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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections Preview : July 10th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited July 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections Preview : July 10th 2014

Penistone West on Barnsley (Lab Defence)
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 53, Independents 5, Conservatives 4 (Labour overall majority of 44)
Result of ward in last electoral cycle
2011: Conservative 1,836 (47%), Labour 1,298 (33%), Independent 558 (14%), British National Party 195 (5%) (Con HOLD)
2012:

Read the full story here


Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    First?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Celebrated children's author Allan Ahlberg has turned down a lifetime achievement award after discovering it was sponsored by Amazon.

    In a letter to the Bookseller, he said he felt compelled to decline the honour because of Amazon's tax arrangements.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-28244859


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lab gain in Cornwall. Surely.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    Yougov were only closest to the Ukip score if you ignore the effect of the various spoiler parties.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Busy in here tonight. Can barely move for the heaving bodies.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Many thanks Harry for this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/

    Will he come riding to the rescue?

    Is there something of the knight about him?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    MarkHopkins said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/

    Will he come riding to the rescue?

    Is there something of the knight about him?
    Oh I hope so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 15s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead drops one to three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead drops one to three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Will be back up to Labour 7% for Sunday Times.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited July 2014
    Decent evidence now to suggest true lead unchanged at around 4% - and that the three polls showing leads of 7% were all just random variation.

    YouGov leads so far this week: 3, 7, 4, 3. Average = 4.25
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    What are the odds?

    Seagull photo finish: Bird caught on camera at Brighton racecourse

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/28244486

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    MikeL said:

    Decent evidence now to suggest true lead unchanged at around 4% - and that the three polls showing leads of 7% were all just random variation.

    YouGov leads so far this week: 3, 7, 4, 3. Average = 4.25

    Tomorrow's Populus will be interesting.

    I'm hopeful we'll get the Guardian/ICM poll next Tuesday.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG EICIPM 341/266/17/26
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    MarkHopkins said:

    What are the odds?

    Seagull photo finish: Bird caught on camera at Brighton racecourse

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/28244486

    A seagull? In Brighton?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited July 2014
    Snigger.... 7th heaven didn't last long for the frothing PBreds.

    Too many older Tories on holiday with russian oligarchs before the school hols arrive?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Lloris!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG EICIPM 341/266/17/26

    EICICPMHINDPM surely?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Lloris!!!!!!!!!!!

    Hopefully Bobby Sol will also sign a contract extension
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG EICIPM 341/266/17/26

    EICICPMHINDPM surely?
    HINNDPM apparently
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    bigjohnowls said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Tonights YG EICIPM 341/266/17/26

    EICICPMHINDPM surely?
    HINNDPM apparently
    Not 100% crap then.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Lloris!!!!!!!!!!!

    Hopefully Bobby Sol will also sign a contract extension
    One can but dream.

    I went on the Spurs website today - well, who doesn't - they had match highlights dated 9th July 2014 vs LA Galaxy as their latest posting - damn I thought, I'd missed that pre-season tour starting already so clicked on the video to see who was playing and nearly had a connery when the first highlight showed Gareth Bale scoring....

    For a crazy fleeting mad nano-second I was in lilywhite heaven.... as ever, it didn't last long.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Lloris!!!!!!!!!!!

    Hopefully Bobby Sol will also sign a contract extension


    For a crazy fleeting mad nano-second I was in lilywhite heaven.... as ever, it didn't last long.
    You can get tablets to stop that problem happening.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Pointless Letters ‏@pointlesslettrs 57m

    The Daily Star shows how to go from "really bad page layout" to "potential diplomatic incident" in one easy step.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsNZ3q3IcAAet0d.jpg
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited July 2014
    As we are into Nighthawks can I just mention that Banco Espirito Santo, the Portuguese Bank whose shares crashed today, was a player in WW2 espionage. At least some of its top brass were serious Nazi sympathisers. It was used for money laundering by a corrupt Abwehr officer (who also happened to be a British spy) and as a post office for a German spy in England (who in fact was also a British agent) to pass coded messages to the Abwehr .

    The Bank's other claim to fame was that my sister had an account with it for many years.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    More Eurozone Bad News

    Even though economic data released today was good for the US (benefit claimants down) and China (exports nudge up), worse than expected news from France and the Netherlands have knocked global stock markets.

    French industrial production contracted at a 1.7% month-on-month pace in May, according to INSEE.

    The consensus estimate was for an increase of 0.2%.

    Manufacturing sector output was also 2.3% down (consensus: 0%) but against April, energy output increased by 1.3% but that in construction was off by 0.7%.

    In parallel, a separate report showed that industrial production in the Netherlands fell by 1.9% month-on-month in May (consensus: 0.3%)

    Now although both Germany's and the UK's most recent production and manufacturing figures disappointed, the story was of growth less than expected not contraction. Today's figures show France's economy is not only contracting but doing so at an accelerated rate.

    Not good news. Not good news at all.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AveryLP
    There is however fantastic news for house owners here though?

    "OBR says only 'historically unprecedented' housebuilding activity can prevent loan-to-income ratios rising year after year"

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/10/house-price-inflation-to-outstrip-pay-rises-for-years
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    As we are into Nighthawks can I just mention that Banco Espirito Santo, the Portuguese Bank whose shares crashed today, was a player in WW2 espionage. At least some of its top brass were serious Nazi sympathisers. It was used for money laundering by a corrupt Abwehr officer (who also happened to be a British spy) and as a post office for a German spy in England (who in fact was also a British agent) to pass coded messages to the Abwehr .

    The Bank's other claim to fame was that my sister had an account with it for many years.

    The interest payment default by the Espirito Santo Financial Group (ESFG), which owns BES, was the second shock to the markets today hitting even well capitalised bank shares across Europe.

    A knock nn effect was to see peripheral Eurozone bond yields rise again by signiicant amounts: the yield on benchmark 10-year notes rising 16 basis points to 3.92%.

    And Hollande wants all EU countries to borrow funds to help the unreformed Eurozone giants (France and Italy) to grow their way out of their 'triple dip' downturn.

    Forget about Nazi sympathisers, Mr. Llama, it looks like socialist sympathisers are far more dangerous today.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited July 2014
    Interesting to note that the continued cap on pay increases for public sector workers (till 2018), by the coalition does not include MP's, who will pick up an 11% increase next year.
    All in it together?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @AveryLP
    There is however fantastic news for house owners here though?

    "OBR says only 'historically unprecedented' housebuilding activity can prevent loan-to-income ratios rising year after year"

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/10/house-price-inflation-to-outstrip-pay-rises-for-years

    It is Portuguese bankers and French industrialists fleeing the impact of socialist governments that is causing the house price boom and shortage of stock available for sale to us Brits, Smarmy.

    Can we ban socialism?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Minor correction, Harry, Cheshire West and Chester was formed out of Chester, Ellesmere Port & Vale Royal. It is Cheshire East that was the merger of Crewe/Nantwich, Congleton & Macclesfield. The Boughton ward result will give us some idea of how Labour are placed to take back the Chester seat which the Tories won by around 3,500 in 2010
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited July 2014
    @AveryLP
    "It is Portuguese bankers and French industrialists fleeing the impact of socialist governments that is causing the house price boom"

    That would also explain why our export/import balance is well below projections?
    You have found the reason that has puzzled many of our economists today, award yourself a smug pat on the back you genius.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Smarmeron said:

    @AveryLP
    "It is Portuguese bankers and French industrialists fleeing the impact of socialist governments that is causing the house price boom"

    That would also explain why our export/import balance is well below projections?
    You have found the reason that has puzzled many of our economists today, award yourself a smug pat on the back you genius.

    We're importing more socialists than we're exporting?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    Oh, if only that were true, but no, I refer to our trade deficit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pointless Letters ‏@pointlesslettrs 57m

    The Daily Star shows how to go from "really bad page layout" to "potential diplomatic incident" in one easy step.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsNZ3q3IcAAet0d.jpg

    Do they not have subs or anyone who checks these things anymore? That's an absolute howler.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @AveryLP
    "It is Portuguese bankers and French industrialists fleeing the impact of socialist governments that is causing the house price boom"

    That would also explain why our export/import balance is well below projections?
    You have found the reason that has puzzled many of our economists today, award yourself a smug pat on the back you genius.

    We're importing more socialists than we're exporting?
    It's a concern when you import the crooks of europe, however if you limit or ban their participation in the british political process it should be ok, their corrupt influence would be checked.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    So taking initiative from Pulpstar, I've made a googledoc to keep track of the various PB seat predictions:

    http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

    I think I have all the previous predictions going back to April, but if I have missed any let me know. Updates as an when the various prognosticators prognosticate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/

    He'd be a good choice.

    He's the only competent leader the Conservatives have had since 1990.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RobD said:

    So taking initiative from Pulpstar, I've made a googledoc to keep track of the various PB seat predictions:

    http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

    I think I have all the previous predictions going back to April, but if I have missed any let me know. Updates as an when the various prognosticators prognosticate.

    I've got previous predictions, but they are buried in my 7000 comments >< !
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2014
    AveryLP said:

    More Eurozone Bad News

    Even though economic data released today was good for the US (benefit claimants down) and China (exports nudge up), worse than expected news from France and the Netherlands have knocked global stock markets.

    French industrial production contracted at a 1.7% month-on-month pace in May, according to INSEE.

    The consensus estimate was for an increase of 0.2%.

    Manufacturing sector output was also 2.3% down (consensus: 0%) but against April, energy output increased by 1.3% but that in construction was off by 0.7%.

    In parallel, a separate report showed that industrial production in the Netherlands fell by 1.9% month-on-month in May (consensus: 0.3%)

    Now although both Germany's and the UK's most recent production and manufacturing figures disappointed, the story was of growth less than expected not contraction. Today's figures show France's economy is not only contracting but doing so at an accelerated rate.

    Not good news. Not good news at all.

    Constantly bailing out banks doesn't solve the currency problem that is the euro's continued existence.
    As long as the euro exists the continent will always be a whisker from collapse due to it not being an optimal common currency area.
    Though it could take a long time, it took 15 years of constant economic crisis in the east block for it to collapse, the eurozone is just in year 6.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dems have gained Cornwall Illogan - no figures yet
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/

    He'd be a good choice.

    He's the only competent leader the Conservatives have had since 1990.
    He has a plus for the tories and that is that he is no longer an MP, so no byelection to fret about UKIP.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Illogan Lib Dem 277 Meb K 217 Con 215 UKIP 156 Lab 129 Lib 121 Green 50
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/

    He'd be a good choice.

    He's the only competent leader the Conservatives have had since 1990.
    He has a plus for the tories and that is that he is no longer an MP, so no byelection to fret about UKIP.
    And what job would the good Mr. Juncker offer Howard? OIC paper clips I expect. Even then the EU parliament may reject him.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MarkSenior said:

    Illogan Lib Dem 277 Meb K 217 Con 215 UKIP 156 Lab 129 Lib 121 Green 50

    What a fractured field.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Illogan Lib Dem 277 Meb K 217 Con 215 UKIP 156 Lab 129 Lib 121 Green 50

    What a fractured field.
    There were forecasts of Con hold , MK gain , UKIP gain and even Liberal gain but noone forecast a Lib Dem gain !!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Howard would be a good choice, a heavyweight eurosceptic, but intelligent and not prone to rants, as a former party leader and Shadow Chancellor and Home Secretary he is heavyweight enough to get a big job

    This Week live from Edinburgh in front of a studio audience
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Illogan Lib Dem 277 Meb K 217 Con 215 UKIP 156 Lab 129 Lib 121 Green 50

    What a fractured field.
    There were forecasts of Con hold , MK gain , UKIP gain and even Liberal gain but noone forecast a Lib Dem gain !!!!!
    It might become the new spanish inquisition joke.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    It is surely time for the Lib Dem/Liberal split in the West Country to be sorted!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    slade said:

    It is surely time for the Lib Dem/Liberal split in the West Country to be sorted!

    It is only Paul Holmes in Illogan

    Cheshire West Boughton Lab hold Lab 614 Con 469 UKIP 131 Green 86 Lib Dem 70
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    These events are part of modern party funding, but no matter the party, I still think of them as tawdry.

    Celebrities pledge £500,000 to Labour at party fundraiser

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/10/labour-party-fundraiser-500-thousand-antony-gormley
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    RobD said:

    So taking initiative from Pulpstar, I've made a googledoc to keep track of the various PB seat predictions:

    http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

    I think I have all the previous predictions going back to April, but if I have missed any let me know. Updates as an when the various prognosticators prognosticate.

    Good stuff, but I would query the value of breaking down and trying to compare "Others", since most predictors don't really attempt to do this, so one can't really compare like with like.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    I think we are bound to see quite a shift in Labour's favour from Stephen Fisher tomorrow with several pollsters showing a 2%-3% increase in their share of the vote and a similar decrease in the case of the Tories. My guess is that the two main parties will be within 10 seats of each other in his latest projection.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    peter_from_putney said:

    RobD said:

    So taking initiative from Pulpstar, I've made a googledoc to keep track of the various PB seat predictions:

    http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

    I think I have all the previous predictions going back to April, but if I have missed any let me know. Updates as an when the various prognosticators prognosticate.

    Good stuff, but I would query the value of breaking down and trying to compare "Others", since most predictors don't really attempt to do this, so one can't really compare like with like.
    Only did that for completeness. The H column other is probably the most comparative.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    So taking initiative from Pulpstar, I've made a googledoc to keep track of the various PB seat predictions:

    http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

    I think I have all the previous predictions going back to April, but if I have missed any let me know. Updates as an when the various prognosticators prognosticate.

    I've got previous predictions, but they are buried in my 7000 comments >< !
    I shall try to find them in your posting history!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Cheshire Winnington Lab hold

    Lab 525 Con 418 UKIP 307 Lib Dem 80
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    O/T

    Is OGH about to land a winning bet at huge odds?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2688194/Howard-running-Britains-EU-Commissioner-Former-Tory-leader-not-ruled-Cameron.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/10/whos-who-britain-legal-offshore-tax-avoidance-james-dyson

    Seems to be quite an important name missing off that list...The Guardian...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited July 2014
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/10/whos-who-britain-legal-offshore-tax-avoidance-james-dyson

    Seems to be quite an important name missing off that list...The Guardian...

    Good luck to all of them. Tax is theft, avoid it by whatever means legally possible.
    Maybe the Guardian should print the names of everyone who saves in an ISA legally as well.

    Edit - rotten old hypocrites the Grauniad be
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    HurstLlama said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some wise fellow tipped Michael Howard at 25/1

    Michael Howard: Those who have discussed the appointment with senior No. 10 figures in recent days believe that there is momentum building behind Cameron’s predecessor as Tory leader.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/the-great-brussels-steeplechase-runners-and-riders-to-be-britains-next-european-commissioner/

    He'd be a good choice.

    He's the only competent leader the Conservatives have had since 1990.
    He has a plus for the tories and that is that he is no longer an MP, so no byelection to fret about UKIP.
    And what job would the good Mr. Juncker offer Howard? OIC paper clips I expect. Even then the EU parliament may reject him.
    Assuming they're going to end up with a British conservative one way or another I'd have thought they'd be reasonably happy with someone like Howard who's clearly at the end of his career and can get on with the job without grandstanding or worrying about what the British papers are going to say about things.

    Of the people suggested Howard seems the least likely to get the paperclips portfolio, with the exception of William Hague.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    AveryLP said:

    More Eurozone Bad News


    French industrial production contracted at a 1.7% month-on-month pace in May, according to INSEE.

    The consensus estimate was for an increase of 0.2%.

    Manufacturing sector output was also 2.3% down (consensus: 0%) but against April, energy output increased by 1.3% but that in construction was off by 0.7%.

    In parallel, a separate report showed that industrial production in the Netherlands fell by 1.9% month-on-month in May (consensus: 0.3%)

    Now although both Germany's and the UK's most recent production and manufacturing figures disappointed, the story was of growth less than expected not contraction. Today's figures show France's economy is not only contracting but doing so at an accelerated rate.

    Not good news. Not good news at all.

    Constantly bailing out banks doesn't solve the currency problem that is the euro's continued existence.
    As long as the euro exists the continent will always be a whisker from collapse due to it not being an optimal common currency area.
    Though it could take a long time, it took 15 years of constant economic crisis in the east block for it to collapse, the eurozone is just in year 6.
    Avery, what were the UK manufacturing figures for last month ?
This discussion has been closed.