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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Hughtim.. you are so transparent
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    As the rich holidaying Tories start to return home, will we see their YouGov ratings start to improve?
    They really need to be within 2% of Labour tonight and tomorrow to repair the damage inflicted by ICM, etc on Black Monday.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,158
    TGOHF said:

    If membership numbers were any guide to electoral success then the National Trust would be in power.

    They are in power, that's why nobody's allowed to build new houses anywhere for fear of spoiling something.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Hugh said:

    stodge said:

    Today's earnings figures also lead me to think George Osborne, whose own rank unpopularity has been laid bare by MORI, knows he has to try and give something back in his pre-election Budget. I still think the 40p threshold will be raised sharply to drag people in key marginals out of higher rate taxation.

    That said, I don't mind the longer hours and I can just about tolerate the depressed wages but to be told my rail fares (a not insignificant part of my salary) will rise another 5.6% in January is for this earner a real kick in the teeth.

    I distantly recall that what did for the Conservatives in February 1974 was a loss of support in commuter areas around London on the back of big fare increases.

    Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.

    Voters don't tend to be that grateful for tax cut bribes though, ask Osborne's role model, Gordon Brown.
    It's true, dogs always return to their vomit.
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Raising the 40% tax threshold would be a big winner for me,I just hate paying 40% of my income,and I actually refuse work because of it.
    Hugh said:

    stodge said:

    Today's earnings figures also lead me to think George Osborne, whose own rank unpopularity has been laid bare by MORI, knows he has to try and give something back in his pre-election Budget. I still think the 40p threshold will be raised sharply to drag people in key marginals out of higher rate taxation.

    That said, I don't mind the longer hours and I can just about tolerate the depressed wages but to be told my rail fares (a not insignificant part of my salary) will rise another 5.6% in January is for this earner a real kick in the teeth.

    I distantly recall that what did for the Conservatives in February 1974 was a loss of support in commuter areas around London on the back of big fare increases.

    Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.

    Voters don't tend to be that grateful for tax cut bribes though, ask Osborne's role model, Gordon Brown.
    I hate paying 40% tax rate,and I turn down work rather than increase my income and pay 40%,suspect I am not alone.
    I used the pension system for many years to keep my tax down but you have to spend it whilst you can.
    I wonder what benefit we would get from lower taxes ,high taxes turn me off,I was what could be called an entrepreneur,and employed over 100 people,but now prefer to keep my income down,and not create any jobs.

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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    jayfdee said:

    Raising the 40% tax threshold would be a big winner for me,I just hate paying 40% of my income,and I actually refuse work because of it.

    Hugh said:

    stodge said:

    Today's earnings figures also lead me to think George Osborne, whose own rank unpopularity has been laid bare by MORI, knows he has to try and give something back in his pre-election Budget. I still think the 40p threshold will be raised sharply to drag people in key marginals out of higher rate taxation.

    That said, I don't mind the longer hours and I can just about tolerate the depressed wages but to be told my rail fares (a not insignificant part of my salary) will rise another 5.6% in January is for this earner a real kick in the teeth.

    I distantly recall that what did for the Conservatives in February 1974 was a loss of support in commuter areas around London on the back of big fare increases.

    Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.

    Voters don't tend to be that grateful for tax cut bribes though, ask Osborne's role model, Gordon Brown.
    I hate paying 40% tax rate,and I turn down work rather than increase my income and pay 40%,suspect I am not alone.
    I used the pension system for many years to keep my tax down but you have to spend it whilst you can.
    I wonder what benefit we would get from lower taxes ,high taxes turn me off,I was what could be called an entrepreneur,and employed over 100 people,but now prefer to keep my income down,and not create any jobs.

    We should apply the same logic that the Tories and IDS do to the poor and unemployed and make you even poorer to give you a kick up your lazy backside.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2014
    its a 100% guarantee that the 40% bracket will be raised b4 the GE. Osborne HAS to do it.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    What's quite impressive, and apologies if anyone had mentioned this already, is that Boris takes votes from Labour, the Lib Dems and UKIP simultaneously, compared to the benchmark. That's what you call an all rounder.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2014
    Hamas Break cease fire, (BBC confirms)

    Gaza terrorists have breached the ceasefire & launched a rocket at Israel, hitting the Hof Ashkelon regional council. pic.twitter.com/YKyMv1Ncrg

    — IDF (@IDFSpokesperson) August 13, 2014

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28779813
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Ollie North: ISIS Carrying Out the 'Most Serious Genocide We Have Witnessed in Our Lifetime' http://t.co/71Xhcg8R26 pic.twitter.com/2RHJ8XsBg2

    — Joseph (Joe) M Ryan (@JosephMRyan1) August 13, 2014
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Hugh said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Hugh
    Not just UKIP
    Our society is based on greed, conflict, and exploitation.

    Of course it is. By choice of our leaders, not because apes apparently do something.

    Might as well argue that we're all socialist because we're related to ants.
    Ants are facists, not socialists.

    (Although, at the risk of being patronised by @NickPalmer, those philosophies aren't too different)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    Interesting poll think conference season could be quite intriguing this year.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    john_zims said:

    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.

    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,158
    Hugh said:


    We should apply the same logic that the Tories and IDS do to the poor and unemployed and make you even poorer to give you a kick up your lazy backside.

    Disagree, jayfdee is entitled to enjoy his gulch, he's not obliged to act as anyone's employer. Sounds like a lucky escape for 100 people anyhow...
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    GasmanGasman Posts: 132


    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.

    Keynes - you mean like running a budget surplus in the boom years?

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    HughHugh Posts: 955

    john_zims said:

    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.

    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.
    He handed a growing economy to the Tories as a result. Osborne and Cameron killed it, three lost years, one of the reasons Balls and Miliband will inherit such a basket case economy. I feel sorry for them.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2014
    Brown might go down in history as the only Prime Minister never to receive an honour(one assumes all previous PM's have been honoured???. He certainly doesn't deserve one. He ought to have been locked up.
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    HughHugh Posts: 955

    Brown might go down in history as the only Prime Minister never to receive an honour(one assumes all previous PM's have been honoured???. He certainly doesn't deserve one. He ought to have been locked up.

    Like David Cameron's friend Andy Coulson?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,542
    Hugh said:

    john_zims said:

    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.

    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.
    He handed a growing economy to the Tories as a result. Osborne and Cameron killed it, three lost years, one of the reasons Balls and Miliband will inherit such a basket case economy. I feel sorry for them.
    tim, wherever you are, please please please come back.

    All we have at the moment is sub-CiF lefty student union politics courtesy of, for example, @Hugh‌.

    Come on, tim, there's plenty to get your teeth into, what with events, and so forth.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2014
    Hugh said:

    Brown might go down in history as the only Prime Minister never to receive an honour(one assumes all previous PM's have been honoured???. He certainly doesn't deserve one. He ought to have been locked up.

    Like David Cameron's friend Andy Coulson?
    No tim, we are talking about a Prime Minister who ruined the economy. I don't think Coulson was ever Prime Minister.

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    woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Hugh said:

    john_zims said:

    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.

    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.
    He handed a growing economy to the Tories as a result. Osborne and Cameron killed it, three lost years, one of the reasons Balls and Miliband will inherit such a basket case economy. I feel sorry for them.
    Parody surely???
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    New Thread
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    woody662 said:

    Hugh said:

    john_zims said:

    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.

    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.
    He handed a growing economy to the Tories as a result. Osborne and Cameron killed it, three lost years, one of the reasons Balls and Miliband will inherit such a basket case economy. I feel sorry for them.
    Parody surely???
    tim cannot accept that Osborne called it right and that idiot Balls called it the only way he could in opposition. Balls had to hope Osborne was wrong. He wasn't , end of.

    Anyone who thinks you can turn round a basket case economy in seconds is barking mad.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,926
    Todays IPSOS MORI LAB 321 CON 283 LD 18 Other 28

    EICIPM
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited August 2014
    Looking at the last two polls and ignoring the ICM because it doesn't "seeem right/not what I am hearing on the streets/ Dan Hodges ghost poll tells a different story" I have put the figures in my Election calculator and it gives the following results*:

    Applying the Lambert & Butler model (Pony Juice derivitives)-

    (Super electric genrator with added sleigh bells forecast)

    Con vote lead 27% (increase from 19% last time)
    Con seat lead 276 seats

    (17981 Clacton on Sea simulations)

    Chance of Tory vote lead: 4,596.0% (Up from 2,578% last time)
    Chance of a Tory seat lead: 3,786% (Up from 2,163% last time)

    Chance of a Hung Parliament: 0.0004%
    Chance of a Tory majority: 3,098%
    Chance of a Labour majority: -4,765%
    Chance of Labour most votes 0.00000000000000001%

    DC for PM nailed on!

    * I reserve the right to change the figures very close to the election and make some fantastic excuse along the lines that I have tinkered with the formulation so it looks identical to what the result ends up and declare my calculator a complete success.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Hugh said:

    john_zims said:

    @Hugh

    'Well Gidders has now borrowed far more than Labour did in 13 years, so he might as well give splurge on unfunded bribes.'

    Brown's refusal to make any cuts before the GE, despite the worst crash since the 30's was definitely not a bribe.

    Of course it wasn't. Brown was spending to stave off recession. Keynes and all that.
    He handed a growing economy to the Tories as a result. Osborne and Cameron killed it, three lost years, one of the reasons Balls and Miliband will inherit such a basket case economy. I feel sorry for them.
    I know there's a new thread but for the record you are talking cobblers. All they left was a dead cat bounce paid for by unsustainable spending. Plus the Eurozone crisis caused another recession in Europe.
This discussion has been closed.