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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got close
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place
With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov.
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Blimey, were the fun and games of Euro elections only 2 months ago? – seems a lot longer!
Good - Five days late, but at least they didn’t end up in Moscow as originally reported.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28413467
With his own and others' GE VI surveys showing unmistakable signs of an increase in Labour's lead over recent days, I'm not sure what movement would currently rank as a surprise, in either direction.
Former Conservative MP Andrew Pelling was 20,000 days old on the day he was declared elected as a Labour councillor in Croydon.
Mario Creatura (assistant to Gavin Barwell MP) was 10,000 days old when he was declared elected as a Conservative councillor on the same day.
I was aware of the latter fact a few weeks before the election in May, but I have only just noticed the former fact today.
3 hours 3 minutes 3 seconds
Does the 27% include the UKIP spoiler parties and should it?
I've noticed Ed coming over as "Super Prudence" lately. He will eliminate the deficit and pay down the debt without spending more money. A little fanciful, but for those who want to believe, it may help to reassure them. Only a few at the margins but they all count when the polls are so close.
Harriet mentioned the war but she may have got away with it.
1. Poll on Gaza conflict.
Whilst in general both sides' actions are equally unjustified, poll reveals that more LAB and LDs support Palestinians whilst more Cons and UKIP support Israel.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/21/israel-palestine-latest-offensives-both-sides-unju/
2. Peter Kellner on DC & the Cons
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/21/your-problem-pm-blowing-wind/
What's the PB view on which way things will develop?
As old gits, our income isn't that high but I've paid off the mortgage and we have tax-free income from solar panels (thanks, Ed). So I'm Labour-proof.
But when Ed comes in, for the rich bastards earning more than £40k a year .... Winter is coming, as they say in Game of Thrones.
Scratch a Tory, any Tory, any time, and you find someone who believes in markets more than he or she does in ballots...
My definition of "rich bastards" is someone who has a higher income than me. Like my definition of being "old" - someone five years older then me.
Labour's definition of "rich" will only be revealed in late 2015.
Psychologically, it may well be so. On the other hand, I am puzzled by the morality involved in supporting a politician, any politician, who appeals to jealousy.
Taking UKIP ICM 9
Yougov 13
Opinium 17
Comres 17
Survation/TNS have UKIP in the 20s atm - hard to figure in
But a true UKIP figure of 14 would satisfy the relative accuracy of all the pollsters relative to the Euros (Sort of)
The interesting thing to watch will be to see if UKIP heads out of single figures in the next ICM or out of the 20s in the next Survations/TMS.
I agree but you're dissing Labour's entire electoral appeal.
OGH from time to time reminds us that a British General election consists of several hundred individual contests. Indeed it does, and for some time I have only been prepared to vote Labour in a safe Tory seat: I consider that I ought vote ethically, and as no party that is in a position to form a government can have an ethical platform, I vote for a candidate who is sure to lose.
30 minutes
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 288 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Next.
Reality vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
I'm reminded of a very eloquent post by RichardN last night when he talked of Liberal and Green voters divesting themselves of the distasteful prospect of governing.
It was Ozzy's failure to look at both sides of the balance sheet in the early years of the parliament that embedded the mess. He has come round to the virtues of capital expenditure but three years too late.
Labour's sniping on borrowing after leaving a £170bn deficit never fails to make me feel sick.
Mr. Fett, perhaps, but the commentary on the self-important countdown is absolutely essential
Just a couple of days till Hungary. Not sure Coulthard describing it as 'Monaco without the barriers' is a good thing. Bit like having an encounter with a lady that's 'a one night stand without the sex'.
Were you on the scriptwriting team for "The Life of Brian"?
To the extent that idealism is a form of perfectionism, I have some sympathy: perhaps all the abstainers are self-defeating, self-comforting idealists, too. The problem of course is that any other position reduces to "my pragmatism is good, yours is bad (or perhaps 'less good' since this is pragmatism we're discussing, after all)".
Granted that human nature is such that it is impossible to behave ethically all, or even most of the time (and perhaps that does include the ballot box, after all) the more interesting question might be "Is it possible to behave ethically on the comments column of pb.com?" (Given that none of us are writing comments anything like most of the time.)
If that does happen though I as a working class Derbyshire guy would have great concerns about Labour's future. Personally I think it is better long term for Labour if they lose this one and have a big review of where to go. More distance from those big Unions is vital as a start.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 8th July Projection) :
Con 309 (+2) .. Lab 278 (-4) .. LibDem 32 (+2) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 17 seats short of a majority
Labour 48 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 8th July - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Anyway DCCC quest for a major one day trophy begins on Saturday. 50/1 odds far too short. Nice easy starter vs Hampshire Royals
Classic example in Cambridge as Labour took control - their first acts ? To hire more people ( on defined benefit pensions)
An officer to encourage employers to pay the living wage ? What a waste of money.
"Cash would be used to double the number of enforcement officers tasked with keeping the city clean from three to six, and to employ an officer to encourage employers in Cambridge to pay staff the ‘living wage’.
More officers would be recruited to serve as ‘Chesterton coordinator’ and to help residents save on energy and water bills, while 20 apprentices would be recruited over four years."
Read more: http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Cambridge/Public-loo-fees-set-to-be-hiked-in-Cambridge-to-help-Labour-city-councils-bid-to-tackle-poverty-and-litter-20140705074813.htm#ixzz38BQYOrr0"
That mindset just leaves me aghast. Taxpayers are to them a golden goose to be plundered ad nauseam. We can't afford a state like this. If applied at national level after 2015, PM Redward is going to have an utterly torrid time. The lefties round here seem to be fizzing at the bunghole at the prospect of Labour getting back into power. They may get what they wish for. By 2020 they'll be much much less happy with things.
All about unity!
But of course it is the wrong one.
Do you really think that the capital markets would have tolerated a capital investment (!) plan by any government in the EU in 2010 including the UK with our own currency? UK 10yr rates at the time were amongst the lowest of our european contemporaries (they are now amongst the highest and that's with "austerity") and it was the widely broadcast commitment to austerity that kept them sensible.
Cast your mind back to those dark days. Defaults were widely expected, governments were placed under stringent conditions, haircuts were the norm.
And you think in that environment the UK could have said: fine we're going to spend spend spend (regardless of the "multiplier"). Really?
The overall delta and individual "wrong way" movements will be interesting to analyse.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/22/credit-suisse-loss-tax-evasion-uk-public-finances-us-inflation-live#block-53ce22dee4b01b52a03a5882
We're not experiencing growth with any real substance.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/22/credit-suisse-loss-tax-evasion-uk-public-finances-us-inflation-live#block-53ce24f3e4b0cdbc28611edb
A figure of eight for Westminster would be a very good return for the SNP who do tend to lose out somewhat to split-ticketing at wider UK elections. The number would have them close to their heydays of 1974.
Labour 35%
Conservative 35%
Lib Dem 10%
UKIP 10%
EM = PM
PP = LOTO
Constituency Hunches:
The Sort of North East 3:
Redcar: Lab Gain
Stockton South: Lab Gain
Berwick: Con Gain
The My Ex-Manor 2:
Loughborough: Lab Gain
Ealing Central & Acton: Lab Gain
The Full Monty 1:
Sheffield Hallam: Lib Dem Hold
You'll all be pleased to know that these hunches will not be updated between now and polling day!
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/07/22/angst-and-empty-grandstands/
German team dominating the season, German driver reigning world champion, another German leading the title race... it's a bit odd that Hockenheim seems to have had far fewer attendees than the A1 Ring in Austria, which F1 hadn't been for about a decade.
Certainly the fact he holds Ochil & South PErthshire as a Labour hold indicates that he feels SLAB will perform OK in Scotland at the GE
According to ukpollingreport the following seats are SNP gains:
Argyll & Bute
Gordon
Inverness Bairn & Sratshpey
Ochil & South Perthshire
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross
Given the poor performance of the Lib Dems in Scotland, Gordon is surely the strongest chance - also the Lib Dems need to come from 2nd, not 4th.
I'm on in both Inverness and Caithness but I think given Alexander's place at the heart of Gov't Inverness is more likely to go than Caithness. But perhaps JackW thinks Danny can hold on - or perhaps a Labour gain... I sincerely hope not as I've essentially dutched the Lib Dems and SNP in Danny's seat.
So JackW is predicting one of Inverness or Argyll to fall so far as I can work out - Since coming from 4th is perhaps tricky in Argyll and tactical considerations might squeeze them out (Who knows it could even be a CON gain !!) I think the 2 SNP gains JackW is forecasting are:
Gordon & Inverness, Bairn & Strathspey
But it could also be Gordon & Argyll/Bute
Definitely Gordon and one of Inverness or Argyll.
It seems a sensible enough prediction.
This week's GDP figures may well signal the end of his run of good fortune.
There's a possibility you might be fishing in the right country ....
A Miliband spokesperson said the meeting with Obama lasted 25 minutes. "The Leader of the Opposition and the President discussed a range of issues, including the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, and the future of the European Union," the spokesperson said. "The pair also discussed the economy, climate change and the approaching referendum in Scotland."
Obama I guess would like no in September and no referendum in 2017.
In order to win 8 as I've posted previously, (without Ochil & South Perthshire) the SNP need to either win Argyll coming through from 4th to 1st or unseat Danny Alexander - both of which would be a huge result for them on the night.
They may be very popular but the electoral geography is tricky for them.
Out of interest - how many Scottish seats do you think the Tories will get? 0/1/2/more?
I guess that depends alot on Sept.
Quite flattering really
Obviously the whole premise of the thread is undermined by Mikes assertion that AIFE cost UKIP significant number of votes, which would make ICM no more accurate in the euros than TNS, who have UKIP VI on 22%
In fact the comparison is even less meaningful than that, as we are comparing the last polls before the euros, with polls 10 months before the GE, and ICM had UKIP in 3rd place on 20% in earlier polls
Wikipedia show all the polls for over a year before the election... YG and ICM were the only ones who didn't predict a UKIP win
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
LAB 33%
CONS 35%
EDWARD FOR PM POSSIBLY SO
EAST MIDLANDS TOP 6
LOUGHBOROUGH CONS HOLD
AMBER VALLEY LABOUR GAIN
EREWASH PROBABLE LABOUR GAIN
BROXTOWE HARD TO CALL 50/50
SHERWOOD LABOUR GAIN
HIGH PEAK CONS HOLD
Possible surprise gain for Tories in Derby North, as Williamson is a ****
Clegg and Hughes to hold on and the Liberals to hold enough seats to stay in coalition, probably with Edward.
Do a MT.
NO
NO
NO
Wow, we can all be reassured by that.
What was Osbourne's spending plan before the election?
I suppose I am projecting what I want to happen - Nicky Morgan to give us the 'Portillo moment' of GE2015! However, now that she is in cabinet, Labour are likely to throw more effort into taking a high profile scalp and I anticipate an above-average swing.
NO having to pay people from England to come up and canvas for them does not say much for their support. Go and look at some of the reality , it is available on the web as well as Eddie Izzard and John Barrowman making tits of themselves.
In fact it was to make a modest (6bn) reduction in the first year.
And he changed his mind immediately after the Election?
Quite why the opposition has to pledge to stick to this or that spending plan is ludicrous. It was ludicrous for GO in 2010 and is ludicrous now for Lab. Why don't they just say that nothing is off the table and they will look at the situation when they are in a better position to do so, meanwhile setting out their own fully costed policies.
I mean it's not as though Lab have a credibility problem.
Is it?
You may be right. I hope not - but a YES would certainly be a watershed moment in the polling industry!
If it's a YES, how long would you estimate it would take from the YES to achieving agreed terms and something that could be presented to Parliament? (I'm thinking this could be alot harder than many anticipate as serious disagreements about currency, debt, inherited spending commitments, EU membership, defense, banking, blah blah cause problems).
It may be delayed , I personally doubt it , but it will happen.
The union is finished.
Cam says he will do something, but we don't believe him. And we want your vote on the premise that he won't do it. But of course as we can't prove a negative today then you will just have to trust us on this one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28393377
Of course a lot of people got a bit confused when there was a temporary setback in 2011/2012 - some of which turned out to be statistical blips since corrected by the ONS, but most of which was caused by unexpectedly high world commodity prices and the Eurozone crisis.
In fact he judged things absolutely correctly, as I pointed out repeatedly at the time. I further predicted at around Christmas 2012 that the UK economy would surprise on the upside in 2013.
Meanwhile the left and many academics were predicting the opposite.
I was right. That is because I was basing my forecast on observing the real world, not ideology like Paul Krugman or Blanchflower, or partisan attempts at point-scoring and blame-shifting like Ed Balls.
The union could go, or remain.
As well as the September vote, the way that devolution develops not in Scotland but England could be the next crucial aspect in whether the union has a long term future.
An English Parliament is a fair, equal, obvious solution. However, it would also properly emasculate Westminster. I fear the political pygmies will instead try and carve England up into shitty little regional assemblies.
The AIFE total is 1.43% of the national vote, and approx 2% of seats they actually stood in. Mike says they did "significant" damage to UKIP but doesn't say how much. Isam was claiming Mike said 1.5% but I think has now withdrawn that.
The AIFE vote breaks down into intentional bona fide votes for AIFE, genuine errors for UKIP and I hate Farage so much I will vote AIFE to spite him votes. I can't see that there is any strong case for allocating more than one third of the votes to the second category. My default assumption is that people are not as stupid as the argument assumes them to be and that a significant majority of votes cast for AIFE were intended to be for AIFE whether as category 1 or category 3.
Methodology ought to be relevant. Anyone with the power of concentration to get through Yougov's online polls is unlikely to be fooled by AIFE on the ballot paper so the Yougov result should have tacitly filtered out the category 2 voters. Conversely telephone polls would presumably catch a representative number of cat 2 thickos.
http://www.panelbase.com/news/SNPPollTables020903.pdf