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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s been no Glasgow games boost yet for IndyRef YES on Betfair – now rated by punters as a 14.2% chance
The pre-Commonwealth games expectations that the Glasgow events would provide a boost for independence campaigners has yet to be materialised if Betfair punters are anything to go by. Even though Scottish athletes are having their best games ever punters appear unmoved.
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I suppose it will come to all of us, if we're lucky enough.
However, as body that said that it would be 60/40 and perhaps 65/35.
The polls are wrong, there's only one poll that matters, our canvassing results are much better, tge betting markets are wrong, bettors don't understand the electorate, the media is against us, that sort of thing.
The most interesting thing, Romney lost by less than 4%
Australia’s carbon tax has been repealed, leaving the country with no official policy to achieve the minimum 5% greenhouse emissions reduction target it has signed up to in international agreements. The Liberal-led government said households will be better off by an average $550 following the move.
The tax was $25.40 a tonne and the repeal will cost the budget around $7bn over the next four years as around 350 businesses, mainly electricity generators and big manufacturers, no longer have to pay the tax.
The government argued the carbon pricing scheme had been ineffective, although national emissions fell by 0.8% in the first calendar year of its operation, the largest fall in 24 years of records.
Since the tax began, emissions from the east coast electricity market have fallen 11%, but emissions from other sources – especially coal and gas -have increased.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s special powers are to monitor and enforce only electricity and gas price reductions. Electricity bills will rise, but by an estimated 9% less than they otherwise would. Gas bills will rise by an estimated 7% less than they would have with the tax still in place.
The government says it will now achieve the target of a 5% reduction in Australian emissions (compared with 2000 levels by 2020) through its Direct Action policy, which will offer $2.5bn in competitive grants over the next four years to companies and organisations voluntarily reducing emissions. The policy is voluntary and puts no overall cap on emissions.
http://www.hazardexonthenet.net/article/79127/Australia-scraps-carbon-tax.aspx?emailaddress=pgatward@hazres.com&utm_source=emailmarketing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20140730nl&utm_content=2014-07-30_0825
FPT: Mr. G, we only find out which side are fibbing if Yes wins.
Edited extra bit: to merge last night and this morning's thread, Basil II acknowledged his first (and last real) set back by crying in a church.
Mind you, he did end up crushing his enemies in battle and treating the prisoners in such a manner that when they got home their leader died from shock.
FPT 2: Mr. Charles, there *was* another emperor, Basil's brother Constantine. He was awful, though, and the lack of succession planning is a serious black mark against his name.
However, the overrated Marcus Aurelius was worse in allowing Commodus to become emperor, and nobody criticises him.
MalcolmG
I agree with you wholeheartedly that politiicans are largely a bunch of lying, cheating, untrustworthy scumbags - to varying degrees. But what I also don't doubt is that they want to get elected. Or that the public losses / private gains element of banking is wildly unpopular.
So....there is no doubt going to be a political / electoral driver to the currency endgame negotiations. The party that comes to rUK electorate / taxpayer saying 'I think it would be great for you to cover the risks of Scottish bank failure' is a brave one (in the Sir Humphey sense). There is no doubt that the moment a YES vote were announced there would develop a them vs us mindset to the negotiations. It would be hugely in Scotland's interest to share a currency. It would be hugely not in rUK's interest to do so. Any feasible arrangement involving a shared currency would then necessarily involve a Westminster veto on Scottish tax and spending decisions - so not really 'indpendence' after all.
I know this is a dearly held wish of the YES side - but the currency issue is the BIG ONE that is not sorted. Sometimes you just need to believe what politicians say. All the financial reps of the major parties, the BoE, the banks, the financial services industry and regulators have said a shared currency ain't gonna happen. Because it can't. I believe them. And as a rUK voter I'd vote accordingly too.
And surely 8.0 for 50-55% yes is a better option than overall yes at 5.5; though I am not inclined to throw good Sterling pounds away on this.
Patrick said:
MalcolmG
I agree with you wholeheartedly that politiicans are largely a bunch of lying, cheating, untrustworthy scumbags - to varying degrees. But what I also don't doubt is that they want to get elected. Or that the public losses / private gains element of banking is wildly unpopular. So....there is no doubt going to be a political / electoral driver to the currency endgame. The party that comes to rUK electorate / taxpayer saying 'I think it would be good for you to cover the risks of Scottish bank failure' is a brave one (in the Sir Humphey sense). There is no doubt that the moment a YES vote was announced that there would develop a them vs us mindset to the negotiations. It would be hugely in Scotland's interest to share a currency. It would be hugely not in rUK's interest to do so. Any feasible arrangement involving a shared currency would then necessarily involve a Westminster veto on Scottish tax and spending decisions - so not really 'indpendence' after all.
They will get elected in 2015 and park the issue till next time , be sure of it. It will not involve any Westminster veto either, it will mean rules that both agree to on spending limits , not exactly a bad thing. All other powers that are currently with Westminster will be available so it is real independence after all. Idiot takes voodoo poll of troughers and surprise surprise , what was the result.
Oh, that's not going to cheer you up is it
It is obvious that Scottish independence would be a major blow to one of our largest industries and major employers. Being a part of a much larger economic unit has allowed our financial services to grow multiple times beyond what would be sustainable in an independent country.
But if you were trying your absolute hardest to maximise that damage you would choose a situation where we continued to use Sterling without a lender of last resort or the cover of London based financial regulation. I simply do not see how any financial service provider bigger than a local savings bank could survive in such a scenario.
A Scottish pound tied, for at least for a preliminary period, to sterling would make much more sense. Our financial services industry would still need to shrink by about 80% but the job implications of this would be in the thousands rather than the tens of thousands as the major banks, Standard Life, Scottish Widows and some others took their registration (and of course their tax base) south but much of their back office remained and in all likelihood some smaller players establishing "offshore" took their place.
The truth is that the SNP decided that their policy was to try to sell Independence as not very different at all and keeping the currency was a key plank of that. So far as can be ascertained the economic implications of the policy were not considered at all.
Last night we even had the truly bizarre position of Pete Wishart MP and several other SNP worthies explaining how they were voting yes but how they treasured their Britishness which would not be affected!
It's all about supporting one's "side" and criticising the other "sides". Political parties, football teams - in truth, there's not a lot of difference.
One of England's finest cricketers and almost certainly Essex' best to date.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Didn't the Labour Government rake off 40% via income taxes then?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-28547592
On Thursday I hope to join her in Carnoustie. If that also shows a no trend I may start to get a little more confident.
They will get elected in 2015 and park the issue till next time , be sure of it. It will not involve any Westminster veto either, it will mean rules that both agree to on spending limits , not exactly a bad thing. All other powers that are currently with Westminster will be available so it is real independence after all.
Incoherent guff. A YES means they need to start negotiating terms immediately in order to enable an act of parliament to be passed. It cannot be 'parked'. You seem to be suggesting that following a YES the actual independence of Scotland could wait a few years! I am sure this is impossible.
It looks very much like we're headed for a hung parliament in 2015. (or a Tory majority if Scottish MPs go). It is naive in the extreme to assume that rUK politicians will negotiate for the greater good of Scotland. They'll do whatever they think will help them get re-elected in the rUK. The currency problem is the huge pulsating gorilla in the corner of the YES campaign's agenda. It's NOT sorted. Hence the 14.2%, 60 NO / 40 YES picture of today.
Most on here would say the general polling is consistent with a Labour lead of 3%.
It's an interesting thing that when activists start to ignore polling.
http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/sacked-paterson-still-pushing-fracking.html
"Labour has resurrected plans for a 15 per cent “death tax” to pay for people’s care in old age.
Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, said he wants Labour to “embrace” a system where social care is funded by imposing a tax on estates when people die."
So, would this be a 15% across the board (ie no lower limit) tax in addition to IHT?
Cheers for the answer, I missed that announcement (obviously).
I still haven't changed my longstanding opinion that this IndyRef is impossible to call. I have no idea if Scotland will win or if David Cameron will win. Therefore ALL my IndyRef bets are trading bets. I will get out Before 18/9.
Really? As far as I can see it's mainly dumb, metropolitan commentators pushing that line, the types whose insights start & stop with Braveheart, Bannockburn & deep fried Mars bars.
From an Indy point of view the priority was to make sure the Games weren't a f*ck up which, touch wood, seems to have been achieved. A bit of confidence and good cheer in the populace inspired by a successful event entirely planned in and paid for by Scotland is just a bonus.
So 55% top rate.
The loons are in full barking mode now. The rocks will be getting turned over big style shortly, unleash the frothers.
Not David Cameron.
Also, there are some (who currently make a majority/plurality) who will say Scotland wins if no wins.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/commonwealth-games/cwg-news/usain-bolt-says-citys-commonwealth-games-are-a-bit-s.1406705386
Usain Bolt says city's Commonwealth Games are "a bit s***"
The world's fastest man might want to make a speedy exit out of Glasgow after allegedly making remarks about the city's Commonwealth Games."
Two can play at that game.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/07/28/will-the-commonwealth-games-boost-the-yes-indyref-vote/
It doesn't stop the partisans gloating or dismissing the poll as appropriate.
As for "ignoring the polling", well, yes, most serious political analysts do ignore the daily noise of YouGov and even the bi-weekly meanderings of Ashcroft and Populus. Even the monthly ICM isn't without its flaws as I've said on here many times.
Even a "national" labour lead of 3-4 means nothing, in London Labour is apparently 10% ahead so UNS on national polling numbers is as good a system as backing every horse coming out of stall 1 at Goodwood this afternoon.
18 Jan - 62/38
18 Feb - 64/36
18 Mar - 60/40
17 Apr - 59/41
20 May - 61/39
18 Jun - 61/39
01 Jul - 62/38
15 Jul - 63/37
29 Jul - 63/37
We have even had confirmation from Financier that MP's lackeys at Westminster know it is certain to be at least 60% NO.
From April 2015 it plans to limit the prices that can be charged by Britain's six distribution companies, which carry power to homes and businesses.
The curbs will affect 29 million English, Scottish and Welsh customers.
Ofgem's plans will also see the distribution companies spend £17bn to upgrade their networks.
The distribution element makes up about 8% of a typical electricity bill and is the only part directly controlled by Ofgem.
"Today's announcement is all part of Ofgem's consistent drive to get the best deal for consumers, while maintaining a stable regulatory regime which attracts investment as cheaply as possible," said Dermot Nolan, the regulator's chief executive.
Five out of the six network companies - UK Power Networks, Northern Power Grid, SP Energy Networks, SSE Power Distribution and Electricity North West - were ordered to cut their prices.
Only one, Western Power Distribution, had its pricing and investment plans approved by Ofgem.
The new prices will apply for eight years, from April 2015 until 2023.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28559772
I've always said, look at the general trend of polling.
In Westminster VI Polls, Labour will be the largest party/have a majority on current polling and have bet accordingly, but that's a different position from two years ago, when Labour had double digit leads.
On the Indyref all the polls show No winning if the referendum was this Thursday, but the trend generally has been a narrowing of No's lead over the last two years.
I suspect time will run out for Yes this time to overhaul that lead.
If the Westminster polls show a tightening, and if the only obstacle to a Tory majority is those 58 MPs, you can expect Dave to try and remove the franchise from the Scots.
He'd be nuts not too
Oh, and electricity could be supplied free, as well...
As Shadsy points out, the debate between Salmond and Darling is shortly after the games, if Salmond as expected trounces Darling, then those two things can give momentum to Yes to overhaul no's lead.
It doesn't obviate my point about dumb, metropolitan commentators who are obsessed with game changers (The Olympics! Bannockburn! Barroso! No currency union! J.K.Rowling!). The Scottish electorate have been set loose, and no one can say with absolute confidence that they know what they're thinking, and how long and winding a journey they'll take to the ballot box.
His immigration 'crackdown' is collapsing like a deck chair in a gale in all the tory press, and his soviet plans for the taxman to seize money from whoever they want without a court order are being seen for what they are - the tip of a giant iceberg.
Other than that its going really well..
Bolt is past his best but his achievement in winning the 100 and 200 double twice will live on for a very long time. He raised sprinting and the profile of athletics to a whole new level. And he is a Man U fan so he can't be all bad!
I'm also pro-Scottish independence (by virtue of the slightly circuitous argument that everything the BT folk say about Scotland will be recycled by the Europhiles, and I'm a BOO). However, BT will win, no matter how much Mr G. huffs and puffs.
Honestly, it's a miracle I stay so sunny and cheerful, given almost nothing I want is going to happen anytime soon.
We shall see soon.
It sounds like the kind of gourmet meal you would order in a top restaurant.
But work at the Welsh government and grilled Welsh pork loin steak with leek and black pudding mash would set you back just £2.95.
Figures show a 61% rise in subsidised meals for ministers and staff in their canteens over the last three years to £422,800 in 2013/14.
A Welsh government spokesman said the subsidy had risen to cover food at 10 sites instead of five before 2012.
Meals on offer at Cathays Park headquarters and other offices included steamed supreme of Wye salmon with gratin of leeks and crispy bacon wafer for £3.50, while breaded pork escalope - served with seasonal cabbage and buttery mashed potato - was priced at £2.95.
The catering is supplied to 5,800 staff including offices in Caernarfon, Aberystwyth and Swansea.
Figures obtained by the Welsh Conservatives showed the subsidy cost taxpayers £1.37m in the past four years.
Shadow finance minister Nick Ramsay AM said: "At a time when many hardworking people have had their pay frozen, a 61% hike in meal subsidies for Carwyn Jones, other Welsh Labour ministers and staff will stick in the throat."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-28547274
This is a far higher standard of food than you will find at any Welsh hospital, where budgets, beds and facilities are being cut.
The standard of play won't generally be at Olympic level but are a few exceptions. The Kenyans in the middle distance running for example. And I'm sure the rugby sevens will be world standard with all the best teams competing.
Some years the World Athletics Championships don't measure up to the Olympics.
As far as Westminster is concerned, we has the London poll on Monday with the split 45-35-8-8. Now those numbers mask what is really going on and fortunately we have the London local election data as a backup.
The LDs currently have seven seats in London - on the straight line UNS figures you'd expect them to be wiped out but looking at the local election data tells a different story. Even a prominent Carshalton Tory who posts on here has conceded that Tom Brake will survive and I suspect Paul Burstow will as well and with Simon Hughes and Vince Cable it's a case of how strong the personal vote might or might not be.
The Conservatives could lose ten seats if Labour's strong performance in the local contests is mirrored next May.
He reportedly said the Commonwealth Games were "a bit s***" before leaving the site to "do some business."
He says that the "most complete" account of waiting times is time to departure rather than first assessment.
On that basis median waits are up from 122 minutes to 128
Good article by Farage on the phony immigration crackdown. Great points about the cost of in work benefits, infrastructure and housing our unwanted guests from the rest of the world impose on us.
It would be good to have a decisive result rather than a 49/51 that will cause a lot of rancour. I think the turnout estimation may be a bit high though.
I am not sure what more can be said that would shift votes. It seems that every issue has been thrashed to death, resurrected, then thrashed again ad nauseum.
Blake - Hamstring (Out)
Nesta Carter - ?
Michael Frater - ?
So far as I can tell the fact Jamaica chose Nickel Ashmeade & Kemar Bailey-Cole over Nesta Carter tells me that basically they treat the event as a junior/blooding event - unless his form has dipped significantly or he has an injury at the moment. Michael Frater although in the 4 x 100m relay team was not in the 2013 World Athletic Champs final.
Asafa Powell is of course on a drugs ban. I think Dwayne Chambers is banned for England though he'd have not have gone under 10.00.
And what happened to James Dasaolu ?!
The sort-of city-state is, of course, immensely densely populated.
I'm surprised the outbreak isn't getting more coverage given it's up to 90% mortality rate and high degree of infectiousness, particularly compared with SARS and the like, which was wildly overblown.
Early betting thought on Monza is Williams to top score. The track's basically a collection of straight lines, and the Williams has the highest top speed. That said, I've made the bet twice before and neither time came off. I'll wait and see how things look, but it's something I'm thinking of.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100281820/the-curse-of-ebola/