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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New TNS-BMRB IndyRef poll finds big fall in don’t knows but the overall picture remains
The pollster, like YouGov, has tended to show YES in a poorer position than some of the other firms and asks a slightly different voting intention question. Rather than the conventional “how would you vote tomorrow” TNS asks what people are planning to do on September 18th.
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Good news for the unionists (although some would suggest that was complacency)
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/5-poll.jpg
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/10-poll.jpg
Tick tock .....
On UK Economy (Good/Bad) improves by +6
Household economy over next 12 months (better/worse) - improves by +5
Last year 65% went on a family holiday (42 overseas/23 in UK)
Expectations this year are 62 (38/24)
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/5-pollat2010generalelection.jpg
Looking a bit more at the party leader's well/badly in normally strong Labour areas:
18-24s: DC is -6; EdM is -24
London: DC is -11, EdM is - 46
North: DC is -18; EdM is -38
Scotland: DC is -33, EdM is -28
Can I suggest you start the vertical axis at 20 or 25? Would make it easier to read for people (like me) with dodgy eyes
2010 LD split is Cons:16; LAB: 31; LD:27; UKIP: 13; Green 11
So LD is retaining about 25-32% of its 2010 vote and is the main source for the Green VI.
Over the last two weeks the LD to Con has increased by about 50%.
I've got to say that I feel very sorry for him. According to the newspaper, the story is that he went on a blind date, they went back to his flat together, and when they were at his flat he raped her.
I don't see that there is anyway that this could possibly be proved assuming she has kept no evidence from the time? It's just word against word. But his reputation gets absolutely trashed in the process.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2681909/Leon-Brittan-quizzed-teen-rape-claim-Ex-Home-Secretary-accused-attacking-student-flat.html
Its rather reassuring that Labour's strategy is so poor as are their spinners.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/baldwins-blunder/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10948384/Criticising-someones-height-should-be-socially-unacceptable-says-John-Bercow.html
They have maybe 15-20 certain strongholds
Another 15-20 where their strength is predicated on tactical voting which implodes at a low national %
The rest are just gains made due to high national % (relatively)
20 is probably the number for their 'gimmes' - anything under 9% and I can't see them much above 25 seats
Ah, Bercow. The noisiest midget in all the land.
I wonder if this would affect a chapter in my WIP. The protagonist, Sir Edric, has an equal opportunities approach to contempt (he has it for pretty much everyone who isn't him), including taking the piss out of someone for being shorter than him. Under the politically correct bullshit Bercow espouses, would this be permitted?
Ought I to be hauled before the oompa-loompa kangaroo court?
From what I understand, Bercow is not popular in Westminster as he is seen to be partisan, that's why he is given short shrift by so many in the HOC..and why some others belittle him.
It is a serious point, though. We've got to be allowed to take the piss. There is nothing more British than that, except perhaps royalty, drunkenness and mockery of the French (although I'd put the latter under the wider umbrella of piss-taking). Whether it's balding, shortness, skinniness [and those are just the ones that apply to me, to a greater or lesser extent] or something else, the sentence 'I am offended' does not constitute a valid argument against a joke.
As I recall UKIP voters left earliest & LDs the latest.
As for comedy.....
A person, a person and a person walked, wheeled and hopped into a generic establishment offering a full range of legal beverages to suit all tastes.
'Wheres the soap?'
Oddschecker this morning shows Argentina, Germany and Brazil as three-way joint favourites, best-priced at 11/4 to win the World Cup, with the Netherlands the "outsider" at 4/1.
After a month of competition it would appear, predictably some would say, that the two best European sides along with the two best South American sides remain in the competition.
For those who believe that Americans understand such matters (stop laughing at the back), Nat Silver's 538.com calculates that Brazil has a 54% chance of winning, way ahead of Argentina on 19%, followed by The Netherlands on 14%, with Germany bringing up the rear on 13%.
In terms of betting on the winning continent, Ladbrokes offers the best price at 4/5 on a South American win, while sportingbet offers 11/10 against one or other of the European sides lifting the trophy.
You pays your money .....
What to do about it? What to do about it that maintains public trust? What to do about it that does not prejudice prosecution?
Deft footwork ahead.
People have every right to be offended. And other people have every right not to give a damn.
I have now incorporated the LibDem and UKIP numbers into my charts, and have played with the formatting, which will hopefully make them more readable.
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/5-poll-4party-060714.jpg
http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae304/Gadfly_bucket/10-poll-4party-060714.jpg
But even allowing for that my own purely subjective assessment is that, if anything, there is something of a lull in campaigning in the referendum. Things seem much quieter than they were in the Spring and you just have to wonder if people are either bored or think the result is looking inevitable. I suppose it is also possible that spending limits coming into effect has had some effect.
Is this really it? I would be relieved but I don't believe that there are not going to be several more twists in the road before September.
Ed is crap is PM 10 Months 1 day to go
I think Bercow's problem isn't bias per se it's that he tries so desperately to appear authoritative which means he often injects himself unnecessarily or more often counter productively. Being authoritative is something you shouldn't need to work at, if you have to try you've already failed.
Not sure who is/was worse. Bercow or Martin. Its a close call. Think of the other Speakers. Lord Tonypandy, Betty Boothroyd Bernard Wetherill. All were respected by all sides.
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Bercow isn't. That's down to him.. He shouts because he is politically impotent and has failed to gain the respect that others did
If this explodes in the next few months, It can't be bad for UKIP. They were not there at the time.
Martin was exceptional as he was plainly never up to the job being stupid as well as partisan and he treated members of the House with no respect. I think Cameron has decided Bercow is something that he just needs to put up with and he is probably right. Hopefully Bercow can be eased out in the next Parliament with no permanent damage done to the Office which is far more important than he will ever be.
http://www.unz.com/article/the-risk-of-a-ukraine-bloodbath/
Presumably our government isn't just blindly going a long with US foreign policy no matter how politically and morally wrong it is.
What I was suggesting in my previous post was a chart showing Labour's share of the vote over the 12 months leading up to the 2010 GE, against which you would then be able to chart and therefore compare the Tories' progress over the 12 months leading up to the 2015 GE.
In effect this would measure the incumbency element which actually occurred with Labour with what might similarly take effect with the Tories.
Btw and excuse my ignorance, but I'm not familiar with "photobucket" - is this a means of preparing and presenting data, photographs, etc without actually needing to own and maintain one's own website?
Incidentally, I think Bercow behaves as he does (the shouting and berating) so that he gets on the telly.
Don't let it build up. If it gets covered up or people moved upwards you'll end up with a group coagulated at the top.
Assuming most countries are the same international institutions like the UN must be swarming.
There are clear risks in this strategy, not least because Putin has put himself in something of a corner with his earlier bullish comments about supporting Russians abroad but a restoration of sovereignty combined with the sort of devolution previously agreed in the International talks would offer the best chance of a way forward. The risk of doing nothing is that the status quo simply becomes a fait accompli with Ukraine effectively broken up.
In the re-run Buckingham election would Bercow have been the Tory candidate?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10949066/David-Cameron-to-announce-billions-for-local-growth.html
So if it was lost as part of a cover up of Tory nastiness why would a Labour government 'lose' it?
There were certainly some dodgy Labour career MPs in the 80's and 90's.
The Labour doyens' PIE stuff has been opened and then buried again recently.
So some of the jumping to conclusions might be premature.
The age of the top layer of UKIP suggests even they may not be excluded. So as it might damage all parties in some way expect a lot of huffing and puffing but I am not sure there can be much else except a flood of claims about being a victim. Real evidence may be very hard to find.
The final 4 weeks of the Indy Ref campaign will be frantic and filled with bile and vitriol as both sides become increasing frantic about last minute swings.
Photobucket is effectively a pin-board to which I can upload photographs that I wish to share, either individually or as albums. I have only really used it for posting images to forums such as PB. It should be possible to place the image directly within my post, but having practised on a couple of old threads, I cannot get it to work with Vanilla.
Given that this is public sector money with the added spin of EU involvement and bureaucracy I of course immediately recognise that some of the money will be wasted, some will be spent on vanity projects and some will be spent on ludicrous white elephants but hopefully the balance can create the opportunities for growth by overcoming bottlenecks, poor transport and lack of adequately trained staff.
Heseltine is right that local decision making will be key to the mix of the good and the bad.
The other plus factor for Fed is that he'll have the crowd with him.
I'm on!
Although I do recall some discussion about this and the balance of opinion was that, in the foremost democratic institution of a supposedly democratic country, for there to be a contested election would somehow be a disaster.
It does appear that the SNP seats are mostly in the areas of lowest religious affiliation. It seems that the Pope and King Billy are allied once more...
PS: I am in Ayrshire, yesterdays grand meeting was in Glasgow. You will see it in all its glory in September as they are having a Grand March in Edinburgh just before the vote, to support Better Together. Good overtime for the police that day and will be an eye opener for tourists.
It does look as if the Cleggasm affected all three parties, but took most votes off the Tories. With the Indyref looking a damp squib, the debates may be the only gamechanger left. I think Ed will do well at these, it is well within his comfort zone compared with baby kissing and sarnies.
YiouGov Trackers of GB & DC 2007-2010
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-VotingTrends-2005
YG VI Tracker 2005-2010 incl 2005 and 2010 GE results