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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer cur
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader
Looking at the detail in the table above we see that there’s a 5% drop amongst current CON supporters with the main beneficiary being the Lib Dems.
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1st?
Still, normally if you've got some people who currently support Party X led by Y, and you remove Y, you'd expect some of them to stop supporting Party X. Boris would be doing incredibly well to lose zero of them.
PS. The ones I wonder about are the 3% who say they intend to vote Conservative at the next election, then YouGov ask, "What if David Cameron is still leader?", and they say, "Oh, in that case I'd vote for someone else".
http://www.boriswatch.co.uk/2014/05/17/mad-dogs-and-londoners-go-out-on-the-boris-bus/
The other factor is Eddie Mair's interview with Johnson,one which was picked up by PB as outstanding,the bit that still resonates is "the nasty piece of work" question.There may well be a lot more of that to come.
On the other hand the Tories are clearly having a hard time putting together enough people in the same tent to win a majority, so if they're serious about a majority, they need to broaden their appeal anywhere they reasonably can. If you've got ethnic groups that are voting against Party X across the board, they probably include people who would tick a lot of "likely Party X" boxes except for their ethnicity, so they'd seem like the kind of people you should be trying hard to persuade.
This is particularly important if you're thinking about the long term rather than just the next election, because once you've fixed the branding problem that's stopping generally conservative people from voting Conservative they should stick with you next time, unlike floating voters who aren't particularly disposed either way, who you're going to need to win over with a good campaign or a charismatic leader or whatever time after time.
But the fact that just doing that shifts 3% of the sub-sample feels like a clue that we shouldn't be taking too much notice of the way the next 5% of the sub-sample moves.
Far far fewer people like him as a politician.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720943/Cables-fury-Nick-Clegg-allies-spread-Vince-set-quit-rumours-whispering-campaign.html
" Well-placed sources revealed 71-year-old Business Secretary plans exit
Vince Cable blasted claims as 'nonsense', claims he will stay to election
Many within party say he is planning 'a Hague' and will leave in reshuffle"
Look at London. The Tories are being squeezed out.
Good riddance.
Sadly for you the electorate at large don't show the hostility for Muslims - let alone a party that wins their support as you do. Winning ethnic minority votes and winning the white working class are not mutually exclusive aims you dolt.
Working class white people in Tottenham care just as much about their sure start centers and local NHS services as working class black people.
In motorsport news, multiple-time NASCAR and sprint racing champion Tony Stewart, hit and killed another driver, Kevin ward, during a dirt track race.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/aug/10/nascar-crash-tony-stewart
From the looks of the video (which I will not link to as it is slightly graphic), Stewart might be in trouble. At the very least, safety systems need to be looked into, pronto.
Anyway - can we establish that ethnic minority voters does not equal just muslims. Plenty of Indian and black voters that the Tories are like kryptonite to.
Leaving that aside, 53% of the vote went to Right-wing parties in the Euro elections. Current polling puts them on about 46%, up from 40% at the last election. There is no evidence at all that the pool of voters the Conservatives needs in order to win power is diminishing.
Where the Conservatives struggle is in their efforts to persuade enough Right-wing voters to support them.
Sadly this is a 'made in Britain' problem.
The Tories haven't won a majority in 22 years and they aren't about to win one for the next 5 at the very least.
Or the SNP
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/michaelnazirali/100282928/the-west-must-face-the-evil-that-has-revealed-itself-in-the-iraq-genocide/
The Republicans lose the house pretty much everytime. Its only because they have gerrymandered the house that they ever win a majority.
Using the logic deployed by the PB Tories on here that would be a disaster as 90% of the electorate would automatically be less likely to vote for the Tories....
"A Tory led government is set to exclude huge swathes of the Uk"
What on earth does that mean?
Absolutely. And it changed almost everything about the party in order to win one.
I merely suggest that one of the thinsg the Tories need to do is grow up and not group all ethnic minorities together (or refer to them as Muslims) recognise they are an important and growing demographic and start try to appeal to them, rather than condescend and be outright hostile.
But hey. It seems the Tories aren't that fussed about winning majorities in the future.
As for other minorities I am in complete agreement as I have said plenty of times on the website and at meet ups. The Tories need to find a way to reach black and Indian voters. They have made a lot of progress with the latter group already with Cameron and I think they need to do a lot more to appeal to black voters. I just don't believe that Warsi is correct that the Cons should follow Ed Miliband and effectively support Hamas in the Israel/Palestine conflict to woo Muslim voters.
Look at London? Why not look at the rise of UKIP which is built on the reaction to Socialists pro immigrant pro multiculturalist stance? UKIP has nothing to do with the EU anymore. iot is riding on anti immigant bigotry.
The tories must remain centrist and the promotion of Sajid Javid typifies that. The right need to realise that splitting themselves plays to labours game.
She did. the Tories on here dismissed her. I merely suggest unless they want to keep losing the Tories take her advice,
The Tories need to bring in more ethnic minority candidates and all women shortlists. They are simply too full of old white men. A electoral disaster.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720896/Revealed-Tory-MPs-plot-dump-Dave-Boris-100-MPs-ready-vote-Queen-s-Speech-forcing-Prime-Minister-resign.html
The false dichotomy presented here that trying to appeal to ethnic minority voters would cost the support of white people. Clearly nonsense but thats not the way some think.
doesn't seem to be doing UKIP any harm in labour's back yard.
And where did they conduct this poll? Too many Tory backbenchers are of course pretty thick - but really... to vote down your own govt on a Queens Speech? They think that is a good way to start a general election campaign?
How absurd is the notion? How absurd is the report?
It presumes of course that Boris becomes leader, which is far from certain.
'Today's DM reports over 100 MPs are ready to oust Cameron in favour of Boris' -- Such a policy is beyond the power of the MPs. They can only set up an election for the membership to give a final decision on. They cannot 'select' Boris.
So another absurdity about the report.
All UKIP have done in Labour heartlands is coalesce anti Labour votes around them. Labour is still the most supported party amongst D & E voters by a long way.
Number of UKIP MPs = 0
Some electoral success.
The labour result in 2015 will tell us if its a false dichotomy or not.
Labour lost support for a number of reasons. I doubt in the top 20 was "it tried to win Muslim votes"
I am amazed this is even a necessary conversation. Labour only just got beat at the last election in terms of seats. Despite a feck off big recession and 13 years of government. If the Tories want to change this state of affairs it needs do to change a few things about themselves.
Less men, more women - Bring in AWS
More ethinic minority MPs
A hell of a lot less posh middle aged white people
Certainly will be when it comes to the number of MPs UKIP has north of the Watford gap. I can only see Farage winning.
(Admittedly this has been known to backfire and end up with the membership actually picking that person...)
Now I have so-called progressives like IOS telling me that It is not only right but it is also proper to treat people as homogeneous groups. That all Muslims, for example, think along certain lines and that policies should be tailored to court groups and not people.
IOS may be correct in terms of today's politics but if he is then I am sorry because then we have lost our way. Moreover, I am never going to conform. I refuse to see people grouped by stereotypes, I bloody well will not do it.
One of my clients was chap called Kieran, a fairly successful business man, with a nice house and a very nice family that he worked hard for. He had a lot in common with another client called Max. They thought along very similar lines and had very similar concerns. Kieran is the son of a Ugandan-Asian who arrive in this country with bugger all after being kicked out by Idi Amin. Max is the youngest son of an old English family which has held the same land for centuries.
No. The view that IOS espouses is really no different from that of Hitler and his gang in the twenties and thirties. Once you assign people to groups and stereotype the group then you can start blaming the group and the people stop being people. It is wrong.
I very much doubt that question has ever been asked, and I also very much doubt anyone would ever admit that was their motivation for not voting labour, even if it were true.
Still, I suppose its good for the confidence of you and your party that you have not been in the least bit shaken or tempted to change course by what happened in Rotherham, Sunderland, Grimsby etc.
Pissing it down in Yorkshire.
Mr. IOS, it's not so very long ago that Labour peer Lord Ahmed was threatening to summon an angry horde of 10,000 if a Dutch politician showed a film, and even more recent was the very civilised and reasonable march through London, where friendly placards with messages such as "Death to the West" and "Behead those who insult Islam" were present in large numbers.
Edited extra bit: just read about the report of 500 being buried alive by ISIS.
I'd say it's unbelievable... but after they crucified children, it isn't.
Is this some sort of sick joke! I am simply point out how anyone - politicians or otherwise - should develop a marketing strategy - and that is through breaking the electorate up into groups. The Tories here are doing this and drawing the conclusion that they simply shouldn't bother.
But hey this is PB where you get compared to Hitler for suggesting that the Tories need to engage and try and win ethnic minority voters.
Lunacy.
However, if you do, one thing you should be asking is why people of particular ethnicities think on similar lines and have similar concerns to people who vote Conservative, but tend not to vote Conservative themselves. This may be a branding problem - eg they think the Conservatives are hostile to their ethnicity even though they're not really. But it may also be that there are some things that Conservatives, given the underlying values that they presumably share with these voters, are currently doing wrong, and it's people of those ethnicities who are paying attention to it.
Er what do you think any marketing organisation does. It profiles groups and creates a message and narrative. Political parties should do this. As ethinic minorities will define themselves as such it makes sense to communicate in a language that shows you respect and understand that. But when it comes to policies - as I said earlier - the working class black man from tottenham cares just as much about the local NHS services and sure start as his white working class neighbour.
The Tories cannot communicate with either of these groups and positively alienate the first. If the Tories show no interest or desire in changing this then they will never ever win a majority again.
Warsi is right.
Milibands position is going to be motivated by his values - and particularly that of his mother. They have both long campaigned for a secure Palestinian state along a viable secular Jewish state.