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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited July 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Hmm. Not heard of A Night Like This, but wasn't I Want You by Savage Garden?

    Also, shouldn't Scottorum have two Ts, on the basis it's derived from the Scotti tribe of Hibernia?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Hmm. Not heard of A Night Like This, but wasn't I Want You by Savage Garden?

    Also, shouldn't Scottorum have two Ts, on the basis it's derived from the Scotti tribe of Hibernia?

    As much as I love Savage Garden and Darren Hayes, sheesh don't you know your Bob Dylan.

    And it is Malleus Scotorum.

    His large grey marble tomb has no effigy or decoration and the inscriptions "Edwardus Primus Scotorum Malleus. Pactum Serva" (Edward the First, Hammer of the Scots. Keep Troth) were not painted on it until the 16th century.



    http://www.westminster-abbey.org/our-history/royals/burials/edward-i-and-eleanor-of-castile
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    About no8.
    Its no longer possible for a few people to control what people hear, see or read like in the past.
    Israel's control or direct influence of some big western media centers (like New York media) doesn't work if people simply use the internet to see whats going on and how did it happen (see Arab-Israeli wars).
    If people watch TV or read a newspaper especially in america they think that Israel under attack by moon nazis, but if they use the internet suddently they are presented with a different non-edited picture.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    GDP per capita of Israel: 38000$
    GDP per capita of Gaza: 875$
    ratio: 1/43

    Israel wins the war on the cost of weapons for now.

    Errr: you just used GDP per capita.

    On that basis, Monaco would be able to outspend the US, as it has a higher GDP per capita.

    Nevertheless, your point is a good one. If you did it on a straight GDP basis, you would end up around 200-to-1, as there are approximately five times as many Israelis as there are Gaza residents.
    I compare the cost of the main weapon of offense of Hamas, the main weapon of defence of Israel and their affordability for each side. With that measure Israel can afford to defend itself easier than Hamas can attack it.
    I'm not sure you're getting my point (and I'm agreeing with you, by the way): that is you can use GDP when comparing how many missiles Hamas or Israel can afford to fire, but you cannot use GDP per capita.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Speedy said:



    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2014

    Hmm. Not heard of A Night Like This, but wasn't I Want You by Savage Garden?

    Also, shouldn't Scottorum have two Ts, on the basis it's derived from the Scotti tribe of Hibernia?

    As much as I love Savage Garden and Darren Hayes, sheesh don't you know your Bob Dylan.

    And it is Malleus Scotorum.

    His large grey marble tomb has no effigy or decoration and the inscriptions "Edwardus Primus Scotorum Malleus. Pactum Serva" (Edward the First, Hammer of the Scots. Keep Troth) were not painted on it until the 16th century.



    http://www.westminster-abbey.org/our-history/royals/burials/edward-i-and-eleanor-of-castile
    O/T

    TSE - wanted to submit this for your expert opinion.

    Someone was arguing yesterday that this is the worst song/music video [Kris Jenner, I love my friends] in the history of mankind. I thought you'd have a view...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6gUztf2a68
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,697
    Speedy said:

    About no8.
    Its no longer possible for a few people to control what people hear, see or read like in the past.
    Israel's control or direct influence of some big western media centers (like New York media) doesn't work if people simply use the internet to see whats going on and how did it happen (see Arab-Israeli wars).
    If people watch TV or read a newspaper especially in america they think that Israel under attack by moon nazis, but if they use the internet suddently they are presented with a different non-edited picture.

    That's why it's very important for Fox News to have an internet presence. One wouldn't want the American public confused with facts, would one?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Charles said:

    Hmm. Not heard of A Night Like This, but wasn't I Want You by Savage Garden?

    Also, shouldn't Scottorum have two Ts, on the basis it's derived from the Scotti tribe of Hibernia?

    As much as I love Savage Garden and Darren Hayes, sheesh don't you know your Bob Dylan.

    And it is Malleus Scotorum.

    His large grey marble tomb has no effigy or decoration and the inscriptions "Edwardus Primus Scotorum Malleus. Pactum Serva" (Edward the First, Hammer of the Scots. Keep Troth) were not painted on it until the 16th century.



    http://www.westminster-abbey.org/our-history/royals/burials/edward-i-and-eleanor-of-castile
    O/T

    TSE - wanted to submit this for your expert opinion.

    Someone was arguing yesterday that this is the worst song/music video [Kris Jenner, I love my friends] in the history of mankind. I thought you'd have a view...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6gUztf2a68
    Charles, that's not even in the top 40.

    I submit to you these contenders

    1) William Shatner - Total Eclipse Of The Heart - www.youtube.com/watch?v=J648lr8cjuw

    2) Crystal Swing - Livin' la Vida Loca (I don't think I'll ever recover from this) - www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w7XHiRgqyo

    3) The London Boys on the Top of the Pops was something special - as someone who was a child at the time, this left a real impression on me - www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPs_IksWVaQ
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:



    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?
    PS, talking of prognostications, and China, I'm going to win my bet with you, on Chinese GDP, aren't I?

    Out of curiosity, what are the terms?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:



    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?
    PS, talking of prognostications, and China, I'm going to win my bet with you, on Chinese GDP, aren't I?

    Yes. In fact I've changed my view on china 180 degrees. After being very pessimistic, I'm becoming increasingly positive
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:



    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?
    PS, talking of prognostications, and China, I'm going to win my bet with you, on Chinese GDP, aren't I?

    Yes. In fact I've changed my view on china 180 degrees. After being very pessimistic, I'm becoming increasingly positive
    Investors, unlike journalists, need to change their minds when the facts change :-)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Morgan Lake just won the Heptathlon High Jump at the World Juniors by 12cm over 2nd place with a new world junior record. And she's more than 2 years inside the age limit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Number 15's got to be a spoof, right? The po-est-of po-faced periodicals has finally found a sense of humour?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    Number 15's got to be a spoof, right? The po-est-of po-faced periodicals has finally found a sense of humour?

    Everyone knows pink was so last year, that's why he was so mortified to go out in it....
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    tut tut SeanT, never heard of Chengdu? That's where all the little pandas are. Hope you saw them. We were lucky enough to see a baby one (like a furless rat, in case you are wondering) when we visited about 4 years ago.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:



    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?
    PS, talking of prognostications, and China, I'm going to win my bet with you, on Chinese GDP, aren't I?

    Yes. In fact I've changed my view on china 180 degrees. After being very pessimistic, I'm becoming increasingly positive
    Investors, unlike journalists, need to change their minds when the facts change :-)
    Oh I will happily change my mind a dozen times a day. But I take my wagers more seriously, which is why I have only lost one bet on here, and triumphed in all others.

    Incidentally re China my recent trip there (to deep industrial Sichuan) both challenged and confirmed my feelings about the country.

    I was gobsmacked by the extent of the pollution and degradation, and also the ongoing poverty.

    Yet I was equally astonished by the sheer demographic size of the place (cities of 14m - Chengdu - of which I have never heard), the dynamism of the growth, and the potential for further growth, which will, barring planetary war, lead China to economic supremacy.

    China will overtake America quite soon, and it will then extend its lead as the preponderant global power. It is about as inevitable as the onset of autumn in September.

    However China will never rule the world the way Britain once did, or America did 1945-2000. China has too many internal problems and contradictions - and also lacks an imperial, evangelising ethos. They just want to get rich and be respected.

    Chinese cities include their surrounding territory in their population hence their inflated numbers.

    China already dominates the world but pollution and the obesity of the young foretell serious health issues in the future.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    I fear no 15 was serious. Not completely wrong, but absolutely lacking any sense of proportion. What is it about it that makes me think the writer is American?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    SeanT said:




    However China will never rule the world the way Britain once did, or America did 1945-2000. China has too many internal problems and contradictions - and also lacks an imperial, evangelising ethos. They just want to get rich and be respected.

    I have a trip coming up to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou province and Zhejiang province. Any tips on hotels (<£120/night) or things to see in the latter 3 (I've been to Beijing a few times, Shanghai only once and briefly)? I'm more interested in the sort of things that you write about (i.e. how people live) than historical artifacts. (Try not to get me arrested :-))

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead drops one point to three: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ? To you, someone of the Labour party must be poor. We are not all poor, Richard - just Socialists ! We care about the disadvantaged.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    surbiton said:

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ?
    She gets to keep Ed "rooted in real life". You dont think that's a privilege?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:




    However China will never rule the world the way Britain once did, or America did 1945-2000. China has too many internal problems and contradictions - and also lacks an imperial, evangelising ethos. They just want to get rich and be respected.

    I have a trip coming up to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou province and Zhejiang province. Any tips on hotels (
    Just wander around and go to markets, shops and bars - especially bars. I know you don't drink but the Chinese love to drink and that's where you'll find them at their most Chinese and interesting, IME.

    PS In Guangzhou the markets are amazing.
    Thanks Sean. I do have a drink occasionally, perhaps a good place to do it...

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead drops one point to three: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%

    (ukpr) 341/267/16/26 EICIPM
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:




    However China will never rule the world the way Britain once did, or America did 1945-2000. China has too many internal problems and contradictions - and also lacks an imperial, evangelising ethos. They just want to get rich and be respected.

    I have a trip coming up to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou province and Zhejiang province. Any tips on hotels (
    Just wander around and go to markets, shops and bars - especially bars. I know you don't drink but the Chinese love to drink and that's where you'll find them at their most Chinese and interesting, IME.

    PS In Guangzhou the markets are amazing.
    Thanks Sean. I do have a drink occasionally, perhaps a good place to do it...

    Nick, just make sure you line your stomach well. My experience is that when the Chinese get on the pop they go for it. "Well perhaps a half, then", don't cut it with those guys and they can get miffed if they get the impression their hospitality is being rejected.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:

    surbiton said:

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ?
    She gets to keep Ed "rooted in real life". You dont think that's a privilege?
    WTF are you talking about ? Richard was sneering because she apparently earns £250k. I hope she earns a lot more than that.

    It is somehow a belief amongst Tories that anyone with a high income should be a Tory and they cannot understand why many are not.

    As long as she pays her taxes, why is it any one else's business.

    I am HR tax payer. Some years I buy ISA's - some years I forget. It hardly makes any difference anyway. That's about the sum of my tax planning. Not very good but I don't care. Many of us are not interested in looking at the Bloomberg screen.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    For people calling Israel murderers as some on PB do, here is a counter argument to show who the true mad bastards are:

    http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4465/terrorists-reality-show
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:




    However China will never rule the world the way Britain once did, or America did 1945-2000. China has too many internal problems and contradictions - and also lacks an imperial, evangelising ethos. They just want to get rich and be respected.

    I have a trip coming up to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou province and Zhejiang province. Any tips on hotels (
    Just wander around and go to markets, shops and bars - especially bars. I know you don't drink but the Chinese love to drink and that's where you'll find them at their most Chinese and interesting, IME.

    It was amazing in Chengdu and Sichuan. I counted maybe 2 westerners apart from us in the whole city. And this is a big historic city (which used to get a few backpackers, but they seem to have stopped coming). In the outlying districts - 100 miles away, Emei sacred mountain - kids literally stopped and stared, amazed by their first sight of round eyed devil westerners. It's incredible you can still get that reaction.

    And in the Chengdu bars enthusiastic (slightly drunk) Chinese would buy us whole crates of beer and give us cartons of cigarettes, just for being westerners and coming to their city. This happened on several occasions. There was one American kid in one of the bars who admitted he hadn't bought a drink in 3 months, because the Chinese were so insistent on buying everything.

    Phenomenal hospitality. The Chinese have a reputation for rudeness, but in Sichuan they are entirely the opposite. Some of the friendliest people I've ever met.

    PS In Guangzhou the markets are amazing.
    Some Chinese shout, spit and stare but they are very friendly and personable - that was my experience of them anyway.

    People coming from India thought the trains were great in comparison, those coming across Russia remarked how friendly the Chinese were.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    surbiton said:

    Neil said:

    surbiton said:

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ?
    She gets to keep Ed "rooted in real life". You dont think that's a privilege?
    WTF are you talking about ? Richard was sneering because she apparently earns £250k.
    Try reading the posts before you go off on one of your rants for once.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    If you see a group of businessmen shouting at each other in a restaurant, they'll be arguing about the bill.

    Each will be insisting that they pay !

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Is the woman who wrote the article at 15. completely mad? Or is she sending up smug Guardianista's?

    I can't decide.

    Would be entertaining to read Sean T's reply to her sometime...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    surbiton said:

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ? To you, someone of the Labour party must be poor. We are not all poor, Richard - just Socialists ! We care about the disadvantaged.

    And with misguided good intentions invariably leave the poor in a worse situation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    SeanT said:

    Quincel said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:



    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.
    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?
    PS, talking of prognostications, and China, I'm going to win my bet with you, on Chinese GDP, aren't I?

    Out of curiosity, what are the terms?
    If I remember correctly, RCS reckoned Chinese GDP growth would slow below 5% this year, I said he was talking total bollocks.

    The bet was evens as to whether it came out below, or over, 5%. A clearly absurd bet, yet he took it.
    My view was that things would get worse quicker than people expected in China, largely as a result of the country approaching a Minsky moment (when debt servicing costs rise faster than economic growth, and you face a prolonged period of deleveraging). However, many of the concerns I have had have not come to pass, and the Chinese government has been much more open to reform than I had anticipated. This does not mean there will never be a recession on China. But the chances of one in the near term have receded. It is worth noting that the Chinese stock market has been one of e the world's worst performing in the last five years, and valuations are very low relative to most developed markets.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @TGOHF is normally all over these YG polls like a rash! Where is he?

    TGOHF Posts: 7,244
    July 21
    isam said:
    » show previous quotes
    Pahahaha troll!! ;)
    12% is the new 13% for yougov Kippers
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561



    Nick, just make sure you line your stomach well. My experience is that when the Chinese get on the pop they go for it. "Well perhaps a half, then", don't cut it with those guys and they can get miffed if they get the impression their hospitality is being rejected.

    Ran into that when I was in Vietnam - the affable head of the HCMC institute that we were working with didn't know much English, but he'd learned "Bottoms up!" and used it repeatedly. Fortunately he was soon so half-cut that he didn't notice I was just sipping, or too polite to comment.

    I've not found the Chinese unfriendly either, once you get past a couple of cultural differences (like spitting and snorting), and hospitality rules the roost, as others have said. I need to take a variety of "typically British" gifts for the other side of the tradition - I suppose I'd better raid the horrible tourist shops at Heathrow on the way out.

    Ah! Perhaps they'd like a gift set of Tom Knox novels.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2014

    Hmm. Not heard of A Night Like This, but wasn't I Want You by Savage Garden?

    Also, shouldn't Scottorum have two Ts, on the basis it's derived from the Scotti tribe of Hibernia?

    I sense that On A Night Like This is a generational thing.

    I saw that and immediately thought of the 1988 song of that name by late great Gerry Rafferty. In fact his songs are now twisting and flowing and strolling through my mind just at the mention of his name.

    Suspecting I may be on the wrong path, though, I used The Google and the references are to Kylie. Oh dear. Unfortunately I think I know which version TSE was referencing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Worth noting for ukip predictions... A bit less than I thought in fact, I used 75% in my ratings! which was why I made Thurrock such a stonking bet


    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    22/07/2014 22:28
    Interesting. With Nick Griffin gone, a man who despises #UKIP, how do 2010 #BNP voters plan to vote next year? --> pic.twitter.com/NqQhT2lX7H
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    surbiton said:

    An interesting snippet from item 6.

    "According to a member of the Labour leader's inner circle, the comprehensive-educated Thornton, with her non-political, provincial background, "roots him in real life".

    Except Justine went to Nottingham Girls High School, which is not a comprehensive.

    Curiously, her wikipedia entry makes no mention of NHGS, as well.



    That's £250K+ a year Justine.
    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ? To you, someone of the Labour party must be poor. We are not all poor, Richard - just Socialists ! We care about the disadvantaged.

    Why don't you bring back grammar schools then?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    isam said:

    Worth noting for ukip predictions... A bit less than I thought in fact, I used 75% in my ratings! which was why I made Thurrock such a stonking bet


    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    22/07/2014 22:28
    Interesting. With Nick Griffin gone, a man who despises #UKIP, how do 2010 #BNP voters plan to vote next year? --> pic.twitter.com/NqQhT2lX7H

    Would love to chat to the 1% who say they'll now vote LD. Both of them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    I believe the expression is he's got form.

    Lib Dem MP David Ward criticised over Gaza tweets

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28424396
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I need to take a variety of "typically British" gifts for the other side of the tradition - I suppose I'd better raid the horrible tourist shops at Heathrow on the way out.

    Ah! Perhaps they'd like a gift set of Tom Knox novels.

    Make sure that you don't breach the Bribery Act...

    (And I'd avoid the Tom Knox novels that deal with China...)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    surbiton said:

    I find some of your comments unnecessarily sneering. She is a lawyer and hence earns £250k. Is she getting any special priveleges ? To you, someone of the Labour party must be poor. We are not all poor, Richard - just Socialists ! We care about the disadvantaged.

    Sorry, Surbiton. I was sneering, it is true - but not at Mrs Miliband.

    I was sneering at those who attempt to make political capital out from the backgrounds of politicians, such as George Osborne and David Cameron, contrasting them with down-to-earth Justine and Ed.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    There is nothing wrong with Justine earning 250 k.

    There is nothing wrong with her going to Nottingham Girl's High School (which after all was probably her parent's choice).

    There is everything wrong with spinning Justine as a comprehensive-educated girl from the provinces keeping Ed in touch with real life.

    The snippet I quoted is allegedly directly from the "Labour leader's inner circle", whatever that means.

    It is not clear whether this is Labour Party spin. Or whether item 6 is just plain shoddy journalism by Mehdi Hasan.

    That is, comprehensively-educated Mehdi Hasan, because he went to Merchant Taylor's school in a very rough part of Three Rivers, Hertfordshire.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    An interesting article which (for once!) TSE missed:

    Home Office research says between a third and a quarter of the fall in crime over the last two decades may be down to lower usage of hard drugs

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10984149/How-heroin-played-key-role-in-rise-and-fall-of-crime-rates.html

    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Or why they dont draw the logical conclusion that decriminalising them would reduce crime even more.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:



    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Or why they dont draw the logical conclusion that decriminalising them would reduce crime even more.
    Haha

    If we decriminalised all crime, the crime rate would be zero!

    All crime is caused by law, let's scrap all laws!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Neil said:



    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Or why they dont draw the logical conclusion that decriminalising them would reduce crime even more.
    Haha

    If we decriminalised all crime, the crime rate would be zero!

    All crime is caused by law, let's scrap all laws!
    Are you sure UKIP is the party for you?

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Richard_Nabavi

    'I was sneering at those who attempt to make political capital out from the backgrounds of politicians, such as George Osborne and David Cameron, contrasting them with down-to-earth Justine and Ed.'

    What keeps Ed & Justine down-to-earth is their £4.5 million property portfolio and household income of around £350,000.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:



    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Or why they dont draw the logical conclusion that decriminalising them would reduce crime even more.
    Haha

    If we decriminalised all crime, the crime rate would be zero!

    All crime is caused by law, let's scrap all laws!
    Are you sure UKIP is the party for you?

    Sure am

    I know very few people who haven't taken drugs a lot, and I know many many people that have been caught with drugs by police... They are more or less legal anyway, no one got put away except for two who were caught with hundreds of thousands of pounds worth, one of whom was in France not here anyway

    Alcohol is legal, but there are still a lot of crimes caused by its use, why should legalising drugs stop crime associated with it? It's not going to make them less addictive or make drug users have more money to buy them
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited July 2014
    What an utter shambles US and UK foreign policy towards Russia over MH17, with no proof that Russia supplied the rebels. And I hope plenty of people saw the 3 links I posted last night. What about that Ukrainian fighter jet in the vicinity? Why a complete blackout of any mention of that on our mainstream media? It's at moments like these that you realise just how far democracy and impartial journalism have fallen in our country.

    And as for a common EU foreign policy on the whole situation....pull the other one. It really is a complete and utter farce, and the sooner the whole EU is consigned to the dustbin of history, which it will be when the Euro collapses after October 2015, the better.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    An interesting article which (for once!) TSE missed:

    Home Office research says between a third and a quarter of the fall in crime over the last two decades may be down to lower usage of hard drugs

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10984149/How-heroin-played-key-role-in-rise-and-fall-of-crime-rates.html

    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Demographics, there are less young impressionable people in the population now than there were 2 decades ago, when 1964 was the peak birth rate in the UK post WW2.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    BBC: Frank Dobson standing down at GE.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TGOHF said:
    The chinese can turn around the ship pretty quickly as long as the leadership has an idea where to turn it.
    With the eurozone its just waiting for the bomb to go off and demolish the whole structure like it never existed, no one in its leadership knows how to turn the ship even if they cared.

    That is the material difference, in europe politicians that fail (or get caught stealing) go to a nice cruise to the caribbean, in China they get executed.

    Speedy: didn't you once claim that PMIs were lagging economic indicators?

    Best to lay off the economic prognostications, huh?

    PS, talking of prognostications, and China, I'm going to win my bet with you, on Chinese GDP, aren't I?



    Out of curiosity, what are the terms?

    If I remember correctly, RCS reckoned Chinese GDP growth would slow below 5% this year, I said he was talking total bollocks.

    The bet was evens as to whether it came out below, or over, 5%. A clearly absurd bet, yet he took it.

    My view was that things would get worse quicker than people expected in China, largely as a result of the country approaching a Minsky moment (when debt servicing costs rise faster than economic growth, and you face a prolonged period of deleveraging). However, many of the concerns I have had have not come to pass, and the Chinese government has been much more open to reform than I had anticipated. This does not mean there will never be a recession on China. But the chances of one in the near term have receded. It is worth noting that the Chinese stock market has been one of e the world's worst performing in the last five years, and valuations are very low relative to most developed markets.

    Its an absurd thing to bet on given how fabricated the number is. The Chinese stockmarket tells you a lot about what investors think of their economy.

    And a farcical thing in our GDP figures (and the USA) is that we effectively count public sector employees twice, as we count them as government spending, and the expenditure that they spend in the economy with their wages as well! Gordon Brown couldn't have dreamt up a better distortion for valuing public sector employees over private sector employees if he tried! And then everyone puts so much store in 0.1% of GDP growth or contraction on such a bonkers figure. Such is the way of the world......!!!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    hunchman said:

    and the sooner the whole EU is consigned to the dustbin of history, which it will be when the Euro collapses after October 2015, the better.

    How soon after October 2015 will the Euro collapse? And why will it survive until then?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    isam said:

    Neil said:



    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Or why they dont draw the logical conclusion that decriminalising them would reduce crime even more.
    Haha

    If we decriminalised all crime, the crime rate would be zero!

    All crime is caused by law, let's scrap all laws!
    Using purely economic logic, the optimal rate of murder is positive, as at some point the marginal utility of putting extra resources in to stop murders (at a low rate) occurring outweighs the benefit of trying to get the figures down to zero. Not that I would dream of making an argument on those specious grounds!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    hunchman With the exception of Germany, which has both low unemployment and low debt.

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Neil said:

    hunchman said:

    and the sooner the whole EU is consigned to the dustbin of history, which it will be when the Euro collapses after October 2015, the better.

    How soon after October 2015 will the Euro collapse? And why will it survive until then?
    Economic confidence model doesn't turn down until then.

    As for the exact date - good question, lets see where we are in October 2015. We're starting to see a slow drift of capital back to Germany within the eurozone, in the vague belief that you'll get deutschmarks when it falls apart. The wider geopolitical ructions going on are just starting to set in motion a capital flow towards the US as the least dirty shirt - look at US stockmarket way outperforming European markets in the past few months.

    Look at the farce of European foreign policy on MH17 - the wimplings towards Russia are basically the PIGs who can't do without Russian foreign capital, the on the fences are France (selling those specialist military helicopters towards Russia - imagine if the UK was doing that right now!) and Germany totally in hock to Russia on imported energy / exports whatever Frau Merkel says. And then UK and the baltic states and Sweden as the hardliners. Try getting a common foreign policy out of that unholy lot! The wimpling PIGs attitude towards Russia says a lot about how they view their own economic strength.....or not!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    hunchman With the exception of Germany, which has both low unemployment and low debt.

    Germany isn't as strong as it loooks....50% of their municipalities on the verge of bankruptcy for example. That will surprise people when that one comes to the attention of the mainstream!

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/12/german-municipalities-in-crisis/
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    MikeL said:

    BBC: Frank Dobson standing down at GE.

    That's been widely touted for the past week.

    The one I found interesting was Dan Byles, for the most marginal Tory seat of Warwickshire North. That tells you a lot about the Tory marginal MP's belief in them getting an overall majority next year......or not!

    I said incorrectly at the time that the 2010GE was the best election to lose - well I believe that about the 2015GE in spades, given the economic confidence model turns down post October 2015, in a Great Depression to 2020.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Really like this website that tracks a lot of the planes in the sky above us - fascinating to see the routes that long haul planes take (basically the bigger aircraft on the map):

    http://www.flightradar24.com/51.5,-0.13/7

    Good night all!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    hunchman said:

    What an utter shambles US and UK foreign policy towards Russia over MH17, with no proof that Russia supplied the rebels. And I hope plenty of people saw the 3 links I posted last night. What about that Ukrainian fighter jet in the vicinity? Why a complete blackout of any mention of that on our mainstream media? It's at moments like these that you realise just how far democracy and impartial journalism have fallen in our country.

    And as for a common EU foreign policy on the whole situation....pull the other one. It really is a complete and utter farce, and the sooner the whole EU is consigned to the dustbin of history, which it will be when the Euro collapses after October 2015, the better.

    The fighter jet story was on the front of the Indy's website yesterday (or the day before, I forget). Hardly a blackout.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    hunchman said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC: Frank Dobson standing down at GE.


    given the economic confidence model turns down post October 2015, in a Great Depression to 2020.
    The "Mili-pression"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    hunchman said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:



    What it doesn't seem to explain is why drug usage came down.

    Or why they dont draw the logical conclusion that decriminalising them would reduce crime even more.
    Haha

    If we decriminalised all crime, the crime rate would be zero!

    All crime is caused by law, let's scrap all laws!
    Using purely economic logic, the optimal rate of murder is positive, as at some point the marginal utility of putting extra resources in to stop murders (at a low rate) occurring outweighs the benefit of trying to get the figures down to zero. Not that I would dream of making an argument on those specious grounds!
    It's a hugely important point, and not at all specious: the value of a human life is a critical part of a cost-benefit analysis when it comes to deciding whether investment spending is worthwhile.

    From memory, the figure that the government uses is that a human life is "worth" £1 million: i.e. if a safety measure on the railway system (which has no other cost or benefit other than saving lives) costs £100 million, then it needs to save 100 lives (not sure over what period) to be considered a good use of taxpayers' money
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited July 2014
    RobD said:

    hunchman said:

    What an utter shambles US and UK foreign policy towards Russia over MH17, with no proof that Russia supplied the rebels. And I hope plenty of people saw the 3 links I posted last night. What about that Ukrainian fighter jet in the vicinity? Why a complete blackout of any mention of that on our mainstream media? It's at moments like these that you realise just how far democracy and impartial journalism have fallen in our country.

    And as for a common EU foreign policy on the whole situation....pull the other one. It really is a complete and utter farce, and the sooner the whole EU is consigned to the dustbin of history, which it will be when the Euro collapses after October 2015, the better.

    The fighter jet story was on the front of the Indy's website yesterday (or the day before, I forget). Hardly a blackout.
    And the Indy is read by how many people.......200k-300k these days - that's hardly mainstream. Imagine the BBC, ITV or Channel 4 or the Sun or the Mirror putting those sands of doubt into the anti-Putin / Russia narrative. It would be about as likely as Roger Harrabin declaring that all his global warming stuff has been nonsense for all these years - the latest attempt to refloat the nonsense particularly absurd:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/21/global-warming-crowd-now-argue-it-is-cycles-that-mask-the-warming-trend/

    Good night and good night Alistair Cook on the England captaincy!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    hunchman said:

    Really like this website that tracks a lot of the planes in the sky above us - fascinating to see the routes that long haul planes take (basically the bigger aircraft on the map):

    http://www.flightradar24.com/51.5,-0.13/7

    Good night all!

    Always loads more planes over the USA than anywhere else (Including Europe)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    SeanT said:



    If you must get back into Parliament, and I confess I have no great admiration for Ms Soubry so I am increasingly neutral on yr campaign, can you promise to stop being so assiduously loyal?

    If you can, it would be nice if there was a non-insane MP willing to stick up, in a non insane way, for Palestine, for instance. Or, say, be pro genetically modified food. i.e. someone willing to take the true-but-politically-inconvenient position.

    Given that you will be way beyond the call of ambition, if you return to Westminster, this could be yr role. And a highly valuable role, too.

    Actually yes. I've come to the conclusion that always giving the benefit of the doubt doesn't do anyone any good - not me, or the constituency, or the party, or (to be grand about it) the future of society that we're supposed to be working on. I shan't turn into George Galloway but I can't see myself being a zealot either. Intelligent free-thinking social democracy is the general idea. Maybe we'll see how it works out.

  • SeanT said:



    If you must get back into Parliament, and I confess I have no great admiration for Ms Soubry so I am increasingly neutral on yr campaign, can you promise to stop being so assiduously loyal?

    If you can, it would be nice if there was a non-insane MP willing to stick up, in a non insane way, for Palestine, for instance. Or, say, be pro genetically modified food. i.e. someone willing to take the true-but-politically-inconvenient position.

    Given that you will be way beyond the call of ambition, if you return to Westminster, this could be yr role. And a highly valuable role, too.

    Actually yes. I've come to the conclusion that always giving the benefit of the doubt doesn't do anyone any good - not me, or the constituency, or the party, or (to be grand about it) the future of society that we're supposed to be working on. I shan't turn into George Galloway but I can't see myself being a zealot either. Intelligent free-thinking social democracy is the general idea. Maybe we'll see how it works out.

    Go for it NP!
    You can't have liked how Private Eye described you.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    hunchman Expensive pensions for German local municipalities does not an economic calamity make, we have had similar problems here solved through ending final salary pensions etc The fundamentals of the economy, low unemployment, inflation and debt are strong. Night
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    squeak
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SeanT said:



    If you must get back into Parliament, and I confess I have no great admiration for Ms Soubry so I am increasingly neutral on yr campaign, can you promise to stop being so assiduously loyal?

    If you can, it would be nice if there was a non-insane MP willing to stick up, in a non insane way, for Palestine, for instance. Or, say, be pro genetically modified food. i.e. someone willing to take the true-but-politically-inconvenient position.

    Given that you will be way beyond the call of ambition, if you return to Westminster, this could be yr role. And a highly valuable role, too.

    Actually yes. I've come to the conclusion that always giving the benefit of the doubt doesn't do anyone any good - not me, or the constituency, or the party, or (to be grand about it) the future of society that we're supposed to be working on. I shan't turn into George Galloway but I can't see myself being a zealot either. Intelligent free-thinking social democracy is the general idea. Maybe we'll see how it works out.

    Go for it NP!
    You can't have liked how Private Eye described you.


    Oh go on, tell us! For those who don't know, or need an early morning laugh.
  • GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:



    If you must get back into Parliament, and I confess I have no great admiration for Ms Soubry so I am increasingly neutral on yr campaign, can you promise to stop being so assiduously loyal?

    If you can, it would be nice if there was a non-insane MP willing to stick up, in a non insane way, for Palestine, for instance. Or, say, be pro genetically modified food. i.e. someone willing to take the true-but-politically-inconvenient position.

    Given that you will be way beyond the call of ambition, if you return to Westminster, this could be yr role. And a highly valuable role, too.

    Actually yes. I've come to the conclusion that always giving the benefit of the doubt doesn't do anyone any good - not me, or the constituency, or the party, or (to be grand about it) the future of society that we're supposed to be working on. I shan't turn into George Galloway but I can't see myself being a zealot either. Intelligent free-thinking social democracy is the general idea. Maybe we'll see how it works out.

    Go for it NP!
    You can't have liked how Private Eye described you.


    Oh go on, tell us! For those who don't know, or need an early morning laugh.
    It was iirc that NP would be happy to eat his own feet if the whips wanted him to
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    hunchman said:

    RobD said:

    hunchman said:

    What an utter shambles US and UK foreign policy towards Russia over MH17, with no proof that Russia supplied the rebels. And I hope plenty of people saw the 3 links I posted last night. What about that Ukrainian fighter jet in the vicinity? Why a complete blackout of any mention of that on our mainstream media? It's at moments like these that you realise just how far democracy and impartial journalism have fallen in our country.

    And as for a common EU foreign policy on the whole situation....pull the other one. It really is a complete and utter farce, and the sooner the whole EU is consigned to the dustbin of history, which it will be when the Euro collapses after October 2015, the better.

    The fighter jet story was on the front of the Indy's website yesterday (or the day before, I forget). Hardly a blackout.
    And the Indy is read by how many people.......200k-300k these days - that's hardly mainstream. Imagine the BBC, ITV or Channel 4 or the Sun or the Mirror putting those sands of doubt into the anti-Putin / Russia narrative. It would be about as likely as Roger Harrabin declaring that all his global warming stuff has been nonsense for all these years - the latest attempt to refloat the nonsense particularly absurd:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/21/global-warming-crowd-now-argue-it-is-cycles-that-mask-the-warming-trend/

    Good night and good night Alistair Cook on the England captaincy!
    Global Warming deniers should read up on the scientific method ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method ). Then they should consider why the vast majority of scientists are not climate change deniers ( http://www.salon.com/2014/03/25/10853_out_of_10855_scientists_agree_man_made_global_warming_is_happening/ ).
    The scientific method is designed to work out what is happening based on experimentation. When there are contrary indications experiments are made to see if the results are repeatable.If so the theory is refined. Newton wasn't wrong, but Einstein's work extended our knowledge.
    AGW is an important subject and needs to be talked about logically. So less of the "absurd" "nonsense" please.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:



    If you must get back into Parliament, and I confess I have no great admiration for Ms Soubry so I am increasingly neutral on yr campaign, can you promise to stop being so assiduously loyal?

    If you can, it would be nice if there was a non-insane MP willing to stick up, in a non insane way, for Palestine, for instance. Or, say, be pro genetically modified food. i.e. someone willing to take the true-but-politically-inconvenient position.

    Given that you will be way beyond the call of ambition, if you return to Westminster, this could be yr role. And a highly valuable role, too.

    Actually yes. I've come to the conclusion that always giving the benefit of the doubt doesn't do anyone any good - not me, or the constituency, or the party, or (to be grand about it) the future of society that we're supposed to be working on. I shan't turn into George Galloway but I can't see myself being a zealot either. Intelligent free-thinking social democracy is the general idea. Maybe we'll see how it works out.

    Go for it NP!
    You can't have liked how Private Eye described you.


    Oh go on, tell us! For those who don't know, or need an early morning laugh.
    It was iirc that NP would be happy to eat his own feet if the whips wanted him to
    Ah yes, I'd heard about that one. Many thanks!
This discussion has been closed.