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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Full round up of this week’s local by-elections with news of 2 LAB gains
Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence)
Result: Labour 783 (43%), UKIP 496 (27%), Conservatives 404 (22%), BNP 95 (5%), British Democrats 58 (3%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 287 (16%)
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I was in two minds about the Diplomacy game, but Rains of Castamere came on my playlist, which was quite clearly a sign I should play.
LAB - 42.6% (-4.3)
UKIP - 27.0% (+27.0)
CON - 22.0% (-31.0)
BNP - 5.2% (+5.2)
BDEM - 3.2% (+3.2)
Status Update
By Keep the Falklands British
Don't cry for me Defaultina.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-01/le-pen-leads-in-1st-round-french-voting-intentions-poll.html
Mr. Pubgoer, the truth is you never pay debts?
New rules which prevent players and coaches from betting on any worldwide footballing activity will help in the fight against match-fixing, says Football Association general secretary Alex Horne.
[...]
The FA's betting rule change applies to the top eight tiers of English football
Players, managers, club employees and match officials are prohibited from betting on any football matter worldwide
Bets on results, goalscorers, in-game play, player transfers, manager changes or promotions and relegations are banned.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28599142
PB 2014 MkIV is now just waiting for two players. The current list is:
TheScreamingEagles
Pulpstar
HurstLlama
austinjc
Temujin (aka Morris Dancer - don't ask)
I have to say that the chance to engage in diplomacy with Mr Eagles had me reaching for the sign-up button even though this is to be a friendly game in which everyone will play nicely (what do you mean fat chance).
So just two spaces left.
Where?
PlayDiplomacy.Com
Game?
PB 2014 MkIV
Password?
catsandkittens
Cost?
No money but time. How much time? Well, how much do you like to negotiate? An hour a day is more than enough, but if you don't think you can cope with that best not play.
Would never win a run off with Sarko or Hollandaise though, surely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28609351
f(x)=2x+1 walks into a bar and asks for a drink.
The barman says "I'm sorry, we don't cater for functions."
I don't want to come over all Tap, but...
There is a lot more to Simon Walsh's case than most people know (I know him well - not a friend, but definitely a friendly acquaintance).
He was a very effective chairman of the City of London Police Authority. He made life difficult for them - he had made his career as a barrister working for the police so he knew many of their little tricks.
Now he is no longer an Alderman, no longer chairman, has been forced to sell his house, and is virtually bankrupt with his reputation smeared all over town. Who won?
Some people on the previous thread seemed to suggest my views on selling weapons to mass murderers would be different if I was a BAE employee. While I don't want to go into details for privacy reasons, I have made moral stands against working for certain clients in my career on similar grounds. Can anyone really claim to be a moral person if their morals give way when it comes to personal loss?
The "livelihoods" argument is a foolish one. The same logic could suggest we shouldn't criminalise selling drugs to children, because people have livelihoods doing such things.
re : Diplomacy
Many thanks for the kind invitation, but I was never very good at Diplomacy - I used to play against myself as a kid and lose...
(but more seriously, I never know what time zone I'm going to be in, so would only hold things up for you all)
so the new British class declared as follow
Tim Aker: Assistant to an MEP (1,001-5,000), Campaign Director (1,001-5,000), Head of Policy (1,001-5,000)
Lucy Anderson: Head of Resource Management, National Union of Teachers (5,000-10,000)
Jonathan Arnott: General Secretary of UKIP (1,001-5,000), part-time teacher (1,001-5,000), part-time teacher (500-1,000)
Janice Atkinson: Global PR Director at Go Trade Live (500-1,000)
Amjad Bashir: self-employed (500-1,000)
Louise Bours: student UCBC (0)
Paul Brannen: Christian Aid (1,000-5,000)
James Carver: Proprietor of James Carver Umbrellas (1,001-5,000), Political Assistant to William Dartmouth MEP (1,001-5,000)
David Cobourn: Air freight Forwarding (500-1,000)
Jane Collins: Regional constituency manager for Godfrey Bloom MEP (1,000-5,000)
Richard Corbett: Member of the Cabinet of President Van Rompuy (10,000+)
Seb Dance: Government Relations Adviser ActionAid UK (1,001-5,000)
Anneliese Dodds: Senior lecturer at Aston University (1,001-5,000)
Ian Duncan: Parliamentary Official (1,001-5,000)
Bill Etheridge: Showroom Manager (500-1,000)
Raymond Finch: Office Managare (5,001-10,000), County Cllr (1,001-5,000)
Nathan Gill: MEP assistant (1,001-5,000)
Neena Gill: Vice President Corporate Affairs, Europe and Asia and Pacific (10,000+), Management Consultant, NGA
Associates (1,001-5,000)
Theresa Griffin: Regional organiser for the trade union UNISON (5,001-10,000)
Mike Hookem: researcher Godfry Bloom MEP (1,001-5,000)
Diane James: Non-executive director of ProVen VCT (500-1,000), HFMA Commercial advisor (500-1,000), Waverley Borough Council - Elected
Councillor (average of 400 Euros per month)
Afzal Khan: Councillor (1,001-5,000), Solicitor (500-1,000)
Jude Kirton-Darling: Confederal Secretary of European Trade Union Confederation (5,001-10,000), Bureau Member of Quaker Council for
European Affairs (less than 500)
Andrew Lewer: Local government (1,001-5,000)
Clare Moody: Trade Union Officer (1,001-5,000)
Patrick O'Flynn: Director of Communications for UKIP (5,001-10,000), Chief Political Commentator Daily Express (5,001-10,000)
Margot Parker: Volunteer for UK Independence Party (0)
Julia Reid: Accredited parliamentary assistant (1,001-5,000)
Molly Scott Cato: Professor (10,000+) * in another section she declares 1,001-5,000 as Professor
Jane Seymour: Company Secretary and Co Shareholder (less than 500)
Sion Simon: Writer (1,001-5,000), Management consultant (1,001-5,000)
Julie Ward: Company Director (self-employed) of Jack Drum Arts (1,001-5,000)
Steven Woolfe: Lawyer (10,000+), Consultant (1,001-5,000), Investor (5,001-10,000)
The whole increase in the power of government to monitor all our personal lives is a recipe for abuse and exploitation. English and Scots law developed over centuries certain principles for protecting the individual, yet both the Blair and Cameron governments have pissed all over them. And anyone raising alarm over this is dismissed as hysterical (see some of Nick Palmer's posts to me). We live in troubling times.
Delator may become a revived occupation (Roman denouncers, who perhaps most famously whispered supposed treason to Sejanus and Tiberius).
Most people in the world have morals. The fact that they are sometimes not yours does not make them immoral.
It wasn't just me that had that thought then. Good.
Or is that them there, in disguise on 3.2% ?
Its vital for the FN and the PS to get rid of Sarkozy and the UMP for good, since its the only way they stay or acquire power.
Result: Labour 783 (43%), UKIP 496 (27%), Conservatives 404 (22%), BNP 95 (5%), British Democrats 58 (3%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 287 (16%)
Vote Kipper get Ed.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/ed-miliband-live-on-lbc-94619
Call Ed Miliband for help.
Jimmy cleared on all counts - not guilty - just like Rebecca Brookes.
That is an absurdly skewed comparison. The balance of morals of working for a company that just happens to sell something to Saudi Arabia are far more complex.
Do you think that if Cameron had called for a vote they would have blocked it, presumably on the grounds that the electorate are way too dim to be allowed to have a say? And if so do you think the electorate would have forgiven them in May 2015?
The fact that Dave put this back until 2017 instead of forcing the hand of the traitors tells you all you need to know where he stands on it.
Vote UKIP get UKIP. Eventually.
It's utter bullsh1t, and the reality will be a new momentum in the other direction, but that is what they will say & there is a sizeable chunk of the electorate that will think that sounds reasonable.
For "OUT" to have a chance of winning you need to prove that the EU is intransigent and impervious to reform.
Of course, there is no certainty that you will win, and there is the chance that Cameron may come back with some marginal concessions and claim a great triumph meaning we should vote in (I personally don't believe this because it would split his party down the middle).
Essentially you need to make sure that the "reasonable voter" who is on the fence whether the benefits of the EU outweigh the costs - such as @RichardNabavi or myself - vote (regretfully) to leave the EU.
Why would RBS exit from a leading market position in a European market which, although small and relatively mature, is profitable and sustainable?
(For the avoidance of doubt: I mean Scotland, not England!)
We only have to look at how the Nasty Nat approach has utterly failed in the Sindy ref campaign to see that angry rants from loons and fruitcakes do not convince the required % people to switch sides.
The July average has been released today:
Con 34 (+1)
Lab 37 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-2)
Lab leads for each month from Jan to July 2014:
6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3
Link (page 2):
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n2debju9jj/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-310714.pdf
As a general rule what I call 'radical' Nationalism (ie a demand for autonomy, identity, language, a state) is often based on a set of wholly unattractive beliefs and suppositions. Greed, jealousy, racism, fear and bullying to name a few. Altruistic outpourings from these undesirables are a comfort blanket to disguise the base and unpleasant views driving the Nationalism they espouse with venom. It brings out the worst on both sides and causes long term friction and ill feeling.
Were the 'Out' supporters to adopt the methods and attitudes of the angry Radical Nationalists, then I agree, they would be running fast to defeat.
It is open to all posters and lurkers to form opinions of their own as to who and what fall into my personal idea of Radical Nationalists. It is a space and theory within my mind, which others may or may not grasp and view in the same way. I don't mean to insult or upset any particular person or group of people.
Platitudes aplenty so far - killing children is wrong..
"Deborah Hopkins, who called Coalition "murdering b------s", will be allowed to stand for Parliament [for Labour] in 2015"
"In one message, she described employees at the Department for Work and Pensions as "evil" and suggested they seek "population control by starvation."
In another, she claimed Conservative Party objectives included "killing the sick, starving the disabled, evicting the poor, destroying the hopes of children, stealing billions from the public.""
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11006057/Labour-candidate-who-called-Tories-murdering-b-s-reinstated.html
Outrageous.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evelyn_Beatrice_Hall
Randall Monroe
http://xkcd.com/1357/
If the cap fits...
They also had a pianist overnight who would play requests. More to the point if he didn't know the song he would sometimes suggest wonderfully inappropriate substitutions.
Caller Matt says his entire family were Labour supporters but have now switched to Ukip. When are Labour going to start representing the working man again?
Farage is the new Thatcher
Europe is brilliant
That's the Kippers back on-side then
My point, though, is that RBS Group will redomicile to London - and probably be rebranded NatWest at some point - but that it would retain its Scottish (and LevFin) practice under the RBS name.
You, my friend, are a fool. Well-intentioned, may be, but a fool. Putin is one of the biggest threats to world peace around at the moment.
There is a bank in the UK that does business in the UK in Sterling backed the Bank of England. Currently it's headquarters are in Scotland.
A bank of that size doing business in Sterling in the fUK will need to be headquartered in the fUK
There would be new business opportunities in Scotland if they ever pick a realistic currency, but that will not be the same business as the existing RBS
In general, it seems indefensible to claim that a minority or, more rarely, majority asserting their identity are generally guilty of being greedy, jealous, racist, fearful, bullying, base, unpleasant, and venomous, whereas defenders of the current identity are not, at least not explicitly. It's just a classic case of blaming the weak for their current position.
RBS Group includes multiple brands including Citizens, Ulster, First Active (believe this is being wound down), NatWest and RBS. It also includes brands such as Coutts, Drummonds, Child's, Adams, etc. I've excluded Shawbrook because they are an investment not a core group brand.
Some of these (e.g. Ulster, NatWest and RBS) share a common IT system (Coutts does as well, although they desperately try to pretend they don't). But the customer facing side and the target client base is different, as is the positioning in the market. For example RBS in Scotland and NatWest in England have similar positions (high street bank of choice) while RBS is England is much more targeted at wealthier personal clients. Coutts aims for footballers, Adams for the Edinburgh wealthy, Child's lawyers and Drummonds has slightly lost its way.
In the event that there is independence, NatWest Group will become the parent company, domiciled in London. RBS will be retained as a separate business unit focused on Scotland. There is an argument that RBS will also be retained as the brand for NatWest's LevFin practice as they have a very good track record in this segment of the market - much better than County NatWest, for instance.
edit: According to Wiki, RBS has 700 branches, mainly in Scotland, NatWest 1,600 and Ulster Bank 235 (145 RoI, 90 NI)
http://www.bigstory.ap.org/article/un-chief-blames-hamas-breaking-cease-fire
But what will happen is that the group will be registered in England, the tax base will be in England and more of the higher value business will be dealt with south of the border with the consequential loss of head office and better paid jobs north of the border, also impacting on the tax base. Many of the jobs in the Gyle would drift south where the customers actually are.
Within the UK being "Scottish" has generally been an asset from a marketing point of view with overtones of prudence etc. Whether these are deserved is really not the point. What is the point is that this is still within the context of an integrated and regulated UK market.
If Scotland has to set up its own regulators for that part of the business still done in Scotland compliance with this will be an additional cost (as RBS has pointed out) and I fear it would be a marketing weakness since UK regulation (quite bizarrely given the last 7 years) has a strong international reputation giving passports to those who want to trade internationally.
Getting and obtaining staff of the requisite standard to build a credible regulatory system would be very difficult and expensive for Scotland.
All of this is one simple example of the price one would pay from withdrawing from an integrated market of 65m to a home market of 5.3m. Scottish business would no doubt adapt and survive in due course but to pretend that there would not be significant business consequences is just dishonest. When Czechoslovakia broke up trade between the former partners collapsed. Trade is lower than it should be between the US and southern Canada. Borders inhibit trade. It is a fact of life.