41% of all voters say 5 more years of cuts needed, 37% of UKIP voters. Tories significantly more on 69% as are LDs on 58%, Labour significantly less on 22%, UKIP voters actually closest to the average voter on austerity, shows again why they the key swing voters next year
Yokel But still Iran which supplies the arms and money for them
They do provide the cash and organisation yes but the point is that some of the militias reportedly in the Iranian shirt sponsor camp were called out by Maliki to bolster his position. They turned up. Others havent. That suggests either no final decision has been reached or the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the Al Qods guys are not all on the same page yet.
The guy I named last night as a possible PM, Tariq Najim, is reportedly close to the Iranians though he also close to Maliki. That his name and a couple of others considered friendly to Iran(notably Ibrahim al-Jaafari) haven't come up yet is a curiosity.
As a result I'm not yet sold on where the Iranians will place their stake.
For a while this summer I stopped watching the news entirely (and posting on pb) cause I was dating about 6 women and didn't have the time. I say this not to boast, it's just the case.
And I was much happier.
Now, was the happiness because I was banging a few girls, or because I wasn't feeding myself horror, anxiety and anger from the news/Internet 24/7? I rather suspect the latter was the more important.
And yet if you avoid all news, you gradually become less involved in humanity, and less human in the end. It's a painful dilemma.
Maybe the solution is reading and listening, but not watching too often.
The ICM model is broken. Not because of weighting down previous non-voters, but because of allocating a large share of don't knows to their 2010 choice. That's just not realistic for former Lib Dems, and a heroic assumption for Tory / UKIP floaters.
Shouldn't we wait until the general election before saying that ICM's model is broken?
Not really. If the process no longer makes sense in the changed context, there's no reason not to say so. They could end up being right by accident (say the final poll is an outlier which precisely cancels out method error). The clock is stopped. Waiting until noon to decide how wrong it is may or may not 've useful, depending what time it is stopped at.
So instead of waiting for results to measure a model against, we should go on the feelings in your gut of what is realistic or not?
It's not a 'feeling in my gut', it's a reason, based on real events, why the things they used to do to make their polling more accurate are likely to make it less accurate this time round. Waiting for the result seems like a very peculiar proposal on a betting site.
It's a dramatic "ICM is broken" reaction to what is an adjustment but not a major one (aggregate total of say 50 respondents out of 1000 sample, and to an extent they cancel each other out so the effect is below even that).
It's a reason, but then how many reasons could you have produced like this before? The dramatic Conservative fall of 1997? Turnout dropping like a stone in '01 etc. All elections are special cases.
Also the reasoning is a slapdash one. You think that Lib Dem 2010 voters feel more alienated than comparable voters in other recent elections?
Ok, but that's insufficient. You then have to think that these alienated voters won't respond for other parties, or will not vote, etc (surely they would do so if more alienated?). But will still reply don't know but act differently to previous don't knows at election time.
And on this fairly minor effect, and untested reason you declare ICM is broken? It's extreme, it's defenestrating the baby because a fly landed in the bathwater.
IMO the polls don't represent how a significant number of people really intend to vote until the last few days before the election. Until then you get a lot of people venting their annoyance with their preferred party by refusing to support it when questioned by pollsters.
Comments
The guy I named last night as a possible PM, Tariq Najim, is reportedly close to the Iranians though he also close to Maliki. That his name and a couple of others considered friendly to Iran(notably Ibrahim al-Jaafari) haven't come up yet is a curiosity.
As a result I'm not yet sold on where the Iranians will place their stake.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/11027409/Benefits-Streets-White-Dee-to-speak-at-Conservative-Party-Conference.html
He was great in so many movies, gf has had Mrs Doubtfire on the last few nights.
It's a reason, but then how many reasons could you have produced like this before? The dramatic Conservative fall of 1997? Turnout dropping like a stone in '01 etc. All elections are special cases.
Also the reasoning is a slapdash one. You think that Lib Dem 2010 voters feel more alienated than comparable voters in other recent elections?
Ok, but that's insufficient. You then have to think that these alienated voters won't respond for other parties, or will not vote, etc (surely they would do so if more alienated?). But will still reply don't know but act differently to previous don't knows at election time.
And on this fairly minor effect, and untested reason you declare ICM is broken? It's extreme, it's defenestrating the baby because a fly landed in the bathwater.