SeanT The Jewish vote is now much more pro Tory, and seats like Finchley and Golders Green, Harrow East and Hendon were won back by the Tories in 2010 helped by the Jewish vote. The Muslim vote will never vote Tory in significant numbers, so each are leaning to their base, while nominally pressing for peace
"As for hearing Cameron's views, it's not about him expressing 'a view'; it's about him taking a stand ..."
Take a stand? Do you mean issuing a strongly worded press release? Maybe even making a speech. What else can he do and who would care what he said? I suppose the DfID can double the amount it gives to its women in war zones fund or whatever they call it, but I don't think that will make any difference. Maybe we could send Justine Greening to Gaza, a pointless gesture to be sure but she might not come back which would be a plus.
"Journal axes gene research on Jews and Palestinians
Robin McKie, science editor
Sunday November 25, 200: (The Observer) A keynote research paper showing that Middle Eastern Jews and Palestinians are genetically almost identical has been pulled from a leading journal.
Academics who have already received copies of Human Immunology have been urged to rip out the offending pages and throw them away. "
As the General Election approaches, there must be convergence between FIsher and Baxter models as Baxter is a nowcast, and Fisher a forecast which are both based off the polls.
For there not to be a gap at the current point would be highly unusual and would indicate that no swing (either way) is expected from now till May 2015.
Personally I think Fisher is slightly closer to the actual result than Baxter right now - in particular for Labour seats. My estimate of 312 fits between the two which makes sense to me.
October is probably the last chance for the Fisher model, if there is no swing back by then, its over.
Seems to be happening in the Yougov monthly average - which is by far the largest collection of polling data - but its a pretty slow swingback I'll agree with that. If the polls go as you say then I suspect Mr Fisher will be predicting Lab seats 300+ in October.
There has been almost no change in the Tory vote for months only a drift of the Labour vote to others, swingback is supposed to be an increase in the government party and a drop in the opposition and so far we haven't seen that.
Using Fisher's idea of a past performace predicting the future I can spin the past like this:
In the past 10 elections with regular polling only 5 had swingback, from those 5 two were special circumstances like war (1983) and leadership change (1992), only 3 (1987, 1997 and 2010) were due to the economy, from those 3 only 1 gave a government it's re-election (1987). So by past performace, the chances of the Tories staying in power after the next general election is 1 out of 10.
On average swingback for economic reasons started 15 months before an election. And the closest swingback started was 6 months before an election. We are now 9 months away so we are getting close to the point of no return.
This assumption is as accurate as any past performance average you can get.
Labour's lead has gone from 11% 15 months ago, to 3% now. It seems pretty certain, barring some black swan event, that the Conservatives will finish ahead, in terms of votes, next year. The only question is whether that'll result in a lead in seats.
The reason Cameron hasn't spoken out about Gaza is fear of alienating 1. Jewish voters, 2 Jewish donors and 3. The Jewish lobby in America. Of them all I bet 2 is most important.
BECAUSE he is Jewish Ed Miliband is covered, he can't be accused of anti-Semitism, the Muslim vote is much bigger than the Jewish vote, he knows that much of the pro-Israeli lobby will support him anyway, simply because of his identity. Miliband also knows that criticising Israel right now will be very popular with his core vote, and will appeal to the millions of floating voters, appalled by the carnage in Gaza.
It's win win win, for Miliband. Of course he may actually BELIEVE what he says, despite the obvious partisan advantage he also gains.
It's all America, of course it is. Cameron will only ever echo, or even be a diplomatic outrider for, America's views. There's no other rational explanation. Go after Russia -not good for energy security, very bad for the City, but in line with the US. Same with being 'firm' with China -lost us billions in investment compared to other countries. Admirable in its own way, if we weren't in bed with far worse human rights abusers. Pakistan, Syria, Libya, all the same. Our own national interest is sublimated to those of what is effectively a colonial power.
The reason Cameron hasn't spoken out about Gaza is fear of alienating 1. Jewish voters, 2 Jewish donors and 3. The Jewish lobby in America. Of them all I bet 2 is most important.
BECAUSE he is Jewish Ed Miliband is covered, he can't be accused of anti-Semitism, the Muslim vote is much bigger than the Jewish vote, he knows that much of the pro-Israeli lobby will support him anyway, simply because of his identity. Miliband also knows that criticising Israel right now will be very popular with his core vote, and will appeal to the millions of floating voters, appalled by the carnage in Gaza.
It's win win win, for Miliband. Of course he may actually BELIEVE what he says, despite the obvious partisan advantage he also gains.
The answer is that Conservative (and crucially, UKIP) voters are more likely to put the blame on Hamas than on Israel, according to today's poll.
But, why should he do differently? We have no dog in this fight.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
"Israel's actions have been disproportionate and risk unnecessary loss of civilian life, said David Cameron and William Hague – not this week but almost exactly eight years ago.
The occasion was Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which resulted in more than 1,000 deaths. It appears that the Conservative leadership is once bitten, twice shy, following the backlash caused by those comments. "Not merely unhelpful but downright dangerous," was the verdict of the Tory donor Sir Stanley Kalms at the time."
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to further the interests of Israel is quite refreshingly stupid, even for you. You don't actually expect us to believe this? Do you?
No.
But Jews are just doing what everyone else does: every interest group lobbies for its interests, and uses all democratic means to do so. And I say good luck to them. That is democracy, and Jews are hardworking, smart people, who have struggled against vast prejudice to reach their influential position.
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
"Israel's actions have been disproportionate and risk unnecessary loss of civilian life, said David Cameron and William Hague – not this week but almost exactly eight years ago.
The occasion was Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which resulted in more than 1,000 deaths. It appears that the Conservative leadership is once bitten, twice shy, following the backlash caused by those comments. "Not merely unhelpful but downright dangerous," was the verdict of the Tory donor Sir Stanley Kalms at the time."
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to further the interests of Israel is quite refreshingly stupid, even for you. You don't actually expect us to believe this? Do you?
No.
But Jews are just doing what everyone else does: every interest group lobbies for its interests, and uses all democratic means to do so. And I say good luck to them. That is democracy, and Jews are hardworking, smart people, who have struggled against vast prejudice to reach their influential position.
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
I thoughgt the Die Hard baddies were a pair of German brothers and a rogue US Colonel and Computer specialist-type dude.
Don't be silly. Miliband is racially Jewish because of the genes he inherited from his parents. He is religiously not Jewish because he is an atheist, and - how difficult is this, really? - religious Jews believe in the existence of a God. Anti-semites, of whom I am sure you are not one, routinely try to fudge the distinction in the idiot-cunning hope of disguising racism as something else. Everyone else finds it relatively easy.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
"Israel's actions have been disproportionate and risk unnecessary loss of civilian life, said David Cameron and William Hague – not this week but almost exactly eight years ago.
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to further the interests of Israel is quite refreshingly stupid, even for you. You don't actually expect us to believe this? Do you?
No.
But Jews are just doing what everyone else does: every interest group lobbies for its interests, and uses all democratic means to do so. And I say good luck to them. That is democracy, and Jews are hardworking, smart people, who have struggled against vast prejudice to reach their influential position.
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
I thoughgt the Die Hard baddies were a pair of German brothers and a rogue US Colonel and Computer specialist-type dude.
I bloody loved Die Hard 4.0. No matter what Mark Kermode may think.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
"Israel's actions have been disproportionate and risk unnecessary loss of civilian life, said David Cameron and William Hague – not this week but almost exactly eight years ago.
The occasion was Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which resulted in more than 1,000 deaths. It appears that the Conservative leadership is once bitten, twice shy, following the backlash caused by those comments. "Not merely unhelpful but downright dangerous," was the verdict of the Tory donor Sir Stanley Kalms at the time."
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to further the interests of Israel is quite refreshingly stupid, even for you. You don't actually expect us to believe this? Do you?
No.
But Jews are just doing what everyone else does: every interest group lobbies for its interests, and uses all democratic means to do so. And I say good luck to them. That is democracy, and Jews are hardworking, smart people, who have struggled against vast prejudice to reach their influential position.
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
The logical outcome of your position is that Israel cannot be accused of abusing its power, nor can any individual of Jewish extraction be accused of abusing his or her power.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
"Israel's actions have been disproportionate and risk unnecessary loss of civilian life, said David Cameron and William Hague – not this week but almost exactly eight years ago.
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to further the interests of Israel is quite refreshingly stupid, even for you. You don't actually expect us to believe this? Do you?
No.
But Jews are just doing what everyone else does: every interest group lobbies for its interests, and uses all democratic means to do so. And I say good luck to them. That is democracy, and Jews are hardworking, smart people, who have struggled against vast prejudice to reach their influential position.
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
I thoughgt the Die Hard baddies were a pair of German brothers and a rogue US Colonel and Computer specialist-type dude.
I bloody loved Die Hard 4.0. No matter what Mark Kermode may think.
Die Hard 5.0 was a bit meh.
I wrote a PB thread whilst watching in the cinema.
To achieve an overall majority next May, the Tories need to advance against Labour by an average of approx 1.2% per month over the intervening period. That sounds like a big ask, although not quite so big if this were to occur by means of Labour's share of the vote receding by 0.6% per month, whilst the Tories' share advanced to the same extent.
NOM still looks like the best bet against this backdrop.
To achieve an overall majority next May, the Tories need to advance against Labour by an average of approx 1.2% per month over the intervening period. That sounds like a big ask, although not quite so big if this were to occur by means of Labour's share of the vote receding by 0.6% per month, whilst the Tories' share advanced to the same extent.
NOM still looks like the best bet against this backdrop.
If there's a swingback from 2010 LD switchers (or simply they don't vote next year) then it is feasible, but NOM is where I've been for a while
Don't be silly. Miliband is racially Jewish because of the genes he inherited from his parents. He is religiously not Jewish because he is an atheist, and - how difficult is this, really? - religious Jews believe in the existence of a God. Anti-semites, of whom I am sure you are not one, routinely try to fudge the distinction in the idiot-cunning hope of disguising racism as something else. Everyone else finds it relatively easy.
Jews are not allowed to be atheist. I'm afraid and regret that no one lets them.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
The logical outcome of your position is that Israel cannot be accused of abusing its power, nor can any individual of Jewish extraction be accused of abusing his or her power.
But of course that is the intention. Pro-Israel intellectuals are incredibly keen to conflate anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism, so that ANY criticism of Zionist racism and expansionism must be seen as racist and bigoted and "anti-Semitic", and therefore disallowed from polite discourse.
We see vague stabs in this direction even in the polite realms of pb.
Unfortunately for the Zionists the attempt has failed, thanks to social media and the internet rendering all opinions equally valid and uncensorable (and also revealing the racism within Israel itself).
It was a close run thing, though. Thank Yahweh for Tim Berners Lee.
So criticism of Israel extends to pointing out the " big wallets" pulling Cameron's strings?
"Ukip could cost Labour victory in next year’s general election by winning several key seats thanks to dramatic advances made by Nigel Farage’s party in a range of largely working-class constituencies. The most detailed analysis yet of Ukip’s performance in recent ballots, including those for this year’s European Parliament and local elections, allied with the latest census data, concludes that complacency in Labour ranks over the Ukip threat could be a major factor in Ed Miliband’s battle for Downing Street."
To achieve an overall majority next May, the Tories need to advance against Labour by an average of approx 1.2% per month over the intervening period. That sounds like a big ask, although not quite so big if this were to occur by means of Labour's share of the vote receding by 0.6% per month, whilst the Tories' share advanced to the same extent.
NOM still looks like the best bet against this backdrop.
If there's a swingback from 2010 LD switchers (or simply they don't vote next year) then it is feasible, but NOM is where I've been for a while
There are other imponderables, eg. Labour non-voters, Labour -> UKIP switchers, Labour -> Green switchers, etc.
Er, no. Just that it is interesting to see some familiar tropes emerge from perfectly justified criticism of Israel.
Being aware that something is a familiar trope is intended (in my opinion) to combat generalisations, lazy thought processes, prejudice, and the injustice and offence that may result. It's not to ignore the truth of events simply because they are seen to fit with the cliché.
The reason Cameron hasn't spoken out about Gaza is fear of alienating 1. Jewish voters, 2 Jewish donors and 3. The Jewish lobby in America. Of them all I bet 2 is most important.
BECAUSE he is Jewish Ed Miliband is covered, he can't be accused of anti-Semitism, the Muslim vote is much bigger than the Jewish vote, he knows that much of the pro-Israeli lobby will support him anyway, simply because of his identity. Miliband also knows that criticising Israel right now will be very popular with his core vote, and will appeal to the millions of floating voters, appalled by the carnage in Gaza.
It's win win win, for Miliband. Of course he may actually BELIEVE what he says, despite the obvious partisan advantage he also gains.
The answer is that Conservative (and crucially, UKIP) voters are more likely to put the blame on Hamas than on Israel, according to today's poll.
But, why should he do differently? We have no dog in this fight.
Sausage making.
That was your phrase, used in relation to dead Gazan children.
Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron.
@peter_from_putney Depends what she died of? Deep vein thrombosis is not pleasant, and horrifying for the victim. It's the "Daily Fail", so I wouldn't get your knickers in a twist at this moment.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
The Jewish guy you mean? Big wallets refers to the power of the Jewish guys controlling the politicians? Ah! Gotcha.
The idea that Jews in the UK (and, even more, the USA) don't use their influence and wealth to
The fact I personally and utterly abhor Israel's massacres in Gaza is a separate issue.
So if they are just doing what everyone else is doing, which of course they are, why are you ascribing govt action to their efforts? What is their secret? Is it their "big wallets"? Earned from all that oil? Oh...
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
The logical outcome of your position is that Israel cannot be accused of abusing its power, nor can any individual of Jewish extraction be accused of abusing his or her power.
But of course that is the intention. Pro-Israel intellectuals are incredibly keen to conflate anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism, so that ANY criticism of Zionist racism and expansionism must be seen as racist and bigoted and "anti-Semitic", and therefore disallowed from polite discourse.
We see vague stabs in this direction even in the polite realms of pb.
Unfortunately for the Zionists the attempt has failed, thanks to social media and the internet rendering all opinions equally valid and uncensorable (and also revealing the racism within Israel itself).
It was a close run thing, though. Thank Yahweh for Tim Berners Lee.
So criticism of Israel extends to pointing out the " big wallets" pulling Cameron's strings?
"“The patient’s symptoms suggest that Ebola is very unlikely but as a precaution this is one of the tests being undertaken." Apologies to the Mail, but it is usually the first for a medical Armageddon
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
A lot of Jewish people in the UK are horrified by what the Israeli government is currently doing. Not least because they believe it runs contrary to Israel's long term interests.
Shutting down criticism of Israeli policy by shouting anti-Semitism is exactly the same as shutting down conversation about immigration by shouting racism.
It's amazing the number of people that do get took ill and sometime's die after departing a long-haul flight.
Of course the reason is that blood clot's form while the patient is seated during the flight and then when they get up and starting walking off the flight the clot breaks away and travels to the heart, lung or brain.
I don't take many flights, but if I did I would always be sure to have an Asprin before boarding.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
What a shallow asshole.
You realise Parliament is televised these days - he could have caught the statement later on BBC Parliament.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
What a shallow asshole.
You realise Parliament is televised these days - he could have caught the statement later on BBC Parliament.
I expect he did, but that's not really the point is it?
He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)
I'm sure he know's deep down that he made the wrong choice and maybe he's projecting his guilt on to Cameron.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
What a shallow asshole.
You realise Parliament is televised these days - he could have caught the statement later on BBC Parliament.
You do realize ed bigging up the Gaza situation and when it came to the crunch on Gaza ,ed off for his photo op with Obama,shallow,shallow,shallow.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
What a shallow asshole.
You realise Parliament is televised these days - he could have caught the statement later on BBC Parliament.
Ed Miliband has form for being a f***ing c**t and a copper-bottomed shit when it comes to trying to turn major international crises into a partisan advantage for himself
To achieve an overall majority next May, the Tories need to advance against Labour by an average of approx 1.2% per month over the intervening period. That sounds like a big ask, although not quite so big if this were to occur by means of Labour's share of the vote receding by 0.6% per month, whilst the Tories' share advanced to the same extent.
NOM still looks like the best bet against this backdrop.
If there's a swingback from 2010 LD switchers (or simply they don't vote next year) then it is feasible, but NOM is where I've been for a while
There are other imponderables, eg. Labour non-voters, Labour -> UKIP switchers, Labour -> Green switchers, etc.
FWIW (anecdotes) we were surprised to find quite a few Con->Lab switchers this weekend, which has been consistently very rare (as are Lab->Con switchers). A coincidence or a new development? Dunno. The common factors were that they switched from Labour to the Tories for the first time in 2010 (i.e. not long-term Tories), were dissatisfied with the Government, and didn't see UKIP as a good alternative in a marginal.
While Mr Farage maintains an uncharacteristic silence. Perhaps he has learnt something following his expressions of admiration of Putin a few months before.
But this should not be a party political issue, as differing opinions exist in all parties as to cause and resolution. The EU is part of the quartet trying to bring peace, and we should work with them and through them.
"He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)"
Was he wrong? The Commons can sit twenty-four hours a day from now until Christmas debating both the situation in Gaza and the Ukraine, it will change nothing. In fact I suspect the more our politicians talk about serious issues the more they reveal themselves to be powerless little wankers.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
What a shallow asshole.
Is, erm, a "shallow asshole" necessarily worse than the alternative? A "deep asshole"?
Peculiar phrase.
I suppose as I introduced the phrase I'd better clarify it.
David Cameron is shallow and an asshole. [Shallow describes Cameron, not the asshole.]
Incidentally, SeanT, is asshole or arsehole the appropriate usage here on PB?
"He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)"
Was he wrong? The Commons can sit twenty-four hours a day from now until Christmas debating both the situation in Gaza and the Ukraine, it will change nothing. In fact I suspect the more our politicians talk about serious issues the more they reveal themselves to be powerless little wankers.
Much my thoughts, though I would use other language.
Its like student politicians playing at politics, but perhaps it is that way for a reason.
We need to step back from Mid-eastern wars, including this one, and do it differently this time.
Carolas article was indeed interesting, Hamas has been weakened before this war. Hamas used to get most of its support from Assad, but he is now otherwise engaged, support from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is also history, and they need to be arms length from Iran because of the Shia/Sunni conflict. Israel used to support Hamas, as opposition to the Fatah faction. This too has ended.
So where is Hamas going to get its weapons in the future? And where is it going to get concrete to build its tunnels again?
The Concrete crisis is s real one for reconstruction. Each kilometre of tunnel requires the concrete of 350 homes. I cannot see Israel allowing it in unless its use is supervised.
I think only a UN force numbering tens of thousands could provide peace with security for all. We need to work via the UN on this one.
I see Rory McIlroy has reclaimed the world number one spot just weeks after our own TGOHF said he was better off declaring for Ireland for the Olympics as he wouldnt make the GB team!
Having seen pictures of the underground tunnels from Gaza into Israel I'm left wondering why ground penetrating radar didn't detect them from the Israeli side of the border. How deep do those things go?
@DAaronovitch: If I were utterly cynical I would suspect of @Ed_Miliband of buying off Left disaffection over immigration by going big on Gaza.
Eh? Does he mean people on the left who don't like him banging on about immigration? Or those lefties who've deserted Labour because of immigration? If it's the latter I cannot think what on earth Aaronovich is getting at. I may be wrong but I don't think Gaza is a major concern for those types.
Why is Miliband doing it? Because he thinks it's popular. 62% of the public think Israel is guilty of war crimes. He already has the overwhelming number of Muslim voters behind him.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
That is a revolting insinuation.
It says a huge amount about you, and nothing about Cameron.
"Journal axes gene research on Jews and Palestinians
Robin McKie, science editor
Sunday November 25, 200: (The Observer) A keynote research paper showing that Middle Eastern Jews and Palestinians are genetically almost identical has been pulled from a leading journal.
Academics who have already received copies of Human Immunology have been urged to rip out the offending pages and throw them away. "
He accepts he used terms in the article that laid him open to criticism. There is one reference to Jewish 'colonists' living in the Gaza strip, and another that refers to Palestinian people living in 'concentration' camps.
'Perhaps I should have used the words settlers instead of colonists, but really, what is the difference?' he said.
'And clearly, I should have said refugee, not concentration, camps,
Do you think terms like "colonists" and "concentration camps" are suitable for an academic journal?
Having seen pictures of the underground tunnels from Gaza into Israel I'm left wondering why ground penetrating radar didn't detect them from the Israeli side of the border. How deep do those things go?
a) its not the most efficient method and b) the Israelis basically didn't do enough about it up until now. They knew they existed but failed to take the necessary and, by necessity widespread, action required.
Called hoping for a quiet life. They won't get it by hoping it goes away.
Cameron is not usually slow to cause a diplomatic kerfuffle. He's not afraid to meet the Dalai Lama to the fury of China, give Pakistan a good verbal pasting when in India, go after Russia on the basis of zero evidence of their complicity in MH-17, tick the French off for who they sell warships to etc. etc. People have a right to be somewhat confused by the sudden diplomatic silence on this issue.
Except keep quiet when Gazans are being systematically massacred. Maybe there are people with big wallets somewhere on the horizon.
And even quieter when Christians are massacred in the Middle East.
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
Same could be said about miliband,shoots off to America for his number one priority,a photo op with Obama when a important commons statement on Gaza.
What a shallow asshole.
You realise Parliament is televised these days - he could have caught the statement later on BBC Parliament.
Ed Miliband has form for being a f***ing c**t and a copper-bottomed shit when it comes to trying to turn major international crises into a partisan advantage for himself
"He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)"
Was he wrong? The Commons can sit twenty-four hours a day from now until Christmas debating both the situation in Gaza and the Ukraine, it will change nothing. In fact I suspect the more our politicians talk about serious issues the more they reveal themselves to be powerless little wankers.
Much my thoughts, though I would use other language.
Its like student politicians playing at politics, but perhaps it is that way for a reason.
We need to step back from Mid-eastern wars, including this one, and do it differently this time.
Carolas article was indeed interesting, Hamas has been weakened before this war. Hamas used to get most of its support from Assad, but he is now otherwise engaged, support from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is also history, and they need to be arms length from Iran because of the Shia/Sunni conflict. Israel used to support Hamas, as opposition to the Fatah faction. This too has ended.
So where is Hamas going to get its weapons in the future? And where is it going to get concrete to build its tunnels again?
The Concrete crisis is s real one for reconstruction. Each kilometre of tunnel requires the concrete of 350 homes. I cannot see Israel allowing it in unless its use is supervised.
I think only a UN force numbering tens of thousands could provide peace with security for all. We need to work via the UN on this one.
Construction materials are one of the big restrictions - partly because of tunnels, but also because Hamas was using pre-formed pipes as mortar tubes.
So criticism of Israel extends to pointing out the " big wallets" pulling Cameron's strings?
The side in any argument which would most likely lose on a level playing field has the most incentive to use lobbying to change the odds.
So if a country had a political system where decisions were mostly driven by lobbyist money then the option most likely to win is the option that was least likely to win otherwise.
So the lobbying side doesn't need the biggest wallets only the biggest incentive.
Very interesting background - much better at explaining "why" than most of the pieces in here.
@SeanT should read it: it's down to power politics not some innate wickedness on the part of the Jewish people
I haven't read Sean T's posts. However to any sane person it is not "the Jewish people" who are committing atrocities. It is the Israeli armed forces and the Israeli politicians. I think their actions can safely be described as wicked.
"He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)"
Was he wrong? The Commons can sit twenty-four hours a day from now until Christmas debating both the situation in Gaza and the Ukraine, it will change nothing. In fact I suspect the more our politicians talk about serious issues the more they reveal themselves to be powerless little wankers.
Much my thoughts, though I would use other language.
Its like student politicians playing at politics, but perhaps it is that way for a reason.
We need to step back from Mid-eastern wars, including this one, and do it differently this time.
Carolas article was indeed interesting, Hamas has been weakened before this war. Hamas used to get most of its support from Assad, but he is now otherwise engaged, support from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is also history, and they need to be arms length from Iran because of the Shia/Sunni conflict. Israel used to support Hamas, as opposition to the Fatah faction. This too has ended.
So where is Hamas going to get its weapons in the future? And where is it going to get concrete to build its tunnels again?
The Concrete crisis is s real one for reconstruction. Each kilometre of tunnel requires the concrete of 350 homes. I cannot see Israel allowing it in unless its use is supervised.
I think only a UN force numbering tens of thousands could provide peace with security for all. We need to work via the UN on this one.
Construction materials are one of the big restrictions - partly because of tunnels, but also because Hamas was using pre-formed pipes as mortar tubes.
There is so much reconstruction needed in Gaza, but how can Israel prevent Hamas misusing any Cement etc let in? An interesting article here in Businesweek:
Comments
"As for hearing Cameron's views, it's not about him expressing 'a view'; it's about him taking a stand ..."
Take a stand? Do you mean issuing a strongly worded press release? Maybe even making a speech. What else can he do and who would care what he said? I suppose the DfID can double the amount it gives to its women in war zones fund or whatever they call it, but I don't think that will make any difference. Maybe we could send Justine Greening to Gaza, a pointless gesture to be sure but she might not come back which would be a plus.
Robin McKie, science editor
Sunday November 25, 200: (The Observer) A keynote research paper showing that Middle Eastern Jews and Palestinians are genetically almost identical has been pulled from a leading journal.
Academics who have already received copies of Human Immunology have been urged to rip out the offending pages and throw them away. "
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4706.htm
Kylie Minogue. Thank. God. #closingceremony
But, why should he do differently? We have no dog in this fight.
Because, following the Guardian, surely you are not perpetuating the racial/religious (!) stereotype of the Jews controlling the world, by virtue of producing the Die Hard movie series, among other things?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-ed-miliband-warned-of-ukip-threat-to-labour-majority-9645347.html
I wrote a PB thread whilst watching in the cinema.
Er, no. Just that it is interesting to see some familiar tropes emerge from perfectly justified criticism of Israel.
That sounds like a big ask, although not quite so big if this were to occur by means of Labour's share of the vote receding by 0.6% per month, whilst the Tories' share advanced to the same extent.
NOM still looks like the best bet against this backdrop.
*Innocent face*
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-ed-miliband-warned-of-ukip-threat-to-labour-majority-9645347.html
In other news ed is an opportunistic disgrace of a wannabe pm.
Shameless really..... and he has form
https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/peter-oborne-james-jones/pro-israel-lobby-in-britain-full-text
Sean,dont you think Baroness Warsi and Sajid Javid in the cabinet and ear of Cameron as more influence of thinking,if they thought differently,maybe resignation,that would really damage Cameron.
Depends what she died of? Deep vein thrombosis is not pleasant, and horrifying for the victim.
It's the "Daily Fail", so I wouldn't get your knickers in a twist at this moment.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ebola-terror-gatwick-passenger-collapses-3977051
That sounds like a classic heart attack or embolism, possibly caused by DVT or perhaps not.
The sweating and vomiting point towards as a heart attack as well, IMO.
Certainly doesn't sound like Ebola, anyway.
Apologies to the Mail, but it is usually the first for a medical Armageddon
Cameron really is a shallow asshole.
http://t.co/2xTL3PPYf6
http://t.co/RdssgeDFus
Woman passenger who died after after a flight from west Africa to Gatwick tested negative for Ebola, Department of Health says
Shutting down criticism of Israeli policy by shouting anti-Semitism is exactly the same as shutting down conversation about immigration by shouting racism.
Of course the reason is that blood clot's form while the patient is seated during the flight and then when they get up and starting walking off the flight the clot breaks away and travels to the heart, lung or brain.
I don't take many flights, but if I did I would always be sure to have an Asprin before boarding.
What a shallow asshole.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n16/nathan-thrall/hamass-chances
He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)
I'm sure he know's deep down that he made the wrong choice and maybe he's projecting his guilt on to Cameron.
Wouldn't be surprised...
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/08/29/miliband-labour_n_3834361.html
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5594357
While Mr Farage maintains an uncharacteristic silence. Perhaps he has learnt something following his expressions of admiration of Putin a few months before.
But this should not be a party political issue, as differing opinions exist in all parties as to cause and resolution. The EU is part of the quartet trying to bring peace, and we should work with them and through them.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/from-plymouth-to-grimsby--the-seats-labour-risks-losing-9645349.html?origin=internalSearch
Alex Salmond urged to stay sober and statesmanlike for independence debate
Balance and restraint advised by SNP insiders for head-to-head with Alistair Darling to convinced undecided referendum voters
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/03/salmond-tv-debate-scottish-independence-referendum-darling
"He thought getting his photo taken with Obama was more important than being in Parliament to discuss Gaza (and Ukraine)"
Was he wrong? The Commons can sit twenty-four hours a day from now until Christmas debating both the situation in Gaza and the Ukraine, it will change nothing. In fact I suspect the more our politicians talk about serious issues the more they reveal themselves to be powerless little wankers.
He, he! UKIP are grinning.
David Cameron is shallow and an asshole. [Shallow describes Cameron, not the asshole.]
Incidentally, SeanT, is asshole or arsehole the appropriate usage here on PB?
Its like student politicians playing at politics, but perhaps it is that way for a reason.
We need to step back from Mid-eastern wars, including this one, and do it differently this time.
Carolas article was indeed interesting, Hamas has been weakened before this war. Hamas used to get most of its support from Assad, but he is now otherwise engaged, support from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is also history, and they need to be arms length from Iran because of the Shia/Sunni conflict. Israel used to support Hamas, as opposition to the Fatah faction. This too has ended.
So where is Hamas going to get its weapons in the future? And where is it going to get concrete to build its tunnels again?
The Concrete crisis is s real one for reconstruction. Each kilometre of tunnel requires the concrete of 350 homes. I cannot see Israel allowing it in unless its use is supervised.
I think only a UN force numbering tens of thousands could provide peace with security for all. We need to work via the UN on this one.
Eh? Does he mean people on the left who don't like him banging on about immigration? Or those lefties who've deserted Labour because of immigration? If it's the latter I cannot think what on earth Aaronovich is getting at. I may be wrong but I don't think Gaza is a major concern for those types.
Why is Miliband doing it? Because he thinks it's popular. 62% of the public think Israel is guilty of war crimes. He already has the overwhelming number of Muslim voters behind him.
It says a huge amount about you, and nothing about Cameron.
He accepts he used terms in the article that laid him open to criticism. There is one reference to Jewish 'colonists' living in the Gaza strip, and another that refers to Palestinian people living in 'concentration' camps.
'Perhaps I should have used the words settlers instead of colonists, but really, what is the difference?' he said.
'And clearly, I should have said refugee, not concentration, camps,
Do you think terms like "colonists" and "concentration camps" are suitable for an academic journal?
Called hoping for a quiet life. They won't get it by hoping it goes away.
@SeanT should read it: it's down to power politics not some innate wickedness on the part of the Jewish people
So if a country had a political system where decisions were mostly driven by lobbyist money then the option most likely to win is the option that was least likely to win otherwise.
So the lobbying side doesn't need the biggest wallets only the biggest incentive.
Like with windmills or open borders.
Freddie Woodward @woodwardf03 · Jul 31
Since Freddie Woodward (the diver) was on TV yesterday, I'v had 34 new Instagram followers..
you silly, hormonal 16 year olds..
#CWG2014
http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-23/next-gaza-disaster-after-war-with-israel-no-cement-for-rebuilding
Hamas needs to be de-militiarised before any reconstruction can happen, or these events are just going to be repeated in some endless cycle.
Detecting tunnelling by acoustic methods is not easy in a place where so much other activity is going on with farming and construction.
Realistically the only way Gazans can be safe would be if a third party took over the administration, with a UN mandate.