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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove
What’s marked here is the readiness of those polled across the spectrum to back Cameron. Also note the contrast between the Gove doing good job numbers and the reshuffle finding. You would expect them to be closer.
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Perhaps you should issue a monthly top ten ?
Any inspired thoughts out there ?
This is not a whinge, it is recognition that Gove had completely lost the media argument for his reforms and failed to make the case in the court of public opinion as opposed to the House of Commons where he was dominant over a poor shadow. These are major failings in a politician, particularly a radical one, and they make the alleged decision by the tories to have Gove fronting their media in the run up to the next election....interesting.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/dave-the-radical-feminist-gets-a-helping-hand-from-harriet/
Love this bit..
"The session ended with no rowdiness or euphoria. All was as quiet as the Dignitas clinic when Faure’s Requiem starts to play. Which may happen quite soon for weary old Ed.
You've been warned, Ed....
I agree with your other post that the fact that Osborne and Cameron were willing to do this to one of their closest chums for political advantage shows a ruthlessness and focus that Cameron in particular only tends to show when he really means it. The tories are now on a war footing. Labour....not so much.
EICIPM
David Cameron has been presented with the proposals that would mean Parliament decided what constitutes a breach of human rights.
Strasbourg rulings on issues like votes for prisoners have angered many Tories.
Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, sacked in the reshuffle, is thought to have warned against the planned change.
BBC political editor Nick Robinson said a report written by a working group of Conservative lawyers predicts the so-called British Bill of Rights could force changes in the way the Strasbourg court operates."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28339686
In view of some of the illogical decisions made by and on behalf of the ECHR recently, surely this will find favour among the electorate - but will the LibDems try to block it?
No wonder the level of UK productivity has been so weak .... at least in Scrap Inc.
Gove's new job is of course simply to break up the coalition - hence the LDs timing of their whinge about an unfair tax they've been able to live with these last 3 years and more. Cammo can then produce the Bills he wants in his next manifesto, while the Mail and the Murdoch press berate Ed-Will-Never-Be for objecting to a snap election.
From what I've read on the subject this morning, it is Danny Alexander leading the charge against the subsidy - I might be mistaken, but isn't he an orange booker?
It appears Alexander isn't convinced aspects of the policy are working effectively especially in relation to the disabled and their carers.
The political aspects of the policy have also been lost - bedroom tax is the common currency rather than spare room subsidy just as poll tax was to community charge. Further the prospect of eviction notices being served, under the glare of the media, to the disabled isn't an image the Coalition should be encouraging in the coming months.
The devil will be in the upcoming detail and a number of cases are already in the courts but that will largely be lost upon a single report of bailiffs attempting to remove beds, oxygen bottles and other medical equipment.
Thanks for your earlier comments.
Nevertheless, good to see. Regardless of the moral rights and wrongs of the policy, the fact is that it simply doesn't work in practice, the Law of Unintended Consequences playing large. Just an absolute dog of a policy that was not thought through by its pioneers.
They complain about the pace of change but personally I agree with Gove, we have waited too long to get things done and say what you like about him he has made things happen.
Gove is a free spirit who basically doesn't care who he upsets and that is a lot of people whose toes he has trod on. His unpopularity is false in some ways because I doubt most people really are aware of exactly what he has done, most of the arguments in the media have been side issues. He hasn't been skilled in dealing with them in the media, either because he thought he was bombproof, or he didn't care.
If Cameron uses him carefully in the campaign Gove could be a major asset, going head to head against any opponent in debate he is as formidable as you will see in a modern politician, he really is capable of making a mess of many of those Labour front benchers. So sharp and quick witted, I don't there would be many takers to go up against him
When I posted on here that the Liberal support for the BT was collapsing and would soon be removed, you told me I was wrong.
I suspect both Cameron and Clegg must be thinking that it may benefit both parties to end the coalition ahead of the party conferences, so that both parties are free to discuss their different policies ahead of the election. We have already heard that the Lib Dems want to make changes to the bedroom tax. I suspect that they also want to change other policies, possibly university tuition fees, which is causing a large liability to be built up on government accounts.
It would be possible for the Tories to continue between September and May on their own, with the Lib Dems agreeing to support key legislation.
If they continue the coalition right to the end, they will be trying to continue joint government, while also campaigning by stating their different policies. I doubt either party would think that this would be a wise move, as they will want to provide a clear message to the electorate about their policies.
Essentially subsidy will be withdrawn if the Local Authority (Or whoever is responsible for housing) cannot find a house/flat with less bedrooms.
This was very different to the Daily Mirror splash "Clegg plans to axe bedroom tax"
I have a dinner engagement at a posh restaurant in Mayfair today.
After that I will be watching the Open golf championship on TV.
So unless something outrageous happens, like Clegg dropping his trousers in Whitehall, I won't be around much today.
I stand to be corrected but you will hunt in vain.
I've always had misgivings about this policy. Looks fine and dandy on paper as all policies do but then they run up against the reality of the real difficulties of real people and the disconnect between ministers and senior civil servants and normal human beings is laid bare.
Alexander and the LDs supported the bill and kept quiet over the interim years - lets not dress this up as anything more than yet another distancing initiative.
But as you indicated if Deep Orange Booker Alexander is the driving force there has to be more to the shift than just distancing. Perchance the yellow peril, faced with some evidence, think it's better to amend the policy rather than await a car crash.
The most charitable among us might even ponder that the LibDems were saving the Conservatives from themselves ....
Titter ....
Of course if Gove can help Dave win the election he can be rewarded with the CoTE role when GO broadens his CV by moving to FS. As we have seen with GO, being a great CoTE can improve your ratings no end. Gove may be carried aloft through the streets of Doncaster yet.
Off topic
Golf - on Cabrera e/w
Cricket - green pitch, England at 2.66
But when I pointed out that Farron had removed party support, and that the Liberals were thus preparing for a reverse ferret you told me that Farron had no such power.
I assume that the Tory conference will at last feature the unveiling of Cameron's renegotiation objectives - there has to be a reason why they're still not clearly stated, less than 3 years before we're supposed to be voting on the Treaty ratified by 27 countries to approve them. The tricky thing is that they'll be full of this sort of stuff, which makes Eurosceptical gestures without actually changing things.
A fine few days of sport ahead.
The soothing tones of Peter Alice at the Open and the thwack of leather and wood at Lords - Deep joy.
Meanwhile another "trust" problem for the LDs image with voters and they re-position themselves on the sides of welfare claimants. Not a wise move. More asterisk ratings?
Any parent sending their kid to an untested "Free School" run by a rightwing ideologue is being nothing less than reckless with their kids education.
Labour will allow the deranged FRee School policy to wither on the vine post election. They should deliver the coup de grace on day 1 in office but we know how politics works.
The poorest have been taken out of tax.
The richest are paying more tax, the tax rates and the closing of loopholes ensuring that.
This Govt. has overseen a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor. It seems to be somewhat less intensely relaxed than its predecessor about the filthy rich.....
The middle face paying more under Labour.
Expect this message to be hammered for the next nine months.
The Farron post was on my part entirely correct. The President of the Liberal Democrats is a largely superannuated honorific position and most certainly does not have the power of veto on party policy let alone LibDem policy positions within government.
Please do not ascribe to me views I do not hold.
http://www.garethepps.org.uk/2014/07/17/why-the-bedroom-tax-must-be-abolished-not-tinkered-with/
Thus, I think, the poll is measuring something that does not have a substantial reality...
Following the colonisation late last year of the southern counties by the European sub species of the Swallowtail butterfly , we are now getting news of the arrival in Eastern counties of another species the Yellow Legged aka Scarce Swallowtail . This species has extended its range in the last few years from Eastern Europe into Sweden Denmark Finland and the Netherlands and has now arrived in the UK for the first time apart from one solitary record back in 1952 .
It's very good of them of course but I rather think they should be turning their attention to the process of electing the new LotO .... I'm sure Ed will pass on the phone number of the secretary of the leader of UNITE.
Is "Yellow Legged" the leader of the insurrection ??
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/is-ed-miliband-a-victim-of-everyday-sexism/
This surely is a massive boost for the "Yes" campaign ? *innocent face*
Widely available @ 60/1 plus.
Today's the start of the Test.
You know the rules, and you know the punishment for violating the rules.
Were it not for the inconveniently-timed referendum on Scottish Independence this September I would argue that we should hold the general election in two months time and get it over with.
This long drawn out campaign is going to be absurd.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28339686
Conscious uncoupling?
"My understanding is there was an argument inside government between the two halves of the coalition and that argument has gone on for three months. So what the coalition cannot decide in three months this House has to decide in one day. This seems to me entirely improper because of the role of Parliament – we have three roles:
One is to scrutinise legislation, one is to prevent unintended consequences, and one is to defend the freedom and liberty of our constituents.
This undermines all three and we should oppose this motion."
A pity there are not more MPs like him in the Commons.
My golf betting is normally restricted to the four majors for the very sound reason that it's reliably pretty awful - Adam Scott excepted.
But I do like a little tickle ....
It just can't be done.
However the HRA has what is mostly an image problem. The fact is, most opposition revolves around a handful of cases, when the majority of claims brought under the HRA are attempts (whether good ones or not) to prevent the arbitrary or excessive use of power by the state.
Is the issue finally settled ?
All this because of few idiotic decisions like those about giving prisoners the vote? It is madness and frankly not grown up government.
There are problems with the make up and competence of the Court in Strasburg. Some of the judgments, as our own Supreme Court have pointed out, verge on incoherence. Surely this is where the energy needs to be spent. Alternatively we can positively encourage the Supreme Court approach where they have regard to but do not think themselves bound by prior decisions of the Strasburg Court, possibly by amendment of the Human Rights Act.
But at the moment, having sacked some very competent lawyers who were opposed, the Tories are in danger of making fools of themselves.
Lords pitch a tad greenish. Pace bowler heaven.
Toss winner to bowl.
Looking "cool" does not work in the long run.
However, luckily, I think it's all politics.
If the Tories lose, it won't matter.
If they win, and go into coalition, then the EU referendum will be the red line and anything ECHR related can be ditched on the pyre of the Lib Dems.
If they win outright, they'll have an EU referendum to organise, and "it's all the same, isn't it?". By which I mean that it isn't, but that's how it will play.
It is simply not conceivable - and not sensible politics either - to withdraw from a Convention that was largely written by British lawyers.
Churchillian brand of Toryism would not be acceptable to the modern Tories who are beginning to resemble the Tea Party.
I don't think the British lawyers drafting the ECHR planned for it to be used to give prisoners the vote.
On the LD bedroom tax revision proposal ("only if there is alternative accommodation available"), isn't the snag that the availability of suitable alternative accommodation changes literally every day? How would it work in practice at the borderline? Family A is told "pay more or move". They look around, find somewhere smaller at a lower rent, and prepare to move. Family B next door are told the same thing. But family A have taken the last available smaller property. So B is exempt.
The rational strategy for A in this situation is to play for time, arguing that the alternative is unsuitable because it's upstairs and someone is disabled or there's no public transport to work or some other more or less valid reason. While they argue, B comes under pressure to move there instead, which would relieve the pressure on A. But next week, a property becomes available, and B isn't exempt after all anyway, and so on. Council officials will spend many happy hours trying to sort it out, costing lots of money. Is it workable at all?
I feel pretty upbeat about the Reshuffle - I don't care how many wimmin there are in Cabinet, they're there to do a good job not to top up the Ovary Quota
I guess the bad boy made them do it and then ran away...
Next ....
The problems are not so much the Convention itself but the way that some of the judgments have been reached by lawyers not versed in the English legal tradition and not what we would consider proper lawyers in any case. Plus they tend not to follow their own precedents or give inconsistent views etc. But these are issues which can be dealt with and a number of senior lawyers have suggested ways of doing so in a manner which is more subtle and feline than full-on confrontation.