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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR
YouGov poll finding on more women being in the cabinet pic.twitter.com/mGRDtJiNr7
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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100280491/bedroom-tax-u-turn-is-nick-clegg-actually-trying-to-remind-people-why-they-hate-him/
Not sure they are members of the British Polling Council however ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10978470/Poll-David-Camerons-reshuffle-boosts-Tories.html
The current bun is out, Open golf, Lords test match and some rather fast horseless carriages bimbling around a German forest ....
And to cap it all I'm cooking rack of lamb of lunch .... that will also involve a trip to the wine cellar.
A quiet Sunday at home .... I've had worse.
As for polls .... trolls dolls and chocolate rolls .... away with you for the day.
Abysmal timing (not that there's ever a good time) with computer issues. Going to leave a few accounts untouched for a few days, just in case. If there's no more problems then I'll return to normal service for Hungary.
I was going to simply not post a pre-race piece or put it up here [if that wouldn't be considered obnoxious], but think having it as a comment to the pre-qualifying piece makes more sense. Assuming I can find a tip, of course.
As this is a stronger Labour VI, we expect that to reflect in the subsidiaries.
On questions regarding EDM's leadership and the Labour VI response only:
47% of Labour VI say it is clear what he stands for whilst 45% say it is not:
22% says he is a strong leader, 33% say weak and 40% say neither
41% says he is decisive and 35% say indecisive, rest DK or don't care.
If he's 15th he could be up to 10th by the end of lap 1. If from the pit lane he may struggle to make up more than a couple of places (but would have the advantage of altering the set-up).
So, that's 20th or pit lane.
Edited extra bit: that's via Twitter, not yet 'properly' confirmed, but a gearbox change and penalty was noted as possible yesterday.
55% reckoned the reshuffle was done for presentational reasons (style over substance)
56% were glad Gove went
59% believed it was a step in the right direction
So, 2/3 pieces were actually positive for the Government...
My first chance to comment for a few days. My impression of the re-shuffle is that it has brought forward a tranche of 40-somethings with whom I don't have the least in common. I read about Nicky Morgan and she comes over as suffocatingly "nice" rather than nasty.
On the other hand, I saw Esther McVey's dreadful interview where she was berating the poor interviewer for not allowing her to say her party piece and taking one part of the unemployment figures out of context. Clearly, it's a dreadful hotbed of Leftie journalism on Sky these days.
More controversially, I've long been of the view that the Cameron-Osborne relationship is in private far worse than in public and indeed I suspect Cameron is trying to ensure Osborne doesn't have such a firm grip on Cabinet and the Party in advance of a leadership election.
Should have backed the Saffers tbh but it was madness the SL price was less than SA price.
Betting PostTipping Magnussen at 3.05 for a top 6 finish, hedged at 1.5 (I'll need someone to let me know whether the hedge gets matched, unless he does finish top 6, obviously, in which case it clearly will).
Not backing this myself, as mentioned below, for annoying technical reasons. (Same thing happened at Spain).
I'll put up the 'piece' shortly, as a comment to the pre-qualifying article.
Esther McVey still seems like a presenter rather than a politician. Most politicians are uncomfortable "off piste", but she is petrified, and comes across badly for quite a large section of the public.
Being easier on the eye than many others, may not be the advantage Cam was looking for unless she improves rapidly.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/germany-pre-qualifying.html
Do hope someone puts up a hedge on Magnussen...
I just want to know if the 1.5 hedge on Magnussen gets matched.
Edited extra bit: as an aside, Germany is the first race that counts as the second half of the season. If I do a mid-season review it'll cover Australia to the UK. If the Russian Grand Prix is cancelled it'll be two halves of 9 races, if not, a first of 9 and a second of 10.
Another interesting one was "Which leader do you trust most, Cameron or Miliband?" 32% chose DC, 27% EM, 34% neither, 7% DK. Lots of questions on policy areas without surprises - DC trusted most on the economy, defence and law and order, EM most on NHS and schools. Overall neither showing a decisive vote-switching advantage, especially as it's so polarised - 3% of Labour voters trust DC most, 0% of Tories trust EM most. That's another indication of why plugging the leadership question isn't shifting the polls.
Vinny: lol. Welcome to the forum, but you need to be a bit more subtle in your prejudices if you want to persuade anyone...
Over on Lib Dem Voice they have published in its entirety a speech by Tim Farron.
I should be interested to hear how non-Lib Dem liberals react to it, if they have the time to read it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28390245
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2698719/MICHAEL-FABRICANT-What-REALLY-happened-foul-mouthed-Speaker-told-loved-colleague-f-Bercow-go.html
Sounds like he is even more unpleasant than I imagined.
Thinking about the wider leadership teams in the main
parties, the cabinet and shadow cabinet, which party do
you think has the stronger team?
Cons:38 (ConVI 91%, LAB VI;8%; LDVI:45%; UKIPVI:44%)
LAB:25 (ConVI:1%; LABVI: 66%; LDVI: 14%; UKIPVI: 17%)
DK: 38; (ConVI: 8%; LABVI: 26%; LDVI: 41%; UKIPVI:40%)
If I've got this right the principles are that Germany should stop buying gas and France should stop selling warships, but Britain shouldn't do anything that would be bad for the City of London.
Also the EU is supposed to make a relationship with Ukraine, but obviously they can't let Ukraine actually _join_ the EU because the Tories don't like enlargement any more, as it would potentially let in more immigrants.
If I've got this right the principles are that Germany should stop buying gas and France should stop selling warships, but Britain shouldn't do anything that would be bad for the City of London.
Also the EU is supposed to make a relationship with Ukraine, but obviously they can't let Ukraine actually _join_ the EU because the Tories don't like enlargement any more, as it would potentially let in more immigrants.
Edmund, you know perfectly well that Peebie Tories are always right about everything and everybody else deserves a good hiding.
Mind you, you're not as bad as Nick Palmer supposing that anyone comes on here on a mission to persuade rather than merely ventilating. Keep working on it!
It only seems like a few weeks ago Iraq was on the verge of being overrun by the marauding barbaric mob.
ISIS issued a demand and a deadline, stating Christians could convert, pay protection money, or be killed. As a result, those remaining have fled.
Obviously it would be madness for Labour to follow as all the 2010 Lib Dem -. Labour switchers are probably overwhemingly in the 38%
Anyway, that's me for to-day. See you all to-morrow, DV...
"One certainly anticipates that UKIP support will fall from the levels it’s currently at, which is around 15 per cent. It’s been running around levels way above 2010 and we have to remember this happens against a backdrop – already in 2010, we had an all-time record level of support for parties other than the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. The hold of our conventional parties on the electorate has never been weaker, and therefore the argument that one hears from many a Tory is: ‘well, you may not like us terribly much but you hate Labour even more, therefore you’re going to vote for us.’ I mean frankly for today’s electorate it just isn’t going to wash with enough people. They actually have got to be pulled back positively.
We’re looking at an electorate that’s more willing to experiment, even for Westminster elections. There just seems to be enough people out there, for whom at the end of the day. I mean again, something that’s very very different is that we’ve probably never had a period when all three Westminster party leaders have been basically unpopular. There’s always been somebody to shine, at least a degree of popularity. We have at the moment two deeply unpopular party leaders and a PM who’s seen as no more than treading water, as average. He’s basically popular amongst Tories."
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/five-minutes-with-john-curtice-part-3/?utm_content=bufferbad8a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
I was never an Obama evangelist, like some deluded souls that thought he would overturn the US political system overnight, but he was clearly the better candidate each time.
But he seems totally lost on what to do about world issues, he was bounced into Libya by Clinton (who was briefed by the spooks that it had to happen and weeks of indecision) and then was bounced over his red line on Syria only to reverse ferret.
And I'm not saying he should go around like Bush Jnr looking to get involved in wars all over the world, but could you imagine Reagan reaction to this basically going "well somebody has been a bit naughty, what a terrible tragedy, next question"...
If I've got this right the principles are that Germany should stop buying gas and France should stop selling warships, but Britain shouldn't do anything that would be bad for the City of London.
Also the EU is supposed to make a relationship with Ukraine, but obviously they can't let Ukraine actually _join_ the EU because the Tories don't like enlargement any more, as it would potentially let in more immigrants.
I was referring to the media coverage of the deaths of 298 innocent men, women and children. The pictures of personal items strewn about the crash site and the heart rending stories affecting those family members left behind.
I have no idea what you are waffling about or why.
But if Yokel or others do have more info, it'd be interesting. What's happning in Syria while all this is going on? Pooh, I think my total "smear" was to quote what she said, note that it was an indirect quote (so might not be accurate) and add "Hmm." If that's what you call nasty, you must find reading PB a very trying experience. But yes, I'd feel the same about a Muslim Minister who brought his faith into the job description. I'm fine with ministers believing whatever they like about religion - who knows for sure who's right, after all? But we are de facto a largely secular society and Ministers do not represent lots of us when they bring their specific religion to bear on their intended actions. (Prince Charles was in effect expressing a similar reservation when he said he'd like to be a defender of faiths, rather than "the faith". )
You might have felt it, but you wouldn't have said it because we all know how difficult it is where faiths are concerned , except of course if its the Church OF England and a Tory MP where its open season..
+1.52 Eng/+44.57 India/+0.78 Draw
Looking at the draw price of 5.1/5.2 and it seems short but dunno whether to lay it... hmm.
(the North where the Kurds are doing the fighting and certainly where some of the most consistent shooting is going on, around Tikrit, Ramadi, Samarra and Muqdadiya where the Iraqi army and Shia milita are) where combat continues with no significant advances either way. If you take a look at a map they'll suggest a crescent of a frontline nearest Baghdad.
Actions, however, are occuring in a wider number of areas including out as far as the Eastern border with Iran.
ISIS themselves have gone back to an old tradition of sending out the car bombs into the capital, again something predicted as they go about harassment exercises but thats a far as action direct on Baghdad is going for the immediate time.
That said, many human rights rulings seem to vary from perplexing to deranged. Prisoners getting the vote is insane.
Mr. Urquhart, Obama's stance on various foreign policy matters could be seen as soft, but also legitimate. However, on Syria he has been utterly pathetic. He stated the red line, consensus was (and the US view was) that it was crossed, and he didn't do anything.
As an aside, I'm astounded Assad's not merely survived but seems to actually be gaining ground. If Gadaffi hadn't broadcast his intention to commit genocide I wonder if he'd still be ruling Libya.
No of wickets per day
9, 7, 8,
Unless less than 6 fall today it is very unlikely to be a draw.
First session wickets decide the test just about. England need 3+ . I don't like their price at all.
I take it from what you say that the Iraqi forces have regrouped and organised some what (used in a very loose sense, as I doesn't sound like command and control is very strong) and that the Kurds are obviously holding up their area.
In your opinion, are we in for a long drawn out bloody stalemate for the foreseeable future or will ISIS (with the supposed money / captured resources) look to push on at some point?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28373344
A really interesting and revealing article.
'The Tories - the party that wants to take away your human rights. Great slogan '
If it proves popular then only a matter of time before Clegg jumps on the bandwagon.
So it's hardly too surprising, on that alone, that more people think the reshuffle has made ministerial team weaker than stronger. Nor is it too surprising that so very few people have an opinion on the question at all. This also links into the question of whether or not the women promoted are there on merit or just because Cameron wants more women in government - hard for people to honestly say that they think they are there on merit if they've never really heard of them. Likewise for the males promoted too I would guess.
It always amuses me when opinion pollsters ask people questions that they're extremely unlikely to hold any real opinions on. I've not heard so much as one person in my circle of friends, family or work colleagues mention the reshuffle as a topic of conversation.
In reality in terms of the end result of improving standards and knowledge in our youngsters it will be years until we know whether the real huge changes in curriculum and examination Gove has made are a success.
I suspect he is aware of this but can't resist the opportunity after the humbling demotion Gove received last week. I suspect though if Cameron uses the obvious assets Gove has cleverly in the campaign, his party might laugh a little more quietly.
Recently ISIS have seized a Syrian gas field, and an Iraqi refinery. The question is, who would buy oil from ISIS and thus help to fund them?
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/isis-seizes-gas-field-in-syria-defeats-iraq-forces-near-tikrit/article/391089
Sadly, I doubt they will lack for customers. Israel has reportedly already been buying Iraqi oil smuggled through Turkey from Kirkuk (that has been captured by pro-independent Kurdistan forces): http://nsnbc.me/2014/06/27/israel-buys-smuggled-iraqi-oil-joins-u-s-push-for-kurdish-state/
The war has been quite equally balanced, with a major battle over Tikrit, which is not under either side's overall control. ISIS continues to commit horrific war crimes wherever it goes. Iraq is being helped by Iran and Russia (they have been carrying out airstrikes with Russian jets), ISIS is a Saudi proxy (Prince Abdul Rachman al-Faisal is the supreme commander of ISIS), so they are being supported by them: http://nsnbc.me/2014/06/15/isis-unveiled-identity-insurgency-syria-iraq/
The US will not intervene to do anything against ISIS -ISIS are fulfilling US strategic ambitions in the region -namely the balkanisation of Iraq to prevent Iran's 'Shia crescent'. They haven't even delivered the F-16s that Iraq has bought and paid for.
I imagine Lib and Lab will base their opposition on the effect withdrawal will have on other foreign governments, rather that on the fact that you can't trust the British parliament and courts to protect your human rights.
When I become dictator I shall do so on the back of the overwhelming electoral success of my party -the fluffy cuddly bunny rabbit wouldn't hurt a fly growth and progress party for the psychologically normal. Of course the usual useful idiots will be among the first against the wall.
However, I think he makes sense when he talks about housing and (much less importantly, it's just an area I've worked in) broadband provision. I'm less sure about the practicalities of a living wage, but can't say I've given it much thought.
Combating climate change leaves me cold (ahem!), especially given Farron's hyperbole on the subject. I think energy security is far more important, and we can go some way to address greenhouse gas emissions as a worthy byproduct of a focus on our energy security.
In summary, a curate's egg of a speech.
Churchill proposed the ECHR. Leftie !
We have Obama's cowardice (personally I would call it the remnants of a conscience) to thank for the fact that Syria is still under the control its secular dictator, not under ravening wahhabi hordes. Do you think that any citizen of Syria would swap and live in 'liberated' Libya?
'Even the Tories will not "implement" this. Its all bluster.
Churchill proposed the ECHR. Leftie !'
Not even Churchill envisaged that key judgments would be made by totally unqualified loons.
I expect we will hear much huffing and puffing from world leaders, but will see no tangible action from anyone.
Actually Reagan was a pragmatist with his conciliatory moves to the Soviet Union and his biggest regret was sending the Marines into Lebanon.
UK Political Dynasties: Labour have the Blairs, Benns, Kinnocks. Tories have Johnsons, Rees-Moggs. Who do the Lib Dems have? Any multiple generations of MPs/prospective MPs yet?
EDIT: Not sure the Rees-Moggs count, but you get the point.
Beveridge would probably think he'd created a monster if he could see what's become of his safety net
Eng +11.02, Draw +54.07, Draw -28.68
Draw back into 6.4/6.6 - nothing has happened...
England go from 1.8 -> 2.2 on a single 4 to India... riiiiiiiiiight
http://www.nhs.uk/chq/Pages/2567.aspx?CategoryID=68&SubCategoryID=154
http://www.nhs.uk/chq/Pages/890.aspx?CategoryID=68&SubCategoryID=154
If only real life was like govt policy eh?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2681287/NHS-blows-millions-boob-jobs-facelifts-Taxpayers-foot-bill-cosmetic-surgery-doubles-ten-years.html
Lefty takes state propaganda over real life, nothing changes
Are you saying the people in the article don't exist? They didn't get free cosmetic surgery? Jeremy hunt and the tax alliance are lying?
Presumably there are some people out there who have managed to lie their way into getting treatment they shouldn't be getting for various reasons, but that's a constant feature of healthcare systems. A policy wonk like Beveridge would certainly have expected it.
The fact is that if you say you are depressed you can get a nose job/boob job/tattoo removed on the Nhs for free, and so people do just that
http://sultanknish.blogspot.co.il/2014/07/its-another-death-to-jews-weekend.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+FromNyToIsraelSultanRevealsTheStoriesBehindTheNews+(from+NY+to+Israel+Sultan+Reveals+The+Stories+Behind+the+News
The take from Israel.
'In a special interview on CNN Wednesday night, Economics Minister Naftali Bennett said that incidents such as the killing of four children on a Gaza beach earlier Wednesday were entirely the fault of Hamas – and were no accident. “I think it is terrible that Hamas is butchering its own children like this.... Hamas is conducting massive self-genocide, taking women and children and placing them next to missile launchers."'
http://tinyurl.com/pburmz5
'I think it is terrible that Hamas is butchering its own children like this'
Let that one roll around your brain for a few minutes, destroying cells, bursting blood vessels & burning out synapses on the journey.
FWIW, here's a piece looking at some of the numbers the Mail used in that piece.
https://fullfact.org/health/daily_mail_nhs_cosmetic_surgery_doubled-33759