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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Austria, Serbia and George W Bush
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Austria, Serbia and George W Bush
Sepia-toned silent images of black-coated or feather-hatted diplomats lend a reassuring distance to the events that plunged the world into war a hundred years ago this week. It looks like a world long since vanished and in one sense, it is. However, like much of that story, it is an illusion; all the more dangerous for the complacency that false reassurance breeds.
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Back off to bask in the late evening sun
Where are you?
Let me know if you plan to swing through Laguna at some point.
I'll be doing a swing through the mid west in late August, but don't make it up to Bay area until early January
69oF in Sag Harbor
79oF in Laguna
:-)
FWIW, I have a day trip to NYC in mid August, which is brutal at that time of year.
"Terrorism" is a particularly slippery word, and it is accordingly loved by authoritarian governments throughout the world. The fact is that the British government has been sponsoring terrorism (within the meaning of s. 1 of the Terrorism Act 2000) in Syria, and in several other foreign jurisdictions. This article appears to imply that Mr al-Assad would have the right to promote régime change in London as a result. If history teaches us anything, it is that language should be used with precision.
However, surely the significant difference between 1914 and the early 21st C is that although the original trigger in 1914 is held to be the assassination of the Archduke and there is no doubt that Serbia had a heavy responsibility, there’s equally no doubt that Saddam Hussein, whatever his other faults and vices, had nothing whatsoever to do with the Twin Towers.
Mrs JackW and I wish you both the greatest joy of the day and many happy years in the future.
Thank you.
Congratulations, Mr. Herdson. Very cunning to get married today, means you won't miss the race tomorrow.
Just three weeks to go before the start of the new Premier League season and I'm wondering whether it will prove to be a case of second season syndrome and the drop for Crystal Palace?
This time last year they were hot favourities at 1/2 or even shorter to be relegated ...... odds which appeared fully justified during the first part of the season when they were plumb bottom by some distance. Their subsequent recovery to escape with consummate ease under new manager Tony Pulis was nothing short of miraculous.
That said, I expect them to struggle again this season and to finish in the bottom 6, and although not favourites to go down, I would rate their chances of surviving at no greater than 60% or putting that an other way, 6/4 against relegation.
Those nice people at Betfair currently have them on offer at 4.2 for the drop, equivalent to just over 3/1 net in old money and therefore twice the odds I believe they should be.
Decent value therefore imho, but do your own research.
A case of pigs might fly I know, but he likes this circuit and his luck has to change sooner or later. Also, these are big odds, twice those being offered by another bookie I could mention.
Obviously I don't expect to collect, but then you never know.
On Iraq, I get the argument that justified the invasion: 9/11 changed everything in terms of managing self defence and foreign policy risk. If people were prepared to fly planes into buildings, killing thousands, what might a man who had already gassed his own citizens and invaded Kuwait be prepared to do? Saddam did not get this and assumed he could carry on playing games as normal. I am not sure the assassination of Franz Ferdinand was of the same order. It posed no existentialist threat, only one of authority.
On Iraq, though; in retrospect it is clear Saddam was never a serious threat to the world order, too many American hawks saw the invasion as an opportunity rather than as a last resort, planning was woeful, corners were cut, lies were told and resources were never properly allocated. The post-invasion planning element - or, more precisely, the abject failures surrounding it - was most crucial. If that had been done properly (and there is no reason why it could not have been) history would be far kinder to Bush and Blair than it has been.
One other point is that with the pace of technological change, the top brass are anxious to test their new kit every 10 years or so. I know it's a poor excuse for killing people (remember the Belgrano) but at least it keeps the psycho vote on-side.
If you think the real odds (if you know what I mean) are shorter then it's value and makes sense. Doesn't tempt me.
Astounded by Raikkonen's poor performance this year. My mind goes back to our spread discussions. I think we both agreed on Raikkonen scoring more than X amount (140?). Apart from Maldonado scoring under 60 (almost guaranteed now) it was practically the only thing we agreed on.
Let's all hope that 2014 doesn't reprise 1914.
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=79131
Villa will survive.
Yawn!!!!
Israel’s reward for giving up Gaza for the sake of peace. An underground infrastructure for permanent war. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4550063,00.html …
An article that shows how all the money that Hamas did receive from their allies was geared for war and the destruction of Israel.
My comment didn't apply only to us Brits.
Second only to OGH, David has been the mainstay of this site for many years and is deserving of everyone's very best wishes.
Perhaps the Prime Minister should de-lurk for a moment or two in between giving weighty consideration to a peerage for JohnO.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/great_yarmouth_ukip_contender_matthew_smith_steps_down_could_leader_nigel_farage_enter_the_fray_1_3701104
An intriguing point on marriages today, do you endow her with all your worldly goods and in exchange do you get a promise of obedience?
Thank you for your intriguing piece - had never thought of making that comparison. It does illustrate that the results of actions/decisions made at the time often to not come to fruition until years later - also a study of history can provide useful guidelines for decision-makers.
Regarding IRAQ2, it was apparent to most (except Bush & Blair) that the lid could only be kept on the various religious factions of IRAQ by an almost ruthless dictator. Removing that lid has led to an almost insoluble problems that causes misery and death and mutilation for thousands.
Similarly, on the effect of decisions made decades previously, the NHS born in 1948, did not envisage either immigration on recent scales including |EU freedom of residence, longer living or replacement organ/bone surgery and so that policy may require some modification to cope with these changes.
The PM is already married ....
There goes the peerage ....
In regard to your article, I do think that the world will become even more unstable, unless there is significant progress in finding new sources of cheap energy, reliable/cheap provision of food, water and shelter. Poverty is going to be a main driver in some people wanting to commit terrorism and crime. It is not the only factor, but if people are living in miserable conditions, it may be easier for them to be recruited.
If the world can work harder in ensuring that wealth is shared out a bit more equally and to support governments run secure democracies, then we have a chance. But if we just watch these problems go on from a distance, eventually it will get nearer to our shores, in the form of more and more immigration, worse security risks and civil unrest. What happens elsewhere in the world has a massive effect on how much we pay for most commodities.
Whilst London had a wet afternoon yesterday, took the opportunity to take my 7 year-old granddaughter around the Houses of Parliament.
Whilst of British parents, she was born and lived all her life in Spain and to my surprise knew and recognised all the wives of Henry 8 - all their portraits in one of the chambers. She is already quad-lingual (English, Spanish, Catalan and French) and it led me to wonder how many of UK pupils ever know as much about Spanish history or ever attain those linguistic skills. (She goes to a normal state school and not a private or international school).
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-camerons-big-society-in-tatters-as-charity-watchdog-launches-investigation-into-claims-of-government-funding-misuse-9629848.html
I think that the 1914 analogy only goes so far. The main actors in July 14 were all wanting war, with the UK probably the exception. The French and Austrians wanted to avenge their losses in 1870 and 1866, and the Russians their defeat by Japan in 05 and sieze Constantinople. The Germans wanted to defeat Russia before it modernised. All had leaders who wanted to wage aggressive wars of territory.
Modern leaders are not so aggressive, knowing wars are expensive and unpopular, and conquered territory hard to subdue. Modern terrorists, even when state sponsored, are in place of war not the justification. I accept that all does not run to plan...
As for Austria being a 'great power' in 1914: You have got to be kidding, right? Prussia had gained dominance over the [former] Holy Roman Empire 48-years earlier; Italy had unified in 1870; and those bl00dy southern-slavs, well....
WW1 was in the main about territorial expansion. This relates to the current Ukraine crisis, less so to the middle east which is more about tribal wars.
Give it a rest.
Just tuned into practice coverage. Beginning to think I should add Tom Clarkson to the space cannon list.
Edited extra bit: a street race on the streets, apparently, in Azerbaijan. I wonder if he's related to Legard.
Anyway, hope you have a wonderful wedding day, looks like you have picked the perfect time weather wise!
This is what SISI did to Jonah's Tomb; and that was holy site to another strand of Islam. Can you imagine what they would do to most of the great churches of Christendom: the few they don't destroy they'll turn into mosques.
And don't think that other strand of Islam would be any different.
http://rt.com/news/175636-iraq-jonah-tomb-mosul/
Sports coverage on the BBC is going to get worse.
"But the MPs warn that much more needs to be done to increase media coverage and attract wider industry sponsorship (for women)... The report says media organisations fail to engage fully in women's sport."
Now that's probably true, I hardly ever watch women's sport (beach volleyball excepted), but that's my choice. I don't tend to watch events for seniors either because they end not to be so good. Yes, I'm an elitist. But then I didn't moan when no one watched me try to play rugby.
Yesterday, I switched off when Radio 5 Live commentators went into raptures about bowls! What next? Orgasms over a good tiddley wink shot?
By all means, encourage girl's sport at school - it's healthy and good for the nation. But don't flood the BBC channels with Micky Mouse stuff in the interests of diversity.
I
While you're about ... I've started reading "Bane of Souls" and it's good reading so far. Especially as I'm not a real fan of fantasy. Having spent all my career in science, I prefer things I can explain.
I noticed one of your reviewers said the story benefited from not having too much gratuitous sex and violence. Hmm ... yes, but that's the only reason I finished the George Martin books. He does do gratuitous sex and violence, and the GOT series didn't spare it either.
Anyway, so far it's worth all of the 77p I paid, and I'm fussy.
Well done.
The Honor series will follow.
Betting PostIt'll take me a little while to write up my piece, but I know the tip, so here it is:
Backed Rosberg for pole at 3.6, hedged at 1.6.
It's a two-horse race, he finished P3 less than half a tenth behind Hamilton. Hamilton is favourite, but it's marginal. Plus, the laps are capable of delivering multiple hot laps so it's entirely possible the session will see-saw between the two of them.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/hungary-pre-qualifying.html
I actually prefer, as a rule, reading grimdark (as it's become known). Martin, Abercrombie and Lynch are some of my favourite authors. But when it comes to writing, that's just not my style. A bit of levity not only helps add contrast for the darker moments, it also makes things more credible, I think.
For the magic, I tried to focus on a mechanical(ish) approach, describing what happens more in physical terms rather than 'he felt the power well within his soul' etc. And if you're not into that you should definitely read Journey to Altmortis (happens in the Kuhrland, where practically no-one has magic).
F1: about an hour and a half to qualifying. Not expecting anything too dramatic, aside from the private duel for pole. Rain tomorrow could make things more unpredictable, and perhaps help Vettel, Bottas, Button and Hulkenberg.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/25/-sp-rupert-murdoch-passive-power-hack-attack-nick-davies
It's an extract from the soon to be published "Hack Attack"
It's not the sort of thing I'd normally be interested in, but the extract focuses around the lovely Rebekah Brook's wedding. The first part in particular is quite a fun read:
"But, for the most part, it is not the amiable Charlie who catches the eye in this gathering. His bride captures far more attention. Rebekah is beautiful, with her red hair falling in crazy corkscrews around her elfin face. She is also charming – really quite famous (among this power elite) for her ability to make anybody feel that she is their special friend, that she is part of their team, always ready with a favour, always willing to confide. She is particularly good with men, her fingers resting gently on their forearm and her gaze resting direct on their eyes. Not quite sexual, not quite romantic, but so intimate that a well married, conservative kind of man, several decades older than her, reflects that sometimes he finds himself sighing and wondering whether “maybe, if things had been a little different, maybe we would have been together”.
This is Rebekah who was so close to Tony Blair when he was prime minister that Downing Street aides recall Blair’s wife, Cherie, finding her in their flat and hissing privately: “Is she still here? When is she going?”; Rebekah who then effortlessly transferred her affection to the next prime minister, Blair’s great political rival, Gordon Brown, who showed his own affection for her by allowing his official country residence, Chequers, to be used one night the previous summer for an all-girls pyjama party and sleepover to mark her 40th birthday; Rebekah who now spends her weekends swapping canapes and gossip with Brown’s newest political rival, David Cameron, who could possibly be prime minister within a year, and who is said to sign off his notes to her with the words “Love, Dave”. Everybody (who is anybody) is Rebekah’s friend.
And she will break as well as make: she is famous not only for her charm but also for her tornado-like temper. Some at the Sun remember the morning she woke up to discover that the rival Daily Mirror had beaten them to a particular story, and how she expressed her feelings by walking into the office and targeting the news desk with a well aimed missile, hastily identified as a heavy glass ashtray. One of the guests at this wedding, who has been close to her for years, says that here in Oxfordshire Rebekah is a country wife, riding horses and organising shooting parties, but in London, where the real transactions take place, she is “the beating heart of the Devil”..."
What a woman!
'What a woman!
Yes but what a load of tittle tattle drivel you have just quoted. Cherie 'hissed privately to Blair' ?? so how come somebody can quote it? Equally what I find amazingly shocking is that a bride should try to look her best on her wedding day. Can't think why.
Smooooooz operator and weak men ! Does she have Ed's number ?
He says
"Indeed, when George W Bush had to respond to the Twin Towers attacks, he was placed in a very similar position to the Austrians after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand."
In fact the Twin Towers attack was primarily linked to Saudi Arabia and had no links to Iraq. There was no justification to attack Iraq because of 9/11.
George Bush and Tony Blair (who admits now but denied at the time) wanted regime change in Iraq and used WMD and terrorism as the pretext. Sadly they were not capable of thinking through the consequences.
Incidentally the Liberal Democrats should be given credit for being out of line and opposing the Iraq war in parliament. So as with the decision to join the coalition, Lib Dems can make the right decision for the country but fail to be appreciated by the populace. Nobody claims life is fair.