged governments. We are unlikely to see inter-country conflict or even popular revolution leading to regime change but we will see clear popular threats to democratic governance and the rapid aggravation of existing economic problems which result from such civil disturbance. Property will be destroyed and lives lost.

    And all this will force transcontinental intervention. The US, China, Russia and the petrodollar countries all rely themselves on a stability of the EU and the return of the continent to growth is in global interests.

    More than that, the stabilisation of Europe is dependent on structural reforms to the global economy: trade and exchange rate reforms; the development of domestic markets in the BRICS countries; greater co-ordination of global economic policy etc.

    Crises resolve political deadlocks and the upcoming crisis in Europe will draw in the global economic powers and accelerate the needed reforms.

    The UK simply will not be able to isolate itself from this process. Even if the will of the people is to run for cover, realpolitik will force engagement. It is not the UK becoming the puppet of the US as in the 20th century that we need to worry about, it is having our strings pulled by the new sovereign lenders right across the globe. We may not like it but neither beggars nor borrowers have the luxury of being choosers.

    And you are the one who has pointed out the extent of our debts!

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/17/litvinenko-coroner-crucial-evidence-secret?CMP=twt_gu

    "In a judgment published on Friday afternoon, Owen acknowledged that his ruling meant the inquest scheduled to begin on 2 October could end up being "incomplete, misleading and unfair". He took the highly unusual step of inviting the government to hold a secret public inquiry into Litvinenko's killing, which would involve the sensitive excluded evidence heard behind closed doors."

    "a secret public inquiry"? that's a new one on me
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 663
    test
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 663
    new thread
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited May 2013
    http
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