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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES
There’s a new IndyRef poll out from YouGov – the firm which has generally been showing bigger NO leads and which has been critical of the way some other pollsters have been surveying this election. According to YouGov’s Anthony Wells on UKPR the firm has made adjustments to its approaches.
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An unexpectedly good Miliband performance next year could be similar.
26 hours 26 seconds
BTW I've been away a week. Has MalcolmG's head exploded?
Don't get me wrong, I will be delighted if Yougov are vindicated on the day and we find that the other pollsters are overplaying Yes.
I suspect that those who are weighting by 2011 voting patterns are probably doing so. In canvassing I have come across too many SNP voters who were voting no for it to be a coincidence. There were lots of reasons for voting SNP in 2011 starting with Iain Gray and most of them had nothing to do with peoples' views on Independence.
What the poll does show is, if anything, Yes are going backwards. The Ipsos Mori poll on the eve of the debate threatened some forward momentum again. If there was substance to that it does appear to have been stopped by Salmond's performance.
The target now for BT is not just to win but win sufficiently big to end this.
only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/08/yougov-yes-vote-remains-steady-but-low/
Scotland is going to move instead onto a debate about the nature and terms of Devomax - and, I hope, so is England. This futile Sindy debate has been killed but so has the continued political acceptability of the West Lothian Question. A more federal UK is coming.
While 80% of Yes voters think the referendum has been ‘interesting’ only 34% of No voters do so. Equally 73% of Yes voters believe the referendum has been ‘good for Scotland’, but just 10% of No voters share their view. Meanwhile, only 34% of Yes voters believe the campaign has gone on too long, whereas 71% of No voters do. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, there appears to be widely held feeling amongst No voters that they should not have had to go through the whole process in the first place, and that – so long as their side wins – they will be glad when it is all over.
The poll of polls, for what that is worth, is currently sitting on 57:43, a slight (1%) movement to no with only 1 truly post debate poll in. It is still close enough to worry but there is little sign of the kind of surge that Yes need.
As more powers are devolved to the Scottish Parliament the WLQ does get more acute. The McKay Commission was something of a failure in this respect and some serious work needs to be done to work out how we can have a Labour government of the UK which has a minority in England and arguably should not be able to regulate domestic policy. This is all too likely to be the position after the next election.
On WLQ Redwood is sensibly proposing days when English domestic legislation is voted on by only English MPs and if the Government of the day has to adjust legislation to ensure it gets an English majority, so be it
Who gets to propose legislation? What do we do when Labour decide to cut the Free School budget and the majority of English MPs oppose this? Having the ability to block changes is not enough.
We really have had enough sticking plasters and botched jobs on this. If we are going to have a more federal system we have much more fundamental work to do.
Mobile phone companies have failed – it's time to nationalise them - It may sound like off-the-wall leftiness, but there are clear and convincing arguments for a nationalised mobile phone network
This is the bit that gets my goat
And here is where the point about a natural monopoly creeps in. Mobile phone companies build their masts, but don't want to share them with their competitors.
Has little Owen never heard of project cornerstone, o2 and Vodafone's mast and backhaul sharing project
http://www.telecoms.com/45267/vodafone-o2-extend-uk-net-share-across-2g-3g-4g/
Or
MBNL, EE and 3's sharing their masts
http://mbnl.co.uk/
I hear that the "Yes" camp are preparing for defeat by planning to demand a second referendum in which the English living in Scotland will not have a vote but Scots exiles worldwide will.
That sounds too bizarre to be true!
Oh and Three's owned by Hutchison Whampoa.
I know someone who is a germophobe, it isn't that bizarre.
He's from the Sheldon Cooper school of hygiene.
Hot air blowers are incubators and spewers of bacteria and pestilence. Frankly it would be more hygienic if they just had a plague infested gibbon sneeze my hands dry.
I met a firebrand lady in one of the YES tents who told me she'd been a London Labour councillor in the early seventies. She was part of London's loony left. She'd been living in Scotland now for 35 years and far from the result being a done deal it's all going to come down to what the Labour voters of the central belt decide.
She told me of canvassing in London in 1970 and sensing that all wasn't well. Tory voters she said vote for their team regardless. If Labour voters aren't happy they just stay at home. This silent protest she said is well known to Labour canvassers and the mood in 1970 was very black.
She said this is what she senses here. These voters are being counted as NO but she thinks there will be a surprise.
"So you don't think my £100 on 60/40 for 'Better Together' is a winner then?"
Then the loudest and longest throaty laugh I've ever heard broke the genteel Aberdonian air "F*CK OFF!!"
He's from the Sheldon Cooper school of hygiene.
Hot air blowers are incubators and spewers of bacteria and pestilence. Frankly it would be more hygienic if they just had a plague infested gibbon sneeze my hands dry.
More amusing to watch too...
Still don't believe the part of the story where his aide puts on the sanitiser for him.
If UK, then the non-English MPs get to vote on the monies available for English education. I suppose you could make the Budget itself a 30,000ft affair - setting the spending envelope but then letting the English MPs decide how they want to spend it. But then what happens if they pass an amendment to English legislation that has spending implications?
Still don't believe the part of the story where his aide puts on the sanitiser for him.
I can actually believe that - if his flunky is carrying the santiser it's just as easy to put it on as to hand over the bottle. It's the flunky doing the rubbing in that I struggle with...
Durham is very good for law so would recommend that. I am a bit biased as my husband taught there and I have hired lawyers who studied there but it has a good recommendation. Durham and surrounding countryside is also a lovely place to live.
I am less impressed with the LSE.
Whatever your daughter chooses I hope she enjoys her time at university. My daughter is starting this autumn and - and I'm sure some on this thread will appreciate this - she will be studying Classical Civilization.
We're now waiting for GCSE results........fingers crossed.
Still don't believe the part of the story where his aide puts on the sanitiser for him.
More likely, Salmond asked to "borrow" someone else's sanitiser, and the rest of the story makes sense. It would be natural for the sanitiser owner to hold the bottle upside down for the recipient.
Roger The referendum will likely have an 80%+ turnout according to the polls, Darling's debate victory seems to have shored up the Labour vote and in 1970 turnout was still higher than 2010 so that story is rather exaggerated
That was my problem with it... !
That story has the ring of truth. I hope the witnessing MSP goes on the record.
This story reminded me of Prince Charles having toothpaste squeezed onto his brush by a servant.
Was the 'King' really wearing new clothes or was mind bleach needed?
That's not uncommon around these parts, but due to the dearth of servants, its usually the wife.
More like you are talking out of your ring
Unless he had lace cuffs, Eck is still a commoner; a position he may not relish.
You will be used to your flunkies doing it for you for sure, however why you would expect a normal human being to do the same is hard to imagine.
He's from the Sheldon Cooper school of hygiene.
Hot air blowers are incubators and spewers of bacteria and pestilence. Frankly it would be more hygienic if they just had a plague infested gibbon sneeze my hands dry.
Even more so is air conditioning, which if not properly treated bio-chemically in the heat exchangers can be a potent source of legionnaire's disease.
I might of guessed it would be cretin that posted such tripe. Just about your level.
The final projection will be to a half point and very tight whether it tumbles into a full point projection I'll not know until later tonight ....
Ah .... but you meant between the combatants ....
I couldn't possibly say ....
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n9xblv6gc0/Sun_Results_Scottish_Independence_140807.pdf
Lets hear no more borlocks about internet voting at supermarkets over a weekend.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/n9xblv6gc0/Sun_Results_Scottish_Independence_140807.pdf
10% of SNP Holyrood VI would vote NO
Also 26% of SNP VI Holyrood Constituency 2011 vote NO.
48% of 16-24 vote NO
53% Born in Scotland vote NO
Sample Size is 1142
Louis XIV? The Sun King? Not with Scotland's climate....
If SNP lose referendum vote, could Labour win more seats in Scotland ? Could Labour also benefit elsewhere in the UK, because they had helped to save the union ?
SNP will be weakened after losing a referendum vote, because they exist to pursue an independent Scotland. If they fail to convince the public that Scotland would be better off with their own government in Edinburgh, then Labour could perhaps benefit as a result. Also Labour have been able to contribute towards saving the union, much more than the Tories were able to do so, so may gain some credit for this. As I have stated before, the Tories failure in Scotland to win over support for their brand of politics is a factor behind the independence move. Tories are hated by a sizeable portion of Scottish people.
I might "of" guessed??
Malc - your not defecting to the Kippers, are you?
(Edit: apologies Nats, Kippers one and all - thoroughly uncalled for...it's early..)
Malc - your not defecting to the Kippers, are you?
(Edit: apologies Nats, Kippers one and all - thoroughly uncalled for...it's early..)
Your not? Your not?
I need a lie down
Congrats to Mr. L's daughter.
And don't forget to check my mid-season review, with a few thoughts on how the 2015 driver market might go and a P&L graph:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-2014-mid-season-review.html
It's like in 2005 when the Tories got more votes in England, but loads less MPs. You might have thought it was politically unacceptable for this to continue, but you'd have been wrong.
I'm sure you're right. There is, I'm afraid, little connection between what is acceptable and what will actually transpire. But at some point in the future a party will put this in its manifesto. I may be quite wrong on this but FWIW I reckon a manifesto pledge to resolve the WLQ would be very popular in England. MAybe UKIP will go first. But then others will feel obliged to follow suit. Probably Tories next to do so. This issue won't go away. But may take decades to be addressed.
It looked like a massive oversight years ago, how did Salmond manage to get caught out so badly when he's had all this time to prepare an answer?
I need a lie down
Not a “Welsh Not” I sincerely hope!
If I had my time again though, I probably wouldn't have done a Law degree. Spend three years doing something less enervating than discussing making bridges that were never designed to meet in the middle. Do astronomy or archaeology or something else beginning with A. Then spend a year doing the law catch-up - if that is really what she still wants.
In Scotland, there isn't that broadly semi racist Euro phobia that we have in parts of England[ London excluded ]
What you have to understand there are very few marginals in Scotland.
As antifrank correctly forecast, not a single seat changed hands in Scotland between the 2005 GE and the 2010 GE (the by-elections don't count)
Some of the comments that were aimed at Brown, were anti-Scottish, and I can see how that could have boosted Labour's vote in Scotland.
1. 'Dollarisation' a la Panama - just use Sterling anyway. But no lender of last resort, no backstop for Scottish banking system and the entire financial services industry heads south. Huge problem also of physical availability of notes and coins. Local bank runs out of notes on a Tuesday afternoon = bank run. Very, very unstable arrangement unless the 'cuckoo' user is WAY smaller than the parent provider (as is the case of Panama/USA).
2. The Euro - good luck with that!
3. The Groat. Actually the only real option for a truly 'indpendent' Scotland. But this implies a balanced budget and the ability to borrow in the bond markets. Good luck with that in the big deficit, statist lefty Jockutopia.
4. All the above mean that Scotland's extant national debt would be in a foreign currency (the Pound). Repaying their share in Sterling could become unserviceable quickly if exchange rates move.
Which adds up to a fact that has been obvious to all but Salmond for a LONG time. Scotland could manage fine as a truly independent nation - but only with its own currency/central bank/regulator and a debt/deficit trajectory that would not take it rapidly to Argentinian territory. So lefty welfare statism is not on the cards. The Scotland of Adam Smith would be a fine country. But that mindset seems part of Scotland's heritage not its current reality.
They don't really kick up much of a fuss about the unfair voting system either. Strange.
That's a very interesting viewpoint about specialising too early.
I would loved to have done history (still my best hobby and am castle-mad to the annoyance of my family) but ended up doing Chemical Engineering as I was very good at Chemistry. Business at Harvard sort of rounded me off, but whilst still getting excited about new technology, my first love will always be history and its application to today and tomorrow and perhaps makes me a more-rounded person.
I need a lie down
I'm not surprised - reading Owen Jones is enough to discombobulate anyone for weeks.
The insanity is large.
The fact that it is extremely hard to find a long term success of disparate nations fused into a cohesive single unit should tell us something about the history of 'super' nation building using individual nations as the building blocks.
About the best example may well be UK, which some want to break up.
Alex Salmond delivered a whole-hearted defence of the euro yesterday and predicted that Scotland would successfully flourish if the country cut its ties with sterling and embraced the European single currency.
Speaking to an audience at one of Brussels' most influential think tanks - the Centre for European Policy Studies - the SNP leader described the pound as ''a millstone round Scotland's neck'' and challenged the euro's supporters to launch a more aggressive debate against the new currency's critics. ''I think that being outside the euro area is already penalising the Scottish economy. In the medium-term, the longer we stay out, the more damage will accumulate. The euro is an example of why Scotland needs membership status so that it can take a decision on entry into the single currency,'' he said
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/salmond-in-call-to-dump-millstone-of-the-pound-1.263204
And no blisters! :-)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-28732732
And I'm embarrassed to say, I bitched and moaned yesterday because I got drenched, the 25 metres I walked from the car park to tesco.
Sterling today has a favourable interest rate differential to the Euro. It will not always be the same. If you look at the last 35 years, the pound has had more "crashes" than most currencies.
I know, it has forced me to defend o2, and I hate o2.