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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we suffering from polling overload?
I know that might be a churlish thing for us polling addicts to say but the below graph shows the comparison of the number of Westminster VI polls conducted by BPC pollsters, in July 2009 and July 2014.
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The tory problem isn't Cameron, its Osborne. As the polls reveal.
Increasingly people are saying they don't have anything to do with the final result anyway, so what's the point of them?
I said a week or so ago, it might lead to better government if political polling were forbidden, and I think I agree with myself! It encourages short termism
"It's a five year game", "I'm as sick as a dead parrot", "We wuz robbed, that PPB was clearly offside" etc, etc.
Most of the comments on here are about slagging off the rival teams as much as asserting why your team is the best.
It's the football season ad infinitum with no break or pause. It's the very cusp of purgatory but we keep on coming back...
This would result in a dozen or so individuals on here having to totally re-organise their lives.
What would be useful is if polls were published to the first decimal point. Although noone with any sense would refer to the decimal number on an individual poll, it would help with Yougov monthly averages which could THEN be rounded to the nearest whole number.
The trend IS towards the Conservatives, but it is moving at a snail's pace, which makes the Labour Seats, Con Votes betting position a smart one I think.
Too many polls end up affecting more than reflecting public sentiment. There should be limits on the frequency.
England to declare by tea tommorow ?
Witness the way in which Murdoch's press try to use YouGovs to cheer on their Tory chums.
With one poll a week people have time to digest, review, discuss, pontificate and opine.
With four (contradictory) polls a day they barely have time to say "oh, look at that" before we are off again.
Of course PB is a strange constituency. The people paying for these polls expect an audience for their polls, not necessarily every poll published by anyone with a clipboard.
100% correct, but the damage may be already done. Even if these measures are thwarted the very fact Osborne has considered them shows he simply cannot be a tory
Any tory would have chucked these on the fire and had the f8ckwit who suggested them strung up.
How thick.
I suggest they don't bother and just authorise a load of giveaways to 'their natural constituency' and let the country go to hell in a handcart.
Or have I got the wrong party there?
Poor policymaking is why the Tories can't connect to their voter base.
Pulpstar said:
http://www.ukip.org/commercial_and_fringe_packages
Sent the form off ?
Excellent, many thanks! I can't read G*ogle in China (on the block list) but I've passed it on to a colleague to go ahead and book.
MikeK said:
I really am sorry about that Nick. all I can suggest is that you contact the organisers direct through the UKIP web page devoted to the conference. They really deserve a kicking.
There is a line further down the page that says: "To apply for individual media accreditation please click here'' Maybe that will help you.
http://www.ukip.org/doncaster
Thanks, Mike, but Pulpstar seems to have found a link, so with luck all will be well. The organisers should have let us know as they promised, but that's the sort of minor cockup that happens. Come over at the conference if you're there and we can have a drink.
state_go_away said:
I wish sometimes when various pressure groups want spending on their pet project some time is expended as to say ' That's nice where do you propose the money comes from, what will you cut?'
I've tried that as an MP - doesn't work at all. EVERYONE has a pet project they'd like to cut that they can't BELIEVE we are wasting money on instead of this fine project. Trident, MPs' expenses, council translators for immigrants, motorways, opera houses, foreign aid, aircraft carriers, green energy, energy imports, etc etc etc. I do myself, as I'm sure do you. The complex message has to be "Other spending and taxation is determined by the democratic process so must be assumed to be constant at the current or planned level, thus your proposal must be at the expense of something similar." Good luck with that.
The fact is he can't. Hence he's lost about 8-10% of his natural voters and that's down to bad politics.
How many voters will Cameron pick up in the next 9 months ?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
The unfortunate thing being if Cameron was anyway good a appealing to a broader spectrum of opinion he probably could win an outright majority.,
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
It is clear that the trend now has the Conservatives running just under Labour, having substantially closed the major gap that was there for 2.5 years. Will we now get a regular crossover and if so when are the questions which borders on guess work in an era of fixed parliaments.
Adding a decimal point would, I think, reinforce the football aspect without helping the serious analysts much (they can check out the raw data anyway) - we'd be going "Ha! 0.7% up!" The extra figure would give the impression of a precision that is not present, as a pollster once said.
The elephant in the room, in my opinion, is the huge adjustments being made to fit the data to past voting, which Pulpstar highlights from time to time. That too varies randomly and I've not had time to check out a series in detail but it'd make an interesting article if Pulpstar or anyone else did, for say the last 10 YouGovs and the last 4 ICMs. My impression, which may be wrong, is that the adjustments are rescuing the LibDem rating from being even worse (because they're finding too few people who admit to voting LD last time, so those who do are being upweighted) and depressing the UKIP score (because many Kippers were non-voters last time, which many pollsters count as not really serious). I don't think, though I could be wrong, that the Tory/Lab shares are being much affected?
I guess it is the difference between equality of outcome and equality of opportunity.
I believe that everyone who wants to attend university should be able to do so - provided that they meet the entry requirements of the course (and the course is properly accredited). I don't believe that there is an ideal percentage of people in any one generation who should be looking to get a degree.
In all seriousness, I don't think there can be too many or too few really. There is a finite amount of interest in polling in general, it seems, and it gets spread out thinner if there are more, but that they drive discussion less on their own does not in itself make having fewer good idea. It is not necessarily a bad thing if polling does not drive the narrative as much.
Hugh, Yougov has been showing a better picture for Labour than some other polling companies (until the last ICM). It would be helpful if you could look at the facts rather than an uninformed spate of trolling.
The taxpayer is still destined to pick up the bill courtesy of Willetts.
34.2 Con
33.6 Lab
10.0 UKIP
10.0 LD
Then the Conservative Lead is 1 rather than level even though they have equal shares. Doubtless journalists would attribute far too much importance to the last dp however...
The raw figures for Lib Dem and UKIP are always quite funny to look at - I think ICM in particular may well get the Lab-Con battle correct but be the wrong way round on LD-UKIP.
Flat lining anyone?
Whatever happened to the forecast that the private sector could not create 1m new jobs?
And the other poor sods are stuck with wopping bills which they'll have to get back in their salaries so we pay higher prices when companies payrolls increase accordingly.
Apes with pointed sticks are fairly predictable.
Then they come up against NATO countries with no buffer between.
It's all kind of funny in a sadly repetitive way.
15/08/2014 16:22
My article on the polling of the @MayorofLondon 's chances if he were to stand in Uxbridge will be on @ConHome tomorrow.
What you really mean is that ISIS does not have ICBM's and Putin does?
*starts singing "We'll all go together when we go"*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28801353
The other point in seeing the wood from the trees is remembering the UNV is at most a guide when dealing with Ukip and L/Ds.The local election results IMHO are more reliable as it is going to be local factors in the constituencies that count that determine the outcome.The Ashcroft marginal polling is part of that picture as well.
Andrew Neil (@afneil)
15/08/2014 16:46
Sky News setting the pace covering Ukraine Russian clash. All other news channels nowhere.
;-)
China has the cash and Russia has the gas.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/overview/
Can I point out that the target for part time soldiers might fall even further behind schedule?
But of course the rate is still higher than when the tories left office and higher than for 13 years of Labour in office. So whats your point?
Henceforth, #MegaPollingMonday will join PB phraseology folk-lore, like "swingback" "Cleggasm" and "Ed's Crap"
OT, as much as I enjoy a good poll I do think polling has become too much during this Parliament, particularly with the YouGov daily poll, Populus twice a week and all of the "minor league" pollsters like Survation, TNS and Opinium that have entered the field.
I think the last Parliament had just the right amount of monthly polls really (two YouGov's, usually two ICM's, one MORI, two ComRes, one Populus)
It was enough to keep the story-line going and create plenty of drama, but without being too much.
Nothing on the Beeb – presumably still clearing the wording with their legal dept.
http://news.sky.com/story/1319354/ukraines-forces-attack-russian-armoured-convoy
I would imagine the BBC will want government confirmation of events before bunging it on the news.
Nothing about Putin's little local difficulties, nothing to see folks, other than Mystery of Russia's Empty Trucks.
Mike takes a short break away from PB, and World War III starts.
I can see me writing a PB thread headlined
"So with the start of World War III, I look at the betting implications, will we have a Norway debate moment?"
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 32 (-1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 14 (+2), Oth 9 (=). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140815
Con 32% Lab 35% UKIP 14% Lib-Dem 9%
The BBC has blanked the story - simples.