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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Po
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll
What will really please the Tories is that, like ICM last week, the UKIP drop has been accompanied by a rise in the CON share, It holds out hope that the Tories could move into the lead even though LAB stays constant.
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Con 273
Lib 15
Ed Miliband Prime Minister, majority of 24
Populus finds 273 UKIPpers on 18th - 20th July out of 2035 people polled
Populus finds 276 UKIPpers on 23rd - 24th July out of 2070 people polled.
That is a decrease from 13% to 9% apparently.
Populus' algorithms and weighting for UKIP is going to need some serious review after GE2015.
What did they do in February btw ?
FPT: Mr. Lennon, the Caspian Grand Prix sounds good. Nothing wrong with calling it the Azerbaijini[sp] Grand Prix either.
The European Grand Prix used to be used in Germany and Spain when those countries had two.
It was the same as not Flash just Gordon and reminds me when we were told Michael Foot's policies were what mattered not the leader's lack of PR-style.
Is this a "General Election, or Big Brother"?
Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
With UKIP,
The lower UKIP's headline score will be with Populus.
Monday poll 200 -> 81
Friday poll 244 -> 83
Unless their February methodology revision changed this but I don't see any evidence in the tables...
The line to take is especially good. Ed would rather fly to America for a photo with the Prez than debate Ukraine and Gaza
No substance, or style
This is an attempt to nullify these two bad points. It will fail.
"it's clearly not big brother"
Yes that's the "Drips bill".....we don't get a vote on that. :-)
It was Foot's policies that defeated him. Widespread nationalisation and unilateral nuclear disarmament to name but two.
He came across as a very nice man though. I remember watching a programme on TV on Swift and being astounded that he was one of the experts speaking.
His decision to chase a photo with Obama rather than speaking in the Commons about the Ukraine situation speaks volumes as to the priority he puts on image over substance.
I have never, and probably never will, be able to picture Miliband standing outside No10 speaking for this nation.
And until he can find a way of convincing enough people that this is something of which he is capable, his fate is the same as that of Foot and Kinnock.
But if he's going to play the "I don't care about spin" card then, for God's sake, don't hire spin doctors, don't do daft photo shoots and don't be so pathetic in your attempts to be seen with the US President. (Personally I'd prefer our politicians to stand up for Britain rather than endlessly seeking to be patted on the head by the US.)
They don't want to upset the Russian mafia !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/8575864/David-Cameron-and-Nick-Clegg-confronted-by-angry-NHS-doctor.html
I know a lot of people say that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister. Sadly, they're wrong...may the good Lord have mercy on our collective souls.
I don't expect to see UKIP's support rise by 6-7% in every seat. Obviously, they won't push up their vote share by that amount in Northern Ireland, Scotland, the Welsh Valleys, Welsh-speaking Wales. I think the party will underperform markedly in most of London, university seats, and the more prosperous Conservative-voting seats.
Therefore, the party must out-perform its national increase in other areas. Local and European elections give us an idea of which seats those will be.
David Tredinnick said he had spent 20 years studying astrology and healthcare and was convinced it could work.
The MP for Bosworth, a member of the health committee and the science and technology committee, said he was not afraid of ridicule or abuse.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28464009
That might be why TSE had to wait this morning? Rechecking the figures?
What is his prediction for the election results next year? ;-)
If Cameron had disappeared off for a photoshoot with a foreign leader - Miliband would have been first to call it a disgrace.
Miliband went off to get his photo taken with Obama rather than standing up in the Commons to be part of the public political condemnation of events in Ukraine.
It is not about being practical - but it is about playing your role as Leader of the Opposition, and that includes taking part in important moments like the statement on Monday.
He cared more about his own image than standing up as someone who aspires to being a statesman.
Being PM takes a lot more than fan-girling Obama.
I'd be astounded if UKIP don't rise on the Monday poll with Populus. They are overstuffed with UKIP people, but UKIP haven't lost 4% in a week with them.
That said, I don't think UKIP have truly lost 4% either, and would expect them to rise on Monday too to nearer their true value. All every poll should do is refine our estimate of the true value, not substitute the latest value in its place.
Ed Miliband is a geek who looks like Wallace, talks like a sort of Adrian Mole with adenoids, espouses an Hollande-style economy wrecking agenda, regularly apologises for all his 'posing with the Sun' type screw-ups, can't seem to do anything normal people do such as eat or sit or smile for photos in a non-creepy way and is widely regarded as his enemy's best asset. Who got to this exalted position by shafting his brother and cosying up to the unions.
Apart from that the man rocks! And is apparently very nice and not at all Ed Milibandish in person.
Of course, they did go back to using leeches and maggots not to long ago?
Medically bred maggots, not from lack of cleanliness. before the usual suspects start!
I can add it to the list.
On the other hand, so's homeopathy, and that gets funding. And I like the Chinese Zodiac story.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver 35m
@MSmithsonPB @PopulusPolls You should do a chart on how they round UKIP down from 244 to 83 whilst all other parties remain roughly same
Apparently water has "memory".
You find this out when you point out the mathematics of dilution.
Mr. D, not literally. There's a teeny-tiny percentage of something else.
apparently not?
http://bipedalia.wordpress.com/2011/02/13/running-the-numbers-on-homeopathic-dilution/
(at least as the "active ingredient" is involved)
4 days later he decried photo op politics.
Unfit for office. QED.
Read the section about "problems of homeopathic dilutions" it gets especially amusing for the most potent concentration 200C. And I am not even going to start about water memory. A load of bollocks.
Those who are well disposed towards Miliband and Labour might simply recoil yet further from the Nasty Party.
In a similar way to the more you suggest a UKIP voter might be a tad prejudiced, the more furiously they carve their X in the ballot paper.
And then have a photo taken with a ball.
'I like not this poll, bring me fresh polls!'
"Would your Majesty like them cooked or raw?"
A few tapas and cervejas? Lovely Jubbly!
(I'll go get my Sou'wester shall I?)
In the Populus table Labour pick up a net 45 voters from the Lib Dems, once you take off the voters the Tories also gain from the Lib Dems. The Tories lose a net 60 voters to UKIP, once you take off the voters that Labour also loses to UKIP - because it is the Tory-Labour difference that matters.
Labour win a net 13 voters from the Conservatives, but because these voters are simultaneously lost from the Conservatives and gained by Labour they count double in the electoral arithmetic and so are worth 26.
Thus of the total "gain" of voters by Labour of 131 votes almost 20% are in the Con-Lab battleground. In some recent polls this has been higher, about six months ago it was pretty close to zero, and after the Omnishambles budget it was about 50%.
There has been plenty of movement there, but if you only look at the gross movements and not the net effect then you can get a skewed view of how important it is.
In the Populus table Labour pick up a net 45 voters from the Lib Dems, once you take off the voters the Tories also gain from the Lib Dems. The Tories lose a net 60 voters to UKIP, once you take off the voters that Labour also loses to UKIP - because it is the Tory-Labour difference that matters.
Labour win a net 13 voters from the Conservatives, but because these voters are simultaneously lost from the Conservatives and gained by Labour they count double in the electoral arithmetic and so are worth 26.
Thus of the total "gain" of voters by Labour of 131 votes almost 20% are in the Con-Lab battleground. In some recent polls this has been higher, about six months ago it was pretty close to zero, and after the Omnishambles budget it was about 50%.
There has been plenty of movement there, but if you only look at the gross movements and not the net effect then you can get a skewed view of how important it is.
I note you can look into polls well my good friend
Any chance you can work out the headline figures of the Populus poll without the Q4 weightings ?
The amount of money spent on homeopathy may be small in the context of the NHS budget but it could do some good being spent on mental health care, say, for the young and - I speak with real experience - there are real problems to be addressed.
Any chance you can work out the headline figures of the Populus poll without the Q4 weightings ?It cannot be done without making one assumption that is very possibly not safe - and even then it would be difficult.
My guess is it would be very different.
One point I should make on large weightings. I criticised the Ashcroft Poll several times in the first weeks for massively under-polling C2 voters, and so having to double their responses with weighting, and in the last few Ashcroft Polls they've managed to find enough C2 voters in their original sample that the weightings have been vastly smaller.
No idea what - if anything - they have done differently, but it makes the poll more robust.
Populus should worry about the hilarious UKIP downweighting in their polls, and find some way to fix it.
Mind you I think that is called "medicine"
In practice the dilution levels are so ridiculously higher, that they are hard to grasp. Perhaps instead of being diluted we should use the word "eviscerated", "obliterated", or "annihilated" - and maybe it would be clearer.
We want to see pictures of our leaders taking every advantage to show themselves off, even if it means the wife gets an epidural by appointment. However, I suspect Justine would probably tell Ed where to go if he suggested that one.
Populus is down for UKIP due to a reduction by 5% of 2010C to UKIP switchers compared with the average this year. There is a lower switch to UKIP from the other parties as well but not as material as that.
No consistent evidence for such a reduction in C switchers in previous Populus polls, so may well be normal polling statistical variation.
The last time Populus had UKIP on 9 was on their poll 2/2/14 (last date of polling). However that was the last poll under their previous polling methodology which had UKIP significantly lower, so it is not directly comparable.
So 9% for UKIP is their lowest for Populus under current methodology.
This is the point when I treat all opinion polls with a fistful of salt until September. Holiday season means I trust them very little, even though the Conservative movement looks very welcome.
The raw, completely unweighted, figures for UKIP are almost identical in the two samples [up to 276 from 273].
The assumption made by Populus is that people answer this question in a reliable and invariant way, and so what happened is that more UKIP supporters answered their poll. If, instead, some of the people who would previously tell Populus that they identify with the Tories/Labour, but would now vote UKIP, have decided that they actually "usually identify" with UKIP - representing a firming of UKIP support - then Populus will downweight them more and reduce the UKIP poll score!
"I can't win. Vote for me"
Um...
Lab 310
Con 286
LD 26
UKIP 2
Nats 8
NI 18
I note Populus adjusted the baseline from 1% to 4% in February. That should help them get closer than they otherwise would have done but it's going to go horribly wrong for them if they get a surge in UKIP "identifiers" near the General Election time.
I've reached precisely the same conclusions as yourself on this poll - one for the bin so far as UKIP score is concerned.
Shadsy is 6-5 on 6.5 unders if you fancy it, I'm on the other side of that bet @ 4-6 for a ton.
Odd? There are plenty of prison places so it shouldn't need a Judge to inform the governor surely?
@Number10gov: The PM & Deputy PM visited @PentlandBrands today as @ONS stats show GDP is up 0.8% #LongTermEconomicPlan http://t.co/SYCgcr30H3
Visiting successful British companies promoting UK business and record economic growth.
Oh, wait...