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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Pa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour
We’ve talked a lot on PB about Labour’s “electoral crutch” – the big shift to it since 2010 of Lib Dem voters which has so far remained. Well Labour has another crutch – the electoral system which could be equally or even more important.
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Someone else will come along in 5 minutes' time and say "First!". But under the rules, it will count.
O/T For Morris Dancer.
Happy 123rd birthday Erwin Schrodinger!
Anyway off to do the early shift.
EICIPM
It's still better than AV though.
(Runs for cover).
How will Salmond spin this one ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11029810/Russia-vulnerable-as-oil-prices-hit-nine-month-low-on-IEA-glut-warnings.html
Edited due to stupid spelchucker.
The range and depth of knowledge on PB is rather good at times. ;-)
Salmond's crushing defeat in the debate is great news for Yes.
Every single poll showing Yes losing is great news for Yes.
Obviously
@YesScotland: Yes support at new high in TNS poll among those certain to vote on 18 Sept #indyref #TNS twitter.com/YesScotland/status/499330805341356033/photo/1
take your pick...
It will only be perverse and unfair because the system is perverse and unfair, which the British electorate voted overwhelmingly to keep it, only 3 years ago, and which the Tories fought hard to keep.
Are you sure, IA? The version I heard is that Labour are planning to round up all the people in Africa who are suffering from Ebola, and move them to Conservative-held safe seats in southern England.
Apparently most of the polling was done during the Commonwealth Games (!) Not exactly a new poll. I really don't understand why some companies find getting their results out so hard.
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/skegness-bracing-neil-hamilton/4272
UKIP- the new broom that sweeps clean? You got to laugh, or else you cry!
Mr. Pubgoer, quantum politics does seem to be ever more popular with the political class.
What FPTP is supposed to deliver is a winners bonus by which the winner picks up a disproportionate number of seats and thus creates a stable government. This is really only working for Labour at the moment. So Cameron won 36.1% of the vote and won by a much greater margin than Blair won by in 2005 when he got 35.2% of the vote but Blair got 355 MPs and Cameron got 306.
In fact Labour got something of a "winners bonus" for getting thrashed in 2010 as can be seen by the fact that they got more seats per vote than the tories did. I think this was a result of the voting in their safe seats being particularly poor in 2010 as Brown generated no enthusiasm. I would expect turnout to be at least marginally up in these seats in 2015 which will be one of the factors that I think will reduce the extent of the distortion. It will still exist though and will be a major factor in Labour's favour.
Its latest report says despite steady falls in unemployment, there are still 868,000 out-of-work 16 to 24-year-olds.
Later on Wednesday, the latest official UK unemployment figures will be revealed.They have been falling steadily for the last year.
The IPPR highlights a striking mismatch between what young people are training for and the types of jobs available.
For example, it says, 94,000 people were trained in beauty and hair for just 18,000 jobs, while only 123,000 were trained in the construction and engineering sectors for an advertised 275,000 jobs.
The IPPR says youth unemployment is lower in countries where the vocational route into employment through formal education and training is as clear as the academic route.
It says this helps, as it puts the two on a higher perceived footing.
Although the youth unemployment rate has fallen sharply from 20.9% a year ago to 17.8%, the IPPR says there are still 868,000 unemployed young people aged 16 to 24 and 247,000 of them have been looking for work for more than a year.
About 700,000 young people have never had a job.
A Work and Pensions Department spokesperson said the IPPR's report was "misleading", arguing that the number of unemployed young people who are not working full time had dropped to about 530,000.
"Youth employment is up, youth unemployment has been dropping for 10 months in a row and the number of young people claiming the main unemployment benefit has dropped for 31 months in a row to around 250,000," a spokesperson said.
Tony Dolphin, IPPR chief economist, said: "We can learn lots from countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
"A strong workplace-based vocational education and training system, with high employer involvement, contributes more to a smoother transition from education to work and a low rate of youth unemployment than anything else."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28765465
At the same time, Sky's excellent Tim Marshall (foreign affairs, I think) has taken a sabbatical.
It may also be deliberate. Leveraging the price of oil down by the US and its allies does put pressure on the Russian economy in particular.
As an aside there are different types of people who don't vote. Some don't care, some think that the system means their vote doesn't count and some don't vote because they think all the parties are the same. I believe that UKIP is picking up the last of these three.
So while I understand why a polling company would place more emphasis on people that voted in 2010, I think that a good proportion of those saying that they'll vote UKIP in 2015, will do so.
But that's what's making this election so interesting. FPTP leads to elections being fought in 100 constituencies. But the rise of UKIP and the collapse of the Lib Dem vote share will, I think, make it a bit harder for the parties to target their resources. And I believe we may get a surprise or two.
I think the chance of Ukip taking Boston may have dropped from almost certain to only likely with the stepping down of Mark Simmonds. He was a very divisive figure - it's not often you get the local football website having regular moans about their MP. He was also seen as being the farmers' cheerleader, being accused of engineering the town's bypass so that it went through the centre of the town.
With the Lithuanian influx, hard-working though many are, the pressure on schools and health services is massive.
But Neil Hamilton? I suppose it will depend on whether it's immigration or sleaze that is the biggest issue.
Good luck with your analysis - you need it. Its the rest of us I worry about.
One of the most compelling arguments for me for a change in our voting system is that it could encourage the 80%+ of us who live in safe seats to actually take part and to make it worth while for politicians to chase our votes. If Labour was not able to take its safe seats for granted and had to pay attention to its traditional supporters it would be a better party. Not entirely sure the same logic applies to the tories but it should.
I mentioned the other night that I had been to see William McIlvanney at the Edinburgh Book Festival. He lamented that the Labour party was like politics with Alzheimer's. Every few years they went to the electorate and asked if they could remember where they had come from because they had forgotten.
Brent crude? Alex Salmond is not looking at the price of Brent crude.
The stronger pound will be helping. It will be helping other raw material prices too which should make it cheaper to turn them into manufactured goods for export, if our exporters are interested. Of course if we had real austerity and lack of spending they would really have to try.
So vote Tory, for a fairer electoral system.
That's what I'm going to do.
Huppert hold.
They conduct face to face interviews, so it takes a while for them.
That said
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 11h
It is an absolute nonsense that #IndyRef polls mostly carried out before TV debate are now being published as though they were new.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 10h
@NatBuster At this critical period before Sept 18 polls should be published within 24 hours of the fieldwork ending.
I do like your last paragraph, though. If only because it gives me an opportunity to repeat my King Charles's Head: Labour was formed to promote class politics (although until at least the 1950s it also reflected religious divisions, achieving the not inconsiderable feat of keeping Catholics and Nonconformists in the same big tent). Those forms of political cleavage, whilst still with us (at least class is) are now being buffeted by the politics of race. And I can change my class, I can change my faith, but I can't change the colour of my skin or the cultural and ethical values I learnt as a child. I'm stuck with them.
I don't think any of our Parties have really got to grips with this - they're all led by nice liberal chaps and chapesses who don't really want to get to grips with it - but sooner or later it will get to grips with them. And Labour will be first in the firing line.
Big commodity correction this summer, especially in ags. With the stronger pound a real boon to the UK consumer.
A new YouGov research has found that there’s a widespread use of technology in the work place –but for non-work related communication.
The “Switching off- Technology and the Work-Life Balance” report focuses on technology re-shaping the relationship between work and leisure among workers. The study found that six in ten workers (60%) regularly or occasionally read/send personal texts. Half (50%) send/receive personal emails and almost half (46%) engage in personal phone calls during working hours.
Personal texting and emailing is higher among the under-40s than older workers. Employees in the 25-39 age group have the highest usage of personal texting (73%), personal emailing (60%) and personal phoning (50%) at work compared to the other age groups.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/12/technology-causes-change-workplace/
So how many of you are working at your desk right now - and how many are on a break?
More fundamentally, there is a problem with safe seats not getting the attention - this is part of the reason why voters can feel alienated. I'd be keen to create an incentive for parties to spend time in these seats - personally, I like the idea of reflecting this in the size of seats, but you could also look at creaming off an "surplus" votes above a majority of 1 in any given constituency to be counted towards "national" seats, or something of this nature. It is deeply worrying, though, that the current incentive is for parties to ignore safe seats because I don't think that's healthy for our democracy
After watching Andrew Neil's documentary last night, though, it is pretty clear that whatever happens on 18th September we are heading for a major constitutional shake-up that is inevitably going to have an impact on our political parties, the way they organise and how they present themselves.
Not sure about the LDs, but Labour voted against the grubby, partisan way in which the Tories constructed their equal-sized constituencies.
http://labourlist.org/2012/08/now-lets-make-the-case-for-real-equal-constituencies/
Say average turnout is 60% in Labour seats, so UKIP is targeting 40% of the electorate. Not sure what the average Labour vote as a percentage of this turnout is in each of these seats, so let's assume they win 40% of the votes cast. Effectively this means that they are winning seats on the basis of 24% of the electorate (40% * 60*).
From UKIP's perspective, this means they need to win 60% of the non-voters (40% * 70% = 24% of the electorate) - not only to get them to turnout but also to get them to vote UKIP.
This strikes me as a real challenge. There may be some seats where it will be easier, but I suspect we will see UKIP getting a bunch of decent 3rd/2nd places in Labour seats, but not many MPs
I think we may also encourage the race issues IA has mentioned as well. When relatively small sections of the electorate are given disproportionate significance politicians will focus on them. Again, it is rational behaviour.
I expect Fllightpath is used to telling children off, and he regards Ukip supporters as stupid children who won't be told. It must be a problem for some Tories ... if only voters would see the light or listen to their wiser elders. Clearly they should be disenfranchised.
Yeah, they're going the other way though aren't they?
I wonder what the TCBs think?
http://www.thurrockgazette.co.uk/news/11404728.We_can_t_dismiss_the_Ukip_threat___Labour_s_Thurrock_candidate/?ref=rss&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
As the EZ teeters on the brink of yet another technical recession the attractiveness to Europe's youth of working in the UK is only going to increase. This is going to be a challenge and a problem for all politicians except UKIP I suppose.
Also, both parties of coalition (unsure of Labour) had a reduction of seat numbers in their manifestos.
How? Libs don't want a referendum, Cons don't want PR and have already promised a referendum?
The biggest frightener for both Tories and Labour, is a small turnout, letting UKIP in.
"How do we re-engage our politicians with the majority of the population?"
By telling them the truth? Listening to their needs!
Why do you think UKIP have picked up so much support from people who haven't voted in years?
With the advance of the internet, the truth is more accessible, making politicians lies easier to see through! People are learning and listening to other media, as ours only tells, what government want us to know!
People now see how big business and banks, are corrupting our elected politicians, they want change and they'll get it!
I wonder if some of you could help me out here.
In the 19th century, the UK expanded its empire and imposed what we called "civilisation" on the natives of those countries. This was bad according to "progressives" because it's imperialism. We shouldn't have imposed our Victorian attitudes on others.
Nowadays, the progressive view is to spread our values like democracy, diversity, apple pie and motherhood to the developing world. And this is good. We will boycott Russia if they are homophobic, we will intervene in Iraq if they democratically elect the wrong PM.
My argument about what is "good", it's an argument about consistency.
Unless Imperialism is spreading "bad views" and progressives only want to spread "good" views, so that's alright.
Or, as As Oscar said, I'm not young enough to know everything.
•For April to June 2014, there were 30.60 million people in work, 167,000 more than for January to March 2014 and 820,000 more than a year earlier.
•For April to June 2014, there were 2.08 million unemployed people, 132,000 fewer than for January to March 2014 and 437,000 fewer than a year earlier.
•For April to June 2014, there were 8.86 million economically inactive people (those out of work but not seeking or available to work) aged from 16 to 64. This was 15,000 more than for January to March 2014 but 130,000 fewer than a year earlier.
•For April to June 2014, pay including bonuses for employees in Great Britain was 0.2% lower than a year earlier, but pay excluding bonuses was 0.6% higher.
Just incredible. It is very hard to understand how we are doing this.
Bloody modern technology; I've come over all Ukip this morning.
Labour aren't in power?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28765465
In regards to democracy spreading.
Top right corner of your own post.
I'm not really making a point, it's my Ukip day.
Telling people what they must think is rarely productive, especially when you are convinced that you are the font of all wisdom. But you only learn that when you get older.
"Top right corner of your own post."
Thanks.
UK unemployment fell by 132,000 to 2.08 million in the three months to June, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate also fell to 6.4% in the quarter, down from 6.5% in May.- It means the unemployment rate is at its lowest level for six years.”
Excellent news - forget, who was the economist predicting 5m unemployed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28768552
On-topic, it;s strange that the Tories always start bleating on about this but the largest constituency of all is the one I live in, East Ham, which is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Indeed, there's a strong argument for the creation of at least one new constituency given the increasing population in East London and it's almost inevitable that would be another for the Labour column so it does work both ways.
As far as UKIP here is concerned, their candidate finished third in the Mayoral election with 6% of the vote and their few Council candidates were well stuffed (as indeed were everyone's except Labour). I could envisage UKIP finishing third in East Ham and possibly keeping their deposit but that's it.