"Though leadership whispers are again circling around Ed Miliband, it’s hard to see anyone replacing him this side of an election. And once that election is out of the way, and assuming it is lost, by that stage Chuka Umunna will be back from the Balearics, and other candidates such as Stella Creasy and Rachel Reeves will be in a position to throw their hats in the ring.
But if Ed Miliband were to fall under a bus, or get ensnared in his Rubik's Snake, then Andy Burnham could well be the guy to watch."
Oh please please let it be Andy Burnham.
All the people mentioned in that article are much worse than Ed
And it is worth pointing out that Cameron remains quite popular with 38% support, despite the posts on here rarely saying anything positive.
That was before the wheels fell off over Farages BBC interview silly
Radical Scots independents forcing him to seek refuge in a boozer isnt going to play very well with your average UKIP supporter is it?
So now you have roughly the same kind of number of councillors as the Greens. Albeit with less MPs than the Greens can manage. Just how big a majority do you think a Rawmarsh councillor presages on your glorious march to electoral domination?
Clearly it's not just Farage with a Kilroy Silk reality problem.
Some probably do, some don't. What about families where one parent is the biological parent, and the other isn't? You seem to think that should be enough to count for a proper marriage. But as Neil points out, a lesbian couple can get a donor of one form or another. The reality here is that you are trying to twist and grasp to come up with some logical reasons for opposing something that you are emotionally uncomfortable with: men being romantically involved with other men. That's fine - it's probably evolutionary, and you shouldn't be made to feel a bigot over it. But it's really not something policy should be based on.
"Though leadership whispers are again circling around Ed Miliband, it’s hard to see anyone replacing him this side of an election. And once that election is out of the way, and assuming it is lost, by that stage Chuka Umunna will be back from the Balearics, and other candidates such as Stella Creasy and Rachel Reeves will be in a position to throw their hats in the ring.
But if Ed Miliband were to fall under a bus, or get ensnared in his Rubik's Snake, then Andy Burnham could well be the guy to watch."
Oh please please let it be Andy Burnham.
All the people mentioned in that article are much worse than Ed
And it is worth pointing out that Cameron remains quite popular with 38% support, despite the posts on here rarely saying anything positive.
Incorrect. That Cammie is more popular than the tory brand is noted on here quite a bit and on threads. It's one of those tricky facts his rebels have trouble getting their heads around.
That was before the wheels fell off over Farages BBC interview silly
Radical Scots independents forcing him to seek refuge in a boozer isnt going to play very well with your average UKIP supporter is it?
So now you have roughly the same kind of number of councillors as the Greens. Albeit with less MPs than the Greens can manage. Just how big a majority do you think a Rawmarsh councillor presages on your glorious march to electoral domination?
Clearly it's not just Farage with a Kilroy Silk reality problem.
1) Note that immigration is good. *sage nodding from lefty* 2) Point out that homophobia is bad. *more righteous agreement* 3) Send link to survey highlighting Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia are the most homophobic nations in the EU (or will be after 1st July). *some burbling, crossed eyes* 4) Go to 1.
(Aside: I was surprised that Italy ranked so poorly compared to the rest of Western Europe. Influence of the Catholic Church, perhaps?)
Labour leader Ed Miliband has ruled out offering a referendum on the EU for the moment, but Labour For a Referendum argues that this will damage the party's prospects at the next election.
The group has 15 MPs as members, including Keith Vaz, Kate Hoey and John Cryer.
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has also indicated that he supports the idea of a referendum.
John Cridland draws the wrong analogy for an EU exit:
The CBI leader rejected claims that Britain could leave the EU but keep some of the benefits of membership. "There are some who say that we could retain access to the single market without being a member of the EU; that the UK could withdraw and have a relationship with the EU more akin to Norway's or Switzerland's. I'd urge them to really look at the detail."
What about Korea or Mexico's relationship?
However, it's good to see the mainstream media acknowledge something I've been saying for months:
Dissent outside Westminster is growing. Cridland took the unusual step of speaking publicly on an issue that divides the CBI
"Though leadership whispers are again circling around Ed Miliband, it’s hard to see anyone replacing him this side of an election. And once that election is out of the way, and assuming it is lost, by that stage Chuka Umunna will be back from the Balearics, and other candidates such as Stella Creasy and Rachel Reeves will be in a position to throw their hats in the ring.
But if Ed Miliband were to fall under a bus, or get ensnared in his Rubik's Snake, then Andy Burnham could well be the guy to watch."
Oh please please let it be Andy Burnham.
All the people mentioned in that article are much worse than Ed
And it is worth pointing out that Cameron remains quite popular with 38% support, despite the posts on here rarely saying anything positive.
Incorrect. That Cammie is more popular than the tory brand is noted on here quite a bit and on threads. It's one of those tricky facts his rebels have trouble getting their heads around.
I agree that it is frequently observed that Cameron is more popular than his party (unlike milliband or clegg) but my point is that his supporters are fairly silent on PB.
No, old boy, you wouldn't have any of the regulatory costs on domestic trade...
as well as a cash payout
That would be a tiny fraction of the existing payout.
He then tries this odd argument that I can't quite understand:
The second, cruder, sillier, reply is that since the UK has a negative trade balance with the EU we could "force" them to offer free trade by threatening trade protectionism.
How would we be threatening trade protectionism? We would be negotiating for the same free trade we had before. If protectionism came in, it would be because the EU rejected us... which is against their interest.
He then tries this one:
Then there is the strange argument that Britain needs to leave the EU in order to focus on rapid-growth emerging markets. But why?
The argument is that free trade helps trade with these rapid-growth markets. Precisely the same argument he just used for the necessity of keeping it with the EU!
That was before the wheels fell off over Farages BBC interview silly
Radical Scots independents forcing him to seek refuge in a boozer isnt going to play very well with your average UKIP supporter is it?
So now you have roughly the same kind of number of councillors as the Greens. Albeit with less MPs than the Greens can manage. Just how big a majority do you think a Rawmarsh councillor presages on your glorious march to electoral domination?
Clearly it's not just Farage with a Kilroy Silk reality problem.
In true PB tradition...
Ill bet you £50 at EVS that Greens dont have more MPs than UKIP after GE2015
except that I am giving you better odds than are available
That was before the wheels fell off over Farages BBC interview silly
Radical Scots independents forcing him to seek refuge in a boozer isnt going to play very well with your average UKIP supporter is it?
So now you have roughly the same kind of number of councillors as the Greens. Albeit with less MPs than the Greens can manage. Just how big a majority do you think a Rawmarsh councillor presages on your glorious march to electoral domination?
Clearly it's not just Farage with a Kilroy Silk reality problem.
The SNP had to start somewhere mick.
If you think they catapulted into power overnight you really haven't been paying attention. It took a long, long time and a slow steady buildup of a local powerbase with occasional big by-election wins and some big defeats along the way as well. UKIP have barely started on that road. The kippers are being handed their core issues on a plate by a panicking tory party, unpopular lib dems, a weak opposition and austerity. Farage doesnt even have to lift a finger in this situation to win a protest vote. If he can't turn this into MPs he never will.
That was before the wheels fell off over Farages BBC interview silly
Radical Scots independents forcing him to seek refuge in a boozer isnt going to play very well with your average UKIP supporter is it?
So now you have roughly the same kind of number of councillors as the Greens. Albeit with less MPs than the Greens can manage. Just how big a majority do you think a Rawmarsh councillor presages on your glorious march to electoral domination?
Clearly it's not just Farage with a Kilroy Silk reality problem.
To be fair to UKIP, at the beginning of the year it was rightly being pointed out that they hadn't managed to get any meaningful numbers of local councillors elected - in contrast to the Greens. They've overcome that hurdle now and they may well have the nous to get an MP or few elected in 2015.
Though it seems that they haven't been receiving the level of donations predicted by some on pb.
Which you don't understand or you would realise I don't bet with PB posters regardless of the issue.
So you're basically saying you think UKIP might get one MP or that the Greens might lose one MP. A bold vision of things to come. Power and an EU referendum can only be mere decades away.
Can a Lib Dem explain to me the Clegg-Cable position that free trade with the EU is absolutely essential to our exports to the EU (otherwise we'd lose three million jobs etc), yet free trade with emerging markets doesn't count for anything?
Vince Cable reckons we'll end up like Ukraine if we leave the EU:.
He doesn't, though, does he? That is (not for the first time) an idiotic headline some dumb (or worse) Guardian sub-editor has made up. It bears no relation to the article. I don't necessarily agree with it all (in particular not the bit about the City, which spectacularly misses the point), but it's a sensible and well-balanced article which states the Stay In case quite soberly.
Incidentally, LibDem-watchers should note that even Vince doesn't rule out renegotiation or a referendum. Talk of this being a deal-breaker for possible Con/LD coalition negotiations after 2015 overstates it.
Some probably do, some don't. What about families where one parent is the biological parent, and the other isn't? You seem to think that should be enough to count for a proper marriage. But as Neil points out, a lesbian couple can get a donor of one form or another. The reality here is that you are trying to twist and grasp to come up with some logical reasons for opposing something that you are emotionally uncomfortable with: men being romantically involved with other men. That's fine - it's probably evolutionary, and you shouldn't be made to feel a bigot over it. But it's really not something policy should be based on.
Yes, to me there just something about two people in love naturally creating a child that seems superior to any other form of union, but maybe the feeling they have by doing so is the privelige that I was speaking of, and the civil paperwork should be equal for everyone
I think Mick is right here. This story is part of the ongoing Tory strategy of taking responsibility for absolutely nothing. It is always someone else's fault: Labour, the LD's, the EU, immigrants, the poor and the vulnerable seem to be mostly to blame three year's in. Funnily enough, though, when the Tories look at what is happening in France, they blame a man who has been in power for much less time for everything. Go figure.
Seriously, I thought you were talking about Labour
No, old boy, you wouldn't have any of the regulatory costs on domestic trade...
as well as a cash payout
That would be a tiny fraction of the existing payout.
He then tries this odd argument that I can't quite understand:
The second, cruder, sillier, reply is that since the UK has a negative trade balance with the EU we could "force" them to offer free trade by threatening trade protectionism.
How would we be threatening trade protectionism? We would be negotiating for the same free trade we had before. If protectionism came in, it would be because the EU rejected us... which is against their interest.
He then tries this one:
Then there is the strange argument that Britain needs to leave the EU in order to focus on rapid-growth emerging markets. But why?
The argument is that free trade helps trade with these rapid-growth markets. Precisely the same argument he just used for the necessity of keeping it with the EU!
Don't be so cynical.
The Orange Bookers got crushed in Ukraine as well...
Which you don't understand or you would realise I don't bet with PB posters regardless of the issue.
So you're basically saying you think UKIP might get one MP or that the Greens might lose one MP. A bold vision of things to come. Power and an EU referendum can only be mere decades away.
All the coverage of the raids on oil majors that I have read indicates that it's a LIBOR-style commodity market issue rather than a price-at-pumps issue.
I'd have been more than a bit staggered if they had said it was.
Question is, who is the mystery cabinet minister?
"One Tory Cabinet minister is understood to have told colleagues that allowing the Coalition to break up would be a better outcome than continuing the partnership and failing to take firmer action over Europe. "
I can't see it being Gove. Hague? Nope. IDS... could be.
All the coverage of the raids on oil majors that I have read indicates that it's a LIBOR-style commodity market issue rather than a price-at-pumps issue.
I was more focussed on the the villaim of the week than the hero neil ;-)
Roger was right! He's just like Hitler! Look at those scared Bulgarian faces full of hate for him!
As I said (and I said at the time too) he should stick to the jovial and comical image. Rather than the petulant angry buffoon we heard in that interview. Better still he might think about using the one kipper who actually came close to winning a seat far more. Using Diane James when the polling is crystal clear that the kippers could do far better on the women's vote should have been self evident. That's the trouble with a one man band, Farage doesn't seem keen to let others into the spotlight.
Vince Cable reckons we'll end up like Ukraine if we leave the EU:.
He doesn't, though, does he? That is (not for the first time) an idiotic headline some dumb (or worse) Guardian sub-editor has made up. It bears no relation to the article. I don't necessarily agree with it all (in particular not the bit about the City, which spectacularly misses the point), but it's a sensible and well-balanced article which states the Stay In case quite soberly.
Incidentally, LibDem-watchers should note that even Vince doesn't rule out renegotiation or a referendum. Talk of this being a deal-breaker for possible Con/LD coalition negotiations after 2015 overstates it.
Fair point about the bad headline. But I still don't get his "threatening protectionism" thing. It's like saying "Steve reckons he can force Andrew to sell the CD for £5, otherwise he'll threaten him with not giving him the £5". How is that a sober argument?
Plus, I'm still waiting for an EU advocate to explain how free trade with the EU is critical to our trade with the EU, yet free trade with other countries doesn't matter for trade with them.
What no mention of the Scottish local elections of 2012 where the LDs dropped from 166 to 71 councillors.... and a 6.6% 1st preference vote?
Is that a joke post?
The same lib dem spinner claimed Rennie had been a triumph a year ago and just after the 2012 locals. I can assure you the lib dems are not making a huge comeback any time soon and it is the mere good fortune of the electoral cycle that has saved them this year.
This recent Ashcroft polling tells you just how effective Clegg's yes man Rennie is.
New poll suggests Lib Dems face Scottish mainland wipeout
According to the latest Ashcroft poll of marginal seats the Lib Dems are facing a total wipeout of MPs in mainland Scotland, with even Charlie Kennedy’s seat falling to the SNP.
Roger was right! He's just like Hitler! Look at those scared Bulgarian faces full of hate for him!
As I said (and I said at the time too) he should stick to the jovial and comical image. Rather than the petulant angry buffoon we heard in that interview. Better still he might think about using the one kipper who actually came close to winning a seat far more. Using Diane James when the polling is crystal clear that the kippers could do far better on the women's vote should have been self evident. That's the trouble with a one man band, Farage doesn't seem keen to let others into the spotlight.
True about James being a good vandidate, but the fact she stood not Farage undercuts your point about him being a one man band... many criticised him for not standing in Eastleigh
Plus, I'm still waiting for an EU advocate to explain how free trade with the EU is critical to our trade with the EU, yet free trade with other countries doesn't matter for trade with them.
Well, it's a fair point, but of course it works equally the other way round.
I think the slightly fuller answer relates to the size of the 'domestic' market. The theory is that one of the reasons the US (even before NAFTA) did better than most other economies was that the large size of the domestic market made it efficient to roll out products or services and get economies of scale. The idea is that the EU provides a similar advantage for European companies. Thus, it's not so much a question of free trade in the sense of ease of exporting, as having a large enough home market to act as a springboard from which you can export.
How true this is is hard to say, but I think that is the argument, and perhaps Germany's export success provides an indication that there is a real effect here, or can be.
Roger was right! He's just like Hitler! Look at those scared Bulgarian faces full of hate for him!
As I said (and I said at the time too) he should stick to the jovial and comical image. Rather than the petulant angry buffoon we heard in that interview. Better still he might think about using the one kipper who actually came close to winning a seat far more. Using Diane James when the polling is crystal clear that the kippers could do far better on the women's vote should have been self evident. That's the trouble with a one man band, Farage doesn't seem keen to let others into the spotlight.
True about James being a good vandidate, but the fact she stood not Farage undercuts your point about him being a one man band...
Not unless you seriously think he should stand in every single by-election? The reason it was raised in Eastleigh, rather than other seats, was that it was a perfect storm of opportunity what with Huhne. What's stopping Farage using James right now? You know the polling isn't lying and that winning over more women should be a priority. I would gently suggest that Farage is not best suited to that role.
All Voters Will Remember Is That The Tories Are Giving Them A Referendum - And That Labour Isn't (LabourList)
Three things are blindingly apparent this week.
The first is that the Tories are still hopelessly divided on Europe. Plus ça change.
The second is that Labour’s refusal to match the Tory referendum pledge leaves the party framed as the enemy of choice, refusing to give the public its say.
The third is that a week is a long time in politics and people will forget the messy parliamentary to and fro of the past few days but remember that the Tories are pledged to hold that referendum. And that Labour isn’t.
This is madness. Ed Miliband’s critique of managerial politics and its bureaucratic, top-down remoteness has always been spot on. Yet I can’t think of an issue where the governed and the governing are further apart than on Europe.
And it’s not just our membership of the EU. In voters’ minds, the reason we have so much immigration is because of the EU’s free movement of people. And any number of other grievances, real, exaggerated and imagined – are also attributed to Europe. It is a lightning rod for the malaise at the heart of British political life.
It’s no use railing against these misconceptions. The pro-European cause has failed mightily. It has always been an elite movement that has never managed to popularise – or even normalise – Britain’s membership of the EU. The referendum is a chance to draw that poison.
‘Ah’, goes the theory, ‘why invade on private grief? Keep well clear and let the Tories rip themselves to pieces’. Labour can sit back, look like a responsible party of government and toady up to all those business leaders who are horrified at the prospect of us inching towards the EU’s exit door. Ed will look like the statesman against Cameron’s desperate political hack.
This is wishful thinking. What will happen is that the Tories’ referendum pledge will reclaim ground lost to UKIP. Rather than looking prime ministerial, Ed will be left looking belligerent and elitist – every inch the product of our managerial political class. Europe and immigration will dominate next year’s European elections and possibly the 2015 general election as well. Labour will be flummoxed as its candidates try to explain why giving the public a say is such a bad idea.
And make no mistake, Cameron will get his renegotiation in due course. If EU leaders will bust a gut to save economically peripheral countries like Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus, then they will not countenance the UK – the second largest economy in the EU – walking away. Cameron will get enough concessions to sell to the electorate.
He can then plausibly head a ‘yes’ campaign on the terms of his successful renegotiation. All those business leaders who are today telling Ed Miliband what a dreadful mistake this referendum pledge is will in due course flock behind Cameron.
Labour will have taken the hit for denying the public a say – for the best of intentions in trying to preserve our EU membership – only for Cameron to sweep in and steal our thunder. The party’s current position makes no strategic sense either viewed as high principle or as low politics.
Roger was right! He's just like Hitler! Look at those scared Bulgarian faces full of hate for him!
As I said (and I said at the time too) he should stick to the jovial and comical image. Rather than the petulant angry buffoon we heard in that interview. Better still he might think about using the one kipper who actually came close to winning a seat far more. Using Diane James when the polling is crystal clear that the kippers could do far better on the women's vote should have been self evident. That's the trouble with a one man band, Farage doesn't seem keen to let others into the spotlight.
True about James being a good vandidate, but the fact she stood not Farage undercuts your point about him being a one man band...
Not unless you seriously think he should stand in every single by-election? The reason it was raised in Eastleigh, rather than other seats, was that it was a perfect storm of opportunity what with Huhne. What's stopping Farage using James right now? You know the polling isn't lying and that winning over more women should be a priority. I would gently suggest that Farage is not best suited to that role.
It's not unusual for an opposition party's leader to handle the bulk of the media appearances. They're usually the only one the public is familiar with.
True, but interesting to compare the the 2012 result (pretty similar turnout).
That was:
BNP 531 Conservative 328 Labour 1685
So Labour lost 38% of their vote, the Tories lost 62% (oh and BNP lost 85% of theirs). Again demonstrating a much greater effect of UKIP on the tories than labour vote levels. Who should be more concerned about this in the context of a general election ... answers on a postcard sent to Conservative Central office.
True, but interesting to compare the the 2012 result (pretty similar turnout).
That was:
BNP 531 Conservative 328 Labour 1685
So Labour lost 38% of their vote, the Tories lost 62% (oh and BNP lost 85% of theirs). Again demonstrating a much greater effect of UKIP on the tories than labour vote levels. Who should be more concerned about this in the context of a general election ... answers on a postcard sent to Conservative Central office.
But Labour still lost what should have been a safe seat.
Thomas Hoof @hooflaa @UKIP Cllrs in Lincolnshire have voted against a phony bill that was dressed as "antiracism" but in fact pro pc and forced multiculturalism ------------------ Joel Pearce @Joel_Pearce #UKIP councillors refuse to back anti-racism pledge because multiculturalism is 'fundamentally wrong' http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/UKIP-members-Lincolnshire-County-Council-refuse/story-19015707-detail/story.html#ixzz2TZEZ4J93 … -------------------- One of UKIPs policies is to stop the spread of multiculturalism, where every community stays in its little ghettos. A start has been made on Lincolnshire, where UKIP has 16new councillors. NOTICE HOW THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CON/LAB/LIB PARTY
True, but interesting to compare the the 2012 result (pretty similar turnout).
That was:
BNP 531 Conservative 328 Labour 1685
So Labour lost 38% of their vote, the Tories lost 62% (oh and BNP lost 85% of theirs). Again demonstrating a much greater effect of UKIP on the tories than labour vote levels. Who should be more concerned about this in the context of a general election ... answers on a postcard sent to Conservative Central office.
Interesting to put this through the "who got the bigger shock" test? I think its Labour, the main opposition party. Yes, Labour by a mile.
Comments
Clearly it's not just Farage with a Kilroy Silk reality problem.
Some probably do, some don't. What about families where one parent is the biological parent, and the other isn't? You seem to think that should be enough to count for a proper marriage. But as Neil points out, a lesbian couple can get a donor of one form or another. The reality here is that you are trying to twist and grasp to come up with some logical reasons for opposing something that you are emotionally uncomfortable with: men being romantically involved with other men. That's fine - it's probably evolutionary, and you shouldn't be made to feel a bigot over it. But it's really not something policy should be based on.
1) Note that immigration is good. *sage nodding from lefty*
2) Point out that homophobia is bad. *more righteous agreement*
3) Send link to survey highlighting Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia are the most homophobic nations in the EU (or will be after 1st July). *some burbling, crossed eyes*
4) Go to 1.
(Aside: I was surprised that Italy ranked so poorly compared to the rest of Western Europe. Influence of the Catholic Church, perhaps?)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22542083
Labour leader Ed Miliband has ruled out offering a referendum on the EU for the moment, but Labour For a Referendum argues that this will damage the party's prospects at the next election.
The group has 15 MPs as members, including Keith Vaz, Kate Hoey and John Cryer.
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has also indicated that he supports the idea of a referendum.
The CBI leader rejected claims that Britain could leave the EU but keep some of the benefits of membership. "There are some who say that we could retain access to the single market without being a member of the EU; that the UK could withdraw and have a relationship with the EU more akin to Norway's or Switzerland's. I'd urge them to really look at the detail."
What about Korea or Mexico's relationship?
However, it's good to see the mainstream media acknowledge something I've been saying for months:
Dissent outside Westminster is growing. Cridland took the unusual step of speaking publicly on an issue that divides the CBI
I agree that it is frequently observed that Cameron is more popular than his party (unlike milliband or clegg) but my point is that his supporters are fairly silent on PB.
Even ALP rarely sings his praises.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/16/eu-if-outs-get-their-way-ukraine
Riiiiight...
He also trots out the normal debunked arguments:
keeps all the regulatory costs of the EU
No, old boy, you wouldn't have any of the regulatory costs on domestic trade...
as well as a cash payout
That would be a tiny fraction of the existing payout.
He then tries this odd argument that I can't quite understand:
The second, cruder, sillier, reply is that since the UK has a negative trade balance with the EU we could "force" them to offer free trade by threatening trade protectionism.
How would we be threatening trade protectionism? We would be negotiating for the same free trade we had before. If protectionism came in, it would be because the EU rejected us... which is against their interest.
He then tries this one:
Then there is the strange argument that Britain needs to leave the EU in order to focus on rapid-growth emerging markets. But why?
The argument is that free trade helps trade with these rapid-growth markets. Precisely the same argument he just used for the necessity of keeping it with the EU!
Ill bet you £50 at EVS that Greens dont have more MPs than UKIP after GE2015
except that I am giving you better odds than are available
It took a long, long time and a slow steady buildup of a local powerbase with occasional big by-election wins and some big defeats along the way as well. UKIP have barely started on that road. The kippers are being handed their core issues on a plate by a panicking tory party, unpopular lib dems, a weak opposition and austerity. Farage doesnt even have to lift a finger in this situation to win a protest vote. If he can't turn this into MPs he never will.
Anyway, did find a comment that seemed rather popular
"In a sometimes dishonest profession Nick Clegg stands out consistently as a singularly dishonest man. "
Discuss
Though it seems that they haven't been receiving the level of donations predicted by some on pb.
It would be annoying if they got 6+ as you could have taken 6/4 1+ but if the middles are usually the value in any bets like these
So you're basically saying you think UKIP might get one MP or that the Greens might lose one MP. A bold vision of things to come. Power and an EU referendum can only be mere decades away.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22567099
Incidentally, LibDem-watchers should note that even Vince doesn't rule out renegotiation or a referendum. Talk of this being a deal-breaker for possible Con/LD coalition negotiations after 2015 overstates it.
HERO: Robert Halfon, Tory MP for Harlow
VILLAIN: The angry Edinburgh mob
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/article4751667.ece
The Orange Bookers got crushed in Ukraine as well...
Maybe he should stick to his Alan Partridge style comedy Bulgaria routine?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN9CggUg0eU
Downing Street has insisted that the Coalition will not break up early, despite growing unhappiness among Conservative ministers and backbenchers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10063191/Coalition-will-not-break-up-early-insists-No-10.html
Question is, who is the mystery cabinet minister?
"One Tory Cabinet minister is understood to have told colleagues that allowing the Coalition to break up would be a better outcome than continuing the partnership and failing to take firmer action over Europe. "
I can't see it being Gove. Hague? Nope. IDS... could be.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/willie-rennie-highlights-of-his-first-two-years-as-scottish-liberal-democrat-leader-34557.html
What no mention of the Scottish local elections of 2012 where the LDs dropped from 166 to 71 councillors.... and a 6.6% 1st preference vote?
We need our heroes!
Plus, I'm still waiting for an EU advocate to explain how free trade with the EU is critical to our trade with the EU, yet free trade with other countries doesn't matter for trade with them.
The same lib dem spinner claimed Rennie had been a triumph a year ago and just after the 2012 locals. I can assure you the lib dems are not making a huge comeback any time soon and it is the mere good fortune of the electoral cycle that has saved them this year.
This recent Ashcroft polling tells you just how effective Clegg's yes man Rennie is. It's just one poll and it's by no means the last word but anyone thinking it bodes well for Rennie or Clegg is being wildly optimistic.
I think the slightly fuller answer relates to the size of the 'domestic' market. The theory is that one of the reasons the US (even before NAFTA) did better than most other economies was that the large size of the domestic market made it efficient to roll out products or services and get economies of scale. The idea is that the EU provides a similar advantage for European companies. Thus, it's not so much a question of free trade in the sense of ease of exporting, as having a large enough home market to act as a springboard from which you can export.
How true this is is hard to say, but I think that is the argument, and perhaps Germany's export success provides an indication that there is a real effect here, or can be.
Three things are blindingly apparent this week.
The first is that the Tories are still hopelessly divided on Europe. Plus ça change.
The second is that Labour’s refusal to match the Tory referendum pledge leaves the party framed as the enemy of choice, refusing to give the public its say.
The third is that a week is a long time in politics and people will forget the messy parliamentary to and fro of the past few days but remember that the Tories are pledged to hold that referendum. And that Labour isn’t.
This is madness. Ed Miliband’s critique of managerial politics and its bureaucratic, top-down remoteness has always been spot on. Yet I can’t think of an issue where the governed and the governing are further apart than on Europe.
And it’s not just our membership of the EU. In voters’ minds, the reason we have so much immigration is because of the EU’s free movement of people. And any number of other grievances, real, exaggerated and imagined – are also attributed to Europe. It is a lightning rod for the malaise at the heart of British political life.
It’s no use railing against these misconceptions. The pro-European cause has failed mightily. It has always been an elite movement that has never managed to popularise – or even normalise – Britain’s membership of the EU. The referendum is a chance to draw that poison.
‘Ah’, goes the theory, ‘why invade on private grief? Keep well clear and let the Tories rip themselves to pieces’. Labour can sit back, look like a responsible party of government and toady up to all those business leaders who are horrified at the prospect of us inching towards the EU’s exit door. Ed will look like the statesman against Cameron’s desperate political hack.
This is wishful thinking. What will happen is that the Tories’ referendum pledge will reclaim ground lost to UKIP. Rather than looking prime ministerial, Ed will be left looking belligerent and elitist – every inch the product of our managerial political class. Europe and immigration will dominate next year’s European elections and possibly the 2015 general election as well. Labour will be flummoxed as its candidates try to explain why giving the public a say is such a bad idea.
And make no mistake, Cameron will get his renegotiation in due course. If EU leaders will bust a gut to save economically peripheral countries like Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus, then they will not countenance the UK – the second largest economy in the EU – walking away. Cameron will get enough concessions to sell to the electorate.
He can then plausibly head a ‘yes’ campaign on the terms of his successful renegotiation. All those business leaders who are today telling Ed Miliband what a dreadful mistake this referendum pledge is will in due course flock behind Cameron.
Labour will have taken the hit for denying the public a say – for the best of intentions in trying to preserve our EU membership – only for Cameron to sweep in and steal our thunder. The party’s current position makes no strategic sense either viewed as high principle or as low politics.
"Labour will have taken the hit for denying the public a say"
That assumes that the public cares less. what are the chances that an EU referendum will attract more voters than the referendums for Mayors?
About 10% voted if I remember which means either that the other 90% don't care less or alternatively they're happy to let the 10% speak for them.
That was:
BNP 531
Conservative 328
Labour 1685
So Labour lost 38% of their vote, the Tories lost 62% (oh and BNP lost 85% of theirs). Again demonstrating a much greater effect of UKIP on the tories than labour vote levels. Who should be more concerned about this in the context of a general election ... answers on a postcard sent to Conservative Central office.
@UKIP Cllrs in Lincolnshire have voted against a phony bill that was dressed as "antiracism" but in fact pro pc and forced multiculturalism
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Joel Pearce @Joel_Pearce
#UKIP councillors refuse to back anti-racism pledge because multiculturalism is 'fundamentally wrong' http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/UKIP-members-Lincolnshire-County-Council-refuse/story-19015707-detail/story.html#ixzz2TZEZ4J93 …
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One of UKIPs policies is to stop the spread of multiculturalism, where every community stays in its little ghettos. A start has been made on Lincolnshire, where UKIP has 16new councillors.
NOTICE HOW THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CON/LAB/LIB PARTY
I reckon the tories are more united on Europe than they have been for decades. The party is overwhelmingly sceptic to some degree.
Trouble is, nobody has bothered to tell the leadership.