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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling w
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named
I got into a good natured Twitter exchange last night with Lord Ashcroft about the seats that will be included in his next round of marginals polling due to be published in the next few days. In fact I needn’t have bothered because on the Saturday after the May 22nd local elections he said the following to a ConHome conference:
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http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/germany-pre-qualifying.html#comment-form
Shan't spoil it for anyone, but if you're the sort who sometimes watches highlights and sometimes doesn't, I'd advocate watching them this evening.
[Sunil suddenly clutches his head, screaming, as his Tebbit Chip kicks in...]
Aaaarrrrrgh!
[..before a more servile expression crosses his face:]
Must...be...loyal...to...England. Must...be...loyal...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8763115.stm
Something to do with immune system being weaker with age maybe?
Reported that 87 Palestinians have been killed today alone (with usual caveats over numbers coming from Palestinian sources) and now reports of 13 Israeli soldiers killed by Hamas.
Thanks, Mr. Jones. Not sure I like the idea of my immune system being weaker than it was, mind you. There are lots of worse lurgies out there than hay fever that I have come to expect my immune system to take on and defeat. Never mind, what the immune system struggles with whiskey can probably kill-off (well, its an idea that has worked so far). .
"Royal Mail readies for battle with shareholders
Revolt likely over £1.35m pay package for Moya Greene and the chief's warning that its universal service obligation is at risk"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/20/royal-mail-readies-battle-shareholders
Cricket looking threatening - weather in East London of a similar disposition.
I am told modern antihistamines are very good,but I prefer to suffer rather than take medication.
Fancy England to win this 4s tempting.
www.centralsomersetgazette.co.uk/Sarah-Yong-Lib-Dem.../story.html
The Lib Dem Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Somerton and Frome has announced she has stepped down from the race to take over ...
If he's brave (and if the facts are as they seem) he'll lay in to Putin in a big way. The Russians need to be forced to acknowledge their culpability, and hopefully the absurd adventurism that doesn't belong in this century will be halted.
I'm even more intrigued as to what Ed might say - as he seems to be resurrecting the policies of yesteryear (railways) he's become somewhat tricky to anticipate.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28393743
I can't quite believe Labour's breath taking hypocrisy in their response, it is like Baroness Scotland (Attorney General) never existed !
Early antihistamines had the serious disadvantage of making one drowsy, but research has improved the situation and with odd exceptions most of us don't experience such problems.
A good dose of whisky certainly dries the mouth and sipping it slowly, with one's nose over the glass gets some cleansing and drying fumes into the nose! My experience suggests at least a quadruple is the minimum required.
On another note, I must say that over the reshuffle there was almost no indication that they were the opposition in waiting - they didn't set the narrative at all.
I think Labour raised a fair point about what checks are made by the PM's team at No.10, following other recent issues including Andy Coulson.
I would make Root captain, he's going to be around for long time and bats at five which I would say is ideal for a captain. Prior has been excellent over the years but his time is up, time for Buttler. Alternatively, James Foster is possibly the best wicketkeeper in the game and a very good captain, maybe make him captain for a couple of years, Root vice captain with the long term aim of stepping him up later.
I mostly agree with your sentiments about Libya and Syria, but I'm happy to guess that this is a very different situation.
War is clearly a tricky thing, and you may be right. Personally I think that the fear of war is the mechanism most likely to actually engender them. As such we need to say boo to Putin's goose.
'Replacing all sense of logic with righteous hysteria against Gadaffi or Assad is one thing.'
So he should have just sat back and watched as thousands were slaughtered in Benghazi?
The opposing view is that a brilliant keeper like Foster can save around 20 runs/byes over five days and snaffle up the sort of chances that Prior has let slip in this Test. I blame Adam Gilchrist.
Rather splendid race, save the red bet. Hungary's only a week away, then there's about four weeks off until Spa.
On the other hand, one might hope that some sort of progress might have been achieved since the 7th century...
It's bloody depressing, really. Many classical texts survived the millennia because of the scholarship and love of knowledge that Islamic rulers displayed several hundred years ago.
Mr. HYUFD, you're quite right. Assad's a dictator whose soldiers have done unspeakable things. Yet his continued dictatorship is not the worst case scenario for Syria.
'Personally I now think it's highly unlikely that the rebels shot down the plane. The evidence would appear rather to point to the Ukrainian authorities'
And what evidence is that?
I see little choice is being presented to the Russian or rebel leadership and I expect them to continue to react in the rational manner they have so far. If the US and Kiev government continue on their current path there will be only one outcome and I am amazed very few European leaders have told the Americans to back off.
I'm flabbergasted by those who go to join ISIS. What runs through their heads? Most of the people they'll kill are Muslims. It makes as much sense as the Fourth Crusade, which actually attacked a Christian city (Byzantium).
Edited extra bit: Mr. T (2), according to... someone (I forget if it's Norwich or Gibbon) the black stone thingummyjig predates Islam. It was just another pagan magic stone thing, but (as with Christians essentially stealing Christmas and elements of Mithras-worship) it became part of Islamic 'tradition'.
Also, I thought it was said that Saudi Arabia backed, at least indirectly, ISIS?
How can I put this politely, these are the people who think George W Bush was a lefty.
They make Tap look like rational human being.
Footy Betting
I'm waiting patiently for the spread-betting firms to post up their season's points spreads for the Premier League and Championship. I suppose they in turn are waiting for as much as possible of the summer transfer business to be concluded.
Fans of Statto (aka Angus Loughran) may be interested to learn that he rates QPR with 32 points and Hull City with 33 points to finish as the bottom pair in the Premier League. These may be backed at best odds of 2/1 (various) and 3.2/1 (Ladbrokes) respectively for the drop. Although I'm inclined to agree, I'm decidedly less sure about his forecast of Leicester finishing in 10th place with 46 points. Should you share his confidence however, those nice people at Bet365 are offering best odds of 9/2 on the Foxes achieving a top half finish.
They occasionally ask me
1) Would I buy products from an Independent Scotland a) If the products were cheaper than Rump UK companies selling the products b) would I avoid using firms from an Independent Scotland
2) Should we be in a currency union with an Independent Scotland and should we share Sterling
3) Do I think an Independent Scotland would do better or worse
4) Ditto Rump UK
that sort of stuff.
They also asked if Alex Salmond was an animal would I think he'd be, ditto for all the other leaders, you'll be delighted to know, for Dave, I chose a panda.
My main bet will be Utd to finish above Liverpool but not sure yet how to approach it, like you I will wait for the spread companies to price up.
Jensen deserves to be publicly waterboarded for ruining Hamilton's race
Edited extra bit: last year Williams scored 5 points in the whole season. Quite the comeback. I do wonder if they might get second this year.
If you're prepared to expose your ears to something from infowars (thankfully a Brit, not Alex Jones), there's some fairly concise commentary on the following video too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMgIpC-bCfQ
Has anyone used matchbook.com?
A bit like Betfair, but with only 1% commission
https://www.matchbook.com/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28389816
Wasn't that the new labour trick.
2. When do you expect this intervention to take place (by) and what form would this intervention take?
I also think people have this ISIS thing round the wrong way. They originated in Iraq not Syria. The Iraqi government quite happily let them and associated Sunni radicals troupe across the border to fight in Syria thinking they'd just get rid of them. And now they are back. In fact I reported back in April on this forum, weeks before this current phase of activity began that they were going back across the border.
Only a fraction of those who are doing the fighting as part of the Sunni uprising are actually part of ISIS. This is an alliance of convenience between Sunni tribes, Baathists and ISIS. ISIS can be thought of as your Waffen SS & special police units. That alliance has had plenty of arguments already. Under the Americans the likes of ISIS were very firmly put on the back foot as part of the Sunni Awakening a few years back. Former enemies during that phase are now working together.
Finally and I'll say it again. ISIS biggest source of funding is themselves and their own 'legitimate businessman club' activities.
Celebratory gunfire and shouts could be heard in Gaza City after the claim was made.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28392636
Yes, I've heard of Matchbook but wouldn't use them personally - I've seen them promoted aggressively on betting sites which puts me off. Plus I rather take the view that if Betfair, Betdaq and Ladbrokes all believe that it costs 5% comm'n on winning bets to operate an exchange, then it probably can't be run at 20% of that level of commission.
How does the expression go? If it sounds too good to be true ..........
On a slower news day, I think the #10 spinners would have had to be working overtime. I wonder if Clarke will provide further "helpful" comments in the run up to the GE now that he isn't tied to the reservation.
Stokes needs some runs, just hope he and Broad play their natural gamr.
Assad is no obstacle to ISIS, he has failed to stop them establishing a decent pockets of territory. They've done more fighting against other insurgents than they've done against Assad's troops. Thats one reason why Al Qaeda came out against them, they also suggested ISIS was doing Assad's work for him.
If you want to deal with a situation you engage with it.
Agreed on Maliki. Guy is a joke and good luck to him, I'd not bother. The man is effectively an elected dictator in his approach to the Sunni minority.
In the. Euros Ukip scored 27.5%
Mike believes AIFE cost them 1.5%
This would mean 29% intended to vote ukip
ICM had Ukip at 25%, YouGov at 27%
These numbers are used to rebuff claims by Kippers that ICM and YG understate UKIP "they were the most accurate at the euros"
But if Mike is correct, and Ukip were denied 1.5% by AIFE, then those pollsters were no more accurate than TNS(31%) or Opinium (32%)
So either Mike was wrong about the AIFE effect, or it is wrong to claim ICM. And YG were closest with the Euro results
So to believe ICM & YG. Are the most accurate in regards to ukip, and writing off Opinium and TNS, while forgetting about AIFE could lead to bad bets next GE
The only possible course in Syria for intervention is some arms supplies to moderates like the FSA, no direct action should be taken against Assad
Additionally, I think you are making a mistake allocating it all - for instance, I believe @Alanbrooke was considering voting AIFE because he didn't like UKIP or any of the major parties. So there are some voters for AIFE that were not mistaken votes for UKIP.
However, I'm always dubious about arguments that X votes for a party were in error, so I'd question the assumption of the 1.5% anyway.
Again the West had its chance earlier on before the extremists got in, they washed their hands and indeed stymied other countries doing it. What people forget is that the Syrian insurgency didn't start off with Islamic militants all pre-packaged and in-country. It was a peoples' uprising.
I see the Dutch Air Force is on its way to collect the bodies and is landing into what is a contested region to do so. Within the Dutch government there is reportedly a thread of thinking that isn't content to let this one go passively. Whether something of an active ever sees the light of day is another story.
It depends on your definition of cost, I think it's wrong to assume everyone who voted AIFE made a mistake and were really Kippers.
Pollsters asked people others, if you look at that, both ICM and YouGov got the others (excluding the top 4 right) 16% vs 16.31%
They weren't just asking about the top 4, the greens, the nats and the bnp, they asked for others.
Additionally, the ICM final phone poll had UKIP on 26% (it was the online ICM poll that had them on 25%)
To understand polling (and it keeps on adapting) look at the overall trend, a while back pollsters were generally underestimating UKIP, now they're generally overestimating them (as we saw at the Euros and Newark)
I think Mike's other metric for judging accuracy isn't just to get the most accurate share for one party, but the spread.
Mike Smithson
@LewisBotfield See chart showing final EP2014 polls gap between top 3 parties & what happened. ICM & YouGov best
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BskFSv9IIAAhLaj.jpg
The other thing I would say is, it was disappointing we only had one phone pollster doing any polls on the Euro.
Whether ISIS would have taken over had Assad been toppled who knows, it is not in our direct interest to topple Assad
The Dutch will obviously not intervene militarily against the Russians, though increased sanctions are on the cards
Presumably Mike is (if you represent his views correctly) rounding up and then saying that virtually every single vote for AIFE was by mistake for Ukip. A very bold assumption surely? The BNP got over 1% of the vote on their own merits as it were and without being mistaken for anyone else. Why shouldn't most, or at least half, of AIFE votes have been intended for AIFE? I think given that voters put the x on the ballot paper the onus is on Mike to show that they did not intend to vote for AIFE. Evidence for this might be e.g.that they were unknown to the public, did no canvassing, had no policies etc etc.
Absolutely they voted Maliki, they can be stuck with him. He can't even keep the Shias onside, there has been outbursts of factional violence in recent weeks amongst Shia groups and Maliki turned the army on those that didn't like him.
Which is still spending - and as far as anyone can tell will be paid for by borrowing.
So they will put up taxes and put up borrowing and put up spending.
What iam saying is, that if Mike, not me remember, is right with that 1.5%, it can't make sense to say ICM and YG were the most accurate, because you would have to add 1.5% to UKIPs score! and that would next they were not the most accurate
Mike makes both claims, but one contradicts th either so both can't be right